 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network With the college football regular season all wrapped up It is time to change things up on Wednesdays and we're talking to NBA NHL for today with Tom Vecchio NBA in season tournament semi-finals coming up in Las Vegas on Thursday We're gonna break down those break down futures markets there and also talk about Wednesday's NHL slate right here today This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here by Tom Vecchio Check him out on Twitter at Tom underscore Vecchio one You of course know him with his prime time Tom episodes on the same feed one coming up later on today for a thriller between the Steelers and the Patriots Tom. How are you doing on this fine Wednesday? I'm doing good Yeah, we're excited to talk some NBA and NHL now as Opposed to waiting for that amazing Thursday night football game. I'll be talking about later So get the good stuff or just say the bad stuff now and get the good stuff later, but I'm ready to go I did take the over in that game. I'm not gonna lie I've got it as a pretty good value. What could possibly go wrong, right? It's in part because I don't view there as being a difference between Kenny Pickett and Mitchell Trabisky, which might be very stupid But I guess we'll see we'll find out when things happen on Thursday looking forward to hearing your breakdown of that game later on yeah, I'm not expecting a whole lot of points if we saw a Carbon copy of the Pats game from last week. I wouldn't be too surprised at all I wouldn't be surprised if we see 15 punts in that game But you know, we will wait and see the Vecchio special of both teams punts on the first drive It's in play baby unless Bailey Zappi turns it over that could ruin you So just letting you know now their paths to that bet's not hitting for the first time in a while We're talking about the NBA East in season tournament first Talk about the futures market MVP market and then Thursday's semifinals and then we'll dive into Wednesday's NHL action If you want to check out the NHL stuff first check out the timestamps Those are in the episode description over on Fando research and on Spotify and Apple podcasts as well A reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the covering the spread podcast to get that show the prime time Tom show as it goes live later on today We'll also talk back with us on Friday to talk NFL props JJ Zacharyson is out for this week Austin cast fresh off a four-in-a-week and EPL back with us Friday as well And of course, Dr. Ed Fang tomorrow talk NFL week number 14 all right here in this exact same feed You can find these shows on the Fandall YouTube page and Fandall TV plus as well Score early this NFL season with Fandall America's number one sports book right now new customers Gale $150 and bonus bets with any winning $5 moneyline bet. 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Fandall calm gambling problem Call 1-800 gambler or visit Fandall comm slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania Illinois Kentucky, Tennessee and Virginia call 1-800 next step or text next up to 5334 2 in Arizona 1-888-79-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat Connecticut 1-800-9 with it in Indiana 1-800-522-4700 or visit KS gambling health comm in Kansas 1-877-770 stop in Louisiana Visit mdgambling health.org in Maryland 1-800 gambler net in West Virginia 1-800-522-4700 in Wyoming. Hope is here visit gambling helpline MA.org or call 1-800-327-5050 for 247 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8 Hope and Y or text Hope and Y in New York Let's dig in now to the NBA in-season tournament time where last night we saw the quarter finals and we now have 14s left for the semis Coming up on Thursday. We'll talk about this game specifically in just one second But as of right now the bucks are the favorites at plus 165 to win it all Any value for you in the in-season tournament winner market right now? So the market has obviously changed dramatically since just the other day I briefly mentioned when I was on the radio on Monday mornings on sports grid I briefly mentioned taking the Pacers at plus 1700 since they were the longest odds And if they come away with the win you're holding the ticket now There's just more of like a strategy suggestion rather than actual pick and obviously there's I would take there's no more value left in the outright winner if We can drop down to that next menu for the in-season tournament MVP I think this is how we actually correlate These two things because if you look at the bucks there plus 165, right? Yeah, but if the bucks win what has to happen It's probably a tentacumpo or Lillard Being the driving force of them winning Well, when we're looking at this market instead of plus 165 if they actually win Why is that it's probably because a tentacumpo has a big game So when you take Giannis at plus 430 for an MVP We're actually getting their championship on the same thing can be said about you like the Lakers to win You're getting Anthony Davis at a much longer number like this is how I want to correlate the market So the actual team winning odds, I think there's no value left there But if we look at the MVP odds That's where the value can be derived when you basically say okay I like the Lakers to win the bronze numbers fine But Anthony Davis if you if he goes for 35 and 15 in one of these games that pushes them to the championship I don't think anyone's gonna be surprised especially going up against the Pelicans and if they take on the box Of course, we're gonna see big performances So might as well just take a shot on the MVP for with a player from the team that you like to win So if you add up Damian Lillard's implied odds at plus 380 and Giannis and tentacumpo's at plus 430 That's about 39% implied odds that the bucks win it all one of those guys wins MVP The bucks implied odds at plus 165 are 38% so it does actually mesh up pretty well Do you have a lean between Lillard and on tentacumpo does the threat of Lillard Worry you with the Giannis market or how you view in that one? I would simply just take the longer number between the two of the team So if I would take Davis simply because he's a little bit longer than LeBron I would take a tentacumpo simply just because he's a little bit longer than date and then Lillard So just keep things as simple as possible Listen if Lillard goes for 40 points and hits six threes, right? It is what it is But this is just about taking the best number available Okay So into the tentacumpo plus 430 to win MVP right now at Fandall sportsbook That's where Tom seems like he's leaning but then also some interest in Anthony Davis a plus 750 as opposed to taking the Lakers Outright at plus 230 LeBron's number is plus 430 right now Tyrese Albert is plus 450 of the Pacers win. It's gonna be Halliburton. They're plus 440 So you're taking Halliburton If you if you think that the Pacers do want to winning the whole thing now We do have the two semi-finals coming up on Thursday markets for those games are up right now at Fandall sportsbook The first one is going to be I love their staggering these the first game starts at five Eastern And then the second one is at nine Eastern So you can actually watch it at the end of the work day Pacers are four and a point dogs into bucks And then the second one Lakers slim favorites against the Pelicans at minus one and a half Looking at those two games Tom any value for you within those two games specifically from the traditional markets as of now, I think it's it's 254 and a half over under is massive. It's one of the higher ones. We've seen this year Both teams are in the top five league when it comes off into pace Pacers number one They're playing absolutely no defense. They're 16 in three to the over this season, which is why it's so high However, you know, will we see some of a playoff type environment as we saw With the Celtics and and the Pacers are we gonna see that? So I think there's a chance to take the under and then potentially live bed and over Hopefully find a bit of a middle if you could so my initial lean would be under 254 So I just think that's a little bit too high and then live bed and over I do have a few angles when it comes to the player props for that first game There's no player props listed for the second game as of yet. So for bucks Pacers Yanis and again, I already mentioned for the MVP is this kind of like the same trend of going under for Yanis I think he's gonna have a big game his PR a bat points rebounds This is combined is sitting at 50 and a half, which is minus 111 and that's obviously massive Massive number. That's where he should be. That's where Yoko cheese. That's where Luca is all these great players There's obviously a circumstance where he goes 25 10 and 10 right which is something I've discussed before about Yoko when his triple double odds Which are back on that the initial page for the game lines. His triple double odds are plus 1200 So again, if I'm under this assumption that Yanis can win MVP He can hit a triple double. Why not find the most value where Going for 25 10 and 10 is 45 He hits the triple double but doesn't hit the PR a and again if I'm assuming the under will be hitting as I said It's a lean under 254 and a half He may not need to go for 50 points or whatever it might be So if I'm leaning towards the under it may be a sloppy game. He's not gonna push the 40 I think it's gonna be more of a defensive game more rebounds. So I think Yanis triple double is actually my favorite bet Yeah, that is plus 1100 right now at the end of a sportsbook And that's the one that's posted right now is Yanis So those will be posted later on during the day for the second game for the Pelicans Lakers Like you said no props up yet But any players specifically think are in a good match up here Tom any guys you want to check once once props are posted for that one Yeah, that's gonna be Austin Reeves for the Lakers. He's their sixth man. He comes off the bench Three-point shooter which we love to see he's actually taking more three-pointers per game Compared to last year he's shooting them a little bit less effectively. He's a little bit inefficient this year But his volume is still there. He's still taking six seven eight three-pointers per game So the volumes up the efficiency is down The pelicans during the bottom-ten elite for me three-pointers lap per game from their opponents So if he comes off that bench Hopefully facing the second unit for the pelicans he can really get those threes going So it's probably be two and a half there might be a little bit of juice on the over like minus Minus 140 over two and a half and he's fine somewhere around there So I would say that's probably the best spot to attack LeBron's odds are probably be juiced up The numbers gonna be do same thing with Anthony Davis Zion Williams and all these players So I'd probably go for a secondary option where we can find a little bit of value Okay, so check out Reeves once those are up before the late game on Thursday But should be a fun close up the NC turn in season tournament pretty surprised at how well this has gone over It's been a lot of fun to track it so far Let's shift focus now and talk about some NHL So we have four games for tonight's helmet two of those are nationally televised games that is on TNT We got stars at Panthers and hurricanes at Oilers look at those two games specifically and the traditional market bets You like across those two specifically. Yes, that would be stars under six and a half and Keynes over six and a half And there's a little bit juice on on both of those bets. I think it's fine Stars Panthers these are two very good defensive teams And what I like to look at for Not just you know these games But I always look like to look at the season overall for these teams and then like the last two weeks How they've been playing to look at you know different sample sizes Are they trending up or trending down and the stars and the Panthers both teams are solid on defense They are both in the top 10 league for the fewish shot attempts allowed over the last two weeks So this may not be a high event hockey game despite you're having some good off to the players I think this is gonna be trending towards an under some defense both very solid goaltenders Sergei Bobrowski for the Panthers and Jay Gonjer for the stars so It could be a tense game in terms of excitement just because it probably should be within one goal and that means I'm probably Trending towards the under and a low event hockey game Yeah, that's for the stars and Panthers that's that total six and a half minus one thirty right now I'm the under for that when you mentioned the over for hurricanes and Oilers That is over six and a half minus one thirty what leads you towards the over in that game Well, both teams over the last two weeks They're in the top seven of the league when it comes to shot attempts created So these two teams love to push the pace obviously economy David on one side Lee and dry side Oh, they have a ton of offense They started off the year horribly they changed coaches They're on a four game winning streak and they really are seeming to put things together Just a little bit game by game the Keynes over whatever it's this season last season however many years in the past They are consistently number one or number two in the league when it comes to shot attempts created They are constantly putting you know their their foot on the gas when it comes to offense whether they're up there down It doesn't matter they're taking over 70 shot attempts per 60 minutes in 5v5 situations, which is unbelievable so when we have And granted the Oilers have been pretty terrible on defense this year Which is why they have struggled out of the gate So we have these two and then obviously the just the offensive skill with David and dry side all in all these players There's no reasonable assumption or no safe way to take the under just based on the events that these two teams can create on offense So it should be a very wide open game like this is basically the elite matchup that the NHL wants on prime time So you're saying I should tune in right okay? All right that game is at 940 Eastern over six and a half again minus 130 for Hurricanes Oilers And then under six and a half is minus 130 for these stars in the Panthers any player props you like across those two games Tom For it would be Sebastian Ajo for the Carolina Hurricanes. He's their center Over two and a half shots. It's only sitting at minus 122, which I think is a pretty reasonable line He's the top line center for the Keynes on the top power play We look back at his game log and he is consistently taking three four five six shots on goal in some of these games He leads the team in shots. He's averaging over three shots on goal per game So if I'm expecting the over and like as I said like a high event hockey game back and forth It correlates with one of their best players or their best player actually Leading the way on offense. So Ajo over two and a half minus 122 I think is a superb line for tonight's game. I mean David's line dries out his line They're fine if you just want to take them because you want to have the best player It is what it is, but I think the value lies with Ajo tonight that has shortened to minus 125 That's still okay by you. Yeah, okay Perfect. So minus 125 on Ajo over two and a half shots at Fandall sports book in that late game between the Hurricanes and the Oilers There are two other games on Tafford tonight though, Tom So looking at those two games We got the penguins in the lightning and the golden nights against the blues Anything stand out to you whether we play our props or traditional markets in those two games It would be from the yes to from that game Their money line was it minus 150 now minus 156 minus 160 minus 160. Okay, but if you look at their Regulation line the three-way money line. That's I think it was a plus 100 about 10 minutes ago 15 minutes ago What is it now some action on the nights? They're minus 105 now Okay, so that's that's totally fine And this is what I was like to look at like the differential between their money line and their three-way money line Which I think is pretty substantial minus 160 to minus 105. I think is a sizable gap So they just played these two teams just played two nights ago To one win in favor of the blues Frankly the the blues are a good team. They're not great the golden nights are a great team So I'm expecting a bounce back game combined with what I am The argument that I'm making is the value that the three-way money line brings ahead of the money line So I wouldn't go to the money line. I think it's they have to win in regulation They're a good team that they're going to bounce back and I think the blues are overperforming just a little bit this season So if I'm expecting regression from the blues It's Vegas probably getting a little bit of revenge after kind of an ugly lost the other night Okay So that is minus 105 in the 60 minute money line the three-way one on there minus 105 for the golden nights taking on the blues You mentioned there was another one in that game. Which one is that? It's me Mark Stone for Vegas over two and a half shots at plus 140. I Just played against the blues the other night He had no shots on goal and this is a player that is routinely taking two or three shots at night He's seeing power play time and again if I'm expecting Vegas to bounce back It's gonna be because their top players are performing as like I said I look at teams whether it's the entire season or whether it's over two weeks sample size and for the entire season The blues are allowing 65 shot attempts per 60 minutes in five and five situations in over the last two weeks That's 64 so they are on pace with allowing a ton of shot attempts, but they're not allowing a ton of goals So like as I've talked about last year before like when we looked at like a funnel if you allow a lot of shot attempts That's obviously gonna break at a certain point and the goals are gonna start to come So I think the blues are overperforming and they're running way too many shot attempts That means Vegas is due for like a rise and the blues are due for a bit of a decline So it converges those two markets find the best way to exploit that market outside of the freeway money line in minus 105 Mark Stone over two and a half shots plus 132 right now a fan dual sportsbook I said it was plus 140 when I looked at it just so it's a good and bad thing It's like oh people are on the same things you are on they're betting them and shortening the odds But that means we're also getting worse odds, so it's a good thing and a bad thing Right, so I would play it down to plus 125 as the lowest So still some value there, but less of there was before as always shop around Try to identify the best market you can but plus 132 for Mark Stone over two and a half shots Tom have played that two plus 125 for that one. Alrighty Tom. That was fun Getting to talk some NBA NHL with you once again We'll get to do more of this once we get out of NFL season the grind of that and looking forward to that So looking forward to hearing your breakdown the Steelers and Patriots later on appreciate the time as always We'll talk to you once again Friday. Yep doing some player props for Dan Fallon Friday, of course I'll be back on Saturday morning for Sunday night football, which will be an awesome game. Yeah, that's that's Cowboys Eagles I'm torn about whether that's actually better than Steelers Patriots, but I'll I'll think on it I'll get back to you by Friday. So when we talk Friday, I'll let you know if I decide which one actually it's after the Thursday game But we'll let you I'll let you know later on that is Tom Vecchio checking out on Twitter at Tom underscore Vecchio one I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis can find me on threads at Jim dot Sonnis and on Fandall research You can find Fandall research on Twitter at Fandall research once again subscribe to the covering the spread podcast feed to get the prime time Tom breakdown of Patriots and Steelers later on today to break down that game And we're back once again tomorrow with dr. Ed Feng to break that NFL week 14 overall This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network