 Hello and welcome to NewsClick. Today we're going to discuss the Afghan issue and how is the peace settlement holding up. We have with us Ambassador Badrakumar to discuss this particular issue. We have been following the Afghan issues for quite some time but also with you. Do you think there is what you see right now which went into US aircraft also bombing the Taliban again and do you think this is a small glitch it will paper over be given the fact that the Ghani government did not really abide by the terms of the agreement or do you think that there are more such glitches which could affect the peace agreement? Actually the most important question you're asking in the beginning. You know it's a very important question. Hidhatu the estimation was that what is impeding a settlement is the geopolitical struggle going on in the region. India, Pakistan, Pakistan Iran supporting different factions in Afghanistan, Russia, United States, United States, China, China, India and so on. But what has emerged is this that the real challenge it's an important point you know because it'll it'll I'll come to your question. The really challenging part is that it's difficult to get the Afghan factions together and only country which can do that is the United States in the sense that it is patronized these people mentored some of them brought up some of them in this last 19 years. So it wheels a certain amount of influence but you know there was a ambassador a special envoy on Afghanistan at the time of Ronald Reagan in the 80s during the jihad Peter Thompson. So once he said that you know that an Afghan told him that you know you're trying to form a consensus among Afghans it's like put putting frocks on a scale. Is it you try to put you'll find that when you bring in the fresh fellow the other fellow jumps out you know this is what will go on. This is exactly what is happening now you know this is one part of it fact factionalism it's a highly fragmented polity and also local ethnic and other divides divides that is why I'm saying highly fragmented. Secondly you know there has been a gravy train running in the last 19 years this very corrupt country and therefore interest groups have formed and take the president for example he's the single biggest obstacle today for the you mentioned about the United States aircraft airstrike against the Taliban after the signing of the Doha pact. How did it happen? Trump had to speak to the Taliban in fact to yeah and that was to convey a message to them that Americans are not in this undermining this pact and the commitment that we give we meant it we intend to stick by it and please adhere to your commitment in turn. This is the message that President himself Trump the president of the United States himself was compelled to convey to the Taliban spoke for about 40 minutes 35 minute conversation and fairly accurate account has come out in the Taliban side so there you know you can see that and along with that back to back there was also an interview which was given by Pompeo where he has also said more or less the same thing. Now what happened is as soon as this pact was signed in Doha on the 29th he said that the next step is release of the Taliban prisoners for the Taliban is very important because they rank and file there's a very high expectation you know these guys have been languishing in prison tortured and all that and now they want these guys to come out you know and they were 5,000 5,000 fighters so this is the this is the carrot that Khalil Sad was holding to get them to agree to the reduction in violence and all the kind all that kind of thing. So you see the Ghani said that I was not party to this pact and I am not bound this is my sovereign decision and what do I get in return if I release the prisoners all very legitimate arguments but he just put a spoke in the wheel. Now when that happened Taliban said now there is a reduction in violence which was agreed to in the run up to the Doha pact. You see Praveer let me just step aside there's another thing to be mentioned here is that you know in this kind of peace agreements often what you find in black and white in print is not really the more important thing the important thing is you know the discussions which have taken place and the matrix of understanding which gives the underpinning for this pact. So even though Taliban has refused to have a ceasefire till an intra-Afghan dialogue and an agreement materializes on the horizon till that time they are not amenable to declaring a ceasefire. My belief is reading it is that there is an understanding with the Americans that they will reduce the violence which is a kind of tacit ceasefire tacit ceasefire they wouldn't call it ceasefire but it is a ceasefire so that no flashpoint arises that's why the reduction in violence is a euphemism for that. So when this man put the spoke in the wheel saying that no this thing no prisoners then Taliban said in that case we can't proceed toward intra-Afghan dialogue. You see the Taliban are actually not a very sophisticated cosmopolitan type you know not the this is not the classical diplomacy that is at work here they take these things very literally and they take these things very seriously and very intensely so they had so their attitude is this that if you resale from your position then I will also resale from my position you know so it's not a diplomatic encounter there you what you find is basically of a simple straightforward positions you know very narrative what you see is what you get what you see is what you get so the Americans then that is what prompted Trump to get in so I don't think that this was really a flashpoint in which Americans were interested the Americans created or the Americans would have condoned you know but this is Ghani triggered it triggered a process knowingly that this will scuttle the the inter-Afghan process now what has happened is immediately when they found that this undermining is this sabotage is going on there because a Ghani's point is that you know he doesn't want the inter-Afghan dialogue to take place if it takes place soon or later there will be requirement to form an interim government before they go for fresh elections and so on then he will have to walk into the sunset he likes his job you know this is his problem and then I mentioned interest groups enormous amount of money comes from the Americans for all factions on the Afghan side opposed to thali but on the plus side for the Americans Ghani has no mass base in Afghanistan and the anti-Ghani forces that is paradoxically the old northern alliance resistance people they are the ones now who are enthusiastic about a transition inter-Afghan dialogue and a thaliban reconciliation it's also interesting that group had some social base in their part of Afghanistan even now even now you mentioned about their ethnic things you know you see so they have that base but Ghani really does not have a Pashtun he doesn't have so he is very much the creature of the united states absolutely a spot on you know the Pashtuns are overwhelmingly thaliban that's what it is because also back by Pakistan yes and it was there like that in the 90s also which was why at that time they had a difficulty in coming to the Amodhariya northern region when I was in Tashkent you know the this struggle was going on they came captured Kabul but they couldn't come to the northern regions Tajikistan Uzbekistan borders you know meeting with resistance the real resistance there you know and it became very bloody you know the Tajiks and Uzbek the other ethnicities Azaras Azaras Azaras are bordering Iran Azaras is you know the the highland is their their main citadel then on the northern slopes of that highlands leading to the Amodhariya plains Azara settlements they are even there in Masari Sharif this commander whom I have dealt with very closely Muhakkik Muhammad Muhakkik he actually is from that side the northern side of Afghanistan the commander of the highland area is this man by name Khalili you may have heard of him he is also very legendary commander Mujahidin commander so Azaras are also in northern areas they are living side by side with the Uzbekis tribes you know so this is why they at least have a social base the X northern alliance as you were saying they are supportive of today they're supporting of a peace process because everybody at the end of it wants peace and these are all homegrown forces so to say well Ghani is playing the spoiler because he has no social base so his only condition of survival is the war going on and you know the the northern tribes they are also understanding that the Taliban today are not the Taliban that we knew in the 90s for example Taliban are quite willing for a broad base government and so a reconciliation with the Taliban is necessary the northern tribes realize it otherwise Afghanistan cannot be stabilized the I think that's a very valid point but looking at the Ghani issue there is also this issue that if he's paid enough then he might go into the sunset but he would like to take his pound of flesh before he does see he's blackmailing the Americans because the Americans can't cut and go away you know like that you know that after because whoever whichever president orders that you know he will be politically finished in America you know thousands of people dying over a trillion dollars you know in treasure lives all you know going way so it'll be like Vietnam you know the retreat from there when the embassy is rooftop you know that kind of thing so it's inconceivable so he's blackmailing the Americans then his only source of outside support is actually India yes of course yeah but I don't think it really is significant enough because I don't think our establishment will be audacious enough to crossroads with the Americans crossroads everybody in the region except us but the other thing I want to tell you about the India question that you've raised India doesn't have a border so it really doesn't have an access to Afghanistan India can act actually if it wants India can act as a spoiler and I think one of the important elements in Trump's visit to India was actually this to see that India doesn't act as a spoiler you know he openly said twice that India is supportive of our efforts this is like you know putting a ring of engagement around Modi and after this you know how can we go act as a spoiler I'm optimistic that the situation can be controlled by the Americans the the after effects of this political earthquake that the US Taliban pact symbolizes because no external power whatever be the discontent whatever be the anxiety angst is going to be acting as a spoiler because basically nobody wants Afghanistan to take the turn of Syria because Islamic State is also there you know so Pakistan doesn't want it Pakistan is seeing victory it is so close to the finish line and it just wants the process to be completed Iran suffers from the instability in Afghanistan in terms of terrorism CIA operations Saudi finance terror groups operating from Afghanistan this is a very serious drug problem which you know is a very serious issue for an Islamic country drug problem because the route to Europe is through northern Iran so Iran also has a profound differences of opinion about this peace process and also has grave doubts about the real American intentions you see this is something we should discuss also what is the future settlement Iran has serious doubts about it China also would be having but they all there is always there is still nonetheless a convergence that stabilization of Afghanistan is in the interest of regional security and stability I remember in one of the conferences that I had attended one of the Chinese security analysts the next general he had said that we do not think Afghanistan is a zero sum game it is something which is the interest of the region as a whole and it has to be addressed finally by the region because if we don't come together in the interest of peace in Afghanistan peace in Afghanistan cannot hold Americans will be there for some time they need to pull out so if everybody gets together to help that process after the internal processes have to be showed up by all the neighbors to see Pakistan becomes again a country which can then live together and build its you know economy and other things China's number one concern is Xinjiang you know this border is Xinjiang and if the virus you know is injected from Afghanistan you know Bakhan is bordering Xinjiang injected then you know it will spread all over Xinjiang you know Islamic State operating and Islamic State is a very powerful wing of the Turkistan moment so you know so that is the number one wrong problem yeah it's a number one concern secondly they have fairly good relationship with the Taliban of course Pakistan is an iron brother and Pakistan will use its influence with the Taliban if China has a problem so they are quite comfortable with the idea that a transition may bring Taliban to power they are not actually whatever they may say openly that they want a you know secular and all that they may say informally but they can learn to live with it let me put it like that that's the expression they can learn to live with it then the plus point they have is that as we move from the advent of peace to the future there is the Afghan reconstruction they can put big money on the table and nobody else nobody else can Europeans and Americans combined together cannot match the Chinese and Chinese are next door so it's much easier to they can leverage the Belt and Road projects which dovetail easily with Afghanistan's development and this becomes a Chinese area you know so they want stabilization because they know that nobody will be able to compete with them in terms of influence in Afghanistan so long term strategically a peaceful Afghanistan is also in the interest of China both for economic and political I think so I think so and I have always argued here for years and years I have been arguing that the natural ally for India is actually China is not the United States Indian policy we've been band-baggering with the Americans you know look where it has come to Americans have struck a deal with the Taliban and Pakistan because America's sectarian interests are of a different kind you know they are they they want an open-ended presence with a reduced footprint with much less expenditure financial burden and no loss of life but a strong presence in an area which is a strategic plateau overlooking four nuclear powers and five if you include Iran you know so it's a highly strategic area from where they can influence Central Asia, Xinjiang, Northern Caucasus they can destabilize Iran and Trump has said that even if we withdraw we will have a still more powerful intelligent station there but let us face it you know you know out of the out of the 12 bases they are retaining seven and what is the meaning of it it's listening post listening post and they have spent hundreds of millions of dollars in renovating it because you know like a Russian newspaper had written two three days ago that we know very well that you know that they can within a matter of two weeks if they want they can beef up the presence to 100,000 troops so you see they are keeping the bases everything there what Rumsfeld used to call the lily pads you know so they can come in at short notice begin operations that kind of thing so the Americans had their projects this is always a geopolitical project for them Afghan a thing and they were talking about fighting terrorism but this is a geopolitical project India had no reason to have hissed its wagons to them you know we should have talked like-minded countries which genuinely have concern about terrorist groups extremist groups Iran China Russia Russia countries like this and we should have formed a regional opinion now you see this peace processes from Indian point of view the peace process is main handicap is this you know that this is a very restricted condominium United States and Pakistan and to the extent of United States wanting to influence the Pakistan they are cherry picking they will go to China and involve China and China has played a very big role behind the scene in coaxing these people to a moderate line you know so overall terms India really had nothing to gain by hitching its wagon to the American policy where did we go wrong we went wrong because having dealt with this for the last you know one of your beats from a very early time since 1977 you know the because because why it is so deeply flawed it is because we didn't evolve a policy in terms of the Afghan problem in terms of the Afghan problem our priority should have been the stabilization of Afghanistan because you know our history shows that you know instability always came to the subcontinent of the Gangetic plane through the Hindu Kush you know so simply as a lesson of history we should have done it but here you know the problem is especially the present setup here our rolling elites today their obsession with Pakistan so they are viewing Afghanistan through the prism of Pakistan to create a second front against Pakistan so tying up with the intelligence agencies in Kabul and these days you know with very little money you can create pockets of influence and creating headaches for Pakistan so now when the settlement comes what will happen is that Pakistan will ensure that the first priority will be exorcising the Indian influence in Kabul and push them back close all the consulates on the Pakistani border as they have been saying that there is no reason for the Indians to have these many consulates in a country like Afghanistan Ambassador Bhadrakumar will let's conclude our discussion that what we should have been focusing on was peace and love and not on war and instead of a zero sum game we should have had a larger geostrategic vision of Afghanistan and the South Asian shall we say region thank you very much for being with us we'll continue to share our views and your views with our audience over the next unfolding of the peace process or even if it is covered by the Afghan different factions thank you very much thank you for watching use click do keep watching our international coverage and our news