 All right, everybody welcome back to round two. We'll see how this one goes So this is our second stream because the first stream now we've lost electricity So it's kind of hard to do that if you don't have internet service. So let's just jump right in again to Same thing we're talking about this morning. So there was a question that was pretty well from trad 6166 Which asked look if there's a everything goes along with the four-year cycle How does everything get affected especially for this upcoming or pending recession? And again, we talked about this but it is worth to note that this is from actually a Valuetainment that did a great video on the prospects of a incoming recession And it's amazing to me because like everybody in the crypto space seems like we're all pretty much saying that yes It's gonna happen, but we take a look at some sources from the New York Fed and we take a look at the Fed staff They're like no, there's no recession that's going to happen the yield curve say yes 61% Economists are 50-50 consumers. That's us. We're pretty sure it's gonna happen about 69% The banks Goldman Sachs Bank of America like no, it's not gonna happen. Of course the CEOs are pretty high 84% and why probably because they have some insider information that we are not privy to Imagine that a CEO only what's going on with their company? And of course we take a look at the yield curve itself a yield curve is supposed to look like this These are treasuries. These are notes. These are bonds and depending on the length This is how it's usually been for forever. You've got a One-month treasury yield curve at zero point one five This is back in 2009 if you went three months you get a whopping zero point one eight zero point two eight And then on unless you go like for the high ones thirty years is four point three eight percent That's what usually would happen And this is how it's supposed to look as time goes as just along a time on a continuum But of course when we started getting to recession then people have insider information big people CEOs Institutions anybody who has an insider information starts to figure out like hey, there's a lot of things going on I'm gonna take my money out of the stock market out of the risky equities Put it into something safe And then when they start to do that then of course there's a big run and we get a Inversion because people are loading up on 30 years at three point eight four percent or whatever actually is today a Twenty year at five percent. That's crazy. That is essentially risk-free money from the US government That's what it's supposed to look like so again When they were talking about here what they said they have the yield curve at 61 percent every time we have we Invert the yield or the yield curve There's an inversion and then it un-inverts and then we get into a recession This has happened every single time except for once and this has happened in the 70s this happened in 79 the yield Inverts un-inverts we get in this little gray area. That's a recession again happened again 81 the Volcker days Inverts un-inverts we get a recession then over here happened in 89 It's a inverts un-inverts and we get a recession come over here to 2000s comm era inverts un-inverts recession and you get to see it happens again and again And it's gonna happen again because we have Inverted and now we are on the un-inversion. We haven't really made up that point the only time this hasn't happened again Was back in the 60s. So congratulations people in the 60s You dodged a bullet for this one time But you couldn't do the second time back in 69 the 70 of course when the rates were a little bit crazy So that just gives us context into what's happening. So what I did was I took a look at well How would that look as far as like when we have a Dip or when we have a pause and a pivot to a recession and how long that takes and what would that look like if We actually have a recession which I believe we are gonna have a recession into the Bitcoin having I thought it was gonna be Q1 2024 looks like I am incorrect. So I Recorded I pre-recorded this video because when I try to do it's just live it's in like 30 minutes This one I've knocked down to under 13 minutes So let's just take a listen and then we'll come back and I'll do a Q&A because I'm sure We're going to have quite a bit of questions. So let's just take a listen Acro environment continues to deteriorate the question we have to ask ourselves is what does this mean for potentially a recession? Whether it be a hard landing or a soft landing and how does that correspond as we move into the four-year cycle and into the next Bitcoin having which should be in April 2024 and beyond that. So to help give us a little bit of a context about what's going on There was a great interview. This is Jeremy Siegel. He's a professor at Wharton School of Business And we're gonna talk about is the question was Bonds or stocks and assets for the long term because when we talk about this I would assume he'd be talking about bonds and how great they are But what he says was pretty surprising. Just take a listen a Becky stocks in the long run And I've done all that long run data our excellent long-term hedges You're planning a 10-year portfolio of 15 20-year retirement portfolio stocks do Beautifully against inflation bonds do not So, you know, yes, I think inflation is going down right now But when we look ahead at the deficits and all the rest could there be another inflationary episode and then What do I want to hold? Do I want to hold real assets or do I want to hold paper assets? Exactly. Do I want to hold paper assets or do I want to hold real assets when he's talking about equities? He's saying those are essentially real assets now here on the channel. I'm a little bit biased I would think that Bitcoin would be more of a real asset as far as crypto digital assets But of course, that's just me talking with my biases now the next piece It's only about a minute long the question gets asked. Well, what about this upcoming recession? How would you play this because wouldn't be safer to do a little bit or get out of equities and those assets because they're a riskier play and What he says makes a ton of sense for me maybe for you just take a listen If we have a recession, yeah, I think stock prices will go down But one thing has always been true. They go down too much in recessions They prove to be unbelievable buying on Opportunities people get really scared and then once that and listen we've gotten out of every recession last 200 years We'll get out of the next one and then we see soaring you're planning a 10-year portfolio I wouldn't worry about a recession if you're a timer and you think there's gonna be a recession Yeah, I'd wait, but you have to decide what what are you gonna play that game or not? You know how hard it is to play that game Professor Siegel is definitely speaking my language. You know how hard it is to time all those things now Some people think that they can they can do it and that's fine But you know moving forward, you know, what do you really want to hold on to you want to hold on to? The paper or you want to hold on to assets? And I think there's any there's a harder asset out there than bitcoins that leaves us to the next question Which would take a look at What trad 6166 asked and try to ask a very good question So it looks like we will be in a recession next year No way the four-year cycle will be of any significance and it might just discourage prevent people from investing in crypto next year Then we got away eight years for another bull market, which is anywhere close to last crypto would die if that happens And to answer this question and to do a real deep dive into things and we want to take a look at of course Not just the yield curve and of course the pivot but also the pauses and how long it takes from a pause of the Fed rate to a recession to the pivot To a recession and everything in between so we're gonna take a look at four different time periods from the Early 90s all the way into present and take a look at these things now before we get into that I want to thank today's sponsor, which would be masterworks and really just comes down to a portfolio balance Now if you don't know masterworks, it is investing in the fractional life shares of art pieces now Us as mere mortals we can't buy a brown painting for four point six million dollars But we can buy fractional life shares of this piece and of course it is registered with the SEC because they are Securities now me personally again about balancing a portfolio. This is mine in 2023 Roughly 30% or a third is into crypto. I have stuff in IRA also some stocks Such a cash Stables degen place and only 1% is in masterworks because I believe that art could be a great balance And of course 30 and 10% into real estate into land. So what I've done personally This is back in 2021. I purchased a Banksy and a basket not the whole thing I'm not a baller like that to be crazy and I thought about it this way back then so I wanted to diversify Why was it because it outpace the S&P 500 as far as art goes for by 131% from 95 to 2021 it showed less correlation of the markets and that's pretty good and it's demonstrated being a store of wealth during inflationary periods Before you laugh think about this. How does your portfolio do in 2022 as far as crypto? Well, I can tell you right now for art pieces One for Mandy Warhol sold for 195 million Paul Allen for his collection sold for 1.5 billion and then Christie's one that does all the different offerings and sales Sold 8.4 billion and it was a record year for the art market in probably one of the worst years that we've had in quite some time Why is that it's because people who love art want to invest into art and they want to own it Here's the story. This is that one of the Banksy paintings It was shredded and the original price was 1.4 million for just the base painting or just the base artwork Well after it was shredded then people wanted it more they fumbled in and it was sold for 25.4 million Don't have me explain it. That's the art world. So here's the track record for masterworks Over the last three to ten years. They've exited over 11 artworks now It's actually 16 collection has grown over two and 25 paintings and here's the year-over-year annualized results 32 percent 39 percent All the way at 35 percent and then actually they just send me this yesterday their paintings of a Leia was 325 percent annualized Warhol 4.1 17.6 7 7.3 and so on and so forth So I know this works I've personally invested into it and also somebody who is also a listener a subscriber to digital asset news Wrote me an email and say yeah, I actually invested in in 2021 It was sold in late 2022 and there was a 70 percent gain annualized of 35 percent. So yes, it actually does work So does that mean that you will get 70 percent or 35 percent annualized returns? No, it does not this is an investment every investment carries a certain degree of risk and of course Past performance does not equate to future gains now. Just so you know asset center management's right now They have 344 artworks close to a billion dollars or 882 million and 811,000 members again It's registered with the SEC So because it is a security and you can read all the filings there if you are interested in this There's a link in the description looks just like this You put your information in as far as the email and someone will call you and talk to you about if this is something for you I have to say that this is not for everybody But this is just what I've done and maybe it could be something for you now Let's take a look at those pieces So we're gonna take a look these four different time frames for the actual Recessions and the first thing I I was kind of astounded by was first. We're taking a look at the federal funds target, right? I'm not a TA person, but it just looks like we just are performing lower highs and you can see all the way back into Almost to before 1980 in the Volcker days You know, we had a pretty high federal funds target rate and then of course in the 90s went down a little bit But it was quite a pump all the way into 2020 of course now we've reversed that and now we are on that train of Massive Fed funds rate hikes So the question then is for the very first one back in the 1990s How much time between the time that we paused as they were Increasing those federal funds rate when they pause or stop raising the rates To a recession not a pivot. This is time they paused It took one year and four months they paused on February to 89 and then the recession started in 30th of June 1990 so that was a pause to a recession next question is what about a pivot to a recession Pivot to recession for the 1990 or 89 when it started it was a year So you had roughly a year and four months and it took a year for the time It actually pivoted and from that time from the pivot to a recession was 30th of June 1990 And then the market this blue line right here Is the s&p 500 and from that time point in 1990 of June To 11th of october 1990 that was the bottom of the s&p 500 the stock market The recession still went on for another five months. So I need you to remember this It took roughly eight and a half nine months or so For the total recession of this time period and what it means is is that the market will recover Faster than the actual economy and that's an important factor when we start to take a look at the four-year cycles Next one in the second piece in the late 2000s the dot-com era We can see that from the time that we had a pause To recession again the federal funds rate. They paused it. They didn't raise anything. It took 10 months quite a bit of time and then when they pivoted To a recession it took only two months again Two months from the beginning of the recession The recession of the market bottom was six months And then the market recovered pretty well matter of fact and then the recession was over and two months later So again the market the stock market recovers first and then the actual economy recovers How about this one? This was uh back in the great recession Now this one took quite a long time the pause to recession was 18 months. That's a long time from when they stopped raising rates and they just paused To when the actual recession is so we had 18 months 10 months and a year and four months somewhere around there Between a pause to a recession for the last three Data pieces that we took a look at now from a pivot In this time frame to a recession It was very fast Uh, we were talking about two and a half months very quickly and the bottom dropped out And this was a brutal one the recession to the market bottom took 15 months But as bad as this was The economy still took three more months to recover even the market Recovered first. So you had 15 months Some months before and now here we are at three months And of course it went up and everything was looking pretty good for quite some time also during this time frame I want you to note that we had the time frame of low to no rates And we had an economic surplus and it was quite a great time And it was quite a boom for the economy and we're going to see that again in this point In the last one, of course was the uh, Surveys of sickness And of course from the time from the pause to a recession quite a long time one year and one month That's a big chunk of time And from there from a pivot to a recession didn't take too long six months So we had a year and a month. We had 10 months. We had 18 months It's quite a bit of time between a pause to a recession But if you average those out we can say about a year year and two months and some change somewhere around there But for this piece from a pivot to a recession It took six months Recession of the market bottom only a month and then to actually recover because the money printer went on like crazy Uh took less than a month and then we were off the races and again We had rates extremely low for quite some time until we hit into our Latest period, which is of course right here. So now that we can see that We are at that point Where we have actually the last rate hike was in july 26 And in september when they came back there was a pause And we are paused all the way up until this is the middle of october when i'm recording this video of 2023 so that would mean We would get back to the original question from trapp looks like we'll be in a recession next year No way the fire for your cycle behind significance. It's going to take eight full years We'll just wait because let's take a look at that. Let's take a look at the data So we are right now in october. So we paused again We paused this time frame around 27 july. That was the first point. Of course, there was no, uh FOMC meeting on august. So sept september will be the pause So let's just take july for this time frame and say, okay So a pause to recession like we talked about could be year and four months could be 10 months Could be 18 months like we just took a look at let's just keep the round numbers Just say a year might be a little bit less might be a little bit more. Let's just say a year So from july 2023 to july 2024 That is a time when we are on our way To a recession and let's just say that july or august or so of 2024 the recession would start And i want you to notice one thing that in 2024 Before we hit a recession because i personally think we're going to hit a recession in q1 But the data says that we could be somewhere else If that's the case Then we won't have a recession and we'll have a bitcoin having an april sometime middle of april of 2024 And then we'll hit a recession. We've never had this before. Is this a bad thing? Is this awful? No, it's a natural cycle But let's just say That we get a recession in in a july early august How long does A recession usually last well, we've shown this quite some times Of statistic the average recession will last 10 months. That's going from 2020 Taking a look also the 80s the 90s 2001s the 50s the 40s And of course the long one the great recession 18 months But even recently 2001 it was eight months 1991 was eight months. Let's just say 10 months So that would take us from a july or august 2024 recession Where we go all the way through the recession would be potentially done again Just using numbers To may of 2025 and in 2025 that we take a look at the four-year cycles. What does that mean? Well, we're in the reset year right now in 2023 2024 is a halving and so far after every halving We've had a massive all-time high and then a monstrous dip and a reset Followed by another halving So that is what answer Trad 6166 question, but there is one more caveat, which is this I still think we'll have more time and why is that it's because just like we talked about Even though we're in recession The economy is not the market and the market is not the economy. There are two different entities So we take a look at the first one again the recession the market bottom It was three and a half months even though the even though the recession lasted totally for eight months Same thing in the second part in the early 2000s It was six months and then the market recovered Took some not some all times but did pretty well and it was two months till the recession ended Then again in the great recession and we see just how massive this was It took 15 months quite a long time But then it took three more months for the economy to recover I'm hoping we'll see what actually happens as I move into the next one. So That hopefully would answer the question. I personally believe That there is a recession coming. I don't know if it's a hard line. No one's soft landing, but Just like professor seagull talked about it's all about where you want to be and do you want to be in paper Do you want to be in hard assets or do you want to time everything? That's it for today. So look like today's video give a thumbs up consider subscribing Yeah, everything we talk about is time sensitive. So That would take care of the little piece that we just talked about so yeah I had to uh pre-record that one because there was so much data And I wanted to make sure that the editing was done right that uh, I didn't want to You know blow it and uh go over 30 minutes like when I was practicing So hopefully that took a lot less time But that's it for the video section if you like today's video thumbs up subscribe all the good stuff now