 Hello, this is Frayn Olson, crop economist and marketing specialist with NDSU Extension. This is the weekly soybean update for the week of February 18th through February 24th, 2019. This week we'll look at the first private estimates for 2019 plantings. Every year USDA conducts an outlook forum that provides their initial forecasts for the upcoming marketing year. For this year it'll be for the 2019-2020 marketing year. The outlook forum was conducted on February 21st and 22nd 2019 and it looks at not only forecasts for the crop sector but also for the livestock sector. On the crop sector side they prepare estimates or forecasts for planted acreage, average yields, total supply, total use and ending stocks for the major crops produced in the United States which includes corn, soybeans and wheat. Just before the outlook forum was conducted there's a survey that's conducted for private analysts to say what is your best forecast for the 2019-2020 marketing year. And so we're going to review some of the information from the private forecasting firms. Now in this survey they're asked three basic questions. What is your forecast for planted acreage, your forecast for total production and your estimate for ending stocks? This table summarizes the private forecast for 2019 planted acreage. The row on the top is the average trade estimate for all of the 15 to 20 private analysts that are surveyed. The next row is the estimate that was the highest within the survey. The next row is the estimate that was the lowest reported within the survey. Below that highlighted or bolded is the USDA's final estimate for 2018 last year's numbers. And then I calculated a change on the very bottom. So if we look at wheat the average trade estimate for wheat plantings in the US is 47.2 million acres. We compare that to 2018 plantings of 47.8 million acres. We get about a 600,000 acre reduction. Now earlier on we just recently received the winter wheat seedings report. Now the winter wheat seedings report which is an actual survey of farmers on their planted acreage of winter wheat suggested that there was a 1.2 million acre reduction in winter wheat seedings. So based on that this kind of an applies that the private forecasters are expecting about a 600,000 acre increase in both spring wheat and white wheat plantings in the United States. If we look at the next column over for corn the average trade estimate for corn plantings is 91.7 million acres. We compare that to the USDA 2018 final value of 89.1 million acres and that suggests an increase of about 2.6 million acres. Then on the far right hand column is soybeans. The average trade estimate for soybean plantings in 2019 is 86.1 million acres. This compares to the USDA 2018 number of 89.2 million acres or about a 3.1 million acre reduction. Now let's turn our attention to the private forecast for 2019 total production. Now total production combines not only planted acreage but an adjustment for harvested acreage which is usually slightly lower. And then we have to incorporate a forecast for the yield. Now most private analysts as well as the USDA uses a trend line yield and a trend line yield is simply the average yield for a particular time period that's been adjusted for technology or slightly increased because of technology advancements. Now private forecasters may use slightly different trend line yields or time periods versus USDA so there might be some subtle differences there as well. Now let's compare that top row which is the average trade estimates to the USDA 2018 values for total production. When we look at all wheat, all wheat production based on the trade estimates are forecast to increase about 0.3% so very small increase from 1.884 billion bushels to 1.89 billion bushels. For corn total corn production is forecast to increase about 3% from 14.42 billion bushels last year to almost 14.9 billion bushels in 2019. For soybeans again because of the lower acreage as well as the trend line adjustments remember in 2018 we had very strong yields across the US. Total production is forecast to decrease about 5.5% from 4.5 billion bushels to about 4.3 billion bushels. And finally we'll look at the private forecast for 2019-2020 ending stocks. Now the ending stocks estimate will include not only the forecast for total production but also a forecast for some kind of estimate for total use. Now the total use numbers were not captured in the survey but they did ask what the ending stocks estimates were so again you take total production minus total use you get ending stocks which is the amount of grain that would be left in storage or in the bin just before harvest of the next year. Again we're going to compare the top row which is the average trade estimate for 2019-20 versus last year's number or the current estimate that USDA has for 2018-19. When we look at all wheat ending stocks ending stocks for wheat are forecast to decrease based on the private estimates about 6% from just over 1 billion bushels to about 946 million. And corn very, very small change is nearly equal to the 2018 numbers 1.735 billion bushels versus 1.743 as the average trade estimate. On soybeans ending stocks are forecast to decrease very slightly about 1.6% from 91 million bushels down to 895 million bushels. I suspect without seeing all of the numbers one of the reasons we're seeing a much smaller decrease in ending stocks is that not only are we going to have a reduction in total production but the average trade estimate is that we're also going to have a slight reduction in total use as well. My suspicion is the differences come in the forecast for exports. If we look at the range, let's look at the highest trade estimate versus the lowest trade estimate for soybeans, you notice that that's quite a significant range which to me implies that private analysts have very differing views about what the rebound and export pace will be if we get some kind of trade agreement. So let's briefly recap. The timing and structure of a trade agreement with China will have a significant impact on both old crop 2018 as well as new crop 2019 soybean prices. Right now farm managers are trying to finalize their 2019 planting intentions and they're looking to the futures market for some guidance on which crops have the most profit potential. So the irony is that the futures market traders as well as the analysts are trying to anticipate or forecast what our farmers are going to plant in 2019 as well as trying to forecast or anticipate any kind of potential changes to domestic or export demand. Now the first large scale survey based estimate of 2019 planted acreage will be released by USDA with their perspective plantings report on March 29th, 2019 at 11 o'clock a.m. central time. So this report is going to be very significant to the markets. It usually provides some additional information on what farmers our intentions are knowing that they will adjust some of their planted acreage based off the new information. So again we'll have to keep in mind that these reports will be coming and watch for those very closely. This concludes this week's recording. Please feel free to contact me if you have any questions and thank you for listening.