 All right, welcome into another edition of the fan duel hurry up I'm Joe Ranieri joined by Jim Sonnis of number fire and today We're gonna take a look at something Well has been in the news quite a lot lately that being the NFL and win totals and Jim Before we dive into a few teams here. Tell me my friend am I crazy? This is of the top 40 free agents since the new year opened here. There's only like three or four guys left It's been unbelievable the amount of transactions. We've seen thus far in the last week week and a half Yeah, it's not even just the free agents But there have been significant trades too, especially if you're in an industry like us where you're talking a lot of fantasy football Like seeing guys like to define digs Deandre Hopkins and David Johnson all on the move It's been a lot to talk about so thankfully we've had the NFL here to discuss why everything else is on pause That's been a nice little break for sure But eventually things are gonna dry up like you said not a lot of free agents left to sign So hopefully they will find another way to keep the conversation going for the next couple of months All right, so let's talk some win totals here and we'll start at the top. How about the defending champs? Why don't we look at the Kansas City chiefs looking at an 11 and a half win total At almost even money at this point with our friends at fan duel What are your thoughts on Kansas City making it to a double digits how we say this win total in this season? Yeah, their number is 11 and a half right now You can get plus 105 on the under and there aren't a lot of situations in betting NFL win totals Where you will get plus money on a team winning with a win total 11 and a half That just doesn't happen all that often so basically what you need in order to hit the over here is Kind of an outlier and so I'm gonna go with the under here on the chiefs at 11 and a half because it is plus 105 Just because this situation seems too good to pass up the NFL season There are a lot of things that can happen teams can just underperform They can have a bad stretch of games. They can have injuries, etc. Etc. So getting a team under at 11 and a half I think is pretty attractive and it's also not exactly the easiest division either the Denver Broncos have made a lot of games on Defense the Las Vegas Raiders have a couple of first-round picks the Chargers In flux with their quarterback situation right now But at least they have a baseline with Tarad Taylor there and the rest of that team especially the defense is loaded So the chiefs are an awesome team I expect Patrick Mahomes to continue to be a dominant force in this league for a very long time But getting them at plus 105 on the under at 11 and a half wins is too good to pass up So I'm gonna go under here even though I do like the chiefs overall for the 2020 season. Yeah It's all about that that Super Bowl curse We've heard about so many times before Rams just a couple of years ago How does Andy Reid and the chiefs react? It's gonna be a lot of fun to watch how that division plays out, but they played a team of course in the Super Bowl They beat the San Francisco 49ers their win total is at 10 and a half another tough division What do you think about the 49ers win total? Yeah, the division thought line here is relevant for the 49ers, which is why I want the under on them as well They are at 10 and a half the under is plus 110 so getting some some good juice there as well And I think that the reason that I want to go against the 49ers here Is it's hard to bank on a defense being an outlier for two consecutive seasons? And that's exactly what the 49ers were last year They were second overall in adjusted defense based on number fires metrics and second against the pass now You go an additional year into Richard Sherman's career and potentially we could see some fall off there at some point hasn't happened yet But it could happen at some point and they traded away de Forest Buckner And de Forest Buckner was one of the key forces on that elite level Defensive line that does give them an additional first-round pick in that trade with the Colts But after those two first-round picks the 49ers do not pick again until the fifth round So a long drop off there in the draft still not a ton of draft capital there despite getting that first four to four is Buckner They've also lost to manual Sanders on offense They're gonna have to use one of those first-round picks to address the wide receiver course What you see here with the 49ers is yeah an elite defense and a team that overcame a lot of injuries on the offensive line last year That means that they're probably still gonna be very good for next year But Arizona getting better the Rams still a good team despite a lot of losses there and Seattle It's always lurking so I think this division is gonna be good once again next year Especially if Arizona does make the gains they're projected to make based on what they've done this offseason So under 10 and a half I think that's pretty realistic here a plus 110 for the 49ers if that defense takes any step back We could see them hit this under pretty easily So you know they win 10 wins either they get 10 wins we get the under here So I think I'll definitely take it and bet against both the teams that were in the Super Bowl last year Yeah, it really I they're gonna go if Jimmy Garoppolo can take that next step if he is if he can take that next step That of course many people thought he could It'll be interesting to see how it plays out. But as Jimmy goes. I think that team will go Interesting enough here Jim. There was a lot of rumors about Tom Brady and the 49ers But it looks like he settled on the Tampa Bay box and when we look at that win total It's hovering around nine right now. What are your thoughts on Tom Brady's new team the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? You know, we've actually already seen this number rise from when things open if annual sports book They just opened last week. They were eight and a half There was a lot of juice on the over but now it has gone up to nine the juices now minus 115 I do still like the over there. I was talking to Kevin Cole of pro football focus last week And he said that by their numbers Tom Brady is worth about a win above replacement over Jamis Winston so an additional win there for the Patriots roughly two points against the spread per game with Brady over Jamis And that's a good thing for sure But this is also a good team outside of the quarterback because they've got Mike Evans and Chris Godwin And they also have a better defense than perception last year based on number of fires metrics This Tampa Bay Bucs team ranked ranked fourth in overall defense They were seventh against the past and they were first against the rush by a pretty wide margin now There could be some changes on the defensive line given they have a couple of guys who are free agents But they will be bringing Shaq Barrett back Jason Pierre Paul is back as well a lot of athleticism at linebacker I don't know if this defense will keep up what it did last year, but it should still be a good defense That's a good thing when you have Tom Brady and the weapons that they have an office in addition To a pretty high end or a mid-level first round pick So this Tom Brady move does upgrade this Buccaneers team But I also think they're being uh being underrated for what they have elsewhere specifically on the defense So the over at nine years pretty attractive at minus 115 Yeah, Adamic and so still a free agent a big part of that number one defense against the run last year It'll be interesting Maybe takes a pay cut and comes back to be a part of that Todd Bowles defense A lot of intrigue there for sure now Tom Brady, of course not Resigning with his team the Patriots puts them in a very interesting position too coming out of the afc east a Tom Brady List Patriots team hovering at a wind total of nine. What are your thoughts with them, Jim? Yeah, we're going the opposite here We're going with the under on the Patriots with Tom Brady leaving town But it's not necessarily just because they are losing Tom Brady A lot of it is the same things we discussed for the 49ers where it's hard to bank on a defense being an outlier Two years in a row and the Patriots were actually a hair better than the 49ers based on our numbers over a number fire last year So further uh room to regress for them and they're bringing a lot of guys back So I would still expect them to be good But can they be an outlier which is what they were last year? And it's also hard to expect this offense to excel with Tom Brady being gone They could have Cam Newton. They could have Andy Dalton. Maybe James Winston comes to town Those are all possibilities, but that's probably going to be a downgrade from from Tom Brady and this team with Brady last year Ranked 19th in schedule adjusted passing offense They have not addressed the skill position guys on this team all that much so far this all season They will get to kill Harry healthy, which could be a good thing with a full all season for him as well But there are a lot of question marks on offense and there's also the possibility They decide to run this thing with Jared Sidderman Brian Hoyer And if they do that, I really really like the under on nine wins there for sure So There are too many question marks with this uh Patriots team from for me to go at the over here So I do want the under it's at minus 110. I think that uh with all the question marks on the Patriots offense Even outside of just the quarterback that is an advantageous number where it currently stands Buffalo will be better the Jets believe it or not will be better. Miami will be better It's going to be a tough division for the Patriots this year as well and speaking of a tough year boy, uh the Cincinnati Bengals well, they've got the number one pick and the number one pick We know Jim is a game changer for a lot of franchises. They have it this year the Bengals What are your thoughts on their win total going into the season? Yeah, I like the over here It's at five and a half minus 110 on the over for the Bengals and They were kind of due for regression anyway because they did decide to roll with Ryan Finley for part of last year And he was not really an NFL level quarterback and they get Jonah Williams back He was their first round pick last year should slot in at left tackle So two improvements there as they just regress and don't have Ryan Finley in the sample and Add Jonah Williams to the mix that is in addition to Joe burrow as well Also, we it's easy to forget but aj green missed the entirety of last year Aj green has now been franched a franchise tagged. He said that he will play under that tag for this year So you give Joe burrow Jonah Williams and three really quality wide receivers? I'd expect this offense to be pretty good. They've also made additions in free agency This is a Bengals team that never makes moves in free agency, but they have done so thus far DJ right reader and trey wanes coming over Probably overpaid for trey wins a little bit But still an upgrade of what they had last year and again They get Joe burrow and the 33rd overall pick in addition to burrow with the first pick in the second round So a lot of gains here for this Bengals team. We're getting A good number here at five and a half I think the Bengals should be better than that this year And I think that uh, Joe burrow will be a part of that But the other additions of aj green Jonah Williams and on defense are the main reasons that I'm drawn towards this number And of course a lot of people still wondering what is this coaching staff going to be like and can they take that Talent and have them take the next step So fascinating year ahead for the Cincinnati Bengals with the number one pick in the draft coming up next month And you know finally another team a lot of people thought we're just going to hit the reset button and Blow it all up and start from scratch But they go out there and spend an awful lot of money on a new quarterback named teddy bridge water Also at five and a half wins. What are your thoughts about the carolina panthers win total this year? Yeah, I've been seeing a lot of things you were referring to where people expect this panthers team to potentially tank For trevor lorence next year But if you look at the things that they have done so far this office is not just free agency It kind of goes counter to that they traded their guard trey turner And if they had traded trey turner for draft picks that would have been a signal that they may have been trying to tank For trevor, but instead they got a really good left tackle when he's healthy and Russell o'cune Back in return that is not a move you make if you are trying to tank because Russell o'cune He only played six games last year for the chargers But when he was healthy he played really well and that gives the panthers Good players at left tackle center and right tackle so that offensive line Not as bad as perception you bring in teddy bridge water teddy brings a pretty good floor to him question marks about the ceiling for sure But good skill players around him with Curtis samuel dj more and christian mccaffrey, obviously There is some talent on this offense And I think there's more talent here than he would expect for a team with their win total at five and a half I think that this is a good spot for them. They do still have some high-end picks as well so The ability to address some of the players they've lost on defense specifically james bradbury and lou keekley I think they're gonna make they can make some games I think that this number at five and a half is based around the The speculating that they may tank But their moves thus far this all season have not been the Those of a team that is tanking. So I want the over here on the panthers. It is minus 120 at five and a half So, uh, definitely not a uh, not an even money thing by any means But even at that number I still think that what we've seen so far from the panthers this all season Is a team that's not trying to actively lose games next year All right, I'm gonna throw one final curveball here for you speaking to the panthers bridge water in cam newton out Better chance of landing cam newton patriots or the redskins Based on the bookmakers right now. They're saying washington and I think that's really interesting with north turner Or with north turner, but uh with ron or vera being there. So it's definitely an interesting proposition I just want to see cam play. I don't care where he is I just want to see him play because cam newton went healthy Is one of the most fun to play fun to watch players in the entire league So I don't care where he goes. I just want to see him play joe. That's that's the one request I have here, but I think uh based on the way the bookmakers are seeing it Washington does seem to be the more likely destination Yeah, and I can't wait to see the fashion shows both before and after the games with cam newton It is always good jim son. It's number fire. Thank you very much for stopping by on joe and airy This has been another edition of the fan duel hurry up. Stop by and see us tomorrow. Be well