 Hi everyone, welcome to the June 21st summer equinox version of my weekly video. I am Mish Schneider, Chief Strategist of MarketGauge.com. And lots of different news going on, the CPI obviously with the UK, but also here in the United States the food prices have gone way up through the agriculturals. We pointed out corn for the last several weeks, that has made a big move, and the biggest culprit of course would be the weather. Now we had the Fed meeting last week, and this week it was followed up by Powell really basically talking that he was still interested in raising rates to beat inflation. But what we do know is that there's inflation and then there's food inflation that is fueled by mother nature. And of course that's a very, very hard thing to beat because once these prices go up on these raw materials and shortages are in the silos and in the supply chain then we start to see food hoarding by governments. But that's a whole other story. Let's take a look at some futures and we're going to begin with the relationship between the US dollar and the Japanese yen. The actual Japanese stock market has been doing very well through the NICI. And the dollar though recently has had a little bit of rally, finding that support around 102 that we were talking about, but really not very much support. So what we're seeing right here is the dollar, which is the lead indicator, rallying against the yen as it took out that 140 level. But now that it has, and remember if we look back historically here, we're talking about levels that we haven't seen since November 2022. And so we just tested those levels and now it looks to me like it's possible that it's getting a little bit tired. What would be a bonafide reversal would be of course this new high that we're seeing today. That would be at 142.37 and the low at 141.34. We would actually see a move lower than that, which would mean that the yen was starting to outperform. And of course we're seeing a golden cross here, which is the 50 that's clearing over the 200. But these golden crosses, when you have a price so far away, don't necessarily always mean something, or what it could mean is that if we do break down under these recent lows, and let's use the low of yesterday, 141.22, that's the 20th, and then today's low slightly higher, we could see a move down to test near these moving averages. And that would be a move closer to about 138.50, which of course would mean that the yen is doing much better than the dollar at that point. And then we can reassess. In terms of the actual real motion indicator, this is our momentum. The dollar cleared the 200-day moving average, but note how the 50 is about to take over in price above the 200 for a bullish cross or a golden cross. In this case, the 50 is still below the 200. So we're linked a little bit in terms of phase divergence in the dollar versus the yen. But more interestingly to me right now, besides the move over the 200, is that we got right to the Bollinger ban, and now we're coming down. Quite the cleanest mean reversion we ever saw, but definitely somewhat of a mean reversion. So now let's take a look at the gold, because the gold market has been so interesting, and we've been following it very carefully over the course of weeks. So we can see that gold did exactly what we've been talking about. It never got through 1980, got right to it a few days ago. That would have been Friday last week, and now broke down under that 1950, and here we are. But before I would get too negative in this gold market, you have to understand that right now what we're seeing in the market is the bonds, which would be the long bonds, are starting to show some muscle. The spy is basically flat, and the risk ages which have been pure risk on for equities could be starting to flip. But more importantly, if we're really talking about some sort of supercycle in inflation driven by food and possibly oil, gold won't stay down here. So what we would be looking for at this point right now would be very simply 1950 as a pivotal point. And when I say pivotal point, what I mean is at this point in time right now, as long as we're under really 1940 and even let's say 1950, I would probably be a bit more defensive. But if we get back above 1950, then I would think that you would have a very tight risk to underneath the low of today, and that would mean a low of around 1930. So you know really basically about $20. And of course, if we got through 1950, then we'd be looking once again at that 1980 level. And then once we get through there, I think we can pretty much safely say that gold will be back on its own fumes. Now I also want to show you silver because silver has been very beaten up, but I think the silver is also presenting an interesting opportunity. So one thing I've noticed about the metals really for the last several years has been when they look really bad, it's time out. And of course, at some point that could change. But for right now, we're still really in that sort of overall philosophy. So what I really like about the silver market here is that we never got through the 50 and now today was the first time we actually tested the 200 and we held it. So that gives us a very clear area at around $22.50. But let's be even more precise and say $22.65. So here we are now basically at the close at around $22.84. And you can see we've had a couple of lows here over the last month in May. So right now, here's the thing that I would be looking for. If we can hold around this $22.78 level, then that would be a pretty low risk down to the lows right here if it held and started to clear. Then of course our next hurdle would be $23.00 and that would be probably more of a psychological point than anything else. But you can see we have some work here. We go back to the high here was at around $23.00. We go back to the high here was around $23.00. Look at how it tested that $22.50. Right where it tested here today and then took off. So between $22.80 and $23.00 would be your area where I'd be very nimble. But if we can get back through $23.00, then I see no reason why we wouldn't start to see now pretty heavily shorted a negative sentiment on silver along with gold start to reverse to the upside. And of course our next target would probably be back at around $24.00, $24.50.00 when we run into that 50 day moving average. So it's oil that really has my attention because it was just last week when Goldman Sachs, as you can see right here, I've actually put this on this chart. I write a daily every day that you can find in many different places. And I wrote about the fact that Goldman Sachs just like so many other institutions have been just wrong. And right now they've been very wrong so far about oil when they said that they thought oil would go another 10% lower at the actual low. Now what we have right now of course and as we've talked about is once it got through 70, that was a good point. And once again now we're going to another moment of truth in terms of the WTI July Futures contract once we get up to 73.30 which would be the 50 day moving average. So that tells me pretty simply right now we've got a little bit of a range that we can trade off of. If we look kind of at like the pivotal area I would say just slightly below 72, let's call it 7170 to 7180 really has to hold from a day trading perspective that would be a tight stop. And if we get through and continue up over 7270 then we can start looking at these highs and look at these two highs line up perfectly with the 50 and we clear over 7330. I see no reason why another very heavily instrument oil couldn't actually start to take a run to the upside. Of course where would we be wrong as again risking tight under the 7170 but really we would know that we were completely wrong I think at this point if it breaks down under $70 once again per barrel. So it was the corn chart that I've been focused on over the last several weeks and I told you about the reversal bottom, how I really liked it through 580 then obviously through the 50 over 6 and of course here we are now over the 200 day moving average with the explosion today. So this goes to show you how well these moving averages work and that the technicals often precede the fundamentals because this action was starting obviously seasonally we knew there was a potential of drought but the crop situation has been bad even in the Soviet Union. So now what we do at this point I just wanted to show you right now we'd like to see maybe some digestion and if we go back just a little bit here in time we're running into some resistance at around 671 those were the last two highs before we saw this big drop. So I would say if we were looking for some kind of a weakness we'd want to see this hold around 660, 661 and if we wanted to continue to buy strength and let's face it commodities can get awfully emotional and keep going up in a parabolic move I would say a move back over. And in that vein here's something I have not shown you before this is actually lumber physical futures the July contract and of course the housing numbers in the United States have come back really strong the big housing crash that everybody was anticipating once again the economists and the institutional investors wrong. So here we had that classic reversal with a couple of inside days and then off she went through the 50 and now this is why I'm showing you the chart because it's very similar to me like corn if we do a little bit of work here and consolidate and then get through this 200 day moving average that would also be highly inflationary because it would mean that the price of wood is getting higher which case you could also be looking at copper and steel and all the other type of materials that go into building along with what we just showed you with food and even the other metals the precious metals and of course 560 really up to about 567 would be your next place to be looking at as major resistance and to wrap up of course let's move over to equities this is the Dow Jones mini futures contract related to the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones interestingly enough the classic reversal pattern that you've heard me talk about over and over whether it be to the bottom like here or to the top like we just saw last week is one to note in that if we don't get through this 34 really it was about 34 9 let's call it 34 900 that could mean that we could be under pressure for a while even if we're seeing this well above its 50 day moving average at this point really not a breakdown into under 34 000 so from a trading perspective I would say right now we'd have to say that just looking back at some of those closes and the high from today 34 400 is my pivotal point we can't clear there I would anticipate a test of 34 000 which is where the 50 is and possibly even go lower if we do clear through 34 400 once again the equities market and particularly in stocks like GE and Boeing and Intel lows that are in the Dow Jones 30 could get another move up to test these highs in which case after that we would reevaluate whether or not we're able at this point in time to take out 35 000 so that's it for now thank you so much for watching I hope this was helpful and I'll see you all next week