 Right. Well, there's less that news. My name is Rob. And today the story really is is There is a recession coming. I think we can all feel we can all see it But the real question is should we embrace it and I gotta tell you I think this is a grand opportunity So we're just gonna go over just why I think this is and just take a look at some past data Just to see how well we could actually make out. So let's just jump right in shall we so the first thing I want to talk about is take a look at recession factors to actually look at Banks housing and fed quantitative tightening. So if we take a look real quick There's been some rumblings about some banks Collapsing perhaps but these are all rumors. We don't really know but I got to tell you Some things do concern me when I see stuff like this where the CEO comes out and says hey, hey, hey Don't worry. Everything's fine credit. Swiss has strong capital base and liquidity And this is from the CEO old Rick corner and he says look I know it's not easy to remain focused and then the many stories you've read in the media in particularly given the many Factually inaccurate statements being made, but you have to trust us That's our day-to-day stock price performance is a lot different than our strong capital base and liquidity position of the bank and I gotta tell you when I see these things just makes me nervous I'm like Usually when people come out and say no, no, it's okay. There's no problems. We're not insolvent. There's no issues That's when things are really going downhill and I think we can see that in our in our crypto market itself Such as the banks and you can see numerous stories going on about these also the housing market There's two two things that really will lead us in and take us out of a recession Usually it's the housing market and not in the automotive industry and this was an article just came out two days ago housing market crash could be worse than 2008 and Talks about a different host of new data that comes out one of those is that of course the interest rates are over 6% Thank you drone power This is has to it has to happen. I'm not blaming drone power from the Fed. I'm just saying this is what it is Drive July home sales Failed nearly 20% and looks like rent prices are up 30% so you got homes crashing Rent pricing going up because people got to live somewhere and in July the US recorded a 10 Month supply of new houses. That's the highest level since 2009 So more homes are being built Then there are people to actually buy them and then take takes a look at the price to income ratios on homes a new median income prices four and 38,000 for a house average hourly earnings is 2732 was pretty good It puts the PI ratio at 16,000 35 and in context This is the highest figure since the great recession when it was 14,000 923 So let that sink in and then also don't forget. I mean the Fed's gonna raise prices because they did so much I mean they kind of let us into what this is, but then you've got the quantitative easing Which of course I'm just printing money now. They're like we want that money back Quantity of tightening essentially their balance sheet is too fat and this is from Wall Street silver Fed has in the last six months managed to reduce its balance sheet from 8.96 trillion to 8.8 trillion. Wow, that's 2% 2% this is all the different Prices that they've bought up all these different ETFs that they've bought up and they put on their balance sheet and Fed now plans to accelerate quantity of tightening Tightening just the markets are getting extremely illiquid. So look, we know these things are happening We know it's coming and we need to Really embrace it because we have to accept the things that we can't change and just kind of go into this and go Okay, what do I do so? This really comes down to this Recession I think is gonna be good and just hear me out and the obstacle really is the way So this is from Alf. He's got his own macro Compass newsletter pretty good data because a hundred years of history shows that recessions were always able to bring inflation down To less than 2% coincidentally. That's what the Fed is going for 2% or lower If you hit demand bad enough, you'll get there. How long does it take to slow CPI from 6 to 10 percent which? For reference right now. We're around 8.3 as far as CPI numbers to 2% Using 1948 69 90 in 2008 as examples. It takes anywhere between five and 30 months It's about a bit amount of time and we can take a look here Guys done all our all the hard heavy lifting for us. So give him a follow links in the description Does inflation come now with a recession? Yeah, it does because everything gets hit hard So whatever you whatever people determine is a recession to consecutive quarters of GDP Reduction or if there's a unemployment rate as it starts to fall, even though we haven't done so much right now You can see that in 1923 The number of months for CPI to slow to 2% took six months, but the peak CPI it was only 3.6 In 1926 the CPI number was 4.7 or met and remember We were at 9.1 not too long ago an hour 8.3 took seven months to come down 1937 the peak CPI ahead of recession was 5.1 took nine months 1948 took 10 months 1957 you're looking at 16 or excuse me 11 months then 16 months at 3.7 then this this really awful period of 1969 1981 you had all the Economic factors that were just just pounding us. This is when Volcker came in around 1978 1979 and I pushed things out So we didn't hit a depression, but in 1969 You had a peak CPI of 6.2 again a lot of a lot of factors that were pretty negative Took 30 months to slow down in 2% 1974 was 12.3 12.3 CPI took 24 months 1981 14.8 took 41 months I know people are complaining about drum Powell and raising rates and how awful it is I'm telling you if he doesn't do these things and sticks to the sticks to what we're supposed to do to get this Inflation back down. We're gonna see stuff like this. So I'm all for it the 1990 and so on and so forth. So again To put this in a perspective CPI numbers in June 21 2021 we were at 5.4 and then just kind of progressively went up 75 7 9 8 5 8 3 8 6 9 1 8 5 now we're down to 8 3 who knows what it'll be and as a reminder Those numbers come out on October 3rd 13th along with earnings report as far as the season calendar That's on October 15th for all the big stock marketplace. We'll see where it's coming from. I don't expect that to be very strong The thing you have to remember is this processions don't last forever Bull runs don't last forever bear runs don't last forever, but it propels us the recession really is the way to get to Economic growth you have to cool down and just like we talked about 1969 that you know those those those bad times 771 then Volcker stepped in around 78 79 Then of course you had all this time period There's a little bit of economic boom, but after that when it was really bad from 1982 to 1990 almost you had a nice Economic recovery and boom then of course you had a little bit of crash and all this time here then in 2000 the dot-com crash Didn't last too long for the recession We're like in less than a month or less than a year Economic boom then of course we had Lehman brothers and world Economy collapse especially in the housing market and that lasted about two years, but then look at this we had 13 years From 2009 Although that's a I don't know. This is kind of like a not a fake recession, but mostly because of a black swan event Corona and whatnot, but 13 years then before this you had like a what is it eight years before this yet ten years So when people talk about recession how bad it is. I don't think it's that awful I honestly do think that and it's a great quote from Marcus Aurelius where the impediment to action advances action what stands in the way becomes the way and really Recession in my personal opinion is the way to get to These big economic booms, but we have to go to that hard pieces and this is what I'm talking about right here There was a video we did yesterday and we talked about Joe Biden and every time I talk about Politics it's not that I'm talking about that the politics the person in office I'm talking about the laws that are being passed and he's talking about raising the capital gain stacks to a combined rate of 48.4 percent and it's it's above a million. Yeah, but for remember right now in the States any capital gain stacks is Right now sitting around for long term around 21 22 percent Depending and then of course what states you're in and then short term is based on your your average or your yearly income It's then above one million They're looking to just say no as a matter of as long or short term It's forty point four percent, but the big quite the big thing I got was Rob. Who makes a million dollars? I don't make a million dollars up to this point. So I'm okay. I'm okay with paying those taxes, which that's fine It is it's true, but I just want to show you something why I talk about this obstacle is the way There's a great website. It's called DC a CC.com. I linked that in the description as well You can find it and you can put in any Crypto that you want here for the coin. There's another one called DC a BTC comm But this one you can use anyone you can use a therium or USD my opium Bnb XRP all the way. I think down to like number 100 Mina protocol and trust wall. I know they had one good for them. So I'm gonna show you something real quick So Bitcoin Because these things actually do add up. It's just time in the market If you want from January 1st 2020 to That's not right What's the day? We'll just say the 30th even though I think it's the second today. Isn't the second today? Now there we go. Okay, we'll calculate this If you put in a hundred dollars weekly, which is a good amount of money And you're looking at for a good amount of time if you're to sell the top Which is very tough to do you would put in your investment Blow this up your investment itself was ninety eight hundred dollars, but your balance will be 42,000 Which is not bad, but it's pretty far off from being a millionaire, right? Well, watch this Let's just change this because Bitcoin is probably the safest bet in the most volatile market that we possibly have And again, this is not investment advice. Just the things that I have done or I'm doing right now So if I want to let's just take a theory I'm curious if I put a theory about a hundred dollars weekly. I started in 20 and this is just 2020 I'm not gonna go back to 2015 when it was like nothing. I'm saying if we calculate that how much would it be? So if we were to sold the top Hundred you would have invested 10,000 to get 100,000 which is pretty good because if you're looking at the S&P 500 I mean basically your returns around 8.2 8.3 percent. I think your every year growth Correct me the comment section. So I mean 8.3 and now we're gonna see a reduction probably 6% in all honesty If you get 6% I want you to put in T bills. I mean on it I mean T bills around 3.93 you're almost 4% for the 2 and the 10. I'm just saying So 100,000 so that's still on a million dollars Rob. That's true. It's not but now if we get maybe a little bit more riskier And I say you know what? Let me just take a little Cardano Let's let's just do 2020 again. We'll calculate this Over time and if we sold the top, which is very tough. I might add there we go 235,000 but you invested $8,800. It's not bad. Now. Let's do something else. Let's do a little bit riskier Which would be? Let's take James's favorite Let's take Solana again back to 2020. Let's calculate this one and again We look over here In that time if you had invested 8,300 bucks you had 859,000 307 now again This is a lot of different factors. So I'm gonna top which is almost impossible I know some people say they do it all the time, but I think they're liars But if you hit 80% of that, I mean now you're getting to that that range that we just talked about, you know a millionaire and These are the things that I look at now If we're talking about all these things and we're saying well, you know as far as Capital gains and things like that. I know it's it's it's it's a tough pill to swallow the thing I'm trying to get at is this It's very tough To make a ton of money in a bull market because if you go up 10 20% I mean that's great That's nice, but do you see where all the money is made? It's when there's like nothing going on It's super boring. Nobody wants to invest and they just get out. I think that's the wrong time I think the time for me personally is that I want to get in When everything's going down and everybody's scared and they're panicking and I'm not saying to put a hundred dollars weekly I'm just saying if you would if you get to put 10 bucks weekly or 20 bucks weekly even a lot a Lot farther ahead over time than putting into a savings account and watching it inflate inflate away So for me I look at these times and I'm like, you know what I welcome these times I'm hoping for these times this really me my last point which is I think the four-year cycle. I'm hoping it still Goes in a play, but it might not Again the first cycle doesn't hold 2015. We had a Bitcoin having an all-time high a different reset 2016 having all-time high dip reset. We did it again 2020 2021 having all-time high now We're in this dip and a reset and yes I know this is the exact same chart over here from 2018 But guess what I don't have the data for 2022 and the whole year and yeah I also don't have the data for 2023 yet and I cert as heck don't have the data for the next five or four years and I'm hoping it plays out again. Now. Could this be wrong? Could we actually have an all-time high in 2024? Maybe 20 27 Probably or maybe who knows I don't have a crystal ball But I just say that's again time in the market is a little more important than timing the market But at some point you want to stick to the rules Which are very simple below me and that is it's all gone meaning don't invest more and you can afford to lose Everything's a scam and so I'll prove otherwise are 100 scams Don't leave anything on exchanges Don't use leverage and take profits along the way when you worked hard enough in the stress take a little profit So that will lead me to my last last point which is this it's just a little public service announcement This was an article from Bloomberg says coinbase says it's fixing an issue that prevents the company from interacting with US bank accounts I have had zero problems with coinbase. I just use it today. No problems with the banks. I don't know if this is a photo article I don't I could care less. I couldn't care less But it just reminds me to remind you of the third rule. Don't leave anything on exchanges I think we've all learned that rule from the voyage or Celsius debacle moving forward. That's all I want to say And that's it. So just things to think about. I know right now. It seems awful You know, we see we hear these these awful stories about the recessions coming and and the banks are failing and so on so forth I tell you again. These are huge opportunities. It's not a very popular opinion that I have I mean people want to hear the everything's gonna blow up tomorrow But it's just not going to happen in my personal opinion and that's it So look that takes care of today's news if you like today's video thumbs up subscribe all that good stuff Now if you want to stick around or if you want to go watch football go watch football We want to stick around I'll answer all your questions the best of my bullies we do a Q&A But that is it for the news. So get out of here. I appreciate it now Let's jump into a little Q&A. Let me go for this ban