 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys. Good evening, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access to Trader.com weekend update show. Once again, it is five o'clock on Friday. Again, dad life, right? A million basketball games this weekend, only for my daughter. My son kind of tore up his calf a little bit, so he's kind of sidelined for a couple of weeks, but again, still a part of dad life. So let's talk about the markets. So today ended the quarter, right? Today ended the third quarter. And the numbers are pretty ugly, right? Very, very ugly numbers. Let me just kind of run down for you for the quarter, right? For the quarter. Let's see here. Let's see here. Let's see here. Let's see here. Well, how about this? For the month, the S&P 500, right? Down 9.3%. That's a lot. The Nasdaq down about 10.5% and the New York Stock Exchange tumbled about 9% for September. I mean, these are big numbers. And we've been talking about ever since, again, we lost the 50-day moving average on the Nasdaq 100 and pretty much on everything else. We lost it on that CPI, and all we've been doing is just going lower, lowest, lower, lowest, lower, lowest. And we've been talking about the sell bias nature of this market. You start looking at earnings, and you start looking at all these different groups that are coming out with earnings. Like, for example, today, you saw a pretty good display of weakness everywhere. You have Nike, foot and apparel, you have Carnival, right? You have Carnival, cruise ships, and you have Micron, which is the semiconductor space with the whole story of semiconductor shortage. But it really does show you this is not isolated to like tech technology. This is isolated to everything else. So we've been watching these videos. I've been highlighting the most important group in my opinion, right? Not from the trading aspect of it, not even from the investment aspect, but from kind of Main Street. Now, it's the most important thing, and that's the consumer cyclical. Basically, the products that you need, right? You need that you use every single day subconsciously that supposedly is not putting a dent into your wallet. It doesn't make a difference what your level of income is. It's those names that you turn around and you say, well, I really need shampoo. I really need razors. I really need shower gel, whatever the case may be. And those are the names that are getting hit. And those are the names that are being sold very, very aggressively, right? Procter and Gamble, Colgate Palmol. I mean, these are massive moves. Coca-Cola, right? You have Kellogg, which I really like setting up into next week. Names like General Mills that had a really nice move or just another day away from getting hit. So you're seeing all these, again, it goes on and on. You got Estee Lauder, you got Kimberly Clark, right? All these names that are consumer cyclicals, they're just really, really dying out. A name that we talked about on last night's video, Pepsi, right? We talked about Pepsi. Pepsi, if Coke already broke down, guess what? Pepsi is going to break down as well, and it did that today, and it looks like lower prices coming in for its future. But more important of what is happening right now, the question is what happens down the road? Again, this is the most dangerous part of where a new trader is focused on or at least trying to be focused on. I've traded several bear markets that lasted for two, three years, right? If you guys remember, after 2000, right? After the 2000 bubble came 9-11. From 9-11 all the way up to 2003 was a really, really hard trading environment. Again, do I call it a bear market? I don't want to call it a bear market, but it was freaking damn tough, right? You go from 2007 to 2009, 2007, 2008. I don't know if there was math involved in this update, but carry the one, right? That's almost three years as well, right? From 2007, 2008, all the way 2009. That's almost three years worth of selling pressure as well. Again, heavy catalyst, global potential Armageddon. So that was validated. And here we are, right? Here we are. You know what's going on with the Fed. Again, there's no reason to kind of go through what the Fed is doing and inflation. Is it transitory? Is it stagnant, dragnet, whatever the hell you want to call it? We are where we are, right? And that's the bottom line. So always remember, the market doesn't need to do anything, right? There was some periods of time and you could, you know, you could go back on the 100-year chart and you could turn around and go, well, it doesn't make a difference, right? The market will be okay eventually. Yeah, eventually it will be. Now the question is, can you be okay? Can you stay solvent when the market becomes quote-unquote okay again, right? So there's no guarantee ever that the market has to go up when you want it to go up, right? And when you look at what the S&P did this month, right? This is the, we had the worst month, quote-unquote, March 2020. What was March 2020? Remember the pandemic broke out? Well, this month was worse than the pandemic, okay? So the numbers are staggering. They're very aggressive. And unfortunately for all traders who started, you know, within the last couple of years, again, the only thing you do know is hot stock, hot stock, breakout, breakout. And I asked somebody a question a couple of years ago. They turned to me and they're like, hey, Dan, you know what? I don't short stocks. I like buying breakouts. Cool, right? So my question to them was, well, what do you do when the market goes down? And their answer to me was, well, what do you mean? That's my point. A lot of traders started into what do you mean? Stocks only go up. What do you mean? We're in the mean generation. Stunks, right? GameStop, this one, that one, right? We've never seen. We've never seen a down market. Stop talking about this, Dan. You idiot. We don't want to talk about no down market. The market's going higher. And we love a bull market. We love a bull market. It feels good. Everybody's more attractive. Everybody's taller. My three-inch penis goes to three and a half inches. Everybody's happier. But unfortunately, again, like we've been talking about for a long, long time, gravity's real, right? Technical damage is real. There's other aspects of trading, right? That there are geopolitical, geopolitical. And now we're seeing the financial aspect of it. Taming inflation. That is not going to be a pretty picture for a very long time, but not from the point of the trading aspect from the main street aspect. And again, if little Johnny asks his mom and said, mommy, mommy, mommy, can I get that box of frosted flakes? And mommy says, no, I can't. We can't buy that. We're not asking for a Lamborghini for God's sake. We're asking for a box of, and that's where the problem is. And slowly but surely, stock prices are starting to reflect that and have been reflecting that for quite a while. Again, if you look at any consumer cyclical stock, you could possibly see that. The question is not to figure out when all this bad dream goes away. And again, it all depends on who you talk to. If you're a trader and you've been doing this for a very long time, again, I prefer a bull market. I love a bull market. Who doesn't? We don't need a bull market. And that's the most important part. Stocks are very, very aggressive to the downside. The same way you look at a chart that's breaking out is the same way you look at a chart that's breaking down. And it's a little bit different, right? It's a little bit different trading, because again, there's less market participants on the way down. There's a little bit less liquidity on the way down because of the less market participants. But the good news is stocks go down a lot faster and a lot more aggressive. And the one thing, and again, I'm going to reiterate this to newer traders, okay? There's no such thing as a breakout during a bear market, right? There might be a stock that's green on the day and it might have its 15 minutes, maybe even two hours of glory. But the end of the day, no matter how strong that stock was or is, what you think it's going to be, the laws of bearishness kicks in and that stock doesn't become strong. All you got to do is look at any stock that was strong today, right? Snow today was very, very strong, right? It was very, very strong. If you look at the 60-minute view, it was strong. It was very, very strong, not so much, right? If you look at any stock, any stock, it doesn't make a difference. Literally any stock today that was green on the day that looked strong didn't end up strong and that's the whole point of a bear market. And again, like I said on every single video, you're not going to see the market go straight down, right? There's definitely up days. There's definitely dead cat bounce days. Those days, like I've been talking about in every video, I have zero interest. Yeah, you'll get your little scallops, the stuff, the other thing, but you want the meat and potatoes on the down days and that's the most important part. Not trying to, you know, not trying to, because again, if you guys remember a couple of days ago, we had that dead cat bounce day, you guys remember how it took three hours for Amazon to go up a dollar? You guys remember that, right? It took like, you know, even today's action, you saw moves to the upside on snow and maybe a name like meta, it took like the whole army, the whole brigade, right? The whole, you know, literally everything for this stock just to move up a dollar before it crashed, you know, two, three hours late and that's the whole point. The value is always to the downside and the one thing that we've been kind of talking about all the time, the event rate, right? When the market is good, okay? And this is something kind of an important lesson especially for new traders. When the market's good, when a stock comes out with earnings, unless they use the word chapter 11, the stock is probably going to perform, right? Because there's so much you for it. Again, case in point, this past quarter, Microsoft, Google, and a whole slew of other tech names, they all guided down. They all missed the top and bottom line and guess what happened? They rallied, right? We remember this whole area here, right? They all rallied within this month, okay? When the market is bad, it doesn't make a difference what kind of good news you have. It doesn't make a difference. It's going to sell everything and ask questions later. It's just kind of the reality. The majority names, no matter what the event, no matter what the catalyst is going to sell. So case in point, right? Let's talk about Tesla. So if you've been watching the video now for the last, just over this week, we've been talking about, we've been talking about this AI event, which I don't know what time it starts. It's right now, it's Friday. It's five o'clock Eastern time. I think at some point it's coming out some sort of news. Maybe they've got some robot or something. Sounds cool, right? It absolutely sounds cool. But again, if you're watching this video for the first time and you haven't watched any prior videos the last few days, there's been a lot of institutional sell bias on the stock. Not just because people hate Tesla. People don't hate Tesla, right? There's a lot of people who don't understand the technology or hate on Elon or hate on the car. We love Tesla, right? We love it. Again, upside, downside. We love the car. We love the boring company. We have the flamethrower, right? In Halloween, I'm going to use the flamethrower on my mother-in-law. Right? So we love all that, okay? But the one thing the market goes based on what we just talked about when an event happens is the market doesn't care. So the AI event starts up at some point this afternoon. There's always, I think there's also some sort of inventory, excuse me, the deliveries this weekend. And let me say this much, right? There's a high probability and also institutional money flow. If you guys have been watching this video, they've been betting nonstop deep out of the money puts this whole week. There's not a lot of, there's not a lot of, there's not a lot of optimism, right? At least from institutional money flow that this AI is going to change something that the world is seeing. Again, I could be wrong. I could be absolutely wrong. But I will say this much, okay? Nothing is a buy into the event, right? And again, you see it, Tesla got sold off this whole day, this whole week. It's closing at the bottom of the range. And all I know is, I don't care about an event. I don't care about anything else. I don't care about the deliveries. I don't care about anything else, right? Anything. Anything in the world. The only thing I care about is this channel right here going into Monday session. So if they release their event and they release their robots and everything else in, you know, in the world, doge shit, doge coin, whatever, anything, any news, right? The point is, if they sell off that news, okay? And they start violating this bottom channel here. The only thing I know is there's 25 points of downside. That's all I know, right? So we don't know about deliveries, mililaries, anything else in between. We know technical analysis. We survive, breathe, eat, fart, everything in between about technical analysis. Not the news. It's not what the market says, right? It's how the market trades off that news. So if there is, right? If there is some sort of good news and they do gap Tesla on Monday, I am not looking for a gap and go. I am looking for a gap and crap. And if this bottom channel, right? If this bottom channel starts getting violated, yeah, you can see how much room you have downside. Here's the crazy part, right? There are so many kids in the gallery. If this stock actually goes higher, guess what? The worst case scenario, we buy stock. So scary, right? That's exactly what happens, guys. Have an opinion. No matter what type of trader you are, no matter how many years you've been trading, don't be afraid to be wrong, right? That's how every thesis is built. And we don't do something unanticipation. Again, we could be having this conversation Monday morning. Hey, can you believe Tesla went up 20 points today? Hell, was I wrong, right? We don't care about being wrong. It's not a popularity contest. It's not about clicks and likes and shares and all that nonsense. Smash the like button, bro, right? It's not about that. It's all about taking data and trading off that data technically. There's no anticipating. There is no positioning overnight ahead of an event. It's all about what happens next. And if you look at the surface, if you look at all the data that's been consumed in the stock over the last week or so, then yes, the institutions are betting against the event. I am looking at the bottom channel here and all I care about, right? I don't care if the stock is here, here, here. All I care about is if the stock continues to get below this channel here and then you have a lot of room to the downside. So it's very, very important to understand. Again, we all love Tesla, right? Beautiful car, great trading stock. We love a good bull market because it's nothing crazy than Tesla. But guess what? There's nothing crazy than Tesla to the downside as well. And that is at least where the value is going to be. So going into this week, again, you've got to start looking at a bigger picture, right? You have a potential move all the way down to the 64 level on the Qs. If you look at the weekly view and this is where you know, this is where you know you start looking at a bigger picture because you can't even see the chart anymore, right? We closed below this trend line that started a long time ago, below the trend line for the first time in a long, long time on the Qs, right? If you look at the spies, spies did, well, they basically stopped right on the trend line. And if you look at the IWM, right? They are below this monthly trend line. So that's not a good thing. So the only way, guys, always remember this, the only way stocks are ever going to go higher, they have to take out the previous channel, okay? We had that opportunity on Wednesday and the bulls failed and that's the most important part. And yesterday, right, yesterday they couldn't get above the previous days high. And today, right? And today, wait, what channel? This is IWM. I know it looked weird. Here we go. Ah, there we go. Much better, right? So two days ago, they had a chance to get above the channel and they didn't confirm. Yesterday, they took out this whole channel's low and today we took out the previous days low as well. And unfortunately, again, if you are a permeable, I wish I had some better news for you. But again, guys, again, this is the greatest opportunity to learn how to trade. There's a big difference between a trader and a person who buys stocks in the bull market. It's very, very important to understand the difference. And until you can call yourself a trader, don't you have to learn from both sides of the market? Again, it doesn't mean and it doesn't dictate that the market's going to collapse. Nobody's talking about Armageddon. The market's going to crash. All this is a normal cycle of buyers and sellers. And unfortunately, at least for the permeable, the sellers are the ones who are in control. So that's it. That's it, guys. So look for value. Pepsi I like for next week to go lower. That looks really good. Amazon is setting up for lower prices. You can see the bottom of the range here. Very, very close. Very, very close to getting hit. So keep an eye on that. Let me see. Let me give you guys a couple more ideas for next week. Let me give you guys a couple more ideas for next week. I like Kellogg, right? Again, the whole consumer cyclical thing. I like Kellogg below this channel here. I like Archer Daniels Midland, right? Weird names, but again, that's consumer cyclical. ADMs and ag stock, food, all that crap, right? All that good crap. So look how tight the channel is, right? Looks good as well. Abbey got absolutely murdered today. Right? Look at Abbey for next week. Again, look at the weekly chart on Abbey. Right? Look at that weekly chart on Abbey. Oh my goodness. Look at this. It's such a pretty girl. Would be the prettiest girl at the ball, right? Look at this. Gorgeous. That's it, guys. Have a great week, everybody. Stay safe. Continue to work. Keep the faith. It'll click, right? It'll click, but you have to have the ability to trade both sides of the market and make unbiased judgment based on technicals. Guys, God bless, and I will see you all on Monday.