 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Ask us access to trader.com nightly update show. Everybody is doing well. If you are brand new to the channel, thank you very much. We are trying to get the word out of unbiased technical analysis. It's not sexy. There's no predictions where I think a stock is going to be a year from now. There's no guesswork. It's basically, again, just taking data, literally taking data every single day on the research and waiting for channels to confirm. This has been the consistent message for year in, year out since I started this platform 14 years ago. And if you've been following along guys, thank you very much. We really appreciate your support. If you are brand new, all we ask is take a second, literally take a second, hit the like button, subscribe, share, telephone, right? Telefriend and we'll continue to provide hopefully some good content that you guys can use for the next day. So if you've just been watching this channel for the last four days, you kind of know a couple of things happen. We were talking about it. We were preparing for it. And we definitely capitalized on it. And that's the most important part. And that was the loss of the 50 day moving average on the spies and most recently the cues. And you could tell what happened. We went through that 435 level. We touched down to the next support at 430. Say we lost that 430 support and now we are a stone throws away for the next support that should be a soft landing coming up roughly around the 422 level, right? That's kind of the big deal. The SPY, you know, same thing, you know, same thing, lost 509 on the 50 day moving average got below the 502 rising support. And now you have room all the way down to this 491 level. Keep this in mind. Just because the market is below the 50 day moving average doesn't mean the market will go down every single day. The problem is a lot of traders think as soon as there's an uptake that is the bottom, right? Again, there is no bottom. The only way to find the bottom of a move is when they reclaim back the 50 day moving average. And then you can turn around that day and say, hey, remember, one day we reversed, that was the bottom. That's the only way you'll know that's the bottom. Right now, you still have measure potential both on the QQQ and the SPY. And that's what we've been kind of reiterating day after day after day. Don't buy stocks at the strength. I'll tell you it was a perfect example. SMCI got upgraded today, right? Got upgraded today and they pulled it. And NVIDIA got upgraded yesterday and they pulled it. And we'll get to NVIDIA in a second. But the most important part is I see a lot of new traders still making the same mistake. Number one, when the market was ripping every single day above the 50 day, people were trying to short the market every single day and the market ran over traders for a full, you know, 15 months. Again, you can't pick a top and there's no way you could pick a bottom as well. So stop trying to buy the dip. Stop trying to figure out where the selling is going to stop. Guys, remember, we're only day three, right? We're only day three below the 50 day moving average. Again, look back to 2022. This is a very, very dangerous game traders are playing. Look what happened. We lost the 50 day moving average in 2022, right? This is a 13 month sell site. There was periods that it got back above the 50 day moving average but as soon as it lost it again, started a massive, massive selling. So don't try to be, you know, don't try to guess. I hear all the time, hey, damn, this stock is at the bottom. This is the bottom. Guys, we're day three below support. The market last year rallied gazillion points, okay? You can't tell me day three under a major technical damage, we're close to a bottom. Again, you need to test major levels. The only way stocks get put in any type of bottom is when sellers get tied. Okay, when bad news starts getting engulfed, the same way, how do you know there's a rolling top, right? When good news gets sold. So again, for example, going back to what I said a second ago, SMCI got upgraded today and they reversed the stock from literally, from what was it? They reversed the stock pre-market from this 1120 area all the way back down to 949. So if they're selling off good news, we're nowhere, again, we're nowhere near that. And that's the most important part. You see traders trying to buy the dip. Guys, buy the dip only works above the 50 day. It only works above the 50 day. What you want to do is you want to sell pops. You want to sell pops into supply and that's been kind of the message every single day, whether it's on in the webinar, on social media, on YouTube. Again, what you want to do is in a strong market, you want to buy stocks into rising support. In a weak market, you want to short gap ups into supply because there's no room for them to run. There's technical damage and they run back into supply. They're going to get rejected and that's exactly what we've been seeing now for the last couple of days. And this is why the market continues to go lower, but that catalyst was the 435 breakdown of the QQQs. And now we have a measured potential move on 422 coming up, whether it comes up tomorrow, the next day, whatever the case may be. But again, as we've been saying for the last three days, the longer we continue to build below the 50 day moving average, the higher probability we're going to continue to go lower. The biggest take away what I saw from today, we'll get to the pinnets in a second. Really, really strong moves today. Congratulations guys. A lot of you guys did very, very well. The biggest takeaway, the group that led us up was the semiconductors, right guys? I don't think there was a bigger run up that we had in the semiconductor space. And we're going to use the SMHs here as a proxy. The SMHs today and obviously the stocks that represent SMHs, some of the high flyers, the AMDs of the world, the SMCIs of the world, NVIDIA, NVIDIA of the world, the AMATs, and on and on and on and on. The ASMLs and LRCXs of the world, the Texas Instruments of the world. So this is the group that led us up. Why am I bringing this up today? Well, this is the first close below the 50 day moving average on the SMHs as well. Again, we just went through a whole little quick history lesson the last four days of what happens on the stock or an ETF or anything loses the 50 day moving average. So if the SMHs get confirmed tomorrow and start losing today's channels tomorrow, well then you have another $3, $4 down to this 207, 209 level and obviously any close below 207 has a bigger measure potential all the way down to 198. But again, I don't want to put the cart in front of the horse there. But if you look at some of the semiconductor names, you can see the violation, right? The violated names. AMD has been smoked ever since it lost the 50 day moving average. The stock has been absolutely smoked. Look at NVIDIA, right? Look at NVIDIA here. NVIDIA is so close. Guys, look how close we are for NVIDIA losing the 50 day moving average. Guys, look how close this is. The low odd on April 9th, if this thing starts violating the April 9th lows and we lose the 50 day moving average, right? That's not a good thing. Okay. That's definitely not a good thing. So you have to be really, really conscious of that fact alone. But again, you look at a lot of things in the semiconductor group. AMAT looks like it's about the full of the cliff if it confirms below this 198 level. So there's a lot of names. If you go through the semiconductor list, you can see a whole bunch of charts in that space that's ready to rock and roll. Name like Tesla has been now below this whole range here for the last couple of days. It didn't take out the previous days highs. It didn't take out the previous days low. It's just kind of going sideways again. The longer it goes sideways, the higher probability it'll start attacking this bottom channel here. We saw again 140, 145 exploration for the next couple of weeks. So look, I'm not, again, I think a lot of new traders, they take these type of conversations to heart. Guys, I'm not a bull. I'm not a bear. I'm not trying to incite a ride here for permeables. I'm an opportunist. Okay. I trade both sides of the market. When things are bullish, I love a great bull market. When things are bearish and you get a clear, clear sell signal. Yeah, that's the way you want to be. So you see a lot of new traders in their feelings. Show it off. The market's going to go higher. Okay, great. Again, who are you mad at? Are you mad at me? Are you mad at yourself? The market's going to go with or without you. It doesn't make a difference if you're sitting in a position that you're stuck in. The dynamics of the market has changed. You have to be an adult about it, right? The market goes up. The market goes down. The market goes above the 50 days bullish. The market below the 50 days bearish. That's the bottom line. So whether you're in your feelings or you're upset about something, again, there's no manipulation. There's no manipulation. There's nobody pulling the strings. Your entry was just wrong. That's it. Your entry was just wrong and now you're stuck in the position. Whether you admit it or not has nothing to do about me making a video or somebody else's opinion of where the stock is going to go. The stock is either going to go or it's not. Either going to make you whole or it's not. So the idea that somebody's saying something bad about your stock, it's childish. It's ridiculous. Like, I love Tesla. There's nobody that loves Tesla, but the exception of Elon Musk is more than me. But damn it, I will trade this thing up, down, and sign. Or maybe not sign, right? Look, here's a perfect illustration of what we've been talking about, right? Once Tesla lost a 50-day moving average, this is the reality. This is where we are right now. We're talking about 80 points lower. Had nothing to do with me, right? The fact that we shorted below the 50-day moving average was just a technical signal in pretty much every rally. They got stuffed into higher, honest. But the point is, if you're sitting there and you're in your feelings and you're upset about somebody saying bad things about your stock, it's not personal. The market goes up. The market goes down. If you're not mature enough to understand this, maybe you don't have the mental makeup to do this for a living. You have the mental capacity to do this on any capacity that's more than part-time, more than a hobby, and that's okay as well. So use this opportunity to ask yourself a question, right? If you're still in your developing stages, you've got to ask yourself a very simple question. Do I want to become a trader and trade both sides of the market? Because again, God gave us two hands, two eyes, two ears, right? Two feet, right? The markets give us two sides of the market. Or do I want to be a trader buying stocks in the bull market? That's all you have to ask yourself. You have to be very, very honest with yourself. Because again, years ago, I asked a question. I go, well, why don't you trade both sides of the market? And somebody asked me, well, I only buy breakouts. Well, what do you do in the bear market? And the person's answer was, what do you mean? Well, this is what I mean. You can't buy stocks and the strength in a sell environment, and that's what we have right now. So again, look, put yourself in a position, learn to trade both sides of the market. It's not personal, guys. Only new traders and novice investors are personal about these stocks. You know, whether Tesla was a 4,000 or whether Tesla was a 400 or whether Tesla's going to be a 40, I'll still have an opportunity to trade on both sides of the market. And that's what your goal is. Do you want to be a professional trader? Or do you want to buy stocks for a living as a bull market, as a bull market participant? And that's fine as well. But the last thing you want to hear is, the last thing you want to hear is somebody giving their opinion and you're outlashing that they're wrong. Okay, they're wrong. I'm wrong. Let's just say I'm wrong, right? 435 breakdown on the Q's never happened. 235 breakdown on Tesla never happened. Nothing ever happens, right? You're in your own world. God bless. Keep sipping your tea. But again, if you're a professional trader and you've been through bull markets and bear markets, you understand this is not a personal thing. We trade the ticker. We don't care which side of the market we're on. We trade the ticker and we're going with momentum, not against it. So let's talk about today's pivots. Again, you had some really, really aggressive moves down. Continue to trade the same fashion. Try to reject these things into the upper channel or try to short them below the previous day's range. Tesla never got below 5,375. Meta got slammed, absolutely slammed there. 497 held twice. If it builds below, it can flush. Here was Meta. Right here was Meta. It took out the 497 that it held back to back days and went all the way down to 487. Nice move on Meta. Microsoft, it was a two-sided trade. 1840 to the upside. There was literally no room into supply. 413 to the downside. Not a big move yet, but Microsoft lost that 413 range. Lost that 1413 range, traded down to 410. If it starts losing 410 tomorrow, it should see 408. Arm got manslaughter. Congratulations to all you guys that caught Arm. 120 if it builds below, can flush. Arm got just taken down. I mean, that's the best way of saying it. Arm, again, look what happened. Lost its 50-day moving average, guys. Lost the 120 and traded all eight to the lows at 107. There was some 102 put buyer coming in. It looks like tomorrow there's a high probability if the market continues to see that 102, 100 level for an immediate soft landing. And the last but not least, right? Last but not least, this was the upside. We know what about $3? Not a big deal, but this is the one to the downside. 859 held three times if it builds below, can flush. Right? Here is NVIDIA. NVIDIA lost the 859 level, right? It lost the 859 level. It closed pretty much at the lows of the day around at 839. Guys, watch NVIDIA for tomorrow, okay? If this thing starts losing the 50-day moving average, I don't know how many countless examples we have to show the importance of the 50-day, but if NVIDIA starts losing the 50-day moving average, you're going to see some more selling come on in. If you are interested in PIVOTS guys, again, we click the comments below. There's a link to the webinar. Kick the tires for 30 days. See if this is for you. If it's for you, cool. If it's not for you, again, we continue to be social media friends. Guys, God bless. I got to get to my son's lacrosse game and I will see you all tomorrow. Have a good night.