 Okay, testing testing one two, just gonna wait for people to get online Just gonna welcome people to the session get everyone back online first live one that we've done I think for 2022. So I hope everyone is doing well Let me know in the chat on YouTube with a comment if you can see and hear me. Okay Still got about five minutes until payrolls hits. So hopefully we can have a quick scan over that Let's see what's going on Joshua. Hope you're well. Happy new year to you. Okay. I'm just gonna Share my link with some of my colleagues one sec And then we're ready to rock and roll. All right. Well, look, let's have a quick look at payrolls and Yeah, wanted to jump on Well, I'll give you the breakdown then I'll give you my overall assessment and take of what I think We might see today and we'll have a quick look at the charts will obviously look at the live reaction and so forth But first things first just having a quick run-through with payrolls as ever Don't forget that there is more than meets the eye It's more than just one number albeit that will be the first input first output in terms of the actual Reaction that you're likely to see that meaning then that you could see quite explosive initial Kind of more algo led move and then the subsequent reaction effect is really determined by how out of line This figure is we've got a range on the headline from minus 400k to plus roughly 400k And then we're looking out for the unemployment rate expected to remain static as the same as the previous month 3.9% range 3.7 to 4 we've then got average hourly earnings Which obviously will be very closely watched as well in context of the fact that inflation a real key Consideration of course around the Fed's idea of tightening more rapidly through 2022 That's expected month a month at point five your in here at five point two percent a couple things then While just looking at the primary dealer guess is for non-farm payrolls It's always good for for a bit of a laugh to be fair But this is the range on on the street of HSBC is kind of the most bullish They're looking for a top-line figure of changing non-farms at 225 followed by credit Suisse at 200 a most bearish I think this is Nat West markets presumably at minus 350 in goldman's and MS down at 250 and 215 respectively remember the median consensus is for a positive number, but don't forget we have had a couple of things to factor in here namely of the Indicators that we see in the run-up to the labor report So the ADP employment report specifically Which came out early in the week and of course that came in at 301 Negative 301 and as you can see here out of those last 12 readings that was a distinct break from the trend now as You've probably heard a lot of economists analysts have been talking about and definitely is really important for interpretation of today's payroll figure is this and this is looking at the Current COVID case rate pattern nationwide in the US and as we know with non-farm payrolls it captures a survey reference period and that pretty much came in for today's report right at the peak of The virus the coronavirus obviously they were already experiencing a Delta wave Omicron on top and so Definitely the weakness in the employment report for the month of January can definitely be explained away By the fact that forward-looking we know where the direction of travel generally for inflation And we know the direction of travel for COVID cases now is a rapid deceleration you can see this drop-off that we've had in the second half of January the bulk of which is not captured in this Report we're going to hear of and so while ADP Understandably was weak and saw service sector jobs the most hard hit leisure hospitality all getting hit by the back of the idea of Short-term increase in restrictions given the flash increase that we had in COVID cases That's really in the rearview mirror now and the markets are forward-looking So quick thing before we go then into these numbers I'll switch back over to my chart so we can hear the reaction see it live But don't be spooked by a downside number Look out for the combination of that figure to where it lies on the on the spread of range of expectations In combination with the unemployment rate and perhaps even more importantly the wage data is going to be key to determining the actual ensuing price action after the initial spike all right, so We've got a minute just under a minute to go you'll be able to hear the squawk So I'm plugged into new squawk is my recommended squawk feed I'm going to put them on now and hear the data as it comes out They'll give the countdown and they'll call the numbers as they appear Okay, I've got the numbers visible as well so you can see it and hear it at the same time 467 but the expected of 150 for the headline the unemployment rate That's a 4% for the expensive 3 spot 9 the headline that's revised to a 5 10 But only to be put it's month over month. That's serious for 7 cent but it's been to 0 spot 5 Yeah, yeah, also for the 5 spot 7 cents but expended on the 5 spot 2% Then for the work we house it's 34 spot 5, but I suppose it's 34 spot 7 No force participation that arises at 262 spot 2% from 61.9 cents Okay, I'm going to turn the squawk down. I'm just going to go straight with it So as you can see here the head headline changing on farm payrolls at four six seven So that's above the top end of expectation But also the average hourly earnings the month a month at point seven point two high and expected the year-in-year 5.7 so Strong headline changing on farms plus strong wage data equals short term The Fed are going to have to accelerate their tightening dollar strength yield strength gold down equities down Is kind of the initial take here? So here's here's T notes. So this is yields popping higher in Combination the dollar has also strengthened albeit fairly moderate And that's what's explaining that a little bit of downside pressure in the euro Mirrored as well in cable so you can see yields here T notes busting through the s1 as they continue to be Kind of this dual-fold mechanism of job creation being a solid Irrespective of the Omicron situation and the case rates in the US. It's very bullish for the labor market In combination with wages, which is already feeding into a high inflationary situation So gold equally would not like this type of scenario this talk of then although the Fed have in insinuated seven rate hikes That's a possibility this makes it a one more step of reality by looking at this data on a superficial level that we've just seen It's a gold under some quite significant selling pressure here Just targeting now down towards the the pivot level, which is also a dollar off the psychological 1800 level as well there so gold T notes under pressure cable session lows equities likely not to like this either Nasdaq at session lows as we speak So we're pretty much coming down to the base of where we were trading in the futures market in the Nasdaq from where we were Before it got bailed out by the Amazon earnings after the closing bell So target now down on downside would be down at 14456 We're trading about 50 points above that at the moment in the Nasdaq Probably the Nasdaq tech stock is going to be as we always see the most sensitive to yield expectations and fluctuations in The timeline for the Fed, but yeah, similarly, it's not good for any of these US indices at the same token So keeping an eye on the S&P. We're just testing down at the low that we saw late European morning So just going to switch this over to the 60 minute chart If we see any breakdown of there the next area of More significant support perhaps down at this kind of area 4444 you can see was these previous highs on the 26th and then a low on the break high that we saw At the beginning of the week anything below there s2 and then looking at 4400 Which was areas of support that we had back on the afternoon of the 31st So yeah overall first look at this Wages back on the rise average hourly earnings at 5.7 percent year-in-year. That is the fastest gain since the summer of 2020 And then overall initial interpretation here is this is going to kind of fuel the flames of where the market has been heading and Likely to support the narrative of the Fed getting increasingly more hawkish yields reflecting that accelerating dollar bid weighing on the major dollar-based currency pairs and Equities are not going to like that neither is gold I'm just having a quick look on the headlines to see if there's anything else noteworthy Yeah, the average the US average earnings year-in-year previous figure of 4.7 was also revised up to 5% And Yeah, and just for the sake of Completing the asset classes if you like Bitcoin as well not liking that and that's been very typical Cryptocurrencies has been a bit of a bloodbath since really the beginning of the year and We generally seen quite a correlated pattern between some of the major Cryptocurrencies and that of US indices and they're really both although. There's other smaller Fundamental developments that are underpinning some of the movement the broader macro picture has also been weighing on the crypto space Which is the Fed tightening has typically resulted in downside pressure for Bitcoin and we are seeing that Bitcoin futures here just dropping from around 37 900 down to around 37 500 in pretty pretty rapid fashion So yeah equities the NASDAQ then as we were just looking at has briefly Tested you can see there a lot of short-term Speculative traders not looking to really get too aggressive had a lot of flash test of that load that we had last night And then we've seen a bit of a bounce back up bit of whipsaw price action of a 40-point range on that initial test Really, can we break through there? Well, I'd be looking to really Look at other asset classes would want to see a bit more of a uniform momentum push So a bit more deeper Continuation of the T note move gold finding a bit of a hiatus at the pivot level as we were just looking at a moment ago I'd really want to see that breakthrough to get a bit more pace And that to follow through dollar appreciation to feel more conviction on any breakout here on the NASDAQ But perhaps the NASDAQ is the one to watch that could then facilitate the breakout of those other products Because the NASDAQ is quite sensitive to these rate changes So yeah, the NASDAQ is coming back down to that level So keep an eye on that NASDAQ if that NASDAQ breaks and we do see if we breaks a quick run down to those previous Lows that were seen kind of midday on the 31st Then what you might see is a follow through Materialized in some of the other products. So gold here right on that pivot now session lows again What you'd want to see is a break in that NASDAQ with coinciding it with the S&P breaking down Through this area here from those previous highs and 26 that low there So uniform break is going to add a bit more momentum to the move And then you might start to see a bit more continuation in the direction for the likes of gold and tea notes Yeah, I hope otherwise. I know I haven't done a live session in a while. So I hope everyone is well been trying to put out some Different breaking pieces of news. So things like I did one on Facebook and the Bank of England and stuff like that So if you are new to the channel, don't forget to subscribe go back and check out some of those Also as well if it's of interest while I'm here That's begins to settle on that year's report Which was characterized by a lot of these in the headline month on payrolls a large revision into the prior strong earnest components and a jump in the labor force Participation rates numbers in treasuries hold on to the downsides does work on 27, but then it's said to be a lot of interest Realtors effective. We've got it on 1868 They're briefly pierced the high print is seen on 19th of January 1920. It's making you high 1930 Equities get the price action slightly more contained. There wasn't down to exceed the weight of the release Wasn't the FX base this in the dollar means a I drink the session 95 is 65 After all back the closest to the 95 50 mark now dolly in that's family though, but one 15 And is the agreement way on to the euro and sterling because that was that's a don't handle given that the Expected us jobs reports expectations Canadian report Cool, yeah, that was the squawk just wrapping things up and with that I'm actually gonna just just come off this feed now So yeah, just wanted to jump on just to catch some of the initial reaction So I wish everyone a good rest of the session At the moment things are holding up relative, but gold Perhaps the standout you can see their breakout now and gold through that pivot in 1800 Trading very quickly down three bucks there on that move. So now the gold through there Yeah, I'm not sure how Strong my conviction would be on the continuation of that because the Nasdaq's bounced quite firmly and T notes are off They're low. So this could be more of a quick quick run down Rather than a continuous push to the downside, but I guess we'll see All right, well, look, I'm actually coming off the feed. So yeah short and sweet But just wanted to keep it to the point of payroll. So I hope everyone is doing well And yeah, thanks for logging in from Mauritius coups boss Good stuff and I'll catch you guys next time