 What's up guys and girls? Let's look at Snapchat. It is getting messy, but if you followed my other stuff, you know that this is what I was hoping for. Let's look at the day. Still a rough day after earnings. Let's look at the two week. All right, so it's $8 a share down from 80. What a mess. There is, let me find it. There's an old gap, which is what I'm drooling for. The old gap is between seven, and let's call it eight. I am just guessing. I don't know for sure, but I'm guessing that one day we could fill it. Let's jump over to my valuation sheet. And this is what I'm using to track, and I've made previous videos on this before. What I do is I go to seeking alpha and I pull their analyst expectations, and they do change. They've recently changed, and I plug them into my formulas. And what we do is we look at 10 or 20 years of assumptions, right? These are the best guesses. I have no idea. The analyst, they think they have an idea, so I punch in the earnings, and then we make some assumptions because on seeking alpha, if you pay for the premium, they will tell you what could happen. Now, these change, and they show you the history of the revisions. If you look, they were saying that in 20, 27, and 28, which is right now, they're guessing about $1 a year in earnings, it used to be $7 a year. When things were rocking and rolling, advertising was booming. Analysts were saying Snapchat in the future could earn $6, $7 a share. Right now, those guesses or expectations, they're crushed, they're down on the ground. So if things ever get better for Snapchat, you better believe that that would come back in the table. But right now, hey, we're probably gonna go into a recession. It is not a good sign when banks are failing. So we have these updated estimates. We punch them in, and now we know, roughly, what this is worth over time. Yes, if this company grows over time and you discount those earnings, it could be worth more. Because if we look at the, who's bugging me? If we look at the valuation today, this thing should be worth, if it's not growing, this thing should be worth between $2 and $4. But we have to believe that it's gonna grow. If this were next year, it should be worth between $6 and $13. If I could get it in the green zone in the next two years between, let's say, $2 and $6, it becomes a crazy opportunity. Because assuming just what the bearish analysts are expecting right now, assuming that this company does grow, it's 2023 right now. If we look at 2033, according to this magic spreadsheet, Snapchat could be somewhere between $50 and $160. We discount that back, and assuming, let's say I do get it at five bucks. My magic worksheet tells me it would be a keger, an annualized compounded return of 41%. In other words, if I pay five and it goes to 160, the return a bank would have to pay me to match that would be 41%. That's more than 10x, that's like 30x. This is fantasy land. So what's wild is the peg one, which is just 25 growth rate times that earnings is 80. In 10 years, my spreadsheet is saying that if the company does okay, it'll be worth 80 or higher in the future. And that's where it was like a year and a half ago. That tells you how crazy this market was. Now, times were good and Snapchat was earning more, but man, those days are long gone. This thing's $8 down from 80. Isn't that nuts? Isn't that insane? This isn't the only one. If you look at ARRIC, 100 stocks happened to some good times and good valuations and long assumptions to where we are right now. And a lot of stocks aren't even cheap yet. A lot of stocks aren't even cheap. Let's look at the Russell. Russell looks, if that breaks down, that'll give me my entry that I'm looking at for Snapchat. Let's just go back. I'm bearish the stock, I'm bearish the price. I want the opportunity. And just because I'm bearish on it, doesn't mean I don't have any exposure because I do like it ultimately. So if we look at Snapchat, it's worth $8. And I'm playing around with the year, year and a half puts. No, I'm not buying them, if that's what you're wondering. If we look at the puts, that's gonna be hard to see, but I wanna get in at five and someone will pay me 64 cents to buy at five. If I write the put, if I short the put, I am selling option for income. They pay me 64 cents because I take the negative position. They pay me to buy it at five. I'm just keeping busy because this will still give me a healthier return. If it never goes to five, I will make a return. I don't worry about how much it is, but really if it goes down to five, I wanna get these shares. So that's the strategy, that's why I do the valuation. I need to know what it can go down to and what the opportunity is. Then I go trade options on that. Am I gonna buy calls? Not in this environment. There's no point. When you buy an option, you're borrowing money. When you pay for premium, you're buying a lot of money. You're buying the opportunity to use leverage. The way it's priced, it's a loan. So I'm not gonna do that, but I will sell the puts. I will lend to the bears so I can get shares lower. Hope this was interesting. I really love my worksheets. I've been giving it away. I may put it in the link, but there's formulas in here and I can change the growth rate. I can change the earnings over time. I can adjust the 10 year forward growth rate. You wanna have a map, otherwise you don't know where you're going. Hope that was helpful. Cheers.