 So we're at 10 19 a.m. We climbed above 60 bucks. You saw early this morning We trade down to a low about 59 45 back up to 60 20 and we're trading right at $60 Nice thing jumping over an 8x $60 happens to line up whether you want the 11 a.m. Expirations pretty good the noon expirations, okay, or we're gonna get the 230 expirations So this will be nice. We'll jump through and hopefully it stays right We're within two pennies right now at $60, so we're gonna look at setting up two sides of the trade right Volatility maybe exposure on each side You have the contract rating at 60 oh two This would be your bullish spread for 11 a.m. From 60 to 61 50 You got about three pennies of intrinsic value there costing 17 and vice versa same thing 11 a.m. Expiration buck 50 to the downside You're selling that one the only difference between the two being that you have about three to four pennies in the bullish side And so you're looking about $30. Yeah, which is 30 cents right away from 60 bucks pretty good for your 11 a.m. It's okay jump to the noons That's pretty cool. Yeah, not bad And let's just see how much more they're gonna charge you so it's been laying here at this 59 60 for five days now So this is interesting now. This is where okay, so about 21 on the Bullish and that's gonna in the bearish is gonna be a little bit cheaper as we take back 20 20 Let's just 20 and 20. It's not bad 40 bucks. So you're looking at 40 cents till noon, right? Now these you have a buck 50 on either side, right? Now the daily is gonna be a big one that you're gonna have five dollars not bad Because you're not gonna have to pay a lot of premium for that extra two dollars three dollars and fifty cents Most of what you're paying for is the ability to hold that until 230. Yes, here's your bullish trade 27 now we're trading right at $60. This is actually all premium So I already know the bearish one's gonna be the same exact price, right? We'll pull it up, but it better be Five five point five point four cents. Yeah, 27. I can already tell 60 minus 73 You know 60 minus 15 73 27, right? So you're looking at 54 pretty cool. Yeah till 230 and You got over about 50 because by 230 oil could potentially move more than a dollar 50 So it is nice to have you know over that level With the IA coming at 10 30 on the dot, right? Particularly at this level. So yeah, let's pull up the actual Go for it. We take a look at this contract. We're gonna see you folks. We can come up with these numbers last night and The yesterday, I believe you got the 60 38 Okay. Yeah, right. Yeah, I believe so. Maybe it's 37. What was it? 38 yep, and 39 it's the high now the way that I look at this is that You know yesterday you did push, you know, we had some good volume. That's six hundred eighty six thousand contracts Okay, going into 655. So that's telling me that's gonna test that even though it's a penny Santa wants to go up there now. We're gonna sideways move out here today. So it's gonna be interesting then you know I would say that that's only that's only third less than 40 pennies away from where we're at, right? Oh, I know yeah But but my point is is that if you break this this is this if you break this with conviction You can really go okay, you know, okay, but guess what? This is what's stopping us and its tracks right that $5 a day down an oil which is 60 34 Yeah, exactly down to 55 83 right, you know, and that would barely cover your cost on the 11s or the new ones Yeah, you thought you were gonna face some you know, and I'm just there's a seller there Yeah, the seller right there. Yeah in most times folks when you're talking about a big move like that That's a producer, you know like imagine, you know, you got a nice big bats up full of oil It's like, okay, I'll be happy with $60. How many you want you want to buy? Yeah selling full wood in the market. This is the exact same thing is selling you sell water in the market You deliver to the market guess what you're all set. Yes for sure. So let's see This is the top live that they pull up on Bloomberg about 10 minutes ahead of time. So let's see what they're looking for Something odd's been happening in Cushing, Oklahoma We saw a big rally in WTI spreads this week and the June December spread even moved into backwardation Despite more than 46 million barrels of oil in tanks inventories have been drawing this month, which is counter seasonal given refinery maintenance season Traders are whispering quality issues. Let's see quality issues gain related to how much deliverable WTI is available. It's interesting. Yeah, this is gonna be an important area to watch in the coming weeks So that's saying that yeah, you have the oil, but how much can you actually deliver? The oil that's ready to be yeah, and after the process the next one The quality yes, and the next one speaks to two and that's it's so cool about commodities There is such a fundamental aspect to this, you know where because we spent much of this past week watching the ITC chemical tank fire Oh, yeah, it's all right. I mean amazing and the Reignition and contamination of the Houston ship channel the closure of the ship channel likely affecting refineries I expect to see impact divided between today's report and next week's data That's gonna you know you can't get ships through the channel with the oil, right? It's it's that's that's gonna affect this number now granted There we go, right? Yeah more on the ITC fire from last week There could be a lot of noise in the import export figures to given how many terminals had to shut That may cause a backup of crude in the Gulf Coast where we are expecting roughly double the volumes of what we import Yeah quite a fireman and those chemical fires Not an easy thing to to put out as you see no doubt. Yeah, so we get Six minutes. We'll see those babies going. Let's just check back. I'm curious if we're still sitting right at that $60 mark as we come in Yeah, it's just hanging right there waiting for those numbers. We'll check. Okay. Yeah Welcome back folks down right now is trading up 64 NASDAQ is a flat S&P's up for and crude inventories rose 2.8 million barrels, so let's see what that's doing to the market. You got it and we were looking for of course for decline Yeah, that's the median analyst estimate jumping back to the platform Nonetheless, so it looks like you did have an immediate spike from 10 the 1025 bar to the 1030 where it Gapped lower right and opened at 59 86. So you got a 14 cent gap on like literally the second in between the bars Yeah, but we're right back at $60 just like And of course, you know, you should have we're looking for a decline We now have more like four million more than the estimate in this So you got all that extra oil people should be paying lower prices for the same amount. Yeah supply equals demand, right? economics of the year the curves But nonetheless man oil looking for higher prices 5996 and making any of those trades the last thing you wanted $60 is that your max being total loss of The investment on either side, but we're a minute into the news Yeah, and I would expect we're gonna get a little volatility in both sides of it So there's the breakdown. We see a surplus 2.8 million barrels Median estimate had been a decline of about 2.5 million barrels Cushing was up 541,000 Pad 3 was up 4.5 million barrels gasoline pretty close looking for a decline of 3 million came in at minus 2.8 million Dislits a million off but a decline of two versus a decline of one Still cold out there. So here's part of what we're reading, right? Refinery utilization. Yeah, a big miss They were looking for a plus point five you get a decline of 2.3 And I wonder how we see kind of the analysis of this because you know what we will we saw down here ahead of the news When they were talking about what we're looking for Let's see we're down We'll find it but they were talking about those where refineries may be being closed or even getting the oil to those refineries, etc But it looks like plenty of oil man. Let's check back on oil Okay, there you go. There we go So that five-minute bar that we were looking at got us back up right the high 60 oh for and then we actually finished that I'll close not that bar 59 69 so 30 cents and now we're sitting 59 78 to recap You're gonna do those volatility trades. You're the noon cost you about $30 I believe you had the excuse me the 11 a.m. Cost you $30 the noon was about 40 Yeah, and if you want to go all the way until 230 with the $5 it was gonna be about 54 cents away from 60 bucks that you would need so you need more than 20. That's you know what I mean as in we haven't quite got a move It's pretty wild. That's for a big man. You're on this to 60 doll level man Yeah, you know, that's that's that's a big number and of course what's gonna happen before we know it Is that I guess what you're gonna get back into driving season? So oil should have the wind that's about its back, you know coming into what two months is may right April man Yeah, well April's Monday. So it's almost right. Exactly. It's almost one month. Yeah, you know may 30th In the gasoline market is the beginning of the driving season till basically August 15th or something So so there's some of the analysis out here in terms of the refinery runs We were talking about took a tumble at a time when they have typically started to creep higher after seasonal maintenance So they must get in that maintenance right after the refineries go crazy Thanks to a spate of fires and other upsets the Gulf Coast was especially hit hard with crude demand down 294,000 barrels a day That may have contributed to the 4.6 million barrel increasing crude stocks in the region That's a monster that is Yeah, and that's what so you know refineries aren't running right you got all the crude And you just got to leave it in crude It becomes a crude surplus because you can't get into gasoline. There you go 877 9276 648 we have these dial up 8 now as that gets down 11 S&P's up one and a half come right back That's fine. I was happy with oil before you that's right. So 59 75 Okay, only a quarter move on on quite a miss, but we'll see man. The day is young We'll see stay right there folks. We've got fast market coming up next that of course We get our member of the battles of Chapman Steve Rhodes. They wiped you back this afternoon. Thanks, man. Thanks, man Oh