 It's very, very tough to turn around and be like, I am super bullish, right? It's just, it's very tough. Now again, you could be... Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of TheAx is a Trader.com. Nightly wrap up show, everybody's doing well. Hope everybody had a good Tuesday. So let's get into the tape. So last night's video, if you go back to last night's video, I kind of ironed out kind of an equation that it was a possibility that we could potentially take, take advantage of both sides of the market. We already knew going into today's session that the queues just in the last three sessions prior to today's, we're down 34, 35 points. That's a lot, that's really, really a ton. And the most important part was these are like cliff jumpers, right? You have one cliff jumping out, another cliff after another cliff. And, you know, we kind of ironed out an area that I believe that if we had a really big, aggressive pull down, right? At the open, there was a possibility we could have kind of tapped out, trapped some shorts. Again, if you could just go back to last night's video, you could see pretty much the last five, 10 minutes I kind of talked about my thought process going to today's session. And I believe that there was a shot that if we gap down, got trapped the shorts, had a potential, you know, moving up three, four, 500, even a thousand points considering the Dow lost, what? 1700 points in the last previous two sessions, just alone. There was just a good formula there just from the point of nothing goes straight down. There was a chance that we could have had a really big rally. We also noted that the worst thing possible that could have happened today to the bulls were if we got a gap up. And that's exactly what happened. And there was both sides of the market that could have taken advantage. And this is what I kind of wanted to see, again, if you refer to last night's video. I wanted to see the market gap up. We got the gap up based on you had a good number, really good number from Oracle. Oracle put up a 25% move. You had cloud, excuse me, you had a cloud license revenue that were up 25% with the cloud growth of 30%, which was great. It was good for the software stocks. We're good for the cloud stocks. That was very, very bullish. You also had pretty good news coming out of FedEx, right? They raised their dividend and you had a really, really big moving. So you figured all the elements are there, right? There's an element in software, excuse me, an element in technology. You've got a Dow component that is representing strength as well. This is the day, right? If this was gonna be any day that we were gonna reverse hire, this was gonna be the day because now you have technology covered, you have the old world brick and mortar, Dow Jones stocks, you got the transports covered, you got it all. Now we just have to execute. And the first step of today played out perfectly. And I basically said, look, even last night in the video, anything that gaps up is going to gap up into supply, right? It's just, again, when you have a sell-off two, three days, the more sell-offs you have, the higher probability that if there is a gap up, you're not gonna get a gap and go. There is no such thing as a gap and go in a bear market because there's not enough room. When the man levels get taken down, they become supply now. So the longer they get taken down, the higher probability they'll get rejected on the first move into supply. So if you notice the first half of all our pivots today, we're to the downside, right? This was on the gap up, everything was to the downside. So the first area of our plan was playing out. We got the gap up. Number two, we got the stuff into supply. And then you started seeing slowly but surely, stocks were taking down their previous days levels, given perfect flow. But the better part of that was, you could see how these stocks got tired. And we started seeing stocks going red to green. So I said, all right, this is playing out perfectly. There are no pivots to the upside because everything's getting crushed. Anything that goes red to green, just take, right? Again, it's one of those days, it's one of those days you become kind of brainless in your thought approach. But you say, look, if everything's getting washed out, how can you possibly wait for a pivot that's not there? Just take everything red to green, use the previous five minute low as your max paid. Obviously you're not trading a lot of size because you're going against the sentiment, against the tidal wave, but there's at least an outline of thought process that can work on both sides. And that's exactly what happened. We got the washout in the morning, that was really good, especially with Tesla. Again, we'll get to these things in a second. Shop was really good as well for all you guys that took it. I didn't take any shop, it was a little too thin for me, also on SSR. But the point is we got the washout. We got the red to green move. Now the question was, how aggressive was this rally going to be? And at one point, we got up what? About 90 points on the NASDAQ and you say this stuff, look, queues are down 34 points in the last three days. How can we not rally six, seven, eight points? And welcome to the bear market, 34 points in three days, and the queues were up today, 50 cents. Balls dropped the ball. I mean, the balls had every opportunity today, all day, literally all day today to really, really rally. And again, this is not a statement from me wearing a bear hat or a bull hat or a donkey hat, whatever hat you want to call it. This is just reality, right? This is just reality. Unless my e-signal is completely wrong with your data, you could see 34 to the downside, 50 cents to the upside. And it's very tough. Like I said, even a couple of days ago when we first lost the back to 20 day moving average and gapped the next day down, it's very, very tough to turn around and be, I am super bullish, right? It's just, it's very tough. Now again, you could go back to, you could go back to the previous, previous, previous Fed days that Powell came out, they raised some rates and we had a thousand point rally, kind of a segue to tomorrow. Is that possible? Of course it is. We've seen that over and over again from the previous Fed meetings, only to see those thousand point rallies, like exactly like we had the last one on May the 4th, being taken down the next day and getting absolutely watched. So look, is there another Fed day tomorrow? Absolutely, they're, you know, they're talking about 50 basis point, 75 basis point. We know how Powell can spur a rally in the last hour very, very quickly. But again, before we get to the last hour of what the Fed's gonna say, we still have from the 930, 930 window to about one o'clock to kind of get where we need to go. And if you go through all your charts today, it's very tough to turn around and be like, yeah, I can see a rally tomorrow, right? And here's an important point. When we did rally from the Feds for the last, you know, two, three times, whatever the case may be, keep this in mind, we didn't rally the whole day. The rally came in the last 45 minutes on one candle, right? It wasn't like organic step-by-step buying. It was literally one candle in the last half hour, 45 minutes, they painted the tape, very, very aggressively, very bullish. Unfortunately, they trapped also people into the clothes only to sell off for the next three weeks. So that's always on the table as well. But when you go through, you know, when you go through your charts today, especially through the technology sector, I mean, look, I mean, you have names like Apple, right? That again, had a shot to, you know, had a shot to rally today. It just, it didn't take out the previous days low, but I mean, this thing is like an inch away from going lower. Again, we saw 130 puts coming in again for the weeklies today. We saw 125s for next week. Name like Amazon just cannot get out of its own way, right? Just look at this thing. This thing ever since the split, it's gotten rejected here into the 200 day and it's got just straight down. Again, it had a chance that I took Amazon today, red to green. The thing went up 50 cents, literally 50 cents. And again, I get it, 50 cents times 20, right? Pre-split is at least $10, but that doesn't work that way anymore. You're not doing 20 times the size on Amazon. It's just the way it works. You're trying to take the same size of Amazon that you would take probably trading Apple. So the only damn thing only went up 50 cents and then reverse back to red. So there's a lot of sellers still, a lot of sellers and they don't care how, quote unquote, oversold we are. Again, oversold is just, you know, it's the mind of the beholder. The last, right now, Amazon closed at 102.31. This is fair value. You can't tell me fair value is 180 if it closed at 102, this is fair value. So the bull is going to need to do a lot of work guys, really a lot of work not to, not to shut the bed, right? Is that the best way of saying it? Not, you know, not to soil the bed. And right now, you know, it's very, very tough. You know, unless you're trading for cashflow and that's exactly what we're trying to do, at least especially on the upside, it's very, very tough to get excited if you are an intraday trader and you're trading on the upside. Again, is there going to be opportunity tomorrow? I'm sure there's something, right? There's something going to be to the upside. Like I like this dawn. I like this little dawn, right? Had a big move. This is the highest close in this formation. Watch this thing for tomorrow. Again, I know this is not beta. This is not something I'd watch, but I kind of like this chart. You know, you had a day of rest and this is the highest close. You know, this thing could wake up tomorrow, but names, for example, like Tesla, right? Names, for example, like Tesla got rejected off yesterday's highs, you know, again, we're still watching the bottom of the range here. Names, for example, like shop, just, again, it's taking its cue from Amazon. Just can't rally. You look at a name, for example, let me see which had the big option flow today. Give me a second. You take a name, for example, like Airbnb, right? Like Airbnb had monster, monster, monster September and October, you know, 90 puts coming in, 75 puts coming in, out of nowhere. You're talking about seven figure bets coming in, you know, $10, $15 out of the money. So again, you can see the institutional money is still on the side of the bear. And again, for the bulls to really get going, you're really gonna need number one to reclaim back this oldest area right here. And they really need to reclaim at least, at least 315 on the cues. And, you know, we closed today at 275. So again, there's not really a lot of spin that you could possibly go to the upside. And when you look at all the other asset classes, and this is kind of really shows you kind of what's happening in the global marketplace. You got Ethereum down to 1,100, you got Bitcoin down to 21,000, you know, they're liquidating, they're liquidating assets of all classes. You got equities being liquidated, you have Bitcoin liquidated, again, I have no idea anything to do with the NFT market, but I'm assuming, right, the same people who are in crypto, there's pretty much the same people who are in NFTs, I'm sure it's losing value itself. If I'm wrong, please correct me. But the point is right now, it's just not a great time for the bull. There's definitely opportunity to the downside every single day. And the most important part is watching the order flow and seeing where the institutional money flow is based. So let's talk about today's session. The morning primarily was to the downside. Here was, you know, here was Tesla. We actually caught a sneaky pivot off this 647. It was the pre-market area that held three times, but it doesn't matter. 644, if it builds below, can flush. Here was Tesla. It's here, let me show you the 647 that we did it on. Okay, let me just show you the 647, so choppy. Okay, you see these two candles here? Right, 647 and a quarter was low here. 647 was low here. So when this candle took out 647, not only did it take out 647, it took out the previous days low and went right to 635, not a bad trade. Tesla was also a sneaky pivot back to the upside. It's 660 that actually went to almost 680 in the previous days, previous days high, but you know, not a bad move at all. Netflix only went down a few points. Netflix only went down a few points on the downgrade. I still like this thing. Apple got saved today. I really like this pivot below 3144, it would trade at 3148. Shop got hit, there was literally no, there was really no upticks at all in shop. 311 and 308, if it builds below, can flush. Unfortunately, I just didn't take any shop myself. It just trades a little too thin, especially on SSR. Maybe tomorrow it'll be a little different, but it took out the 11, it took out the eight, went all the way down to 297. I still like it tomorrow. Hopefully it'll be off SSR. And the video went down about two bucks. Microsoft, you know, what the hell did Microsoft do today? I know it was strong, I know it finished the day green, but why did Microsoft do it? Yeah, it never took out, that's why I didn't see it. It never took out the 4150. It stopped perfectly at yesterday's low. That's the key. It's always got to take out the previous days low to kind of make any sense. Zoom never got below 102. Oracle, so funny, Oracle never got above the 73 for the pre-market highs. Dawn, I really like this, Dawn, keep an eye on this thing tomorrow. And I believe that is it. Yeah, I believe that's it. So, you know, I think tomorrow, you know, you might have a very quiet morning session just because people are going to be kind of focusing on the Fed. I think the real day is probably going to start after two o'clock, after Powell stops talking. But again, always keep this in mind. You know, stocks go up all the time, right? Even in the worst environment, they go up. But there's a difference, like I've been saying for years, there's a difference between a stock going up and a stock that's going higher, right? Every stock throughout the day has a shot to go up. And that's where we have to concentrate tomorrow. You know, I'm watching the same stocks over and over again. I'm just watching their levels below. I want to see more clues before the Fed meeting, after the Fed meeting, I kind of want to just kind of get out the way and let, you know, see 3PO and R2 Detail and the rest of the robots kind of do their thing. We should be done by then, but we'll see. You know, we'll see. Again, we're just taking it one day at a time, just continuing to grab data as we go along the way. Again, we're not bulls, we're not bears, we're realists. Guys, have a great night, God bless. I will see you all tomorrow.