 Welcome to another TITRA Weekly Market Outlook for week commencing the 7th March with me Patrick Runley. Obviously the main driver of the news cycle remains the Russian invasion in Ukraine and the human tragedy that's being witnessed over there at the moment. Developments over the weekend are likely to continue to royal markets and impact volatility but beyond that we want to take a look at the data for the week ahead and we start in the US on Tuesday with January consumer credit and robust demand for credit as the pandemic savings continue to be worked down is likely to be witnessed. We also get the February NFIB small business optimism looking for a 97.4 print there Omnicron has temporary dampens confidence in the US. We also get January trade balance looking for a negative 87.2 billion print there the deficit to remain wide on demand and inventory rebuild round out Tuesday with January wholesale inventories looking for a 0.8 print final estimates supply chain issues are being worked through now so looking for that to work pretty positive. On Wednesday we get the January jobs job opening looking for a 10,968k print there continues to point to extraordinary demand for workers and that continues to drive the openings activity in the US and then importantly on Thursday we get the February CPI looking for a 0.8 print there as the price pressures continue to hold annual inflation at 40 year highs follow up on Thursday with initial jobless claims obviously likely to remain very low given the current employment situation in the US with that really strong print on Friday for non-farm payrolls and we ran out the week on Friday with the March University of Michigan sentiment looking for a 62.8 in line with the last print obviously inflation and rate concerns are starting to hit confidence pretty hard in the US from a technical perspective the dollar index strong rally taking out that 98 34 level we were looking at the 61.8 percent retracement of the 2021 decline so unless we get an immediate snapback to the downside and basically take out Friday's lows at 97.80 on Monday get some follow through the focus remains to the upside I'm looking for a test now of monthly projected range resistance 99.23 as pullbacks remain shallow there I'm then looking for prices to extend up through the 100 level and then as we get a corrective move from there I'm ultimately looking for 98.40s to act as support as we then challenge the 78.6 percent retracement and the 2.618 extension of this of this last corrected leg all coalescing around the 182 to 101 level from there I'm watching the bearish reversal patterns as an opportunity to engage on the short side in the eurozone Monday brings the March syntax investor confidence reading looking for a 10 print their geopolitical tensions obviously a risk and the economic economy otherwise though has been pretty robust and healthy in Europe on Tuesday we get the fourth quarter GDP looking for a 0.3 percent print third estimate is likely to confirm the component detail from the second estimate print and then on Thursday we get the all-important ECB policy decision focus on updated forecasts and views on the current risks anticipated that the ECB will hold rates at 0 percent and that rounds out the activity in the eurozone in terms of data next week and so what we're looking at now in terms of the euro we took out the 78.6 percent 110 level and similar to the dollar index really unless we get a snap back and close back through 110 70 on Monday I'm anticipating we grind lower here and ultimately get a test then of 106 50s before potentially seeing a more significant corrected move back into the 110s but ultimately we should we should print down below 106 as as that 110 111 area acts as resistance in Japan next week let's see what we've got on Wednesday we get the fourth quarter GDP looking for a 1.4 percent print fine lessen underlying strength evident now versus the pre-omnicom breakout in Japan we then also round out the week on Friday with the Japanese household spending looking for 3.8 percent print pent up demand still present in the in the household spending there but rising costs are likely to start to to become a drag on that from a technical perspective as dolly and continues to find this resistance at this 115 70s 116 area I'm looking for moved down into ascending trend lines for 113 30 113 50 from there I'm watching for bullish reversal patterns to engage on alongside ultimately targeting the equality objective versus the swing low 108 70s up to 170 70s at this stage as I've said before really would take it close through this trend line resistance to suggest a more meaningful top is in place and we'll be looking back down then to the European pivot at 111 in the UK we have next week well it's a pretty light data counter to be honest with you in terms of in terms of the UK next week all we've really got is is Friday when we get January trade balance a COVID-19 and the brexit continue to create trade instability in the UK and from a technical perspective the sterling is now back down testing this support zone at the 131 60s as this 133 area continues to act as resistance I'm looking for another leg to the downside to target the equality objective versus the 138 35 swing high down to 130 from there I'm anticipating a more sustained corrective move to take this back up into 133 50s to 134 level so watching for bullish reversal patterns as we test that 130 to engage on the long side at a minimum for a three-way corrected move into that 133 50 134 level and rounding things out in Australia Monday February A&Z job ads job ads up strongly further evidence of a tight labour market in Australia as we're seeing globally at the moment Tuesday we get the February NAB business survey conditions and confidence likely to show robustness in the rebound from the Omnicron disruptions and then on Wednesday we have Governor Low speaking a speech to the AFR business summit in Sydney we also have Deputy Governor DeBell speaking at a panel referring to digital economy conference on Wednesday Thursday we get the March inflation expectations likely to be elevated mirroring a lift in official estimates of CPI and then we round out the week in Australia Friday again Governor Low speaking at a banking conference so pay attention to those those speeches from Governor Low next week in terms of the the Australian side of the slate from a technical perspective looking now for the Aussie to test this equality objective versus the swing low here at 1795 we have 74 we have descending trend line resistance trend channel resistance sorry coming in there and we have the yearly pivot 74 20s I'm watching the bearish reversal patterns in this area to engage on the short side of the minimum looking for three-way corrected move back into the pivot at 71 80s as always trainers plan the trade shrink the plan and most importantly manage your risk until next week thanks very much