 Welcome traders to another Ticknail Weekly Market Outlook for week commencing the 9th May with me, Patrick Runnerley. This will be a big week for inflation watchers given that inflation has been the dominant focus driving lots of action across global markets for much of the past 12 to 18 months. Still, markets perk up when the two biggest economies in the world update their inflation readings on the heels of decisions by major global central banks. Further, if Russia formally declares war against the Ukraine as some expect instead of labelling its invasion as a special operation on May 9, keeping with the 1945 anniversary of the Russian victory over Nazi Germany, then oil and inflation markets could get a further jolt with the risk of escalation, including greater mobilisation of Russian troops. Russia has denied this but can't be trusted as it has lied every step of the way. Putin will make a closely monitored speech marking the occasion. For turning to the expectations in the context of the rest of the week's overall developments, it's worth stepping back and tracking progress on supply chain drivers that are playing a partial role in pushing inflation higher. The evidence across the suite of measures is mixed at best and continues to suggest that there is a lot of work to be done. The drivers of supply chain challenges have been shifting with new drivers taking over from prior ones but it seems highly premature to conclude that intense overall supply chain pressures are turning less inflationary. So let's take a look at the data for the week starting in the US on Monday we get March Holds sale inventories. Last time out 2.3% looking for a similar print this time, final estimate restocking at a robust pace in the US. On Tuesday we get April and FIP Small Business Optimism. Last time out 93.2%. Looking for a 92.9% printer's cost pressures are the key concern for small businesses at the moment. Wednesday we get the all-important April CPI. Last time we had a 1.2% print looking for a 0.2% consensus print this time as energy has a negative impact on the April readings. Then moving to Thursday we get April PPI. Last time out 1.4%. Looking for a 0.5% printer's supply issues are supporting producer prices. We also get initial jobless claims last time out 200k set to remain at very low levels. We ran out the week on Friday with the April import price index. Last time 2.6%. Looking for 0.6% import prices hold at elevated levels. We finished the week up with the University of Michigan sentiment. Last time out 65.2%. Looking for a 63.7% print here inflation and rate concerns are still front of mind. We also note that throughout next week starting on Tuesday and through to Friday we get a bunch of central bank FOMC speakers as well. Depending upon their position on the FOMC where they sit in the hawker shore dovish side they could also impact price action in the dollar. So moving to the technical setup dollar index is heading to test that 104.47 area from there I'll be watching for bearish reversal patterns to play it correctively back into test the trend channel support. But again as we hold support at 102.50 I'm looking to play the long side looking for a test up into the 105.38 to 106.64 target zone for the next leg higher. Moving to the Eurozone. Data starts on Monday. May is sent to investor confidence. Last time negative 18. Looking for negative 20 as the Russian Ukraine severely clouds the outlook. On Tuesday we get May ZDW survey of expectations. Last time negative 43. Confidence on par with pandemic lows there. And then we round out the week in the Eurozone with March industrial production on Friday. Last time positive 0.7 looking for a negative 0.05 as supply chain. Pressures are an ongoing headwind. From a technical perspective Eurodollar any three-way corrective moves back into test the 107.40, 107.50 as resistance watch for bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side. And we're also looking to move down to 102.80s here. Equally if we take out prior lows 104.70s I want to be sure looking for a test of that 102.80 zone. At this stage can't get constructed on the Euro unless we take out trend channel resistance now coming around 108.40s. Moving to the UK. Slightly lighter data calendar this week. Really focus will be on Thursday where we get first quarter GDP. Last time out 1.3% print. Consensus is 1% print this time. BOE warned of Q1 strength to be followed by a sharp slowing. We also get trade balance from the UK and that's expected to be below average. Export volumes have really widened the deficit there. So from a technical perspective Stirling obviously sold off heavily after the BOE last week and Governor Bailey's pretty dire outlook on the situation in the UK. So really as we find resistance on any pullbacks into the 124.50s and want to engage on the short side looking for a test of this 120.80 zone. From there I think we could potentially see a more meaningful corrective move. At this stage equally can't get constructed on Stirling unless we take out this internal trend line resistance coming around 127.50s. Moving to Japan. Only on Monday we get the April Nikkei Japan PMI services. Last time at 50.5 final estimate for the month expected to be in line. Then on Thursday in Japan we'll get March current account balance. Looking for a 1,765.6 print there back to surplus from primary higher income and smaller trade gap and that runs out the data pretty light. Oh actually on Tuesday we get March household spending in Japan. Looking for a negative 3.3% print rising costs and weaker incomes to continue to squeeze spending in the Japanese economy. From a technical perspective looking for the yen here to extend higher into initially the 133 target zone from there watch for bearish reversal patterns. Looking for three-way corrective move to retest 127.60s, 127.10 area. From there I'm looking to engage on the long side looking for a move up to 135. At this stage we really need to see a close back through 126.80s to suggest a more meaningful correction is in play. And rounding out the week down under in Australia. Tuesday April NAV business survey reopening momentum should continue to see significant price pressures. We also get first quarter retail sales. Last time 8.2% looking for 1% print. This time normal sales reported up to 2.9% quarter. Of course but most of this was Christ led. And then on Wednesday we get the May WBC MI consumer sentiment. Last time out 95.8 but great high reactions are likely to dominate that print. And then on Thursday inflation expectations last time 5.2% and their likings remain elevated to remember the 5.1% lift in the first quarter CPI. And we round out the week with some RBA fed speak. Bullock is on a panel there. So from a technical perspective the Aussie dollar respected the trend channel. I'm looking for a break now through the 70 cents handle to see an extension to the downside. Initially looking for a 68.50 test. And then as the trend channel remains in place we have our equality objective at 66.25. At this stage it will take a close back through the 72.70 area to suggest more range trading at this point. And that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 9th of May. As always trade as plan the trade, trade the plan and most importantly manage your risk. Until next week, thanks very much.