 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Yukon versus Purdue tonight in the men's college basketball national championship game We're gonna break things down today Let you know all the value you can find at Fandall sportsbook for this game by talking to both Riley Thomas and Aiden Cotter getting their read on this game in the markets at Fandall sports We can letting you know their favorite bets for tonight This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research. My name is Jim Sonis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here is mentioned by Riley Thomas and Aiden Cotter You can find both those guys over at Fandall research You can find Aiden on Twitter at Aiden Cotter FD and find Riley on Twitter at underscore Riley 8 Riley miss our things off of you because of course we're talking about the national championship game for tonight but also you're a Kentucky fan, so What what we thinking today with these John Calipari is off to Arkansas Yeah, I think it's it obviously was surprising You know anybody leaving Kentucky for Arkansas surprising, but it was a move that kind of had it happen And I think we saw the two growing apart the success hasn't been there You know myself being a Kentucky fan also speaking for the fan base is you know I think we were kind of getting tired of you know Just kind of disappointing every year. So I think it's a good move for both parties and I'm excited to see who Kentucky can get hopefully they're Going for a big name But it had to happen. It was unavoidable. Do you go to Kentucky message boards at all or do you avoid it? Oh Man A dark hole I went down to a couple years ago And kind of just stayed away from it since because there's just too much negativity man fans are I think as you guys know as well Kentucky fans are crazy So you're seeing some some crazy stuff on there You got a venture back there at least for like this week though like have some fun Like let yourself indulge a bit a little cheat day to check out the Kentucky message boards I think you've deserved that by this point. Yeah, I'm expecting a lot of celebrant on there for sure I'm not gonna Yeah, that's fair. Yeah Understandable we've also got Aiden Cotter as mentioned you can find Aiden on Twitter at Aiden Cotter FD Aiden pretty fun matchup lined up for tonight. You were out at the women's final for which sounds like it was a blast You had some fun out there. Oh, yeah, it was awesome. I mean that environment in Cleveland I don't know that was my second women's national championship game yesterday and the last one was like in 2012 so Just to see how far the game has come in the last 10 15 years just with the fans and just play on the court It was it was an electric environment I wish the championship would have been a little closer towards the end But I mean it was still it was so cool. Did you have a rooting interest for the final? I know you had a pageback or shirt on for the for the Friday game Which I appreciate it because shout out Minnesota, but like any rooting interest for you for the final Not really. I was really just rooting for a good game I had futures on South Carolina and Iowa from back in December and so I was kind of in a nice spot either way So it was nice people just step back and enjoy the game I guess I did get to still be happy because Tessa Johnson also a Minnesota native so therefore I Didn't realize that but we I still got my my Minnesota agenda off regardless So thank you Tessa for allowing a Minnesota to still win a national championship despite pagebackers losing in the final four We're gonna break down this men's national championship game a fort tonight from all angles letting you know We're a new Riley see value for tonight a fan dual sports book in just one second First a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast full week here on the show because of course We've got the masters coming up this week So Brandon could do will join me on Wednesday breaking down Special markets for Augusta breaking on his favorite pets at Fandall sportsbook and much more talking some baseball for tomorrow We got UFC coming up later on this week So a lot of good stuff here in the feed make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast If you like what you hear leave us a five star rating on Apple podcast or over on Spotify say goodbye to that busted bracket Don't worry about anymore But also you can bet on this national championship game at Fandall sports book along with all other games right now new customers Get $200 and bonus bets your first $5 bet wins the 200 bucks You can use on point spreads money lawns whatever it may be digger Tuesday, etc This is fandall.com and bet on college hoops until they cut down the nets tonight must be 21 plus and President select states fandall is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement With Kansas Dark Casino LLC first online real money wager only $10 first deposit acquired Bonus issued is now a drop of bonus bets that expire seven days after a seat see terms at sportsbook.fandall.com gambling problem call 1800 gambler or the fandall.com slash Rg in Colorado Iowa, Michigan New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia North Carolina and Vermont call 1 800 next step or Texan accept a 533 4 2 in Arizona 1 8 8 7 8 9 7777 Orphans is EC PG.org Slash chat in Connecticut 1 809 with an Indiana 105 2 2 4700 is a chaos gambling health.com in Kansas 1 8777 770 stop in Louisiana visit md gambling health, Oregon, Maryland 1 800 gambler net in West Virginia 1 800 5 2 2 4700 in Wyoming hope is here visit gambling helpline ma.org or call you hundred three two seven fifty fifty for 247 support in Massachusetts or call 1 877 a hope and why or text open Y in New York Now before we talk the actual betting markets for this game I did want to talk to both of you guys about your overall view of this match was right Let's start things off here with you. How do per doing Yukon match up stylistically for tonight? Yeah, so of course the the big matchup that we're all going to talk about is going to be Donovan Klingon vs. Zaki I mean how can you not these guys are? They're just they've been playing unbelievable. Edie just became the first player to record 20 points 10 rebounds in six straight tournament games and then you got Klingon on the other side. That's just His defense has just been ridiculous. I mean like the stats that came out of that elite a Illinois game for Klingon were absurd Illinois went 0 for 19 on shots contested by Klingon When Klingon was on the court Illinois scored scored only 14 points So these guys are just like playing an unreal level Also, Evan Maya, he has these two players as the most valuable players in the country And it's pretty much been that way all year long You have Edie is a top player and then you have Klingon leading in the defensive metric there So You know, they're they're both two teams that are basically build around their big man and how well they play and how they can defend the rim So I think something that was really interesting that I saw that I guess I didn't quite realize until this point was Both teams actually give up quite a bit of a two-point shots And to me that kind of says, you know, we have these dominant Defensive guys on the inside defending our rim, you know If you want to come in here and try to shoot out and go for it because you're probably not going to make it it's a tough it's a tough tough ask but Of course, they haven't really seen another center like they're about to see on the other side of the court So I think that's going to be interesting and then um, I think the big thing that I'm Really interested to see too is how the backcourt matchup pans out because yukon's backcourt is a lot bigger um, you have cam spencer and tristan newton both standing at six foot four and uh, six foot five And then purview is backcourt. Of course, you have braden smith and lance jones at six foot and six foot one So I think the size Advantage for yukon for the backcourt is going to be interesting as well Yeah, so that'll be a lot of fun in addition to the eddy versus klingon matchup adin What about for you? What stands out stylistically for yukon versus purview? Yeah, like riley said, I think The big man matchup is obviously going to be the headline grabber I think uh, I saw yesterday's cbs research had said something that this is the first time since the kim olajewan and patrick ewing played in the 84 championship that two seven footers have played at all in the nca And this is the first time we've ever seen two guys over seven two playing the tournament And so that's going to get all of the headlines. I think for the most part those guys are still going to get theirs um, if eddy can get Klingon into foul trouble. Obviously that's going to be a really big difference maker But for me, it's the wings and the guard play is going to be the x factor It's going to be what decides the game. Um, I think like you said braden smith sananat six foot six foot one I think that might even be a little generous like he I think we're going to see him It's going to look small out there compared to those guys and he's kind of been the biggest driving factor for Their run this year and like how much better they've gotten and so He even struggled in the semifinal game He's had a couple turnovers and we saw that last year when they lost to the 16 seed to fdu he had seven turnovers and That's been something he's largely been able to stay away from this year and so his ability to take care of the ball and A limit the extra possessions that yukon gets I think it's going to be key to this game And then for me the biggest thing is stefan castle for yukon. Um, he's one of their wings He's a freshman He's probably going to go the highest out of anyone in this game in the upcoming mba draft just because he's So big he's so athletic and He probably had his best game of the season in that final four win over alabama And so for and we do see this a lot like these role players Step up in the final four and just become such bigger factors And if he is going to look the part look like an actual mba player in the championship That gives yukon just such a big edge that Purdue's doesn't really have on the wing that same caliber player And we're seeing that edge reflected here in the betting market We're right now a fan to a sports book Purdue is favor by or yukon is favor by six and a half That was actually five and a half on the look ahead line for the hypothetical matchup when they had these up before the final four So aiden some movement towards yukon here Do you agree with that movement based on the mattress you were discussing or is Purdue now value at this game at six and a half So if you look at a lot of like the top models that we're looking at when we try to examine these games They all have this game like within three points like kempamas at like 2.8 Torvix under three as well like All of the analytics are saying that this game should be super close And I think the line just reflects how much respect the market and the public has for yukon during this run So I do think it's warranted But man, it makes it really just makes you want to take that six and a half with Purdue Like it's it's like they're begging you to take the boilers Are you willing to do that? Will you take that bait or are you personally inclined to pass and look elsewhere for your value for tonight? Yeah, I think we'll we'll get into some props a little bit later And I think that's probably if you want to play Purdue I think that's gonna be the way to do it is to try to find some correlation Where you can find a way for Purdue to cover like what we're specifically looking at for them to get it within six and a half But I don't know. I don't know if I can lay that six and a half just by itself at minus 105 I think that makes a lot of sense. What about for you Riley? How are you doing this one to spread at six and a half? Yeah, I'm kind of in the same boat I totally understand why this is at six and a half for yukon and they just been so dominant since last year really But both teams they've covered every single game in this tournament. They're both 5 and 0 against the spread And I'm just I'm in the same boat as Aiden here. I I'm really having a hard time taking either side of the spread I think it's I think it's tough because you see these models saying, oh, this is going to be a close game You know, you may see yukon win by two or three But then, you know, you also break down the match up and look at the backcourt different the wing difference Like Aiden was mentioning and then you're kind of oh, well, maybe yukon can get it So I'm I'm really torn on the spread. Yeah, and the good thing is we've got a lot of markets So you can happily pass but there is a market that you are not quite buying into total for this game Is 145 and a half riley any or down to 144 and a half any read for you on the total for this one Well, I was on the under and then it's moved to 144 and a half since but I think I'm still comfortable going with the under I'll still go for it. Um It's for the unders 4 and 1 and uh produce five games in the tournament It's also hitting three straight games for Purdue in the tournament The under is also 5 and 0 for yukon in this tournament And I I think for me the biggest thing that I'm very very interested in is how are these teams Especially ed and cling and how are they going to shoot around the rim? Are they still going to be very efficient even though they're seeing a defensive big man? They haven't seen all year I think that's going to be very telling obviously with how this this total pans out But just considering the trends for both teams this tournament. I'm still going to go with the under All right. How about for you aiden total now again 144 and a half any thoughts for you on that? Yeah, both of these teams have not shot the three very well at all in this tournament, which Makes me like a little nervous to continue to back that trend especially Purdue's was one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country during the regular season and I think like I was saying if you want to back Purdue I think you're going to be expecting it to be a little bit more high scoring game Because they don't have quite the same level of defense as yukon. So I think it's like how you envision this game playing out I am leaning towards Purdue keeping it close But because of that I would also think that it would go over and so I think You see that a lot where the lines kind of the spread correlates with the total with the teams And I think that's especially true in this national championship So slightly in towards the over but I think that's a pretty fair number just based on what Riley said What they've been doing of late and the good thing is you can use that intuition of okay If Purdue does want to covering I think that stylistically this game will play this way You can consider that for stuff like saving game parlites, which we'll discuss here in a bit Whether you see some value in those for tonight, but Aiden you mentioned some player props and potentially Buying into Purdue via that route versus buying in via the spread at six and a half So when you look at the player prop market any value for you stand out specifically there Yeah for Purdue two points props that i'm really looking at I think right off the bat just seeing eddie I think he's dropping out at 23 and a half this morning Which like man, I know Klingon is so good But just it's how crazy his usage has been and how much he's been playing for a guy that big His last three games just played 38 39 and 40 minutes Like if he's going to be out there all 40 minutes, I find a really hard time unless I You think you kind of is going to cover the spread and blow them out I find it really hard to believe that eddie's not going to get up to 24 points But the big one for me is braden smith's points So I believe it is at 13 and a half 10 and a half. Sorry. Yeah 10 and a half He is like I said, he's the x-factor both of these teams with their big guys They both run a lot of pick and roll and defensively because they have these monsters in the paint They play drop coverage So basically they're having their big guy just kind of sit and sink in the paint And the guard's gonna run over the top of the screen And what that does is that opens up a lot of like mid-range shots and a lot of ways for the point guard to distribute Or to get into the lane for a little runner and braden smith's mid-range game has been really really good this year And that has me really liking that 10 and a half. I don't love that. It's minus 130 I think my We'll get in the same game parlays, but I think that would be A way to play the same game parlays for me is to get into the braden smith's points But I think my favorite prop is the tristan newton for yukon over 15 and a half Like I said, both teams play that drop coverage and we saw we haven't seen them play a guy like eddie Quite of that caliber, but they did they have played kraton twice who has ryan cock runner Who is another seven foot big man and they run a very similar style defense where a cock runner wanted to stay In a pay and protect the rim and produce gonna do the same thing in those two games Tristan newton went for 27 and 16 points He was over his 15 shots in both of those games and his scoring has been a little down in the last few games of the tournament but He's a fifth year senior six five big guard and he's been their leading scorer all year And we saw him score 19 the championship last year when he was being guarded by some smaller defenders and If purdu's gonna try to match up with him with braden smith or lance jones who he's gonna have that size advantage over I really like his ability to be able to get into the paint and create his own shot So I think that 15 and a half is a really nice number for him Yeah, that's our tristan newton right now fandall sportsbook over 15 and a half is minus 115 other ones aiden mentioned there Zach eddie over 23 and a half points at minus 120 and then braden smith Over 10 and a half at minus 130. What about for you a riley? Where are you seeing value in the player prop market for tonight? So aiden is thinking the exact same way i am I also love that tristan newton prop that was the same one i'm on for all the same reasons that aiden listed Just a size advantage there the way uconn plays newton gets a lot of good good shot opportunities typically with the way they run their offense Yeah, I mean he scored 19 in last year's championship I think this game could turn out obviously not the same margin where it turns into a blowout to this degree But I think this game could turn out similar to the san diego state and uconn game this week 16 Where san diego state's guards that's under undersized kind of struggle to defend uconn's Which we saw in last year's national championship as well So I think we could get in a similar boat there where you see uconn's guards Be like aiden mentioned earlier is the x-factor and this is the reason uconn comes out on top is because their guards are just bigger And they're getting a lot of great shot shot opportunities So I think another way you could ride that is going for kame spencer's three point Three-point attempts or shot shots make my bad. Um, I think we could go for two maybe and The odds aren't great there or wait my fault. I met three. I apologize Gets too many shots for two. Yeah, so Is a a bit more realistic here. He shoots too much for two made threes, but um Same thing. I mean he he's probably going to be guarded by a smaller guard You're probably going to get jones or smith on them, which are at um six foot one and six foot kame spencer six foot four Purdue also gives up quite a bit of three-point shots as aiden mentioned earlier though Neither one of these teams is really shooting the three well So I think there is some risk involved there Will uconn finally start making those threes think if anybody's going to do it It's kame spencer and he's facing the defense that is Under size on the perimeter gives up a lot of three-point shots and that that plus 132 looks great as well So that that's another one. I liked okay, so the alignment was on tristan newton over 15 and a half points That's a minus 115 and then riley wanted to add in their kame spencer three plus made threes That is plus 132 now what we'll do now is i'm going to give both you guys a single same game parlay You can put out for the game and your favorite same game parlay you can build Over at fangirls sports of riley. Let's kick things off with you If you're building one same game parlay for this game, which legs are you including within that? So if I was to build a same game parlay I am just going to continue to give uconn the respects and I guess if i'm gonna take a side it's gonna be on uconn They've been rolling all tournament. They did it last year too So I would be on their side when building this I would go for uconn cover. I'd go with the under as well And then I would just do the same two props that I mentioned as well So uh the over 15 and a half for tristan newton and then the three made threes for cam spencer All right, so if you were to pair all of those together, uh, that would wind up We can't include the three made threes in there if we do with the uh, with without that Just the uconn minus six and a half under 144 and a half Tristan newton over 15 and a half points that is plus 5 38 Right now at dual sports book and like you said, they all do kind of play well together outside of the under with the points prop there but You just kind of make the assumption that this leans towards a uconn game And as adin was talking about before a uconn game may lend itself towards the under So riley wants uconn minus six and a half under 144 and a half tristan newton over 15 have points. That is plus 5 38 What about for you adin? You're filling out a single same game parlay for this game. Which legs are you including in that? So this is fun. So I will give everyone a nice little Yukon same game parlay. And then I kind of went the other direction with more of a Purdue same game parlay. So to start with that six and a half still scares me. But if we're going to start to correlate it with some of these extra legs, I don't mind getting into some of the alternate spreads. So alternate spread three is plus 10 and a half for Purdue. And I think that is something I can get behind if I'm backing that up with some extra legs here. So we start with Purdue plus 10 and a half. And then going back to Braden Smith's points over 10 and a half. And then just taking the over 144 and a half. And so kind of the opposite line of thinking as Riley, but the same logic where if I think Purdue was going to keep it close or within 10 points, I think Braden Smith is going to have to have a big game. And I do think Purdue is going to have to score and make Yukon keep up with their offense and make it more of a high scoring game. And so I think that even it's not quite as juicy as the plus 500, but even at plus 264, that is something I feel a little more comfortable with rather than just laying that plus six and a half. So some more flexibility there by getting the Purdue plus 10 and a half there for the alternate spread. So Aiden is going with Purdue plus 10 and a half. Braden Smith over 10 and a half points over 144 and a half. That is plus 264 at Fanville Sportsbook for that. And again, kind of leaning into, okay, if I envision Purdue covering plus 10 and a half, what things do I expect to be more likely to occur? You expect Braden Smith to play a key role in this game and for it to be a higher scoring game than we see. Otherwise going back to what you said initially there. So again, just trying to identify legs that play well together. And if I assume this bet hits, this bet hits, which other bets are thus more likely to hit as a result of that? So I think both those are pretty fun and different views of this game. Any final thoughts for you Aiden before we close up shop for today? I don't think so. I think this could be one of the best national championships we've had in quite a few years. And I am just super excited that we all get to enjoy this. And for the sake of viewership, I really hope Purdue covers the spread. We get a nice game. What about for you Riley? Any parting thoughts for us before we close out the 2023-2024 Men's College basketball season? Well, it's been a fun one. I think the tournament hasn't featured the Cinderella's as much as we've wanted. But in the end, we're getting probably the best national championship we could hope for. So I'm really hoping that this ends up being a great game. And you know, I would be happy if Purdue covered because I want a great game here. I don't want a repeat of 2021 where you had Baylor and Zaga, and it just kind of was not what we hoped for. So I have high hopes. I think this could be a great, a great one. Want to close things out in the high net. Well, I appreciate both of you for joining me throughout this year to talk about some, some betting. I appreciate the time you've made for the show. It's been fun to have both of you on here. Find Aiden Cotter on Twitter at Aiden Cotter FD. Find Riley Thomas on Twitter at underscore Riley eight and find both their work over at Fandall research. A lot of the good stuff from them beyond just college basketball as well. I am on Twitter at Jim Sonos. You can follow Fandall research on Twitter at Fandall research reminders. Make sure you subscribe to covering the spread to get all our shows as they go live here on the feed. If you like what you hear, leave us a five star rating on Apple podcast or Spotify. You can also find this show on the Fandall YouTube page and Fandall TV plus. Enjoy the basketball for tonight. Hopefully at a blast in a profitable tournament as well. We'll talk to you all once again tomorrow to break down. That's a dinger Tuesday at Fandall Sportsbook. This has been covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network.