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TED-Ed's Frog Riddle Is Wrong

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Published on Mar 8, 2016

TED-Ed presented a riddle last week based on a classic probability problem. However in the riddle there is a small and seemingly insignificant detail that changes the calculation. In this video I present the pertinent details of the frog riddle, explain its connection to the boy or girl paradox, and then do a detailed calculation of what I believe is the correct probability.

TED-ED frog riddle: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cpwSG...

Blog post (another calculation if the probability a male frog croaks is p): http://wp.me/p6aMk-4wD

Ron Niles made a video that shows the probability visually and explains an interpretation of a male frog croaking with probability p: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K53P5...

If you like my videos, you can support me at Patreon: http://www.patreon.com/mindyourdecisions

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