 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning market kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good Wednesday morning, everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN just after 9 a.m. Eastern time. We got about 24 minutes to go until the start of trading and you got markets in negative territory just off the lows. You get the S&Ps, negative by 12 points right now. That's about a 30% of the red trading at $39.28, NASDAQ 100. You're negative by 48 points. That's about 410% in the red. You're trading $11,722. We were higher overnight. We started trading lower, about 3 in the morning Eastern time. We're about 150 points in the NASDAQ 100 below where we were trading at that time. You back it up on the S&P, you were pushing a price level of $39.68. You're talking about 40 points in the red from where we escalated to overnight. We were up there again at about 3 a.m. Eastern time. Now, negative by 99 points right now, call it 131,078, we were above 32,000 for most of the overnight session until that same timeframe, about 3 a.m. when markets started turning south. Russell, negative by 4, 1760. You got Bitcoin. Back under 30,000, 209,055, it's accrued up a dollar at $1,1087. We'll be talking about Antietta Kegstatt coming up at 40 past the hour. We talk to them every Wednesday, folks, from 4xtraining-unlock.com. We always talk some 4x, we usually do some crude as well, crude, holding up relatively well at 110 and change this morning. You got gold, negative this morning, down $17 at $1848, and we jumped to notes and bonds. You got a little bit of higher price and lower yield. We're talking about a yield right now, 2.73%. Talk about a reversal, right? You put this thing on a daily. There's your 10-year. I'm going to back it up, get the full pull down that we had in terms of where we were, 135 and change last August. I think we had the 10-year around 1.1%, 1.2%. Maybe if somebody knows, what was the 10-year yield sitting at when we started this move to lower prices? Basically the beginning of August, I think we're just above 1% somewhere around there. You were in quite a downtrend channel. Markets really escalating to the downside in the beginning of March. That's when yields got out of control. I had mentioned, maybe this is just getting back within that channel line. You extend that line to the right as well. You're talking about maybe you can push up to an upper boundary line of 124.21. We will see that. It'll be quite a rise. We're already three and a half full points off of where we were on May 9th a couple weeks ago. Yields, 2.73%. Back to a short-term timeframe. You jump over to the volatility index this morning back above 30%. Excuse me, you have the VIX trading at 30.06%. All right, jumping around to what we have going on in the market. We'll kick it off with future slip before Fed minutes. So Fed minutes, 2 PM Eastern time today. You have yields falling as investors evaluate the Fed hike bets. Where are we going forward, man? It's going to be an interesting one. We'll see what the Fed had to say on their minutes. The last time we got the minutes, we got some serious action in the market. We'll be talking to our man, Kevin Hinks, coming up in a few minutes after the first break. But nonetheless, you have the Treasury yield falling while the dollar rebounded from a two-day drop. And the euro sliding as comments from the ECB officials indicated policy normalization will be gradual. The ECB is in the midst of a debate of how aggressive it should be, should act to reign in inflation. Nowhere near as aggressive as the US is going to be. That causing a little bit of craziness in terms of the dollar strength recently, putting a hurt on gold, right? Putting a hurt on many things, causing our yields to rise dramatically, lots of influences going on in this market. Economic data this morning, we got durable goods orders rising on steady business equipment demand. So bookings for long lasting goods, this number was out at 830 40 minutes ago, increased 0.4% in April. Core capital goods orders and shipments can continue to advance. So the headline number 0.4% in April after a downwardly revised 0.6% advance a month earlier. The value of cores, core capital goods, and that's investment in equipment that excludes aircraft and military hardware climbed 0.3% after a 1.1% gain a month earlier. The median estimates, the market was looking for a 0.6% increase in orders and 0.5% on the core numbers. So a slight miss. The figures suggest companies are adhering to capital expenditure plans as they seek to enhance productivity, to ease the burden of high inflation, but it was a slight miss in terms of what they were looking for. Core capital goods shipments, a figure that is used to help calculate equipment investment in the government's gross domestic product report, increased 0.8% pointing to a solid start to the second quarter. We also have factory surveys. Yeah, that's a slowdown on the horizon. So Philadelphia's index of capital expenditure, six months from now, dropped in May to a six-year low, while a similar gauge for New York Fed was the weakest since August. Bookings for commercial aircraft rose 4.3% after falling the prior month. Let's jump over to Boeing, because Boeing's been quite a problem child recently, BAs. Their symbol down to 117 last Friday, you put this thing on a daily man, right? You were in a downtrend channel that I was watching for a while. This thing just breaks out of it, remarkable that you're talking about being down basically at the COVID lows when travel ceased to exist. You make it down to a low of 113 in May of the year of 2020, $89 was the exact COVID low. And I'm not sure where you go here yet, folks, because it has not found a bid just yet and you're going to open down another 50 cents to a dollar on Boeing shares this morning. All right, we jump over to Dick's morning goods out with their numbers, a little bit of a miss this morning. Shares sink after retailer cuts outlook for the year joining the broader retail trend, tough, tough period for retail. So they now expect to earn between 9.15 and 11.70 a share. The previous range was 11.70 to 13.10. Analysts were looking for 12.56. It's not going to be 12.56 if the range is 9.50 into 11.70. Forecasting same-store sales growth to be down 8% to down 2% versus a previous expectation of 4% to flat. Investors were calling for a year-over-year decline of 2.5%. So it's going to be down at least 2%, maybe down 8%. The market was looking for 2%. Earnings for the current quarter, they report 285 versus 248. Revenue they beat as well, but it's not what have you done for me in the past. It's what are you going to do for me in the future? And there is the pullback of them recently. Now they've already paid quite a dear price in terms of retail, right? You back things up to just where it was this month. May 2nd, I got a 102 price tag on Dix. Amazing, man, what's happened to retail in the month of May. Nothing is safe in this market, folks. Make sure you're diversified because nothing is safe right now in this market. From 100, you're going to open at $62. That's down from 147. You see the 618 on this chart of the entire acceleration from 13 bucks up to 147. Now you could say that that turned $13. You don't hear me. I think we're fine. Maybe you can check it out. Yeah. OK. Dix down to 62 bucks. And you're basically right back to this consolidation in Dix towards the later part of 2020. Now, Dix had a move of about $10 priced in for their earnings. And that's about the move you're going to get this morning. You're trading at 62 bucks. You're getting a $9 move to the downside. You check out the 15 minute. We were as low as $57 on the news initially at 7.30 in the morning. We're opening at 62. Well, we're at least at 62 right now. We'll see where we open in about 15 minutes from right now. All right, folks, stay tuned. We got the S&P's negative by 15 points right now. We're going to be coming back with our man, Kevin Hinks. We'll be talking a little bit of earnings. We'll be talking a little bit of Fed minutes. We'll be right back, folks. Time of booming inflation. We are purchasing powers eroded. There's no better place to protect your harder and money than in gold. Vistagol's flagship asset is the Mount Todd Gold Project in the Northern Territory of Australia. This is Australia's largest undeveloped gold project. We are talking a world-class gold project in a tier one mining district. 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Your host, Kevin Hicks, Tom White, the team at TD Ameritrade Network. They walk you through the day's market action. They set up hypothetical trades, folks. At every trade they set up, you're talking about defined risk. Kevin Hicks, good morning. Good morning, Tommy O'Brien. Yep, you know, we've had kind of a, it doesn't feel like it, but in terms of economic data, we've had kind of a quiet start to the week. Well, that takes up pace. Today, we just got a durable goods number. We got some mortgage applications this morning, and today at two o'clock Eastern, we'll get the Fed minutes. It's funny, Tommy, I personally don't think that the release of the Fed minutes from two weeks ago should move the market, but it always does. Without fail, the market moves when we get the granular look at what happened at the Fed meeting. So Fed minutes come out today, and then we'll get a second look at GDP tomorrow, and then we'll get personal income and outlays on Friday. So there's a lot going on today, and today we'll have NVIDIA with earning dotted for the belt. So still some good high-profile earnings this week, but I think the rest of this week, Tommy, what will keep people glued to their computers through the end of the day Friday is that inflation data on Friday. Yeah, I can't. I was trying to look up the day, Kevin, because I remember chatting with you about the last month, the last time that we got Fed minutes was it early April, maybe? From the March meeting, whatever it was, it seemed like we got some fireworks, man. Either way, we were chatting about it in the morning. My memory, it's just in my own head. I said, man, recently the market has reacted sometimes. So two o'clock, we get those Fed minutes. We have some Dick's Sporting Good numbers out this morning, Kevin, some tough numbers continuing on retail. Pretty remarkable when you look at some of these stocks. Dick's had already traded so much lower with the retail, man. They were sitting at 110 bucks, basically just over a month ago, let alone they were sitting at 102 dollars on May 4th, and you're gonna open at 63 bucks. What's your take on the overall retail sector, man? Is there gonna be a max-paying situation here? Pretty remarkable, strong companies like Dick's, they're not going anywhere, man. They're gonna be around, and you shave 30, 40% off the price of that equity in a matter of a few weeks. Yeah, retail is just going through a horrible segment of the economy right now. They're trying to manage their inventories. They're trying to get those right. It's interesting that Dick's is down, and JW Northstrom is, well, it was up. It was up 10%, now it's up. Cool, yeah. Maybe a little over one, that was quick. But that's because the overall market, but retail, all these stocks, some of them did better during the pandemic, some did worse, and they're all trying to figure out what their futures are. You're right, Dick's isn't going anywhere. It's the largest sporting goods retailer in the country, but they've got to figure out their data, and a big part of our conversation with them yesterday was Nike, right? Nike is moving more and more product to online and e-commerce. So that affects places like Dick's Sporting Goods, and they're working on trying to get inventories right they had. Fairly good numbers, but they guided poorly. They guided poorly for the second half of the year, as everyone, Tommy, is using their cautious tone for the second half of the year. So yeah, there's more pain coming in. Some of these names will get Dollar Tree today that will cover, that's another discount retailer. So yeah, retail is always a volatile trade, Tommy, and it continues to be so. The inventories, you make a great point, man. Some of the inventory levels, I think Target had like 43% inventory, but huge numbers for a lot of these retails. Walmart as well. Do you see Kevin, because I've been chatting about even with my friends saying, we're all aware of the inflation factor going on. Are these inventory numbers, are they gonna be discounting some of these large inventory levels that they have? Would that be like one of the factors that might contribute to inflation coming down? Because it makes, if all these stores have so much merchandise, let's say my fiance said, there's gonna be some sales coming at Target, man, because they got so much inventory, they gotta get rid of it. Is that something you're looking forward? Because I'm chatting even with my friends, because these inventory levels, it seems like they'd have to be discounting them at some degree, and maybe that's one variable coming into the pricing of everything going on. Well, let's just focus on Target, because their conference call after their earnings talked about, they have a big inventory in discretionary purchases that isn't moving, and people are moving to more essential purchases as the economy starts to slow. So that inventory of panial furniture, things like that, discretionary purchases will probably have to be discounted and come down. And that was part of the outsized weakness, and Target was they're getting their inventory wrong. When people are starting to move towards essentials, they had a bunch of inventory in discretionary stock, or inventory. So yeah, it's kind of a swing and a miss in terms of Target, and you gotta get that inventory discounted and out the door, and get the new inventory in. So yeah, there's probably, you'll probably get an indication of who got the inventory issue wrong by what they're discounting, Tommy. There might be some deals out there, folks. Even, I was starting to do in my head, Kevin, right? Saying I'm in the market potentially to get a bigger vehicle. We've got plenty of kids in the house that probably need a big SUV. And maybe you'll see some decreasing prices of just large SUVs, because man, these gas prices, there's probably a lot of families, rightfully so, that we're not thinking that when they were buying a big SUV, the gas was gonna be pushing five bucks a barrel anytime soon when it wasn't even close to it a year ago. So it's gonna be interesting to see how some of our personal preferences, personal buying behaviors, because I imagine, man, that people just aren't gonna be willing. I mean, we are a nation of SUVs right now, man. And at five bucks a gallon, I imagine there might be some deals there as well. Well, we go forward. You mentioned one of the stocks that's coming up with earnings, Kevin. What are you guys talking about at 12 o'clock today? Yeah, we'll talk about Dollar Tree and their earnings coming up after the bell. We'll look at NVIDIA with like folio and their earnings coming after the bell. And then we'll look at Splunk in our third segment. So three good names today, focusing on earnings. We'll look at all the economic data. We'll look at the overall market. Futures are off their lows. So there's a bit of affirming going on here. None of the economic data was catastrophic. So we'll see how this day plays out, Tommy. Yeah, and pretty, I was just pulling up Dollar Tree. Even Dollar General, I took a look at as well. Real quick, NVIDIA. All of them, about a 10% move, maybe a little bit more priced into their numbers. Huge moves right now, which as option traders, you gotta love folks. You got premium, you can do it both ways. Whether you're buying the premium, you're selling the premium, it's pretty cool as we come into it. And we got a VIX, Kevin, sitting at about 30. Well, we're coming into the long weekend, man. We got three days left. We look forward to the show at 12 o'clock today, Kevin. And we'll talk to you tomorrow. We'll be watching at noon, man. Thanks for having me on, Tommy. Have a great day. You too, Kevin. Take care, always a pleasure. Folks, tune in 12 noon Eastern time every trading day. Kevin Hanks, Tom White, they walk you through the day's market action. They walk you through hypothetical trades. I got NVIDIA up here on the Thaker Swim platform. You have a market maker move expected of 1552. Now this is as of the close of yesterday. NVIDIA 161, you talk about a pullback, man, from 346 to 161, you have a $16 move priced in to their earnings tonight. And you're talking about folks in August of 2020, NVIDIA trading at 147. You get a move down within the expected move and you're back almost two years in NVIDIA after being at 346. We'll see. We'll jump over to the analyze tab. We get their numbers after the bell tonight. Stay tuned, folks. We'll be back for the open. If you want to take advantage of this sector, now is the time to subscribe to my Gold Report. The Gold Report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector, as well as the markets that move gold, which is the currency and bond markets. New subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee, so you have nothing to lose. Every Monday morning, I publish the Gold Report with coverage of gold, silver, bonds, DXAU, HUI, GDX, as well as more than 30 different mining equities. To see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the Gold Report, sign up now by visiting tfnn.com. Don't miss out on the next great gold trade. Sign up today. Tfnn has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. Tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years, with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. And now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den, available to all tigers and tigers for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. In the Tiger's Den, you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas, interact with other tigers and tigers as they share trading ideas, news analysis, and discuss the market action all trading day, even at night and on the weekends. The Tiger's Den at Discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well, so it's always at your reach. To sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders, just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Tfnn is excited about our new software charting program, The Art of Timing the Trade Charts. In collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best-selling book, The Art of Timing the Trade, Your Ultimate Trading Mastery System, David White has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology. Using this first-of-its-kind program, The Art of Timing the Trade Charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups, including guardleafs, ABCs, butterflies, and much more. The Art of Timing the Trade Charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days, weeks, or even months searching to find. And right now, we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month. We are so confident that you're gonna love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money-back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting TFNN.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. We've got markets open right now. Jumping back to the S&P, you're negative by 12 points right now. On a 15-minute basis, you were as high as I mentioned at the start of the show, almost pushing 39.70. You're trading 39.26 right now, negative by 15 points. Let's jump around to some of the fang stocks. See how we're trading Amazon. Negative by about a 10th of a percent. Microsoft shares down three-quarters percent to kick off the trading day. Apple, down a full percent. Now, we get some big pullbacks right now. If you have Apple down a percent, you got Microsoft down three-quarters percent. You have Google down 1.1 percent. And somehow the NASDAQ 100 is only down 50 points. We jump over to Tesla, Tesla's flat. Talk about a pullback, man. It's just not stopping on Tesla. Down to 6.17 overnight, you're back to 6.27 right now, basically where you were as of the close of yesterday. We jump around to Dix, down 9.5 percent on their week forecast going forward for Dix Sporting Goods. And as Kevin mentioned, we get the dollar stores coming up. Dollar Tree, now you talk about some pullbacks, folks. Look at the way that these equities got hit already. And that's the thing that's kind of crazy about Dix. They've already to put things back on Dix, right? Let's go back 20 days. You have some serious gaps. That's a one-way trip from 103 to $70. And meanwhile, they come out with the earnings that a lot of people already knew were gonna be pretty rough and you're still down 10% on that equity. Dollar Tree, there's your drop off for them from 156. That was last Wednesday, down to 129. And that's where we're opening today. When we jump over to the Analyze tab, they have their numbers tomorrow, Dollar Tree, $16 move for a $13 stock. So that's some serious volatility in Dollar General. You're talking about a $17 move for $195 stock. You take a look at their chart, pretty similar action. As we were just trading at 250, we're trading at 195. Kevin mentioned NVIDIA they'll be talking about. NVIDIA, we pulled up the longer term timeframe. They're talking about a $16 move. Their numbers after the bell tonight, more than a 10% move priced in to the options on that equity. And let's jump right to what else we have going on. Mortgage demand, Kevin referenced it as we talked to him at the top of the hour. Mortgage demand slides even further as interest rates pull back slightly. Applications to refinance a home loan drop 2% for the week, 75% lower than the same time a year earlier. Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home were flat week to week and down 16% from a year earlier. The average contract interest rate for a 30 year fixed mortgage with a confirming loan balance of 647,000 bucks or less 5.46% down from 5.49. So when somebody asks you what a 30 years going for folks, it's going for 5.5%, all right? Now, what's gonna be interesting to see how this plays out is chat with friends who are not in the financial business, but they're always in the business of whether it's investments, home investments, et cetera. And the consensus seems to be that if you're a homeowner, you're probably okay, rents are so high, what are you gonna do? Are you gonna sell your home right now for a 3.5% loan and go rent somewhere? Are you gonna sell it and go buy somewhere else where the loan's gonna be 5.5% now? Why would you do that, right? But if you are an investor, man, and you got a plethora of properties, I would be very wary of how this is gonna hit that market. And yeah, it's gonna be a tough one, man. What about refinances as well, right? Who's gonna be refinancing their home for any time soon? Yeah. And what was it? What's this, is it rocket, right? What is, no. What's the rocket mortgage, rocket companies? Yeah, RKT, is that rocket mortgage? Is that, I think it is. Yeah, if this doesn't tell you everything, man. When they went public, I think this is. Yeah, rocket, yeah. When they went public, right? Dan Snyder, what's he, he's got, what is he on? He owns one of those teams out there. No, Dan Snyder is Washington. Who owns, excuse me, who owns Quicken? Either way, when they went public, I said, why are you going public, man? You're going public at peak of the market, right? There's no reason to go public and sell shares of your company if you have future growth coming down the line. Well, I forget when they went public at, but this thing chopped around between 15, as high as 30, you make it to 40 last year when things were rocking out of control and it's been a one-way ship to $8. And I would be careful because going forward, I'm not sure how the refinance market plays out when you have people locked into mortgages. Yeah, thanks, dad. So is that, yeah. So they go in August of 2020 at $18. Yeah, it's a rocket trajectory right into the ground, man. Because it's going to take a lot for people to ever need to refinance. Now, yes, people buying right now, right? Anybody buying homes at this level, they're going to be the ones refinancing. But the only people refinancing are going to be anybody buying a home 2022 forward for a very considerable period of time. Which if you think about how long the refinance acceleration has gone forward as rates went from double digits when I was born to 0% basically recently, there's no reason for anybody to refinance anytime soon unless you're one of the people that are buying a mortgage now as rates have risen. And yeah, this one, you know, pay attention when somebody goes public folks and they don't need to. They had no reason to go public, all right? None whatsoever. And they go public when business was booming. And the only reason you do that is because you think that maybe you're at peak levels. And look at that chart. S&P charging back, we're in positive territory, man. Look at that pop to 3946. The Nasdaq pops as well. Let's see how those fank stocks are trading. Apple still negative by, oh, no, yeah, Apple. Look at that pop, man. You talk about moves. Apple just popped basically $2 from where it was pre-market which is adding about $32 billion in market cap just like that as markets turn green. Let's see how Dix is trading on theirs. I mean, they've clawed back almost $10 of where they were initially to 57 bucks. We jump around to some of the other retail stocks. You've got Walmart down half a percent right now. Target positive by about three-tenths. You jump over to Amazon, man. Talk about some pullbacks. Amazon up 1% right now. Let's see how the stocks are coming out in the next couple of days. Nvidia catches a pop by about $5. You're trading to $165. Let's see the dollar stores basically hanging tough, waiting for their earnings right now. Flat for Dollar Tree and Dollar General. All right, let's see what else we got going on for stocks making moves. What do we got pulled up? Oh, you know what I want to talk about is crypto. So be very careful here, folks. Anderson Horowitz, right? They are well into crypto, man. I think they're a big player in the board-ape universe of everything going on. They're starting a new fund of $4.5 billion fund for backing crypto and blockchain companies, okay? So yes, that's gonna be crypto. But don't take that as meaning that they're just starting a fund to go buy Bitcoin, okay? Because there is a lot more money to be made in the business that they are running. And I understand it by like the faintest of notions, but all I understand is they're basically printing currency, giving themselves a bunch of it and then selling it off to everybody else. You know that board-ape yacht club, man? And they're selling virtual land and they're selling virtual land in Apecoins. They create the Apecoin. They give themselves billions of the Apecoins. It's probably a very, very brilliant business idea right now, but don't take that to mean that Bitcoin is gonna be a huge buy at 30,000 because they can make money in that field by doing different things as opposed to just loading up in Bitcoin. Being able to print their own cryptocurrency and building an NFT world is a lot better way to make money in the crypto sector. And I have no idea how to do it. Which is why I'm not doing it, man. But the brilliant men and women that do quite a time to be alive, folks, when you can literally just create your own currency, print it off, give yourself billions of it, sell virtual land that has to be paid for in that cryptocurrency, lock up those purchases for a year so they can't sell it. The list goes on and on. Yeah, be very, very wary. So we're gonna talk about this. We're gonna talk a little bit about Luna and stay away from tether, folks, if you are in tether. You got some risks. 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The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, foresight fund services, LLC. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to tfnn.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's tfnn.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. Welcome back, folks. We have the S&P, positive by five points right now. You're trading at 39.46. We accelerate on the open and jumping over to that crude market. We got the price accrued right now. Let me pull it up. CL, 110.56, we were just above 111. Let's jump over to our man, Teddy Kegstad. We talk to Teddy folks every Wednesday at 40 past the hour. Put it on your calendar at 9.40 a.m. Eastern Time every Wednesday. You can reach Teddy every trading day at his website, forex-trading-unlock.com. Teddy Kegstad, good morning. Good morning, Tommy. So we got volatility in these markets to say the least, Teddy. Quite a week for retail, but jumping around to Forex. We have a little bit of a reversal maybe in the dollar. We have yields back to 2.73% this morning. What do you think about this market? Well, right now, I think we have a nice little corrective rally going against the dollar. I think it's possible to get edge a little higher. And one of the main reasons is the Treasury bond market. We know that right now, the 10-year and the 30-year have been trending higher for the past week and a half. Interestingly enough, the 30-year bond had a reverse head and shoulders that it broke out of last week. And over the past couple sessions, it's been trying to edge push resistance a little bit. So right now, if that head and shoulders pattern is really true, we can still see a little bit more upside potential in interest rate pricing, meaning a little pressure on the dollar also and with that variable. But I think that the markets are getting kind of skittish because when you really see how much the dollar has corrected when it has, over the past few months, it hasn't corrected very much. So I think we're kind of at that little friction point right now. Yeah, when I just take a look at it on a six-month basis, I mean, quite a little pullback what we have, almost up to 105 in early May. And we're sitting at 102.27. That's the DXY, the Bloomberg Dollar Index. But that's coming, as you say, from a price point of 96 in almost March. Yeah, not really a pullback. We were, you know, I love Fibonacci levels. I don't even have to put a Fibonacci level on that. We're nowhere near even to the 3A2 in terms of a real pullback of still a bullish run. Breaking down the individual pairings, where can we start off? What are you looking at this week for the individual pairings? Okay, well, interestingly enough, you know, the yen that I've been a bull of for a very long has had a pretty nice correction over the past, like especially weak or so. I would be careful at these levels being a seller. I'm not saying that we haven't seen the low yet, but we are kind of bottoming in there, especially with oil poised to break out to the upside. You know, so you got to realize that the second the bonds turn and the 10-year turn, even on a daily basis, you see this knee-jerk reaction in the US dollar yen trade. So I think that as the interest rate trade starts to give a little relief, meaning the rates are going short-term lower in the market rate and higher in pricing, I think as that starts to nudge up against resistance and pullback, you're gonna see a big snap back in the US dollar yen as well. You know, so I really do believe that if oil does start to break out to the upside, we're in front of a holiday weekend. You know, there's a lot of reasons to be more bullish oil than not. And if we can break out, I mean, right now we're wedging, if we challenge that 116 level and hit it, get above 116, well, I can't see how the US dollar yen wouldn't explode to the upside. You know, so on the Euro US dollar trade, I would use caution at these levels because we already hit our short-term daily target. We had a buy signal about a week and a half ago, but we had a weekly buy signal that was finished yesterday, or not yesterday, last week. And if that level runs out of gas, you know, that's why I was just mentioning the head and shoulders and the interest rate market because these coincide with each other right now. So you have the rate pressure going down, meaning up in price and the dollar pulling back, but it's very, very sensitive. You know, and we have a lot of inflation numbers that, hey, you know, we were talking about this months ago about how the lag is there, and now people are accepting the fact that, well, we're gonna be talking about inflation for six months from now still, you know. And I even heard you earlier about people's choices, you know, like a target, yeah, maybe you can get a good deal on a patio set right now, but people that aren't gonna be buying patio sets right now when they're spending $6 a gallon for these. That's house choice, right, for sure, yeah, for sure. Hey, we got a caller, Teddy, all right? Let's jump to a caller if you don't mind. We got Jeff from Philly, and he wants to talk a little New Zealand dollar. Jeff, good morning, man, thanks for calling in. Hi, good morning, Tommy. Thanks for taking my call. And Teddy, thanks for taking my call. It says a little bit of an obscure question, but I've been trading Econ News and FX for about the last four years, and I saw something last night that I've never seen before. There were two very strange price actions, and I wanted to ask you if you heard anything or just had any comments on this. So what I saw was there was a rate decision coming out in New Zealand at 10 o'clock, Eastern time, PM, and three minutes before the news came out, price started dropping. The New Zealand against the US dollar started dropping. Now, I've seen sometimes news releases come out a little bit early, maybe 10 seconds, 30 seconds, most something like that, but this was three minutes early. I saw the price started dropping, and but then exactly at 10 o'clock when the news release came out, it shot up like crazy. It was a huge move, and actually I made a lot of money, but it shot up in the opposite direction. And the weird thing about that, I mean, in addition to the early price drop, for no apparent reason, is that the forecast for that rate decision was 2% and the actual was 2%. And 2.00%, I mean, precisely the same. So when I see big price moves like this, it's in response to some kind of a surprise, but I mean, it's gonna be less of a surprise. It exactly matched the forecast. So to get this huge move without a surprise and to get the price dropped in the opposite direction a little bit before the news, or a few minutes before the news, those are two very strange things. Well, it isn't, it isn't. You gotta remember when you're trading a news event, that's very typical. So I mean, especially in today's algo world, so I would assume that probably right before that number, you have a lot of liquidation where a lot of algos will actually shut off because they don't wanna trade the number because of the noise that happens during those moments. I mean, like you said, everything came out as expected. So now I think one of the biggest questions you have to ask is besides the knee-jerk reaction on just the volatility of the number going out is what are the expectations? Are they gonna continue to follow suit? And I think that there is an interest rate war going on now with all the central banks, it's a matter of who's gonna catch up to who first, except for like Japan where they're not doing anything when they said they would. So I think that that's where you're getting these little reactions right now, but you get the expectations no matter what for New Zealand are not that good. So where this raising the interest rate you would think it would help support their currency more? I mean, right now the New Zealand dollar isn't an upside correction. I view it as a correction, especially because their lockdown measures are very severe and still coming back again. So there's a lot of reasons why their economic numbers are gonna be very poor moving forward over the next six months. So that's gonna weigh on their currency. So, and we know that they just pop their rate. Well, we're gonna pop our rate again in the next few weeks, no matter what at least and more likely over the next few months we're gonna pop our rate more than theirs. So I think that that's why you're seeing this kind of reaction that you're looking at that happened. Okay, great. Well, thank you very much for your insights. I appreciate you taking the time. Jeff, that was a great question, man. Thanks so much for calling in. All right, thanks, take care. Teddy, I appreciate the update as always, man. Have a great holiday weekend and we look forward to chatting you in next Wednesday. We'll see where crude is following Memorial Day, man. Higher. It's not surprising, man. Thanks so much, Teddy. I appreciate it as always. Okay, you too, man. We'll talk to you next week. 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This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. We get the S&Ps positive by four right now, the NASDAQ 100 positive by 17, the Dow positive by 35, and so sad what went on in Texas yesterday. Just got to say a couple words because, man, I was crying last night just watching Biden talk about it, talking about those parents, those families laying down, wondering if they're ever going to sleep again, man. The sadness is just devastating, folks. And of course, I'm praying for those families, but hopefully we can do something. I don't know what it is. It's so political, I get it. But you got to ask yourself, what are we doing? And we're doing nothing right now. We got to do something, okay? We're doing nothing right now. And the normal discourse goes, let's put guards in schools, all right? I have a five-year-old in the house. He goes to a school. There's a guard there. I like there's a guard there, okay? That's not going to solve the problem. Yesterday, you had an 18-year-old showing up with an assault rifle with body armor, shooting the guards on his way into killing kids in the school. That's not going to solve it, folks. So what are we doing, okay? For the greatest country in the world, what are we doing? Ask yourself, what are we doing? What are we doing to create difference, okay? I don't know what the solution is, but we often forget, folks. I was born in 1980, okay? When I went to high school, when I went to college, there was a federal assault weapons ban. From 1994 to 2004, it expired, okay? I'm not saying that solves everything. I'm not saying that that would even fly with this court right now. But at least our country was trying to do something when I was in high school and we didn't even have the same problem. They were trying to do something. What are we doing? What are we doing right now? All right, ask yourself, what are we doing to make sure it doesn't happen again? Okay, you had Dick Sporting Goods come out after the Parkland shooting in 2018 and they weren't going to sell guns anymore to kids 18. They were going to have only gun sales to people who were 21. I believe they weren't going to sell assault rifles either. Okay, that's a company that's trying to do something. Okay, what are we doing? Guards in schools aren't going to solve the problem. When you have kids showing up who are 18 with assault rifles with body armor, mowing guards down on their way into the school. So what are we doing? What are we doing, folks? We got to do something. I got a one-year-old, I got a five-year-old, and I got a 15-year-old in the house, okay? And it's too real. It's too sad and those poor families, man. I have them in my heart. Keep them in your hearts. All those kids, man, so sad. So God do something, folks. Okay, we've got to come together and do something. What are we doing? Stay tuned, folks. Thanks so much for tuning in. S&P is positive by five. We got our man Basil Chapman. He's coming up next, folks. Have a great Wednesday.