 Torrey Pines is on the menu for this week for the Farmers Insurance Open a Couple of courses we know a lot about on the menu for this week in an event We know a lot about in a field that is loaded with a lot of good golfers I'm gonna break things down from a PGA DFS perspective Let you know which of said good golfers will be targeting for this week and get you set for it Should be a fun week of DFS welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number fire that's right here on the fan dual podcast network in number fire calm My name is Jim Saunders. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as always by Brandon Gadoula he is the managing editor of number fire calm and Brandon This event starts on Wednesday, which means not only do we have distractions for two days of work We get three days of distractions Ear muffs to our boss JJ Zacharyson just don't listen to this part But we get to like distract ourselves with golf for 60% of our work week this work weird week week week With the Farmers Insurance Open so I'm in a good mood. How are you doing today? Yeah, I'm good. We got some phenomenal NFL games This past weekend kind of made up for the fact that I didn't really watch much of the American Express, which I'm all right with I Mean it's just it's not it's not my favorite event of the year The Farmers is not my favorite, but it's a lot better and we get like you said tons of good golfers in this field this week and We have John Robb and I think that his storyline alone like John Rom versus the field is A really fun one for me because for as good as Rom is he hasn't won nearly as much as he should have and like everything sets up for a win this week but He is not peak Tiger Woods. He is not two to one against the field to win here So you know to see what Rom does at a course where he's found success That's kind of a top storyline for me Yeah And he's the betting favor right here at plus and 50 over at fangirls sports book to win this event and for Good reason not just the current forum, but also as you mentioned good course history. We're gonna break down that break down Golfers who are golfing well right now and let you know our favorite golfers in each salary tier throughout the podcast for today But you first you mentioned NFL We do have an NFL podcast of the conference championships coming up on Thursday 10 a.m Live on the fan to a YouTube page and also up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed right after that wherever you get Your podcast so if you're watching YouTube hit that like button hit it Don't smash it hit it hit the like button over on YouTube hit subscribe as well and hit the Notification button the notifications as we go live Subscribe to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast and while you're there if you like what you hear Leave us a rating and review as well Also, of course NBA NHL BFS podcasts every week to via Tom Beckio USC via Austin Swain NASCAR Just around the corner should be a whole lot of fun It's a lot of good reasons to make sure you're subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed also the 2021 NFL season winding down at the conference championships this weekend this Sunday the Rams played at 49ers and the chiefs played at Bangles and Fandall is giving you a chance to get in on the action all you got to do It's got a fandall.com and create your own daily fantasy lineup for the NFL Sunday million contest play for a chance to win A part of the 1.5 million dollar prize pool There are a ton of cash prizes to be had so head over to fandall.com Today and create your daily fantasy line-ups eligibility restrictions apply go to fandall.com or download the fandall app for more details Let's dig in here to the farmers insurance open again The big thing if you are a procrastinator like me is that contests lock on Wednesday because they're trying to avoid said conference championships So lock is Wednesday morning if you're listening after Wednesday morning, we'll see you next week Anyway, Wednesday morning is when we have lock for this event for the farmers insurance open Yes, me pushing listeners away pushing down that average consumption time on Apple all by myself We should have buried that we should have buried the lead at the very end just said oh by the way, you know This if I cared about the stats Brandon I Might but I care about our listeners are you care about you just care about getting the winds you care about hitting cups Not about your strokes gained hitting cups. Yeah, like Cooper. I don't want to hit Cooper Cooper's We can get to me recently. We're good terms now. No, no, it's this the golf pod I'm the one calling a pooper like you gotta use full Cooper now We've got to use golf terms hitting cups. I don't want to hit him. I don't want to hit him Which nice seems like a nice guy. There was a layered joke too that you just ruined I don't want to get in a stroke. It's strokes game is just How I'm a pacifist. Sorry. Sorry, just let's move on Okay, they're gonna play in the farmers insurance open at two courses It is Torrey Pines South and Torrey Pines North South course is the primary course. It is seven thousand seven hundred and sixty five Yards Nepal 72 the North course is 7258 yards in a par 72 they get one round on the North course one round on the South course to start and after the Cut the final two rounds will be on the South course There are 156 golfers in the field the top 65 plus ties make the cut so one last round in the last week and Back to top 65 plus ties making the cut so If you had trouble with the cut last week This guy gonna be tough once again this week if you're looking for more course history They did host the US Open at Torrey Pines them South course last year Obviously different kind of layouts and tweaks there for a major versus a regular contest, but Either way some more stuff to consider there for course history So Brandon we know what to expect at Torrey Pines because we've had a lot of history here between the US opens and Via the farmers insurance what stands out to you in terms of what stats we should emphasize for this week Yeah, so we know length The South course running over 7700 yards makes it extremely long one of the longest regular tour rotation courses that we get Each year so driving distance is going to be a factor for me Which is not that surprising This week, but there's a little bit more to this course that that I think is jumping out to me usually in this in the swing season and Then out in Hawaii, you know, we get some low-low scores the scores aren't quite so low to win the farmers in fact just one one score since 1999 when Tiger with one at 22 under only one score, which was Justin Rose 21 under in 2019 Just one of the past 22 winners then We're 20 under or better here. Usually you're looking more in the 15 under range, which Doesn't make it like a US open, which I think we're on one at like Five six under or something like that, but it's still a more difficult a little bit more demanding than what we've had recently So that's intriguing to me Part of that is that the South course has average green sizes that are 5,000 square feet about a thousand square feet Smaller on average than your average tour green So I think that's relevant but overall With scores that are closer to 10 under or close ish to 10 under and not necessarily 2025 under kind of looking for all around play, especially in a field like this You want some driving this week for me. It's driving distance. You want iron play Wedge play around the green play actually does matter here as well. I'm in putting too. So like I know it's a Seems kind of simple to say you want guys to do everything but against this field go back and look at the winners here You know, you need that so my key stats for this week are going to be stroking approach driving distance stroking around the green Stroke scheme putting on Poa primarily Because the South course is Poa North course is bent grass But those two have a lot of overlap anyway, and then birdie or better. It's still because you want birdies That's how you're gonna get fandal points, but it's not as important as it has been in recent weeks So the difficulty has two implications for me The first one is I agree with you where around the green matters a bit more this week not in terms of like gaining strokes But in terms of not imploding because if it's a tougher course, I want guys who are going to Not torpedo effectively and that's just one less path to being terrible is You know not blowing around the greens other thing to me is it's a very different situation than last week where Because it was a bit easier it devalued John Romabit because his ability to separate from the pack was not as great Whereas this week that's not he had that known Yeah, like he was pleased, you know, but like This week is a lot different. So I think a it does mean we need more We just need better quality golfers all across the board and be it makes it It makes the top-end guys who can separate more valuable than they may have been last week with this being a bit more difficult So I'm the same page as you are got distance approach around the green and then putting as well as being Key stats for this week And I think that if you blend those together, you're gonna wind up going down the right path And like you said it may seem obvious, but I do think it's kind of necessary given the way this field stacks up Yeah, I should have done a much better job last week with Rom Just knowing the volatility of a birdie fest But also I kind of let that get cancelled out by the fact that every golfer is guaranteed 54 holes and in theory That should just help the best separate but you know Realistically the birdie makers we talk about this all the time when courses are easy These guys can all go low on like resort courses and easy courses What really separates John Rom from everyone else or most of the you know non superstars is Whenever he can go six under it at a Tory pine set up for the US open and everyone else is over par that kind of stuff So, you know, we don't quite have that but we have a little bit more of that than we had in recent weeks So that is why I'm gonna have a hard time finding Straight-up value golfers who I feel great about because it's not gonna be your birdie fest You're gonna get your I can almost guarantee you're not you're not gonna get a sub $9,000 winner this week. Yeah Other thing too is the reason I'm looking at around the green stuff is because you can have fewer flaws in order to compete this week Then you may have had otherwise you just Someone's gonna be almost perfect. You got to keep up with that and I think that's a tough thing for this week Okay, let's talk about John Rom here in the course history section looking at guys We're dead well at Tory Pines in the past and he's kind of like the headline or there But also just for the the event in general So let's talk about John Rom specifically at Tory Pines and then broaden things out and discuss where we are at with him for this week Yeah, so Rom won the US Open at Tory Pines on the South course Setup last year also won the farmers on the two-course setup in 2017 Since that 2017 win finished 29th with some poor putting if memory serves 5th second and 7th so even without the wins even without the US Open win You'd say okay John Rom plays well at Tory Pines What do we do there and then you layer in the fact that John Rom is John Rom and playing like John Rom and has returned from the 2021 layoff to be John Rom still with a 14th last week second before that it's it's we haven't I mean realistically since we've had this this PGA podcast we've had some like Blips of Unfatable golfers like DJ at his peak Justin Thomas for a little bit But John Rom has just been established. Just like you're not getting a whole lot of leverage by just Avoiding him because he's so consistently good and part of why so consistently good is because he doesn't do any one thing Better than anybody else But what he does better than everyone else is does everything like he is his worst rank across my four stroke skinned Categories over the past year which adjusts for recency and field strength his lowest percentile rank is a 90th percentile And that's around the green which is the least important, but he's 90th percentile or better in everything. I Think that you again once again lock in John Rom for cash games you can You don't have to play him in every tournament lineup But I also don't think you're gaining as much leverage by fading John Rom as you might for more volatile golfers like it And then Justin Thomas comes to mind because Justin Thomas is not a good putter So he can just be great teeter-green, but you know finished 20th because the putting is not there. So for me Rom Just makes sense from every angle and I'm another hard time getting away from him this week yeah, and I think the salary gap is not that large either because Rom's a 12 to GT's a 12,000 Zanders at 11 9 So I agree with you where he just locked me in for cash games go from there for tournaments It is tough because I Have gotten a similar vibe to you where the value stinks and and that isn't saying it's It's tough I would say like there are very good golfers down there But it's like everyone I can't really talk myself into a lot of guys being like, okay You can hang for a top 10 in this field down there. So to me I'm kind of interested at least in a more balanced approach kind of like taking a majors-esque approach where I Dip down for my first golfer and kind of get a couple guys in that upper range before it drops off That's the one pitch I have against Rom so I feel like I still want to be a little bit overweight but like From a roster construction perspective, I really do think balance being a bit more balanced week is enticing to me Yeah Now this is just semantics, but there's a key distinction in what you're saying It's we're not fading John Rom because he's gonna be too popular. There's a big path to busting. It's literally It's harder to build a lineup I love with John Rom as opposed to bumping down and maybe playing Bryson DeChambeau as your first stud something like that Yeah, it's a completely different conversation than like If Justin Thomas was was 12-2 this week You know, I have a lot more concerns about it Justin Thomas or literally any other golfer who's not wrong who has no holes in this game So again, like we're on the same page just phrasing it a little bit differently and I think that the real case again like in tournaments that you don't play him is That that balance that we're gonna go back to probably throughout the show because the value is just the value is not dreadful But there's a lot of there's too much uncertainty to feel good about We're in a field this deep I also do think that the second tier if we're gonna be like liberal and make the second tier be really big second tier is pretty good Like 11-5 through 10-5 that range is I think it's pretty nice So I think that also changes the equation a bit You can still get there with wrong like you can go wrong and will Zalatoris and feel pretty good Zalatoris is 10-6 like you're still not gonna have a terrible Unbalanced line up there, but you know, I think it's something to consider for sure One of the guys who could fit that is Patrick Reed because he is 10-3. So let's talk about him here He is not a distance guy, but he has done well at this course in the past despite that or this event He won the farmers last year Reed did he gained a 5.8 strokes tea to green and a 4.5 in his three rounds in the South course what? Yeah, he won it. There's a little bit of an asterisk, but he won it. Yeah counts Counts wins win At the US Open when they came back Reed finished 19th there that was despite losing at 1.2 strokes off the tee Reed also has a sixth place finish back in 2020 13th and 2019 In his recent history at Torrey Pines He's played two events since the new year and he seems to be over that illness He had back from the fall where his play really fell off He's been roughly averaged in those two events though aided by plus marks putting so, you know, keep that in mind So let's talk about Reed. Have you seen enough from him recently to buy back in here at 10-3 at a course where he's done well previously So the one thing in Reed's favor is that he's of course done well here and that according to data golf They have this new page. So I always have new pages, but it shows like Just core stats and it highlights The most difficult the easiest courses things like that and certain things and Torrey Pines South Is one of the hardest courses to gain strokes putting on from inside five and inside 15 feet So it makes sense that you know great putters such as rom Who's a phenomenal potter Reed could have an edge at a setup like this? So I'm not Look, I'll just say this of everyone with the salary of 10,000 or higher Reed is the worst value in my model But like I also don't really want to go Straight up against him because I know that Reed is not really subject to Being confined to the stats. He's got his courses after what happened last year with the embedded ball fiasco. I'm sure team Reed is ready to go and You know make a statement here. I don't know if that's gonna work out. I'm gonna get the Twitter counts firing again Oh, yeah I'm more likely not to play Reed I think I might and it's maybe I'm too high on Taylor Gooch and to I was gonna say good Specifically as a reason like I was thinking about like okay. Yeah. Yeah, that's like that range Like I can get I can get the putt not not Patrick Reed putting but I can get very good putting very good around the green Play very good approach without the downsides the distance without the downsides of like, you know Still not being back to full full form like I can get that with Gooch and just be happy So and like root for someone I want her for it's like, you know, there are a couple factors where can you do just favor I think Yeah, I mean, I'm not sold on Reed to the point where I think I have to play him So I'm gonna say I know for me But again once again, I understand the case and you know sometimes with with 150 golfers Like I'm not gonna have a strong take on on everyone to say no fade this guy Reed is more for me. Just I'd rather go elsewhere Give me the gooch. Let's move on to your second course history guy that is Brent Snedeker Snedeker is Someone where if you look dig back far enough, you're gonna see a lot of really good results But also the more recent stuff not too bad. So what do you see here with Snedeker checking an 8-9 for this week? Yeah, so you gotta get your expectations in check with a golfer at 8,900 While you always want top 10 upside from every golfer, you know, are you gonna be kicking yourself with a made cut? Probably not it's not gonna help you But you also kind of you know, you need the made cut and go from there But Snedeker is 8,900 and based on just this past five results at Torrey I think you could justify talking about Snedeker in this section He was 30 second last year and before that third 60 second 45th and 9th So five straight made cuts for a golfer below 9,000 with two top tens But if you go back another year, he won before that ninth missed cut second first ninth and second since 2010 So again, that's awesome. But the better days for Snedeker are behind him He's still been making cuts at Torrey. He's been vying for some solid finishes in recent years even with some declining data Then again, it is just one top 30 in his past four years. So I don't want to oversell this so Snedeker is probably a perfect example of you know, maybe people are sticking around from the NFL show listening to PGA They're like, okay, Snedeker does well at this course. Let me just play him at a value salary I don't know if there's enough current upside that he'll get back into the top 10 But he might get you a made cut. He's probably gonna make the cut What he does from there, I don't know also 89 is not enough to say like he's a free space He gets me John Rom for sure, right? So I think Snedeker has probably overall the most Interesting intriguing case to be made for from a past history standpoint. I'm probably not there But what about you? Yeah, I just think that right now in his current state You're not you're kind of just giving yourself one less swipe at a top 10 And again, I said that like before guys in this range probably are gonna get you a top 10 anyway But like I think there are guys whose you have you'd have this I guess But like there are guys whose odds of a top 10 are probably a lot higher in this range than Snedickers And I'd rather take swipes at them and give myself the template wrong rather than like just taking a 53rd place finish of the made cut. I think that's you know, it's Like the quote-unquote floor answer, but I've as I've grown older I've cared less and less and less about floor in DFS especially in golf because four doesn't exist. Yeah, so that's kind of just you know Previously maybe I would have but like I don't think current Jim can justify that Yes, and my wind simulation model has Snedeker among all golfers in this field 9000 or lower His top 10 either 21st It's not great Among the value range. It's 5% basically Charlie Hoffman, Jonathan Vegas Taylor Moore You're speaking my language now. We'll talk some vagus later. Consider a little charlie Uh, couldn't quite get there. We not considered it for sure So we'll talk about those guys later on if you jump just above that range though You can fly by the seat of your pants with luke list. Let's talk about luke list here You'd liked him last week. We had a head-to-head bet. I'm pretty sure I lost He golfed well finished 20 seconds Now we're going to a course where we favor distance and list has shockingly done well here in the past last year List finished 10th despite losing three strokes putting Classic classic luke list he gained 8.2 t-degree in there. That was in the farmers again across the three measured rounds He was also 12th back in 2018. He has made four straight cuts here Obviously it's a more limited sample, but poa is lists least bad putting surface and Everything else is humming right now that does include around the green play I think we just kind of assume luke list is a bad short game guy But he's actually the bad putter is around the green play is pretty good actually so You were on list last week. Are you back on board again this week? Yeah, not not as much of a priority, but definitely in the conversation So for my my pga helper on numberfire.com, which you can check out plug Look at this marketing genius I list him as an other to consider in the mid-range Four straight make cuts to top 12s past four You like that and as you mentioned the way that I phrased it was he's Decidedly less dreadful putting on poa than even bent grass so Yeah, you'll take it when you can with list I think he actually kind of is close to being a priority for me, which is kind of scary He's not far off. Yeah I'm very much more into him this week than I was last week as as evidenced by the fact that I Um Had a head-to-head bet against you with him. Yeah, so but you know I'm in So the thing is I think the mid-range is appealing But that's it depends on how you define the mid-range because like the upper nines have a few names I like the low tens um The low nines a little bit But if I just consider luke list to straight up value and I didn't make the cutoff as hard as 9 000 He would have been a priority at 9 000 below But within the context of like comparing him to some guys at like 99 Maybe gets bumped out a little bit, but you know list. Absolutely. Let's say I'm building lineups and I don't have you know 90 94 5 to get back up to some other names. I like I have no issues with list so, um Well, I have some issues still that's the putting but you know, no issues. No issues No issues. No concerns. All all clear luke list No issues that you heard of here first with jim never never I've never told to luke luke list my life So let's move on to the current forum section and pray for luke's putter Let's go down there and talk about golfers who are in some interesting form right now starting on mark leishman He is at 10 5 and we do have some data on leishman in 2022 What have you seen there and what do you see to leishman more broadly over the past couple of months? Yeah, leishman's been trending back up over like the past year. I've yet to buy in totally ever and when I do It seems like it doesn't work out which is not how you should play any fantasy sport But I've really been struggling with leishman. So I find him interesting to talk about He's been 10th the tournament of champions 36 that the sony open So he has two events under his belt in 2022 And the good form for leishman again, just this isn't a two week thing He had a fourth third 38th and 19th in the swing season to end 2021 the irons were there and all of those he gained Strokes and all of those according to data golf adjusted Numbers there and there's always potential for big putting weeks from him He is best on bermuda and we've had a lot of bermuda courses in the swing season And and to start 2022 We're now off of bermuda. So I at least want to make that known. However For leishman, it's not just that he's been putting really well The ball striking has been good. So I don't want to get I don't want to just kind of jump ship straight away for leishman He is in a loaded tier In the in the 10,000 range and I think I'm kind of getting the vibe that You and I both like multiple golfers in like the 10,000 range leishman's part of that whereas before I don't know if you would have made it for me. Maybe it's silly to get on him at 10 5 now that he's off bermuda, but um I think I'm higher on leishman than I have been in quite some time I don't know if you want to talk about zalatours next and then we can talk about this range in general So go ahead go ahead. Yeah Zalatours is $100 more than leishman at 10 6 whereas leishman is a 10 5 Zalatours finished 7th at the farmers insurance last year coming off a sixth place finish recently So you know that plus some giddy up off the team makes me pretty interesting here to discuss last week zalatours gained 5.7 strokes t to green Across his two measured rounds. He gained 3.7 of those on approach And it's helped push him up to sixth in the field and approached the past 50 rounds according to fantasy national last year at the farmers zalatours finished well thanks to Three strokes gain of the greens. Uh, it is three rounds at the south course Could be kind of fluky because putting is generally not a strength of his but you know in a 19 round sample on poa He's been okay. Um, I don't want to say he's good because it's way too Like he's he hasn't struggled uh yet on poa yet. The concern is that zalatours, uh could catch some popularity this week based on twitter buzz Based on his win odds shortening at other sites before they opened over at fan duel so What is read on zalatours this week? Where's the great out relative to a good tier and your overall thoughts on this 10,000 range for this week Okay, so zalatours didn't quite make the top of the list for me. Um in this range I have a good number of names highlighted uh with a 10 to start their salary that would include Taylor good to 10 2 jordan speed 10 7 scottie cheffler 10 9 I wanted to ask you about speed specifically I'm gonna do that now since you mentioned him the form obviously is kind of wonky Yes, but we also saw him within the past couple of months be like elite elite elite And if you'd give me speed that this kind of course in august, let's say for 10 7 I would have like lost my poop so like I find him to be the biggest question mark in this range Both in the positive and the negative sense like question marks should be good if it means there's upside there and I think there is with him so What led you to ranking him high on your list? So even though driving distance is a key stat for me And I think I wanted to spell a myth about spieth, which I kind of say probably twice a year Jordan spieth is not a short driver. He is not long He is above average That's fine. That doesn't make him short He's not going to win a long drive contest, but You know, so distance itself matters this week spieth has some of that anyway Stroke skiing off the tee actually weirdly doesn't matter as much which is kind of confusing But if you remove stroke skiing off the tee from everyone and you look at approach around the green and putting That that I call fairway through green Spieth is in the 99th percentile in that Um, I'm assuming john rom's the only one above him, but I don't have it filtered to that but still Spieth is awesome if you don't really put a ton of weight into Stroke skiing off the tee and even with the some, you know the accuracy issues again 62nd percentile in this field over the past year with recency adjustments for him off the tee So again, not bad. Just not phenomenal at it Uh, whenever you have uh, short game matters, you know Uh chipping putting that bumps beats up for me. So I like spieth. I think people kind of will have some spieth fatigue um, and at 34 to 1 That's a number that I I bet Okay, I like it. Uh, okay. I find that interesting. Um, I think that he So you said gouch was one right? No considering out of out of those guys. Um Um Well, gouch is probably my first considering salary with salary. Yes. Okay next is cheffler Okay, spieth. Okay. I go gouch one spieth two Oh, you do you have spieth too? Yeah, because like Well from a tournament perspective, I don't think I'm gonna use I would not use spieth in the cash game Sure, I don't think he fits that format right now, but like for a tournament. I would be very intrigued Uh, I would go gouch spieth I'd probably go xalachorus third though above Well scottie, would you take a xalachorus cheffler bet? I would Um, man, so I bet cheffler and jim tends to beat me in the head to head. So that's not a good sign So you spieth cheffler or any others do we know of? Um, let me get this bet down before I forget it Okay big xal Um, so out of this range, I mean the the 10 000 range is literally 10 golfers So I don't want to get too deep here. But yeah, yeah, I think I would draw. I would think I would make the distinction at those three Okay, cool I think I would too Which means I really want to watch brooks like closely like and really overreact to what I see Um, he's got some equipment changes. He seems like he's healthy. He seems like he's focused Um, it could be one of those spots where it's like, oh, hey, you know rom didn't win Uh brooks or like maybe cheffler breaks through or spieth gets it done or something like that Um, or or bryce and but it's like, hey, you gotta play you can play scottie cheffler Jordan spieth brooks kepka and patrick reed Yeah, or like rom and bryce in or something like that. Yeah, like This could be a week where I regret not just peppering this range anyway Yeah, I think that's fair and something I've kept in mind too. Okay, let's move down to the value range here of guys in the Form section one of them is joseph bramlitz and bramlitz if you compare odds to salary Really stands out as being undervalued based on his fan dual salary Jackson at just $900. So what do you seem with him recently? Is it enough to justify the buzz he has seemingly been getting? so again, this is this won't be Super newsworthy for like long-time listeners, but again, you know It's a good time to to have some golf action, especially because it'll be over by the time that yeah, you got to roll over those Those gave the babe davis winnings into something, you know, why not pgadfs? Okay, so you look at joseph bramlitz at 79. He's coming off a 20th and a 33rd, which is Those are good results for such a low salary And he's gained 5.8 strokes t degree at the sony and 4.3 and two measured rounds at the american express At the stadium course his irons have been awesome And data golf has his adjusted approach play at plus 1.24 per round and a plus 1.56 and I think they actually do imputations to like Figure out what he would have gained it courses with no shot link, which is pretty cool But prior to those results bramlitz had missed five straight cuts and hadn't been particularly close he's 33 years old and usually We do not see big-time reversals for older golfers. It's much more common to see reliable changes in younger golfers However, it is after a layoff. Maybe he worked on some things got things dialed in To be transparent. I will not be chasing joseph bramlitz. This is more of a Here's kind of what you should look for whenever you see someone who's been bad Has had two good results. Is the two-degree in play there? It is Is he is he a spring chicken? Not quite But there was a layoff. So maybe he had time to work on some things. So again, I'm not going to chase bramlitz. This is more of like He's the one who stands out like you said from an odds perspective relative to salary. I'm not there myself What about you? Yeah, I think that like there are components that are interesting like he can bomb it He's very long off the tee like you said the irons are pretty good It's like there are components there if he were to shore up the short game, then that's kind of interesting um, especially for seven nine So i'm not like totally off. I would say um, i'm not like And like I guess the other thing too is I am not assuming he is popular because I don't think anyone below eight thousand will ever be popular So I I would say i'm receptive to it. Am I making sure I get him in my player pool? No but like let's say I get really enthused about the 10 000 range, but I also want rom I would give thought to using bramlitz as a skeleton skeleton key. I don't know if I use that right skeleton key As a uh, macguffin to making it there. I don't know That's not a lot of macguffin whatever whatever. I don't know Let it be um, oh boy I might I can't talk myself into this. Also, he said he's not a spring chicken and we're only two years younger than him So like don't make me feel bad. Oh, well, come on. Well, it's nothing. I'm just saying Statistically, that's whenever you you see more short term turnarounds in younger golfers, but I know you're just making me feel bad on Tuesday, uh, but if you go if you go hypothetically if you go rom bramlitz and Luke list You have 10 more than 10 to left per golfer, which means you could hypothetically get three guys in the 10 000 range with john rom or you can get Two and go like i'm avaric magnolia. I don't know if you care about him this week But I think he's kind of interesting like you can get in you can get in a pretty fun lineup with that So i'm not opposed. I am Not opposed is what i'll say i'll keep it at that So bramlitz tied for 78th in the field in salary I have him 41st in my form and stats model that does put him pretty close to 65 So that's not like although it's undervalued. It's still there's still risk risk risk there, you know Yeah I I do have adam shank It's 77 on the list a little bit, too Um, he's been missing a bunch of cuts, but it's not it's not that bad But I might swap that out to bramlet as a as a true value Maybe I did talk myself into some sprinkles because the game's there um And data golf has him expected for to play basically 1.8 strokes per round better than normal at this course Interesting because of the distance. Yeah, okay Or I should say specifically at the south course not Joseph bomblet. Can we call him that? We could oh boy. All right. Here we go Talking to ourselves and do a guy in the 7000 range. What could go wrong? I'll go wrong. Yeah, yeah Let's talk here about tom hoagie up at eight nine Uh, he started us in spike weeks over the past couple months and That's nothing that you always see in the value range. So we can talk about that most recently hoagie was second at the american express Gained 7.3 strokes cheated green across his two measured rounds 4.7 of those were around the green you mentioned last week that you can gain more strokes around the green Um in that event than most events. So that was kind of fluky and maybe not super sustainable But uh, that was hoagie's second top five in his past three events in his third Since the start of the fedex cut playoffs across that same span just two missed cuts With that said hoagie's not very long out the tee Kind of just middling outside of his really solid approach play So where does tom hoagie great out for you at eight nine hundred dollars? He is perhaps my favorite playable low nine thousand I Jim's taken aback, but no i'm not i was just i was trying to be dramatic not actually the reason The reason for that is because i don't really like anyone below So it's a it's like a double sided coin or whatever. Um, aren't all coins double sided? Yeah, but like with the It's the same thing on both. I don't know. We're not very good with the The analogies today. Um, we're trying though It's a tuesday That's that's my always my excuse for also it's it's like I know you have mba, but it's my off season like I'm living life You don't get an off season. I do um Yeah, so I can talk more about hoagie later on Okay, but I do think that he With a good iron play with sort of the baseline potting on both surfaces this week He does stand out to me the win odds are A little like shorter than I would like to see from a dfs standpoint just because I think that That could bump people to him But then again with all of the superstars here I'm not afraid that tom hoagie is going to be like 20 rostered It's just a little more than I like and even two percentage points can make a big difference on how a value golfer performs So like you said, maybe more discussion of tom hoagie later on so for now Let's move on to the bookmaker odds for this event john rom again The clear favorite. He is plus 750 a fangirl sportsbook and you get to jesson thomas in second at 13 to 1 zander schoffley at 17 to 1 homecoming narrative for zander brandon. You've not discussed him yet. I'm disappointed bryce and dshambo is 19 to 1 The three golfers at 21 to 1 are daniel burger dustin johnson hideki matzuyama Sam burns and tell me tell me tony fiena are both 24 to 1 then dips to scottie schaeffler and willis aleutaurus at 29 to 1 some jm round for the top group He is 32 to 1 so talk about rom earlier What is your view of the second tier specifically like the 11,000 range? Are they worth jamming in or Would you rather jump down after you get romped to that really good 10,000 range? What about your non-rom lives? What are you doing there? A lot of questions for a Tuesday. There are three in a row And I want you to answer all three consecutively go Okay, what's my view of the second tier and that does kind of tie into the second question, but you know, so I mean it's look I would like to roster any of these guys um well, maybe not dustin johnson, but outside of that and it's just because he hasn't played in a long time and when he has been playing he's been putting his way to like top 10s, which I really want to see for dj. Um I would say brycen is the one exception who I would Maybe be okay with if I build a lineup. I really love and I don't have 12 to to get to rom and I have 12,000 I think over jt zander and head decky. I'd play brycen Although I should probably just Start jamming in head decky because he's playing really loose and and really well But I think brycen is the standout. So that's kind of my view the second tier It's phenomenal if you can get there Realistically, I don't know if I can get there because the the tier below that is much more enticing and gives me an extra Extra golfer in that range So I don't think they're really worth jamming in as a result aside from maybe brycen um And then in my non rom lineups again, I think anchor with brycen is my most likely scenario Unless I really come around on a full-on balance and start my lineups with scottie chevler I Am okay with full-on balance except maybe not to the same extent where I think The top the bottom of the 11,000 range sam burns tony fina. I think both those guys are very interesting And I'd be okay in a non rom non rom lineups skipping down to them. You know, I could go burns fina or I could go burns Uh, I thought you hated tony fina. I hated him last week because I wasn't I didn't care about distance There's a difference different courses bro. Um, I should probably start factoring in courses, huh? Yeah, you should think about that consider course. Um, I think to me that's kind of interesting. So like if I go burns and then I go let's go with gooch and then let's go with speed that leaves me at 90 300 left Is a little bit value-ish so like it's still not super balanced But like I'm not opposed to that kind of build and going that direction Getting three guys in that range or just going, you know burns fina and then dropping down I'm also okay with that. So I actually think that to me the low at that low 11,000 range Considering salary is more attractive than the high to mid 11,000 range Yeah, um now I'll be Like I don't dislike them the upper nines, but I do think there's a drop-off after Taylor gooch To everyone else. Yeah So I got a factor that in not get too married to the guys in upper nines, but I think In our head-to-head against each other I will be playing John Rom Wow bold Um, make it a stand. I think that maybe in my non-rom lineups I might even skip over Bryson Yeah And you can go with cheffler Yeah And just take you like cheffler more than burns straight up because I would do a head-to-head there We can get two scotties in here. Um So I kind of do I don't know if it's to the point Okay That I would want to bet that just because my thing with burns is like he's so good on bermuda I don't know what he's going to be doing on these other surfaces because he's really come onto my radar He's a great putter on a lot of bermuda courses cheffler's Weakness is still putting so I probably wouldn't want to get quite there myself Alrighty you can miss out. It's fine. Um, which golfers odds have shifted most since things open f-handle Both of our guys, uh, tony fina for you went from 29 to 24 Scotty cheffler 34 to 29 mark leishman 37 to 34 Matthew wolf He's kind of my guy this week 70 to 55 launch of griffin 75 to 55 Luke list our guy we share Luke list love Our collective son 90 to 75 Cameron trangalli also our boy. Good god 100 to 90 Okay, and that's it from you know Shorter than 190 currently. I hadn't looked a ton into trangalli yet this week. He's 96 Um, that was kind of the main reason why I didn't get there He rates out well for me, but I have some trangalli fatigue. Yeah That's really what comes down to we'll be back though. Don't you worry Cameron? Which lower salary golfers have I'd send out to you? um launch of griffin And match up t5 Are top five not a t5 top five. They're different things um 55 to 1 At 94 95 respectively luke list. How are we not gotten discussion on the max homo? California swing yet. That's usually a topic this time of year. Yeah, I think um the salaries too high No, I think i'm probably gonna jump jump in on homo. Maybe at the expense of Who I currently have listed? Which is erin wise, but So, uh, are you saying it's a homo coming narrative? Oh You can quit it's okay. I wouldn't I wouldn't I wouldn't fault you. It's fine. Uh, keep going. Sorry, I interrupt to do This isn't you know Riv for for homo, but list mckenzie huge riva riva era It's in california The whole state that's a big state That's big. I don't care. I consider like if if there were like an event in minnesota and I were playing there I considered a homecoming event like it could be it could be in the midgie. I'm from southern minnesota It could be in the midgie and I wouldn't care it could be in morehead could be in Name other city that's not close to to rochester that I would you know, we could do that So I was born in virginia. I live in pennsylvania So maybe the fact that i'm not good at golf is because i'm not playing in virginia and i'm playing in pennsylvania Similar thing with martin truex jr. He's from jersey and so he counts like 16 different tracks as his home track So like you I think you actually have an advantage. You should think about that. Yeah That's good to know but luke list and mckenzie hues are 75 to 1 Tom hoagie's 80 to 1 And then we have jonathan vegas keith mitchell patrick rogers brant snedeker at 100 to 1 charlie hoffman alex noran and hudson swafford 120 to 1 We'll be talking about vegas later. We gotta we gotta talk about our guy later on as well Weather for this week looks all good. The winds don't get above 10 miles per hour. So should be set for that Let's dive into our player picks here for the farmers insurance open starting off in the top the top range brandon Who stands out to you? The name we may have talked about earlier on Yeah, like I feel silly, but at the salary of 12,200 like jon rom is not Again, I know we're talking about he's under salary. You can say like we're we're talking about balanced lineups, but You I think you just played jon rom in a cash game and you because whatever whatever ostensible shift like upgrade you're getting from let's say let's say like A vegas at 87 to A homa at 95 Like you drop that down. You're like, okay. I'll play dustin johnson or brison or burger Instead of like give me rom and in vegas there over Like even brison and homa in most lineups. So Again, I look I know you don't need us to tell you to play jon rom, but realistically like The salary is too low. He's he's a fair wind value at plus 750 in my wind simulation model He's so good at tories so good overall. He's so good right now just like As someone who loves game theory, it doesn't really apply to jon rom playing the way that he's doing right now He's not just the highest salary golfer in the favorite out of because someone has to be it's because he's the best in the world yeah, and like a big part of game theory is the assumption that like People overestimate how good they may be with jon rom. They're probably not doing that just because he is like so good so Even the game theory consideration kind of doesn't fit here because like he actually is that good So for cash games. Yes, you lock in rom and i'm Comfortable being overweight with him on tournaments, you know, uh, there are a lot of good guys here So I don't want to go 80% but like, you know, i'm comfortable being overweight on him for sure My top high salary guy if we exclude rom is sam burns. I do want to talk about him a bit more here kind of like a major field where You can still save a bit and get an absolute stun. I think that burns is that 11-2 We don't even have a ton of super recent form on burns because he has played just the toc so far in january He lost 1.3 t-degree in there, but over the fall burns won the sanderson farms He was 14th at the shriners fit at the cj cup Send to the houston open none of those are elite elite events, but he was 8th at the bmw He was second at the wgc st. Jude. Those are good events burns not as long as some guys but he can keep up So I think sam burns is really fun and I like him a lot this week at 11-2 Brandon your thoughts on sam burns Like i'm just probably not going to get there myself probably going to play scottie sheffler instead. So talk to me about sheffler So sheffler to me I think could get lost in the shuffle a bit because we have all these other names Might get lost in the sheffel a little bit. Yes Could he could He should just do that for the rest of that. No, that's not true because I hate my solar pods. I hate doing those by myself, but Sheffler deserves tension. Uh, anyone who's not watching jim just uh temporarily left, but I'm back. Sorry Um, sheffler at a sub 11 000 salary. I think makes a lot of sense 90th percentile and adjusted t-degree and play long off the t as well 25th of the american express last week with good iron play Had had some good results to end november um He's just he's going to be kind of an anchor for me this week Yeah, I think he reads it really well. Uh, the one hang up for me is that I do still worry a bit about the short game stuff, but you know, I mean He's really good elsewhere. So the salary does kind of account for that. So I get it for sure I'm not quite as high on him, but I get it T7 last year at, uh, us open Yeah, put it really well though make sense My second high salary guy is the person you thought I didn't like tony finau Finau is not finished top 10 since the northern truss. So You might look at that and worry about form, but a lot of that is related to putting Finau had a string of forestry measured events where he lost at least two strokes putting He did still manage to make the cut in all but one of those The rest has still been very good. He ranks 37th in distance 36th in approach 19th around the green the past 50 rounds He's also an above average putter on poa Uh, we've seen finau be great at torey pines. He has four top 10s and seven trips to the farmer's insurance. So I think finau actually does great out pretty well this week at 11 one I could talk myself into just jumping down to like the Speed gooch, etc. Etc. But I do think that finau is interesting. What are your thoughts on tony finau this week? Yeah, like him. I think he's a little bit overvalued from a betting standpoint this week, but Um, nothing really bad to say about him. My my dilemma is I prefer bryson For more salary or again just jumping down saving a little bit more With the speed or shuffler. Yep. Okay. So let's move down to the mid-range guys We can include gooch in here if you want. But like, you know, um, give us roughly the mid-range for you mathew wolf 9900 uh odds have shifted from 70 to 55 That's what you like to see from, you know, if you're if you're backing someone and you got that number earlier um The the great form didn't translate to the return last week that he had um, you know ending 2021 Mr. Cut at the american express had poor ball striking at the stadium course, but over the past six months Wolf is 23rd in true stroke scan according to data golf Short game is actually really good for someone who hits it as long as he does I think that's something that people don't quite realize with wolf is that his wedges and putting is is really good and that's why Whenever the ball striking is there he Can really separate With drew from this event last year with the hand injury 21st of the year prior and 15th of the us open last year as well Was last year the one where he was like 16 over in the first round with drew Yeah, um The form recently he's had he's shown the spikes again, which I think is encouraging But I think that like for cash games you would not be going here, correct Correct. That's why I said like after gooch. I think everything drops off. I do not feel safe with yeah anyone With a four-digit salary Yes, I think that's a good way to phrase it. Uh, my first mid salary guy is navverk mcnealy. He Isn't a standout with either his distance or his approach, but he does a lot of stuff really well I think that's encouraging. He's 40th in distance 44th in approach 9th in poa putting that's across 39 rounds Which is actually not a terrible sample size relative to the field mcnealy Was awesome against the lesser fields over the swing season, but when you adjust for field strength He does measure up well too. So I think that he's easily worth nine nine I perform over wolf nine nine from over wolf. I think that he Is solid, but realistically I'm going to try pretty hard to get back up to gooch rather than going for mcnealy But you know, I can have both too. I think that's probably a viable route. What are your thoughts on mcnealy? Yeah, like him Um, not as much as wolf, but he's really playing better and better golf good putting surface splits for this week Nothing bad to say about him. Okay. Let's move uh, stay in the mid-range. Go a little bit lower though. Who else do you like here? So I'm gonna stick with air and why is over max homa 9400 for a wise is that salary? Hasn't played since mid-Devember, which is a concern But it's not like these guys can't come back and play good golf you just kind of want to see a little bit of rust knocked off but That's not gonna get me off of Aaron wise at 94 prior to prior to that layoff He had started the new pga tour season with five straight top 26s Historically hasn't been good at tori, but has much better form now than then So i'm not gonna let that bog me down either. I think the salary relative to what Aaron wise can do Is a bit too low. Yeah, I think that wise is someone who is very interested in this range is the range. That's not great But like I do think he's one of the guys I'd feel pretty comfortable using down here and other guys look list I know we talked about him before but like list is my uh mid-side player pick We know his issues it does help that he's nine one and everyone else down here has issues too. So Take the enemy, you know, I guess he's ninth in distance 26 in approach seventh around the green the past 50 rounds So it's really just the one flaw and it is a big one putting matters But list is overcome at both at this course and recently for some good finishes So I can live with all that for nine one. I think list is going to wind up being in a lot of my builds this week because I think so like the first drop-off is after gooch. I mean like the higher end drop-off that's a gooch I think there's another drop-off after wise list I think there were a couple other guys in the low 9000 range who I didn't mind Yeah, I think after that it's is where it falls off the second time long. So yeah, he's the one I'm trying to think of. Yep Oh, I thought you I thought you had more. Um I know I'm with you like there are just multiple drop-offs. So basically if you told me Hey, you we're gonna randomize who you have in your lineup from Taylor Gooch's salary and above I'd be like, I don't like that, but I'm fine with it. Like I'll take any of those guys realistically um But once you get past Taylor Gooch's salary, like There's a case for Matthew Wolfe. There's a case for McNeely. There's a case for Tringoli case for homa but You know and so maybe just by saying that alone We shouldn't get so caught up in the balance lineup, but I do think that a modified balance where um, you're getting four guys at Taylor Gooch's salary and above and just Maybe overlooking the mid 9000 a little bit to get down To some values who because like the the mid the low 9000s aren't that much better than the high 8000s So might as well save like 700 on each of those and get back up to um, like a shuffler or something like that, I would agree with that Let's move down to the uh value tier for this week again kind of sketchy a lot of guys in here who uh I mean everyone in here has flaws, uh, but whose flaws are you most willing to accept this week? Tom Hoge it's been up and down 12th cut fifth cut since 2018 at the farmers, but there's an overall upward trend for him Could have some popularity after the solo second, but it's still a good case. Good iron play 87th percentile and adjusted iron play over the past year according to my data Close to baseline putting on both of the surfaces and play this week. So Good irons good form good putting that's enough for me because Again, there's not a whole lot else to love I'd agree that too. I think that Hoge works I would say I'm going to take some risks on Keith Mitchell this week. He's not Still the best approach player, but he can Nuke it off the tee his short game might be getting better big old question mark over the past 11 events Mitchell has gained three plus strokes putting five times and that's not sustainable So keep that in mind But it does show that he has the ability to hit the highs and it's helped him get two top fives and four top tens in that span He's also gaining around the greens, which is a new thing and Mitchell has been In the green on approach and for the past five events. So He's not losing at least I guess there So It's a pretty fun profile. Even if the floor is still stig. So I think I'm going to you know, uh There are some Keith Mitchell lineups this week and see what happens. What about you? Um I think that I think the iron plays just too bad Until it's not sure until it's not it's a terrible one poa For now For now until he becomes the next tiger woods or dustin johnson on poa Let's let's go with that, you know, let's let's leave open the dj possibility Just blown it out there. Uh, who else do you like here in the value range? Uh, gary woodland 8800 us open narrative in california, I guess you could shoot horn in here Maybe um, if you if you're looking for that, but I think really realistically We've said this enough, but the bottom really falls out So I might as well look for some upside and I think woodland still has that based on what his profile is I missed three straight cuts. Um, missed the mx last week, but he's been gaining distance. He's been gaining approach um 78th percentile over the past year with adjustments and At this event over the past five years. He's finished 20th 12th 9th cut in 48th. So ball striking is there. Um I'm fine with gary woodland compared to a lot of these other options down here Yeah, I can see the case for woodland too. I'm okay with him as well I also want to talk about johnny vegas, uh, $8700. Did miss the cut last week? Which hurt for sure But fine going back here as a value, uh guy He is fifth in distance 16th and approach that should put him in Good position from a ball striking perspective Poa has been the worst surface and for vegas. That's a 96 round sample. He's been around for a long time so obviously that's not great and The more recent history at the farmers Does reflect those poa struggles, but he does some good finishes at the farmers and his more distant past And I think his form right now is rounding up, uh, which is encouraging too So I can live with that. What are your thoughts on vegas as we get $8700 Like him. He's got he's got the distance That'll work and we know that he can go low and again This is not a course where you for courses where you're going to go super low But so many birdies five unders not going to do it. Yeah, most likely So I think vegas is again one of the one of the standout values, uh, charlie hoffman as well Who we didn't talk about but I think between hoagie woodland hoffman vegas I don't really need to jump down too much Unless we go with joseph bramlett I think adam shank is at least worth mentioning tons of missed cuts, but It's kind of makes him look worse than he is and he puts well on on bank grass and poa. Yeah, I think that, uh If we stick to those main guys, I don't want to dabble too much outside of that But I also think the other pitch for bramlett is that we're not super convinced of anyone down here Maybe just take more savings. I think that could be A case to be made for him as well Let's finish up here at the windpicks for the farmers insurance open I did not pick my boy shameless power last week and I felt pretty stupid about that on saturday Um sunday, obviously a different story, but like, you know, I'll sweat it a little bit. I was like, oh boy I might have uh missed out on my boy's, uh ascension Based on the current odds of fan dual sportsbook. Who are you turning to this week? um, so I I'm gonna say bryson at 19 Okay, even though I haven't bet that myself. I have bet cheffler Okay, even though he's not 29. I'll stick with that Okay, so you have cheffler 29 and bryson at 19 you said yes, okay It's tough I would have considered speeth Yeah, if this was a little bit more of a Long shot winner sort of event. I might have said wise yeah That's my main pitch against taylor gooch. I think that gooch is really interesting But also can I expect him to realistically beat rom JT zander. That's my one hang up with him But I do like him past five winners here patrick reid mark leishman. Justin rose jason day john rom yeah That's tough. Um I mean it was sam burns for one of them 24 to 1 do it And I'll go to speeth actually at 34 to 1 just because I think that that number isn't necessarily counting for like his upside and his ability to like Bank everything. So I'll have speeth at four or 34 burns at 24 You're going with cheffler 29 and de shambo at 19 as our win picks for this week That'll wrap up things here on the heat check fantasy podcast brandon before we wrap up any final thoughts for you on this farmer's insurance field um Really go through the studs and narrow down to who you want to play this week Can't play them all should you I take some stands rank them think about it differently if you want But I think john rom still deserves attention in tournaments And I would put long consideration into which tiers you want to be in most because there are tiers That great out a lot better than others. So put consideration into that for this week and decide Your comfort level with those that is what we got here for today on the heat check fantasy podcast as mentioned Though a lot of good stuff here on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed nfl conference championship preview coming up on thursday 10 a.m on the fandal youtube page and up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed after that So hit subscribe and if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well Brandon if people have questions for you on twitter, where can they find you there? I'm at goodwill 13 g d u l a 13 and I'm at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your dfs lineups We'll talk to you once again next week again. Don't forget to get your lineups in by wednesday morning for this week We'll talk to you once again next week. 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