 Welcome back folks. Dow. Dow is up to 29 Nasdaq's down 11 S&Ps are down five and a half Let's go to our members to Teddy cakes that as we do each and every Wednesday at 40 past the hour You can reach Teddy every trading day folks at Forex dash trading dash unlock calm That's Forex dash trading dash unlocked calm Teddy cakes that what's going on brother It's an FOMC day today. That's what's going on. I'm telling you you are only on in the best days man Yeah, right? It's so true. I mean, it's like, you know, it just seems that on these Wednesdays. That's when you know I mean, we're looking for movement and currencies and and There's no doubt that dollars hanging up there, right? Yeah, and as the market turns, right? I think everyone's got to look at the dollar index right now. Yes. Yes. So what do you think? Well, here's what I think I think that Until the Fed meeting is done today at 115. I think it's gonna be kind of a quiet trade At least that's what I think but you know, it's kind of crazy is the major currency crosses They're not paying attention that there must be oblivious to a Fed meeting so the dollar index pressed higher again today and it's come off its highs and Your major is like the pound dollar that set a low yesterday It's very strong this morning going into like once our markets opened up And that's a rarity. Usually when you get a currency move like this It starts before our markets open. They were actually kind of quiet until we started opening up around here I say so I think that We're gonna see possibly a turn in the dollar right now a short term sell off because everything's factored in I mean, honestly unless the FOMC meeting today they come out and actually cut rates Which that today is not the day they're gonna do it. That would be a shocker, you know That would obviously shake up the markets. Yeah, I don't think they're gonna change their tone either guys I think you guys know that right now we're pricing in at least a quarter point before the end of the year I think it's like somewhere between 65 and 85 percent depending on who's radiant And even a two cuts before the end of the year. I know. Yeah, it's almost a 50-50 In my opinion, I don't know about you guys. I think that either they're aware of some things that we're not aware of It seems almost preemptive. I don't know why they want to cut rates even remotely I think they should save their bullets and Then you had the ECB also they came out where we know that we've talked about this before how they're gonna be Remaining neutral for the next year, but they came out with some stuff this week that they're gonna actually probably bring back some Quantitative easing kind of stuff. So Synthetically, they are gonna start to cut rates over in the in the euro zone. Yes, there are things I think people need to pay attention after today But I think there's gonna be a short-term turn I think that the the high is in and the dollar index for the day and maybe the next few sessions And you're probably gonna see the pound dollar could as long as the dollar index doesn't rally if it breaks You're gonna probably see follow-through in the pound dollar to the upside the euro US dollar probably go to the upside And then you have the US dollar Swiss, which is already the leader. That's they're banging their lows right now They're actually offer right now I was looking at the chart before we came on and they were lower earlier and I was looking at oh my gosh These guys are hammering it already, you know, so yeah, so, you know And it was so intriguing here teddy is that you know when draggy came out yesterday I mean he moved the markets right across the world and what you know the equity markets for sure Well, he moved the you've moved the pound the dollar. I mean, you know the euro also, right? I mean, so this isn't yeah, yeah, the end yeah, just laying there, huh? That chart I'm telling you like I was I was looking at and talking to some people this morning They asked me about the end and I'm like all I know is if you've been trading the end for the past two weeks Whether you're long or short you had to have gotten chewed up All right, because it's still what he's telling saying folks is still laying at the exact same number And what's intriguing about that yen? You know when you take a look at it Is that would you're gonna see it in the yen folks is a spike low and I remember that day? That's a real that's a real trade That was that was a vicious little deal that happened What's that? But January 3rd. Yes, January 3rd that thing spiked down to 104 87 And it closed at 107. I mean that was like a good saying wipe out somewhere, you know, right? It was kind of reminiscent someone the pound to buckle back 20 years ago. Yes. Yeah, that was 10 years ago 20 20 years 20 20 20 years ago. Oh, thanks. So I think that was late 90s. Yeah. Oh my god You remember when Soros made a billion I have yeah, I remember it. That's what's in the set. It's just said Believe it was 10 years ago. I was surprised it was 20 Oh No telling you so but yeah, I think that you're listeners who trade the currency markets Or they should really watch that dollar index now if they today's trade you guys know how it is with FOMC We could see all kinds of head fakes going around. Yes, so after today Tomorrow I would check the dollar index and see what it's doing if it's making newer highs Well, then that dollar bull is here and it's definitely not going anywhere going is probably gonna try Into the G 20 meeting. Okay, and that would also mean that the markets that we talked about now like the pound dollar the euro Um versus the dollar they're in rally mode right now They would collapse and make newer move lows for sure Boy, it's gonna be a lot of moves, huh? Yeah, and this is I mean, you know, the real question is gonna be going forward, too Are we gonna actually get in a currency war, right? You know because yeah, I think we're already in one. Okay, okay? Yeah, yeah, yeah, and I think the news is a little bit lagging that issue and they've been kind of like I mean Economic warfare goes on no matter what all every year in and out no matter what the situations are right I mean usually it's waged by central banks and right now we have a time where central banks are actually being neutral They're off the table This is all done between the leadership of different countries because of the tariff wars and then we even have the whole Brexit EU thing, you know, so it started with that that's been lingering and now it's escalated with the US and China. Yeah Man, it's a lot of moving pots. This is gonna be why watching this, you know, it's wild I mean, I remember, you know, there's always days that you're saying, okay, which way is this gonna go? But it seems like this one is a larger one because of the context that if we do have a turn that they say, okay You know, we've been going up by as Kevin Hink said four nine nine times So what's that we've been going up for like three years, maybe right and if they're gonna really say that okay We're going down. That's like, okay. Now. What's gonna be the game? Buck there, you know, and I Guess the one thing though is there's a good harmonic play going on with a dollar index because Which are the two biggest components seem to be trading, you know in tandem with the moves They're, you know, obviously against the trend. So when they're telling they're breaking and conversely, you know So I think for those traders that are out there trading the euro and the pound especially You can key off the dollar index your broader base currencies to some degree I think yes, you're like you're New Zealand dollar and Aussie dollar and Canada for sure The Japanese yen though. All I can tell you is if the dollar and if the dollar gets a rally Okay, yeah in the index I think that you might raise the range of the Japanese US dollar yen trade a bit, you know, okay If there's an extended rally, I don't see that the yen is gonna follow that trend You know, I think that's the one that's kind of landlocked towards range trading bias So I mean I trade the yen dollar trade every once in a while right now I'll tell you what with the way it looks I'm not gonna look at this thing for a very long time until it's actually sets a trend and gives me a reason to eat Well, it's so intriguing what you're saying because like gold is still high and What I've seen is that every time that the yen gets strong at all gold stays up And maybe the ends keep them gold up because it's like normally when the dollars is high gold should be smoked man And it's refusing to back off man. Yeah, yeah, right. There's an ARB somewhere there coming up Yeah, there's no doubt listen folks every trading day you can check them out at trading forex dash forex dash trading dash unlock.com Teddy have a great one. Stay flat in the footage. See you next week Thanks, Teddy. Oh white socks. We got the crosstown