 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network It is time to talk some player props for the conference championships in the NFL And there is a lot to discuss and we've got the best in the business to do so for today That is JJ Zachary So we're to talk player props across both of the key games on a Sunday with JJ picking his brain and where he sees value And then later on we'll talk Austin Cass and talk some EPL for match week 22 This is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network and fan dual research. My name is Jim Sonus I am a managing editor of digital media for a fan dual research joined here to start things off by JJ Zachary's and check them out on Twitter at late round QB Fun is work at late round comm in the late round fantasy football podcast No, so has prospect guide for the 2024 NFL draft now. They'll pre-order. I got mine in on Wednesday So already locked and loaded on mine, but JJ it's our last chat And I'm sad about that because when we're doing the video version I can see you as the intro music is playing and you're usually Dancing or singing during the intro song and so the like brightest part of my Friday will be gone without the dancing or singing So I'm a little bit sad about this none of your none of your other guests are Pitching ninja Rob Friedman Rob Friedman like headbangs like he asked me to sit in the file I've not done so because I'm negligent But like yeah, he asked me to send the file of the intro song because he likes it so much but like he had bangs Yeah, yeah, I should probably put the the the intro on my running playlist. Yeah, you get me fired up Just randomly. I'll be listening to some I Listen to some very bad hip-hop and stuff whenever I'm okay to get like a good beats per minute going You know like have your your pace going with it Yeah, yeah, and then just having that thrown in there for 30 seconds would really you know chef's business to the playlist my workout playlist is Was it on a Madden soundtrack in the 2000s? It is probably on my playlist and it's probably been there like it's probably in my like Spotify on repeat to Yeah, like like Andrew W K party hard on there. Yeah. Yeah, there's like There are some unthinkable things that I refuse to admit publicly on there And I've like gone to concerts for these people and it's like I just can't stop listening to old Madden soundtracks And I don't like I got update no judgment here I have a playlist on Spotify called video game soundtracks and it's got a bunch of Madden songs got some Tony Hawk songs Yeah, Tony Hawk soundtrack back in the day was straight straight fire MVP baseball 2005 Shredded there you go shredded. Was that the one with Manny on the front? Yeah, as Manny it had the song like Tessie by Dropkick Murphy's It had a bunch of really good ones Omi and I owe you I think was on there I'm just gonna go through these again later on today So this is this has been an uplift once again, so even as I no longer to watch you watch I still get to benefit from our conversations Yes as I go back through MVP baseball 2005 the soundtrack later on today We're gonna dig into player props for both games here with JJ to get you ready for those Outline where he sees value of fan to a sportsbook and again later on today Austin Castle joined the show to break down his thoughts on EPL match week 22 Which begins next week on Tuesday But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We are still here every weekday throughout the non NFL season as well breaking down NBA NHL we'll talk some NASCAR before the Daytona 500 all that stuff in the mix here on the podcast feed and of course on Fandal TV plus and the Fandal YouTube page as well so make sure to subscribe in your platform of choice You like what you hear leave us a five star rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or a thumbs up over on YouTube now JJ let's begin things by talking about the Ravens and the cheese game on the cheese side for props We know where the ball is going on the Raven side Beats me man any baseline props you're targeting here for Ravens versus chiefs. Yeah, so let's start at the tight end position I think tight ends really interesting because Kansas City This season has funneled a lot of targets towards the tight end position I know last week Buffalo didn't use their tight ends the way in my opinion the way they should have and I think that's part of The reason why they lost that game is because they didn't use concave and knocks in the way that they should have But you know, obviously this Baltimore offense uses their tight ends at a pretty decent rate even without Mark Andrews You know over the last X number of weeks Isaiah likely just stepped in and seen like a 20% target share pretty consistently within that offense So you got Mark Andrews sounds like probably coming back They're being a little bit weird about it because whether they think it's a competitive advantage or not I have no idea but Mark Andrews could come back now if you look at his line I think it's 35 and a half right now receiving To me that tells you that you know books are just kind of playing it safe They don't know if he's healthy or not right because if you were healthy that line would be 10 to 15 yard tire Easily, I mean probably even more and so the way that I kind of approached this would be I might go with the under on Just the receiving yardage line because that would tell me okay. He's Not healthy in that case, right? But then I would be more intrigued with like the super overs and like like the bigger bets with him Like one of them. I really like is just this week being the leading receiver in the championship matchups It's plus 2,800 28 to 1 right now Because I think if Mark Andrews plays and is healthy He's gonna hit the over on that mark for sure But I would just rather go harder with it because that line is just naturally a little bit lower So you can hedge a little bit if you want to and say okay He's not healthy So I'm gonna hit the under on his on his normal line and then go with the over and some of these alt lines And you know, you're looking at it right now Jim where you can get some pretty good juice You know even over 50 yards is plus 178 right now So I would look that way with Mark Andrews this week Because I do think that that you know typically we see guys come back and yeah There's gonna be some hindrance But I don't think guys even in the playoffs like like this is around the time frame that they thought that Mark Andrews Could come back from this injury. It's not some rushed job where you know He wouldn't be able to to perform to some at some level into some degree So I do think Andrews is pretty intriguing mostly because the match-up is there and then also Within the that at that offense the chiefs this season They've sort of objectively faced three mobile quarterbacks this year I say objectively because there's you know, let's say that there's like eight truly mobile quarterbacks across the league or something But they face Justin Fields Jalen Hertz and now Josh Allen twice each of those guys hit 10 plus rush attempts against them Josh Allen did that in both games against Kansas City Kansas City actually Jim has allowed the and this is obviously opponent base to some degree But they have allowed the most rush attempts against them this season and obviously Kansas City was a good team This isn't like a kneel down stat or anything like that I mean they were seeing a lot of rush attempts against them That could be because they play man at a decently high rate And that you know allows running or allows quarterbacks to kind of just get out there scramble And if they don't see it, you know, these guys are covering their individual players and so they can just kind of run Lamar Jackson right now his rush attempt number is 10 and a half. I'm tempted to take that over Because of the way that the chiefs have defended the quarterback position this season and then there's Isaiah Pacheco I know that he's banged up. There's some question marks there. It sounds like he's gonna go I mean earlier this week. He said I'm going to play His line his rushing our line I think his rushing our line is important to focus on here because they haven't been using him that much as a receiver Over the last couple of games that they played So there is a little bit of ambiguity as to You know, is he gonna see the target share that we need him to see to hit a total number? But it's 63 and a half rushing yards. I like the over there He's hit this by really good margin and each of his last three games The Ravens were good against against Devon Singletary last week. Yes But that was also a pretty negative game script and you know It's just not the way that this Texan's offense is not necessarily this like massively great rushing attack and running offense But against good running max the last month or so Baltimore They faced Najee Harris in a pretty irrelevant game. I understand that and then Devon HN CMC Kyron Williams all of those guys including Najee Harris went over a hundred yards rushing against Baltimore And so again Pacheco's receiving numbers. They haven't been that strong But his rushing numbers have been there And he saw 88% of the team's running mac rushes this past week Derek McKinnon being sidelined. We've seen a good bump in those splits with Pacheco So I'm gonna go with the over there and I think that could hit regardless of game scripts and with Pacheco's health I'm pretty sure the injury occurred in that run down the left sidelined that he had and he kind of like turned his ankle And they said it's an ankle slash toe injury for him He came back in the game after that and like you said said on Wednesday, I'm gonna play Yeah, so that to me says decent amount of conviction He'll go you talked about that match but the Texans I think we'll see a pretty similar schematic approach for the Ravens defense where they're they're very malleable to their opponent It's the Texans last week. They said like we dare you to run and the Texas are like we can't man Yeah, but the Chiefs can and I think they've proven that even with Joe Tooney likely out I still think they can run the football against this defense So because they're a team that can beat you in multiple ways and actually can with the ball on the ground I think we'll see the Ravens inviting them to the run and Hopefully Andy Reed has the patience to keep with that, but I think based on what we've seen the past Month and a half. I think he will have that patient. Yeah. Yeah, I think they have to too I mean look at like like they've had a deficiency at wide receiver all season long I mean, it's been an issue for them all year and now you're in the conference championship You got to rely on on what got you there and what's helped you and that's a decent enough run game and Isaiah Pacheco playing Well, and obviously Travis Kelsey and Rishi Rice. That's the offense right now, right? So props JJ locks likes here as far as the yardage numbers likes Mark Andrews under 35 and a half minus 110 But then potentially also alt markets on Andrews to lead the conference championships in receiving 28 to 1 But also some alt markets 50 plus receiving yards is plus 178 Lamar Jackson over 10 half rushes minus 115 and as a Pacheco over 63 and a half rushing yards That is minus 110. What about touchdown props anything stand out to you in this game there Yeah, look the other thing that I think you could go with and this is related to the touchdown prop But I think Justice Hill's receiving numbers really intriguing. It's 12 and a half He's basically gotten there and three of his last four He didn't last week, but I don't anticipate the game script necessarily being the same against Kansas City as it was against Houston If it's closer, then they're gonna likely use a back out of the backfield as a receiver more frequently And Baltimore was a pretty run heavy team this past week in general So I think that's intriguing, but also Justice Hill this past week played 57% of Baltimore snaps in games where he's hit 50% snap rate. He said over 10 rush attempts as a medium And so he's you know, you could also bet his over in rush attempts if you want to as well Which is like seven and a half but given all that so I think that you know They're using him a little bit more or they did there's a lot of volatility to the Baltimore backfield There's no doubt and so I'm just gonna embrace the volatility a little bit and look at him as an any-time touchdown score at plus 300 and say look last week, you know Everyone obviously will look at Gus Edwards and say you're the goal line back and that's true But last week Justice Hill actually played more snaps in the red zone than Gus Edwards did and that's not that Inconsistent in what we've seen throughout the season and so you're really asking and hoping for Maybe a seven to 15-yard touchdown as opposed to a goal line look from the running back Because I do think that Gus Edwards would still be the goal line guy But they use Justice Hill basically that's what I'm getting at they use Justice Hill in a pretty decent way this past week And we know that he's gonna be on the field for a lot of those receiving reps And I feel more confident about this too because we did see them with Dalvin cook last week Maybe they give Dalvin cook a little bit more work But he was just an end-of-game kind of grinder for them which could happen again if they do end up winning So I like Justice Hill at plus 300 as an anytime touchdown score Okay, plus rated for Justice Hill and I think that like we talked about this from a data perspective But from like a you know watch the film bro perspective Justice Hill looked good. He's got so yeah Like why bother deviating if it's working the way it is and he could get here via a receiving touchdown too So it doesn't have to be just the rushing stuff for Justice Hill So I think three to one very good number for him Let's talk now about the second game on a Sunday. That is the Lions at the 49ers We've seen some movement here again towards the over It's now 51 and a half and the spread is up to seven and a half in favor of the 49ers here for the Niners and Lions game We do have key props up despite the fact that Debo Samuel's Availability is up in the air so any value in yardage or usage props here for the Lions and 49ers Yeah, one thing I'll say about Debo where I don't necessarily feel this way about Mark Andrews Is that we've seen Debo in the past play and sort of be a decoy? And so that could happen again, which means if he does play I wouldn't automatically just like drastically lower a Brandon Ayuk or a CMC Projection because we have seen in the past even this season, you know Debo be banged up and sort of just be on the field and not get a lot of looks With that being said, I think just from like a general football perspective You know a guy like Ayuk is not playing the same type of wide receiver as a guy like Debo Samuel Player like Christian McCaffrey is playing the same kind of of role in that offense as a Debo Samuel You know closer to the line of scrimmage targets lower a dot looks the short area targets And he did have insane usage last week. I mean last week CMC saw every single Running back rush for the 49ers and then he also saw 33 percent target share in that offense And so I am intrigued a little bit if we learn that Debo's out or if you want to bet it now If you think that he could be a decoy I am pretty intrigued by Christian McCaffrey hitting the over of his receiving yard line Now it's not the best matchup in the world last week's matchup way better against Green Bay for Christian McCaffrey than this Detroit one is But I actually think what I'm more what I have more conviction Towards and about is actually the running backs on the Lions and not Christian McCaffrey I have Jameer Gibbs over 22 and a half receiving yards. I also have David Montgomery over five and a half receiving yards I think both those numbers are just too low just naturally too low San Francisco this season Jim they've allowed the fourth highest adjusted target share to running backs and they've allowed the seventh most raw Running back receiving yards. So when teams face the 49ers Oddly because obviously they have a good front They're targeting their running backs at a slightly higher rate that could be game script related That's fine Look at the game script of what this game is likely going to and how this game is likely going to unfold Jameer Gibbs has been at 43 and 40 receiving yards over their two playoff games and those were in two pretty neutral game scripts He saw four targets and both of them got four passes Again, this negative game script means that they're likely gonna lean on Gibbs a little bit more than David Montgomery And they probably should just given the way I mean Jameer Gibbs last week Jim had like an 89% success rate on the ground It was just absolutely absurd how good he was last week So I think the matchup there and how teams are targeting their running backs is intriguing for Gibbs And the negative game script but David Montgomery I don't mind his over either five and a half receiving yards, you know Obviously, he can maybe catch one and be under that mark, but that's you know, one and a half ish receptions And if you look at his route participation, it's increased in the playoffs by about 10 percentage points So we ran more routes and Gibbs last week exactly exactly So they're using Montgomery more as a receiver and then you you layer on this matchup I think they they need to use Montgomery in that way to keep the defense honest, too And so I just I think that that both of those numbers are just a little bit too low I would bet them I would bet them the Montgomery number up to seven and a half and then the Gibbs number probably up to like 26 27 And you don't do that right now because that right now is as death and will sportsbook as you mentioned Gibbs 22 and a half over his minus 110 same thing for Montgomery over five and a half minus 1 15 for him, and I think so I'll talk about Montgomery running more routes I think what's encouraging for Gibbs is that he looked good in past protection last week Which was not the case earlier on this year like he's stuffed a dude in the hole this past week So I would expect the route numbers to be pretty equal, which is good for both these guys with regards to the prop That you were discussing there. What about the touchdown side of things anything stand out to you in this game there Yeah, I don't love the touchdown market in this game to be honest So I'm just gonna throw a dart and it'll be more fun that way I like Joann Jennings as an anytime touchdown scorer at plus 310 We talked about Debo maybe even being a decoy if Debo doesn't go Maybe this line shifts a little bit, but it might not you could wait as a result of that Just to see if Debo goes or not because I don't know if the books are really gonna make Joann Jennings like a plus 240 or something You know as an anytime touchdown score if Debo's rolled out But that all that being said Joann Jennings is easily the most reliable wide receiver on that team outside of Brandon Iuk and Debo Samuel obviously, you know, he ran 12 more routes last week than Ray Ray of McLeod He actually had a pretty decent performance. He had some big catches in that game, too He's been a reliable player and that's why they kept him around in that offense You know for Kyle Shanahan, so this Detroit secondary to you you can't overstate how bad it is I mean, it's really not a good Secondary so I want to attack that and I'm gonna attack that on the perimeter with their wide receivers I think Joann Jennings as an anytime touchdown score is kind of intriguing and that number has lengthened to plus 350 for Joann Jennings So that's intriguing and he also is gonna be out there, you know, Debo plays and like you mentioned Debo could play hurt which he has done this year and he did that for weeks four and five Wasn't super effective and wasn't heavily utilized in those games So I do think there's a path to a good game for Jennings even if we do get Debo Samuel's Deba Sam playing in this game. All right, that is JJ Zachary So make sure you check him out on Twitter at late round QB fun is work at late round calm and the late round Fantasy football podcast JJ like I said, it's been a delight to have you on the show past couple years appreciated as always Good luck to you in the conference championships and for the offseason as well. Thanks Jim. Appreciate it, buddy Alrighty find JJ on Twitter at late round QB and again find the podcast the late round fantasy football podcast You want the prospect guide? Make sure you check that out by going to a late round calm We can get your pre-orders in right now We're in talks to me PL for the upcoming match week which begins on Tuesday in just one second here with Austin Kass But first as a reminder when it comes to the NFL playoffs You got to win one game at a time when you bet the NFL playoffs on Fandle one game can mean a lot of wins Fandle America's number one sportsbook has all your favorite bets like the money line and spread There's all sorts of prop bets like quarterback passing yards or who will score the first touchdown plus every day There's an NFL playoff game. 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Gamble health icon in Kansas 1-877-770 stop in Louisiana Visit MD gambling health.org in Maryland and 1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia Let's bring on Austin cast now talk about some EPL match week 22 no action this week I'm gonna do pick up with again on Tuesday. You can find Austin on Twitter at Austin cast He is a senior editor for us here at fan door research Austin. Happy Friday to you. How are you doing today? I'm doing really well Jim. How are you? I'm doing well. How are you gonna cope with no EPL this weekend? You know, there's fewer football games on there's no EPL. What do you do with the free time outside of you know, dad stuff I guess yeah, I don't know. I might actually watch some college basketball, which I haven't done much of this year so far Okay. Okay. I got to go to the DePaul Marquette game on Wednesday Over the Northwestern Illinois game for some reason weird choice on my behalf, but red panda was there for halftime So I feel like it was a a good choice despite the fact I actually missed out on a Northwestern win So, you know regardless I can live with that. Let's take a look here at the schedule for match week 22 again The first matches begin on Tuesday, but on Wednesday pretty fun match We got Liverpool taking on Chelsea Liverpool's had a very good year obviously Chelsea has not thus far, but Liverpool may be showing some vulnerability recently Their money line is minus 160. Anything to now to you for this match on Wednesday, Austin? So yeah, I actually really like that Liverpool money line at minus 160 There's a few reasons why it's as short as it is Probably the biggest one is Muhammad Saleh is out due to injury for Liverpool. He's their best player top goal scorer so he's obviously a big miss, but Liverpool at home are just excellent. That's it's been that way throughout their club history and The Anfield advantage has certainly been alive and well under Jurgen Klopp They lead the Premier League and expected goal differential in home matches according to FB refs XG model Through 10 home fixtures. They have eight wins and two draws and even without Saleh They have plenty of attacking talent and least Diaz, Diogo Jota, Darwin Nunez and Cody Gacpo Chelsea have been a much better side than their place in the table indicates, which I think we hinted at in the previous episode their XG differentials actually Fourth best and isn't that much worse than Liverpool's, but the Blues have Really struggled away from home across all competitions. They've lost five of their past six away matches and the lone non-loss Came away at relegation threatened in Luton Town and it was actually a match. They lost on XG 1.5 to 2.3 And then on top of that just news broke today that Jurgen Klopp's leaving Liverpool at the end of the season their manager That's a massive It's got a massive impact on the club overall, but it should also lead to a pretty emotional crowd and performance from the players on Wednesday if you want to head down Narrative Street So I think Anfield is one of the best home field that manages in Europe And even though Saleh is a big miss for Liverpool one of the best players in the league I like them to find a way to get all three points versus Chelsea. Why is he leaving? They're like top of the table right now What's going on? So he's been there much longer than an average manager stays at a club And he just said he was starting to lose energy. Okay. I think this is maybe your seven or eight for him I'm not totally sure on that but Anytime a manager stays more than two or three years. Honestly, it's pretty surprising So yeah, we could see the same thing happen with Pep Guardiola at City here in the next couple years It's just out of club like that Think it's probably pretty exhausting to be in a position where you have to win pretty much every week or else you start coming under pressure So Yeah, that's big news. So are we getting like Jürgen Klopp to Sheffield United if he's tired of winning Is that what we're gonna see here next? I? Highly doubt that I would guess it'll take some time off and then end up at another big club here Maybe the German national team Okay, well if he does go to Sheffield United you heard it here first just know you're covering the spread Please cite us as being the source on that any of the traditional market bets to stand out to you with where things currently stand Yeah, I'm gonna stick with the Wednesday and the Manchester City versus Burnley match I like that to go over three and a half goals, which is minus 106 so City in this match are gonna be walking welcoming back one of their club legends Vincent company Who's the manager of Burnley and I think we're gonna see a lot of goals city haven't been their usual high-flying cells so far They're just fourth and XG created But they've still been able to thrash some of the lesser sides at home in five matches against teams currently in the bottom eight City have a mass 17 goals an average of 3.4 per match And that's just home matches. Sorry. I don't know if I clarified there But Burnley are currently 19th They've conceived they conceded three at home against man city in match week one and they've given up exactly three goals in each of their Last two away matches against teams currently in the top four Actually, I think there's a chance that city could cash this on their own and I I almost recommended Man City over three and a half goals at plus 158 and I don't hate it but I like the added security of taking the overall match to go over three and a half because Burnley has shown a little more attacking punch lately They've scored in each of their last three away matches including twice that Aston Villa and Bill has been one of the best home teams in the league this season and City have actually given up at least one goal in each Their last nine home matches including one to Bournemouth and two to Crystal Palace. So Yeah, those those sides are somewhat similar Burnley, so All in all, I think we're gonna see goals and even though I don't mind city over three and a half at plus 158 I'm gonna play it a little safer and take The match overall to go over three and a half at minus 106 now We had talked earlier on about city and their struggles relative struggles this year Based on looking at the recent scores. It looks like they've turned that around Is that reflected in the XG data as well? Does it seem like they've kind of figured out whatever led to that, you know, November December kind of lull? Yeah, it does This is kind of the time of year where city start to do this every year anyway And we saw something similar last year when they chased down Arsenal in the league but They're getting Kevin de Bruyne back. He came in for their match at Newcastle played 20 minutes that had a goal and an assist so And that was that Newcastle. It's a really tough place to play. So he's a huge piece for them Erling Holland's been out for a few weeks. He should be back soon as well So they're getting healthier and honestly Probably were just underperforming the first few months anyway, I don't know if that was just a lull from Coming off the amazing high of their trouble last year or if it was just random variants or what but They definitely are starting to look like the man city that we've seen the last few years Okay So Austin is on Liverpool minus 160 on the money line is they take on Chelsea And then the man city and Burnley match should go over three and a half goals Which is minus one of six right now at Fan Duel sportsbook That is Austin Cass as mentioned make sure you find him on Twitter at Austin Cass You can find his work over at Fan Duel research as well where he is a senior editor Austin appreciate the time as always Enjoy a kind of free weekend to do as you please and we'll talk to you once again next week for match week 23 Sounds good. Thank you, Jim. Alrighty again find Austin on Twitter at Austin Cass We'll get it back on here next week in the time between Super Bowl and the conference championships to talk more EPL then That is all that we have here for today and this week on covering the spread big Thank you once again to JJ's act recent our first guest for swinging by talking some props find JJ on Twitter at late round QB The late round calm and the late round fantasy football podcast I am on Twitter at Jim's honest You can find me on threads at Jim dots on us and you can find fan dual research on Twitter at fan dual research Make sure you subscribe to the podcast to get notifications as these shows go live each and every day I'll be going up on Monday with my first look at Super Bowl 58 outlining where my numbers show value based on The opening spread and total at fan dual sportsbook. Have a fantastic weekend. Enjoy all the fun conference Championship action. We'll talk to you once again next week. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network