 Good morning and welcome to the weekly market update with me, David Madden. Today's date is Monday the 12th of August 2019 and the time has just gone at 9.30 for this summer time It's been a reasonably subdued start to the European session Eclipse markets largely opened higher, but we have seen a bit of a turnaround in the last 15 or 20 minutes some of the major stories from from the last aid 12 or 12 or so hours The people's Bank of China the Chinese Central Bank Devalued the the one yet again, but the fixed it at seven spot zero to one one versus the US dollar But actually even though they devalued it They didn't they didn't devalue it as much as the market expected So we didn't see a bit of a push higher in Chinese stocks overnight The Asian session was fairly quiet as the likes of Japan Singapore and India those markets were all closed because of holidays So we got off to a recently positive start in Europe, but things have turned Turned over a little It's the same old story in relation to trade tensions is still hanging over Global equity markets on the back at the last week on Friday President Trump said in relation He won't be doing any business with Hawaii the Chinese tech giant That's obviously kind of sourd relationships between the two sides Over the weekend overnight Government sacks have lowered their fourth quarter US GDP for Forecasts from two percent down to 1.8 percent And they're not and there and there is now stating they do not believe There will be a trade deal between the US and China before the US presidential election in 2020 Also, there is there is going to continue political uncertainty in Italy at the back in the last week It looks like we've an update to mainly at the back in the last week It looks like we could be heading for a general election in Italy And that political stability is also going to factor in the in markets European markets pushing lower this morning So what I do now is take a look at the week ahead article discuss some of the major topics That's that that's the front of us for the next few days. And then I look at some of the major major markets So if you go to our website see if some markets calm under insights under news analysis You'll find where you find this article and this is for the bulk of Of our analyst updates get posted to so take a look what we expect in the next few days tomorrow and tuesday we have UK wages and unemployment figures on wednesday We have UK CPI figures The two of these should be kind of will be will be quite important Total unemployment rate in the UK is very very low and wages are actually going at a fairly decent rate and you can see here wage rate extending bonuses is Most recently 3.6 percent and the inflation rate in the UK is pretty much bang in line with the bank bank of England's target of 2 percent so workers are getting a decent rate rate of A decent real wage But the question is will they actually be going out and spending it because there has been some evidence Their consumer confidence is in decline because people holding off on account of brexit Looking ahead to wednesday. We have Retail sales and industrial production figures from china. This would be a quality watch because China's obviously cooling And any kind of science that the depth of chinese economy is slowing down at a faster rate could kind of Speed up the kind of jitters that traders already have in relation to the state of the global economy On wednesday, we first have figures from balfour bt These figures should be interesting because balfour bt a number of years ago the construction company went on Underwent a major restructuring program And the manage you actually could have survived Which was very impressive in relation to because there was talk of that company being in major trouble As you as you could recall carillion Went under that that was There are parallels drawn between the between the two carillion didn't didn't survive balfour bt had a brutal Restructuring program if they managed to turn it around so those figures will be interesting On wednesday, we have first half figures from prudential We have fourth quarter numbers from sisco systems on thursday We have uk retail sales and this is what we're talking about in relation to unemployment rate in the uk The earnings rate and also the inflation rate. So um, there's a lot of evidence that in that Uh, citizen dk are in jobs in the early decent wage But are they going out and she's spending money and that's going to be the crucial bit Um on thursday, we also have second quarter figures from walmart second quarter figures from invidia And on friday, uh, we have third quarter figures from deer and co given um, given that That the long ago and the the beijing authority is instructed to state owned organizations in china to halt agriculture imports from the u.s. They the forecast Um that deer give will be very very interesting. That's what traders are going to be keeping on for Take a look now at some of the major markets starting off the footsie 100 so as you can see here, um The footsie 100 had a fairly sharp sell-off at the back end of july the market has rebounded And a sizable chunk of the ground that was lost in relation to the latest round the trade tensions has been recouped And we're comfortably above the 200 a red moving average this red line here And that comes into play at 71 91 and essentially why we hold above that metric is it's likely that we could see The end of the wider market push to the upside Provider we hold above this metric and should that be the case We could be looking at targeting this area here around 7400 we can see that The water to move the average this the error line and this blue line here the fit the moving average The both have acted as support not too long ago and if metrics have acted as support in the past It's like it's possible That's might become resistance in the future and these two metrics almost kind of you know not too far, you know almost kind of flank, uh, this this the kind of 7400 kind of a psychologically psychology port number So if you do press up higher from here, we could be looking at targeting this area and if you do manage you can have a Size removed north of the fifth any moving average this blue line here and that comes into play at 74 38 If you have a size move above that, we could be looking at going to get carry on the wider trend heading up towards perhaps 7600 If the market though does manage to turn over itself yet again and fall back south of this red line here The turn they move the average we could be looking at retesting This region down here in around 7000 to 90 down to 7000 40 So this zone here could be looking at retested and of course if you go below that The psychology port and 7000 mark could be coming to play I'll take a look now. What's going on over in germany and the tax similar scenario I had a major sell-off a major sell-off last week towards the back in the last week And then at the market to recoup some of the ground But we're just about holding above the 30 movie average this red line here and that comes to play at 11 654 what we hold above that line is that it's likely that we could continue to continue to rebound Um, and if you do press on higher from here, we could be looking at targeting the psychology port 12,000 mark or perhaps even this yellow line here the 130 movie average and that comes into play at 12 104 we can see on a few occasions that metric acted as both Actors as a support in the past and it's that makes it more likely that it could be More likely that it could be significant in the future If the market those managed to turn over on itself and continuing to get over the more recent downward trend We could be looking any back down towards 11,400 or perhaps even this level here in around 11,200 and 70 Over in the u.s. Um, I'm taking a look at the dow Jones The u.s. Markets are clearly in better shape notice how the sell-offs that the at the u.s. Markets had Um, we're not not nearly as severe as those in europe also sort pointing out the u.s. Markets were coming when they were selling off Recently they're coming from all-time highs rather than say multi multi so the u.s. Markets are far better shape We can see here that the market As we reclaimed a sizable chunk of the ground that was lost some of the region of around say 50% of the ground that was lost recently We're comfortably above the two-day moving average on the dow Jones and you know While we kind of hold above that metric and hold above the kind of 26,000 mark a big psychological number While we hold above those metrics, it's likely that we could press on higher and keep them up the next year to potentially keep an eye For uh, which could be potentially important at this blue line here at the 50 moving average and that comes into play at 26,616 On a few occasions that acted as both support and and resistance so it's likely It's more likely that that that metric could be important in the future and if you have a If you have a size of break above that you could really be heading up towards 27,000 Once again the market does matter to turn lower and it does drop below 26,000 we could be heading back down towards this red line here the 30 moving average and that comes to play 25,595 I'll take a look at what's going on on the s&p 500 similar scenario the s&p with the dow Jones in that It's at a very sizable rebound. It's well above It's 200 day moving average here is well above that While we hold above that it's likely we could see the market press on higher from here If you do that, let's just kind of press on higher from these levels. We're currently at 2,912 if you press on higher from here, we could be looking at retesting this this blue line here the fifth of the moving average 2,944 A movie on that could take us up to 2,950 and if you get above that level and we get tough to be above The fifth of the moving average is it's likely that the kind of wider upward trend of within 19 Is going to continue and we could be looking at heading back towards the 3,000 mark If the market though does manage to turn over on itself Asserts it starts to drive lower. We could be looking at any back down to heading back down towards this area down here um The lows of thursday last week in around 2,871 this region here or perhaps even down and a break below that could take us back down towards this red line here The dirty moving average at just south of 2,800 2,796 Take a look at gold So gold has been one of the kind of major benefactors of the sell-off global equity markets Um, it's a it's a classic fight the quality play Combined with the fact that the u.s. Dollar has been fairly soft all the chatter and the talk that The u.s. Economy is going to get it's going to be with the global economy and in terms of the u.s. Economy It's going to slow down because of the trade tensions and whatnot That's a great chatter about the Fed reserve go to cut rates out of september and or december Uh, and that's another reason why the um the cold market has done well Last last week racked up fresh six-year highs. So we're in formally an upward trend Um, if you get a press on higher from here, we're currently just south of 11 of 1500 If you press on higher from here, we could be looking at our retesting this year over here in at 50 55 If we do see any kind of move to the downside We might see some fresh buyers end of the fold Seeing as buying of the dip has been a very popular strategy in the last couple of months So if we do drift lower from here support could be found from this area here in around 1472 or from this wider zone here 15 sorry apologies 14 53 down to 14 30 this entire zone here might might see um might see an area of support Uh, and if even if you drift below that uh support could be found from the kind of big psychological number at 1400 Take a look now. What's going on on the oil market? Oil has taken a bit of a hammering as well in you know In the kind of working if you know In the what it finished higher on friday and rallied a bit on thursday But you know the last few weeks has been taking a bit of a hammering Sit tying in with the trade story if the global economy is slowing down Is the perception is that there'd be less demand for oil So take a look here at the old market In the last few weeks been in a fairly clear downward trend to less series of lower lows and lower highs If you do manage if you can hold up of the recent lows in around this area on brand crude at 56 Spot 71 if you could hold up those lows We could be looking at any back towards the kind of psychology porn 60 mark Um, and if you go beyond that you could be looking at retesting this this blue line here the fifth removing average at 63 spot 37 But if the market does manage to continue in the recent downward trend and take out the recent lows in around the kind of 56 area We could be looking at any back down towards this is old here in around 52 But notice how Brand crude is firmly below. It's 50 moving average here the blue line That's also firmly below this red line here, which is this 200 day moving average And because I've been talking about wti west Texas immediate in one second So similar here. First thing we'll talk about moving averages wti Um, we since you know the last few weeks We said a lower low a lower high and another lower low We could even though we have bounced back on wti We could see that it's well below its blue line here the 50 moving average on this red line here It's 200 moving averages and while both markets are below their respective 50 moving averages 50 moving averages and 200 moving averages is likely that we're going to see a continuation Both markets press lower So if we do look to press lower on the wti market We could be looking at retesting this kind of zone down here It just kind of south of 51 dollars down to around kind of um, say Some 51 dollars down to around 50 36 And if we do press below that we could be looking at targeting this area here down at 48 bucks a barrel If though the market does manage to rebound We'd really need to kind of see a move back above the truly moving average Which comes to play at 56 it's about 24 At least the move kind of needs to see a market kind of move back above that and kind of close above that on a daily basis To be more confident at the recent downward trend has come to an end I take a look at another couple of currency pairs First things first euro dollar As I mentioned the public uncertain uncertainty in italy is a Is a factor The wider trend throughout 2019 has been very much of the downside on euro dollar Yes, it's a fairly size of a bounce back between late may and late june But as you can see the market quickly turned over on itself and had a fairly aggressive sell-off Into into early august the market has rebounded But it still is very much in a downward trend and we're pressing lower again today Uh, if the market does continue to drift lower we could be looking any back towards this region here in at one spot 1110 and a fairly size would break below that could could um Send the market even lower and take us back to has taken us back down to take us back towards The psychology port and one spot ted mark any bounces in a in In euro dollar would need to kind of overcome this area here This blue line here the fifth of the moving average would come to the play in around one spot 1237 we could see in a few occasions to try to get above it But I just even though I traded up to it couldn't couldn't actually get above it So if you get above that metric we could be looking heading back towards this area 113 Which coincides with the tuner date moving average I'll ask but not least the pound versus the u.s. Dollar Uh starting us out here after a rough ride racially There seems to be a lot of chatter about and no deal of brexit That's the way things appear to be going that can all change But while you you see no deal of brexit being flashed across the headlines on a regular basis That's likely to continue to put pressure on the British pound that we can see here It's been in a steady decline for recent months and we're not too far. We're currently at uh one spot 20 62 so not too far away from the kind of psychology port and one spot 20 mark And that could be an area of support should we press on lower from here If you do manage to see a rebound In pound versus u.s. Dollar we could see some resistance coming into play in around this region here in around the one spot 20 Do mark If you have any comments to make on this video or any of the other videos we've made here at cmc markets Please feel free to leave a view on the reviews. Thank you very much