 Yeah, talking about the future, but even soothayers cannot successfully predict the future and Scientist have also frequently been known to make inaccurate Predictions nevertheless it is helpful To offer some ideas about possible future development so as to prevent ourselves Being taken completely by surprise by what occurs in the future Moreover, there is no need to rely on an untrustworthy Speculation because solid conclusions about the future of evaluation can be drawn from the development of recent decades the current state of evaluation and from the expected needs of commissioners of evaluation and This is based on the assumption that Evaluations are predominantly Scientific services that depend to a large extent on the requirement of the clients Of course, this is not a one-way street Scientists and evaluators have an influence and on what is asked for by by politics Administrations and the society in general new models such as evidence-based policy New management models such as new public management Impact or outcome management impact oriented control and so on are developed by scientists and are introduced in the political debate and promoted So my presentation is Structured in such a way that it first shows some important development trends That form the context of the further development of evaluation the second part Of the presentation examines the question of how this development could continue in the future and These considerations are based on the thesis that the development of evaluation depends above all on the quantitative and qualitative demand of a society and Finally the challenges and dangers that evaluation is confronted with Should be pointed out before as you may expect from an evaluator He gives a few recommendations Okay the fact that Recent decades have been absolutely Characterized by a worldwide evaluation boom can be demonstrated by a number of indicators in many countries Evaluation is an established instrument for political action and administrative management in international organizations national governments And their administrations but also non-governmental organizations In an increasing number of countries regulatory impact assessments are required This is or these are approaches that are intended to Systematically assess the positive and negative effects of planned or existing regulations and thanks to the development of information and communication a technology and the worldwide web the Distribution of evaluation results has increased rapidly also many organizations still do not publish their evaluation Results online. There are many reports on the wide variety of topics. However Little is known about the extent to which this knowledge is used for planning new programs Growing demand has led to an extensive supply market for evaluation This is dominated worldwide by consulting companies universities and Research institutions play an important role in this market in the US for example, but less so in Germany or Switzerland the boom in Demand for evaluation expertise is counted by a Professionalization of evaluation so one indicator of this is the sharp increase in the number of national and international Evaluation societies in recent years whereas in 1984 there were about 10 Evaluation societies worldwide today. There are 162 organizations and the stronger crows can be observed in Europe and Africa The increasing degree of professionalization is also reflected in the increasing number of specialist journals for evaluation according to an internet research by us. There are 13 such journals worldwide four of them in Europe and The establishment of evaluation standards can be seen as a further indicator for the professionalization of Evaluation starting from the first standards of the joint committee on standards for educational Evaluation in 1975 there are now 37 guidelines according to the IOCE database and the increasing number of training courses Offered worldwide is contributing to the professionalization of evaluation There's a wide range of training and further education courses in both the US and in Europe according to Verena Friedrich in Europe 15 university training courses were offered in 2012 and an internet search from us came to the result that there are 24 master's degree programs for evaluation worldwide Part of this professionalization process is the development of evaluation capacities Which has been supported by a number of initiatives over the past 15 years particularly in developing emerging and transition countries In 2001 The World Bank was one of the first to launch its International Program for Development Evaluation Training IpDead I Quote that aims to provide managers and practitioners with the generic tools required to Evaluate development policies programs and projects at local national regional and Global levels and as you know so far the program has been completed by over 3500 participants In so in 2001 the international organization For cooperation in evaluation was founded to build a worldwide network of regional and Of regional and national Evaluation organizations and in 2002 the International Development Evaluation Association was established to strengthen the evaluation structures in developing and transition countries in January 2010 another important step was taken to strengthen the capacities of countries and governments in the areas of monitoring and Evaluation and performance management various donor organizations jointly launched a clear initiative to support development anchored in evidence learning and mutual accountability and Another important player the eval partners initiative was launched in 2012 with the aim of supporting the establishment of voluntary organizations for professional evaluation Based on the discussion of the current situation. It is clear that evaluation is experiencing a worldwide boom and that both governments and civil society Organizations are increasingly using this key concept to improve the effectiveness impact sustainability and Efficiency of their activities on the other hand there is an increasing professionalization of evaluation Also observable worldwide which is supported in developing and transition countries by evaluation capacity building measures The increasing worldwide Disimination of evaluation can also be observed in the studies of a rubricist and Zandal Who have examined the evaluation culture of 18 countries in 2002 and 2012 unfortunately Almost all countries of the south are missing in this analysis and this is the reason why Send our center for evaluation the civil has started a war a worldwide research project Covering all continents. So the goal of this project called evaluation club is to carry out a country comparing study of the institutionalization of Evaluation each country case study which follows a given Theoretical analysis scheme is written by national evaluation experts The results of the European volume will be presented at the EES conference in October The America's volume is scheduled for next year and Africa and Asia will follow them Let's go back from the future to the present for rubricist and Zandal have used nine criteria for their study to describe the degree of institutionalization of Evaluation in each country and From the presented figure here. It can be seen that there are at least five effects One Effect I would say is the Elevator effect if you look at the mean and if you look here at the points Then you can see that almost all countries have a higher score This means that the evaluation culture has improved in almost all of them And there has been a catching up development that means countries with a particularly low rating have improved significantly for example, Spain From five to eleven points or Italy from seven to eleven points and Another development you can see in that figure is that they are new front runners look here Finland and Switzerland Finland has made a phenomenal rise from the 12th place 2002 to the first 2013 and our friends from Switzerland from 14th place to the second place Countries like Germany are stagnating. That's very interesting if you look at the points Yeah in 2002 certain points were enough to reach seventh place by 2012. It's only number 12 Countries such as Canada United States or United Kingdom They lost a little bit, but they are still on the top so that means that they still have a high Evaluation culture according to the nine indicators used here so these figures and sketchy explanations Presented make it clear that the institutionalization of evaluation has enormously developed in many countries and has increasingly found its way into politics administration and society In the following I would now like to turn to the question of the further development of evaluation To be able to say something about the future of evaluation I assume as I already mentioned that it this depends to a large extent on the demand of politics and society in order to specify these requirements more precisely I start from The theoretical model of a three-fold purpose of evaluation after that I will systematically examine how these three functions of evaluation have developed in the last decades and How they will continue to well to develop in my opinion evaluation can fulfill three functions in society Evaluation can be used as a management instrument For providing reliable data and assessments for management decisions Particularly during the introduction of new management models within the framework of new public management And the setting up or far-reaching quality management models Evaluation becomes an integral part of the organizational structure and culture as well As of the day-to-day processes within organizations in this way Evaluation contributes to creating more effective efficient and sustainable policy thereby increasing the level of policy effectiveness secondly Secondly evaluation can also be part of the implementation of policy strategies When public bodies make use of evaluation as a way of showing that they are achieving their goals According to different dimensions and criteria the credibility and legitimacy of policies is increased In addition knowledge of the effects triggered by policy strategies allows the shaping of policies on a rational basis and certainly Evaluation can also be used for a let's say a flex a flex Reflexive a reflexive approach as an instrument for providing an empirical basis for societal self reflection evaluation does not Simply reinforce the belief in progress as this would make it merely a Technocratic instrument instead it Simultaneously puts progress itself under the spotlight by looking at the Collateral results the intended and the non-intended effects in this sense Evaluation can be employed in the service of public enlightenment Let us now take a look at the development of evaluation using these three functions If you first look at the management function, we can see that evaluation Used as a management instrument is the most common one Governments and their administrations, but also non-governmental organizations On the constant pressure to improve the quality of their work and for this reason A wave of modernization has been observed in recent decades, which is primarily oriented Towards concept of the private sector and can be characterized by various features. So We can observe that new management Models put the customer in the focus and the customers Satisfaction with the services provided the increasing poor importance of total quality Management concepts in the private sector is also Attracting attention in the public sector and principle as Stronger orientation of the management towards facts can be observed in order to have a rational basis for decision-making even if under President Trump it may appear that the orientation on facts or The orientation on fakes has increased But in the end, this is also about evidence-based policy only that fakes are given out as facts We can also observe that a turn away from input orientation draws attention to the quality of the services provided Anti-impacts achieved and also the concept of the learning organization as a permanent Process promotes the use of evaluation as a modern management tool and All these developments have in common that Organizations need information in order to rationalize and optimize the decision-making Processes and make them comprehensive and verifiable So what does that mean for the future of evaluation as a management instrument? The conclusion can be drawn that increasing efforts in the governmental and non-governmental sector to focus management decisions on the achieved outputs and outcomes to adapt quality elements from the private sector in order to place management decisions on a rational Data-based foundation and also the attempts to learn from mistakes Have led to a situation where evaluation has become a key instrument That is Why it is hardly to be expected that these processes of change will not continue On the contrary it can currently be observed that they are being Implemented in more and more countries in more and more policy areas as well as in the area of non-governmental Organizations, so there is strong evidence that the importance and relevance of evaluation as a management instrument Will continue to increase In addition to the management function the Legitimacy or accountability function of evaluation has become Increasingly important in recent years in literature It is repeatedly pointed out that state and non-governmental organizations want to prove to the public that they perform effective and efficient work Methodological complex evaluations are being used more and more frequently for this purpose This is the reason why outcome and impact evaluations as well as performance measurement in general are on the increase at a global level This can be observed in the increasing attention to performance targets benchmarks at milestones for example in the Millennium Development Goals and Treaties Performance monitoring and performance evaluation have become a regular part of legislation government management and international monitoring agreements The reason for this are above all found in efforts to make public policy and services transparent What about the future of evaluation as an accountability instrument for acquiring? Legitimacy Some authors such as Carmen talk about an era of accountability Cohen had notes Program evaluation has thus become a key mechanism of Accountability movement and evaluators the key agents for public accountability There's nothing so there's nothing to suggest that this trend could change in the near future Therefore there is no doubt about it that the effort to Legitimize once work because of positive evaluation results will continue to be of great importance and that high methodological requirements must be meet must be met for this closely connected To a with the legitimacy or accountability function of evaluation is the enlightenment function If findings about the effects of strategies programs or measures are made transparent Then they naturally Contribute to enlightenment in a society. This means that evaluations for accountability purposes can contribute to enlightenment But do not necessarily do so on the contrary Some skepticism is appropriate here since evaluation will tend to take place Where money flows rather than where is a societal need for evaluation? This means that there is no guarantee There's no guarantee. However that important areas of life in society which need evaluation are actually evaluated To ensure this it requires for example institutions that can independently decide what they want to evaluate free from political pressure equipped with a political mandate and Appropriate resources audit courts for example that have such a mandate and perform evaluations would be such institutions of course research funds also Contribute to the fact that independent scientists and institutions Implement evaluations and publish their results and provide information to the society But in many countries there are hardly any such funds so that scientific research up to now Could fulfill this enlightenment function only in a very limited way The participation of civil society is also important for an enlightening evaluation We should at least articulate in which policy fields or a sectors of society Governmental and non-governmental measurements projects and programs are to be evaluated in contradiction To the two other functions. It is difficult to predict how the evaluation activities will develop in the context of the enlightenment function theoretically they should have a great future in societies that are democratic and oriented towards sustainability But when you consider that firstly the public in most countries of the world is Relatively uninterested in the topic and the role of evaluation society and secondly government and None and government and public administration show little tendency to create institutions or make Financial resources available for this purpose for this purpose I am somewhat pessimistic in my assessment of the future development of evaluation in the context of the enlightenment function My hopes here are with the countries of the South to promote this issue Especially developed developments that can be observed in Latin America are interesting so I noticed in the discussions and in the work together with a lot of countries in Latin America that a number of countries are Interested to to integrate the the citizens in the evaluations to encourage them that Organizations and that organizations ask for active participation in government evaluations But I don't see any similar Tendencies here in Europe Okay, let me briefly summarize the results of this small analysis starting point where the current and assumed future evaluation demand and requirements which were categorized according to three Evaluation functions here it became clear that the management function of evaluation plays an Outstanding role which will tend to intensify in the future The Legitimacy or accountability function of evaluation is also very strong and will become even more important The future development of the enlightenment function is the most uncertain to predict however, the growing importance is Not a self-runner the positive prognosis here could be undermined by contrary developments firstly the expansion of Evaluation is in more and more policy fields and areas of activities Also carries with the dangers that can compromise the positive functions of evaluation This is the case when evaluation is more and more solidified into routine already now the Inflationary use of evaluations give reason for defense and reactance for example in the field of school or university evaluations in addition The order boom may lead to the fact that the training of evaluators Cannot keep up with the demands and requirements of the customers if evaluations are no longer sufficiently carried out in a professional manner and Appropriates as far as the quality is concerned because they are not enough qualified evaluators it can happen that the results of evaluations do not meet the expectations and needs of the clients and this necessarily Leads to frustration on both sides the sponsors could turn away from the instrument of Evaluation after such a negative experience and instead seek other methods for the generation of evidence for political control Or in the worst case they could dismiss the idea of rational policymaking in general Evaluation is not the only instrument that is used for gaining political evidence There is also a variety of other instruments for example accreditation auditing organizational development policy analysis performance management action research supervision consultancy if The task of evaluation is not clearly distinguished from other instruments It is running the risk of losing its profile its specific characteristics then Evaluation disappears into the arbitrariness of a variety of instruments and then evaluation is everything a nutty Evaluation is increasingly threatened by the fact that it disappears in the sea of Consulting in some countries science is not sufficiently concerned with the topic of evaluation thereby Theories and methods of the discipline might try up and science get lost commissioners Reasonable enough one to be informed quickly accurately and decision-related This way the aspect of the research The theory and the method to the method development of evaluation fall behind and this can lead to Evaluation losing its scientific foundation and that no further development in theory and methodology is taking place so the future of Evaluation may look rosy But it must recognize the science of the times or it can quickly lose its meaning again It's it is important that Evaluation responds to social trends and the new requirements of the clients That evaluation is not frozen in routine so that the usefulness of evaluation is preserved that evaluation sharpens its profile and Elaborates its strengths compared with other instruments and that evaluation does not lose it Scientificness and just turns into a technique And that there are sufficient Education and training opportunities created so that the quality of evaluation does not suffer And that is why such further education programs like it that are of vital importance for the professionalization of evaluation if that also contributes to increase the demand for evaluation in government and society and To increase the quality of evaluation by professionally qualifying decision makers evaluation managers and evaluators If one finally looks again at the challenges Evaluation is facing in the 21st century Then I think it is important that evaluation does not Remind self-pleased in the current Social esteem, but that evaluation takes these challenges Seriously and reacts to them then we can also say in the future These are great days for evaluators. Thank you for listening