 Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. People play stocks, people placed, I mean, yeah, Roku looks great for tomorrow. People play stocks with the high of the day, low of the day stop. So if you're short, if you were short in a video, right, at 93, it was just the high of the day, whatever it was, 92, 70, whatever it was. That was just the low of the day. So stops are being triggered. You need that second wave, that, you know, you need some really aggressive buying to come in, you know, to take it over the top. So that's why, you know, people, you know, people get infatuated by, you know, the stocks at the high of the day means nothing. The stocks low of the day means nothing. The key is to capture it on the first two candles, you capture the trend. So if you look at the early pivots, right, if you look at the early pivots versus the continuation, right, because these are all continuation. Think about the difference, right, think about the difference, right. So Alibaba actually like very much for tomorrow as well. But just think about the difference, right, once they cleared out the seller, right, once they cleared out the seller at 95, right, once they cleared out the seller at 95, that that turns, you know, that turns into the confirmation trade. If you're buying it anywhere around here, right, this is just all continuation. So you're hoping it goes higher. You know, here's your channel and again, take the reload seller out of it most of the day, right, here's your channel. So I would rather be wrong here than being wrong here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here. This is all, this is all one big continuation. Of course it could go higher, right, of course it could go higher like the video as well, right. So this was the, think about what you're doing, just think about what you're doing here, right. This is the pivot, right, this is the second entry, if I didn't screw up the trade here. So here was the second, you know, here was the channel. So it broke this channel. So here is the, here's the pivot, here's the confirmation, all above here, here, here, here, here, here, here, this is all continuation. You don't know how high the stock can go, right, you're hoping, you're guessing, but this is the channel, this is the pivot, this is everything else above this is all continuation. That's why again, buying the high of the day just doesn't make sense. Right, your probability gets, your probability of success goes lower and lower the further it is, right, the further it is away from this channel. Right, so if you look at Apple, for example, right, if you look at Apple, for example. Right, so here was the pivot, these two, these three candles with the pivot, what was it? 251.50, right, 251.50, so this is the pivot, right, this is the channel. Up here you can make another case, okay, 52.70, okay, right, but anywhere above this channel at the highest, any point, okay, this is all continuation. Okay, maybe goes to here, maybe comes back here, maybe goes up to here, maybe comes back here, but the channels that it's setting, those are the channels that the highest probability to continuing. That's why the biggest move on the video went from 257.360, right, that's the biggest move, think about it, that's the biggest one candle move because that was the confirmation. So if you look at all these things over and over and over again, right, like look at Netflix, just to give you an example, right, this was the channel, right, this was the channel here, again, granted, it went up all on one candle. I got that, we got that part, that part we can't control, okay. The 371 was the whole channel, right, buying it up here, buying it up here, here, here, here, here, here decreases your probability of the stock working because again, this was the channel, correct, this was the channel here. If you look at the smoothest pivot on Tesla today, correct, if you look at the smoothest pivot on Tesla today, right, where was it, it wasn't here, it wasn't here, it wasn't here, it wasn't here, right, this one had a five minute band. It was right here, right guys, it was right here, granted, again, to say this with tongue in cheek, it only put up a $7 candle, right, we're obviously talking about it. This reports 833 new deaths, unfortunately. Okay, so, right, but the highest probability was the second entry off this channel, one hour, two hour, three hours, four hours, five hours, you had six hours of data. So if you look where the highest probability of this trade was, was here, we know why it stopped here, right, this last trade half hour ago, we know why it stopped here, there was a five minute band, okay, we knew why it stopped. But again, if you look at where the highest probability was, it was off this channel. So the idea of the stock is strong is not stock is strong, the stock is strong, oh, the stock only went up 20 cents from where I bought it, because the pivot probably was $3, $4 lower. So you're telling me, right, so let's, let's pretend that Alibaba pivot was a reload, so it wasn't there. So you actually think there's a higher probability buying it Alibaba at 96 that it wasn't 95, but doesn't make sense, right, doesn't make sense. So you need a channel, okay, there's a difference between confirming a channel, right, and confirming a price. Think about that. Guys, think about that statement. If you put this on a sticky pad and put it in front of you, right, if you literally stare at what I just wrote, there's a difference between confirming a channel and confirming a price, right. At 71, Netflix was confirming a channel. At 73 was confirming a price. 71 was the channel. 73 was the price. 71 gave the $3 candle. 73 gave what, 50 cents, 60 cents, 70 cents, big difference, correct? So when you're putting on a trade, okay, when you're putting on a trade, number one, you want to avoid the high of the day, right, you want to avoid the high of the day. So for example, look at Facebook. Again, this is a perfect example, the difference between confirming a channel and confirming a price, right, right here, confirm the channel, correct? Guys, everybody see that? Right here is confirming a channel. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, you got seven candles, you have seven hours of data. Here it confirmed the channel. Here you're confirming a price, and that's my point. Maybe it goes higher, and maybe it doesn't. So the person who buys it here, right, maybe it goes higher, maybe it doesn't. But here's the difference between confirming a channel and confirming a price. Guys, everybody see that? Folks, is everyone understand what I'm saying? There's a difference. This price means nothing. Price means nothing, right? Price means absolutely nothing. Like, again, if Tesla goes higher today, right, if Tesla goes higher today, just think about this. Think about this for a second, right? If this band, right, if this band here drops down to, say, 522, right? Let's just pretend. I'm just using random examples, right? Let's pretend Tesla drops down to 522. So let's say you get long at 521, right? You get long at 521. Again, is that a channel or is that a price? There's no channel. There's one candle, right? There's one candle, and the next one was a reversal. There's no channel here. Maybe this will be a channel for tomorrow, but there's no channel. It's just the higher today, right? And let's say the stock goes up a dollar, right? It goes up a dollar from this channel, and then crashes down five, right? Again, there's no risk reward there. Again, any five-year-old can identify the – again, when my daughter was two, I bet you she turned around and said, yeah, this is the high of the candle, okay, right? But again, if there's a channel to be formed, you see it? There's a channel to be formed, right? It's trying to form a channel, okay? The longer it goes sideways, it's going to form a channel. So if this five-minute band gets below the area, now it will, right? So that 514 area. At least we have a whole channel. Everybody see that? We have a whole channel to confirm. We don't care about a price, right? We don't care about the price at 521. We're hoping it goes 514 to 521. Everybody understand that? 514 to 521. 521 doesn't mean anything. 521 is a random number. Who cares? Okay, it stopped at 521. Who cares about that 521? And that's my whole point of trying to get as much as possible you can get done in the morning because the afternoon is all continuations. These are all numbers. They mean nothing. You can look at any single chart, literally any single chart right now, any random chart, and you'll see the difference between a channel that it confirmed earlier this morning and why the stock is moving up now. Again, everybody sees why the market is moving up now. The Dow is up 1200 points. So of course, can the video wake up and close at 66? Absolutely, right? What are we naive to think? The video can't run up another $4, right? You think Netflix can run up another $5? If we have another 500-point explosion into the close, of course it can, right? Absolutely. But again, know the difference and understand the dynamics between buying the high of the day versus confirming a channel, right? It's a huge difference. Again, if you notice, your biggest failures are going to come in the afternoon. Your biggest failures are always going to come in continuation channels, right? Flip a coin. A channel is 80-20, right? A channel is 80-20, 85-15. A continuation candle is 50-50. It's 50-50. Again, I've been trading these pivots for over eight years. I know the difference between a channel and a price. There's a huge difference. And the reason why I predominantly do not trade in the afternoon, these are just continuation prices from the channels from this morning. So if I like, for example, if I like Netflix, it's going to be for tomorrow, right? Netflix is setting up a channel right now, right? You can see it's setting up a channel. One, two, three, four, five, right? Even though this is the high of the day, I would rather play this high of the day tomorrow than play it today, right? Unless the market, again, unless I see the futures exploding, the Dow is up 1,500, 1,600, 1,700 points. That's a whole conversation. Again, you can't anticipate that happening, right? But guys, does everybody at least see the next channel that's forming for the next day, right? One, two, three, four, five. Going into the next day, you'll have six, seven, eight, nine, 12, 15 candles until they open, right? And it confirms this channel. This will be lower. This will be the next leg up. That's my point. You need to have structure. You need to have a structure channels. That's why I joked around. That's why I joked around with Nick and I said, at 373, you know, how do we split 100 shares? 108 ways, right? How do we split that 100 shares? 108 ways? So you tell me that 373 was, that was the spot? This is a spot that everybody has to go into, right? And again, it went up what, 50 cents, 60 cents? The same pivot, right? Tomorrow morning, we'll give you $3, $4. So that's my point, guys. Again, you have to slow down, okay? You have to slow down. You have to stop trading in the afternoons. Again, NVIDIA, yes, is the strongest stock on the board. What I want to put an entry into it right now, why? Why? Like why? Right? I'd rather lose money, and I say this as a joke, but I'd rather lose money buying the 514 confirmation on Tesla going to the high of the day than buying NVIDIA at the high of the day and losing a dollar. Right? Guys, I remember what I'm saying. So I would rather, I would rather enter, I would rather enter Tesla above the sneaky area here confirming the five minute, right? Confirming the five minute as well, 65, right? And maybe if the futures are strong, this damn thing puts in a candle to 521, right? At least we have $7. Guys, think about this. At least we have $7 of upside before it takes out the high of the day. What are you, I mean, again, how much, how much are we arrogant enough to think you're going to keep on getting dollars after dollars after dollars just buying stocks at the high of the day? Why even think? Just put in a buy stop for every single stock taking out the high of the day, right? If that was a valid way, correct? If that was a valid way of making money, then put in a buy stop literally at every stock at the high of the day, right? There's a reason why people don't do that. Think about that. There's an absolute reason why people just don't put random stops at the high of the day. Again, you can look at any high of the day price. Somebody bought net, somebody bought net, excuse me, somebody bought Facebook at 62, 62, 70. Why? Why did that person have to buy Facebook at 62, 70? What's the logic? Why? Because it's going to 170, says you. Why do you have to get along Facebook at 62, 70? If the confirmation channel was 61, why are you buying the stock at 62, 70? If the confirmation on the video was 57, why are you buying the stock at 63? Again, the more you think about it, the more you think about the logic, the more you absolutely think about the logic of what I'm saying, it makes total sense. It makes total sense. You have a safety net. You have a safety net in the first two candles of the day. The second entry could go as far as it wants, Jean, as long as it's the first two entries of the day. Everything else throughout the day has to be a sneaky entry. It has to be a sneaky entry. Again, this pivot on Netflix was not wrong. Think about this. I wasn't here to see it, but this pivot on Netflix wasn't wrong. It took out 72.50. It stopped at 73, correct? It stopped at 73. It came in the second. Again, I can confirm this on the five-minute channel, correct? It stopped at 72, right? 72.50, correct? 72.50, right? 72.50, put in the high, right? Put in the high, what was the initial high? Put in the initial high of 73.18, right? 73.18, came back in and it took out that 73.18. Again, I bet you it was thin and I bet you it was a big spread, so take that for what it's worth, and then the stock moved to 74, right? But at least that was a sneaky entry. Again, forget about how thin it is, how crappy it fails, all that stuff, but at least you could understand the dynamics. If you're buying now at Netflix, unless the stock market is up 15, 16, 1700 points, again, if that's your case and you want to trade a quarter size with a dollar risk, you absolutely could. If the market does go up 500 points, another 500 points from here, yeah, this Netflix is going to go. Of course it's going to go, right? Of course it's going to go. Every stock is going to go. Every beta name is going to wake up and go. But that's the difference, guys. There's a huge difference between buying price and buying a channel. Monster difference. Monster difference. And this is why, again, I keep on telling people, stop trading in the afternoon. What you think you're going to get 50 cents in the afternoon, you'll get $5 the next day. So why are you continuously pushing in the afternoon? Pushing, pushing, pushing. There's nothing there. There's nothing there. Traders are burnt out already. Look, nobody came in long time. Who the hell came in long today? The way the market was acting? Unless you're positioning as a fund for five, 10 years, who the hell is coming in long today? On that close for the whole week that the beta names didn't even rally one day? Think about that. So who the hell is celebrating up $1,200? So the intraday ranks are the most important parts. So it's crucial. It's absolutely crucial to understand the difference between continuation and channel. Continuation or channel. Everything that you're seeing right now is continuation, but the exception of Tesla. The exception of Tesla. Everything you see right now is confirmation. So that's what I'm saying, guys. Try to get as much as you can in the morning. And then if you want to play with your profits, you know, allocate 10, 15% of your profits and then trade them in the morning and then trade in the afternoon if you have to trade. But you know, again, don't be naive. Again, if something is stretched out, how do you feel like you have an edge? It doesn't make sense. Think about it this way. If you jump off the first floor out of a building, right? You're probably going to survive. Now think about this. No, I want you to think about this. If you jump off the first floor of a building, you're probably going to survive. Right? You're probably going to survive. This is reality. You're probably going to survive. If you jump off the second floor of the building, okay, you're probably going to survive, but you're probably going to break your legs, right? Think about it. Think about the analogy. First floor, first candle, second floor, second candle, right? Unless it's Jackie Chan. By the time you get to the third floor, okay, by the time you get to the third floor, I promise you, you will not survive. Right? I promise you. And somehow if you do survive, right? And if you do survive, I'm saying if you do survive, right? If you do survive the third floor, okay, you're probably in the intensive care unit for a long time. If you try from the fourth floor, you die automatically. So look at the stages of trading like that every single day. First floor, first candle, second floor, second candle. By the time you get to the third floor, you're in God's hands. Congratulations for putting in the time to take control of your trading. You're one step closer to owning your future and achieving the success you desire. Want daily trade ideas directly from Dan? Straight off his personal watch list? Unlock our free PS60 vault where you'll get nightly updates on pivot opportunities we're watching for the next day's session. Click the link in the description to get started today.