 Hey everyone, this is Dan with a new episode of a Moderna analysis. If you have been following Moderna, you know that the stock went up a lot in 2021 because of the COVID vaccine. The stock price reached the peak of 497 in August of 2021, then dropped more than 75% in the next six months because the COVID pandemic started to fade. A couple of weeks ago on December 13, the news came out that the melanoma vaccine that Moderna jointly developed with Merck turned out to be quite promising in the Phase 2 trials. The stock price then jumped up about 20%. Will Moderna continue to go up? Is it a good time to buy Moderna again? I just did my fundamental and technical analysis on Moderna and would like to share with you what I found. Stay tuned, we have a lot of interesting stuff to cover. First, let's look at how the stock price has been trending in the last couple of years. Moderna peaked at $497 a share in August of 2021, then dropped significantly. We see the recent rebound. The red line here is the S&P 500 ETF SPY. The blue line here is the NASDAQ 100 ETF QQ. Since October 1 of this year, SPY has been up 7%. QQQ has been up only 0.47%. But Moderna is up an impressive 69%. We can see the big jump here on 12.13 when the news came out about the cancer vaccine. Here's more information on the cancer vaccine. When combined with the immunotherapy drug Catruda made by Merck, the Moderna vaccine reduced the risk of recurrence of melanoma by 44%, which is very impressive. According to American Cancer Association, about 99,780 melanoma cases will be diagnosed in 2022. If the cost of treatment is only $10,000 per case, actually the cost could be higher, much higher, the total spending will be about $1 billion a year, which is quite substantial. There's more. Once the Moderna vaccine is approved for treating melanoma, it will very possibly be expanded to treating other types of cancer, just like how Catruda has been used to treat more and more types of cancer in the last couple of years. Catruda can be used to treat the following types of cancer, including lung cancer, bladder cancer, skin cancer, and by the way, melanoma is a form of skin cancer, head and neck cancer, and so on and so forth. Merck's 2021 Catruda revenue was $17.2 billion. We will later use this number as a reference for evaluating the potential stock price of Moderna. So let's talk this number in the back of our mind, $17.2 billion. If you think this is helpful information for you, I'd like to suggest that you click the like, subscribe, and notification button. It will allow you to receive notification when I post my next video. It will also encourage me to make more videos like this in the future. Thank you very much. Let's continue. We have a lot of interesting stuff to cover. This is a chart showing the quarterly revenue of Moderna, which is mainly due to the COVID vaccine. The chart here shows the EPS earning per share for each quarter. We can see that both the revenue and EPS have been declining for the last three quarters. The reason why is, of course, because the COVID pandemic has been fading. The last bar here is for the third quarter of 2022. I'm showing here the new COVID cases and deaths for the entire world and for the US. I highlighted the portions of the charts for the third quarter of this year. As you can see, all four charts have been declining for the last six months, which is also reflected in Moderna's declining revenue and net income. The fourth quarter of these charts show even more decline. That means the fourth quarter revenue and EPS for Moderna will be lower than those for the third quarter. The COVID and cancer vaccines are not the only potential sources of revenues from Moderna. The company has a very strong pipeline with one product in commercial phase, which is a COVID vaccine, and they have two vaccines in phase three, which will typically take one or two years for a final FDA approval if they are proven to be successful. They have seven more COVID vaccines, plus the vaccines for the flu, plus the vaccine for RSV, Zika, cancer, and myocardial ischemia. In addition, they have 11 products in phase one and 18 products in preclinical stage. Moderna does have a very strong product development pipeline. It's just a matter of when the new products will be able to generate new revenues. With the background information we just looked at, we are now ready to do the evaluation of Moderna. First, I looked at the trailing and forward PE ratios for the leading pharmaceutical companies. The average PE ratio is about 18. Moderna has a low PE ratio of 8.26, because it is perceived to be solely dependent on the COVID vaccine so far. I then line up the trailing 12 months financial numbers and try to extrapolate the stock prices for 2022 through 2026. I assume the declining revenues from the COVID vaccines from one year to the next. I also assume the increase of revenues from the new products. As the company gets more products approved, their PE ratio should start to approach the industry average of 18. Based on these assumptions, I arrive at a stock price of 226 for the end of 2022 and the price of 175 for 2023 and 220 for the end of 2024, etc. I set the price target of $220 a share by the end of January 2023 and the target of $175 a share by the end of June 2023. The reason why I predict the stock price to go down in mid-2023 is because there will be a drought in revenues before the new non-COVID vaccines are generating revenues. Let's look at what the professional analysts have been saying about Moderna. First of all, we should look at the closing price today, December 23, and the closing price today is $199.08. My target is $220 by the end of January 2023 and then my target goes down to $175 by the end of June 2023. Yahoo Business gives them a buy rating at $2.4 and a high target of $506, average target of $219 and low target of $102. Tipdranks.com gives them a moderate buy rating with a high target of $506, average target of $219 and low target of $102. CN Money, a whole rating, high target of $506, median target of $109 and low target of $102. Louis Névalier doesn't like the stock. The overall rating is just C, a whole rating with a quantitative rating of C and a fundamental rating of D. Let's look at insider trading activities for the company. You can see that around the time Moderna peaked in 2021, there was a lot of insider selling going on. In the last couple of months, the selling is not nearly as intense. That gives us a hope that the recent rebound might go on for at least a few more weeks yet. Let's look at the charts. I'm showing here three panels. On the left side, it's an hourly chart represented by the candle state line. The middle panel is a daily chart and the right panel is the weekly chart. And also I'm showing the RSI, DMI and MACD indicators below the candle state charts. If you look at the weekly chart, you can see the RSI value is fairly high but not nearly as high as back when Moderna peaked in August of 2021. We should still be careful because the RSI value is above 60 at this point. We should be careful also because COVID is fading away and the new products from Moderna are not ready to be commercialized yet. And of course they have not been approved by the FDA yet. If you look at the daily chart, the RSI value was fairly high a few days ago. It was at about 77.5 and the stock price dropped subsequently. Then we see this jump on December 13 when the news about the cancer vaccine came out. When the price started to pick up on that day and I read about the news, I bought the shares and then a couple of days later when the share price was way above the Bollinger Band and I sold anticipating a price drop. And sure enough, the price dropped. If you look at historically, the price never went too high above the upper Bollinger Band for more than one or two days before it started dropping. That's why I decided to take my profit on December 15th. And then a couple of days later when the price was low enough, I bought again and then a couple of days later I sold again for profit. At this point, I don't own any Moderna shares, but if I do buy shares, I will notify my Twitter subscribers. What are my strategies? I currently do not own any Moderna shares. I have been swing trading Moderna for the last couple of weeks, but if I do buy Moderna shares, I'll probably keep a low number of shares for the long term until a company's new products start kicking in. And I believe the company will have a very strong financial future in the long term. I will be swing trading my Moderna shares based on the RSI indicator, the Bollinger Band and macroeconomic issues, as well as the progress of product development from Moderna. Generally, I would sell when the price fails to get support from a support level or when the price pulls back from a resistance level or when adverse news develops about a company. I would generally buy when the price bounces up from a support level or when it breaks above a resistance level or when positive news develops about a company. I'll be mindful of the broad market and any news events related to Moderna. When I create Moderna stocks in the next few weeks, I will update my subscribers by way of my Twitter messages. At this point, I'd like to suggest for you to subscribe to my Twitter account, which is DanMarketL, in addition to subscribing to my YouTube channel. For example, on December 13th, I tweeted that I bought Moderna shares on the news about the progress on cancer vaccine. And then two days later, I tweeted that I sold the Moderna shares that I bought on 1213 at 11.9% gain because at that point, the price was way above the upper Bollinger Band and I predicted that the price would be falling and indeed the price did fall after I sold. Then on December 20th, when the price settled down at a lower point, actually 5% below my sale price on 1215, I bought Moderna shares again. And then two days later, I sold those shares for a 2.5% gain. Thank you for watching all the way to here. I'd like to suggest for you to click the like, subscribe and notification button. As usual, I will very much welcome your comments, questions and suggestions. I'd like to remind you that I'm not a financial advisor. I share my stock trading strategies and analyses for educational and entertainment purposes only. If you want to buy or sell stocks, you should make your own decisions and you should definitely consult with your financial advisors before you do so. That wraps up my video for now. I will chat with you again in the next few days. In the meanwhile, I'd like to wish you the very best of luck with your financial investments.