 Welcome to the last set of news like a top stories and crypto and bring out a bite-sized pieces today. Just as the thumbnail suggests, I am essentially writing off December, but December is still important for a couple different things. So we're going to go over a long laundry list of things of why it's important, but we're going to go over two things first. Then we're going to take a look at rebalancing and what Raoul Pal talks about as far as December and January and Q1 in 2022. We're going to take a look at the M1 supply and some on-chain analysis and where it talks about the different institutions that are coming in. Then we're going to talk about what to do with the money in the bank or what I'm doing with the money in my bank. And then lastly, we'll take a look at some options and some final thoughts. So before we get going, just like I recommended or talked about, I want to talk about two things. And you can see it right here. There is this issue that I see happening more and more, especially as the market starts to go down or move sideways or not. And it doesn't move as we expected it to. And I see a lot of what's called thumbnail investors. And those are the people that they just take a look at thumbnail and they assume what the video is about. And then they don't even watch the video and they make comments. So if you're here and you're watching, great, watch the whole video until you can kind of make your own basis about what's going on. Now you're going to see some comments in the comments section. It is what it is. So thumbnail investors, I gotta tell you, they don't really do too well in the long market. Sorry, that's just what it is. And then also, I know that we're going sideways and everything else, but and then people are kind of like, they're talking about jumping ship and doing all these great plays and leverage plays and trading them their way out of it. But in all honesty, it really comes out of this. This is Nick Murray. He was a, he's been in the investment game for decades, were a couple of bestselling books. And he says it perfectly. I've said, I've said this before, timing the market is a fool's game, whereas time in the market is your greatest natural advantage. I always just say time in the market is greater than timing the market. I just kind of paraphrase for it. And also you might remember this guy, Warren Buffett. I know he's not a big fan of cryptocurrencies, but his investment devices sound, you know, the real fortunes in this country have been made by people who have been right about the business they invested in and not right about the timing of the stock market. So look, I know right now it's, it's pretty easy just to, you know, kick back and go, damn it. You know, I was hoping that we'd be to the moon already in December. I thought we were going to go a little bit higher. I know we've got a little bit of time for December, but right now I think it's December 17th or 18th or 19th. Jeez. Really going fast. A lot of things been going on. Sorry. And so we've got about what, 11, 12 days. I was hoping for fireworks. Doesn't seem to actually be there. But again, time in the market is greater than timing the market. And I see that there's going to be some good things on the horizon. So just real quick, let's take a look exactly what that market is actually doing. And it's not so great right now. I mean, we're up a whopping 0.26%. Watch out 2.21 trillion. Wow, that's great. And we take a look at where the actual action is, as far as tokens or coins and whatnot. Bitcoin is hanging around at 47,000. So we lost that 50,000 spots. It seemed like everybody was talking about the 200 day moving average and TA people talk about, you know, this is where it's going. This is what it's going. And then you take a look at sentiment analysis. Well, it's going to do this. It's going to do that. In all honesty, no one knows. No one has any idea where things are going. We just can kind of like take a look at what's going on in the short term. I can't tell you what's going to happen in the short term. I have no idea. In the long term, I can tell you things usually do pretty well, even in the traditional market. Go figure. Let's see. Is anything up? I think that's a bigger question. Anything up? That we could take a look at it last hour. Life coin. Okay. Up 4%. Great. Nothing really great. And everything's pretty much moving sideways. So, well, it is what it is. So that's what we have in the market. And this is what it brings me down to. There was a great interview. And it was on Real Vision Crypto. And there's a couple of people you might actually recognize. You got Raul Powell, gentleman there from the Defiant Ones. And then Camille Rousseau over to the right. She's the one that wrote the Invisible Machine. Matter of fact, she's going to be on the show tomorrow talking about how they're turning the Invisible Machine book, which is all about the Ethereum foundation and how it came to be. And they're actually turning that into a movie. So I'm going to ask her a couple of questions. But there's a pretty good snippet in here out of the whole 30 minutes. It's a great discussion. I'll link in the description. But this part here where Raul was talking about how do things that you see as far as the charts and where things were going in 2017, how it diverged, and where are things going? And then he's going to talk about a little word here that I think is pretty important called rebalancing. So just take a listen to this video. Hi, you, Raul. What are you seeing for the next show? I'll just go through your tweet thread where you were talking about people being scarred by past cycles and then being optimistic. We haven't seen a blow off top yet. Yeah. So if I look at the structure of the market, it started diverging from the previous patterns of 2017 and Bitcoin 2013, which was interesting because they were completely mirroring it, and then it started changing. And it's something that I've been suspecting was going to happen because the participants in the space have changed. And everybody in it from the past, when it purely retail, haven't got their heads around this. So what happens at the end of the year is firstly, there's the tax stuff that we know, and that's probably usually been the tipping point for crypto after it's had the huge run at the end of the year. But significantly, institutions tend to rebalance portfolios. So they will rebalance to go back to their waiting. Let's say their waiting was 1% or 2%. They will sell down on their position. So that tends to drag into year end. Hedge funds, because they want to get paid, want to close their books, because then that's where their P&L is marked and then they get paid on their performance fees. So there's a lot of incentivization to actually take profits. Now, that's not profits of people who want to be out of the crypto market. It's just driven by investor metrics. So when you come into January, I used to see this in the hedge fund industry, I write about it every year in Global Mac and Investor. There's a phenomenon that happens every January is everybody comes in with a brand new P&L. And they're like, well, what can I do today? Now, we've got a ton of crypto hedge funds, traditional hedge funds and crypto. So those guys are going to come to their desk, they've squared their book. What are they going to do? They're going to buy crypto. So and the institutions, I mean, I know this because I'm first-hand conversations with so many is they spent the whole year getting the approvals, getting the custody, getting their accounts on boarded with whoever it is. And then the next step is, well, our mandate for 2022. So I see a huge amount of mandate from institutions actively putting money into the market. So my guess is there's a lot of people who think that maybe the cycle's topped, maybe it's done. I think it's a temporary phenomenon. It probably absolutely rips and it may rip from kind of next week when most of the institutional guys have gone home. And we see that often in financial markets, because then what happens is it's very thin liquidity. And there's a bit of a panic to get into the positions. And that usually goes through. So I think next year is probably stronger in the first half of the year than anybody imagines, because everyone thinks it should have finished now at the end of the year because that's previous cycles. Yes, there's a lot to unpack there. I mean, what Raul just said, it makes you pause and think. First of all, the first thing I thought about was we've always heard about institutions being here. You know, we hear like, oh, I mean, I heard this back in 2017, institutions are coming or they're here, there's some here. And then of course, 18 was just an awful year in 2020. In 2020, we kind of heard in 2021, here we are with institutions. So the real question is, I mean, are they really here? We hear about the stories and we hear about that they're here, but are they actually buying? And that actually comes through with, because leading to my next point, as we're talking about on-chain analysis first, and then M1 supply. So there is a great diagram here. This is from into the block. Let me blow this up. And what this is, it talks about large transactions. And it takes a look at any transaction that is above 100,000, which goes to one location only, not back and forth, just one location. There's another metric for that, which kind of, it doesn't give the full picture. So this one right here, large transaction volume in USD for on-chain analysis. You can see that what we have here is the prices in black and the trade volume is in blue. So anything above 100,000, well, that could be potentially a whale, sure, or maybe just a little bit of institution action right here. So we can see in 2018, yeah, blip, right? But what's amazing to me is that if you kind of scroll in, and kind of like we talk about zooming in, which is not a great idea if you don't want to do too much, usually we zoom out, but we zoom in and get to get the data, we can see that, yeah, there's a lot of different plays that's especially in 20, a little in 2018, not too much, then a little spike here before 2020 action. Then 2021, you can just see that, of course, the price goes up, but you see what's happening here is that the transactions that are 100,000 or greater goes 2X, 5X, 10X, 20X, 100X. And now here we are in 2021, and towards the tail end. And of course, there's a lot of money being on the side. Now could that be just a bunch of whales? I don't think so. There's only so much money to go around. You really don't have a bunch of billionaires just sitting around going, I want to buy that, buy that, and then have that kind of volume. You could, but usually from what the on-chain metrics will tell us, is that yes, it looks like there are a lot of institutions actually coming in. So then the next part I always think about is this is, well, these institutions are here, then why haven't they gotten in? Well, of course, what Raul was talking about, which makes sense, we talked about this before, is that there's a bunch of CEOs and insiders. They just sold $69 billion with the stock because they had to sell off before the end of the year. And they could be a little bit frightened about what's going on potentially with the capital gains tax adjustment for next year. But what they're doing is they're selling off for taxes. And we know that this is going on. But also if you think about it, if they're selling off for taxes, I guarantee they're not keeping in cash. And I can tell you why they're not keeping in cash because of this metric right here. This is from the Economic Research or the Fed from St. Louis. And you can just take a look here. This is the M1 money supply. What's the M1 money supply? If we take a look here, before May 20 doesn't matter. Beginning May 2020, M1 consists of one currency outside the US Treasury, Fed Reserve Banks, and the value of depository institutions. It's also other liquid deposits consisting of OCDs and savings. And then this is also demand deposits at commercial banks. So pretty much, it's pretty much the big source of money supply. And you're going to see what's going on here. This is in billions, in billions. And for the longest time, 1960 all the way down here, look at how much we printed in 2020. You can't make this up. So if you're a pretty savvy investor, or you have a large corporation, you don't want to keep all your cash, all your value, I should say, in fiat. You're going to put those into other types of assets. So what are those assets that they're probably talking about? Well, just like Powell was talking about, they probably take a look and say, well, we need to get everything in order, our custody in order. We want to rebalance. And of course, we need to lock in these profits for hedge funds. So they're going to get into partially crypto and digital assets. And actually, I've got Anthony Scaramucci coming on the show in first week of January. He's got his hedge fund. I'm going to ask him, if he sees the same thing, what he thinks as far as like January, that would be like from the insider, the insider of insider's mouth. So we'll see how that actually goes. But if that's you, no, taking a look at this, I wanted, I wanted the big fireworks to just didn't happen. And that's why I talked about in the beginning. Yes, it's awful. But again, time in the market is greater than timing. It'll be easier for me just to, you know, last year, just say, Hey, I'll see in four years. And then we'll see how it goes. But it doesn't work like that. We have to deal with the emotions, take a look at what's going on, kind of just go, Okay, well, should I sell? This is the best thing for me and my family. Is this my goal? Because Hey, my goals aren't your goals type of thing. And you really have to just take a look at what is the best part. Now, me personally, I've always said, I'm going to dollar cost average in and I'm going to dollar cost average out. And I've, I've kept myself up to that. It was very hard this year to, you know, sell when I, when I said I was going to, but I had to because I had a plan and I kept that plan of action. And now here we actually are. Now here's the other problem on the flip side. Now that you sell a little bit. I didn't sell a ton. But what I try to do is I still need to get into assets because if I just have cash sitting there, what am I going to do? And this kind of comes down to the question that, you know, we're talking about the beginning is the money in the bank, what are we doing here? So if we keep money in the bank, we're going to get screwed over by inflation. Here's a great picture from Sal. And he says, here's, here is wood, January 2020 for a thousand bucks on the left hand side. Here's wood, $1,000 on June 2021. Now, of course, people can argue they say, well, that's just not inflation. Totally. You know, that's also the supply chain. Sure, I can give you that. Obviously the supply chain is a little bit broken here. But don't you think that a little bit of the money supply and inflation might have affected that. And then also this actually came up yesterday. I was with one of my real estate agents. And he said, Jorge is like, hey, man, what are you doing with all these different sales? He's like, well, I'm trying to, you know, purchase more assets like the houses here and flip them, but I can't because there's no inventory here in Puerto Rico. So I'm just sitting on, just sitting on my hands, watching my money just go up in fire because of inflation. I was like, wow, this is one of the few people actually knows about inflation. And of course, we talked about crypto and things like that. But these types of things is like, he's like, he gets it, he needs to put it into some type of asset. And that's why the revenue that came forth from my crypto sales as I went along, I didn't just keep it in there. I actually put it into hard assets like real estate. Was this the best time to buy real estate? Well, probably not. It wasn't like the best lowest prices of all time. However, short term rentals, it works out pretty well. And I'm actually going to be a video pretty soon. It's going to be, I won't give the title. I've actually talked about this in my Twitter account. So the last thing I will say is this, if you're trying to think about like, what do I do? Do I keep it into crypto? You probably do pretty well with that or digital assets? Yeah, sure. But however, there's another option. It's just what I'm also doing. This is 5% of my allocation. That little thing called Masterworks. This is one of those assets that are totally uncorrelated to the markets. Doesn't matter if traditional, doesn't matter if it is with crypto. This is uncorrelated because guess what? When you're investing into fractionalized shares of multimillion dollar pieces of art, the ultra rich don't care what's going on because they're ultra rich. They still want to buy this. So this to me is something that I get into. And also, I want to protect some of my wealth with a Roth IRA with I trust capital. On top of that, I'm also investing into real estate. And on top of that, I'm putting a little bit of dry powder on the side for when the next big dip comes. And I have bought nearly every single dip, but it's getting a little bit harder because I just purchased a pretty massive piece of real estate. And that's what's going on. So look, I know it was a little bit pretty short and sweet today. So not too bad. But look, if you liked the video today, give it a thumbs up, give it a like, also consider subscribing. I think we talk about our time sensitive. And that's it for today. So thanks so much for watching. I appreciate it. And I'll see you on the next one.