 We've got our third ever event at Detroit golf club upcoming for this week's PGA tour event the rocket mortgage classic Bryson the Shambo the defending champion is coming in as the heavy heavy favorite Is he a good bet at plus 700 on Fandals sportsbook or is he a better DFS play instead? What about the second tier this week? How quickly does it drop off because the field overall? not super deep but Kind of deep in a weird way because of how the course sets up allowing us to target maybe some some value golfers for daily fantasy So you know that second tier might not be great, but the third fourth fifth Here apps then it typically is what do we need to know about this course overall? We've only had two years. These are all good questions. I think so I of course I wrote them, but you know, I'm asking myself these questions But you can also ask me your questions about this event because this is the Fandal PGA Q&A for this week I'm your host Brandon Godulla. I'm the managing editor over at number fire calm I'll be talking about the field the betting odds on Fandals sportsbook the daily fantasy slate on Fandal my win simulations Whatever else you want because this is a Q&A format So just hit up the comment section on YouTube Facebook Twitter or Twitch if you have questions for this week's event the rocket mortgage classic I'm gonna start how I always do Looking at the field from a betting standpoint because that helps us kind of get our bearings with what to expect from a daily fantasy standpoint because usually the betting odds Correlate strongly to something like my win simulation model very strongly to Fandal salaries So it's always a great starting point for expecting or to figure out who we can expect to be looking at at the top of the field Of course, as I mentioned Bryson Dishambo plus 700 on Fandal sportsbook Twice as short as anyone else Patrick Reed 1400 a Hideki Matsuyama web sims in 1600 Will's out Taurus plus 2000 Neiman Walkie Neiman always like him at a course where you need some birdies Neiman's 22 to 1 Jason Coke rack Matthew Wolf 27 to 1 Jason day coming in after a good showing Kind of dependent on a short game though 29 to 1 not necessarily in on Jason day this week Kevin Kisner. This is not a big hitters course necessarily Bryson Dishambo has gone on record saying it does feel like a bombers paradise, but it doesn't necessarily The data has not shown that driving distance is a must so someone like Kevin Kisner shorter hitter still on play So I'll talk about what that actually means for how we can build our Fandal lineups How we can look at the betting card for this week Sung Jae M 29 to 1 so those are the golfers that we have Shorter than 30 to 1 so it's a pretty strong list, but then we do see a bit of a drop-off from there I'm gonna break down the course that I always do and then I see some questions popping in Aaron Rasmus from on Facebook's at the countdown. Yes, I love I always love the countdown It gets me pretty pretty hyped up to go over whether it's the heat check or the Q&A show What's up Ed? commenting from YouTube Was Bryson worth saving for this event in a one and done from Leo on YouTube um Let me break down the course and then I'll get to Bryson because he is fascinating for this week So again, we live two years of data at the Detroit golf club And so it can be a little bit tricky to figure out What is super relevant in terms of what matters to par 72 7300 yards? But one thing that kind of stands out to me here is this average green size of 51 50 kind of on average the average It's always weird to say that average average green size for a PGA tour course comes in just over 6,000 so we are looking at smaller greens, which can lead to more more volatility even though The scores here tend to go low, but not a whole lot stands out aside from the fact that we have bent grass and poa on these greens So definitely not Bermuda So we can kind of bump up golfers from that perspective who struggle on Bermuda, but are better on other surfaces So just something I like to look at there get a feel for the course And then what I always do too is look at this tool from data golf which shows What drives variation and scores at a particular course? I should say not necessarily an event, but you know we have two years of data so Not a whole lot and it can get skewed a little bit one way or the other But one thing that really jumps out to me is that almost 44 percent of scoring is explained by putting Which is usually high you can see here the tour average is about 36 percent But is it like a birdie fest so it comes down to like irons and your putting We see a de-emphasis on strokes get off the tee which is surprising because Bryson said that he liked the idea of coming here because he could bomb it and he did gain 1.67 strokes per round off the tee Last year to win at 23 under par Matthew Wolf 20 under par in the year before I Nate Lashley won at 25 under And I believe the runner-up was 19 under yeah doc Redmond So I mean different ways to kind of go this week, but talked about this a few times in recent weeks actually the The lower scores go to win kind of Elevates the field and we get more opportunities for golfers to go low I use this example a lot and it's a little bit ironic because Bryson could do this But the better golfers tend to gain advantage better golfers tend to be longer as well But you can kind of gain advantage on say a par 4 that nobody else like that the shorter guys are the quote-unquote Worst golfers can't necessarily birdie, but you can birdie that And that gives you a leg up if every par 4 is kind of birdieable That levels the playing field because the best longest hitters don't necessarily you know They're not going to equal par 4s consistently So it kind of narrows that gap a bit because scores go low these are the best golfers in The world and whenever we do see that and especially so we kind of get the double whammy So she on a course that doesn't demand driving distance as we see here from this course fit tool from data golf Driving distance is a little less important At Detroit golf club than it is on your average PGA tour course So whenever accuracy matters and you don't have to be long and whenever scores go low Volatility comes into play a lot more. So I like Bryson and I'm gonna start there. I'll get back to Leo's question again I came from YouTube. I Think it may I think it makes sense to like Bryson, but there is a lot of volatility So I was bright, but was Bryson worth saving for this event in a one and done I think probably yes, it's very justifiable because you're not gonna see many golfers in a full field with odds of set playing a plus 700 7 to 1 Most It was just the rest of the year You don't really see a whole lot of that and we know that Bryson at his peak can win this event by multiple shots That's what we saw last year from him for me Bryson does rate out as the most likely winner in my win simulations at 6.7 percent Which is a far cry from what? 7 to 1 odds imply So I you know and starting to get a little bit colder at the idea of actually betting him at plus 700 But as far as like a daily fantasy High floor high ceiling approach play. I think Bryson is easily the best play but for a one and done The the odds that Bryson a misses the cut are about 20% And you know that B, you know finishes top 10 gets you some of that earnings for a one and done about 35 34% so That's really strong And I you know maybe Bryson in a major but then you have all those other options So Bryson for this event. I think probably a really smart play ought to save him for this week's one and done Similar question from Steve on Facebook. Well, the shambo repeat his victory from last year. I like coke rack this weekend So again Bryson is the odds on favorite heavily, but again 6.7% I had him at about 7% I had to rerun things right before the show So it's actually a little bit scrambled because we got tons of withdrawals this week Actually, so I wanted to make sure everything looked a little bit fresher with with my win simulations Coming in around 7% which is fine um of course you know for him to be like 7 to 1 you probably need that almost doubled in a way so like to at least to find A positive expected value on that. So I don't really see the case so much anymore for Bryson Um, I saw him at you know seven and a half to one. I thought he might fall a little bit to eight, but I mean I understand why he's seven to one coming off the win And with this field looking like it does so I would say Statistically most likely Bryson is the winner But it's not substantial enough to say like he's going to repeat But I do think that he's the best DFS play of the week because you can see these are the top five in salary on fandal Bryson's only 12,200 Hadekis 11,900. So, you know Bryson really isn't you know if if this reflected more of the sports book odds Bryson would be like 13,000, but he's not so Like Bryson a lot from a one-and-done perspective from just a high floors perspective But I'll dig into Jason Kochrack here because I didn't really land on him. I think I'm kind of I'm kind of set on For this week for my daily fantasy lineups because of that volatility the scoring that I talked about Gonna be kind of locking in the stud Narrowing it down to maybe four of the studs. However, you want to define them probably Bryson Web number two locking Newman number three Patrick Reed number four and Cameron Chingali probably number five Uh, and then trying to take all those shots with the the value that we have this week. So I I actually kind of just Didn't get to Jason Kochrack only because I'm trying to narrow my focus at the very top But you can see here almost three percent likely to win That's pretty strong Overall, which doesn't sound like a lot, but you know, you're facing all these golfers. It's pretty it's pretty solid win odds Um, we see all this green in his data Specifically with Kochrack What you always love to see is the t-degree data a 93rd percentile This is you know comes from my database. Uh, it adjusts for field strength and recency So the more recent rounds are weighted a little bit more Rounds from almost a year ago at this point not weighted in quite so heavily, but One of the best t-degree players that we get one of the best off the t players One of the best iron players and actually his putting's trending up So it's really intriguing for Kochrack because if you've been falling Jason Kochrack for a while, you know The putting's not always there. Um, his career arc kind of goes Up and then back down and he's coming kind of digging his way back out a little bit and you can see here on bent grass and poa Combined he is in the 75th percentile in this field Over the past 100 rounds. So I like Jason Kochrack I just don't like Jason Kochrack as much as some other golfers And I think that that's going to be key this week because Bryson's going to be chalky Uh, and you can find if you find any ways to differentiate, uh, you're going to be in a good position Another question from ed about the milwaukie bucks Aaron, uh, Aaron Kate Dolan will be on uh in a bit talking, uh, nba, but I Kind of think it's the suns, but uh, she will answer your question a lot more in depth later on Uh I've got I this is from It's mr. Jackie moon. I've got on golf about five times. I lost every one Yeah, so golf is tricky. Um, but there are ways to build high floor lineups That generally comes in a more bound on uh But if you're talking about betting, um I would highly recommend because when I started betting on golf I got pretty heavy in on outrides And they are Fun, it's fun to you know get you know 33 to 1 uh on your Outrides, but look at maybe top 10s top 20s. I think there's a lot of value. I think there's uh, I've been trending more toward Not necessarily outrides and it's been a lot more fun. So so check that out Uh, and I think you'll probably have uh, A little bit more of a fun time betting some top 10s top 20s even top 5s on some golfers Like a Bryson DeChambeau for this week, but that's uh, yeah, I I know exactly what you mean So, uh, I think I'm all caught up Yes, uh, appreciate the advice for yeah, definitely. Um, that's what I'm here for I'll go over my wind simulations as well in a bit and look at the best betting values for the week Which you can also apply for the longer shots on you know, those top 10s top 20s that I'm trying to get more into Uh myself So I broke down a little bit of the top five I guess not really I'll just undo that. Um, because I want to look at Hideki Patrick Reed Webb Simpson Not necessarily Will's out of tourists. Uh, I again not a whole lot against him But the the bent grass and poa potting is not particularly great. Um, so for me Will's out of tourists is someone I'm not necessarily in on Because I have other options. So, uh, that's where I am with Will's out of tourists But I'm gonna add walkie neem in here Because I like him a little better But what I'm talking about with like avoiding Bryson is you don't have to because the floor is really high from what he does Well, best birdie maker in the field Best, it's not surprisingly adjusted off the tee play So just hits the driver better Than anyone else 99th percentile adjusted tee to green. So again, there's not there's no reason not to like Bryson The only case you can really make is that'll be a little bit too popular But we have other options to go to a Hideki Matsuyama not necessarily good bent grass and poa potter not really good butter on any surface, but Just the best tee to green player over the past calendar year one of the best overall And he makes a lot of birdies 84th percentile He would make a lot more birdies if he putted better, but he's actually finished well at Detroit golf club Uh in two straight years. So that's intriguing. Uh, but Patrick Reed is someone who really jumped out to me He's in a really good form and I can pull up, uh, his past 20 rounds and show some context there But uh, one thing that I didn't think of and I never think of this because I get set on my ways a little bit Is Patrick Reed uh better on tougher courses going to avoid bogies not necessarily make birdies But he's in the 98th percentile over the past 100 rounds and birdie or better rate gained according to fantasy national So I mean, I think Patrick Reed you can pivot to uh, because he's never very popular because you know people don't necessarily like Patrick Reed For one reason or another But I think Patrick Reed someone we can pivot to but then also web simpson. Uh, this is again I showed that course fits whole from data golf You don't have to be long and anytime that's the case web simpson really gets bumped up Uh from you know, just a daily fantasy standpoint from a betting standpoint I think web of these five is easily the most likely golf from um, I would bet on uh, it uh, plus 1600 um rates out just behind brison and patrick reed in um a win simulations win expectations Uh to hedecki at 3.6 percent But web nothing really to worry about aside from the distance and anytime that's the case, you know, that's that's really Uh, something that we can take advantage of and then walkie neiman struggles around the green relative to these other studs Uh a little bit sub par in that category, but at a birdie fest your wedges and getting up and down Not necessarily going to be enough. So uh, you know other people say this But it makes a lot of sense if you're relying on your wedges to get up and down Probably not contending in an event like this We got to be 20 under unless you're holding out a few times which Is not something that we can really bank on so uh for me walking neiman is really interesting Overall, but we have a ton of options to go to at the top and then to me the field does drop off quite a bit um, so i'm gonna go over to my spreadsheet overall and look at this sort of second tier again If you guys have any specific questions Anyone you want me to talk about in particular? Shit up the comment section on youtube, uh, facebook, twitter, twitch, whatever it is. Uh, that's your preference. Um Sorry, I really don't know enough about golf to ask good questions. It's all good jacky mooney. Hopefully you can learn a few things From uh, what i'm going over uh golf is kind of complex, but also really simple In a way if you just target the best t-degree and golfers and hope that your guys make the putt make make putts that week um, it's a really easy to complicate um, but You can also just check out what we have on number fire Always tune in to this show and ask me some questions if you have any uh specifics, but you know for this week I think that second tier is not that appealing overall. Um, I have two names highlighted Doc redmond and cameron train golly. I like cameron train golly quite a bit um, he is ranking sixth overall when I combine Adjusted form and stats that I'm looking for uh for the particular So he is definitely in play for you know a cash game consideration. Uh doc redmond a pretty good form here He struggles around the green we get that red flag because he's below the 25th percentile and adjusted around the green play over the past year um, but I mean Again, this is what I talked about with walkie neiman. We're not expecting Doc redmond to need his wedges and if we are it's just not going to be a good week for doc redmond and that's That's it happens and you move on uh, but for me this this second tier doesn't have a whole lot of interesting names From you know really top to bottom Below that almost kind of the same case this 9 000 range I have a few names that I that I like kind of out of obligation because I have to recommend some golfers in this range Uh seawool kim though is the standout for me I love seawool kim. I'll pull him up on the finder, but uh garakigo uh is You know trending up overall and We know that he's a really good putter and we've seen the early returns for him be He does everything but chip well so that kind of fits uh for this week The bigger problem is I'm not necessarily looking at a balanced build Which I typically do looking for you know that that high floor lineup. I'm looking for some Studs this week and some value plays so it goes a little bit against what I typically do But again the easier the course is uh the more that these sort of lower salary plays can be in Like the optimal lineup for example a question from leo on youtube recommendation on a low risk anchor for a lineup So the easy answer is brison The Other answer is web if we're looking for a safe anchor play because web simpson Although he's missed he missed the cut at the us open a very uncharacteristic for him to lose strokes putting which he did And it's also the us open so distance is more important there Not quite so important this week. So I think brison's the easy answer web If you're looking for someone like as kind of a you know a middle salary play who's really safe I don't know that that exists necessarily, but it's probably going to be seawood kim for me and I'll show why Let's clear everyone else out Seawood kim 50 to 1 love that 2.4 likely to win love that at the salary For me, uh, also someone I like for an outright bet this week But you don't see any red flags here, uh, we we see that he's a really good adjusted t degree in golfer In that 95th percentile and he is not particularly good at putting on Necessarily any surface. I'm good on bank grass not quite so much on poa, but average them out It's still looking pretty good. He just really struggles on bermuda. So If you get him away from bermuda, uh, there's not a whole lot that I think we can Actively worry about which seawood kim historically has been quite volatile Not so much anymore in that 92nd percentile in birdie or better eight game, which is what we're looking for So those are the three closest things I have to anchors this week. Uh, so good question there, uh, leo Jump back over here to my full spreadsheet um Anyone else really worth I think lonto griffin's interesting, uh, just from a sort of safety balance standpoint 85th percentile t degree No red flags in any of the key stats pretty solid, uh, bank grass bermuda putter in the 80th percentile there So lonto definitely in that consideration for me, uh, but I'm kind of looking more below this tier even Which I don't always do But sep strock has played well here to straight top 11 finishes for him The irons haven't been particularly great lately, but the long sample the longer sample Does have him in the 50 59th percentile When once making uh, some adjustments there patent because I was the best long-term adjust the golfer in this Uh salary tier below 9 000 So I think kazyre's in play for a bounce back cameron davis someone I really like this week again Fits that like we see the red flag here 70th percentile In uh around the green play but really good elsewhere can make a lot of birdies one of the best birdie makers That we have on tour. So this is kind of the right setup for cameron davis to bounce back Um Doug gim kind of the same thing short games a little bit of a question But good tea to green sebastian munoz really balanced overall, but james hawn and tom hoagie I think are appealing enough For this week to really dig down into the into the last 7 000 range Which I don't typically do I'll look at uh hoagie specifically Just because I I prefer him and then there's another name that that popped up as minimum salary That has appeal. He's not actually on my spreadsheet because the pga tour sample is basically, uh, you know, it's But tom hoagie We see that he's this number here You want that to be above zero to say that you're an above baseline like an above average putter Uh or a player for the past calendar year once, you know adjusted for everything and hoagie is that Despite that fact, you know, it's a little up and down here not long off the tee But a pretty solid birdie maker Just great irons, but you know, he's only 7600 on vandal. So I like that a lot And then I'm going to jump back over here to This true strokes gained Query is golf strictly on weekends if I win this is from mr. Jackie moon on twitch There's golf strictly on weekends if I win some nba or mob this week I'm out of so vandal has weekend contests It Almost every single week. It's almost never deviates You'll get a lock on thursday morning. It'll run through sunday But uh, fandal sportsbook always has some some live betting odds options there and uh, you know, you can play some like weekend or, you know contests on fandal So there are a lot of ways to get in on the action uh with pga even if you miss lock on thursday but one one name that came up as Minimum salary once he got added to the field uh was mithil perera And he is interesting because He's coming off two straight wins on the corn fairy tour top 10 before that 66 ninth second Um 28 17 so lots of good finishes. Uh, not a whole lot of data though, uh, especially shot link data We don't have any so that's a little bit of a you know pump the brakes a bit But if we can get mithil perera to make the cut it's a seven thousand dollar salary I think that has a lot of appeal and over the past 20 rounds Mito Is ranking 12th in this field and data golf's adjusted strokes gained average so Just something to think about uh, you can play you have a lot of flexibility if you're okay with mithil perera as a Minimum salary play again Don't It's going to make the cut But if you are rotating in some values I think perera hoagie james hawn and that seven thousand remains really open up a lot for this week So that's kind of something that i'm really in on this week that I don't typically Kind of look at I usually go for more balance, but this week with the birdies with the accuracy Being elevated and distance being a little bit mitigated We're going to see a pretty scattered leaderboard overall um Now I'll go over to my wind simulations here specifically and show Jim I just yeah imagine not using night mode on data golf. I I have been but um There some of their pages don't have that option and it kind of hurts my eyes to go back and forth, but yeah, um Good good one jim Thanks for that comment, bud I'll talk to you in a second The low wind simulations are not very high on bryce and relative to the win odds So he's rating out as a pretty poor value anytime you have that Uh, you know, you can see some some pretty strong value bets outside of that I would have to say if I were just making these wind simulations myself Which I mean I make them myself, but if I wasn't relying on data I would be sprinkling in some more on bryce and because it feels like the win odds should be higher than that But based solely on the data over the past year with all the adjustments bryce's overvalued at plus 700 So um, I can't you know, I would still consider betting him honestly just because it feels like he's going to win But statistically the the value is not there the value is a little bit more on guys like web simpson patrick reed slow negative value there, but cameron golly seawoo kim Seawoo kim's kind of my guy this week birthday narrative for him. I'm sure jim's probably complaining about that too Uh, just like he's complaining about my my night mode But uh seawoo kim cameron golly, uh, definitely plan play for top tens even if we don't want to go as so far as to bet them for outrides brennan todd Kind of a good course fit because of everything, uh that he Can do but i'm not quite there because his irons are so bad lonto griffin definitely more appealing to me Uh, so i'm looking at web simpson seawoo kim Cameron davis, uh as well. I don't even know what my model says about him So he's about fair uh here, but those are kind of the guys that i'm looking at. I have my Full win simulations up on number fire i'm gonna bring on jim now and uh I'll i'll hang around and criticize whatever he's doing, but Uh, whenever jim's ready to come on we can not criticizing. I'm just confused. Yeah I mean you're you're the person who like yells at me For not using night mode and now here. Are you a hypocrite? Not using it while you're showing the people with a way to do things It's just it's it's honestly Looks like you back and forth terrible. I should change that profile pic I like that. It's not good. It's not good. I'll tell you that you said you sent us a good one today I can I'll hack you and I tweeted it. I tweeted okay Yeah, you should just make that your youtube photo then i'm not going to see cal knows that the seawoo kim birthday narrative Is in full swing yesterday with seawoo kins birthday. I think he turned 26 Which means he's gonna go 26 under and beat Nate lashley's score from two years ago. I think that's just like that's math, right? I would not be surprised. I think it makes sense So, you know look we have our disagreements on night mode even though i'm a night mode guy Yeah, again, you're the one who tells me to do this and you're just not doing it It's just the back and forth. It's it's too harsh. So yeah, I mean I yell at you for night mode. I'm about to flash up my Google doc my google sheets, which is terrible to begin with but also it's like the weird awful gradients Like look at that that's hitting hurts my eyes the green is so bright that it hurts my my brain I feel like I I am the true hypocrite here, but I also don't care because it's our show Yeah, they do have other gradients though. Um I'm that's a lot of effort. It's so look at all these columns. I'd have to change and like that's just a lot of work I'm not I'm pretty lazy as a person. I'm not gonna do that You and the viewers are gonna have to suffer through that all year because you won't take It was last year too. It's not two minutes It took me 15 minutes to put it this way and then i'm like, I don't know whatever too lazy That's taking you 15 minutes to put those gradients on maybe we should Well, they're all different because it's comparing this skill interactive e r a to these it's comparing this strike r a to these And like spreadsheets work, but I know but like it's more than 15. It's more than two minutes Like just know this just give me Yeah, I I'll do it for you and I'll time myself. Thank goodness. I will send you the link I'll put you on it as an editor and we'll be good to go Brandon. I appreciate you. Good luck this week It will talk to you again next week Yeah, good luck, uh, looking to learn what I need to do for baseball tonight because as always My research starts with this show. I'm glad uh, that's unfortunate But I am glad that is brandon cadoula checking out on twitter at cadoula 13 and check out if you want more pga thoughts Uh our heat check fantasy podcast up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed as a reminder Aaron dolin coming up next she'll be here at 4 30 today to talk about game four of the eastern conference file Finals my name is jim sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire dot com here to get you set for a 15 game Slate for tonight in mlb dfs So no matter where you're watching for today if you're watching youtube twitch facebook or twitter get those questions in For tonight slate of mlb dfs and it does shape up like a dandy because we've got 15 games and I can sometimes get a bit overwhelmed when there are 15 games to choose from because like it's just a lot of choices to have But I think despite that we still have at least to me A pretty definitive number one pitcher and number one stack for today The number one pitcher is going to be robbie ray facing the mariners. This is over his past seven starts with more With more sliders and fewer curveballs. He has a 33 strike area with a 2.92 skill interactive. Yeah ray He's been just disgusting in this time now ray does still let apart contact because It's still robbie ray like we're not totally getting off the the all the all the issues of robbie ray But against seattle not as big of an issue for me So robbie ray the top pitcher the rocky is the top stack for today out in colorado It is not super warm for today is 77 degrees in colorado But face and chase to young and the youngest guy we can stack against for sure, especially Once you put them in colorado. This is over his past four starts with decreased movement 5.02 skill interactive. Yeah ray 45 hard hit rate and a 51 fly ball rates Those are numbers we want to stack against even the team as bad as colorado so robbie ray definitively number one pitcher and the rocky is definitively The number one stack let's talk to meteo the over on youtube meteo likes the padre's offense for tonight So which lower salaried pitches do you like first of all meteo? I agree san diego a very good option for today Facing tony santian. He has let up a lot of hard contact through his first three starts I expect the strikeouts to still be there. I think he will be a guy who does get strikeouts But that's okay. We can still go there because the hard contact profile is as good as it is So i'm on board with you there meteo as far as low salary pitchers me There are two guys who stand out one of them is nick pavetta The other one is joe ross pavetta facing the royals softer match Which is why I prefer pavetta over joe ross despite the fact that joe ross was very kind to us last week pavetta 28 strikeout rate over his past nine starts and more curve balls Based on the royals 88 w rc plus that adds up pretty well The one bad thing with pavetta is he's not very efficient with his pitches But the royals decently free swingers So I think that that helps him for today So pavetta to me the top value option joe ross facing the rays number two value option This is over his past six starts with fewer forcing fast balls and more sliders and that's good because ross is a guy who Doesn't have a good forcing fast balls So seeing him decrease the usage of that is good in that time the 3.51 skill interactive era 27 strikeout rate he's facing the rays who have a 26 strike area versus righties Ross has upside I worry about the floor because the rays are a good offense and the sample for ross on being this good is still kind of small So I prefer pavetta, but I like ross as well If you're trying to find seller whether it be for the padres like matteo or for the rockies or for anyone else Let's talk to you kyle over on youtube gary ellor hozmer at first base for tonight so Both these guys are on teams willing to stack we talked this morning about how travis lakens Likely to start for the orioles. He is indeed the starter for today. I can stack against him for sure So that means the astros are in play and the padres are in play The issue I run into is that both those guys are pretty low upside against this specific handedness gary ell versus righties 136 iso coming up a bit I think you had a double last night if I recall correctly, which might be Helping that out a bit and hozmer just refuses to hit fly balls He had that like that that one little stretch last year and he the opening like the first week of this year hozmer was hitting fly balls And apparently he wasn't a fan of the home runs. He's like no no no no. Let's get rid of this He's at an 0 85 iso 26 fly ball rates I prefer hozmer's matchup I prefer his park But the other stuff will force me to favor gary ell if you're choosing between the two So gary ell over hozmer for me for today if you are choosing between those two guys But again, both teams in play for stacking here. Let's talk to jackie moon over on twitch. Hello jackie. Welcome back I had stanton one home run and carlson. It three hits for a 500 payout. Wow Missed by one carlson hit. That's awesome jackie. I know you mentioned that you were Uh, I think you said you were new to mlb dfs. Not sure if that's totally accurate But either way congratulations. That's great. Uh being one carlson. Huh carlson hit off is awesome I know it's disappointing to not get that one extra hit, but that's great Let's run it back and do it once again for today. Okay. We talked about robby ray talked about some value pictures Let's talk about other stacks here besides colorado. I do think that cleveland is in play again They're facing hosé irania and irania is a guy who Was struggling back in may got off to a good start this year Started a struggle in may and then the sticky stuff discussion happened and He's kind of falling off a cliff 6.51 skill interactive e r a over his past four starts 8 strikeout rate 12 walk rate All those numbers very stackable against it. That's a phrase. I'm going to say it's a phrase Uh, but by the way, he is a guy we can use batters against cleveland's lineup. I believe is out And indeed it is Bradley zimmer. I don't think has an extra base hit versus a righty so far this year So not a guy i'm turning to for value with this cleveland team and honestly like cleveland doesn't Really present us with value. They have herald ramires and i'm at rosario I'm at rosario not really a guy i want to use all that often because the power's not there I'm fine with herald ramires. We want to use righties or lefties. I should say Versus irania, but ramires is good versus righties 193 iso so far this year So I think if you're looking for a value play with in cleveland's let's put robbie ray in there first I do think that herald ramires is a Viable option you can turn to there. Let's put him in the outfield And $2,800 puts us to 30 57 It's going to be a tight squeeze for sure eddy rosario has been hitting for a bit more power recently is iso up to 140 So you can justify that for sure Ideally I'd have the salary to get to bobby bradley to get to jose ramires I might not for today just because I want to Stack course field and use robbie ray And that is tough to get those guys in there with that constraint But let's say you're not going course for this lineup You can make this work pretty easily with bradley ramires and ramires as well And then I guess it'd probably be eddy rosario as being the fourth guy in this stack he's Overall this year. It's not been a great year for rosario, but I think he works here So if you're looking for a four player stack three four five six on cleveland is one that works does not work if you're stacking Coors but does work overall for tonight. Let's talk to diffuse on youtube The blue jays seem viable from marcus semian all the way through the bat boy I like that, but are they too high salary for you? Values like randall gritching lorde scurriel are the guys who stand out to you for today. Let me clear out the Uh options here the blue jays facing chris flexon. I believe yep chris flexon The reason I was not on the blue jays this morning is that flexon does a really good job of limiting hard contact You see the hard hit rate is 42 that is actually a bodily gauge, but doesn't let up a ton of fly balls Let's check out flexon's profile over on fan grass to see What things have looked like for him recently since the sticky stuff discussion began But also look at which teams he's faced because if he's faced some soft teams Then we can potentially still justify Uh stacking against him. Okay, so from like june. We'll say june second. We'll toss that one in there He has a 3.04 eray his Strikeout ray 20% that's actually been creeping up his skill interactive eray 3.72 The fly ball ray 29% He's faced two good teams in there in oakland in minnesota Three of those four starts have been at home the one road start against detroit He did struggle so yeah, I think that you can justify going at the the blue jays for today I don't think they're like the top stack by any means Um, and they are pretty high salary. So keep that in mind The other thing to check with the blue jays is what the opposing pitcher does versus righty's flexon Not a big strikeout guy versus righty's 17 percent there The bat of ball data allows a 35 percent harder rate to righty's and a lower ground ball rate. So actually that does Work out pretty well So I can say that the blue jays definitely do work They're not going to be towards the top NMS stacks for today But there are a lot of teams that i'm going to say for today Yeah, that works because there are a lot of options. So 15 games late. They're a 30 total offense is playing I think the blue jays are in that tier of yeah, that works I think that definitely is an option for today as far as guriel lure days that is I don't tend to use them versus righties, but is isos up to 140 that's been improving. So You can get there gritchick is at 185 that also I believe has been on the rise So they work. Uh, let's check out other salaries here for the jays And see how that fits with robby ray So guriel's 27 a little higher than I hope it'd be gritchick is 28 So they're a little high salary They're not going to be towards the top of my list among strictly the high salary stacks But I don't think that they're off uh off the radar by any means they're definitely a play for stacks But not at the top of my list Jackie now you focus on dfs pretty doing the $25 tuesday Dinger promo. It's a great promo. So what Jackie is talking about is at fandall sportsbook You can place a 25 plus dollar bet. I don't know if I need the disclaimer in here But either way it's a promo that they offer I guess you can see full terms at sportsbook.fandall.com $25 bet every home run that's hitting the game you get a five dollars back I'm not going to give like direct advice on that because I don't know like legally if I can I probably can but like I don't know. I don't want to get in trouble. Anyway, let's talk about hypothetical games That may have a lot of dingers if we're trying to help out Jackie over on the sportsbook side of things I want a game that's hot The angels Yankees game is hot. I think that the angels themselves are good for for some home run bets Jared waltz was my Boring home run pick for this morning on the solo shot sticking with that. I think that he's in a good spot against james hentaya Other spots that could be good for home runs. I do like it's not both sides of the game But I do think that the the Padres reds game works specifically because of the Padres Trent Grisham was the other home run call from this morning. I will stick with that one as well He's batting fifth for today, which is pretty good. So I would say Grisham against Santeon could be a good option I don't think I get to I wouldn't go to Coors necessarily as being like my focal point if I'm trying to maximize home runs for the full game because Herman Marquez does such a good job limiting hard contact keeping the ball on the ground facing a hideous team So I don't think Coors actually is my Near the top of my list for that one for today So if I were to like zero in on One game where I would expect there to be a lot of home runs. It'd probably be the Padres reds game So looking at guys like Trent Grisham Um, you won't get us in trouble jackie. You're good. Um, I would look at guys like Trent Grisham Look at j crona worth. He's great for another tateese guys like that I think that you want to look at the Padres there as being a good good option for General home run vibes for tonight. Let's talk to Jerry. How do you feel about Herman Marquez and some Coors bats? I like the Coors bats very on board with that for the rocky side of things I can't quite get to Marquez because I I think the upside is a bit muted the numbers I have on Marquez are over his past seven starts with more sliders His strikeout rate down to 24 percent there the pirates strikeout rate versus righties is 22 percent I would like those numbers to be higher So I think that he'll pitch well today, which means that the the real world production for Marquez Should be good and I'm on board with that Um, I just don't want to go there for DFS because I think the upside might be a bit too limited And I think there are better options for today. So on board with the Rockies hitters not quite there with Marquez personally Cal says he followed the advice when pavetta to fit in a rocky stack with Ryan McMahon. I love it Pavetta again my top value for today. McMahon is $4,100. Trevor's story is 44 It's tough. But if you go pavetta or Joe Ross, that definitely works cal I like it. I am on board diffused pitching scenes loaded today It is who would be your top three value pitchers outside of Joe Ross nick pavetta. Oh I can't name three more. I can guarantee you that I am someone who doesn't like to use Value pitchers in general because usually value pitchers are value pitchers for a reason. They're not that good Joe Ross nick pavetta are good. So I will use them and I'm very okay with them As far as other value pitchers, it depends on your definition of value if you Believe that charlie morton counts that's at $9,000. I like him. Hopefully your kitty is undervalued at 95 So guys like that, they're not value pitchers by my definition That is guys below $9,000 But I think they're under salary the one pushback I would give a morton and your kitty is that they're both in repeat matchups Morton just faced the Mets last week or kitty just faced the Orioles Both those guys were good in those matchups But repeat matchups means that those guys just saw them that's scary to me So I really do think the value options for today are limited effectively to pavetta and Ross You could make a case for trevor rogers The concern I have there is always pitch count. It's it's actually more of an innings limit than a pitch count It seems like the rogers where they want to keep him below 150 for the year So they don't tend to let him go super deep into games. That's annoying That limits his upside pretty hot in Philadelphia for today So I think really it is pavetta ross and then if you want to Stretch the definition of value morton and were kitty work, but again repeat matchups for them Let's talk to dj marquez capralian snell or ross and which of their teams would be a good stack So among those pitchers the guy I am most in on is going to be joe ross capralians Another guy who just faced the same team last week facing the rangers He's in a great spot for pitching low temperature for today 61 degrees in oakland. That is the only game below 70 degrees. So Capralian works in that perspective and he could be another value guy to consider. We were talking about that before with diffuse So I consider capralian, but I prefer joe ross over him Due to what he's done in this stretch due to the good strikeout numbers Again, I pavetta above ross, but joe ross a solid number two among the value options here So to me it is uh pavetta and ross But ross the best one among those options As far as stacking those teams if you want to stack one of them the rockies Definitely the best stack among the offenses there Followed by the podge race and then the nationals rich hill is one of the guys who's had a big spin rate decrease Has not been super effective. So I actually think all three of those offenses are pretty good The a's would be good if their game were literally anywhere else, but it's a really rough part for stacking for tonight So I'm ranking those stacks rockies won podre's to nationals three a's four And ross the number one pitcher among those let's talk to austin swam over on twitch It's also up austin. He is the host of our usc podcast on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed austin is off this week because there's no usc So glad you're enjoying your time by talking to them. They'll be dfs Like the stacks and have in the lineup But the picture I can get to is just charlie morten Is there a reason to believe morten's latest resurgence is legit or should I tinker to go elsewhere? So the only concern I have with morten is that repeat matchup? I think everything else lines up really well for charlie morten for today The numbers we have here are The past seven starts since he ditched his sinker He has a 30 strikeout rate 3.25 skill interactive era really good bad at ball numbers facing the mets They're not a they're not a bad offense, but they're not a great offense either 92 w rc plus If you gave me this matchup in atlanta without the repeat factor I would say charlie morten would be tremendous But with the repeat factor being there I get a little bit nervous I still think that it's an option austin So if you love the lineup that you have I would be okay sticking with it But the only reason I have pause is because the mets did just see morten last week And that is a factor for me. So that's the one caveat I give there Maybe you can find a way to get to g alito at 9 8 But I think that if you can't find a way to get there don't want to go pavetta or ross I think that morten does work. Just keep in mind the repeat matchup a little bit scary Let's talk to kyle on youtube need a super low salary one off at shortstop at $2,300 or lower Anyone sticking out as having upside? Let's go over here to shortstop and Skitter all the way down To $2,300 Okay, doki. I went too far. Okay glaceous garcia. No. No Solano. No Andrus. No boo Yikes, um Nothing too good yet Uh, serio a contra. No It's looking pretty grim gonna say that. Uh, yarmé is facing morten. That's not ideal Let's keep on scrolling keep on scrolling. See if there is a minimum salary guy. There is not I can't find anyone for you kyle. I'm sorry. Um, I know it's a bad answer to say no But I actually can't find anybody I would really want to use down here for today Just because there aren't really guys with upside down here Like if I had to say one probably kyle farmer, I guess but I would really rather not do that Lux is facing gosman. Don't want to do that Uh, maybe go Fletcher. He's I don't like using him personally because he has no upside but like, you know, it's a decent stack Um, adonis or sorio. I'm gonna. Sorry is fine at $2,600 Dan's be swanson would work at $2,600. So kyle, I would try to reconfigure and Find a way to get 300 extra dollars to get up to swanson or sorio One of those guys and lock them in instead because my expectation for them is a lot higher Than those other guys. So I would hope to find a way there DJ likes lauri lauri garcia. I do not So if you trust dj, I trust dj personally, but I'm saying you trust dj in this specific topic Go garcia. I trust dj. I don't want to use garcia personally But I would try to find the 300 to get up to swanson or up to Amedro sorio for today Let's talk to dj about cow swerver. How long do you think this cow swerver hot street continues? How long we got dj? I think it's forever because he's cow swerver, man. Um, I had a dynasty league that started like Six or seven years ago, which isn't that long in terms of dynasty, but Cow swerver was catcher eligible. So like I was always a huge swerver fan So like, oh man, like he's gonna be this massive massive stud out of indiana gonna be a catcher. It's gonna be great Hurts his knee loses his catcher eligibility. The league shut down before last year It's gross But I'm happy for cow swerver the residual good vibes still there and I'm happy for him Just wish that he would have done this as a catcher eligible guy Back in the day for that dynasty league. Let's go back to gerry San Diego, washington and cleveland seem to be the way to go other than colorado bats Who's your favorite stacks for today? I like most of those gerry. Actually, I wouldn't push back on any of them They're actually all pretty solid colorado is one uh cleveland's two san diego is three Other options for today. boston is very much an option for today basin brad keller their implied total is like 97 I would say the astros are a Slight bit above Facing lakens lakens probably not going to go super deep in the game I'd expect him around 60 or so pitches, but that's a bullpen We can take advantage of so the astros and play once again The reason I don't put the astros above the padres is this it is going to be likely roof shut in houston for today Which means temperature around 70 or so degrees whereas it is 90 degrees in san diego So give me san diego over houston for today But houston above uh It's either houston or boston ranked fourth one or the other i could go either way on that That would be next up for me. That's probably the top ones for today I do think that the nationals work against rich hill because of the angle around where hey, you know, he's slid back a bit with the uh with the spin rate going down, but I think they're more of like a Secondary stack versus one. I am prioritizing for today. Okay jerry's home rung calls are in he has Kyle schwerber around the cunha jr. I like both those schwerber's facing a lefty So that means the people may be off him. I think that's totally fine So uh jerry in generals had a good track record with lefty on lefty home rung calls So in jerry, we trust with cal schwerber keeping the streak alive for today with dj He likes a cunha as well. I do too. No reason for me to dislike a cunha here. He is uh facing Tyler mcgill mcgill just saw him last week. I think mcgill's gonna be a pretty good pitcher personally He had good numbers in double a and triple a earlier on this year and actually dj just asked about this good timing dj Uh, should I stack atlanta with them facing mcgill? So I think mcgill will be good long term However, I am worried about the fact that he's facing the braves for the second consecutive game. It is decently hot weather in atlanta for today 83 degrees just a tough spot for mcgill to be in And they did see him pretty well last week. So I think the braves definitely work for stacking That's why I like jerry's home rung call was ron of the cunha jr. I would throw out azi albies He was a home run call for us last week. I don't know if I picked him on the day where he hit his home run But he did a dinger last week pretty fun, dude. So I think that um I think that I would Be inclined to go with the braves for sure. They tend to give us a lot of value Let's see if their lineup is out yet. I didn't see it earlier. I overlooked it. Okay, so Yeah, oh, whoa. Oh, whoa. Whoa. Whoa. Whoa. Whoa. Guillermo heredia moved up to six in the order. That's weird Why did that happen? Okay, so let's check this out And see if we should use Guillermo heredia batting in sixth for atlanta for today I'll monta be moved down to eighth or sorry Contrary to be moved down to eighth Does lower me on him quite a bit. I've been using him recently, but that's enough where I'll be down Heredia has a 215 iso versus righties. That's awesome. Okay. So let's build out a braves stack here Because why not? I'm gonna put heredia in there Because sixth with that power profile actually not too bad. So let's put heredia in there at $2,400 That is nice. We're trying to get to robbie ray and coors field. Okay. I like this like this start Austin rally batting fourth. I'm gonna take swanson Batting fifth that gives us three separate value plays on this team And that means I can probably get to Jerry's guy akunya Here it does mean I'm probably not gonna be able to stack coors field So if you're going akunya, you probably can't stack coors. Maybe you want to settle for I'll I'll be there. We do that. We have 32 25 left. That's totally fine. So I think this is your core stack with the braves That's actually a three four five six that actually worked out pretty well and they're in sequential order on the page here Wow, look at that. Thanks braves. That's so considerate of you I think this one does work if you're trying to stack coors field with the with robbie ray for today Now diffuse is asking if we could rank the rockies. Let's do it because their lineup is out Let's uh refresh this page here. There's no Uh No brennan rogers for today for the rockies and no cj crone in the lineup Why do I never know where their games are sequentially? Okay, so We've got this. I'm gonna put yonathan, uh Yonathan daza in there first batting second He's not a super high upside guy, but he's batting second at coors field like it's really just tough to say no to that So, uh daza will be in there. I'm gonna go. Let's check out what hampsons been doing versus righty so far Pull up, uh, the rocky is here Because I know I'm gonna have to save salary just because I I do want to use ray with this team Topia works so I should probably just get to him Uh hampson 119 with six stolen bases I'm gonna prefer topia over him. So let's go there Let's go All right, let's check out joshua fuentes see his numbers versus righties 137 I says actually not the worst 41 fly ball rate It's not terrible. It's not great. Definitely not like actively seeking this out But hey, we're trying to stack the rockies With ray so we can't be that greedy which means that I'm now deciding between blackman story And mcman for the fourth guy on this roster Okay, so mcman 269 iso. He's disgusting got some steals to story 175 blackman 133 So let's go with ryan mcman at second base as our one rocky here 2625 is tough, but you've got swanson. You've got heredia. You've got some other guys there, too So I think you can make this work and I'd like to get there So ranking the studs mcman one story two blackman three If we put topia among the value plays he's number one followed by daza followed by fuentes So hopefully that helps to fuse but the rocky is overall a place you want to go for today DJ j. Crona worth a home run call. Yes or no j. Crona worth always where they home run call especially when he is In Cincinnati for today fantastic situation for hitting so j. Crona worth I tend to be higher on him the most But I'm okay with that personally. Let's check out the rockies. You actually we've got like two minutes left So I'll just pull up the or sorry the Padres quick And check out their lineup Crona worth batting third. Love it Trent Grisham is batting fifth for today. So we're going to put him in We're going to put famine and we're going to put Crona worth in there if we do that we are at 2980 that might make it tough to get to Tati so again like you can use geolito You can use pavetta any moreton you can use Ross as well You can find ways to make this work You might be able to make that work with a braze stack, too So at least give it a shot with the Padres. It's tough You're probably not going to get them with cores unless you exclude Tati, which is fine But at least give it a shot. I think it is worthwhile for today Calces if you're not using it with McMahon. Are you actually stacking the Rockies? I agree Cal. I love Ryan McMahon another remnant of That that old dynasty league with Kyle Schwarber Joe Ross on that team, too So we're going to have to do like a lineup here with like My old dynasty friends. Joe Ross, Kyle Schwarber, Ryan McMahon Rugnet Odor not gonna work, but hey, you know everyone else we're good to go That is all that I have for today here on the mlb DFS side of things But as always we're rolling on through here still at 430 with Aaron Dolan talking game for the eastern conference finals We got the Bucks and the Hawks and I think this game is going to be A pretty interesting one to diagnose because Aaron I got no idea what to expect at a tray young because of the health so What are you doing here? Like how do you what are you expecting out of him tonight? Yeah, I think a lot of times when a player Quote unquote is injured, but I mean it is a bone contusion or bone bruise. Excuse me I think he'll be fine. So you'll see like his points prop come down It's a 27 and a half for tonight And I want to be surprised if he came out and scored like 40 points tonight and surprise us all I feel like it's one of those nights especially in Atlanta Okay, does that mean that we are on the Hawks for tonight or no? So I think the Bucks win, okay, I think the Hawks could cover Okay, okay, so we're gonna pass it over to Aaron now right now. Yeah, okay I like it. Hey, you know if we can get the like a same game parlay between tri-young and like, uh, you know All this stuff going that could be fun I think it should be a good game tonight. I'm gonna tune in again I've decided and see how things go but Aaron good luck tonight and have fun today. Yeah, thanks for setting us up there with some mlb dfs All right guys, how's everybody doing today? Happy Tuesday I thought all day was Wednesday was hoping it was Thursday with a big weekend coming up for the july weekend So all we got to do is get through the week But today we have a huge game for the Bucks versus the Hawks. It's back down in Atlanta So excited for this Milwaukee as you know has a two one lead in this series And there's a lot of things to get into in terms of this game So I'm excited to be talking to you guys about it as always you can always drop some comments Into the chat and I will try to answer as many as I possibly can I'm also going to answer some of the questions that you guys asked me on twitter as well So dj cas here. I hope I'm saying that right if I if I butcher your name. I sincerely apologize. I'm so bad at names Saying go hawks. So that's interesting. I'm not sure if you're from Atlanta But yeah, I feel like obviously we want to see the series tie just to have Just to have a really fun enjoyable series, but exciting. All right Let's kind of get into the lines for tonight. So right now the fandom sports book you see the Bucks They are laying six and a half the total at two 18 and a half now Milwaukee opened Minus five and that has moved up. I've seen it as high as minus seven today Mostly due to tray young news that he was put on the injury list as questionable But said two reporters that he does plan on playing Um, does he play on planning plan on playing? He hurt his right foot as you know in game three in that third quarter there He ended up stepping on the ref's foot He seemed very upset about that but an MRI showed that it was just a bone bruise Which is a good thing because had it been anything else for tray young and he had been taken out I think this series would wrap up and the next two games the Bucks winning easily But another notable injury right now. It's not technically an injury. I shouldn't call it that But yannis is dealing with some cap soreness. So that's something people are taking to taking into account for tonight As well, but as for the total so this opened at 2 21 and continues To move down as you can see it's now at two 18 and a half a lot of the trends are towards the under And we'll talk about some of those trends in a little bit But just in general wanted to give you some of the opening lines and where we stand out right now on the fandall sports book If you wanted to bet on this Um, dj cast here also writing perfect only person to ever get it right and from chicago But at vegas go tonight span and still depressed about that So this is something that i've talked about on multiple shows just the fact that people can be fans of different Like sports teams, but not all from the same place. Like I feel like since i'm from philly I have to like the sixers. I have to like the phillis. I have to like the eagles and ride with them But that's funny that you are from chicago, but still a golden night span Very sorry for your loss. You know a lot of people from vegas are very upset, but all around great team They've actually been great since they started up So and vegas seems to be a fun place not that i've ever been there But I eventually am going to make my way to vegas someday and honestly going to nhl games are so fun So I feel like a vegas go tonight's game would not be a bad thing But um, let's get into some other things in terms of the trends for tonight since I did say I was going to mention them As for the bucks for now against the spread in their last four games on one day's rest Four and one against the spread in their last five games But they're two and five against the spread in their last seven games As a road favorite as for the hawks two and five against the spread in their last seven conference finals games So we've kind of seen the spread mingling around this point, especially for game one game two and things like that um But with the spread I understand so it was minus five it opened up then we heard the tray young news So then it's shot up to minus seven. So now that it's at minus six and a half. I don't mind that number I just have a weird feeling that the hawks would be able to cover because of a couple things that I've seen On odds fire. So again, if you don't know what odds fire is you can go to it You can see where bets and money are coming in on a particular game according to the fandom sports book So for this game as you can see 79 of the money is on milwaukee to cover the spread But as for the bets 44 percent. So this to me is a little Making me think should we fade the public here and go at that 21 percent sometimes I when it's You know from 85 let's say to 100 percent in terms of money or bets percentage wise I always seem to fade the public and it works out As for the money line as you can see all the bets and money coming in on milwaukee, which isn't a surprise I hope people are putting that into a parlay because if you're taking them minus 270 You're not going to get a great return and for those that just started betting I think a lot of times the money line in total seems to be the easiest route to go and Just not understanding the value perspective of that taking a team at minus 270 Obviously something that you don't want to do As for the total kind of split there 46 percent of the money is on the over and 49 percent of the bets are on the over as for trends The under is six and one in the hawks last seven overall end as an underdog The under is five one and one in the bucks last seven playoff games As a favorite so things trending towards the under there also head to head the under is four No in the last four meetings in atlanta between these teams so not surprising that it opened to 21 and continues to move down um It's we're not going to get into that. All right. Let's get into some of the questions that you guys had asked me on twitter Because I'll get to those First we'll start off with and again if I mess up these names Sincerely apologize They speaks ass should filly keep and Simmons someone told me they should I would love to hear the argument on why they should keep Ben Simmons. I think at this point He's had enough time along with dwelling bead to have the process actually Fully process and us win something. I think the way he played in the finals or excuse me the playoffs was absolutely atrocious And there's really no Great way to speak of him right now I understand he's one of the best defensive players but at some point you can't believe Not being able to shoot foul shots on Having a bad mindset and that he can't get it right in his mind If you are a player in philadelphia, we are not the type of fan base either To go out and miss a couple free throws. We will absolutely let you hear it for the rest of your life So i'll be shocked if he actually does remain in filly Just given that everything that happened this playoffs absolutely terrible I'm very upset that filly is not playing in the books right now in the eastern conference finals All right, moving on Babylon flip Maybe i'm not saying that right too early to ask about college football seeds and win totals If not early leans and likes and will fandal eventually release totals for group Of five schools. Thanks. So as for that I'm not sure if they are going to release the totals at some point I can figure that out since we are kind of focusing on the nba playoffs right now As well as the nhl playoffs and some of the other major league baseball Games that are going on i'm not getting into college football just yet Still have to do a ton and ton of research on that But i'm very excited for the nfl season college football season. It is my favorite I know it is the most hectic time and there's so many things going on But I absolutely love that type of grind because I feel like lately It's kind of felt like a lull in sports a little bit even though we have obviously the nba playoffs going on as well as the nhl It's just different. I feel like the nfl season is just a totally different animal But at some point we will be doing these what we're going to be continuing doing these live streams And then i'll be able to answer more college football questions closer to the season All right, moving on andrew burn y'all burn y'all 87 asked best bet for finals mvp as far as likelihood and value So let's go to that on the fandom sports book first We should actually just cover the team's futures real quick. So the bucks minus 115 suns plus 145 Clippers and hawks yesterday were at 32 to 1 the clippers have moved to 10 to 1 after their win last night over the suns And the hawks have actually moved down as well from 32 to 1 to 28 to 1 So just keep all these numbers in mind. So basically when you want to bet into these player futures It's kind of a personal preference to me I think a lot of people don't like their money tied up Also, you can obviously bet on a player and their team get knocked out before it actually happened So I feel like uh, some people are really into the futures bets some are not in terms of value though Again, it is kind of a preference So let's say you do think that the buck speed at lana and tray young's going to be, you know Nursing that injury and whatnot they go on they're going to play even the suns or the clippers And you think they're going to win obviously yannis of plus 115 is technically still Good value because you're getting it a plus money, but obviously it's not the best Then behind is devin booker and chris paul I do believe if the suns were to come out and play Great and actually win it all I think they would give it to d book But they could give it to chris paul So either of those players at plus 300 or plus 500 is great as for paul george 11 to 1 if the clippers are able to Make it out of the western conference finals playing the finals and actually win it paul george easily is going to win this So in terms of the value and likelihood chris middleton and down i'm not looking at This is anything 16 and 1 i'm not looking at at this point. So paul george best value likelihood Out of everyone I like devin booker and chris paul with the value and likelihood they could win But yannis obviously makes a lot of sense We know why he's plus 115 odds makers are thinking at this point the bucks are going to win And as we can see in the team futures minus 115 eventually that money was going to flip to minus money Especially with a lot of the news which right young today. So that's not too surprising But in terms of likelihood as I mentioned um These top four players yannis devil chris paul and paul george. That's the only type of value I understand when you start seeing their players, let's say like chris middleton 16 to 1 I just don't see a world where the bucks win and they wouldn't give it to yannis I mean he could have the most standout game ever um in terms of it But I don't think chris middleton is going to be the reason that the bucks win at all I could be proven wrong but in terms of finals mvp I also thought about this for the super bowl I had taken tom brady and a couple people were taking um Some of the wide receivers that were I think 17 to 1 18 to 1 I was just like at that point so high I don't think that these players would even receive the ward if their team had won Talking about the kansas city chiefs in that regard But good good question. Um again personal preference for the futures market um Mad wasted asked when will it be available in new york? I'm assuming you're wondering when fandals going to be available in new york We all want it to happen sooner rather than later, but again up to legislation So I don't have an exact date for you, but as I said hopefully sooner Rather than later Oh, I'm gonna mess this one up Santino bambino I really could be butchering that three asked is there a bet for how many push-offs paul george gets away with It would be funny to have some of these markets. I know that um the one comment I had about ben simmonds I had said on a live stream that it'd be awesome if when ben simmonds had to go to the line If there was a live market that came up how many of the free throws would he make one or two? Would he miss both of them? You could live bet it that way Some of these markets would be honestly awesome and it's a lot of fun But it's not up to fandal to make the markets. They'd have to get them approved So while it seems like it'd be a really fun one, um And obviously one that people would love to bet on again for fun We do not have that but it would be really cool All right, some of these i'm just going to start ripping through chuck Or I should say road builder underscore tx. I'm assuming that's texas. Why does england win when I bet against them? I am unsure of that. I don't have an answer for that Chief auto 96. Who do you have for player props on hawks versus bucks? So why don't we get into some of those markets that I like? We'll start off with the popular market. Um Sorry, I'm just pulling up some of my notes that I took for that So as for the first half spread, this is one of the markets that I've been talking about a lot in terms of this Buck's Atlanta team right now It is bucks minus three and a half and in the last game the game was exactly tied At the half but what I wanted to note from something that I had read the bucks were three of 14 at that point While the hawks were hot 10 of 22 So at this point, I think that the bucks would have positive regression in that first half They have to come out faster and be able to sustain leads So I actually like the bucks first half spread minus three and a half at minus 105 on the fandals sports book for tonight I know again the game is in atlantis was sometimes that could give a team an advantage but I think that Especially with the news of tray young and him being potentially limited to some capacity I do like the bucks minus three and a half at the beginning there now as for Away team total points and home team total points. There were some interesting stats that I read so as for The bucks at one 12 and a half the walkies the number one ranked scoring offense in the league Biggest reason for success in the series is completion dominance dominance on the front court So for them you could easily bet I feel the over on this I think this is going to be a game where they didn't shoot lights out last game But they could hit over in terms of that as for the home team. It's at 106 And a half and actually that just moved up a point It was 105 and a half about an hour ago So people are betting me over for that clearly since the line is moving up Atlanta has scored 105. Excuse me. It's scored under 105 and a half in nine of the 15 playoff games Hitting this under 60 percent of the time So if you like the under on that minus 118 again, that line just moved up one point from 105 to 106 And a half as for some other player props that I like when we get into these so Trey young points prop no surprise That these are still up even though obviously they have him questionable. He's going to play in this game. No doubt It's at 27 and a half So for this I personally would not count out trey young because I did do that in one game And I was very adamant that he was was not going to hit his player props So for this I would definitely take the over. It's minus 116 He's had 33.6 assists through the first three games against the bucks He scored 35 in game three this of course, even though he had um hurt his right foot there I mean, it's a tricky number in general 27 and a half because I feel like it should be higher But I can't count trey young out. I did it before and I really regretted it So he might as well take the over on that one as for chris middleton. So as we know last game Standout performance in the fourth quarter. He had 20 points alone Which was more than the alana hawks combined for in that fourth quarter. They only had 17 points so for his player prop he is at 23 and a half. I like the over on this This was also a player prop that I've mentioned a couple times over the last few weeks taking middleton over props For his points. He's been playing great. So I'm I still would play this to the over. I know that some people are going to be saying he's not going to be having um Or I guess negative regression in the sense that he had 38 points that he scored and he won't hit that again I don't think he's going to hit 38 points again, but I think he definitely could hit Over his points prop Let's move on to of course since we're right They're honest 33 and a half. So as we know he is having some calf tightness So i'm not surprised that the under 33 and a half is minus 122 He is currently averaging 33 points 10.67 rebounds in the series So I personally like in terms of his points prop under 33. He had 33 last game in atlanta But I just It's confusing to me sometimes when you see a player like him to have over 33 and a half of plus money I think I would just take the under in that maybe put that into a same game parlay Wouldn't be my favorite one points in general aren't always my favorite player props I feel like you can find a lot more props that hit in terms of player rebounds player assist And there was one I wanted to mention uh drew holidays So he went two of 11 last game from the field and had 12 assists and he's averaging right now three rebounds 20 points 10 assists so if you take him to record 10 rebounds Or excuse me 10 assists. Sorry. That's my fault Let's see They take that down drew out a plus 168 that just moved down from plus 170 So this is something you might want to take him at Also in the assist market you are getting a minus 152 So I want to take them on that so you can either take it Take him in this market as you can see to record four plus assists six plus assists so on and so on or you can actually go down And find their specific one. This is over eight and a half of plus 116. This is still technically good value I think anything in player props at plus money is good value All right, so that's some of the player props that I like let me get to some of these questions It's mr. Jackie moon saying I've been telling people to write legislatures Legislators excuse me about it. I'm sure this is in regard to when will it be live in new york You also asked can you check out the player performance doubles after if you get a chance player performance doubles? Let's see player performance doubles See if we can do this Sorry trying to get to things quicker than There's a trouble. Here we go. All right, player performance doubles Giannis milwaukee to win plus 220 all of this a plus money. So this is actually great um Let's see If there's one that stands out to me, I mean, Giannis said 40 plus points milwaukee to win I don't like that 35 plus points if you like over His points prop at 33. This would be a great player performance double to take just if you think he is going to have a light south game I kind of like this drew holiday a plus assist milwaukee to win plus 138 I feel like in this market though a lot of people love to take the long shots the 10 to 1 tray young 35 plus points That landed a win things like that That could get you some great value, but I hope that helps you in terms of this I know somebody recently had asked what was for example the doubles doubles market It's just who's gonna win the first half who's gonna win the second half and then for this It's a player's performance and then who wins the game at the end But this is a really fun market to bet into for sure And there's obviously more people Um and things you can bet on in terms of the milwaukee buck side as you can see all of these compared to The alana hawks on the right hand side Let me see if there's any more questions Ed davis asked do you think that the milwaukee bucks can outlast the phoenix suns in the championship? Should they yes But there's something about the bucks and even when I read so many articles that people just don't trust them in the playoffs and I should given that they beat the nets They beat kevin durant. I understand James harden was injured at one point and then you have kari erving got injured But they were able to capitalize on some of those injuries, which was great But so you're going against the best player in the world kevin durant in my eyes Maybe some people don't feel like that. So that was a huge The fact that they won game seven the barkley center Says enough about that team But for me during the regular season I always said f the bucks and the f is for fade because they would Always when I needed them to win never live up to my expectation And then times when I completely doubted them out they have exceeded my expectation So in terms of if I think the milwaukee bucks can outlast the phoenix suns I think that would be an amazing matchup I really would need devin booker and chris paul to have basically lights out games. Um I think they can but will they like I wouldn't be surprised if the milwaukee bucks got to a game Five six or seven and just drop the ball for some random reason I think that some people are now trying to say that there's like a semi big three on the bucks team Which I don't agree with. I think it's yannis and basically nobody so he I think needs another shooter around him aside from chris middleton drew holiday obviously which has been great In terms of putting him on tray young except for that first game When I was very adamant that he hit under his player prop because of drew holiday, but I'm trying to answer it a yes or no, and I just cannot decide at this moment They should be able to outlast the phoenix suns But I wouldn't be surprised if they weren't able to I'm not a definitive. Yes milwaukee bucks a hundred percent They're absolutely going to win it at this point. I'll be interesting to see this game tonight I've lana hawks can even even the series up so We will see Let me go through some of these other ones So those are some of the player props also some things um that I was reading if tray young is limited obviously you have kevin harter He's averaging um 11 points three rebounds three assists So maybe you want to take his under point prop of 12 and a half lou williams He's currently having this series 1.7 assists one rebounds four points averaging that so he actually has been stepping up too much But if you think he's going to need to at some point in this game maybe take some of his player props and then gallinari 13 points He's averaging right now in 2.3 rebounds So three players that you could also try to capitalize on in terms of some of the player markets If tray young is out and some people are going to have to step up It's mr. Jackie moon again writing. I feel like he's my number one fan of this show Hopefully cp3 can stay healthy with his unlucky history. I thought the hard fall he had was going to keep him down Hopefully he can stay healthy as we know this entire Season is about players not staying healthy and we've seen this continuously and it's something obviously I talked about before on a live stream. LeBron James had come out Uh during the playoffs already saying, you know, these injuries were pretty insane They've never had this many injuries, especially to some of the star players. Hopefully cp3 can stay healthy. I hope he does Obviously we didn't have him for the first two games of the series because of those cobin 19 protocols But still last game. I think he looked a lot better and kind of shook off the rust So good for him and I hopefully he can stay healthy because I don't want to see any more injuries I'm sick of seeing injuries because it absolutely just ruins your future's best Sterling gentry jr. Said herder is not ready for the playoffs next year. He will be Is not ready for the playoffs next year. He will be way better Yeah, I mean I think that in terms of the lana hawks in general not a lot of people saw them being here Not a lot of people saw them getting past philadelphia. So In general, uh, I can agree with you on that, but I mean What are you gonna do? It's mr. Jackie moon said again, I always bet on john collin's points and rebounds for some reason He always seems like a safe bet. I agree with that I absolutely agree with that especially in terms of today for his rebounds. I'm taking him over 10 plus rebounds at minus 106 um He's averaging over 15 and a half rebounds in the last three games, which is pretty crazy So I always take him over for points for points and for rebounds, especially in this playoffs and it's been great It's worked out for me every time. So jackie moon I hope that you do that again today on the fan dual sports book all these markets are available Right now and then also just want to quickly get to a promo that we have on Have for tonight as you guys probably already know It is the br betting three by two. So two three pointers made in the first three minutes This is for game four. It's boosted to plus 140. There are shooters obviously for atlanta and for the bucks So this is always a fun one to take take an action right away. Obviously aside from the first basket And then just wanted to quickly mention there are some same game parlays that hit last night 15 dollars turning into over $11,000. This is an insane 10 leg Same game parlay. So for those that don't know the same game parlay is exclusive to the fan dual sports book You can bet on a ton of things in one at same game. Just go to this tab You can obviously just go down through some of these are so many markets build your own And like I mentioned, I mean this better 15 dollars into 11,000. What a great monday night coming off the weekend this was also just Another one great one. This was a lot of money. He put down four hundred and forty dollars, but it did turn into Obviously 10.5 thousand dollars. So Good for him, but the same game parlays are available the br betting three by two and then other promos for the nba that are going on right now, including your the promotions tab nba enhanced odds for the playoffs place your first five dollar wage on any nba single game money line received 30 to One odd so a fun one to do for new customers Family friends make sure you tell them about that because it's going on right now for the nba playoffs Mr. Jackie Moon saying I need to manifest that into my life. I completely agree I also need to manifest it into my life as well But hopefully this helps you guys in terms of the odds boost as we know game four is tonight This didn't change at all during this show, which was good We had the bucks laying six and a half for tonight total of two 18 and a half trends towards The under and then the bucks lying keeps moving out in favor of them But just moved down half a point from minus seven So good luck in all of your bets tonight guys. I hope you do great And yeah, go jump on the fandom sports book right now and start placing on your bets And I will see you tomorrow for 30 to 5 p.m. Eastern right here on this q&a