 Hi, my name is Leon Roe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180.com and welcome to this week's applying demand for us technical Analysis if you're new welcome, and if you're returning welcome back I really hope that every week you find the analysis technical analysis useful as well as some of the fundamentals and if you want to skip to your favorite pairs, we have the timestamp in the description box below along with the Technical analysis, which is on my trading view channel. So We'll start off with the fundamentals before we get into the technicals just a week ahead Analysis from trading economics, which is a great site trading economics comm if you're into fundamentals definitely Use this this site along with others like forex factory as well But in the week ahead we have the u.s. Publishing with jobs report rights and non-farm payrolls last time came out way below expected, but that was I think that was due to the Bad weather so we're expecting obviously something a lot higher Figure-wise this this time around this month, and if it isn't then something really is wrong Potentially with the jobs market and that would probably lead to Fears or confirming certain fears about the slowdown in the u.s GDP and Heading into a recession, which I'm not buying just yet. I mean probably is there are economic cycles, but There are other countries that are much worse off than the u.s. At the moment, but anyways So you've got ISM PMIs ADP employment retail sales durable goods and construction spending elsewhere the Reserve Bank of Australia And I think that's the Reserve Bank of India will decide on the monetary policy is quite important other important data include UK market PMIs Eurozone inflation Germany factory orders and industrial output Japan business morale and China Caxing I think that's how you pronounce it PMIs again that China PMIs will be Quite important as well. Eurozone inflation Is gonna be another one, but with with brexit being extended and Again some uncertainty Not too sure whether that's gonna be you know really that market moving Again if you want to know probably more bit more about fundamentals You can go to the fundamental analysis course the link is in the description box below and it'll bring you to this page Which is my fundamental and sentiment analysis trading course where I go over Pretty much what you need to know about fundamental and sentiment analysis, which is risk on risk off right, if you click on that spreadsheet brings you to here and This is just a spreadsheet where I give you my opinion on what currency I am bullish and bearish and is varying degrees of bullish and bearishness Depending on the strength the US dollar being number one overall if you understand GDP inflation and interest rates So yeah, this is only for risk on so fundamentals. It doesn't take into account risk off Sentiment by the way, so even though I am bullish on the dollar I could be definitely bullish on the yen if it is a risk off environment so let's get into the technical analysis and Start off on the Dow Jones dollar index as we always do every week in the Dow Jones dollar index is just a measure of dollar strength against some of the major currencies like the pound the yen and the euro and the Australian dollar and last week If you zoom in a little bit We were pretty much in between this supply zone and on the top end of this demand zone and Actually dollar strength as you can already guess Came into the market and now we're up to this This supply zone here. So Let's look at a price chart in real time And let's see if we can amend some of these zones All right, so Right now, I think everything is still pretty much the same we have come up into this Supply zone here and we also have some diagonal resistance which prices is reacting from right if you believe that the The dollar will get weaker and potentially again going into non-farm payrolls and some other data We could see, you know the dollar selling off around here or At that level of horizontal Resistance within this overall supply zone, even though it has been touched several times You could see a bit of a sell-off And again coming down into this demand and I'd probably Wait to more for if I was looking to be a buyer with a dollar. I'd be looking for Prices to really kind of come down to here or down into this zone doesn't mean that obviously If we get some good news and price starts to rally from here that I won't be a buyer of the dollar Not necessarily a dollar index, but I'll be buying the the dollar yen dollar Swiss depending on obviously the Risk often risk on sentiment, you know dollar CAD etc So right now It's more again to do with fundamentals If you're waiting for prices really the catalyst To react from putting from non-farm payrolls and that will put it determine the direction into this week So let's have a look at the next pair, which is the dollar yen and Again from last week. I Was expecting more risk of sentiment to really come into the market, but we actually came down into This demand zone here touching it Then we reacted and again that just confirmed on the dollar index so you pretty much come up into this area here of supply and I still think that risk should be more off than on So going to dollar yen Zooming in a little bit What we could have this week if the dollar index starts to set off, then you'll get a move like this if Risk remains on or there is some dollar Strength that comes into the market. I don't really expect this supply zone to really hold This would be where you'd be looking at probably entering short the highs of the market All right Looking at probably some buying opportunities again You'd have to wait for a pullback on the dollar index and then look for buying opportunities here or here But overall I think the dollar is obviously the the dominant currency and I'll be waiting for you know potential pullbacks I'm not a breakout trader break out traders are the ones that usually get caught out on the wrong side of the market so If anything what you'd have to do is wait for prices to really come up Into this zone if you're looking to be a buyer with a dollar that would create what we would know as Demand zone right here and then wait for a pullback into that demand zone before looking at getting long at the moment It hasn't quite created a strong enough demand zone. There is demand here, but I'm not gonna put it on on this On the chart just yet. I wanted to really kind of break this supply zone before I think about putting that demand zone on there So those are your options for the dollar yen moving on to the dollar Swiss and The dollar Swiss from last week Zooming a little bit again. We came down into this demand zone here Risk being more off than on but the dollar Strengthening still in risk of environments We did get bit of a moving a bit of reaction So there was some opportunities to get long on lower timeframes and still potentially On this currency pair, I Prefer I prefer for prices to really kind of come down to this 98 You know number here before looking at establishing some long trades Even though this is a decent setup You've got enough, you know movement to the upside in order to capture some decent pips So let's look at what potentially could be going on This week the dollar yen Yeah, so If you are looking to buy the dollar you could be looking for a bit of a pullback Even this levels touched once twice several times The weaker that that demand zone will probably end up becoming if it does touch this zone again So I'm probably waiting for prices to come down to this area It's 98 round number before looking at establishing any long positions If you're looking to get short then this is gonna be the first area to look to get short and less Prices make a lower low and a lower high and then you'd be waiting for prices to come back into This level here before looking at getting short Yeah So you'd make for a lower low that create the lower high prices come up this becomes your supply zone and then you'd look for short trades, but With the dollar strength at the moment I'll be looking for just basically pullbacks You know into the man zones this demand zone being the best if prices do come up Then I've went for a pullback into another demand zone before looking to get long Moving on to the dollar CAD and the dollar CAD We had What's prices come up into this supply zone sold off a little bit and it's sold off again Oil, you know strengthening, you know going from strength to strength So after a bit of a trending market, you can expect prices to enter into You know a arranging market, you know price acceptance at the moment the 1.345 level is where Traders seem to feel that this is an expensive area for the for the dollar Against the CAD if you are looking to be a buyer, let's go to the chart Waiting for a pullback into this song, which is decent. You also have a Level right here where you have some Horizontal support and resistance where you've got resistance resistance resistance resistance bit of support there Bit of support here within that demand zone which adds to the confluence. You also have a bit of dynamic So a diagonal support but not within that zone So I'm not gonna put it on there and then we also can look at Dynamic support and resistance within this area. You've got the 100 moving averages Within this area, and let's see if you've got any Yeah, have you got the 50 as well within this area? So this demand zone looks decent for a good buy Would say just make sure that oil is selling off before you look to to buy This currency pair Now moving on to the New Zealand dollar US dollar New Zealand dollar US dollar So can we came up into this supply zone this higher supply zone, right? We put in a bit of a pin bar There was an opportunity to get short again from this potential double top I did mention that last week and We did sell off dollar strength US dollar strength New Zealand dollar It was pretty dovish with their Their reserve bank in New Zealand statement potential hinting at a rate cut so you can see where prices pretty much sold off taking out this demand zone right here So let's look at Removing some levels right here That gets removed What I'll do is just adjust this Supply zone as well, right? So Supply and again if prices come back up to this area here, this is where you'd be looking at Selling from buy perspective I think anywhere around here is a decent buy if you're looking to buy the New Zealand dollar That is you'd have to think really kind of think that the New Zealand dollar Is gonna, you know gain a strength or the US dollar is gonna, you know weaken There could be some potential weakening with the US dollar depending on non-farm payroll news So around these are Horizontal support levels within these wider area of demand Decent areas to look for some are some long trades And they get me at the confluence of this diagonal Support maybe some moving averages You've got really the One of the 200 moving averages below there Then the 50 and the 100. I think it's gonna be way above. Yeah, so not really much dynamic support You know supporting the New Zealand dollar, but if I was a Better man up We'll be waiting for prices to really come back up to you know This area here before looking to get sure if prices do if not then Wait for lower highs lower lows. So for example prices Make a move like that wait for price to come back up into this area here and then look for a short trade Moving on to the pound dollar And the pound dollar has been Really no fireworks this week That just sold off obviously with the whole Brexit And negotiations really not going great, but you know being extended and there's still a bit of certainty You know and it's still a chance that the you know the UK can stay within The the there's a deal potentially on the table or some type of deal anyway Again you can see that reflected in price and we've really just come down into this lower area So if we're looking at what potentially could be happening This week, let's clean up the charts We can get rid of that. I probably expect prices to not really hold We've touched this ones once twice and now the third time so the third touch usually It can work But it's not a higher probability trade like it would be on the first or potentially the second touch third touch Wouldn't be for me if I was looking to buy the pound I was looking to buy the pound it'd have to be and move probably down here before looking to get long From a Short trade buying the dollar. This is where you'd be looking at Really the first area to look to buy the dollar is going to be right around here. We also have what looks like Decent area of horizontal resistance support support bit of resistance here So within this around this 1.32 level could be a decent selling opportunity on the pound But again, this is very sentiment driven at the moment this currency pair and the British pound So just be careful when it comes to You know putting potential oil fuel, you know normal risk putty go down to maybe half or quarter position size because Anything can really happen on the British pound Euro dollar so last week I Ended up taking profits on this On this currency pair and I'll actually show you that as well So I ended up getting short right here and then I've taken profits around here this week It was a nicer thing about four to one trade Again, this is more of a fundamental and sentiment play US being the stronger currency euro being very weak and uncertain around Brexit, so let's get into some of the analysis and I'll show you the trade setup in a sec So we've made lower lows lower highs now that supply zone there We do have a bit of demand Bit but it was quite a wide zone of demand, which is right here, but I didn't want to put it on there But anywhere around here, I would say is decent Decent for a long trade if you're looking to get long Now from a trade setup perspective, this is what I've got in that entry right there. Oh wrong one And you can look at last week's video as well and have a look all right and my target was from the low to the high and around 80% of that move so This was where it's a decent three to one trade not four to one trade three to one trade right here where the you know prices pretty much ended up coming down and Hitting target right here, and I do go over, you know my how I you know basically Determined targets in a in a video which I leave in the description box below I can't remember the title of it, but I talk about the Australian dollar and targets And I'll leave a like I said, I leave a link in the description box below So my usually I go for either 50% or the 80% retracement for For my targets and gives me gave me a nice a nice risk reward trade on that so Going forward now again, you'd probably be looking Either any kind of buy Trade around is 1.1 to level personally. I'm not looking to buy the euro. I'll be looking to sell So that'd be the first area right there to look for a sell trade and as you made lower highs and lower lows right there That'd be the next Level you've got a bit of I would say horizontal support Around that area Nothing major I guess maybe on the lower time frame that probably would be something around here And kind of see it around there. Yeah, I keep it like that. So If we get a bit of a pullback Into this one point one three and we see, you know decent price action then I'll be looking at getting short right here Any long trades right now if you think that the dollar is gonna weaken against the euro Would be this would be the really the area to look for any kind of long trades Moving on to the euro yen Euro yen so from last week I actually ended up getting out of this trade as well taking profits And we pretty much just went sideways risk off me to zoom in a little bit So we ended up getting in short around here and this was this was the four to one trade that we ended up getting in and Prices this week pretty much just went sideways. So Started the week from here ended the week at this one point two four level Let's have a look the chart so again, there was an opportunity to potentially buy the euro Lower time frame charts, but again, we're having with risk being more on then turn more off than on I Can't see really the euro rallying for any any particular reason But if you do want to be a buyer now is pretty much the time to look for buy trades if you're looking for a Sell trade you'd have to work for price to really come all the way back up to here or create lower Lows lower highs and then look for a short trade around Here which is probably the probably what is more likely to happen But again depending on what happens with you know risk sentiment So again, just a quick recap of the actual trade that we ended up getting in on So this was the candle here and right there stopped just above the high and it was a retracement from from this low This demand zone to that high originally I was actually planning on Unholding this trade, but I thought I'd take some profits Just below the 80% matter of fact so Decent trade right there from that high and that supply zone up there to the lows right there so Decent trade this week as well Moving on to the Australian dollar US dollar this week Can we pretty much just moved sideways? Not much, you know price movement. Maybe what are you looking at? 768, you know, maybe about less than less than really a hundred pips of price movement this week prices, you know, I've just been I'm going sideways in bedroom really Quite low volatility In the market over the past quite a few months So really there was an opportunity to potentially get along here day trading opportunities Let's go into into that so Again buying around here. If he was maybe looking at an hourly time frame chart. This is where you would have been Potentially looking to buy around here or would it was it around here somewhere around here? Anyway, that she was this week so I'm potential buying opportunities But I don't really trade the daily. I mean the hourly so For me, there really wasn't any buying opportunity and I wouldn't really be buying the Australian dollar either I'm looking for, you know sell trades if I'm looking to Get in on this currency pair. So Look for sell trades around here. There are buying opportunities at the moment But I'm not convinced with the Australian dollar. But again, we do have the RBA statement this week and if they are A bit more hawkish or a bit more neutral. We could see prices, you know rise, but My my estimation is that they want a weaker Australian dollar So you probably could see prices end up Selling off potentially so Just I would say probably hold fire on your on your buy trades or if you are going to get in long Then just enter a really kind of short position or small position. I should say You know, maybe a court position or or a half position But personally I'll be looking at short trades on this currency pair and finally we have the Aussie yen The Aussie yen again this week, not much movement price wise There was a bit matter of fact in a little bit. We did get a bit of a spike up Prices came back down Reacting off of this supply zone and then we're really in between the range So the range being from this high to this low Pretty much halfway, which is fair value So let's look at this price chart prices at the moment are being contained between that high and that low and So this is really since the 5th of February 8th of February prices are really in between that So we're just really around a fair value Australian dollar Japanese yen being a measure of risk sentiment So the moment it's very it's quite difficult to to tell From from this currency pair, you know, there's no really no direction when it comes to risk, even though there are several risk Factors going on again, Brexit Trump trade wars. There's going to be some European elections going on as well. So If I was Looking to get involved in this it'd probably be to the short side with with the uncertainty I don't really like buying the Japanese yen, but risk-off environment, you'd have to be looking for prices you know to To go short but um If you are looking at buying the Australian dollar again, depending on what they the rba say this week This could be a decent buying opportunity. You'd have to wait for prices to really kind of come down That's it for this week Hope you enjoyed the the analysis Don't forget to like subscribe and share and if you do have any questions regarding supply and demand Definitely send them in the In the description box below or you can email them to me at info at trading 180 dot com Hope you guys have a great trading week and take care