 Great everybody. Welcome to the live stream. We got a lot of stuff to cover. So first of all, thanks for stopping by on this beautiful Monday morning, and we're gonna go over a bunch of different things and I got to tell you Things are looking pretty pretty decent. So first, of course, we're gonna do a little market recap We're gonna do things a little bit differently as far as taking a look at crypto and traditional market Also, let's take a look at good news and the earnings reports Which might turn things around because you know what bars set pretty low also Take a look at going long short-term buyers are getting wrecked and we'll take a look at some on-chain analysis monthly returns and hotel waves Then there's a last piece. I want to talk about Skybridge and the mooch They have the right mindset and really what they're doing is they're putting their their mouth where their money is I got to actually redo that one. I didn't spell it right and lastly We'll go over a little bit of Q&A quality of questions. I'll be in so first up welcome great Monday morning What's going on besides that the market is? Took a little bit of a dip yesterday on Sundays, which it always seems to do That's just how it is So we'll take a look right now actually and if you're for the live stream again welcome here for the replay just know We'll have time stands below and we'll try to get to to everybody's questions at the very end So hold them and tell the end let's jump into it, huh? So this is what we got before we start to look at the crypto market Let's take a look at where I think things are somewhat Correlated now, I think there might be a decoupling at some point, but this is the S&P 500 right now and it is almost 9 a.m. Here in El Paso, Texas, so East Coast we've been open for gosh, what? 910 11 about an hour two and a half hours or so and we can see that the traditional market is a little bit jittery and what's going on is because There's some earnings report coming out. So this is actually over just the just today Let's take a actually refresh this. Maybe it's gone up because I think I think Nasdaq has gone up as well No, not so much. Let's take a look to five day. Yeah, that's so great one month. Yeah Six months. Yeah, what are you gonna do? All right, so Nasdaq and this is where If you've fallen me and some other people, this is where we think that things are a little bit more correlated Nasdaq is more tech stocks and it seems like our Sector is being treated like a tech stock as opposed to a risk-off assets Which I think is what it really will become as time goes on But again, just to just to zoom in to give ourselves a more stress. We'll zoom in today Huh, let's see how it's doing over the one day. Maybe it's gone. Hey, look at that. Not too bad. So If we're looking at just for today in the last Two and a half hours, we started off pretty junk But maybe some earnings reports have come out and it's kind of climbed up found sell around So hopefully you'll see Not so much. Well, let's refresh this Amazing amazing. It was just It was just low and of course now the last hour it's gone up a little bit like a percentage point or so Let's take a look some stats How we doing as far as the total crypto market man 1.9 trillion. So again, it looks like that's what's going on and I will tell you right now That the rational person Me and you hopefully the people who are investing they don't Really trade a lot. We're mostly a bunch of hollers There's some traders out there and do whatever you want to do but just remember like we had talked about on I think this was last week Thursday or Friday just remember that This was from There was a video we did and it featured Steve Grasso from from Wall Street Also, he's on MSNBC and Squawk box and he talked about how he goes look He goes there's gonna be bots and there's these things called tape reading algorithmic bots And when people speak on these new shows or something comes out Especially when Jerome Powell spoke everything dropped down people like why is this happening? Because it's because the bots are you know in control and it's it starts a cascade effect Not bots like we see but just a little bit more advanced as far as algorithmic So one bot sells other bot sells before you know Traders pick it up and then we sell and that's what causes a little bit of rationality So if we see that earnings reports come out and it's not so great Just expect this to go down Precipitously because the bots also because of traders and that's really what's going on so That's what we have as far as like the beginning And this is what we have so here's the question Earnings report and hopefully it turns things around I can tell you right now I just did a quick little poll and it seems like most of you believe it's correlated But somebody don't think it's it doesn't really matter because in the long run who really cares so let's just jump into Some good news so this is the daily upside It's a news letter that I get as a link in the description you can sign up for it's free It just comes and gives you all the macro Events that are going on these guys work pretty hard for a free Newsletter now of course there's a little bit advertising in there because hey nothing's for free But I like how they put this together. So here's what they got first of all. I didn't realize but The markets don't like Uncertainty so of course around Political elections think a little bit of wonky so there is some good news Depending on who you believe Emmanuel Macron became the first French president to win re-election in 20 years So I guess there's a bit more stability over there if you're from France I'm sure some of you hate your president and some of you like your president just like in every other country But that's not the point the point is is that when we have a little more stability Hopefully it means the market will actually even out. There's what we got 180 companies this week will report their quarterly results 180 So that's just shy or just shy of 180 companies on the S&P 500 Worth close to half of the blue chips index market value report results By the end this week and that means there's some big hitters like Apple Microsoft Amazon alphabet And they're worth the combined eight trillion dollars or a fifth of the S&P 500 Now the S&P 500 is down 11% year-to-date reflecting the expectation of ten rate hikes over the next 18 months so if you Think that That Jerome Powell and his rate hikes are priced in I gotta tell you that's what we all thought and then last week We saw as soon as Jerome Powell spoke About raising those rates then of course the market tumble. So This is Something that's on the horizon However, here's the good news Against an ominous macroeconomic backdrop corporate earnings have actually held Done pretty well actually and if we take a look at the data 78 percent with the list up 78 percent Of the 99 S&P 500 companies that have reported First quarter results so far Have beat the analysts expectations now You don't hear that too much the news. You don't hear a bunch of stories about how hey a lot of companies have done pretty Well, all is you've been hearing lately is how Netflix has gotten hammered And how awful it is and how the sky is falling and that's just that's just par for the course What works in news? Usually a lot of negative stuff That's what gets people to click and to come in usually good news doesn't really work out too well That's then you can see that right now so 78 of those companies are doing pretty good this year's average beat rate Easily eclipses the historical average of 66 percent of overshavers since 1994. So 94 It's 66. I thought it was the most fantastic year and so far 78 percent Have been analysts expectations now the real question is Will that continue with microsoft and apple these big guys? So that's the good news, but just so you know alphabets earnings are expected to fall Less than a percentage or 0.7 percent and analysts see apple earnings climbing a meager 2 percent which You know, you think about it. You're like, well, it's still going up But the market is like blood hungry. They must have These huge gains that actually get excited. Unfortunately. That's what we live in. So this this is the next thing up Big tech firms are also staring down new regulatory pressure That could dole out billions in penalties. I didn't I wasn't aware of this. This is something that's I think we shall be aware European policy makers agreed over the weekend to reforms That will let regulators find online platforms With 45 million or more EU users or the european union up to 6 percent of their global annual revenues if they fail to crack down on illegal Or harmful content. I don't know how they're going to do that. It just sounds like another way to tax things Facebook owner meta based on their revenue of last year could be find up to seven billion dollars I'm not sure if that's a big thing for them But seven billion might be a drop in the bucket, but it is a way for tax to come up And then here's another one Before I read this sentence Just know that this is not a political channel So if you're gonna give me a thumbs down, give me a thumbs down because the content was just awful And you had absolutely no value whatsoever. Don't give me a thumbs down because you don't like a particular president or something that he says So this is what we got former President Barack Obama last week called on the us to crack down on disinformation By reforming a law that protects online platforms from liability for user content Should make for liability earnings. So just so you know, that's called law 230. That's what came about in the late 90s That's what allowed the earning internet the flourish So there's a big difference between someone calling for it and it actually happening So that's where we are for the earnings report. I think it's going to be a pretty interesting week Again, the bar has been set low. So hopefully We come out unscathed and we can start to build. So that's what we have. Let me just think about that in the comment section and let's talk about going long because that's I always talk about when in doubt zoom out But in all honesty, sometimes we got to zoom in to see the picture And that's what we just did right there. So now let's zoom out and see where things are going So I asked a question on twitter again If you had $10,000 and you were required to shoot between her during a in a short a long position. What would you do? And the majority of people said I'd go long sounds good. But uh, what does that mean? What does that mean as time goes on? Well, if we take a look at longer shorts, this was uh On-chain analysis from into the block and they said this traders Are holding less than a month tend to follow price action and in many cases sell it a lot So I think this really comes down to either And of course, you want to call it paper hands or weak hands or whatever you do I don't really like to use that term because I think everybody's situation is different a lot of these people Or some of these people actually might be you know Swing traders just kind of getting in and out, but it seems to be Balance held by traders the lowest value since january 18th. And of course It seems like the less time that you hold it The less profits that you actually do and now we're below january 18th as far as like a low volume as far as traders so the question then is How is that looking as far as like for the month? And this is uh one of my favorite my new favorite websites talking about for like the last 30 days or so This has been you know the cryptiverse links in the description. It's not a affiliate link You can you can check it out But on top of all these great charts that he has one is is one that I can't show you unfortunately told me not to A risk assessment and you can see just how Low or how high risk is right now I got to tell you it's I mean just between us It's pretty low as far as risk because My price is kind of tanking for a while But if you take a look at april statistically over time and of course Past performance is not indicative of future results But april was usually a pretty darn good month if we take a look at it I mean 34 in 2020 2019 the worst one before this was 2015 a negative 0.9 percent But so far to date this april has been by far The worst april that we have seen for quite some time and then also if we take a look at uh A monthly average I like to take a look If you what we're taking a look at is 90 days, let's see 90 day average So if you had bought 90 days before or three months before and then sold in this month Here's would have been your return on investment march over all time has been Statistically one of the best ones in april Pretty much the second best one, but of course now that we're looking at it not so much and um This feeds into my thesis about selling may and go away Maybe it should be selling april and go away for crypto because it seems like may june july august Yeah, a little bit of rally september then you get back around october november december For some other gains. This is where I would you know, you might want to sell and then buy again That's not financial advice. It's just what i'm doing Uh, but you can see that there's quite a dip here And if you're looking for fantastic gains in may june july statistically not so much However, if we take a look at this these are called the hodl waves Long-term holders for short-term holders. I will just say this goes back to exactly what uh into the block was saying The less you the less time you hold the more problems you have as far as like gaining Different revenue and gains so if we take a look at short-term holders It kind of follows this pattern Which is as the price goes up and the white line is what the actual price is You can see that as the price goes up The individuals that hold for a short term one week to a month They start to just follow the trend and go i'm going to buy up here at the top and they start to sell off But they sell more as it goes down, you know and just don't accumulate then they buy a bunch here when the price goes up Then down again, and that's What I think a lot of us did in the very beginning. However If we take a look at The long-term holders And this is just What this chart shows us is a month It's a three months No, that's really a long-term hold of it. Okay. You can see that. Uh, yeah, here's in 2017 As the price dips these people start to accumulate When the price goes up they sell off When the price goes down they accumulate no one price goes up they sell off and off we are But there is something interesting about this one. I found Fascinating I think there's a fine line Between people who hold or hodl for quite some time And people who just drink the kool-aid and just don't see what's in front of them. So here's what i'm talking about If we take a look at people who hold for one to two years, they did pretty darn good actually Again, you can see that they start to accumulate when the price is Price is kind of going or flattened out And then when it starts to peak which here's the price they just sell off And again as the price goes down they start to accumulate as it goes sideways This is where I make all my money actually just dollar cost averaging And then of course As it comes down here and the price starts to rise they start to sell off as the price peaks Now when it goes down same thing, that's just for people from a one year to two year But check this out if you take a look at the three year to four year people Oops is that one more time Get rid of all them sometimes it seems like When they come in here They even even right here So they actually sold off right before the peak of Now this is 2017, but then It's like they try to do it again And they came over here Oh, they did sell off forget that. No, I guess i'm hold on. There's one more. I want to show you Two years or three years Hmm Ah, yeah Oh, no, I guess I was looking at the six months of one year. So yeah, it's the same thing It seemed like the more people that hold for a longer time Of course, they buy these dips come down sell off Then they come over here They sell off as it starts to peak and now they're over here just accumulating. So I guess yeah same thing So I want to think about that in the comment section interesting that people do the same stuff Which is just accumulate and they sell off. I think that's probably the best mindset speaking of which Last story skybridge and the mooch have the right mindset and what this is is I think this is the bigger the bigger picture right now. We're not having we're not in the greatest Market as you might tell But I think in the long run will be okay. So here's what it comes down to skybridge Goes all in on crypto Betting on tremendous growth ahead. So skybridge managed a seven million dollar bitcoin fund among others Been actively working to get a spot bitcoin etf approved by the u.s. Good luck with that Scare mooch said the firm is and this is this is anthony scarimucci's firm skybridge said the firm is repositioning itself to eventually be a Leading crypto asset manager and advisor He said we made a decision during the pandemic that we had to Re-litigate our entire portfolio There's a pre-pandemic world and a post pandemic and a post-pandemic world has a lot more deficits For us we think the crypto markets represent tremendous growth. It comes with volatility But I think over there the next three to five years We like the trajectory and the question was is like I always wonder was like, why did they get into it? so heavy because You know skybridge was not a big proponent up to a couple years ago It came down to this Director of business development john darcy said that the firm's growing focus on crypto was brought About due to a huge drawdown In the credit portion of the firm's hedge fund manager portfolio meaning didn't really perform too well I think that's a lesson for I think a lot of different hedge funds out there and a lot of people getting into stocks I think they're overinflated But they still buy into it. I still think it's a very risky asset and they still treat it Some of them people treat it like a risk off. You know, it's really risk on He said what we decided to do was a portion of the capital That was previously allocated to credit managers was invested directly in the crypto like bitcoin ethereum Then they're also going to rotate capital and crypto asset managers like multi-coin polychain preterra And things of that nature So I think they're going to put their money Like I said, what their mouth is and then kind of come out ahead because I don't think There's a lot of huge tremendous gains from Equities, especially what's what's going on. Anyhow, I want you to think about that in the comment section And that concludes the stories for today. So look if you like today's video, give it a thumbs up I'll consider subscribing all things talk about our time sensitive. So that takes care of the news Wrap it up in about 19 minutes. Let's go on to five questions in five minutes And we'll get out of here and enjoy the day. So Let's take a look at The questions let me get rid of this banner It's kind of annoying All right So first up There's a good one Mark says, how does bitcoin work globally when so few own such a large percentage of it? So Really to think about it Let me show you something Let me sign in to Let me show you This is into the block and this is a on-chain analysis. So if we take a look at We'll take a look at the network stats Excuse me ownership all ownership stats And actually what we should do is take a look at bitcoin wallets. So As far as like I think the big question is is there a concentration of bitcoin and we take a look at it There's whales investors and retail investor whale and retail. So what's the difference? An address that wants more than 1% of the circulating supply bitcoin this place Would be an investor An address that owns between 0.1 And 1% of circulating supply is retail or a retail. Excuse me retail 1.1% of circulating supply So it's one of the 1% it's a whale And that's just this sliver If it's 0.1 to 1% That's an investor volume and the rest is retail And that is the majority of where things are almost 90 percent or almost 18.88 million Is in the hands of very small wallets who don't really have that much now as time goes on I think the bigger question then is You know, how does how does that actually disseminate between? The seven to eight billion people on the planet. We'll just remember. I don't people say well How's everybody gonna have one bitcoin? They're not that's what it comes down to they're not remember there's a hundred billion satoshis into one bitcoin so We've got enough satoshis. We just don't have enough one full bitcoin. That's why we're always talking about just if it's a pretty decent goal Not investment advice, but to actually own one complete whole bitcoin. I think that's the crux of it. All right, I'll answer your question Next one crypto Crypto gods the crypto market is so much fun, but I'm making me money Yeah, I was the same way was the same way as you in 2017. I didn't make anything I bought it the I bought it some highs and I just watched it all go down and I had two options I could just sell it all and just take a loss of like 60 percent Or I could just keep buying and see where things went. Luckily. I just kept buying and it worked out. Okay Uh, I'm not in the business of losing money. So I felt like well I don't know when this this train is or at what point we arrive in the destination But I think uh, this is the next evolution of money smart contracts Layer one layer two solution. So why not and worked out. Okay. I think that's where we're going to go Alpha gaping one P when will people stop using fiat and move 100 percent to crypto they won't I think you have to understand that I don't think for a while people will trust Just straight crypto for all transactions And cbdc's I think they're going to trust even less unless it's forced upon them like in china But correct me. I'm wrong I've had some people here who either have lived in china are living in china And they're using a vpm to access I won't tell on you and they say that uh, the digital you want is being rammed down their throats But a lot of people don't trust it a lot of people don't use it So even you get the news out of china that says that it's doing great and there's all this adoption The people that that uh on the show are like that that commenter like no, we don't want to use that But again, we'll see if it's getting rammed down. Let's see And then mark the same thing. I've owned bitcoin over a year. I would say a nine percent time has been in the right Yeah, that's exactly where I was That's okay You know, I think as time goes on. I'm not so much big in the red because it just feels like you're just like well You know, I got time And that's it. That's why i'm always talking about dollar cost averaging instead of dumping everything in I mean, you can dump everything in if if you Have that experience but a lot of people don't So that's why I talk about it. It's all rigged folks. Yeah, it is Alchemist is right. It is all rigged and that goes to exactly my point when I was talking about these bots That's why I like when people talk about This isn't going to be very popular but I kind of feel like a lot of traders are our gamblers I used to I lived in vegas for two years and I had a bunch of friends who were degenerate gamblers And I always ask them, you know, I say, hey, man, how how'd the weekend go? I'll grade them up like five grand. That's awesome How you doing for the year? I'm down like 30 grand But I mean like last weekend was awesome and it's like I would only hear about the good trades I mean, that's it and That's just how I see a lot of traders out there. I don't think they're very profitable they even even if they they add it all up and And subtract away from their capital gains and maybe it works for capital loss capital gain losses But I think a lot of people are in the red Just trading not everybody but I think not very many and That's why I'm always talking about well things are raking. There's a lot of Money going into making there's a lot of money going into making a lot of money in the crypto And I don't know where things are going. That's why I just say well I can't beat these bots and I can't beat the people that have unlimited resources to You know trade against me. So I'm just going to keep dollar cost averaging It seems to work out. Okay in 2018 and 19 and 20 and 21 Let's see if it works this year Yeah, ryan says martin says good institutional traders are gamblers other people's money big difference. Yeah It's true the but the thing is how long are these how long are these institutional traders How long are people going to go to these hedge fund managers, which most of them can't beat the s&p 500 It's like 90 some percent can 95 percent can't be s&p 500 So I don't understand why people keep going to them. I think it's it I personally think it's a problem with Education my brother does the same thing. I asked him personally I'm like because he's big into equities and you know that I'm like listen man. How are you? How are you dealing with this inflation and and the uh the market and he goes? Oh, I just you know I had this group that that helps me with Allocating funds I'm like what are they allocating to you I'd like to know he's like stuff I'm like what stuff he's like good stuff. I'm like translation moron. You don't know what you're talking about And he's like he's my brother so I can say that he's like. Yeah, he's like he didn't really say it in all those terms But essentially that's what it is. So yeah I think it's just people who just Don't know what to put it up And So alvio lamp lamp says hey, what about central african republic? I did a whole video about this yesterday as soon as that story broke. So We talked about the central african Republic just accepted bitcoin for legal tender We talked about how great it is and you know, it's good But I said don't get your hopes up that it's going to really Push crypto and bitcoin the next level because we took a look at the gdp in al salvador gdp is around 24 billion dollars The central african republic. It's around 2.04 billion dollars. So again, that is a it's a step in the right direction, but it's going to move the needle It hasn't so far cornucopia is any thoughts looks like a pretty good plater and game on cardano. That's all I know And uh, that's it I'll leave with this This is good crypto beats most friends are wishful thinkers when trading Actually, all well, you you got to be you got I mean you got to be as even an investor There's like larger studies showing that the kind of personal interest have is ones. I think they're smarter than everyone I think you got to kind of have that Ravado to get into trading on that. I just know The the older I get The more I realize There's so much more that I need to know and I don't know and I think that's that's the beauty of getting older you just kind of say I I think in 920. I thought I knew it all in my 30s. I had questions On my late 40s. I'm like I don't know as much as I should and there's just wait. There's just so much out there Anyhow, so that's it. So look coming up in 30 minutes like uh, I gotta get so just so you guys know that This week's gonna be a little bit different. I've got a We do a charity event for underprivileged kids. We build these obstacle courses And we pull people in And of course, it's just a 100% goes a charity. So I have to go out there and I'll be doing a little bit more more outside of work construction and things like that To get this thing going. So the times of these Events live events will be fluctuating. So just be patient with me. And then that's for this week We do the event this weekend Should help a lot of kids and then next week after That we go to london for the coin bureau events, which we get to talk about Certain things with guy And then I'll be there for like five days and then I go to italy So just be aware that uh, I won't be around for a little bit and that's what's going on So look if you like this video give it a thumbs up. If not, give it a thumbs down That's okay and consider subscribing. That's it for today. So thanks so much. I appreciate it See you on the next one. Adios