 Let's go over our mammoths to Steve Rhodes as we do each and every Monday at twenty past the hour and don't forget folks Steve has an outstanding show here every trading day One to two Eastern standard time also has a great newsletter mastering probability Now it's very easy to get his newsletter folk come over our website at TFN You'll see it right in the featured content. You just hit that button. You hit subscribe You can get mastering probability for one month for a hundred and forty nine dollars You can get it for six months for 695 which is a savings of a hundred and ninety nine dollars or twenty two percent and One full year you can get for eleven ninety five, which is a savings of five hundred ninety three dollars or thirty three percent Now they all come folks with a 30-day money back guarantee. So you go you get the newsletter Get it for a month. You like the newsletter bottom line. That's great If it doesn't work for you for some reason guess what you can get your money back. So check it out hit Featured content hit our mammoth to Steve Rhodes mastering probability and you are off to the races Steve Rhodes. What's going on? Hey, Tom, do you use the ring? System or app by any chance or something like that the what? Ring, you know for your house the doorbell at your house and oh, yeah, I got a bunch of different ones. Yes. Yes So I installed the ring about a year ago Okay, and you know, it is nice because obviously with all the you know people Amazon folks and yeah PS and everybody dropping off it is nice to have that But what are the other features that's on there is if there's something going on your neighborhood, you know It'll send a message now. This is the first time just literally two minutes ago. Okay. I get a message It reads a 1a SWAT blocked off and it goes to describe the streets where the SWAT team has blocked off Which is just two blocks away. Okay from from where I'm at So so to be kind of after after this segment I'm gonna walk outside see if I can try to figure out what's going on It's there's no doubt. I I know it's just cool cool to be aware, you know that it is absolutely cool to be aware It's yeah, there's no doubt man. I mean because yeah, there's because that those off chances That and especially now right especially now because you know things are a little heightened Hey, you were talking about inflation and and you know the folks that did all you have to do is go to the grocery store And buy groceries and or pay gas here in Boca area, you know We paid over 450 a gallon over the weekend I heard you actually and you did it last week because I heard you would be paid over four bucks I don't know was it Wednesday or Thursday show it Listen man, you know, it is it blows my mind. Well, I guess it shouldn't blow our mind Okay, because the bottom line is that they're just they're too paranoid to go up. That's the bottom line It's not gonna go up. I mean and you can see it rates are going down instead of going up folks Okay, and and Europe it's the same way and our rates are actually high compared to Europe So it is what it is and right, man So let's go back to the markets here real quickly if we can as we always discuss or we take a look at often You know our seasonal cycle and we know that mid-October Typically marks the beginning of the favorable seasonal cycle This is the pattern for the a Dow over the last that 80 plus years out here And this year that the bottom signal for the Dow came in an October 5th And that was a confirmed roadsman to Mindicator bottom So now got the bottom patterns in there The other thing is that as we take a look at the Dow This switch over to the Dow equity future contract out here the little white rectangle area folks is the consolidation pattern And the cool thing about consolidation patterns is that when they're broken They provide us with a measured move either to the upside or to the downside that measured move is equal to The consolidation now the actual move itself can be equal to or greater than the consolidation So the nice thing about this is that the Dow equity future contract has busted through the consolidation When it busted through it actually came back and tested the top of the consolidation Rejected that and this suggests that during this favorable seasonal cycle, which should last through about the Early part of january or between the first and third week of january This suggests that the Dow equity future contract should go target the 37 363 area now folks don't don't Is that all man, no I said equal to or greater that I know listen man, uh I love the idea that you've walked us through this for a you know a long period of time steven It just blows my mind trust me that you know looser in in october and we're in the best season and I can see it I mean, it's it's crazy, but it is what it is. Sorry. Go ahead man No, no exactly it is and so the s&p 500 is it's got the same pattern folks So here I'm showing the es mini and we can see how price broke through the consolidation like the a dow Price did come back for one day tested and rejected and this suggests that it's off to a minimum of about 4823 bucks or so You know in that area so that's what the a little bit bigger picture at least going through the end of the year Looks like however, there's always a gotcha here a price doesn't always go up Sometimes it pulls back out here and the s&p 500 today Will generate what I refer to as a td9 topping signal Uh in a td9 pattern the high tom can come in on bars eight the bars nine or the bar following nine So I've got a couple of blue arrows out here to show us some other td9 count patterns now What this is telling us is that uh that either it has already taken place, which was friday's high Yeah, I don't think we've taken out friday's high yet Or we could take that out tomorrow And so by tomorrow we should have a td9 count topping pattern in place for the s&p 500 the first downside price target will be again this what I refer to as the oscillator and changeline Which is currently green now the the important part about that Is if we do get this td9 count top that takes hold price should pull back to that level now Right now it's printed at 46 44 as price pulls down that level will move down a little bit or so forth So folks don't use that as the exact number But if price pulls back to that level and rejects it that really becomes the next buy point for the s&p 500 during this favorable seasonal cycle So that was one of the reasons to show the favorable seasonal cycle Show the consolidation measure move breakout then anticipate in the shorter term timeframe what the signals are See if price pulls back to that 46 44 level and if it does that becomes the buy point during this favorable seasonal cycle And if a top of any significance is going to form The other thing that we want to look at tom is that spot volatility index The blue line that is on this chart is the 50-day exponential moving average And currently that's printing at about 1771 If we were to see a close above 1771 that is bad news for the s&p 500 Now bad news would simply mean at a minimum We should see price pull back to that oscillator and change line level if price closed below that We'll have to take a look at other levels of support The reason that I say that and folks at home can do this and that would and this is Put a chart put the s&p 500 on the top of the chart at the bottom put the spot volatility index Add to it the 50-day exponential moving average Which is the red line at the bottom panel and then go ahead and mark off the segments where the spot Volatilics is above or below that 50-day exponential moving average when the spot volatility index And I've got it marked here in some of the yellow rectangles or squares out there When the spot volatility is above that level the 50-day exponential moving average That's when we have these pullbacks out here. So that's what to look for it becomes pretty easy Not the technical analysis is easy But if we narrow down just to a few things out here, then it becomes a little bit easier So if we look at all four daily equity future contract the es the nq and the doll All have these td9 count patterns inside the russell 2000 it doesn't but the russell 2000 Cash indices at least as of about a half an hour ago was looking like it might form a shooting star candle That would confirm a sell the d-point. So everything is setting up here tom for the markets to move higher Into the end of the year But we've got a little bit of a short-term detour and that should be price pulling back to that oscillator and change line I got to tell you and folks so I get coffee this morning, right? This is crazy steve, okay um And the guy's a great, you know bartender in the back right getting coffee The bottom line is a computer going up, right? And he's making coffee and i'm looking at the computer I says that crypto. He says oh no no. He says I change I trade the option market I said you trade spreads. He says oh, no, I don't I don't know what a spread is I bag calls I called tommy up. I says oh my god. This is unbelievable I love it. Have a great one man. Have a safe one. You too, tom. Stay right there folks to come right back