 Good morning. Welcome to the future show My name is Gerd Leonhard. I'm a futurist and don't worry the future will not be as dark as the intro I was just to get you to wake up So really great pleasure to be here. We have a 15-minute program where we do the future show trying to depict the key trends for the future and Starting with a bit of a future shock and talking about what it could be and afterwards We have a great panel discussion right here in the middle. So Going into the next session pretty quickly. My new book is technology versus humanity Unfortunately the box didn't arrive with the books So if I want to sign your books would have to sign your arm or whatever Instead, but it's on Amazon and you take a look when you when you have a second. So the thing about the future is That it's actually not about prediction and sometimes I like to say the future is like a box of chocolates Before you know it. There's only one left And this is really important for the discussion today because the future something that moves really quickly And there's a guy that I really admire over the years Arthur C. Clark Who was one of the original futurist along with Alvin Toffler and others and he talked about how we actually look at the future? Let's check him out for a second because this will set the stage for what we're going to do later Trying to predict the future is a discouraging hazardous occupation Because the profit invariably falls between two stools If his predictions sound at all reasonable you can be quite sure that in 20 or most 50 years The progress of science and technology has made him seem ridiculously conservative on the other hand if by some miracle a Profit could describe the future exactly as it was going to take place His predictions would sound so absurd so far-fetched that everybody would laugh him to score Interesting this was 1964 and and how true that is today I'm going to ask you actually for the next two hours to be unreasonable right to be absurd I mean think about this for a second how many things have changed in the last five years that we thought of being Literally impossible and how fast technology has has actually made the absurd become reality It's really important that we think about where this is going where they've taken us and this is my job I had this is the job that all of us must do which is to listen to the future And spend 5% of your time listen to what's going to be coming beyond the obvious and think it about a way forward That does not include what is already here Sometimes I like to say we have to assume less and discover more You know I used to be in the music business and the music business Long time ago, you know we sold records and all of a sudden the internet came up You remember Napster in those days, right and now the entire music business is in the cloud And the assumption of the music business was that you sell music by the copy, right? You sell units Well too bad because today, you know Spotify or so as you know is like 10 euros for 18 million songs, right? We're no longer selling music by the unit and the same is happening in the car business in the financial industry If we question our assumptions We can be safe to create our future. This is a key point, especially I think here in Switzerland where we're trying to avoid all risk And sometimes I say avoiding all risk is the biggest risk That's something we should contemplate on so just assume less discover more and see where that is going to take us now The transition that is ahead is Something that we're all aware of you know if we're looking already at our reality our mobile devices are already our external brains We keep information and there we store our contacts. We forget phone numbers of loved ones We look up our stock market information. We trade on the mobile phone We're essentially outsourcing part of our brain to a device and in this sort of evolution We're going, you know, we're here where we can recognize ourselves, you know falling into the Fountain or into the lake and in Lucera and lots of people fall into the lake every day because they're doing this right You may remember how that works, right? And then wearable computing where all of a sudden we can connect directly to the internet and then being able to actually Supplement ourselves and augment ourselves by becoming cyborgs and ultimately the destination of humanity This is a question. I have for you if you're European you have a different answer, right? Are we going to go connect directly to the internet? With a brain computer into sounds like science fiction, right? It's not Entirely possible roughly in 10 years to do that. What's called the second neocortex? Connecting directly to the internet imagine if that happens, you know how quickly you can transact with money Because there wouldn't be any interface any typing right so but the question is how far should we take this? Should we build tool makers, you know, these are tools on the left side on the right side do would become a tool And that's why I like to say humanity will change more in the next 20 years Than the previous 300 years That's hard to imagine right because the previous 300 years had the industrial evolution and wars, right? But your kids are very likely going to live in the world where they won't even know ever how to drive a car without a computer Driving it to drive it themselves. They will not know CDs. They will not know books It's I mean the kids of your kids right take a bit more time We're going to be living in a world will be maybe looking at the end of dying The possibility of living will be 150. I mean again science fiction dying probably yes, but All of our the kids of our kids will live to be a hundred in average, right? It's already kind of certain So in this world We had to think about what the future actually holds and here's what I'm telling you right in the beginning The future is better than you think When we hear look about the future we think about all the movies that we've watched in the past and and the facts are ever The reality is already much better than we thought global life expectancy is increasing to a tremendous level We're moving into a world where all of these things are becoming possible in a way that wasn't possible before Mortality is decreasing of infants poverty is decreasing All of these things are positive things that have already happened and when you talk about this everybody say like oh I didn't know but we're actually getting better right it seems are getting worse So world literacy rate is up These are all things that are happening because of technology because of possibilities that Computing costs are declining rapidly In a way that we had anticipated of course Moore's law So transaction costs bandwidth cost declining Business models change because of this because people are getting connected right these two curves costs and benefits increasing That's obviously a scenario. That's we're really going to make a lot of things possible increases GDP The possibility of genome sequencing mind boggling now It's going to be 800 bucks in 10 years It will be cheaper to do the genome sequencing then to flush the toilet And mind boggling changes that will come from this and the also the solar energy Actually happening now. I mean it's talked about this forever and best of all World population growth is slowing Well, it's still going to be 10 billion people which is a lot, right? But it's not growing as fast as we thought it would sure so the future is actually Brighter than we think and the key question really is about technology It's no longer going to be if technology can do something but why? And this is going to be your question when you're looking at your institutions. They basically anything you want to do Will be possible in the next 10 years All the stuff that we've seen already has already moved in this direction But now the key question is really about something like this the future is not just something that happens tomorrow It is something that already happened today and we haven't noticed Now I'd like to know what you think about the future So please take out your mobiles and this is a session where you actually get to do it, you know without looking rude Take out your mobile devices your weapons. Yeah, it's fine. You can take them out. You don't have to hide them Yes, so this is the audience participation part. It's a very simple website called menti.com It's on the screen The total simple poll you go to menti.com. Don't sign up. Don't download. Don't share your location Okay, just let us know what you think about the future pick from the options. You can only pick one option Okay, and hit the submit button Now I know there's about a hundred fifty people in this room if I don't see as many responses then you're Significantly challenged by technology that does not vote well for your future So keep voting. I want to know how you feel about the future Whether you are challenged by technology or ecstatic or optimistic or you feel dystopian about this You can only vote once We'll have three of those sessions today, so keep your weapons ready Okay, and for the next session you have to refresh to actually do the next poll Keep voting. That's very interesting. I Guess this is why you're at cybos because you feel optimistic about the future or maybe vice versa Maybe cybos will make you feel optimistic Very interesting result. You can keep voting. I think pin code is four one seven one oh three We'll leave this running in the background Great to see that you feel good about the future. So do I I think we're pretty much in this in the same direction about this So now we get to the most important slide of the day and I hope you don't have nightmares about this later tonight, but Well, it's actually positive a nightmare. I suppose so Exponentiality, right? You know what that means is that our world is not progressing linearly anymore And when you count linear you count one two three four five six seven When you count exponential one two four eight sixteen Moore's law Metcalf's law, right? You heard about these things Reality is we're at the takeoff point of an exponential curve Everything that we thought was impossible is indeed becoming possible And that changes our business our culture our society and we're at point four at the next step is eight That's roughly sixteen to eighteen month if we go seven years. We're on a hundred twenty eight If we go 30 steps, we're at a billion Now think about this for a second 30 steps exponential Maybe 50 years It's a vertical Vertical curve of chain The things we're going to see in 30 years are incomprehensible today. We can't even picture it Machines that can think are deficient intelligence Robotics automation Some people are saying we're going to lose up to sixty five percent of all jobs based on automation Is that a good news or bad news? I don't know you will discuss that right? Hopefully they will not be in banking. I'm just kidding. They will be but we'll we'll discuss what that means And what our options are and just as an important fact, I think it's really important for us to say Technology is not a savior Technology can be a saving point in your business and that's why we're talking about it But it will not save your business if the model is bad We'll talk more about what that means and where that's going But in this curve that you've just seen wait and see means wait to die It's a very strange thing to say in Switzerland, right? I mean I I'm from Germany originally, but I live in Switzerland Waiting and seeing is very difficult in an exponential world because you're always late and then you're really late And then you're totally late and then you're dead Because it's exponential So in this curve we're facing this one challenge. I think every day and that's this right People are linear We don't improve exponentially. We cannot store more memory right now We don't have more friends because we have Facebook we don't have more time We don't get more sleep just because we use technology the opposite Technology is exponential humans all in here You know what companies are saying how many companies I work with they're saying essentially Humans are expensive Technology is getting cheaper. So you know what that means, right? Use more technology use less humans And this is the discussion of course that's raging around the world. What do we do with this? If you're my age and you've worked in a job say 20 years and all of a sudden a machine comes and says you know what? It's complicated, but I figured out what you're doing Like IBM Watson using analytics to figure out medical records So now we're moving into a world that if we continue to imagine our future in a linear way We may have catastrophic results We may actually think about the scale and the speed in the entirely different way So one of the themes of my work in my book is this thing that science fiction is becoming science fact and In many ways you can say that is a good thing for example the science fiction of curing cancer I mean that that will be amazing if we can do that and I think we can eventually the science fiction of having enough water for everyone Descalination that's science fiction, but it's happening Abundant energy through solar renewable is going to happen in 20 years abundant energy Again sound like science fiction, but here's another science fiction Artificial intelligence is contributing to the change of society 10 times as fast and three times 300 times the scale of the industrial revolution That's 3,000 times the scale that we're seeing because of artificial intelligence It's very important for us to think about what that means for our work Because now this is a new mantra and change is happening gradually then suddenly In other words, we don't see much and we think is not happening and boom It's there. I mean think about the self-driving car We talked about the self-driving car and electric cars for 50 years Right the first electric car was in the 30s It didn't happen. We thought about machines that can think five or six times in artificial intelligence, right didn't happen Just because something didn't happen the first time does not mean it will not happen this time It's a very important lesson to learn It's gradually then suddenly it's basically not at all and then boom it takes off So if you think that you're safe think again It feels very safe because you're making a lot of money You're doing quite well, but the change that comes is gradually then all of a sudden in a giant curve And you can see what happened in the music business the media business the publishing business That's what's going to happen to banking in a more positive way I hope right because we're here today tackling the future so in terms of what the future brings There's a bunch of things I want to show you want to skip the translation demo because I don't have my mobile But things have become science fiction actually have become sense fact Let's show some examples of this. We have a video clip queued up with five things What about tulips? beautiful arrangements here Knows where my mother lives seamlessly puts all that together and we'll go ahead and buy that That's it. The flowers are on the way It's been two weeks since last time you call your mom don't you miss her Maybe it's time to stop garling with each other with his artificial intelligence pillow recognizes each and every member of your family and Starts caring for them Clara. Here are your cholesterol pills. I see you're running low. Shall I reorder them for you? Thank you. Pila that'd be great. Can you hear me French? Oh Yeah New ways to visualize our work How's the traffic from Pebble Rock school to the airport your normal route has heavy traffic There's a faster one that'll take about 35 minutes. I've sent it to your phone Yeah talking about science fiction science fact There's thousands of those kind of things right and when you watch this movies like pillow you could say this is not real This is actually not working right it turns out it is working and people are doing this three million US users have Amazon Echo in their living room Listening to everything that they're saying I thought up. We probably wouldn't do that in Switzerland, but Think about what that means. I basically this is a huge title shift and Trillions of dollars are invested in changing our behavior God knows what's next, you know, you could speak to pillow and say, you know, find the right woman to get married you know, and it will go off and acquire it I suppose but Underlying all the seeds is a clear thing. That's happening with the internet, right? Is that everything is becoming connected being here in Switzerland? I use a central theme that is the cow It is even the cows are getting connected and that's literally true Because we want to find out how they've been eating their mating behavior. You know, maybe we can Get them to be intelligent as well But clearly this is a syndrome like there will not be a single thing in the world left That is not connected that logistics and cars and airplanes and cargo ships and spare parts and right and That is going to create new business models that are unheard of But it's also going to create a giant vortex of information that Who actually is in charge of I mean doesn't matter for the cows, obviously They're going to end up in the slaughterhouse anyway, but what about us? Clearly the internet of thing is what I call the land of milk and money I have to think about where we're going and what does it do all these trends are actually converging the combinatorial I Mean they're not just one thing happening. They're like 50 things happening at the same time And this is the central thing that's happening This is the most central thing that's happening the convergence of man woman and Machine when I say man I talk about all of us, right? That's just the term right human So this convergence is now with us If you're my age you think okay, that's kind of a strange thing you get used to it right if you're 15 This sounds completely normal to you and The kids of the 15 years old they will not exist without that You know right now we feel lonely without a mobile device Maybe in 10 years. We won't won't even get up We won't even start our systems without being connected to the network I mean clearly this is a huge change young and basically it's creating a giant Technological vortex and that is kind of like this power right the power of technology The attraction of technology Cheaper more powerful more useful More omnipresent There'll be six and a half billion people connected to the internet by 2020 and About 78% by 2025 there won't be a single place left including the Swiss Alps We well that's already the case right where you cannot go on the internet This vortex is extremely powerful and I would submit to you right now 90% of that is a good thing For example being able to talk on Messaging apps for free without kids But the rest of it is creating also a kind of addiction And also creating a wormhole that for example you can do things like use tinder for dating So you don't have to bother with real dating or just swipe right? It's creating a shortcut the simulation Creating things that we thought we would do in person You know the world famous psychologist Daniel Kahneman once said that cognition you know understanding is Embodied and we don't think with the brain we think with the body If we use technology to think We're obviously not going to use the body for the time being Are we missing something right? Where are we going? What is the wormhole as a default? So I want to talk to you about a bunch of shifts that are happening around this wormhole society. I think you're probably aware of those and There's a major chapter in my book on this and that's actually available online And so here are the keywords a little bit Quite a few of them so I'll try not to make it too scholarly here But digitization is something that all of us know about we don't have to talk much about that, right? But the next one mobilization essentially means that everything that is digital is becoming mobile Computing is no longer on the desktop You know that but the next destination of mobile is to just be in the clouds. I just speak to the computer I don't actually have a mobile. I just speak to it mobilization screenification Everything that used to be in writing is a screen now It's mediated that we use to swipe or have access to information most importantly for your businesses datafication everything that used to not be connected transactions Conversations like when you go to the doctor the doctor scribbles down what you have and puts it in some file It's all digital now, right? Your device is talking to the doctor. You're diagnosed design the cloud datafication is a major trend and at least the next one which is Intellectualization not a real word, but Making things intelligent in the business of banking and financial if you can datify and make intelligent That's half the rent Because they create whole new opportunities and that brings also this right. This is a good and a bad thing, right? Nobody wants to be automated None of us want to be automated automated away as a futurist. I face this thing every day Where now I see a company is inventing what I call the future bot, right? Is you can speak to a computer and ask them about the future you get an answer you check out IBM Watson, right? So I'm being automated just give me another year and I'll be just a bot standing here This intermediation this is of course your problem All right There's so many people using technology just to eat little pieces of what you used to do and Every day there's a new entity eating another little piece If you want to know about this intermediation look no further than Airbnb What happened there, you know coming into the back door This is a crucial thing when once we know this we can move on and think about what the next thing is right basically from here we go to virtualization all The stuff that used to be physical is now in the cloud music in the cloud films in the cloud Medical records in the cloud money in the cloud cars in the cloud becoming virtualized Like software defined networking prediction We've always thought that computers can do this, but now they really can Give it five more years when we have supercomputers We can come to a place where computers can predict the social security spending in the next five years on a pretty accurate level or unemployment Things like that. So it's a mind-boggling change that very important for us. If you understand the mega shifts You can futurize your business You can think about what impact that will have on your business The first thing about changing your business is not to buy more technology Is to understand those changes that are coming and then invest in the right technology This is the bottom line of one of those things is that really it's been said for 15 years If you haven't seen this then you've probably lifted an Antarctica or something data is the new oil And data is the power of the world There's only one currency that matters. So two currencies really is data and trust If you're looking at this slide a little bit hard to see on here on the left 2006 the most powerful companies in the world were Oil companies and some banks, you know, there's one lonely bank of this group of market caps Just ten years later the oil companies are still here, of course I I still have seen them somewhere, but they're declining in importance and it's the tech companies are running the world, right? Apple alphabet that's of course Google and right underneath this make no mistake about this. These are not just Americans the next strain of this 25 Chinese companies Alibaba Baidu and so on, right? The power in the world is shifting to those companies and here's a key question. I have for you We regulated oil heavily and it still was a problem We regulated nuclear and it was still a problem. We're not regulating data We're not actually anywhere close to regulating those Technology companies and data companies should we or should we not I'm not going to answer that question. I'll leave that to you It's a five-minute conversation Just kidding. So The important thing that's happening today, however, is that as we move forward It's important to realize what the disruption factors are and here's four of them And I would say before I start with this the financial industry fills every four every one of those four factors Complex environments where you have regulation you have confusion. You don't know what people are doing You don't have transparency. You have trust issues after the financial crisis clearly Banks are the least trusted it's getting a little bit better now, but for a while. There was a huge trust crisis You have obsolete intermediaries Like a music publisher right or a record label. I mean does any artist still sign with the record label? You just go on YouTube Means we'll have an artist later tonight. She is independent. She's not with a record label That would have been unheard of last one is restricted access That's information that you have that the client does not As soon as you have artificial intelligence the client walks to the machine He says show me asset management possibilities for 10,000 euros in real-time performance every 10 seconds And the engine will invest it for you It may not be good enough yet But clearly we're heading on to a world where those things are becoming a wave a tidal wave of change You've noticed a tidal wave of change in the past the music business The e-commerce business Media phone calls. I mean if you're a telecom company phone calls are totally a commodity and And everything you do is becoming a commodity So what do you do then the car company is right on top of that wave right now? It's amazing to see how in six years the most important thing for car companies is not to sell cars But to sell mobility Mercedes-Benz just announced a couple weeks ago at an event where I spoke that they are shifting from selling units to selling services I mean think about that for a second, right? This is our mind-boggling change And you're on the same loop. This wave is going to continue education banking medical insurance food government and military 80% of military spending in 10 years will be cyber security Cloud all that stuff that is essentially virtual So it's no longer the top topic of saying that you know, it's really important to disrupt stuff I mean you've seen the recent wave a few years ago about the so-called unicorn right the companies that are funded for a billion dollars of private money Their primary motivation was disruption. Well, it's quite obvious now. It's not enough to disrupt. I Mean as you can see about the current debates about uber and Airbnb and hundreds of other companies it's not enough to have a mind-boggling changing idea and just Know skin the cream off the top you have to actually create an ecosystem You have to actually make sense and this is your opportunity as an incumbent if you work for the incumbent company Construction is something that you know so if your UBS or if you're if you're an all-company or record label, right and This is really what that means This is the shift of value we're seeing in society from selling commodities to making goods to delivering services To creating experiences you think about that for a second the most important company in the world today The tech companies this is what they do right they create an experience I mean Facebook owns no media Airbnb doesn't own any rooms Uber doesn't own any cars. All they do is create an experience Partly virtual experience. So this is the key for the future. I think of the financial industry stage experiences and You know what that means it does not mean using fancy technology. Yes, of course, that's part of it, right? It means creating human experiences value trust relationships and Have technology support this so basically what we're seeing here is this giant change in the Towards the experience economy that has been predicted for years and it's finally happening so in this world This is what's happening all around us Again, it looks a little bit dystopian But many good things about it and we figured we would shake you up a little bit before you go back into the Law of checking your blackberries We're moving it to world that is essentially creating what I call a global brain This world has every single point of information about you Your browse your history your mobile devices your medical records your driving records what you've purchased and when digital money Comes right this cloud will just explode Because everything is collected in the in this cloud whatever can be automated will be automated Things are mind-boggling shifts into where we are going with this how business is changing and we may ask the question Is this just going to be big brain or big brother? How do we make sure that the global brain is not the global big brother? We'll talk about that in the panel later Clearly if you were intent to become the owner of the global brain There's about 15 companies who are shooting for this in fact Google has a project called the global brain There's 15 companies who want to do this can we trust them? Who are they? I mean look at this the exponential growth of computing possibilities said in 2050 we'll have one computer that has the capacity of all human brains All human brains right now we have one or two computers one is in China one is in the US and one is in CERN I think that has the capacity of one human brain Roughly 20 quadrillion calculations per second computer cost a trillion dollars and takes up this entire power of the city of Geneva, right? But this is the exponential curve Quantum computing I've you heard about this is going to mind-boggling change And and so what's happening here is that as we're moving on this curve? We're getting to a point that sometimes referred to as a singularity The point of where machine can match human capacity We're not talking about emotional capacity, right? We're talking about processing And this is a might very minor part of what we are doing actually But let's think about that as being equivalent to the brain. So that is roughly ten years away In ten years computers can do what we are doing today right now a computer can beat the world champion and go But it cannot talk to a two-year-old Because it's unstructured In just two years. We're going to have language translation in 50 languages like I The demo showed in a way of saying that we are live translating. So here's the key question for us Do you think we should go to a place where we transcend what we are? I think it's much more important to go to this place that I call Exponential humanism We are going to need to embrace exponential technology. There's no way back, right? If we don't embrace technology, we become uncompetitive We become slow and then you can move to Amish country if you want to do that, right? It's not going to we can't disconnect We cannot not be part of that and we cannot say we will not use computers that can think right that we're like saying We don't want to use the telephone But to create a balance of this also a brand and a purpose, right? How about being exponentially human? Why do you think your customers come to you? Do they come to you because you have a fancy app? Or a great database or you see I always a great guy. They come to you because of relationships The marriage of relationships and technology is really what we're after And that's ultimately what some of the new companies don't have, right? They're built. They're working on that very hard and they may actually get to it, but this is really important, so Technology can be both heaven or hell This is important to realize that what we're doing right now is we're creating technologies that have mind-boggling positive potential Solving global problems making transactions cheaper making a lot of us very rich But we also can create technology that can be destructive to us For example today a lot of kids around Facebook. Well, it's no longer kids It's people between 30 and 50 and still call them kids, right? But political action means going to Facebook and pushing a like button on something right that's political action Not really You would say that's interesting, but that's really quite different actually doing something So technology replaces sometimes things that we should be doing And certainly if you think about computers that can think think about this for a second If we get to the point where we have computers doing this we may have computers with an IQ of 50,000 We may then have computers with an IQ of five million Imagine that that machine would run your bank Well in a sense of being the new chief machine officer, I suppose right? It's really about stewardship We have to figure out how we're going to run this who is in charge What are the rules? Cannot just be open for everyone and certainly we cannot let us regulation dictate what we do around the world I mean right now 95% of this is actually made in the US, right? So what does it mean for us here and for the rest of the world is hell then right hell and heaven and I will propose to you that you think about the future as trying to maximize the hell and minimize Maximize the heaven. Yeah, that's a good one. That's our furtive mr. German mistake so This is a very important topic for us right the temptation of technology The temptation is to say everything that we can automate we will automate because we can fire 90% of people if you run call centers You're going to fire 90% of people Because call centers can be automated as soon as computers understand lag, but it's over. That's two years away We're talking about 40 million jobs here 23 million truck drivers in the US Not all of them will go but most of them accountants Accounting you mean You know numbering things and figures. Yes, you can automate that But here's the key question I mean in the end this temptation also means that we can get to a point where a company of a hundred thousand people All of a sudden has five thousand people and the same revenues So the question really is what should be automated? What should not be automated? We shouldn't ask the question in the next board meeting What can we automate and virtualize but also the question what shouldn't we automate and here's one key message on this and Customer happiness cannot be automated You cannot automate the most important things in our lives when relationships trust happiness The things that we don't even know how to put into an algorithm Right, we still don't know how we have emotions in terms of biology and this is a trend that drives it right now We have machines that can do what's called cognitive computing Lots of companies working on this IBM being the most well-known one if you have a second go to YouTube and watch the IBM videos Featuring Bob Dylan About artificial intelligence. I don't know how they got him to do that, but it's a great video in this world Right all of a sudden we face a situation where algorithms are right next to what I call andro rhythms This is an artificial world, but keep this in mind the future of businesses really two things right technology Algorithms machine learning all the stuff that we're doing our big data cloud computing and this right human purpose brand connection responsibility empathy compassion Things that computers will never understand at least for the foreseeable future They may understand it, but they can't be it. There's a very big difference So it's very important to master both if you have kids you think about this for a second You don't want your kids to be tech people only Unless they're brilliant Nobel Prize winners Because tech will be automated if you're in the pharma business You're already using a tool called cloud biology Which has taken the lab and putting it into the cloud and running simulations of labs So if you're a programmer just a few years from now, it's the machine that will program itself So understanding people is a crucial thing for the future right mastering that we have to use technology as a tool That not as a purpose the purpose is what we have over here So there's a new trend that you've seen all around is Intelligent digital assistance is the main topic in this conference, right? I call them IDAs And they're popping up left and right. Here's the big thing about this, right? If you think that we're going to use websites and apps For a long time you're seriously mistaken because what is happening right now is that we're going to start talking to computers because it is actually working I Already talked to my computer to dictate emails. Some of you may do that already It's only roughly two years away in five years. Most of us will not type We will not use apps We're going to speak to whatever box there is and say figure out how to invest my 20,000 euros Book me a flight to Miami Because this bot knows everything there is about you literally like Amazon Echo right observing you That could be a nightmare or it could be a good thing But this is essentially a way where you could say if you wanted to be ironic You could say that the machines will kind of live for us, right? There's a strange view of the world where we'll discuss that in the panel of where that is going to take us Do you want to live in a world like this where these bots and intelligent assistants go deep diving in your brain? And that's really what they're doing if you use Siri and Cortana or Amazon Echo or Google home That's what they're doing. They're going inside of your head fishing Fishing to what to sell you I'm not saying it's a bad thing. It's just a question of who would you actually want to go? Deep driving in your brain Who will you and what are they liable for? Right now there is no liability or whatever whatever can be done is being done, right? This is a huge issue. We have to think about whether it's taken us or are you ready to augment yourself? Are you ready to enter a world where you say you know what it's so great? I wish I could connect and have more processing capability It's like the the agro of the mind Always on creating a digital copy of a set obviously extremely convenient, but are we still going to be people if we do this? Should we transcend humanity? Let me ask you a simple question If tomorrow you are able to use a technology to increase your IQ so you can work faster Would you use it? I mean people doing that today using drugs right so-called new no not not those drugs new tropics, right? Drugs that can beef up your performance like caffeine, but better, right? I Think if we think about using technology to amplify ourselves at a certain point. It's not an upgrade. It's a downgrade Because we're going to lose things that we actually want to keep like mystery surprise accidents mistakes Lying right? I mean lying is a bad thing, but It's human nature that we lie. Do you want to take that away because it's inefficient? And I'm not entirely sure right it is time for sort of a tribal power on this future where it's going, right? And in this future that has been depicted a minority report I mean do we want to live in such a future where everything is just a download, right? Sometimes I say you know we weren't downloaded. We were born There are people who want to change that in fact So these are all things happening all around us. So we're going to take a little poll And you get to use your mobiles again, and Okay, this is a very important question For your business because you're going to ask people to augment themselves, right? So let's go back to menti.com if you used it before if you're not inept on using a mobile Smartphone and you've used it before that's fantastic refresh the page put in the code 1760 93 And just really quick give me a response. How do you feel about man machine converging? Does it make you worried? Does it make you feel scared? Where exactly is it going? Wow, there must be quite a few people here from Silicon Valley It's inevitable Okay, very good. We have an interesting fragmentation here But I can see already brainwashed you by saying we should embrace technology but not become it Keep voting you're doing the right thing Okay You know, it's very interesting if I do this in America all the response on the left side Right. It's an after the war. We're gonna do it if I do it in Switzerland only with Swiss people It's all on the right side. I will not talk about Germany. We'll leave that out for a second, right? But it's an interesting mix, right? How do you feel about man machine converging? We keep this running keep voting. Okay, the whole thing is up and running while we're talking just remember this where it's going So here's a challenge in our world, right Technology is magic. I Mean, I love magic technology And I can't remember the first time I got a blackberry was thinking like oh god now I can actually leave AOL And get my emails on the beach in Phuket. That's fantastic. My wife hated it, but I still use it, but This is the keyword in all keynotes when if you listen to Steve Jobs every second sentence, right? and it's true Magic technology being able to affording us things that we were literally not able to do before and then sometimes Becoming manic, you know, like we would feel like we're not complete without that technology We wake up in the middle of the night and we make a Facebook update, right? That that is kind of manic or sitting around the table and twittering to each other instead of talking we treat to each other and the next thing is Technology is becoming toxic in many ways polluting our relationships For example, if we do things on Facebook that are between friends and all of a sudden They have a much wider audience including our employer, right? That is a toxic effect if we get fired Because there's a people analytics engine, right? Some of you may know about people analytics in HR to that filters all of our activities and says this person is dispensable Based on their tweets and the LinkedIn post or if we have drones that can kill people without human supervision There's only one count two countries in the world that are proposing for this to be okay The US and the UK and of course they make them. This is why it should not be forbidden, right? But this is a toxic use of technology Allowing a drone to decide if the four-year-old girl is an enemy or not It's bad enough if a person has to decide that right, but this is a huge thing of really changing our world Just imagine once we have augmented reality and virtual reality We're going to live inside of this world. We're going to evaporate in this world Magic manic toxic we should not allow technology Providers and technologies to create too many toxic effects We need to make them responsible just like the gun Manufacturers are responsible for the use of a gun and the availability of a gun, right guns don't kill people people kill people Same thing we have to think about what that means for us. We're moving into a world. We're completely surrounded by technology Should there be liability there should there be understanding of the context this is changing our society so dramatically We won't even know who we are in 10 years, and it also has great potential. So we really need to think about Leaving room for human inefficiency Imagine you live in a world where you can't smoke a cigar because it would be public record that you did Well, you don't get insurance because you drive too aggressively Where what you say on Facebook gets your barred for immigration. That's already the case, right? I mean that world is a world that we probably don't want to live in so how do we remain human? How do we not forget ourselves? Where do we go from here? Do we go to this world? I? Mean it is interesting that people have been suggesting that we're becoming as God You know I'm not religious, but but we have superpower now All of you have literally superpower now today on the smartphone You have more processing power than the president of the US 20 years ago in a smartphone You know Mark Andreessen the famous entrepreneur said that softwares eating the world In 2011 and it's very true, right? Everything around us has become software and That's the whole debate of this event right when things become software when money becomes software. What do we do? But now maybe software is also cheating the world Telling us things that really aren't entirely true because it's not good enough I'll give you the trip advisor example you guys use trip advisor If you only go where trip advisor tells you you are in deep trouble Trip advisor is a fantastic tool. I use it all the time. It does good things, right? But it's not the reality. It's if the slice of reality and the same is true for data It's very important to keep that in mind How do we do this? Where do we go from here, right? How do we do this and the most important topic of this is happiness? Think about this for a second Can technology make us happy? Can we have technology that is essentially an app for happiness? Me it's interesting to see that there's about 47 Divorce apps on the on the iStore on the right you can actually use an app to get divorced if you're unhappy, right? So technology says it can do all the things but Einstein already said if we measure the wrong thing we do the wrong thing We have to be very careful with this because like the Tesla self-driving car lots of things can go wrong We can't act it like it's like it's a person. It's a little bit like GDP, you know gross domestic product Bobby Kennedy already said in the 60s GDP measures everything except that which makes life worthwhile So when you think about happiness, you know, how do we measure happiness? How do we go to a combination of what in Bhutan is called gross national happiness? You think about your customers you want them to be gross national happy with you, right and not just buy stuff This is a much more complex thing than technology does so basically this Forces us to consider what is happening what I call digital ethics Those two things and you every day in your jobs you have to balance those two things Here's the bottom line technology does not have ethics It doesn't give a damn about our morals our ethics our collective culture whatever you had in mind It can understand that stuff because we can find out that you're angry for example, right? But it doesn't care. It's an engine. It's zeros and ones, right? And maybe some technology will eventually be able to replicate this from us But technology cannot exist. It cannot be like we do So technology has no ethics, but imagine a society without ethics, and I'm not talking about religion I'm talking about ethics the bottom line human understanding The Dalai Lama said that ethics is much more important than religion And this is really what we have to think about the cards that we have on the table The human cards, right? They're the same cards than 10,000 years ago But technology is adding new cards every single day It's adding new cards that are giving us a possibility of being overrun by technology So digital ethics is a key term and so the question I have for you when you're looking at the future Which way are you going to go? Are you going to be on what I call team robot? Which is using technology to substitute people Are you going to be on team human where you sit on top of technology? That's a key question What do you think will make the most money? Well, some companies would argue that of course being team robot makes most money That's a question we have to answer. I think it's a bad idea But you know in terms of monetization and maybe it's a mix of the two is not black or white, of course, right? But are you on team human is what you're proposing to your customer? Is that based on being on team human? Which way are you going in this new world where you're going into a city, right? And one way you go into Alago town and the other one you go into You make those decisions every single day And of course the reality is it's not black or white. It's a complete mix at all times right we do have to think about what that means and basically thinking about Putting inside, you know our proposal putting inside a way of thinking as this as a humanity that is inside Rather than technology, you know in the old days you'd have to stick or that said what is inside? You know Intel inside and today it's going to be about this right? It's going to be about are you actually still human? Do you have a brand do you have a purpose do you stand for something are you responsible and that is ultimately our value of value proposition And if you can take technology and put human inside on human on top You're going the right directions So I have a brief summary and then we're going to move on to our panel because we're already a little bit late here Four key points that I want to propose for discussion point number one Really a very simple one, you know, we really do have to have a public debate about what we're doing here How far do we allow technology to proceed who's in charge? That's why we're doing this right this whole discussion about the things that that we are going to deliver and the things that Where we are going and so on right and the basic income guarantee that we voted on here in Switzerland in 20 years We may very well find ourselves out of work because technology and computers are doing the work for us. I Don't know. That's a really tough one. That's sort of post-capitalism You could say that is a tough debate. It was actually not voted for you in Switzerland We need understanding on ethics What do we agree on? Sometimes I say we need an environment protection agency for humanity, you know an EPA for humanity Protecting what we stand for and we're going to have to figure out just like nuclear energy What is the point about artificial super intelligence? Where does it go? It's as powerful as nuclear Many debates about this. We need a non-proliferation agreement. We need to move forward to a way where this allows us To actually do this and think about this. Okay, let's move forward. We're going to go to our debate We're very soon. We have a short summary and then we're going forward. So here's a new poll. That's the final poll And this is a little bit more intricate. We're giving more you can come in if you want We can give you some more feedback here basically on this poll menti.com You have a choice of one to ten One is that you don't agree at all and ten is you agree a lot and We're summarizing the statements of today's show. Okay, so if you don't agree at all just Leave it on one and go all the way down and then submit. Okay Indicate your opinion on each of those options Just relax with the music for a little bit and let us know what you think before I tell you what I think which I'm very good at Okay, are you in there? Don't give up on the voting. There you go Very good We're gonna see if we can publish those on Twitter later so you can see what people have actually thought of okay We keep voting on this it's quite interesting to see the results and we'll post them on Twitter because we're a little bit out of time now Let me paraphrase what I think is most important We're on the pivot point of an exponential evolution. We're at the takeoff point We're gonna change more in the next 20 years in the previous 200 years Technology should not be what we seek but how we seek because it doesn't have ethics, but we depend on it In terms of all of these things happening the speed is mind-boggles It's really really important to figure out who is mission control for humanity or should there be a mission control for humanity So the future is technology, but we may want to think about transcending it from algorithms to what I call andro rhythms And the qualities that actually do make us human Important summary of the day is embrace technology, but don't become it That's my key message and that's why you're here to embrace technology in this future I think it'll be much better for us to think about embracing technology and as I like to say for the very last statement Paraphrasing Steve Jobs stay happy stay human Thanks very much for listening. Thanks for your time. Stick around for the panel and I do want to thank everybody involved in this production