 You know, it's going to be at least a question, a fair question, that tomorrow can Facebook. Is Facebook going to be enough, right, to get the bulls partying up? Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access a Trader dot com nightly wrap up show. Hope everybody is doing well. I've got a quick update and then I have to go to a couple of basketball games. So let's talk about it. So last night, you know, when I was recording the video, Microsoft was down five points after the after the close, you had Google down like a hundred and change. And my whole thing was obviously recorded the video before Microsoft had a reversal, but my whole thing was, let's see if the bulls can reclaim that 317 area for a possible dead cab balance, right? We're still in the sell bias market. We obviously acknowledge that. But again, like I've been saying, the market doesn't go straight down, the market doesn't go straight up. There's obviously nuances in between that kind of change gear for a split second and then obviously the trend removes and you got to give the bulls some credit, right? Microsoft was definitely the catalyst today, you know, had a pretty good reversal today. You know, nice move, you know, nice move today up 13 points. But again, if you look at where Microsoft was just, you know, a month ago, you're talking about, you know, 15, 20 points out of where it is today, Microsoft all did today was trade back into daily supply and get rejected. And the key was, and the question was, you know, can the markets, can Microsoft kind of bring the market at least back to life for a little bit of a dead cat balance that we talked about? And, you know, it lasted for like two hours, two, three hours. You started seeing very, very quickly stocks just, just they weren't rallying. They just couldn't rally. There's a big difference between a really aggressive rally when you have above the 50 day moving average versus a dead cat balance below the 50 day moving average. And the one thing I keep on reiterating, especially for new traders, like, you know, kind of put this on a sticky note. I mentioned this before in the past, you know, many, many times, but the most basic thing, you know, the difference between a dead cat balance and a rally. Okay. A dead cat balance comes off of any single level. Okay. And it doesn't make a difference why it's rallying. Again, maybe it's deemed oversold or overextended or maybe just too much too fast, whatever the case may be, but it oversold balance just happens, right? It's a balance. A rally happens, or at least a short term or a longer term set up for a rally, always happens when the market and ETF or an index or individual equity takes out the previous day's highs and builds off those highs. And if you look at every single day since we've gotten rejected off the 50 day moving average or started building below, or just in the last four days, you can clearly see, even despite today's rally attempt up 160 points at one point, 170 points today on the Nasdaq, which finished flat, by the way, a little bit right on the day, you can see they never took out the previous day's high and then previous day never took out the previous day's high and the previous day never took out the previous day's high and all along is just trending down below the five day moving average, which is the shortest term sentiment. And, you know, coming into today's session, you know, it was very, very hard for me to get excited about anything on the long side. We'll get to the pivots individually in the pivot. The only, realistically, the only pivot today that was to the upside was Microsoft. Literally Microsoft, everything else was to the downside and everything came in pretty aggressively and we'll talk about that in a second. But more important is what's happening after the close, right? So today and tomorrow, we have some pretty big earnings. Today, obviously, Facebook, which had a very interesting day. There was a Bloomberg report, okay, just to give an idea. There was a Bloomberg report in the middle of the day that somehow picked up on the guidance from the previous quarter and they slammed, they absolutely slammed Facebook down in the middle of the day. Okay. And people then realized, well, wait a minute, this is an erroneous report and kind of stabilized a little bit, stabilized the market, stabilized everything else. And then after the close, Facebook came out with earnings. And again, there was not a lot of enthusiasm ahead of this quarter. But the point is when you have no expectations, very, very tough to have any disappointments. And as you can see here, Facebook knocked it out of the park. They did, when you have very, very low expectations, you got a pretty good idea. As long as they don't announce chapter 11, you're gonna have a nice move. You got an 18% move after the stock has been absolutely annihilated this year and even going back into the fourth quarter of last year. And you got a pretty good move. You got a really nice move on Qualcomm as well. You got about a 5%, 6% move on Qualcomm as well. One name that is not doing anything is TDOC. And TDOC is another byproduct of what we saw was the euphoria of the stay-at-home movement. If you guys notice, what do these stocks all have in common? Once people started going back to work and the country and the world started opening up their doors, all the names that had big, big runs during COVID, the zooms of the world, dead, the Netflix of the world, dead, right? The, what is it? What was the other one? TDOC obviously died tonight. You got Docu, right? You got Docu, dead. So very limited, very limited optimism going forward into this kind of the whole space. And obviously TDOC down like 38% today after the close and this thing probably will drift into the 20s at some point in the next two, three weeks. But again, very, very big aggression. PayPal is another name reported tonight. Again, not a lot of emphasis, right? Not a lot of, you know, not a lot of, you know, optimism going into this quarter, you know, barely up. Yeah, maybe up a buck and change or so as well. So, you know, the question going into tomorrow, which can Facebook do what Microsoft couldn't do today, right? Can Facebook get this market at least to be to have the ability to give a strong dead cat bounce, right? You know, it's very, very tough to get excited about going into tomorrow though, you have some pretty big earnings and, you know, are they going to buy and position these stocks ahead of earnings, right? You have, what do we got until tomorrow? We got, let's see, we got full calendar. We got tomorrow some pretty big numbers. You got Roku on deck for tomorrow. If you are a Netflix streaming person, you kind of look at Netflix earnings and go, uh-oh, right? They came today with some pretty decent size for the $80 puts ahead of tomorrow's quarter. Amazon, Amazon is going to be one of the two biggies for tomorrow. Some guy came in for the 30, 50 calls ahead of earnings tomorrow. And we've seen, you know, we've seen bets all over the place. This is obviously going to be a big tone setter, right? For Friday session, obviously Apple is going to be the mother of all mothers because this is the one that has the most weight in the NASDAQ 100. So tomorrow is obviously going to be a big earnings day, but it's going to be very, you know, it's going to be at least a question, a fair question that tomorrow can Facebook. Is Facebook going to be enough, right? To get the bulls partying up at least for one day. When you look after the close, yeah, everything is up, right? The same way everything was down on yesterday's initial Google report, everything is up on Facebook. You know, you have Tesla up, you have Amazon up, you have Google recovering 30, 40 bucks. So, you know, there's a little bit of optimism, but as we see all the time, and I commented this, this is literally, if you go my regular Twitter feed, I literally, this is my first tweet of the day. Let me just, I'm not even going to paraphrase it. You know, here's my literally my first tweet of the day. Keep this in mind, we're in a sell bias, right? We're in a sell market underneath the 50 day moving average, okay? So, you know, the one thing you don't want to do, right? The one thing you don't want to do, you don't want to chase strength into a sell bias environment, right? This is just not something that it's prudent. And anybody who bought the gap up today on the Microsoft strength, they got crushed. You know, the market went down, the queues went down three separate times today. And my first tweet of the day is, this gap up is not what the bulls needed. If you guys remember last night's video, we talked about, we needed a washout, right? A washout reclaim of the 317 level and rally. Instead, you know, I wrote this morning, I go, this gap up is not worth, is not what the bulls needed. I'm going to sit back patiently, wait for downside channels to develop. I'm okay, I'm missing a gap and go. I go, that is the discipline. Good morning. And that's exactly what happened today. Market got, you know, just gapped up and got hit. I mean, if you look at, excuse me, there was two, two pivots to the upside, right? Two pivots to the upside today. Everything else was to the downside. Everything else, you know, again, was it a huge day? No, but the point is there was some pretty solid pivots despite the market being up 130, 150, 170, all day on the Nasdaq. You can still see people selling stocks, really didn't care. And if you look at the majority of the beta names, they were pretty much all red ahead of the Facebook earnings, which basically, you know, it's basically doesn't give you a lot of confidence that the market could sustain. Now, again, can that be totally different going into tomorrow? Maybe, you know, maybe Facebook is the night, right? Is the night in shining armor that could finally save the day, at least give the bulls a little bit of breathing room going into Amazon and Apple's earnings. And maybe they can kind of send this over the goal line. But for now, you have to, you know, you have to give, you know, you have to give reserve a little bit of doubt. Because again, what's the difference between Microsoft reporting good earnings and Facebook reporting earnings, right? They stuffed the whole rally today on Microsoft. Why is Facebook any different, right? And maybe you can hashtag it. Well, this time is different. We'll see, right? We don't know, I can't guess, but we'll see. So let's talk about today's session. Hasbro, again, one of the only two pivots we had to the upside today. Hasbro, $90 is still big area, needs to build. Mattel had some chatter this morning. So maybe wakes up, right? So here's Hasbro, not a big move, but again, you didn't expect a big move. So here's the 90 build and it traded right into the daily supply of 91.50. Again, not a huge move, but this is not a beta name. Again, you know, beta moves 10, 15, 20, $30, right? Everything else doesn't, but nice, this move. Again, beggars can't be chooses when you're trading to the upside in the sell bias market. DDOG, I'm still watching, never triggered. Letter U, nice move on Letter U. 73 is a short 314 lows of builds below can flush. Here was Letter U, right? Nice base here on Letter U. It took out this 314 lows of 73, closed right at the lows today at 68 and change. This thing looks lower, really, really strong move on, quote, unquote, potential update for the bulls. Again, you can see where the value is. The value is still on the downside, despite any green arrows. Game stop, not a big move at all. 126 of the builds below can flush, only went down $1 and rallied up a couple of points. Wolf got hit, 95, 50, 96, if it builds below can flush. Here is Wolf, right? Here is Wolf. It took out the 95, 60, 95, 60, 95, traded right to the lows. I just scalped this thing. It's a little too thin for me. I just scalped this thing, traded all the way down to 92, should get down to about 88. I have no more position in this thing. Crowd, 201, if it builds below can flush. $2, $3 pushed down on crowd. Here's the 201 went down to 198, before it stabilized a little bit, again, still closed below the 50-day moving average, still should get down to about 96 on the first move. TTD, 58, if it builds below can flush. Here is TTD, right? 58 closed right at the lows of 57. I still like this thing lower. As you can see, again, there's a lot of really good value. Now, again, not every trade needs to be $20, but there's a lot of really good value. Last night, I was completely blind. I couldn't find, remember last night, I couldn't find the pivot. I go, what, did I not put it into the pivot? Yeah, I did. That's the whole point. So, this was yesterday. This was yesterday in the morning. Inside day, after the earnings, 250, that's where we got short and still short. A little piece left. 250, 249 needs to build for the next move down. And today was the confirmation, right? Here's the confirmation. Under 244 should see more selling. Beautiful move. A really, really nice move on ISRG, two-day move. So, here is the 50, here is the 44, closed today right at the lows at 235. I think there's one more push down on this thing. If you look at the weekly trend line, I think this thing could get down to like, maybe, you know, between, I think 28. I think if it gets down to this 328 level tomorrow, I'd be pleased with the move. But really nice move. Again, you can see the value. After stock blows up, just a matter of time, it's gonna start its next move up. Microsoft, here's literally the only, for the exception of Haswell, the only upside pivot. The first move, 285.50, rejected four times, needs to build. The first move was only like a dollar in change, right? Here's a dollar in change. Here's the 85.50, right? First move was only like a dollar in change and then it came in and then it rallied up another two. But again, again, not a lot of juice in this tape to the upside, especially when stocks are trading into supply. Letter U, here comes 70. Here comes the 240 handles gone, 235 on deck. In case we rally, blah, blah, blah, and it came nowhere close to that. I'm actually watching Tesla again to the downside tomorrow. You know, it didn't rally today after this majestic, majestic candle down. I'm telling you folks, if this candle confirms down, you got a lot of room coming tomorrow. Remember, keep this in mind, they were betting heavy. Heavy, heavy, heavy yesterday for the 8.50 weeklies. So that looks good for tomorrow as well. Let me see what else I want to share with you guys for tomorrow that I like. I like match.com, look at match.com, putting in a bearish flag. Yeah, I like DDOG still. I like this DDOG still. Again, they came for the 110 weeklies. I want to watch this channel here as well. So again, look, again, I'm still sell buys. There's no way in hell on God's green earth. I'm ever chasing as any strength as you saw today. Anybody who bought anything with technology got stuffed right at the open. If the market's going to rally tomorrow, if the market is going to dead cat bounce, which again, I'm having a lot of doubt considering we're still where we are in the cycle. But again, they need to at least put an opening range highs and those opening range highs needs to at least confirm by 10 o'clock on the first channel. Other than that, you're guessing. Other than that, you're chasing a candle and hoping today's the day for the reversal. Again, we all acknowledge stocks don't go straight down but the value continues to beat the downside. Guys, remember no video tomorrow. If you are planning to join us, please watch the workshops. It's so important you understand the moving parts. We're the only ones that literally trade these pivots and this matter, you can't find this kind of on YouTube or anywhere else. So very, very important if you are joining us, please watch the workshops part one and part two. We'll give you the definitely breakdown of what this is, what this isn't and most important is why it's so important to understand the moving parts. Guys, God bless everybody. Have a great, great Thursday, awesome Friday and I will see you all on the weekend video. Take care.