 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Week zero is here college football is back into this time to once again Talk some college football here on covering the spread and who better to do that for us than Dr. Ed Feng of the power egg we're gonna get him back here on today to break down week zero and get you ready for the start of the 2023 season this is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and over on Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a digital media managing editor for a Fandall research Joined here as mentioned by Dr. Ed Feng you can find his work at the power bank comm Check him out on Twitter at the power and can add college football is back. That is so sweet to say. How you doing today? I'm doing great. I'm really looking for the college football season a little Notre Dame versus Navy Across the pond and yeah, it should be awesome looking forward to a week zero I was gonna wear my hat from Dublin last year, but I've still got the Northwestern gear in time out for I Guess indefinitely. I don't know we'll figure out what it can be revived like the bobble heads are up here but like The hat seems like too much so even though it has like the Dublin logo on it So I could celebrate that way. I feel like I need another like Month or two before we slowly put the purple back on I feel like you can put the purple back on late September Okay, so I would say first wave but that might mean 2024 so It's we'll determine the time might eventually we can have a wager on whether they're gonna win a game this this year I can have the the under on point five personally I'll I'll I'll skew that direction. You have a little side that we talked about that after the show Very happy. They waited until I moved back to Chicago to become a total poop show. So that's a True delight right there. Luckily, we're focusing on happier things this week Notre Dame as you mentioned to playing Navy Over in Ireland. We've also got USC and a game at taking on San Jose State this weekend We'll talk about those games specifically We're gonna break down Ed's betting model for college football for Listers who may be new to the show and also maybe talk some futures before we get into week zero All coming up today But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast talking more EPL tomorrow with Austin Cass Getting ready for match week number three JJ Zachary Some talking season-long player props with us on Friday here on the show when all these shows go up Not just on the covering the spread podcast fee But also on the fan dual youtube page and over on fan dual tv plus which you can now get on desktop mobile By going to fan dual comm slash watch if you don't have amazon fire apple tv or oku You can now watch fan dual tv plus getting up and atoms there So watch the fan dual account Be going to fan dual comm Slash watch get ready for the nfl season with incredible offers from fan dual america's number one sports book right now new customers Get bet five dollars and get two hundred dollars in bonus bets guarantee plus all customers who bet five dollars We'll get one hundred dollars off nfl sunday ticket from youtube and youtube tv Now is the best time to join fan dual the app is easy to use and you can be on everything From spreads to player props and more fan dual official partner of the nfl must be 21 plus and president select states Fan dual is offering online sports waging in kansas under an agreement with kansas star casino llc First online real money wager only ten dollar first deposit required Bonus issued is non with trouble bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt Restricts his applies to terms at sportsbook dot fan dual dot com gambling problem Call 1 800 gambler or was the fan dual dot com slash rg in colorado iowa michigan new jersey ohi pennsylvania illinois tennessee in virginia call 1 800 next step or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in arizona 1 888 789 7777 or visit ccpg dot or excess chat in connecticut 1 109 with it in indiana 1 805 224 700 to visit ks gambling health dot com in kansas 1 877 770 stop in louisiana visit empty gambling health dot orc in maryland visit 100 gambler dot net in west virginia Call 1 800 5 224 700 in wyoming hope is here visit gambling helpline ma dot orc or call 800 327 50 50 for 24 7 support in massachusetts or call 1 877 8 hope and wire text open y in new york nfl sunday ticket offer ends 9 18 23 no refunds terms and embargoes reply 100 off nfl sunday ticket Not youtube tv youtube tv base plan required to watch youtube tv Redemption requires a google account and current from a payment commercial use is excluded Now let's dive in here to college football week number zero and get kind of a broad umbrella Based discussion you're going first because ed probably got some new listeners first time college football listeners here on the show So I wanted to go talk holistically with you. You've got your college football betting model What's the spine of that model and how does it kind of work from a broad perspective? Right now we're in the preseason and the main component there is a market model So my code takes market wind totals and it will back out a rating for each team so for example You know if georgia's at the top of those numbers right now. I think they're about 30 points better than fbs average so The model essentially says there that If georgia were to play an average fbs team, they would be you know on a neutral site They would be predicted to win by 30 so so the real you know the thing there is like, you know, you have to back out that rating From the wind total and that obviously depends on what each team's schedule is So that is worked into there and then obviously all the wind totals are connected And you need to account for that as well. So things have to change together And yeah, I've found that to be a really powerful predictor My model always does pretty well in the first Couple weeks of the season actually that that alone Does pretty well the first couple weeks of the season So I look to that to give me a sense for Um You know what what the spread should be in these early season games And then we do a little handicapping on top of that because college football is a difficult market to beat and we go from there I think the benefit of having that market model is especially apparent You know in these years where we got the transfer portal across college football and A market will probably be better able to encapsulate that than a player level model or than anything except for a player level model But like realistically running a player level model for every fbs team Gonna be pretty tough So I feel like the advantage of your method is even bigger nowadays than it would have been previously, correct For sure the transfer portal information should certainly be in uh in in those market wind totals, right? So if uh, if the market is off on a team, uh, because they're underestimating the impact of some transfers some high level transfers coming in um then Then the market should be able to account for that and I should have a pretty good estimate I think a really good example of that is uh, colorado So this is a team that was awful last year and then dion sanders has come in now and Really done a pretty interesting thing in eliminating all of the team So, you know, it used to be that if you had eight transfers that was like a big deal And how do you account for that? Well, there's 50 transfers, uh, you know on this 85 man roster and that's a huge Huge change. So how do you account for that? Like anytime you actually run some models based on how Colorado has done over the past Four years. So that's, you know, simple things that I've done in the past on my site You're going to get an answer that colorado is going to be really bad this year But that's not what the markets think, uh, you know, betters have bet up that colorado wind total. Um I don't remember exactly what the number is But when you back out their rating and you look at their rank over 133 teams now in fps New colorados in the 80s somewhere. So they're like 80th and that's a number that's kind of hard to come up with if you're just doing the math Um, it's it's hard. It's hard to come up with uh, because of just all those changes. It's kind of an unprecedented experiment So that's just one example of the power of of using the markets here and uh, it is going to account for that And colorado is an example Uh, they are the most pertinent example. We've seen in a very long time obviously with regards to the advantage of that now You mentioned that early in the season the market derived model will be the way to go It's a very successful model and stuff like that Throughout the year, obviously you're going to shift to factoring in in season data So when you look at an in season data, if someone's trying to analyze college football, obviously not now But like down the line What data do you use to form like the statistical level model? Obviously without giving away everything But like, you know, what data are you focusing on that you think matters when analyzing college football once we actually have some of that data For sure, and this will start after week zero I'll start adjusting some of these teams, you know, because uh, you know a team like hawaii is going to play Week one after playing week zero game, uh against vanderbilt. I'll start making those adjustments immediately It's all the usual suspects that that we've been talking about on the show for a long time simple things Things as simple as margin victory and games things a little bit more complicated like success rate on offense and defense Yards for play is something that goes in there and and I use a little bit of market data in there these closing point spreads as well So that all goes to update, uh, this college football model It'll start week zero right after week zero like my predictions for week one will look different for those teams that played uh week zero So, uh, yeah, it updates and you have to update pretty quickly. Uh, things change in college football I remember, uh, seeing a couple bookmakers last year post, you know The teams that were 10 points different in their ratings from their preseason Uh expectation and there were a lot of them and because that happens and you know We'll see who what examples will be this year of who falls or who rises, you know, who gets a Player that just uh ends up being unbelievable and really elevates program Well speaking, so you you need to make those changes and and I do do that in my numbers Speaking of potential changes, let's talk about this first game in week number zero It is over in Dublin We have navy taking on and notar dame notar dame right now 20 and a half point favorite total here is 49 and a half notar dame Dip into the transfer portal to get sam hartman as a quarterback for this year So before I talk about this game specifically add What is your broad outlook for notar dame heading into 2023 with our new quarterback? I think notar dame is a is a pretty high variance team. I think, uh, you know, we we know sam hartman Was very good at wake force. They were actually fifth when you look at passing six That's right adjusted for opponent. That's excellent. Uh, he was really good They put up a lot of points He decided to go to a bigger program and he's he's certainly going to elevate Uh, the the passing offense even though the passing offense kind of wasn't as bad as as the perception was last year Marcus freeman is entering his second year as the head coach the first year had its ups and downs Uh, he had some injuries at the quarterback position The defense wasn't as good as as it was when he was coordinator. So so that was an issue too Um, there's a lot of pieces on defense. Um, there's a lot of blue chip prospects at the receiver position for hartman to throw to I kind of see this as a pretty high variance team. Um, you know, if hartman's great and marcus freeman Can really figure out a lot of things in year two as a head coach Uh, I feel like this team could be really good. Obviously the schedule is really hard. They have game against ohio state normal games against usc A lot of acc competition clumps in Uh, but but I think if you're a fighting irish fan, you have a lot of reasons to be optimistic this this upcoming season Yeah, the word high variance can sometimes be taken with a negative connotation But high variance can be good if it means you can hit the high end of range of outcomes And I think that having better quarterback play is what could allow Notre Dame to do that now in this game 29 outpoint favorites in double and taking on navy What's your read on how you see this game playing out in? Right. So my model actually has this uh, Notre Dame by almost 22 and a half I do think Notre Dame is the right side here navy is uh part of ways with a long time coach They promoted the defensive coordinator um As a new coach team that really struggled on the offensive side of the ball was decent on defense last year But still not they were a lot better against the run uh, then they were against the pass and You know, it was a unit that was 78th when I look at passing success rate adjuster for Opponents on that navy defense Uh, I think it is a unit. I mean they do bring a lot of their secondary back So it could get better But probably not a unit that can deal with the athletes that Notre Dame is going to bring I think sam hartman is probably going to be pretty pretty awesome in this game. Um to show That uh, you know that that he really is the guy here. So I do think this is one that Notre Dame Um can run away with and uh, I actually like them on the side here All right, and that side is as mentioned Notre Dame 20 and a half point favorites at vandal sportsbook The 20 and a half is minus 110 as of right now Other game we want to focus on here for week numbers zero is san jose say taking on usc USC is a 30 and a half point favorite here total is 66 and a half and We talked about usc a couple weeks ago ed and you said they would be an over team this year due to their off defense But also because of kala williams now back in worth two ways because if you got kala williams It's easier to cover a large spread. It's easier to cover a large spread when the total is super high, but It also may be tough to keep the opposing team off the board Which is required to cover 30 and a half point spread too. So when you look at this defense Do you think that they're capable of covering a 30 and a half point spread? Uh with the defense the way it is or is the offense good enough to justify that big of a number? I really don't know. I think there's so many questions about this usc defense that was like awful I think they were in the 90s when you look at sess rate adjusted for opponent They actually were we were able to create a lot of turnovers early in the season And that made them seem a little bit better than they were and then you know the UCLA game happened and I mean they were just I mean it was that was kind of one of the most unbelievable oley defenses that I've that I've ever seen they were really really bad and um Yeah, I mean they have a lot of they have a lot of questions that that they need to answer I'm kind of not betting usc until we get some early returns on the defense. My model Has usc by 32 points here I'm gonna wait to see uh how the defense performs. Um, I really don't know. I I think they they could be better Uh, you know, I mean if if if it's a top 25 unit, which is I think unlikely given where this unit's coming from Uh, they could be certainly national championship contenders with what they do on the offensive side of ball More realistic like can they get the fbs average from the 90s? I think that's probably more realistic and um So, yeah, I don't really know what to think of it. Uh, another thing about this total I think it seems a little bit low to me. Uh, I actually don't have a model for totals right now It it seems a little bit low, but I don't think usc overs are quite Quite the the automatic bets that a lot of people think they are You know, Lincoln Riley will run fast and and put a lot of offense up when In the first half when that when the game is contention The offense tends to slow down a little bit in the second half He's not really uh looking to put more points on the board when the game is out of question And that makes some of these these I mean, you know, this is not exactly the highest total of the world, but um Don't don't all about the usc over. I think you need to have Uh a better reason than that Simply because of this this these kind of pace changes that that Lincoln Riley does so I would be cautious about that Yeah, I think that's important to consider is what they do when they're up big when the the spread is 30 and a half And that is the case here and other thing to consider is let's say empathetically The game is closer in the second half, uh where they could run that high pace that probably implies the offense wasn't doing a whole lot in the first half So there are multiple paths to an under here Which means I agree with you where even though it does seem a bit light at six six and a half It may make sense to stay away get more data same thing with the spread there at 30 and a half Even though you are showing value there potentially holding off and seeing what more we can get with regards to usc Now this is week zero ed. So we're gonna get some data here for this week We'll get some uh some games week one next week as well But it's also a final chance to lock in any futures before we get to the 2023 season So when you're looking there anything you're trying to lock in at this time over fandal sportsbook One thing I've been looking at one thing. I've actually bet is a highs in the vet I like the camera rising the the quarterback at utah and this this guy has been incredible You know two years ago. Charlie Brewer the transfer from Baylor started the season and he was kind of bad and camera rising took over And really led that offense Really kind of revitalized that offense and 2022 he was also pretty good when you look at the numbers There the utah's past offense was 13 when I look at 13th in the nation when I look at passing rate Adjusted for strength of schedule. He's also a threat with his legs He's run for over 400 yards over the last two seasons I think that Okay, so he hurt his knee in the rose ball and I've been following that all off season He's still questionable for this opening game against florida. I think that's part of the reason you've seen that spread drop a little bit In week one If camera rising were perfectly healthy I would bet him 30 to 1 to win the heisman. I think he's that good awful player I bet him. I think I got 65 to 1 On fandal. I think that's the number. I got it at fandal So that's that's a bet that I have from a month ago Maybe a little bit more. I really like him as a player. I really like what You know, some of the pieces that he has on the offense. You're really getting a discount right now at 80 to 1 Because of this injury and now I and I think like, you know, he might be a little bit He's listed as questionable right now. They're still bringing him back. I gotta think he plays against florida That's such a big game to open the season And you're getting a discount right now. So, um, you know, I still like this vet camera Rising to win the heisman. I think you're getting a discount because of the injury And I think that the benefit there too is if he does play for that game That's probably one of the bigger higher profile games across week one in college football So if he does play That can be like your spotlight moment right away to begin that momentum of winning an award like this media Which is a very important thing to have Absolutely. Yeah, no, it's a huge game and and they're going to have a lot of uh, you know They're going to have usc on their schedule a little bit later. They're going to have their their chances to shine um I know how a little bit crazy What it's like to think uh that a utah quarterback is going to win the heisman, but Rising really is that good? Right and that team is good too, which matters for this kind of award as well to keep them relevant throughout the year Keep them in games and keep their games being important and getting national attention. Okay So cam rising 80 to 1 Ed is liking that right now over at fangirl sportsbook That's all we have here for week number zero But edley with us every single week here on wednesday talking college football on thursdays as well talking nfl So ed is back to happy with us twice per week here on the show once again If people want to find your work find some five nugget saturday anything else work may find all that Yeah, thanks jim. Maybe you can find uh my newsletter at the powerink.com I do do five nugget saturday, which basically if you're looking for some action any given weekend That's your place to go comes out 10 a.m. Every saturday And uh, so check that out at the powerink.com. You can also get a lot of my content on the football analytics show in audio form That's my podcast. I've decided this year uh to put Like the newsletters that make sense Five nugget saturday is a little bit too time sensitive to put on there But the newsletters that make sense to go in in audio format Will also go on the podcast. So i'm pretty excited about that, you know, i'm just trying to make it easier for people to consume what i have to say Whether you want to read or listen So check out the football analytics show. That's my podcast Alrighty find that by searching for the football analytics show check out ed's work at the powerink.com and find him on twitter At the powerink. I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also find fandal research by searching for add fandal research back with you once again tomorrow To break down e pl match week number three. This has been covering the spread right here on the fanduel podcast network