 Welcome back, welcome back, welcome back. It's still the breakfast, the plus CBA Africa and of course we are set for our second conversation. This time the focus is on the impending removal of fuel subsidy. Remember the fuel subsidy protests and the Occupy Nigeria protests some years ago and well maybe those protests were only postponing the evil day because that day is just around the corner. It's not even about when if fuel subsidy will be abolished in Nigeria but actually when and the federal government already making sticking steps to cushion the effect of that fuel subsidy removal. The focus stays on the increase in salaries of workers, government workers and of course barring any last-minute change of plans. The federal government of Nigeria will begin payment of planned increase in civil servants pay by the end of April 2023. Nigerian President Muhammad Ibu Harouz currently in Saudi Arabia is expected to give his final assent for this burstment of this money any moment from now. If the proposal sales through it means the increase will be coming about two months to the June date proposed for the removal of subsidy. Officials of the federal government are quoted as saying that the fresh pay increase which is tagged consequential allowance will lead to a 40% rise in the current pay of government workers in Nigeria. That's federal government workers. Nigeria's headline inflation increased to 22.04 percent year on year in March the highest rates in September 2005. According to the National Bureau of Statistics the latest rise in inflation is a third consecutive increase this year increasing by 0.13 basis points percentage points when compared to February 2023 headline inflation rate. I'm glad to say joining us to discuss this all-important subject is Muhammad Abdelai who is a public affairs analyst chances for a zoom from Lagos. Muhammad good morning to you thank you very much for your time. Alright first of all we're counting down to June like I said in my introduction you can only postpone the evil day and that day which was seen as an evil day may not be seen as an evil day these days as Nigerians a lot of a lot of analysts like yourself agree that the subsidy has to go and are you looking forward to that are you of the same view that this is the way for the country or the path the country should talk. Yes I think it's inevitable so many regime I mean since 1999 I mean from military regimes we've had a series of figures giving out you know being issued as a subsidy so it's it's if you look at those figures from 1999 date it's humongous in fact it's something that is unimaginable that is being paid as a subsidy for petroleum petroleum product so I think it's high time it is going to be very biting and I'm sure particularly for those who voted the incoming government they might not it's not something that will be palatable I'm probably they might begin to hold the incoming government responsible you know it would be like a month introduction by the new but incoming government which has been planned like you mentioned actually but like I said it's not going to be palatable it's going to be a bit tough because we all know Nigerians even though we very many of us do not understand or do not even like the subsidy thing but we've benefited to some extent because if we want to be very factual like what government keeps saying in Nigeria Nigeria is where we you know compared to so many African countries around us even those who have crude oil we still buy fuel at the cheapest street for a very long time so it's going to be very biting it's not going to be palatable it's going to present a whole lot of economic hardship but I want to believe what the government is planning for short and long time we'll be able to question the the effect of the hardship that will be that will put upon Nigerians when the first subsidy is finally removed in June hopefully some some experts argue that the Nigerian inflation is higher there is at a higher rate than what the national real statistics is is is putting out and in fact the World Bank has also come out to say that them the Nigerian authorities need to change the methodology of calculating inflation you need to update it and when they do that they will get the real inflation which is we are the what we look where we was contained in the latest MBS data that was released inflation is a big issue elementary economics that I learned from my economics teacher in secondary school Mr. Bleghe you know tells us that when there's too much money in the system and that inflation will increase when people have there's too much money you know the supply of money increases are we seeing conflicting let me say lack of focus and direction by this administration in terms of his fiscal policies you know and even monetary policies it's economic and financial policies are we seeing the mister misdirection lack of to we can't even can we tell what exactly the one to achieve in other words will this current move to bring in a 40% increase in workers salary will it not you know go against what they've been trying to achieve with all we went through in recent months of trying to bring down inflation by making the Naira scarce trying to strengthen the Naira which already is still struggling by the way yes it's a very difficult question I am not an economist but the best of ability I would say what I actually understand I do not think is my opinion please I do not think we have too much money in circulation at the moment I mean in Nigeria there are not too many too much money in people's hands because like we already mentioned we have series of challenges in terms of even the the scarcity of funds and so on and as well you know workers are not whether in the private or public sector workers are not like properly compensated you know compared to their effort and label which means you know for what they take home it's it's it's actually me got compared to you know the economic situation and the economic situation in the country you know for everything that you buy probably in fact when you when you buy anything today you go back to the market tomorrow or the day after tomorrow it has doubled the price or at least a quarter of the price is added so I I do not see how humbly this my opinion as well as a layman I do not see anyhow in fact in the government trying to like increase the salaries of of workers perhaps probably even the private sector should to take you you might be you might argue that yes that might increase the rate of inflation but again we also need to understand that even at the moment workers are finding it very very difficult to you know to to to balance to have a purchasing power with what they end so it's it doesn't it doesn't it makes sense that yes there there should be an increase in salaries in order to match I mean the economic situation in the country because like I mentioned earlier everything that you can think of in terms of survival rent accommodation transportation food and so on and so forth have gone up you know here while skyrocketed so the government listens to workers and then at this moment increase workers salary in spite of the fact that yes that might also trigger inflation but mind you what I feel also this my opinion also what I feel is you know sometimes this this this inflation that we talk about is actually man made it's not it's not the forces of the demand and supply perceived it's not a general problem particularly for instance in Nigeria when government makes the announcement for instance that there is workers that's increased in salary you know it's just normal that for people who sell you know they think oh yeah you are getting more money we need to increase what the price of what we sell so it's actually not a direct correlation of demand and supply it's just people's greed if I may use that word seriously you know it's just people's greed in terms of you know say okay workers are getting more salary then definitely I will let me increase my price so that I can also get more so it's not even if sometimes or most times it's not a correlation of a worker are trying workers are trying to buy more this is my belief anyway so I think probably we needed to do as a country to checkmate that all right the Bureau of Public Sector reforms last year put the number of public servants at the federal level at 720,000 thanks to the IPPI so she's making it easy to see some of these things so we look at 720,000 federal workers who will have to see a 40% increase in how much to get every month you add that amount most by by 12 you know how much a federal going to spend in a calendar year to pay these workers it'll be added to the budget now yesterday the World Bank revealed that Nigeria spent 96.3% of its revenue all the money it made in servicing its debt in the year 2022 we won't be sitting going around the country might be higher if not the same in 2023 where will the government get the money to pay this 40% increase in workers salary at federal level that's a very tough question for me to answer seriously I think President Buhari should be you know I think if I want to guess for government let me is you be just like a guesswork now because seriously I can't answer this question properly but to the best of my knowledge I think government have been boring in the past years probably that is another angle what we are what the government is also looking at because I know like you had mentioned what our government is making in terms of revenue might be a bit difficult and challenging to pay 40% salaries like you mentioned increase and then you know still make do with providing infrastructure and so on and so forth so perhaps government might be looking towards borrowing or partnership as it may be for them to be able to achieve that target so but this question should be she'll best be answered by people in government but particularly the president or the minister of finance do you would you like to see the private sector to the same line of increasing salaries by at least 40% private sector Nigeria yes it's it's like I mentioned everything has car rocket in terms of pricing you know transportation in fact because of the full crisis and you know like I mentioned earlier again you know some of our challenges are so man-made it defies all kinds of economic theories seriously because for instance I know in Lagos where I live and other parts of Nigeria where I visit as well you know once price increase is made it's so difficult it's so so difficult for it to be to be reduced for instance in terms of transportation around Lagos mainland I know there are some places you could actually take buses to for probably 15 a hundred nera but since the world as Cassidy's of two three months ago and which is now for the past one month those places that you could take buses to for 50 hundred nera has refused you know the transporters have refused to to go back to the status quo you know they remain like the 200 nera or so that they increase it to even though the pricing of the of fuel have significantly gone back to what they used to buy so like I said you know so many of our challenges defies economic theories and and and what have not so it's a it's challenging but again in this kind of situation you also want the private sector because people majority of Nigerians in fact majority of Nigerians are working in the private sector as safe employer and so on and so forth it's it's also important that where these private sectors are making humongous profit is also important that a trickle down beyond the CEOs the board members the managers to those people actually do the work probably not outtrack 40% increase like you suggested but at least probably at the end of the year where there is significant profit in such organization what I'm suggesting or recommending is that these profits should trickle down to we have to quickly move on sorry about that news is just about four minutes away we have to move on I'm sincerely sorry we have to move but thank you so much for your time and of course we look forward to having you again subsequently on the program thank you very much all right fantastic okay that's the size of a package on the breakfast right here on plus TV Africa we'll be back tomorrow with more analysis and of course some conversations right here on the program don't forget you can follow us on our social media platforms we have plus TV Africa on Facebook Twitter Instagram and YouTube where we have two accounts plus TV Africa and plus TV Africa lifestyle you can also check our website out for the latest news and analysis and information as well my name is Kofi Bartels return tomorrow thank you very much for your time good morning