 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning, markets kick off with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good Friday morning everybody, I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN just after 9 a.m. Eastern time and we pick things up basically where we've been for the better part of this week with positive prices in the markets. We got some inflation data this morning. Market will probably consider that data pretty good in terms of easing inflation numbers just a bit, but boy, we still got a long way to go. Don't remember, don't forget that one. S&P's climbing right near 4,100. We hit 4,098.50 at 8.30 on those economic numbers. We'll get to those in a moment. Right now you get the S&P's up about 15 points right now, trading at 4,094, NASDAQ 100. You're up by 25, 13,106. You get the Dow up almost 150 points, 33,191. And you've got the Russell up by 11 this morning. That's about 6 tenths percent. Crude, $75, almost $74.86. You're up another 50 cents on crude. Man, quite a far cry from where we were, right? 64 bucks. You talk about some volatility in this crude contract, man. Let's put it on a daily for a second. Now we're getting some inflation numbers. Difficult to remember that we're actually below where we came into the month. Yeah, it's been quite a run from where we were on March 20th, 64.36. We're up near $75. But all things considered, near the bottom range of where crude's been trading at, as in crude prices, energy prices, actually helping out the headline numbers for inflation. As I said, we'll get to them in a moment, but keep that one in mind, man. Because on a headline basis, you could see some flare ups there on the price of crude. Goal contract, right near 2,000 bucks back to a short-term timeframe to see the volatility on gold. We were just above that price point on 830 up to 2004. We're back to 1994, down three bucks on the session. Notes and bonds, pretty tame action after some severe volatility. We got the 10-year right now. We'll call it negative by one tick at 114.17. The 30-year is positive by six ticks at 131.11. We jump over to the VIX, talk about dropping out of bed, man. VIX, 18 handle, 18.92. We got to 20 yesterday, 18.92. As it's been, risk on week, money in the markets, and we get the economic data that flows with that agenda this week. The Fed favored inflation gauge rises by less than forecast, spending moderates. The number that you're gonna be looking at here, excluding food and energy, because this is what the Fed is looking at the most. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.3% in February after the prior month was revised down slightly. The overall PCE climbed by the same amount, consumer spending adjusted for prices fell 0.1% after surging and upwardly revised 1.5% at the start of the year. The decrease reflected a drop in outlays for both goods and services. PCE price index up 5% from a year earlier. That is a deceleration from January, but yeah, to put it lightly, still well above where the Fed wants things. Now, excluding food and energy, core PCE, 4.6 for the year, smallest increase since October of 2021. We've seen a play out before, folks, and I know I'm giving you a bit of the bearish case here as the market's risen pretty dramatically and we're approaching 4,100 now, but boy, it's really difficult to get from 5% to 4% right now, right? What happens when we have to go from four to three? What happens when we have to go from three to two? That's the one I try and wrap my head around, man. So you gotta go a little bit longer out to get that equation. US stock futures, yeah, rising a bit. Core PCE came in slightly below the estimate of 0.4%. So core comes in 0.3, the market was looking for 0.4 and from there, the market likes that number, man, and we go to positive prices at 4,093. Now, take a look at this price chart, folks, okay? There's a couple of things here. First of all, you go back to the whole, just let's take a look at the month of March, okay? So we get the highs of February, pretty remarkable, you're coming back up to the highs of February, right? I'm gonna zoom in on the month of March, okay? March 7th was where we fall out of bed. In terms of that is where Chairman Powell was in front of Congress for his semi-annual appearance in front of the House and the Senate. On Tuesday, March 7th, he talks about higher rates. Thursday, March 9th, the banking collapse begins. Friday, March 10th, things are the worst. Monday, March 13th, we're not quite out of the woods yet, but we make a low of 38, 40, and from there, man, you were up 250 plus points on the S&P, quite an acceleration. Now, where you take a look at things? One interesting price point I have on my chart, okay? Now I'm gonna back things up and take an hourly to zoom in on things just a bit. If you take the area that this was in, March 21st, March 22nd, okay, where we got a little bit of a downflow in terms of 100 points on the S&P, we're coming up to a 1.618 expansion, okay? That could be an area of resistance and that's gonna bring you up to about 4105, 4107. I had it on my charts. That's not taking the exact high. There's a bunch of areas on this chart that it could be at, folks, okay? Because the other thing you could do, so I gave you that chart, okay? That's the acceleration that we saw for the pullback from March 20th. We take that off there. If you really go back to the acceleration we had from February 7th, you can see that we still got a long way to go if that's the case, okay? You really want the case in terms of where you might look to, 4,200. 4,189, 4,200. We get up there, folks. There's gonna be a lot of headwinds and the data's gonna decide things, okay? That's the bottom line no matter what, but 4,200 on this chart, you're going back to the highs of February. You're almost going back to the spike high in December 13th. You're going back to the highs of May 31st. You're going back to the highs of almost September 13th, 4,175. You did get above that price point in August, okay? But maybe that's the price point, 4,189. There's gonna be a couple price points on this run wherever we go, folks, but boy, we're coming into April, man. And it's pretty interesting that the market gets so excited about a number that's 4.X percentage inflation across the board. 4.6%, folks. And energy might not be our friend going forward. March is gonna be a decent number for inflation, for energy, but you're gonna start dealing with energy prices where we've had crude in the 60s. And on a headline basis, energy's been our friend recently and that might not be the case forever as we go forward. Yeah, and with that in mind, I mean, I was taking a look at First Republic today, folks. I don't know who in their right mind is banking at any of these institutions that still potentially is in trouble. I don't think you're gonna lose your money, okay? I think there's probably less than a 1% chance you would lose your deposit money at First Republic. But what's your gain, right? Even if there's a 1% chance you lose your money over 250 grand, why are you keeping it in there? I often use the term, what's the probability that if you have, like what's the probability? The probability is greater than zero. Okay, what's the probability that you have your money in an FDIC insured bank, you have money over 250,000, what is the probability that you could lose that money if the bank gets taken over by the FDIC? Well, it's greater than zero. So if it's greater than zero, you better be getting a return that's equatable to the risk that you are taking. I just don't understand why people are still in any of these banks. And if you take that equation and you just keep going out, this problem is gonna persist, man. And you get numbers like this on a constant basis, money market funds. Yeah, 508 billion billion with a B, half a trillion dollars into money market funds. When's the last time we did that, folks? Pete COVID right there. When's the last time before that? 2008. Do you remember what equity prices look like when we see spikes like this into money markets? Do you remember? I remember. Not good, folks. Dash for cash continues. We'll take a look at that. We'll take a look at some of the other equities moving this morning. We'll take a look at the markets, folks. Stay tuned. It's Friday. We got markets trading higher, nearing 4,100. We'll be right back. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from Veteran Day Trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to, and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years' experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know, and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com, educating investors. Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago, and the student has now become the master. Steve won the prestigious Timer of the Year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019, finishing at number two for the year, an amazing accomplishment. Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn, and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his Mastering Probability newsletter. Steve's award-winning newsletter, Mastering Probability, is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon. Sign up for Steve's market newsletter, Mastering Probability, and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars absolutely free. At TFNN, all our newsletters come with a 30-day money-back guarantee, so you have absolutely nothing to worry about. Visit TFNN.com and try Mastering Probability, 30 days risk-free today. TFNN, educating investors. TFNN has launched the Tiger's Den. Hosted at Discord, TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours, the Tiger's Den. Available to all tigers and tigeresses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. We get S&Ps trading right at 4,095 right now. Now, if you take a look at... I'm gonna take this. I put that chart 4,200, man. Put it on your chart. If I got a chance to load up some shorts at 4,200, doesn't mean you can't put some stops in there, folks, okay? Because we've seen how this market can run. That's kind of why the reason I've been trading this thing with some options. Defined risk, because at least you're defined risk, man. I mean, I was talking about at the beginning of the week. Maybe we see 3,900 in the S&P. It was plausible, folks. We've run to the upside as far as we went to the upside. On Tuesday, was it Tuesday or Monday? Let me zoom in on Monday and Tuesday, because, man, things were accelerating quick. Now, it was gonna be on Tuesday. Yeah, on Tuesday, I got off the air. We were under 4,000, and we had trading from 4,025 and 4,040, so you traded down, what, 50 points from where you were early Monday before this acceleration really started, and you talk about an acceleration, man. We're now more than 100 points above that price. We're on almost 120 points, folks. We're 3%, markets are 3% higher from where they were on Tuesday. Just remarkable, man. Okay, jumping around to what else we had going on. Some of the articles I had pulled up here. This one's an interesting one. Nope, that one, nope. Come on, where are we? Here we go. I mean, simple enough, okay. Nope, that's not it either, excuse me. Here we go, thank you. Now, this is an opinion piece, okay, but some of the stats in here, I just wanted to give you one in particular. It's the easiest case of hindsight, folks. Silicon Valley Bank gives bond investors a stark lesson in term risk. You better believe it, man. We all knew this, how didn't they know it, okay? If you wanted that money back at any point, you better have been willing to take a loss if you locked your money in for 10 plus years. Now, the one thing that they put in here, okay? Of course, they had all the government back loans, okay? Widely viewed as some of the safest investments. It's a useful lesson for individual investors about the risks lurking in bond portfolios. My dad's been talking about it forever, man, because a lot of people, especially investors, that are novice, right? Retirement investors, whatever it is, they see something like a US Treasury and they think there's no way you can lose money on that. They see something like a bond portfolio, right? For instance, you buy a bond portfolio or something like that, you buy a bond ETF, right? Oh my goodness, can you imagine some of the money you could have lost as we've seen this run up, right? Well, there's a reason why they did that, okay? Because they wanted more yield. The problem is it's hard to make money without taking risk, folks. That's the bottom line. Anybody ever tells you that they'll give you more money than the guaranteed risk-free rate of return with the government, there's a risk? That's it, period. Since 1926, yeah, and the easiest way to do it is, they put their money into one-month T-bills. Silicon Valley Bank could have put their money into one-month T-bills. They didn't, because they wanted a higher interest rate. So they were willing to take the risk associated with duration to get that interest rate. You're telling me people running a $250 billion bank don't know about duration risk? They knew about it well enough to make sure that all that money on their balance sheet was in whole-term maturity securities because it was going way under the value that they paid for it as rates were rising. But the reason why is because they didn't do that. Now, does anybody know what the one-month T-bill was at? At those lowest, it was probably at 0%, right? It was probably at like 0.1, 0.01, something like that. The one-month T-bill during the middle of 2020, probably guessed it was about 0%, which is why they didn't put their money in there. Since 1926, one-month T-bills have returned 3.2% a year barely above the rate of inflation. So that's the thing to stay constant on, folks, and that's the reason why people go out for longer duration to get a higher interest rate. But if you ever want that money back quickly, no, you don't get that money back quickly. If you wanted the ability to get that money every month, then you put it in a one-month Treasury Bill. If you wanna have the ability to get it every two years, you get it in a two-year. If you don't care about ever tapping that money without potentially taking a capital loss, then you put it in 10-month, 10-plus year, wherever you put it, right? You put it in long duration, and that's what happened. It's the simplest enough. It's not even worth going through all of the numbers, but check out the annualized returns. One-month T-bills, this is talking about from 1926, okay, 3.2%, but check out the deal, folks. Look at these numbers. This is what I really wanted to get to in this article, right? Check that out. 2022, one-month T-bills? Yeah, you weren't in some interest for the first time in a while. Five-year Treasuries, you got smacked. 20-year Treasuries, how about losing 26% of your investment investing in 20-year Treasuries? Well, my question would be, what are you doing locking in fixed income for 20 years if you ever need that money back at an interest rate that was almost generationally low? And yeah, granted last year it was particularly brutal for Treasuries, but how many people do you think knew that was possible? Well, if you run a $250 billion bank, folks, you better believe that that is possible. Long-term Treasuries, no strangers to decline. Rolling one-year return for 20-year Treasuries. It's been quite a few years, folks, but look at the numbers, man. There's been plenty of times when this thing has dropped, okay, not like we've seen since 1980. And what it has to do with is you're coming off such a low interest rate. You're coming off zero. It's remarkable in terms of that has been the exacerbated nature of all of it. You're coming off zero, so the capital hit. So I give a quick example, okay, and this is not correct math at all, but when I try to explain to people in my life, my friends, my family who are not in the investment world, to try and explain to them how higher price equals lower yield, this is such a great opportunity to try and educate people about bonds, capital requirements, market capitalization, just the straight-up value of a mark-to-market of a fixed-income security for longer duration, right? The simple part of it is as price goes up, yield goes down, because you're paying more for the same exact coupon return, basically. So what I do is I give an example. I say, listen, let's say interest rates are at 1%, which ballpark, not bad, right? Let's say interest rates are at 1%. Well, you buy a US 20-year treasury, and you're getting 1%, so what do you pay for it? You pay $100. So the coupon on that 20-year treasury, $1, is what you're getting, which is 1% of the $100 you put up, simple math, right? Now, let's say that the Fed has to hike to 10%, okay? So if the Fed has to hike to 10%, that means that your 1% return, which is $1 a year, is what you're getting. So basically what you do is you get to go to the market and you get to say, hey, market, I bought this 20-year treasury and I paid $100 for it. Market says, I don't care what you paid for it, man, things have changed, right? Take that 100, throw it out of the scenario. The only thing I care about is, what are you getting every year, because that's gonna decide what I'm willing to pay for it. You say, well, I'm getting $1 a year. Market says, well, $1 a year, man, I need 10% right now on my money because that's what the market's yielding. You say, so guess what, I want 10% on my money, what am I willing to pay? I'm willing to pay you $10 for that dollar return. Now, there's also the capital that's in there, there's the return of capital that $100 may come back to you at the end of it, right? But it's the simplest way to do it, folks. If interest rates go from 1% to 10%, you paid $100 for a $1 interest return every year, that same $1 is now only gonna be worth $10. That's what somebody would pay for a dollar if interest rates go to 10. Well, they didn't go from one to 10, but they basically went from zero to like five, okay? And you can see how that would be a 90% hit. Again, these are ballpark numbers, but when I'm explaining things to people to try and get them understanding, the power of 10, the powers of 100, it's right. Simple numbers for simple logic. That's the equation I work through and people tend to understand it. And it's so important because it's a quick demonstration of, hey, guess what? You locked in money at 1%, market now wants 10%. What's that dollar worth? The hell is worth 10 bucks, man? Well, I just paid 100. Well, guess what? You lost 90%. We're gonna be coming back for the open, folks. We'll talk some equities. We'll talk some ride sharing. Uber, Grubhub, Lyft, we'll be right back. Seems impossible to most people. They think it's too volatile and risky. Most people aren't going to take the time to educate themselves on how to do it right, but you're not most people, are you? At TFNN, you'll get the guidance you need to refine your strategies and techniques to invest like a pro, because you'll be a pro. All TFNN subscriptions, books, software, and courses are available at tfnn.com. And I'm even going to tell you how to get them for less. Use TFNN's tiger dollars and you'll get up to a 20% bonus on your purchase. And once you apply them to your account, tiger dollars are automatically used for all future or recurring charges. Tiger dollars also never expire, are fully transferable, and are a great way to add savings to your newsletters or services. Become the investor you were born to be at tfnn.com. TFNN, educating investors. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. And now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den, available to all tigers and tigeresses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. In the Tiger's Den, you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas, interact with other tigers and tigeresses as they share trading ideas, news analysis, and discuss the market action all trading day, even at night and on the weekends. The Tiger's Den at Discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well. So it's always at your reach. To sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders, just visit the front page of tfnn.com. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis, and it's not just dry, tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at tfnn.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN Educating Investors. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com. Welcome back, folks. We're at Markets Open right where we've been trading basically coming into the open. Little bit of volatility since that 8.30 PCE number income and outlays. We spiked to 4,088. We're trading at 4,093 right now. S&Ps up by 13, Nasdaq 100 up by a similar 13 right now. Dow up 140 and the Russell up by 14. VIX right now, volatility index, man. This is my chart to catch up with the fast open. VIX right now, $18.94 as we open trading. All right, jumping back to some of the ride-hailing companies. Uber down about 210%, excuse me, up about 210% today. We jump over to Lyft. Lyft up about a third. Scrub hub, is that grub hub? Scrub hub public. I should know this one. Let's jump back to the article. Let's see, what's their symbol again? No, I don't know. Is grub hub public recently? Let's see. Let me jump over here. Because this is talking about, yeah, I guess not, right? Well, we'll pull it up. What this article is talking about, folks, is that you have an ex grub hub driver wins a $65 case in an eight-year-old fight to be called an employee and the potential implications that it could have. I don't think this is gonna have the implications. Yes, there's gonna be speed bumps, folks, but I don't believe that you're gonna have these ride-hailing companies facing a massive change that all their employees are gonna be employees. It's funny how I call them employees, right? I call them employees. But are they contractors? Are they employees? It's a difficult one. It's too close, is the problem here. Is that it's too close, that it's never gonna be settled because there are reasonable arguments on both sides here. And I imagine that this stuff will eventually work its way up to the Supreme Court. Supreme Court, pretty conservative right now. I don't imagine that they're gonna call all of these employees employees because in the spirit of law, they could be contractors because you can just drive when you want. You can drive for different companies. You can drive for Uber. You can drive for Lyft. You can drive from grub hub. But nonetheless, you have a magistrate judge ruling that you had an aspiring actor. Aspiring actor, right? They're out there. Was in fact a grub hub employee? Not an independent contractor when he briefly drove for the food delivery service in 2015 and 2016. You talk about taking a while to play out in the courts, man. $65.11 he gets for his eight-year-old case for the minimum wage violations, but said he was doing nothing in overtime because he hadn't worked more than 40 hours in any week. Eight-year-old case closely watched in the gig economy industry. Now, the other part of this, okay. So grub hub maintained that specific driver and its other drivers are not employees because they set their own hours and operate more like freestanding businesses. It's a really close line, folks. And that's the reason why I don't think there's gonna be some catastrophic thing that ever comes down the line for these companies. The other thing to consider, okay, is that you saw this case take eight years to play out. Self-driving cars are coming, man. Okay? And these companies like Uber, Lyft, grub hub that are dependent on contractors or employees driving, that's gonna be a thing of the past in the next five, 10, 20 years. That's a long time. It's a wide-ranging basis of where that is. Anybody tells you, we know that exactly when that change is gonna come, that's their opinion. It's not a fact, because we've seen it play out before. Elon Musk has been telling us for five or six years that a fleet of self-driving cars that can drive from one point of the country to the other is coming basically in nine months. We've seen that play out and missed the mark dramatically to the tune where it's actually just a lie, because you can't say it's coming in nine months and then five years later, it's still not coming. Obviously it wasn't coming in nine months. If five years later, it's not coming. The driver met California's definition of an employee in several ways, including that his work for the company was not outside its usual course of business, okay? Here's the last part about this, I wanna say in California in particular, California, very liberal state, right? California voted that they think all of the employees are contractors. So, you see articles like this all the time, you take a look at the charts, there's Lyft, okay? You do get a little bit of a trade lower on the open and we jump over to Uber, Uber, excuse me. No reaction whatsoever, folks, and that's how I would take it. If you're trading either of these equities, I would not be too worried that somehow there's gonna be some ruling or abstract shift that's gonna define every employee because you have maybe the most liberal state in the union, California, their voters voting and saying, no, the basics of it are, we think that, no, they are contractors. And in theory, it's so close, it's such a fine line. Now, that doesn't mean you have to go both ways, folks. This debate is gonna be raging forever because we are in an economy that is a gig economy to certain degrees, but I see things play out like that. I see an eight-year-old case for $65. I see articles say it could shape things. And I have to say to myself, hold on a second, man, California just voted. You're telling me that the company is not gonna be able to challenge this somehow. It's gonna go to the Supreme Court, man. And there is something to be said over the fact that you had the citizens of that state, one of the more liberal states in the whole union, okay, voting to say, listen, we understand we want benefits for everybody, okay? We want jobs, but you can't just decide that. Now, it goes the other way. We could jump that into unions, folks, because unions, man. That's where all the power has been lost for employees. And it goes both ways, but boy, our parents' generation, my parents' generation, folks, and generations beyond that, I see my parents' generation and even my grandparents' generation. That's mostly passing away. Unfortunately, at this point in being lost, but unions are what gave them the ability to retire and earn a livable wage for companies that are making more money than any of us can comprehend. But this deal, I think that's a losing battle for a lot of those states thinking that they're gonna categorize all these employees as contractors, especially when you have the biggest state in the country, the most liberal state in the country, their voters speaking at the ballot box and saying, hey, that's not the way we interpret this and that's not what we want. It was such a simple case and you went to the voters of California. I think it would have been a simple one. They said, yeah, put them as employees. It's just not that simple, man. And you saw a play out. So keep that in mind when you see those headlines. All right, what else we got pulled up here? Yeah, we'll jump to, let's jump to a couple of the headlines. Tesla deliveries face one big question. Did the price cuts work? We're talking about deliveries, analyst estimates, Tesla shares on pace for the first best first quarter ever is the number. They're expected to announce quarterly deliveries in early April, okay? So April starts tomorrow, man. So you're gonna get that number. Analysts are looking for 421,164 cars up from 405. Maybe Elon will come out at 420,000. That'd be nice, right? Said Elon, he just tells people, you know what? Keep a few of those cars on the lot and we'll produce 420,000 cars anyway. You get the joke. And let's take a look at Tesla because it has been quite a run, man. You jump over to Tesla shares, you're catching a lift yet again today up 1.6%. We get the market rising, just a point away from 4,100 right now. We take a look at the daily on this equity. Tesla shares, you're looking for a 618 of this move, 235. We still got about $35 to go for the upside. That would be where we traded from November and that is a 618 of the entire move lower from 312 down to 100. And we've kind of just been oscillating around the 3.8 to a bit, the 3.8 to about 187. And we were just trading there, March 28th. We're trading at 198 right now for Tesla shares. All right, folks, come on back. We'll take a look at some of the fang stocks. We get the NASDAQ 100, man. We're in bull market territory. Microsoft, negative today though. What's going on, man? Apple shares, positive by a quarter percentage point. Stay tuned, folks, we'll be right back. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices. Get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman and your inbox every day. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. tfnn.com, educating investors. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years. A frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC, Tom O'Brien founded tfnn over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you. Tom's Daily Market Newsletter, Market Insights, is published every morning when the market opened to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed. These newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio. Get Tom O'Brien's newsletter, Market Insights, today, and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money-back guarantee at tfnn.com, tfnn, educating investors. Until the S&P 500 continue to climb, for bold trades on U.S. large cap stocks in either direction, trade SPXL, SPUU, or SPXS, directions daily, S&P 500, bull and bear, leveraged ETFs, direction leveraged ETFs. An investor should carefully consider a fund's investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses before investing. A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares. To obtain a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus call 866-476-7523 or visit directioninvestments.com. A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, Four Side Fund Services, LLC. This program is brought to you by VistaGold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Folks, I got a chart of the NASDAQ 100 up here. We make a spike low of 10,484 folks. We rise up to 13,135. That's a rise of about 2,650 points, and that is a 25.24% increase, man. And that's from the spike low on October 13th. And just like that, we are back to where we were on April 26th and the NASDAQ 100. We got the S&Ps right now approaching 4,100. And yeah, let's jump around some of those fact stocks, man. You talk about a run. How about Apple? Okay, you wanna talk about percentages, man. 162.84, from the 124.17 low, you're talking about $38.68, 67 cents. And yeah, that is a 31.15% increase from the lows and Apple is right back to pretty much the same price point, right? Now, I'm gonna go over these real quick, because that is literally the spike low of the year. Remarkable, Apple is up 31% this year, okay? But keep your eye on it, because Apple, man, these fact stocks are driving everything. And Apple shares, all you've done in Apple, folks, is you gave up basically one month of gains of a 14-year bull run. I mean, I chuckle, right? So there's 2008. My God. Apple's at a buck 73 to 182, and all you do is you give up a month of gains, let alone you back it up to where we were in the beginning of 2019 or the lows of COVID, 2020. I mean, it's just remarkable. I have to double check my math here, we're so far behind. Yeah, that's coming into COVID, you're at 80 bucks. You're dipped to 60. And this thing is back to where you were trading in December of 2021. I'm not so sure that's what Max Payne looks like, folks. Just something to keep in mind. As you got Apple up another quarter percent today, you jump over to Microsoft, as I said, basically flat for Microsoft shares at 284. You jump over to Google shares, a little bit of a different story versus Apple. Google, up three quarters percent. You take a look at longer term. I mean, what did I just say, man, remarkable, right? Where is Apple? Apple is back to where it was trading at in December of 2021. No, Google's at 100 bucks, it was trading at 140. There's nothing like Apple right now. Let's see how Microsoft is compared to where it was. Yeah, not even close. Well, close, $50 within, let's say, as this thing chopped around towards the end of 221 above 320, we're trading at 283. Meanwhile, Microsoft just traded from 220. So you're approaching 30% as well from Microsoft shares, remarkable. All right, let's jump around to some of the streamers. Netflix shares. Let's talk about a pullback, man. It trades up to the 382 of the entire move lower from 700 and change to 162, we'll call it. You trade up to a price point of 379. That's exactly the 382. It's also the area you chopped around at for the beginning of last year. On Netflix shares, we've backed off a bit. And Netflix restructures the film group as it scales back movie output. The streamer's gonna consolidate a couple of divisions that make films. The company is about to make fewer but better movies. You're seeing a change. You're seeing a transition here. They're gonna combine a couple of units that produce small and mid-sized pictures. That's gonna result in a handful of layoffs and a departure of two of its most experienced execs. You had one who led Netflix into stand-up comedy and original documentaries. They're gonna depart after 15 years. And then you have another vice president in the film group also leaving after more than a decade. Ian Brick and Lisa Nishimura. Brick helped make the Kissing Booth movie franchise and work with filmmakers. So you're seeing a change here. They kind of just sprayed the hose at every single type of production that they could find. Any type of content that they could produce, man, they were producing it. Not the case anymore. That's what will happen when your stock trades from 700 bucks to 162. You take a look at your expenses. You take a look at what you're doing. And yeah, they need to refine things now in terms of they have everybody on there. They got plenty of content, but you are facing some competition, man, from some streamers out there that have some really amazing programs. HBO Max is one of them that comes to mind. Warner Brothers Discovery. You jump over to Warner Brothers Discovery, man. Up from a low of eight bucks, you're sitting at 15. You jump over to the analyze tab. You take a look at the fundamentals of this company. And you're talking about a company right now valued at about $36 billion. So they got quite a valuation, man, even at $15. Now remember, as the S&Ps hit 4,100, remember this spike here, that was the Bill Hwang saga, okay? Not real numbers up to $78. Not real numbers at all. But you are gonna see this play out, folks. And boy, HBO right now. Have you watched The Last of Us? That's a good one. I'm hooked. Haven't made it quite through the first season yet. And then you got Succession. That their season just started, their final season just started last Sunday, I believe. Have not watched the first episode of that show, that final season have watched everything up until this season. Succession is a great one, folks. Haven't checked out Perry Mason. There you go, there's even more out there. So you're seeing that you need a few big shows, right? You don't need a million worthless small shows. You need a few big shows. Netflix is seeing that all the headlines are coming from shows like Game of Thrones that's now gone. But what have they got? They got the spin off there, which is pretty good. You got Succession. You got The Last of Us, et cetera. So Netflix making a little bit of a change there. And I'm sure that ties into everything in this market, talking about cost, talking about earnings, et cetera, and how much money you bring to the bottom line. And let's take a look at these S&Ps, man. And we continue to climb 4,100 on the dot on the S&Ps right now. So I talked about a couple of price points on this chart, folks. Let's back it up a little bit here. That gets you to, yeah, that gets you to that spike. So we've gotten it all back. You've gotten just above that level. You traded lower from where we were Chairman Powell. Now, what I can't comprehend, folks, in my head, fundamentally, okay? There's fundamentals, there's technicals. I like both of them. I try and combine them. Fundamentally, I understand that interest rates are gonna take maybe less aggressive of a policy in terms of the feds very worried about the banking crisis. But the only reason they might be less aggressive is because they're worried about the fragility of the banking sector, not because they've tamed inflation. Now we got some good numbers today, man, okay? But keep in mind, folks, the core number is still at 3.3%. On an annualized basis, that is still 3.6% annualized, and we're supposed to be getting back to two. It's close, but we still got some big data coming down the line, and it's gonna be an interesting one to say the least. Let's jump over to gold. Gold's sitting right at about 2,000. We got the spike high of 2,014. Back there in March 17th and 20th as we came into that weekend, when was that? Yeah, that was overnight coming into March 20th, 2014. We're sitting at 2,000 longer term. We go back to a five-year weekly on gold. You see a pretty important area, right? We spiked here in 2020. We spiked here in 22. We almost made it back up here in January to 1975, and we are sitting at a right nice round number. Doesn't get much rounder in gold. Then $2,000, we're sitting at 1,998 on the dot. The year I graduated high school, 1,998. Bonkers. I got my 25-year high school reunion coming up in a couple months, man. You talk about time flying, man. I remember when I was in high school and my mom had her 25-year high school reunion. I said, man, that is a lot of years that you've been out of high school. Here I am. Time goes quick, folks. My dad says, yesterday's gone, tomorrow's not here. What are you doing right now, man? 25-year high school reunion. I depart, but boy, that one. That one, wrap your head around that one, man. Time is amazing to say the least. 43, just turn 43. You got it, man. Just turn 43 this month. 43 going on 25. That's how I liked it. Why not, right? Stay young, folks. Stay young, that's the key. All right, we got the S&P sitting at 4,100, folks. Markets in positive territory. It's been quite a week. We got one more segment coming up. Don't go away. We'll take a look at some of the other equities moving this morning. I'll be right back, folks. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger Zen, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. And now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den, available to all tigers and tigers' for just $1 for the year. There's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders. In the Tiger's Den, you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas, interact with other tigers and tigers' as they share trading ideas, news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day, even at night and on the weekends. The Tiger's Den at Discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well. So it's always at your reach. To sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders, just visit the front page of TFNN.com. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices. Get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com, educating investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today, TFNN.com, educating investors. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Folks, we've got the S&Ps up by 21 right now sitting at 4,100. How about Nikola? Nikola, down 17%. You really can't even see the drop on this chart because we're dealing with such small numbers, man. $93.99, the spike in June of 2020. You got up to a high of $30 in January of 2021. You got up to a high of $11.87 last year and we zoom in on this year and you were up to as high as three bucks. But guess what, man? They are going to the public and they're raising $100 million for a stock offering and they're doing it at 20% below the market. Market says, well, that's all right, we're going to price it down about 20% man, this morning. Be careful, folks. You talk about gambling, man. You want some action, go down to the hard rock. Put some sweet action on that blackjack table and see how things turn out because you're picking up this stock. Yeah, you better believe that that's possible in terms of you go BK when you got that type of action and that type of price action to put it lightly. All right, jumping around to what else I had, just taking a look, folks. I wanted to bring this up real quick because this is the interest rates that you are able to get right now on CDs. I was talking about my dad about this recently. Now, you're hearing a lot about in terms of, and I'm going to pull it up at the same time, in terms of the yield curve. Now, talking about U.S. Treasuries right now. Excuse me, you get the five-year treasury. 3.64% is what the, we'll call 3.65. Five-year treasury right now, 3.65%. The two-year, 4.1%, okay? But that is not what is happening in CDs because banks need money. Banks are in trouble, man, and this is going to persist. They're having to pay higher rates to bring deposits back at the same time that you're seeing outflows, okay? At the same time that their balance sheet is taking a hit. So sometimes you're going to see those numbers. I just want to make sure as investors, okay? Out there that you know that these numbers are still here. Now, pay attention to the ones on the top because those are non-callable rates. The ones down here could potentially be callable, which is why you see a five-year at 4.8% here, but within a ladder, you're seeing it at 4.65. These numbers up here are non-callable. You build a two-year ladder, 4.92%. You build a five-year ladder, 4.78%. Folks, that is going to be a headwind for a while with those types of interest rates. Thanks so much, folks. Have a great Friday, have a great weekend. Thanks for starting your day. Stay tuned for Basil. He's up next, folks. Have a great one.