 Hey, what's up everybody? Ricky Caruth here and there's so much to talk about concerning the housing market in the US right this second. I've been gone for three weeks speaking to you guys all over the country and the market went absolutely bonkers. I want to talk about that. I want to talk about the dangers that we could see if the housing market becomes too overheated again. But Redfin came out and they said that the housing market is recovering. We're in a recovery stage, which I thought that was a little too soon to really say that because are we in a false, you know, are we having a false rally here? Is this just a false sense of security with the buyers coming back temporarily? Are we looking at more pain down the road? So this is something to think about, but we are getting multiple offers. We're getting multiple offers on listings all over the country. Okay, and actually this is in the media now. There's articles being written about this and I have messages from agents all over the country. I'm going to read several to you here in just a second, but there's more positive data. NAR came out and said in their pending home sales report that they were up 2.5% month over month in pending sales. That was the first time that we had an increase since May. Very interesting stuff. Mortgage applications also were up 28%. They're up 28% right now compared to the low. And so we're seeing this wave of activity starting to brew. And when you see these multiple offers start to happen, this really should be eye-opening to you about the state of the market and what's really happening because as I have been saying, demand is sitting there brewing and building. And when you have a situation where inventory is dropping like a rock, which is what it does every year at this time. And it's what's happening right now. I'll show you the data in just a second. When you have inventory dropping and demand building and interest rates coming down like they have, what do you think is going to happen? We're going to be right back in the same boat where all the buyers are fighting over the same houses. This wasn't hard to see. It's happening in slow motion. But I want to dig in to all this stuff with you today and share my thoughts. First, I want to share with you some of these messages. And I have absolutely hundreds of messages, hundreds of agents all over the country just like this. Here's one an agent said, as a new agent, I toured three open houses yesterday, one fixed flip, one fixed or flip, and two million dollar properties all had double digit visitors at the open houses. Boston market heating up suburbs, 15 groups at open houses. Condo market lags, but lots now moving at ask or just over. Over 60 offers here on a listing in the Bay Area. Two homes under contract in one day last week. My listing and buyer and new build. Boom. Multiple offers in New Mexico and we had our biggest year yet last year. Excuse me. Top 10 in MLS for units. Okay. Let's see. Let's get to some more real data here. 26 offers received on a house here in northeast Wisconsin. It was listed at 200. Any agents who thinks the market isn't going to, is going to crash should turn on their license. Been in two multiple offer, uh, over asking deals in the last two weeks. Central Ohio is back to multiple offers and low supply. It's not that it was ever, you know, the multiple offers made have went away, but the low supply was kind of always there. Like we're nowhere near where we were pre pandemic and we were already low pre pandemic. Honestly, builders can even keep up. Last two offers submitted, seven offers, seven offers on one and nine on the other one. And so we're seeing this all over. I could, there's so many messages in my phone, hundreds from agents all over the country that are talking about multiple offers and open houses. And, you know, mortgage applications. I talked to a lender, this lender, this group of, uh, this lending group, they were doing around 150 to $200 million worth of mortgages before interest rates started coming up. And now they're doing about 80. They're trying to get it back to a hundred million a month. This is a, this is millions per month that they're closing in loans. And he said that mortgage applications, they have about 120 million worth of mortgage applications, pre approvals, sitting on their desk. Those haven't, those haven't converted into pending deals yet. But guys, this is just the beginning stages of this. Now this, this could go, you know, a different direction than what we want. You know, they're not going to let this thing just can completely just go to the moon like it was. And we're seeing that already. Lumber prices soar 13% as, uh, as the, the housing market begins to heat up again. Okay. This is in essence, the definition of inflation where, you know, you have so much demand, so little supply, and then the cost of goods and services go up to compensate for that. Um, when we see lumber start to go up that, that's an indicator. That's a key indicator here in the housing market of, I hate to say it, but inflation. And if we see a second wave of inflation, that's going to raise the 30 year, uh, fixed mortgage and that, that could slow the market back down. Um, we're still going to have an inventory issue of course, but when you, you know, interest rates are literally the lifeline. It's the bloodline of the housing market and it really dictates what people can afford, uh, on houses. And it's going to dictate how, how strong, uh, demand is in terms of not pinned up demand. You know, pent up demand is going to be there. You know, but as far as how many people can actually afford to go out and buy a home. And so that's what's very interesting. So I want to move over to, I want to show you some, some data here in, in, uh, the red fin, um, news data center, which I think is a really incredible platform. But first let's look at home sold. If you see the blue line here, this blue line is 2023 and you see it's going down just like it did in 2021 and 22. Okay. It's identical. And you see every year, you know, around February, March, it starts to pick up and it starts this up climb. So we're in a normal yearly seasonal cycle right this second. But when you look at this chart, what is so interesting is the similarities. When you get here to, um, June and you see this dip, you see it's the exact dip and the exact spike. And you go over here and you have the exact dips and spikes all the way, all the way to the end of the year. Look how similar these dips and spikes are in terms of the number of homes sold throughout the country throughout the year. And when you add 2020 to the mix, look what this does. You see during the, you know, when we shut the economy down, how it dipped, but then look when it got right back on track, look how identical it was compared to 2021. Look how identical that is. It just goes to show you that this stuff is incredibly seasonal. You know, as you move through the year, if we look at prices, you know, the orange is 2021. This is prices. And you see that, that it peaked out in July and then it came down, right? It came down all the way to October. It drifted down in the year of multiple offers and a hundred thousand more than asking price. Actually, median sales prices went down that year from June to October and then just kind of stayed flat for a little while. And you see every year prices start out a little flat and prices start out a little flat. And you see that's the same for 2023. It's flat. What's going to be very interesting here is that if prices stay the same and the blue line intersects the black line, which is 2022, as soon as it intersects, that means we're negative year over year as far as median prices go. And that's when the media is going to have a filled day with articles and headlines and negativity in the market. Now, there's a lot of YouTubers that I've been watching that feel like when the media does start this negative headlines about prices, when in fact prices are the same as they are now, we're still at that point probably going to be getting multiple offers and tons of demand and inventory is going to be low and it's going to be a great, great market. And kind of we just take just a second to recognize and appreciate what the market is right this second. This is like a dream come true type situation where you can go out, you can stack listings, maybe have to take some overpricing, take them because I think we're going to see a wave in the spring, a wave of activity. And you're going to want to be the agent that has piles of listings, whether they're a little overpriced or not, if you're the only one with listings, they're going to have to come to you. But we're able to stack listings, sellers are giving concessions, prices are down from the peak. I mean, this is like, this is what dreams are made of, but if prices stay the same, we're going to see huge negative year over year, negative numbers. But that's just compared to last year and, you know, we're really in the same boat that we're in now, really great market. So I want you to be prepared for those negative headlines. Now, this is very interesting right here. Of course, the orange line is 2021. And you see how it dip? This is the number of active listings. Okay. So, but right here in from February to August, from February to August, the active listings and inventory went up. Okay. Now the black line was last year and inventory went up more than normal, of course. But look at the trend. It's the same trend. It's the same, you know, seasonal trends as we have every year. And look right now, dropping like a rock. This blue line indicates 2023. And we're dropping like a rock just like we do every year. And then around February, March, the active listings and inventory starts to creep up. And that's what I believe we're going to see this year. We're going to see this trend go down. It may go down further than normal. We'll see how far it goes down and when it starts to creep back up. But it will creep back up just like it does every single year. But why isn't anyone talking about this? This is what's very interesting to me is the year of the boom, we had prices come down. We had inventory go up, you know, during that time, but nobody's really talking about that. So, you know, when you look at the market, overall, we're in a really good shape. The dangers are is if inflation comes back, that's what the dangers are. Wage growth is too high right now. The job market is been resilient through this. We're looking at so many incredible data points in terms of showing the resiliency of the economy. It's just going to be a matter of can they control spending? Can the government control consumer spending? Because if we get into a place where we're spending too much again, then that means inflation is going to go up because the cost of goods and services are going to go up to compensate for the amount of demand. And so little supply and we're going to be right back in the same boat. That's not going to be a good thing because if inflation comes back up, so will interest rates. And, you know, we're kind of just going to be in this cycle. So that's what I want to keep an eye on. That's what I want to think about in these videos for you is to try to keep you ahead of the curve. And I'm just going to say what I've been saying is that if you can go out there right now, because I feel like if I had a crystal ball, I think I would see that mortgage rates aren't going to go up by spring. But I have no idea. But if I had a crystal ball, I would say that they're not going to go up back up to seven by spring. I feel like we're going to have a massive surge of demand and buyers in the spring. And you're going to be the one sitting on a stack of listings. So my advice to you is go as hard as you can right now to go out there and stack so many listings to the moon that you just can't even like take some overpriced listings, negotiate down on your commission if you have to here and there. Do what you have to do to go out there and stack some listings up because you're going to be the one that's in the driver's seat when we hit one of these massive waves. I'm going to age it right now. He's got 21 active listings, five pending. And he's just stacking, stacking, stacking, stacking. So I feel like that's the play right this second. What happens beyond spring? We'll have to take a look. We'll have to take a look at the data and the market and where we are and where interest rates are and what's happening. And then we can kind of plan out where we go from there. But even if we don't see a massive wave, does it hurt you to go out there and get a bunch of listings? Is that going to be a bad thing? Is there any way you could lose by going out there and getting a bunch of listings? No, not at all. You win regardless. And that is what I stand by. I'm going to tell you things that you can go out and do where you're going to win regardless of what happens in the market. That's what I live by. And that's what I built my business on. No lose situations. How can I go out here and crush it in a situation where, worst case, it's a home run? So that's what I'm excited to see. You guys go out there and stack up some listings. Let me know what I can do to help you. Of course, I have all my free courses and everything on Circle Prospecting, where to get phone numbers, videos of me making calls, 60-day challenge. All that stuff is absolutely free. That's at zero2diamond.com. I'll put a link in the description for that. And anything else that I can do for you. I'm absolutely here to help you through this market and 2023 and beyond. I'm going to break out a video tomorrow. It's going to be the number one listing opportunity right now in the market. I'm excited about that video. And I'll put another video right here for you to go out and listen to. I feel like this video right here is going to be one that absolutely changes your business as well. And let me know your thoughts on today's video in the comments. So take care and have a great rest of your day.