 Well, thank you. Welcome everyone. Thanks for joining us today. My name is Kelly Askvig. I'm a Senior Program Officer for the Ocean Studies Board at the National Academies, and I'm the study director for this study. Let's see. I think we can do next slide. Okay, so for virtual meeting participants, the logistics here are to meet yourself when you're not speaking. We had a few more sound issues there and to use the raise hand function for Q&A in the Zoom to ask questions. And we ask everyone to have your camera on when you are speaking and kind of support an inclusive community with those of us, those that are joining us remotely. Next slide. Let's see. Okay. So for those of you that are not familiar with the National Academies or our processes, I'll give you a one minute overview. So we're a private nonprofit institutions that provide independent objective analysis and advice to the US to solve complex problems and inform public policy and decisions related to science, technology and medicine. We are first established by Abraham Lincoln in 1863. Today is the second meeting of the Committee on the Evaluation of Hydrodynamic Modeling and Implications for Offshore Wind Development for Nantucket-Scholls Region. This work is sponsored by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, referred to as BOEM. And we've assembled a committee of nine volunteers who were chosen for their expertise and experience, and they serve pro bono to carry out the study's statement of task, which you'll hear more about in a few minutes. Next slide. And to accomplish this work, the committee will hold four meetings for the purposes of public information gathering like today, deliberation, report writing and response to our peer review. The result of all this work will be a peer reviewed report representing the consensus view of the committee. The report is expected to be released into the public in the fall of 2023. Next slide, please. And next slide. We do have a public project website that includes information about past and upcoming events, and I will post a link to the website in the chat in just a minute. Next slide, please. And so before we begin, we want to have a brief safety moment. This is easy for the people that are joining us in person. This is the first floor of the Keck building. So if there is an emergency, you exit exactly the way that you came in. So just go down this hallway, take a right. And then our meeting place is in the, in the lawn of the building museum across the street, and you'll see masses hurting that way. And then also if you need to use restroom, that's on your way as well. So just take a right down the hall and there's a ladies and men's room. And next slide, please. So hybrid meeting logistics again so this is a true hybrid meeting. Many people are here with us today in DC, and several people are joining us remotely from wherever they happen to be. So, in order to promote an inclusive environment we are asking everyone in the, in the DC office to turn on their zooms and use their camera when they're speaking. Turn off your audio when you're not speaking. The folks in the room, you need to make sure your computer audio is off, which I think we've got we've got down now. And then virtual participants, you know, we ask that you also meet yourself when you're not speaking. And all participants please just use the raise hand function again like I said earlier. And I think that's all I have. Yeah, let's jump into the meeting so I'll introduce our committee chair now sitting next to me, Dr Eileen Hoffman. She is a professor and eminent scholar in the Department of Ocean and Earth Sciences and a member of the Center for Coastal Physical Oceanography, both both at Old Dominion University, her research interests are in the areas of physical biological interactions and marine ecosystems environmental control and transmission of marine diseases and descriptive physical oceanography. Eileen has served on several committees at the National Academies, and we are very pleased to have her leading the study. The floor is yours Eileen. Okay, that works. All right, so we're all lined up here. So anyway, thank you Kelly. And it is definitely my pleasure to welcome everyone here and thank you for making the time and effort to be here. This is an important committee, and the task of this committee is shown here on the slide. So the objective of the study is to understand the potential effects of offshore fixed bottom wind turbine generators on marine hydrodynamics, and the resulting impacts on marine mammals, specifically the North Atlantic right whale prey. The three focus areas for the committee are shown on this slide here. I'm not going to read them to you. You can you can look at them and they're available on the website that Kelly mentioned earlier. So I hope everyone had an opportunity to look at the agenda for the meeting. So this this meeting is structured to provide inputs to the three focus areas shown on the slide here. And what we're going to do we're going to start with the current state of understanding of hydrodynamics and prey resources in the Nantucket Shoals region. We're going to get inputs and lessons from our European colleagues about their experiences with offshore wind energy development. Next we'll have an overview of the models that are used to simulate hydrodynamic conditions and and look at the effects of turbines on the wind field, and then we'll end with a perspective from our industry partners. We have a real packed agenda to get through today. And so we'll go ahead and get started. But before we do that I'd like to have the committee members and the invited speakers for today, introduce themselves as well as our sponsors and I think I'll start with the people on the zoom zoom here and if I can do that. Should I turn my camera up to do this. Yeah. Okay, so what I'm going to yeah there we go. I can see all right so what I'm going to do is ask the people on zoom to please introduce yourself. First and then we'll introduce the people sitting in the in the room here. All right, so if we start here. All right, I'll just look at people on my screen here. Ariana Zampolo, please, which if you briefly introduce yourself, and I'm just going to ask you to say your name your affiliation and maybe less than one sentence about your expertise. Okay, because we have a lot of introductions to get through it. Okay. Yes. So hi everyone. I'm Ariana Zampolo, I am from the University of Aberdeen in Scotland in the UK. I represent Professor Bettscott Group. And I did my PhD in like investigating the effect of offshore wind farms on primary production in the Scottish South London. Thank you. I think Goren, Goren Braustrom. Yes. Hello. Thank you for inviting me. My name is Geron Braustrom. I'm a professor in physical oceanography at the Department of Marine Science in the University of Gothenburg, Sweden. I do work on wind. I have worked a little bit on wind farm and that is my great appalling. Otherwise I work with the natural dynamics and also surface waves is something some of my interest. Thank you. Jeff Runge. Hi, I'm Jeffrey Runge. I am a professor in school marine sciences at the University of Maine. I guess my research specialty is in zooplankton ecology. I've worked with the Fisheries and Oceans Canada for many years in the Quebec region and before coming to the University of Maine. And I've spent a lot of my career studying the dinette population dynamics of copepods, especially callinous species. And I'm presently a science advisor for the NIRICU's integrated Sentinel Monitoring Network time series stations, which I'll report on later today. Thank you. Nick record, please. Hi, everyone. I'm Nick record. I'm a senior scientist at Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, which is up in Maine. I direct the Tandy Center for Ocean Forecasting there and I'm an ecosystem modeler. Mainly, I do work on a wide variety of things, including right whales, their prey, and underlying physics. And I'm also a member of the Atlantic Large Whale Take Reduction Team at NOAA convenes, or the Fisheries Service convenes. Hey, thank you. Let's see who's here. Tom Kilpatrick, please. Yeah, I'm not on the panel, but I'm on the committee. I work at BOME. I'm my background's in physical oceanography, satellite, working with satellites and with models. Thanks. Thank you. Let's see, Ute Dewey. Hi, I'm Ute Dewey. I am from the Hamilton Center on Herion in Germany. I'm working in marine ecosystem modeling on all kinds of problems, lower traffic levels, but also higher traffic levels and level fish drift. And lately I've been working quite a bit on human use impacts on customer marine ecosystems and among others also offshore wind developments and how they affect the physics and the ecosystems in the European waters and I will present that later today. Hey, thank you. York. Yeah. You're here. Oh, you're here. Oh, sorry. I'm, I'm getting confused here with names. So. Oh, hey, Peters is here as well. Yep. Okay. So I think we've hit everybody on zoom, I think. Have I missed anyone? Okay, then I think we'll start here. And will we start at the end of the table over there? Okay, so introduce yourself and go around. First of all, so my name is Jeff Carpenter. I'm a physical oceanographer from the Helmholtz Center, Herion in Germany, and I specialize in smaller scale ocean physics and especially turbulence. Hi, everyone. Good morning. And my name is your book. I'm a senior researcher at Delteris and team lead of our offshore engineering and marketing. And my own primary expertise is on local hydromorpho dynamics mainly related to scour sky protection. Good morning. I'm Jim Chen from Northeastern University in Boston. I'm a professor of civil environmental engineering doing coastal modeling in general. Good morning, Seth Kaplan. Good morning. Turn on my video. Seth Kaplan, director of government regulatory affairs at Ocean Winds with which Ariana will recognize as the folks with the projects in the Firtham Array in Scotland. And I previously was at Conservation Law Foundation for almost 20 years and now with Ocean Winds, which is a offshore wind developer working on both coasts the United States and many places around the world. My name is Seth Kaplan. I come from Northeastern Massachusetts. So I have been working on the offshore wind funds in 2014 for the BOUN. We'll find you the project. We have a Northeastern forecast system operation for US Coast Guard. So we also get a NOVA supporting working on offshore wind farm modeling. I'm from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and I'm a physical oceanographer. Welcome. I'm Mary Bultman. I'm with the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. I'm also the contracting officer's representative of government ease for this particular effort. And I want to say thank you a huge thank you to all of you for your time and your effort and your energy in this. I know it's fast paced. And we're asking a lot and I appreciate that you're all doing this voluntarily. And that's it. Thank you. I'll keep going. Brian Hooker also with BOUM and Echo Mary's. Thanks for being here. Hi, I'm Julia Singer. I am a marine scientist with Oceana who works on North Atlantic right wheels. Hi, I'm Jackie Schaff. I'm a canals fellow at the Marine Mammal Commission. So just here observing today. My name is Emily Hildreth and I'm with the policy group in BOUM's Office of Renewable Energy Programs as an observer. Thanks. Hi, my name is Erin Joberty. I'm a physical oceanographer and meteorologist and I'm with the environmental consulting firm AKRF. Hi, I'm Erin Meyer-Gutbrod. I'm from the University of South Carolina. And I research the impacts of changes in pre-availability on right wheel demography and distribution. Hello, everyone. Laura Morse with Invenergy. I'll be speaking toward the end of the session and developer session. My background is in ocean acoustics and physical oceanography. Most recently I've been working on effects of floating offshore wind and upwelling circulation in California. Good morning, everyone. Josh Kohut with Rutgers University. I'm a physical oceanographer and my research is really applying ocean observing technologies and models to understand dynamic habitats of different species. I'm Richard Merrick and I, by training, I'm a biological oceanographer. I just, I retired in 2017 from NOAA Fisheries as the chief scientist, which are there here in DC for five years. But prior to that, and one of the reasons I moved to Woods Hole from Alaska was to deal with right wheels. So for the last, since 1997, I've been working with North Atlantic right wheels. I'm also on the large whale take reduction team, which is really focusing on right wells. And I'm co-chair of the scientific review group, which is the MMPA acquired body that reviews all marine animal stock assessments on this coast. Right wells have been a major focus of that group, but other species that are affected by wind farm are also of interest. Thanks. Hi, I'm Tom Johnson. I'm Chief Operations Officer for the Americas for DHI Water and Environment. I'm the project manager for the ongoing project for BOEM, looking at looking at the cumulative impacts of offshore wind farms from North Carolina, South Carolina border up to New York Bight area. And I was also the project manager on the previous study, which was focused on the Massachusetts Rhode Island area. We did the hydrodynamics and then also looked at impacts on sea scallops, silver hake and summer flounder. And we're continuing that kind of work with this new study. My name is Ole Svendster Petersen. My name is Ole Svendster Petersen. I come from DHI or Danish hydraulic institute. It was in the old days. I'm principal engineer in the ocean department. And I've been working with offshore wind for the last many, many 20 years. So mainly as a modeler, development of models and application of models. And I'm also a scientist on the project that we work from for BOEM that Tom is leading. Thanks. Good morning. I'm Doug Noecek. I'm a professor at Duke University in the School of the Environment and the Engineering School. I also lead the Wildlife and Offshore Wind project that's supported by DOE and BOEM that's focused on the potential impacts of offshore wind development on marine mammals, sea birds and bats. And my area of study is bioacoustics and behavioral ecology of mostly large whales, but certainly spent a lot of time with North Atlantic right whales. Good morning. I'm Kristina Archer. I'm a professor at the University of Delaware in the departments of geography and special sciences and mechanical engineering. I'm also the director of the Center for Research in Wind. And I'm here to talk about wakes in the atmosphere from wind farms. Okay, I think that's everyone. Have we missed anyone on Zoom or any here? Okay, so thank you all again for making the time to be here and for your contributions to this fact-finding activity by the committee. I think we'll go ahead and get started with our agenda, jump right into it. And the first presentation we have today will be from Glenn Goarkowitz, who is a senior scientist at Woods Hole Oceanographic. He's an expert in coastal oceanography, particularly with frontal dynamics and observations and modeling of shelf-break fronts. And so Glenn is going to talk to us about the oceanography in the Nantucket Shoals. So please. Thank you, Eileen. Thank you, Eileen. I need to re-mute myself. Okay, so let's see. And then do I hit share screen on the... Should I run my own? Okay. Let's see. And where's the share screen button? She'll speak. Okay, thank you. Good. Okay. Well, thank you for the invitation. And I'll be talking about the oceanography around Nantucket Shoals, pretty much the circulation around New England, basically. And the outline of the talk is as follows. I'll just give a quick introduction to the regional circulation. Let's see. Is the PowerPoint going to the people on Zoom? Okay, good. Then I'll talk about one of the biggest impacts, which is ocean warming in the region and marine heat waves. And I think relative to the potential prey distributions, the biggest impact is changes in the stratification. And the stratification is getting very, very complex because of an increase in Gulfstream variability. And we'll also talk about a very important physical process, mid-depth salinity maximum intrusions that is very much affecting the stratification and also bringing species from offshore. Then finally, I'd like to talk about something that was very, very disconcerting in 2021. The research is really focused on shelf break processes. And we saw a massive displacement of the shelf break front, more than 50 kilometers offshore that lasted for more than five months. And it drastically affected the ecosystem as I'll talk about in a minute. I work very closely with the commercial fishing industry in southern New England and heard about all sorts of impacts there, but it's something that I'm not sure has been fully appreciated. This is the larger scale circulation. I'll zoom into Nantucket Shoals in the next slide. And this is a figure on the left from Paula Fratt and Tony. And there's really two major current systems that are in the region. The Gulfstream, their Western boundary current, very large, huge transport, important in the global transport of heat there. Another really important current system is the shelf break jet that runs along the edge of the continental shelf. And you can trace that all the way back up to the Labrador Sea. It's a continuous feature there. And on the right-hand side is a climatology that my old student, Chris Linder, put together. That's 100 years worth of data averaged in the cross shelf there. And the front is normally positioned with its foot where it intersects the bottom around the 100 meter ice abat south of New England. And typical temperature differences are four to six degrees centigrade there. And in the lower panel, you can see that the mean salinity field. And by the way, that's in the summertime. That's why you see the thermocline there. But typical salinity differences were 2.0. But as we'll see, that gradient has increased dramatically in the last 20 years. If we zoom into the area around Nantucket Shoals, this is the upstream circulation here. And back here around 2006, 2007, when we had a sparkly brand new Remus 100 autonomous underwater vehicle, we did a bunch of surveys, and actually mapped out the outer Cape Coastal Current that runs down past Chatham there. And then just north of Nantucket Shoals, the flow bifurcates there with one branch heading across the northern edge of George's Bank, and another branch heading down the western portion of the Great South Channel there. And that coastal current has a typical velocity of 20 to 30 centimeters a second there. It's an important pathway. And I can't resist mentioning Chen's work back for the Scopex experiment, the northern edge of Great South Channel there in the late 1980s, I believe, that certainly had a big influence on how I look at the region. And by the way, in the lower right, that photo shows how much we had to learn about launch and recovery of autonomous underwater vehicles. I did regrettably show that figure once to a room full of Navy SEALs, and I was worried that they injured themselves laughing, actually. Okay, so my entire career can basically be encapsulated in this one cartoon. I'm always careful not to delete it there. But shelf break processes are very complex. One of the important things is that there's a persistent upwelling at the shelf break. And that occurs even in the absence of wind forcing. It's really due to bottom boundary layer convergence and typical upwelling rates are between 10 and 20 meters a day there. The upwelling feeds right into the center of the shelf break jet. You can see the ice attacks, the U shaped things near the surface. The jet itself is normally about 50 meters thick there. And the jet is frequently affected by warm core rings, immediately offshore the warm core rings have typical vertical scales of 500 to 1000 meters so they don't get on to the continental shelf. But I'll show you how they are really affecting the stratification recently. I'll be talking a little bit later about the mid depth salinity maximum intrusions that go in center typically at a depth of about 20 meters during the stratified season. And hopefully I convinced can convince you that these processes have been changing quite a bit in terms of frequency and intensity. I won't be talking about it today but we're also getting significant bottom intrusions. That are linked to wind forcing those can go 100 kilometers across the continental shelf there and get all the way up to Block Island south of New England. Okay, two things have really shaped how I look at the recent oceanographic changes in the region. This was the National Science Foundation Ocean observatories initiative pioneer array that was out between 2015 and 2022. That was a process oriented shelf break observatory it involved gliders, seven different mooring sites and and periodic autonomous underwater vehicle surveys there I actually led the team that designed the observatory although it was not a part of any of the operations there, but that has really really shaped how I see the changing nature of the shelf break processes. And as a direct result of the public hearings about the pioneer array and the permitting process I was put into very close contact with the commercial fishing industry. So we were able to convince them that this was a worthwhile endeavor, and we ended up actually forming a shelf research fleet where fishing vessels collect temperature and salinity profile since 2014. As of last week, fishing vessels had collected 818 profiles. This is particularly important during the pandemic when you know those vessels were not out sampling there. One of the most important aspects of this interaction has been twice a year meetings and there's a photograph in the lower right I go in and talk about the oceanographic conditions and then hear from the fishers about what the actual fishing conditions have been. So I get practically up to the minute reports on what's going on with the different catches. Okay, so ocean warming, the time that that it really really hit me right on the face was it was in a cruise in May of 2012 and we were doing some work just north of Cape Hatteras. And there was no temperature gradient across the shelf break front it should have been five degrees C we had a five degree C warm anomaly. And I said something weird is going on here we were looking for a specific fish, a butter fish and blue fish for a program on fish school scattering and they weren't there at all. It was only warm water fish that we were seeing so I got back I had a postdoc who had just arrived at Woods Hall I said, let's look into this. This is a figure he made of the mean temperature anomalies for March of 2012. There, there was a maximum anomaly of six degrees centigrade and as you can see it was warm over the whole area. So I figured out that the jet stream did not bring cold air down in the fall until six weeks later. And so heat loss from the ocean was 50% less than usual that winter, which led directly to six months temperature anomalies in the Gulf of Long Island 2.6 and Chesapeake Baymouth 2.6. And again, when we were out in May it was a five degree C warm anomaly and this was the first time it really hit me in the face. How extensive these warming processes really were. An important topic in recent years, particularly from marine ecology is marine heat waves and briefly that's when you have temperature anomalies that are in the 90th percentile or above that lasts more than five days there. And there was a nice paper by Hendrik Grosse Lindemann, an undergraduate from Germany and his supervisor Sven Jirain at Woods Hall. On the left hand panel shows the warming rates from the optimally interpolated SST fields from NOAA there. I just want to draw your attention to how the continental slope is has the highest warming rates there, along with the axis of the Gulf Stream coming out at Cape Hatteras there. And I'll return to that the changes in that upper slope, quite a bit there. On the left side in the upper panel there is the number of days per year within marine heat wave conditions over the continental shelf south of New England. And that largest value there is actually 2012, but 2016 is the next peak over to the right. This starts in 1982 and you can see from about 1982 to 2000 the marine heat waves are very intermittent, but since about 2010 they've really increased and I just want to point out there was a wonderful paper about two years ago by a Fonso Neto and her advisor Jamie Poulter on how the Labrador seawater is not getting around the tail of the Grand Banks as effectively and that's led to a lot of warming. That's an important paper Neto at all. I think it was 2021. Okay. Now, for the purposes of this committee, I think stratification is very important. And I've been working with the Sea Education Association for many years I was actually the science coordinator for the joint program orientation cruises. So it's fun doing oceanography with a sailing vessel. And so when the students come into the program, they go out for anywhere from seven to nine days. So, we ended up doing a U shaped pattern right at the shelf break south of New England there. And, and this is results over 11 years. And this was a paper that Ben Harden led an SCA scientist on the left hand side is the the means on the right hand side of the panels. There on the left are the standard deviations. I just want to focus on the changes in the density. And so in the two panels on the right hand side, that red area arrow on the top left points to the near surface and over those 11 years. The arrow on the right hand side shows the trend linear trend there. The surface density, potential density is decreasing by point one to kilograms per meter cube per year, which I think it is pretty amazing. And at about 50 meters depth the rate is about half of that and then down at 150 meters it's about an order of magnitude down from the surface but that that is really a very high rate. And then I mentioned the pioneer array earlier that's been really, really important because it's had continuous time series there over seven years and I have a PhD student Lucas Loeber who's working closely with that to look at high wind events. But he made a nice plot for me on the right hand side of the surface density and the density at 69 meters depth within the last several years. And you can see in the red there with the surface potential density in 2020 there it got as low as about 21.4 Sigma theta there. And you can see the enormous spread in that August September time period in terms of the minimum surface density there. There's just enormous inter-annual variability there. And to give some idea of the complexity of the stratification I was out on a cruise in September of 2022. We were looking at those salinity maximum intrusions in the lower left are a number of the vertical profiles of density and on the right hand side is buoyancy frequency and you can see how complex that N squared is right there. And as we'll see next, it's the influence of the offshore forcing that is really making the stratification very complex. So, in thinking about models, and I'll have three different thoughts on challenges there are. Can the models accurately describe the inter-annual variations in the peak stratification because these are large these are one and a half to two Sigma theta there from year to year. Can they capture the seasonal evolution of the stratification and can they produce something like the trend in that decrease in surface density and and again I think the last two years in particular 2021 and 2022. So it's been particularly buoyant there at the surface. Okay, so I've alluded to the Gulf Stream and it's importance on the on the continental shelf and it's something that that really has surprised me over the last, last several years so in 2013 we had a workshop that included members of the commercial fishing industry. This was really a follow on to the multi use conflict negotiations over the pioneer array. And we heard from Fred Matera, who's who's a legendary Rhode Island fisherman. He had a list of 10 observations that the fishing community just wanted to hear about from oceanographers and why it was happening. Number one was more Gulf Stream water on the continental shelf. We didn't heard this from anybody, you know this was the first time we heard it. We took that to heart. And three years later my colleague Magdalena Andrews looking at sea surface height anomaly fields. There are incredible differences between the mid 1990s and 2014 in particular. And you can see in the panels on the left is the envelope of the 25 centimeter anomaly field there and you can see that the Gulf Stream was relatively straight in 1995 but by 2015, you can see that the meanders are much larger amplitude they're getting much closer to the edge of the continental shelf there. And, and so the character has really changed the Gulf Stream is more unstable. I should add that that, I don't know if it's ironically or not but the jet stream has also changed in the same manner and Jennifer Francis's work has been, you know very different in how Arctic warming of the atmosphere is affecting mid latitude weather. So, my colleague of Egypt gong up and I had a master student back in 2017 I knew about Magdalena's work there, and he did a lot of warm core rings using the Jennifer Clark charts and a vision and his group found that the number of warm core rings generated by the Gulf Stream nearly doubled in the year 2000 there it went from any kinetic energy. Okay, now why should we care about that if we're worried about the continental shelf and about pray fields and about right whales. Turns out that there's a process that's been known about since the 1930s bigelow and in his classic book on the Gulf of Maine actually talked about these profiles with a salinity maximum at mid depth there. There was a very nice paper with a climatology of these intrusions in 2003 by my colleague Steve lens, and he came up with a nice classification system to define these intrusions. Now they had not been mapped before so everybody just has scattered profiles with these in them. They're pretty pronounced when you come across them there. And so, at the start of the pandemic in those blissful days before people discovered zoom, I was holed up in my daughter's bedroom and got to go through 619 profiles one by one to characterize these intrusions in the shelf fleet data there. I should add one immediate difference right off the bat was that I had to use a delta s of 0.2 PSU as opposed to lenses 0.1 because there were so many intrusions in the profile with 0.1 I would have gone crazy. So one of the first things that jumped out. This is the location of profiles with the intrusions here. And the sort of blueish green are profiles with intrusions and the black dots are profiles with no intrusions. They are all the way up north of 41 degrees north. They are more than 100 kilometers inshore of the shelf break. And in the lens climatology, they rarely got more than 30 kilometers inshore of the shelf break there. The intrusions are getting all the way to the title mixing front around Nantucket Shoals and I had one particular profile I'll never forget in August of 2018 we had a 10 meter thick layer practically on the beach at Martha's Vineyard of 36.0 PSU there. Unfortunately the ship's engine exploded so I wasn't able to map the feature which is one of my regrets but that's field work. Now a direct consequence for the prey fields as these intrusions come in 10% of the profiles from the shelf fleet from the time period 2015 to 2019 had multiple intrusions and this was the profile with a maximum number of intrusions. There's four of them above that 0.2 threshold there. And I regret that I don't have a screenshot from a Simrad EK80 acoustic backscatter system but I've been out on cruises with the Neil Armstrong where you can see that the zooplankton are in the different layers there. We had multiple layers that was a cruise. Gareth Lawson is chief scientist in June of 2016 there but I believe that when you get these intrusions with the multiple layers there it's definitely affecting the distribution of the prey fields there and again possibly reducing the concentration in an individual layer. And remember I'm a physical oceanographer not a biologist so take what I say with some grain of salt. So now, how are these processes changing in frequency. This was one of the most surprising things. I was looking at the frequency in terms of percentage of profiles that had salinity maximum intrusion in them from the shelf fleet. And it turned out it's about 70% more frequent relative to the lens numbers. They only occur during the stratified season you need to have the thermocline picnic line there for them to come but in August and September it's nearly 50% of the time you're seeing these intrusions and so there is just an incredible interplay between the continental slope water masses, which frequently are affected by rings and the continental shelf. In the past, it was a pretty much a uniform water mass there was one nice sharp peak in the brunt viscilla frequency the profiles were much simpler there, and we are dealing with with very very messy stratification The other nice thing because the fishing vessels are taking profiles every month anywhere between seven and 24 profiles a month went into this. This is the year to year variability right here. In terms of that frequency you can see that September 2019 75% of the profiles actually had intrusions there. In 2015, which was here with very many warm core rings. There there was 60% of the profiles, you know throughout the stratified season had these kind of intrusions there. I should add there was just a paper that appeared about two weeks ago by Adrian Silver who's now a postdoc working with me. So that 72% of the salinity maximum intrusions in Ecomon profiles occurred in proximity to warm core rings there so we don't know the dynamics. We're working on that right now but there's definitely a linkage to warm core rings. And so I think a second challenge challenge is can the hydrodynamic models capture the onshore advection of these offshore water masses and the organisms that are contained with them. And can they produce this kind of complex layering in temperature salinity and and presumably ultimately prey fields that we're seeing in the observations. Okay, now this is for me as a shelf break processes person sort of the horror story. I did three cruises in 2021 in March, May and June and we also put out a long range AUV in September of 2021. This is an image from the state of the ecosystem report right here for the year 2021 in June of 2021 there were eight warm core rings out there. It was just remarkable. We did a cruise on the Neil Armstrong, the last two weeks of June and saw very strong salinity maximum intrusions there, but it wasn't until we did the long range AUV mission in September. This is with Amy Caculia cybotics group that that got me to go and start looking in September a pioneer array data, and this is the salinity field from the near surface seven meters near surface instrument frame. It's a time series of salinity and it should be a straight line just like the left of that plot from April until mid June it should be at 33 this is well insured of the normal position of the front at seven meters depth. And it jumped up as high as 34.5 and stayed that high. We have taken a number of hydrographic sections during that time period. The shelf break front was at about the 50 meter ice bath for the summer there. Looking at the National Data Buoy Center temperature data surface ocean temperature data there. The left is that the temperature, the light blue by the way is 2012 red is 2021. There was a six degree sea warm anomaly in September of 2021 there. And I was just literally astonished at how long the shelf break front states so far and sure. And then just as a schematic this front should be at the edge of the continental shelf and it was more than 50 kilometers on shore of its normal position. Because I'm in close contact with the commercial fishing industry we were hearing, even while we were on the cruise that blue fin tuna which are normally in the Kenyans all summer and move in shore. Very late August first two weeks of September they were off a block island they were insured the 30 meter ice bath all summer it turned out to be a windfall for the charter boat captains because they didn't have to go all the way out to the shelf break they saved a lot of money on fuel there. There were very unusual species count those rays, Cobia that were reported fish that you might think of from the Carolinas or Florida were all over the outer continental shelf there. And perhaps, you know the most worrisome thing for me was that I was hearing from the reports filtered through the commercial fisheries research foundation that that the fishers were reporting. The largest marine mammal concentrations they had ever seen at the 50 meter ice a bath in the summer of 2021. So challenge number three. And the models capture these type of large onshore displacements of the shelf break front, I'll be working on that data and hopefully running a manuscript by the end of the summer on that I think that this this has important implications. Similarly, when the front moves to mid shelf. Does that change the gradients does that change the strength of the upwelling circulation we need to really think about that clearly it was concentrating marine organisms. By the way, there were traffic jams of pleasure craft. There were so many humpback whales out there that everybody with a motorboat was going out to see them because they weren't that far offshore there. So it had all sorts of impacts there. And so I want to point out there's a very significant implication here if the front sit mid shelf, the volume of shelf water coming down that goes into the cold pool must be a lot smaller again this was over five months there. And so, you know I would have expected like a volume transport of cold pool water to be reduced by at least 50% with the front moving that far and sure there. That's your implication these frontal displacements may move real concentrations of marine mammals to mid shelf right in the heart of the, the offshore lease regions there. So, you know, that's why I'm so glad I was given the opportunity to come here and speak because I think this is something that's not people are not generally aware of. And the last two weeks I'm part of a group that's informally called the squid squad, and we have weekly meetings during the fishing season to talk about how oceanographic variability relates to particularly the short fin squid catch. And we were contacted by Chris Orphanides, because he was saying, Oh, there's some interesting right whale distributions going on right now, you know, can you give us some thought about hydrographic sampling from whale map dot org that's a map from May 12 on the left there and the right whale locations. So there's three main areas to or at the shelf break, surprisingly there and one of them is on the, the western side of the great, great south channel it's kind of at the bottom of the the pink triangle there at the top. And in a figure, provided by Grace Jensen at UMass Dartmouth there one of a beach at Gangopadai students there. This is the Jennifer Clark chart blown up and you can see that both of those right whale concentrations are near warm core ranks that are adjacent to the shelf break front and we've had a lot of discussion about the the relation of the over the last month of the right whales and shelf streamers going around to the northeast portion of the rank shelf streamers the record I heard from Gordon wearing it used to be in the protected species branch. He said he saw 58 sperm whales and one shelf streamer there. So the shelf streamers really concentrate marine life and the fishing industry is well aware of that. So, I lean said I should put a few recommendations in so I thought I'd do that. And my major points are I think it's really important to accurately model the stratification, I think to get the prey fields right and particularly the concentration of prey. One of the reasons I took a little bit more time with the salinity maximum intrusions is that ocean processes are changing. They're changing in their magnitude they're changing in their frequency. And that's the scale that the organisms are having to deal with with feeding and behavior. One thing that I'm very sad about is that the pioneer array is outside of the region now and that has been a big loss I get emails I get phone calls what's going on. Two weeks after the pioneer array was pulled out of the water. I got a phone call about monkfish because they did not move offshore at their normal time period at the end of the fall. They moved offshore two months later than usual. And I think it was because a warm core ring pushed the front way and sure like in 2021 but we don't have subsurface observations so you know it's something I will be asking modelers during break times. And then finally, I do hope that that subsurface oceanographic data will be made available from the offshore wind industry and from people doing research I, you know I'm frantic to try and get up to date information because again I have people in the fishing industry asking me and when I had the pioneer array it was just fantastic you know it's like give me 10 minutes and I'll tell you bottom salinity and and I've lost that capability so I'll wrap it up there. Okay, wow thank you. Very comprehensive. Very thought provoking. We have time for a couple of questions for Glenn if anyone. There's one in the. Okay, thank you. Okay, I don't think I'm seeing that's good. You got a Kelly. Yeah, thank you. This is, can you comment on impact of solitons and turtle waves in the region and their impact on stratification and distribution on pray. Fantastic question. I don't think that that has been addressed yet and with these year to year changes in the surface density or obviously there there's big changes a year to year and peak stratification, which would affect the would definitely affect the, the amplitude and internal wave energy carried by the solitons there. That's something that's going to need to be looked at I mean that that directly feeds back into the strength of the stratification. Thank you. Time response to one of the. I'm sorry. Yeah, go ahead. So just literally one sentence from the perspective of ocean winds are south coast JV from the jump has been providing all the data, all the met ocean data that we gather to Naracus. And, you know, and I think you will find across the industry with the possible exception of wind data which has commercial impacts. I think you will find great willingness from the offshore wind industry to supply you with any data that we have particularly regarding that ocean condition. That is great to hear and merely points out my ignorance. Okay, thank you. Richard has a question. Yeah. So can you summarize the period of stratification. So that period sounds like it's persisting later in the fall. Yes, how about in the spring to break down. Absolutely depends on individual synoptic meteorology events. And basically in the fall, it's plus or minus 15 days for the breakdown. And it's I think the average is around mid October when it breaks down, but it can break down as early as mid September, you know, particularly when tropical storms pass through. And I should add that with ocean warming Fiona, I believe last fall was the most energetic tropical storm, you know, heading north that went right over me under the Gulf Stream and retained a lot of its energy even as far north as Nova Scotia. In the spring. So what happens is you'll start to get a one or two degree C thermocline and then if you get strong winds, it'll wipe it out. So the stratification forms, you know, gets wiped away forms again there. And I have a PhD student working on the fall de stratification. I can certainly send you the manuscript on that because he has a year by year breakdown. I think the spring, and it really needs more attention there in terms of the inter-annual variability, but it's very much weather dependent. But is the onset changing earlier? That's a that's a good question. I couldn't give a definitive answer. That's something we can talk about in what's whole sometimes. Okay. Yeah, one last question here. One last question about your finding that the Gulf Stream meanderings are moving further to the west. Yeah, because I attended recently a conference presentation about hurricanes, which are moving further north due to global warming, but they're actually also moving further west. And that was a very unexplained finding. And so I was wondering and curious about your opinion about whether the meandering of the Gulf Stream, whether it's actually continuing or it was just isolated to 2015. No, it's definitely continuing. Oh, no, it has huge implications for storms. And, you know, I really want to compliment the Rutgers group for their work on storms and particularly the evolution of intensity over continental shelves there. Scott Glenn and his group in terms of understanding how important the mixing before the core actually hits. That's really important. But no, these meanders are really large and I was pretty stunned. I think it was two days ago. Grace Jensen sent another Clark chart. There's a gigantic kink in the Gulf Stream right now. The north wall of the Gulf Stream is at 40 degrees north at about the 200 meter ice a bath. So if there was a storm that came through right now, it would maintain all its intensity could even be gaining intensity, right up to the shelf break. And so, you know, another consequence in terms of storms and infrastructure is that as the stratification increases, it's going to take more energy to get that cold pool water off up to de stratify and there was what was in 2011 hurricane Irene was much weaker when it hit hit the coast and then of course when Hurricane Sandy hit everybody was like, I'm not gonna, I'm not gonna, you know, go to the Poconos, you know, and then then that didn't lose any of its intensity crossing the continental shelf, which is why it's so important for the general public to know about seasonal stratification. So it sounds like they could be related. Absolutely. Okay, I think Josh had a stand up we'll do that and I recognize that there are a number of questions from people online, we'll see if we can come back to those later, but go ahead, Josh. Thanks Glenn as usual very relevant talk on the processes really appreciate that. My question is you mentioned briefly the title mix front. Yes, and a lot of the shelf processes that you talked about. And I wonder if you could just comment on how the Nantucket Sholes region that's the focus for this is interfacing with the title activities that are strength or stronger near shore and question and you know just that could be a whole mother talk I'm just not an expert in that and and what I would say is that the warming rates are differential because of the strong title mixing and there's a paper by Lisa on you from our department that talks in in a lot more detail about the spatial distribution here of the warming rates there. But you know one of the key things is the upwelling rates, and it's always so much more complicated in these title mixing fronts there. I don't know about how those upwelling rates are changing there but you know when talking to people and you know I certainly expect to learn more about the shifting spatial distributions of the right wheels there that needs to be looked at in detail how that is changing. We did the outer Cape Coastal current work in 2006 2007 and we recently put in a Sea Grant proposal to get a shelf research fleet at based out of Chatham. We need to know how that those water masses that are short circuiting there through the Great South channel are changing there. And I would say that's something that needs a lot more emphasis is those upstream flows feeding I was just wondering that stratification impact that you talked about the freshening of the surface right if that's going to change the way that title mix front. Oh it absolutely could it absolutely could and I was stunned in August of 2018 to see s max intrusion has gone straight into the title mixing front and then they were mixed away. Thank you. Thank you. We have some questions from committee members and I think we'll go ahead and take those. So, Nick record online would you like you have your hand up. Sure, thanks. And, and thanks Glenn that was a really great talk I learned a lot. I'm wondering one of your recommendations was about understanding changes. I can't remember the exact wording. I'm wondering your thoughts on to what degree that includes being able to predict those changes 510 20 years down the line or do you mean sort of monitoring and understanding changes as they're happening. We need both. And one of the things that that's just really struck me is how little I was able to predict changes we've seen that's kind of embarrassing. We originally came up with the pirate pioneer array concept in 2004 to look at all that fresh water that's going to be flooding out from the continental shelf. What did we find the shelf is getting more salty, and it was because of the Gulf Stream variability. And at that point I'd already been studying, you know that that that system for like 20 years and and I got that completely wrong. Now maybe the flood will come down. We need to understand the changes that are happening now, because I'm probably less confident than a lot of people about our predict ability to predict 510 20 years into the future. So, you know, we really get these processes understand the dynamics understand, you know what's necessary to resolve them and mixing is just a huge part that that underlays a lot of what I've had for my recommendations, the soliton question certainly brings that up. But but really both. Okay, thank you. Um, cows you had a question. Great. I guess my question is, you know, this clearly means. Oh, great talk. I guess my question is that there's clearly been been some kind of regime shift. And, and within the context of recent observations since since the since since you've been making observations of the changes. There's some kind of stability. Yeah, like more reasons to believe in. No, no, that's a really, really important question. And, and so I think there's been been two particular time periods that people talk about so first of all, a VJ identified that 2000 shift into more warm core ranks. And he has a student looking at the wind stress curl right now. That's where Ian Gifford, and it does not appear that there were major changes in the wind stress curl to drive that. And so we were going to have to look at the stability of the Gulf Stream itself. And we want to look at the potential vorticity distribution, just to throw a little jargon in there. But but yes, there's clearly something about the stability characteristics that have changed. That's really important. And I mentioned Jamie Palters work and her student Afonso Neto. There's a tremendous amount of interest at the tail of the bank now because there's been a retro more retroflection of the Labrador current. And so one of the shocking things that we found from the pioneer array, and this was in a paper in 2018 is that the salinity over the upper slope has gone up by 0.7 PSU in the last 20 years there. And so you have much sharper salinity gradients at the edge of the continental shelf, you're transporting much more salt across the continental shelf. It's even getting to the title mixing front, which is, you know, I would not have thought that that was possible before. But I think that 2010 shift is really important because in talking to a lobster man in Rhode Island one time he said 2010 is a year everything went haywire I don't know what's going on, you know, since 2010. So this is why it's so important to hear all the different species about what's going on there to try and get a more comprehensive understanding of these particular regime shifts there. That's an important question though. Thank you. One final question, Doug, please. Yeah, this won't take long. I mean, first of all, thanks Glenn. Thanks a lot. I'm just really, really instructive. One logistical question is, will the presentation be available to us to okay to paw back through because I've heard a lot of I like to pop back through. And the other one was you won't be surprised to my question how much you mentioned Gareth, some of Gareth's work along, alongside of this, how much of a lot of these data collection efforts have had those collection of zooplankton ecology and and even just backscatter data to go along with them. There has been a lot of e k 80 data collected there and andoni lavery has collected a lot of it and in fact during the, the task force ocean New England shelf break acoustics experiment and only in Tim Duda collected a ton of data there. So, I think it's really important it'd be nice if if there was some funding, you know, directly towards the identify identification of the zooplankton and I do want to say I'm going to contact Gareth there about that e k 80 data from the June 16 cruise because it was incredible is the first time I've seen an e k 80 in action. You could actually see at the lowest frequencies fish going back and forth to feed in the different layers. You know, so I was joking about there's the dessert layer there's the appetizer. It's like a trifle. Yes, exactly. Exactly. And that data really needs to be looked at because, you know, we have information about the physical ocean, oceanographic variability at the same time. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. Thanks again, but. Okay, thank you. And thank you for your presentation very helpful. So that's a good that question is a good segue to our next presentation, which will be given by Jeffrey runs who's a professor of oceanography in the school of marine science and the University of Maine and he's at the Darling marine center. Gareth is an expert in all things plankton I think he's worked with processes controlling plankton productivity plankton production impacts on higher trophic levels. And he's been involved with this work for for very many years so he's going to talk to us today about potential changes in ecosystem dynamics. I'm going to reveal from offshore wind turbine in the Nantucket Shoals region. So, Jeff, please. She'll screen. There's no screen. So can you share your screen is that Um, I, I don't know if you can see me I can't. Yeah, if you stab your video maybe because of the bandwidth stab your video and then try sharing it again. So, Jeff, we can run the presentation from our end if that's all right and we can advance at your prompt. So have we lost you Jeff are you still there. Can you hear us Jeff. It looks like we lost him, but I still his video is frozen. Yeah. Yeah. Sure. Good idea. Eileen suggested we take a short break while we get him online. How about we meet back in 10 minutes. So at 1023 Cutting the break short by about a minute and a half here. Anyway, so we have Jeff back and And again, he's going to talk to us about is all plankton and the Gulf of Maine and then Tuckett Shoals. So Jeff, please go ahead. Thank you, Eileen and hello everyone. Sorry for that my computer just completely froze. And I didn't know any alternative but to restart. So I'm I'm going to focus. This presentation on the availability of prey for North Atlantic right whales, which I think is a subject of focus for it for your study. And I'm Going to a little bit of a contrast from Glenn's talk and focus more on the upstream sources. And what my attention has especially been on the Gulf of Maine and the potential role for the Gulf of Maine and and supplying zooplankton to to Nantucket Shoals and just generally what's happening to zooplankton in the region. With respect to the shifting oceanographic conditions that we've been talking about already. And so I will be presenting some of my own data. Or some of the data that I've been participating in and would like to acknowledge all the contributions of my co PIs including Nick record. And technical staff and students and collecting and analyzing these data and I'm also going to provide some review of of studies. In the region regarding zooplankton. And just acknowledging also the funding sources, one of which recently, it has been very critical and it's been very critical and it's been very critical and it's been very critical and it's been very critical. And critical and sustaining time series that I've been involved in which is pure ocean energy management. And so, I'm Glenn said that he's a physical oceanographer and not a biologist and I'm going to say I'm a biologist and not a physical oceanographer so I'm going to just provide my, my perspective of the physical conditions and especially the general circulation in the coastal Northwest Atlantic. And my view has I have a Canadian perspective on that since I worked in Canada for many years with DFO is that the Gulf of St. Lawrence and the Gulf of Maine. And I'm considered as a large scale at that couple that vector vesturine system driven by the huge discharge from the St Lawrence River, which itself drives a buoyancy current that flows through the Gulf of St Lawrence and down the Scotian shelf into the Gulf of Maine. And that I want to point out right away that the Gulf of St Lawrence is a huge source of Calanus species, Calanus fin marchicus other species but for the Gulf of Maine was relevant as Calanus fin marchicus. And so there's there are very large concentrations of Calanus fin marchicus and high production in the Gulf of St Lawrence. And there's also, as you see there's a laboratory current. There's a subsurface, Subwater Labrador subsurface water that flows down the shelf break and also can enter into the Gulf of Maine through the Northeast channel. And in addition, there's warm slope water that's adjacent to the shelf breaking between the Gulf of Maine and the Gulf Stream. And that can also enter into the into the Gulf of Maine through the Northeast channel. And so this this water that enters in flows down, especially in the main coastal current eastern and western main coastal current down past Cape Cod and some of it goes around Georgia's bank and some of it. And this is the residual circulation patterns goes past the south of Monmouth veneered along the shelf and out. And there's also a component that flows along the shelf break. So this this is the kind of general circulation pattern. And since 2010, as we just talked, we just been talking about there's been evidence for a shift in the in the Gulf Stream of the Gulf Stream, greater transport of warm salt, warm slope water into the Gulf of Maine higher salinities in the Gulf of Maine, higher temperatures. And even the possibility recently of Gulf Stream water modified Gulf Stream water flowing into the Gulf of Maine. Dave Townsend at the University of Maine has is publishing a review of the sources of water into the Gulf of Maine, which is coming out in progress in oceanography in July. And I think that's for me a very insightful review about what's going on in the Gulf of Maine sources of water. So just what's happening in the Gulf of Maine can be seen in the surface temperatures of the Gulf of Maine Research Institute website. They have a great summary of warming trends in the Gulf of Maine and in this figure here we see the time on the years on the y axis and months on the x axis and since 2010. The temperature anomalies have been especially positive, just indicating again the, the effect that the, that that is something important that happened around this time 2010. And that warming occurred not only at the surface, the surface temperatures on the left here policy surface temperatures. This is again from the Gulf of Maine website and also from nowhere. It's fishery state of the ecosystem report that the Gulf of Maine bottom temperatures have also been increasing, especially since 2010 so it's not just the warming in the Gulf of Maine. My perspective is not just a heat exchange between the air and the, and the ocean it's also shifting water mass transport and warmer water from different masses coming into the Gulf of Maine. So I want to talk about especially the observing programs for observing zooplankton responses to oceanographic conditions. And so I'll do that first, and then I'd like to just briefly summarize recent decadal trends in ocean graphic condition in the abundance of zooplankton in the Gulf of Maine with a focus on colonists from North Atlantic states and other prey pseudo colonists and some properties for North Atlantic right whales. And then at the end, I'm, I pose some questions and implications for Nantucket shoals zooplankton and wind turbine impacts so I'm providing. Maybe there's an opportunity here for a little bit of a gayly and dialectic synthesis between a Glenn's focus on on the shelf break processes and the transport of shelf break water into the Nantucket shoals. And the focus on this talk here is especially the Gulf of Maine and the Gulf of Maine is a source of supply of zooplankton to to Southern New England. So the first observing program in the Gulf of Maine that's been going on since 1960 is the continuous plankton recorder CPR. It's an apparatus that is told behind merchant vessels, tiny opening 1.3 centimeter squared opening that, that allows water in flows to pass a mesh that mesh winds up in formaldehyde and is analyzed by plankton experts for for the Gulf of Maine, those experts are located in a lab in Poland. And it's, it's co run between Noah and the Sir Alistair Hardy Foundation, and the line shown here runs from Nova Scotia to the Western Gulf of Maine, and that's been going since 1961. Another zooplankton observing program that's been going on since 1977 is of course the NOAA ECOMON MARMAP surveys and this is an example of the stations that are that that may happen it's a stratified random design. So the stations might vary each year, told with bongo nets of 333 mesh and from two to six surveys a year I think it's more on the lower end now and then has in the past and numbers of surveys. And finally, we have more recently that the near cruise which operates the integrated Sentinel monitoring network, ISMN. And it collects monthly, normally monthly it's now in the summer at CMPS at the which is the coastal main time series station located about five, five miles off the Damer Scott estuary at the western margin of the main coastal current. So a station that's sampled from University of New Hampshire from Portsmouth at the Wilkinson in Wilkinson Basin the Northwest tip, called the Wilkinson Basin time series station. And these product, the protocols the primary zooplankton collection is with a vertical 0.75 meter ring net toad from the bottom to the surface 200 micron mesh net. And it, the other sampling including CTD chlorophyll phytoplankton taxonomy that the protocols are similar to the Atlantic zone monitoring program, which was established in 1999 in the maritime region. You can see they there are some time series stations at Prince five and they are funding station to have Halifax. There are others in the Gulf of St. Lawrence. I actually was involved when I was up working fisheries and oceans in setting up the AZMP. And it was now has now been going on for over for 20 years. And so, I'm providing references as we go to, like there's the recent report to that we've made for bone about the, the ISMN stations fix stations in the, in the Gulf of Maine, the AZMB there's a link to reports of the data that are currently at the, as part of the AZMP. And then I also put a link to our pretty neat rap video on YouTube about called cruise cruise baby about sampling at these stations. So the focus, focus especially on the subarctic planktonic copepod Kalinsfin Marchicus, the primary pray for the North Atlantic right whale. The range of Kalinsfin Marchicus you see that the Southern New England is is pretty much thought to be at the southern edge of the viable populations that be producing populations of southern margin of the subarctic distribution that goes all the way up into Norway and into the Barents Sea. Kalinsfin Marchicus is especially and remarkably abundant in the North Atlantic ocean, and especially in the Gulf of Maine, there's something about the Gulf of Maine historically that has nurtured very large concentrations of Kalinsfin Marchicus is North Atlantic right whales go there. And so there's and if you look at the to the right here these plots of the proportion of copepod biomass and copepods make up most of the catch of Mesozo Plankton in a in these net toes 200 micron vertically integrated net toes. And copepods make up more than typically more than 80% of the abundance of plankton coppities caught and of the planktonic copepods Kalins species, whether it's in Canadian on shelf waters or there's several species, including Kalins hyperboreus arctic species in the Gulf of Maine it's primarily or almost all Kalinsfin Marchicus in Eve in all these waters. In the deeper waters, say greater than 100 meters Kalins species make up more than 70, between 70 and 90% of the biomass of the Mesozo Plankton of the Mesozo Plankton copepods. So hugely important to the foundation species to the whole functioning of the subarctic ecosystems in in in this region. So just some results from the NOAA Ecomon surveys, a study by Grieve et al, supported by NOAA 2000 that was published in 2017 so you see from the Ecomon averages different regions that they divided up the survey from the Gulf of Maine, the Mesozo Plankton, Southern New England, and the Mid-Atlantic Bight. You can see the mean average annual abundances of Kalinsfin Marchicus fluctuate by an order of magnitude have fluctuated over the past 30 years or so. The abundances average abundances in in the Gulf of Maine are say three to five times higher than what you might find in Southern New England, which is this orange line here. Just to give you a sense of the variability that can occur in abundances. Now I'm going to focus, especially on the period since more recent period since about 2000 at coming up. The Rubauji and his co-authors I was involved in this study looked at the seasonal patterns and coherence of Kalinsfin Marchicus in the Gulf of Maine and it's important that annual abundances. It's important to understand that the drivers of the population abundance of Kalinsfin have a strong sub annual seasonal component. For example, if you look at the left panel here in spring, the anomalies of Kalinsfin abundance across the NOAA Ecomon surveys for Wilkinson Basin, Jordan Basin, and George's Basin, three deep basins in the Gulf of Maine, there really is no trend in the spring abundance of Kalinsfin Marchicus. And they're fairly coherent among the three basins, whereas in the fall the coherence breaks down, especially between George's Basin and the other basins. And we see that since 2010, especially you can kind of mark it off around there, there has been a dramatic decline and these are log scale anomalies. So there's been a dramatic decline in these basins observed in the NOAA data. And so this is a decline, especially in the eastern Gulf of Maine has been correlated with the shift in foraging habitat of the North Atlantic right whale. Nick record led a study published in 2019 in Oceanography where taking NOAA data that was available for eastern Gulf of Maine before and after 2010. Since 2000, since say the year 2005. I mean that when there was in Jordan Basin when Kalinsfin Marchicus abundance Jordan Basin in the eastern Gulf of Maine when Kalinsfin Marchicus abundance was say greater than 40,000 per square meter. Lot, there were a lot of right whale sightings in the Bay of Fundy in the in the late summer fall. Whereas when their Kalinsfin Marchicus was not there, especially after 2010, the data that was available. Neither were the right whales and these abundances correlated with the increases in in temperature and correlated with this change in shifting water masses coming into the Gulf of Maine. And so Aaron's paper in 2021. They they looked at the CPR data that continues plankton recorder data. And also found that coherence with or with with what the ECOM on data is finding a lower Kalinsfin Marchicus abundances in the eastern Gulf of Maine. And that also correlated with the North Atlantic right well calving index, and in in this oceanography paper they were explicitly discussing kind of a regime shift that that occurred that centered around 2010. So it's important. I didn't mention that it's in. Well, I'll say it now it's important that the source. I consider that the important source of countless in March is coming into the Gulf of Maine is not from the warm slope waters or the slope sea that's just east of Northeast Channel, it is from the Nova Scotia current and Gulf of St Lawrence, and also, as contributions from laboratories slope water that are contributing countless in March this into the Gulf of Maine. So, I guess, here it is here so here you see the what I what I see is the primary source of Kalinsfin March is actually coming from the Scotian shelf in in this colder and fresher water into the eastern Gulf of Maine. And so we just saw that in the eastern Gulf of Maine Kalinsfin Marchicus abundances lower than since 2010. And we're off the question also is now what what's happening to Kalins in the western Gulf of Maine and which is as we see the residual circulation flows past Cape Cod and into southern New England. And we've been starting that especially Rubao G and others, I was involved in the study. Developed this scent idea of the importance role of that the main coastal current plays where it picks up individuals that are in the eastern Gulf of Maine Kalins and the main coastal current has food supply throughout the summer the temperatures for Kalinsfin Marchicus are just optimal in the main coastal current, and it grows and reproduces there and and by the time it gets to western Gulf of Maine, and say Wilkinson Basin, they've developed to the overwintering diapause stage and find this refuge in Wilkinson Basin to overwinter. And so from there in the spring, the animals come out of diapause and then reproduce, and then our source of of of Kalins to the western Gulf of Maine and southern New England. So that's there. It's important to emphasize that there's seasonality of primary drivers controlling abundance of Kalins. First is effective supply. And that's from external supply and the evidence for the regime shift in 2010 affects supply so less of the Kalins which cold fresh water from the Scotian shelf, more warm slope water entering in and affecting concentrations in the eastern Gulf of Maine and then there's effective supply in the main coastal current of affecting of abundances in the in the late summer in the western Gulf of Maine. And then there's very important local production, especially in the main coastal current and in waters just adjacent to the main coastal current where the fight up by the regime and temperature affect lipid accumulation and timing of diapause and reproduction. And finally predation, Peter we'd be just published a paper last year with his co authors, emphasizing that the predation may have an important role, and especially with higher temperatures and affecting abundances and this is especially as the predator field develops over the season. I see them as this credit predation components being especially important at the end of the active season in late summer and fall. We want to talk now about what's happened to countless in March this in the western Gulf of Maine based on our on the nearer because I SMN time series stations and just recalling everyone recalling the life cycle of a man starts out. The neg develops through six Nopla stages, then six co-pepidate stages. And so the stages that we're focused on the stages that North Atlantic right whales are especially interested in other lipid rich stages, especially stage C five and adults and stage C four. The ECOM on we're focusing especially on stage C three through through adult female here. This is what these are the stages that are primarily captured by the bongo toes of the Noah ECOM on survey. And we've also we count all all co-pepidate stages for the nearer coups stations but we're just going to focus on the state abundance of stages C three through C six as these these are probably the stages that North Atlantic right whales are especially interested in. And so here is a phrenology that we've prepared about G is has been involved in this especially and it's and it's the on the y axis is the y axis the abundance in a log scale normalized to individuals per meter cubed. The dark the time of year the year day is on the X axis. And so what we have here are the all these light gray points in the background are the ECOM on data from Wilkinson Basin. So this is the Wilkinson Basin time series station. The colored points are the observations from these fixed stations that just one station from the Wilkinson Basin station in northwest corner. And these vertically integrated toes. And just to see how they map on to the ECOM on data and we think it does a pretty pretty good job of of reflecting concentrations and you see that there's a there is an annual cycle where the abundances of Calanus are lowest in, say, February, March, and what in which time they're mostly in either stage C five or females ready to be produced. Then there's the parents of a lot more zooplankton a lot more phytoplankton food and spring vernal increase in the abundance of Calanus and March guess, especially younger stages. And then as they develop into the diapositing stage C five you can see the decline that occurs over over the summer and late fall. So, I point out especially that our time series stations at Wilkinson Basin started in 2005. And we see these red points here which is 2020 21. They're considerably lower than the than the longtime average, the average of the ECOM on data is this black line here. And with the twice and half the abundances in this dotted lines from that's from the ECOM on data. And so the woke the recent 2021 Calanus abundances are considerably lower than the long time than the historical average. It's plotted out since 2005 for that coastal main time series station and often in the western margin of the main coastal current in Wilkinson Basin in late summer, and in Wilkinson Basin in late fall and winter. And we can see declines occurring in all three places we believe that the CMTS main coastal current is a source of supply for Wilkinson Basin in later in the summer. And we can see where they where they are hard, the Wilkinson Basin harbors these stages that are developing in the main coastal current. And we can see that the abundance levels comparing 2008 to 2021 are somewhere between 15 and 40% of what they were. You know, back in before 2010. The spring it's a different story the spring again is as we see there's a decoupling, and even though there are fewer females say that come out of diapause in February March, if the conditions are right. They're so reproductive you can produce so many eggs per female say up to 60 eggs per female per day that you fewer females can still replenish the population so we don't see really any any trend. Over the long term in spring Calanus abundance. And so, so you know this this even though there are fewer females here there's, there's a lot of production that happens during the spring period. And we believe that this is in part due to it's changing more earlier availability of phytoplankton. This is chlorophyll biomass before 2010 and after 2010 at Wilkinson Basin, and, and even concentrations between 0.5 and one milligram per liter. In the period between, say in February March, when females may be coming out of diapause early because the temperatures warmer are encountering higher flight of food availability and being able to reproduce earlier and then and offset the lower concentrations that we see being supplied to Wilkinson Basin. So, also looking at other copepods in the zooplankton community before and after 2010. The red is significant increases in the in in abundance. These are ranked a court from smallest micro Calanus to largest in Calanus is up there somewhere can't see it with as far in a way. There we go. So, Harry Akita is a predator on on the copepods since the largest and then Calanus is sort of like the second largest copepod in the system. And what is important is from this point of view as well. First is Oetona has increased greatly in the six year period since 2010. And so has pseudo Calanus and Centropagies. Two of the species that are also considered as common prey for, especially when Calanus is not available for North Atlantic right wheels. So, let's see if I can shift this. So coming now to Nantucket Shoals and so here's, again, the perspective is upstream sources into Nantucket Shoals. And I've from based on the look at the circulation patterns. I'm not really know much about zooplankton on on Nantucket Shoals. What what's there and what what observing programs apart from the NOAA stations that are there they are common stations that are sampled there. Based on the circulation pattern, it seems like that the Gulf of Maine, the main coastal current Wilkinson Basin, especially in the spring. It's an important source of supply to zooplankton zooplankton to Nantucket Shoals. And also Nantucket Shoals harbors the highest abundance of pseudo Calanus and Centropagies. In the Gulf of Maine and Fall and Winter where I believe that's where North where the North Atlantic right wheels are especially observed is in Fall and Winter. Since 2010 the abundance is a pseudo Calanus and see Centropagies typical that we as we just saw have increased in the Western Gulf of Maine. That's likely due to the increased temperature and higher chlorophyll concentrations and Fall and Winter that I pointed out. I'd like to say that the late Lippard Ridge stage of the Calanus and Martyrus in the Gulf of Maine we do not find them. They're not common in and are not in great abundance at depth shallower than 75 years due to their high visibility to visual predators. So just to back up some of these. I would like to point out Rubau Gees study in 2009 where he he actually modeled a couple of physical biological model of Centropagies and pseudo Calanus abundance. The Myrmat climatology from 1977 2006 for the different winter spring summer and autumn periods is here on the top panel and the model results on the bottom panel. And I just point out in winter and spring especially how warmer temperatures there how pseudo Calanus and Centropagies are the highest abundances in this period are especially in that Southern New England area. Likewise for Centropagies. So the Southern New England area. In the climatology and the modeling. That's where you find highest abundances and so I mean, thinking about it maybe North Atlantic North Atlantic right well as must know that as well. But also in Cape Cod Bay, because they were there where they go so these the Southern New England Western Gulf of Maine Southern. High concentrations of pseudo Calanus and Centropagies before the Calanus and Marcus late lipid rich stages come online. And just backing up the Calanus and Marcus this is our observations of abundance of Calanus and Marcus late stages in the Gulf of Maine, where we don't really see them until bottom depth gets to about 100 meters of 75 to 100 meters. And then finally then the questions that I might pose having not much knowledge about impacts of offshore wind farms on on zooplankton. And so I've given an overview more of the potential effect of the role of infection, especially in local production and predation. In in upstream supply to North Nantucket Shoals but really the questions for that. They're a finer scale that I'm not really have a great understanding of is whether or not they're a fine scale patches and aggregations of these three. Is it a lone prey species for North Atlantic right whale on Nantucket Shoals, or does mixing on the shoals prevent aggregations from occurring these are questions that I just don't know and and Glenn it's just listening to his talk and I think it looks like for fine scale aggregations to occur that are the scale that are of interest to plankton feeding whales. And would offshore wind turbine significantly disrupt these aggregations if they occur. And our North Atlantic right whales in Nantucket Shoals feeding on other prey besides talents pseudo counts and centropages. And another question would be, would a field of offshore wind turbines by altering turbulence affect the vertical distribution of phytoplankton micro so plankton and therefore affect the feeding rates of suspension feeding so plankton. And, you know, if there aren't patches of perhaps there are patches of in the vertical of prey that allow for higher feeding rates and therefore say growth and reproduction and so plankton copepods, especially that are omnivorous. And I would note that if that does occur that because of the effective patterns I wouldn't think that that would be an impact on population abundance is there that that that would be a downstream effect, and it really depends on the footprint of these any impacts on mixing processes of the offshore farms, whether or not that would have any influence at all in the population dynamics of the so plankton. And finally as the fifth one listening to Glenn. I'm wondering now about the relative roles of shelf break processes and transport from the shelf break on to Nantucket Shoals versus the substream sources and what are those relative roles I don't have any idea about that but he's kind of I've kind of see now that there's an important contribution, possibly of both sources of supply. Hey, I hope you've heard all that. Yes, we did. Thank you. Do we have questions for for Jeff. Yes, Glenn, go ahead. Very informative talk Jeff. A media question is, you mentioned the importance of predator fields. And one thing I hear about is longfin squid continually heading further north and I know that they are very voracious feeders. Do they feed on Calanus. The other one that I've heard quite a bit of talk about is black sea bass also heading further north. Right. Yes, and I, to my knowledge, I don't think any of them are directly feeding on on on count the measles O plankton, possibly you fovs it's, but the predators thinking about especially for Calanus species are species are you fovs is especially Megan Tiffany's Megan Tiffany's Norvegica, which is a predator on cobalt pods and it's very abundant in the main coastal current and in the Gulf of Maine, but we don't have, we don't catch it in our nets. It's one of the under known species, or under sampled species. It's maybe better sampled by acoustics. And another important predator are gelatinous so plankton jellyfish. And Peter we be paper emphasize the possibility of jellyfish predation being especially important in some years. And then there's also herring and sand lance that are forage fish are important predators of the Calanus. And I don't know if there was a second part to your question Glenn but I'm curious about the predators that's all. Thanks. So adult fish don't feed on Calanus but a lot of the juvenile life say is do cod for example. Is that fish under 40 centimeters or so. Right. Yes. Yeah and the forage fish even the adult herring herring and sand lance. Yes please. Thank you for that talk I'm I'm coming from a physical oceanographic perspective so spare me some benefit. You mentioned the different stages of the the life cycle, and I'm wondering if there's any evidence of different stages being more or less dependent on physical processes like is there a. I'm assuming the younger stages are more dependent on transport processes but when we think about stratification and how it might affect aggregation is that limited to the adults is it limited to some of the other stages that you mentioned. So an advection applies across the board, all stages. The as the as the these the copepods let's say Calanus develops the older stages starting say stage C3 and especially above stage C5 and females undergo vertical migration so they have more control of their, their vertical distribution, or they exert more control of their distribution and that especially is the their migration their diapods migration in the fall where they, the stage C5 will migrate and stay deep in waters. In the slope waters it's 400 greater than 400 meters in the Wilkinson Basin which is only 250 270 meters deep their mode vertical distribution of the overwintering stages. These these late adult state late pre adult stages is around 150 meters 120 to 100 say 200 meters. It's difficult to survive. Nevertheless, in Wilkinson Basin at those steps. So the younger stages and not the stages and the competitive stages are especially subject to surface surface transport. Say, Thank you Richard you have a question. A comment to collaborate on something Jeff had said Jeff. Good speculation on what might be in the Nantucket shows because there has been a little bit of analysis done by the Northeast Center for 2020 through 2022 from their cruises, and basically Centropagies is the most common zooplankton on the Nantucket shows and so countless and countless are about equal piece of those surveys. So good speculation. And, and one thing we're noticing is an expansion of Centropagies expansion of its seasonal abundance, not just in the fall but more in the summer and into the spring, and how much higher abundance. Centropagies is one of those species I think that's taking that's really taking advantage of the warmer temperatures. Is Centropagies as energy rich as countless. No, I sort of see Centropagies, like a traitor Joe's burrito, compared to say salmon, if for a human. If that if that makes any sense, anyone's ever bought traitor Joe's burritos you disappointed. You're setting us up for launch Jeff okay. Yeah, one question. Yeah. Hi, this is Emily Hildreth from BOM. I am a lawyer by training so that's my decline disclaimer that you should probably meet me, but I was just thinking and I am going to use my hands so one of the things I noticed that you said and in all the maps I've seen so far today, everything is pretty much going north south. The really large concentration of wind farms in the Rhode Island mass area is south of the shoals. So when you're talking about oceanographic effects, it would be that downstream zone where you would see most of those effects and I know we've looked at wind roses to and I think at least more than half it's the same thing it's going in that direction. And I think you acknowledge that some but it was like this sort of tiny note. And I just found that like really interesting and really notable so I guess it's not a question but I'm hoping you can correct me if I'm just like crazy and a lawyer trying to be in a science meeting. I'll refer to Glenn on on this but the forces that are driving the, the north to south circulation are not not primarily wind driven there. They're there have to do with fresh water input and density gradients in the water. And that's about which way the wind is going. I don't know if that's kind of. Jeff, that's definitely correct. And just just to add a little bit more that is absolutely certainly true that it's mostly going north to south or west to south of New England there. And as Jeff said that all the freshwater input makes the water on the continental shelf, less, less dense than offshore and that that density gradient is what drives the, the shelf break jet there, but there's also. And I hate to use a bit of gar jargon but on a long shelf pressure gradient that drives the depth average component to the flow, and the two components are about equal to each other. And since you're a lawyer, this came up in a recent murder case. Have to throw that in there. We're actually somebody. They were fishing boat and their mother went down with the boat and they were found 80 kilometers east of where they said the boat went down. And that was shown to be an error there. So it is, it's actually important legally too. Okay, thank you. All right. Yes, please go ahead. This is fantastic observation all the detail, but most of the transport we have seen that has been say residual transports, all the maps you have shown, but it's strongly title so isn't there a strong say dispersive transport due to the tides. Sometimes that can be even bigger than the residual transport so that, you know, types transports down and go back but still they push a lot of along the gradients. And I chose more about this than I do, but as you go further east and into the Gulf of Maine the tides are very important and particularly on the north flank of Georgia's bank you get very strong residual title currents there. What's interesting is as you get closer to Hudson Canyon that's a minimum in the M2 semi diurnal tide there. And that was one of the reasons actually the pioneer array location was chosen, so that we could look at the buoyancy driven flows in isolation there. So generally the further west you get the less the title influences. You know, in the New England shock region most of the two secretion important ones will come from Georgia's bank. Georgia bank had a secretion go down. Another one just from Cape Cove secretion this most like a residual current also buoyancy driving current, but the problem is now when the warming, you know, saw some Georgia bank a front to become strongly because like a glance and I know like a strong wind and they're in so southern Georgia bank, you know, stratification becomes strongly. That's why they get intense fire, southern wall floor to go down. So another thing is no coming change also making a Jordan basing, like like Wiccanson basing like Jeff managing is the clockwise circulation is identified the Cape Cove currents that can be can be intensified. So water come from government region or upstream or also Georgia bank region. But you know, so, you know, LTR SF LTR, a long time to transfer, you know, started from the short region from Cape Cove region, the start of their gun down. They had a chance they only had a five year data. So every month they get a survey. So they get a most of the five years or the data of their zooplankton you train data they get another renewed contract for the next five year. They shouldn't have a lot of zooplank data there. Yeah, I forgot to mention LTR that they have that and Glenn you know about that and they have the Martha's from your observatory and stations there. I'm my senses that they're especially emphasizing the phytoplankton field with the remote sense with the autonomous or imaging systems that they have. I'm not aware. Maybe you can correct me that about zooplankton data being collected. Yeah, Jeff, you're you're right and they do focus a phytoplankton but they do have a micro zooplankton some others open the data. You know, yeah. Yeah. Okay, thank you. Any other comments. Oh, sorry, need to look. More so that I guess this a question for Richard and Aaron and Jeff. Richard you started to talk a little bit about it with the different species and their energy value to the population. Could you dig into a little bit more we've talked about some of the aggregations the one that has been seen in May. And where there was aggregations off of New York by that one of our projects found off in New Jersey in recent years and then of course Nantucket Sholes Cape Cod Bay and that the energy value to individuals and what species are present. That's a big question maybe it's too big to answer here but I would be interested to hear what folks think about that or have to say about that. Go ahead. Yeah. I was going to say at least those concentrations that were to the west of Nantucket Sholes and the ones that are on Nantucket Sholes now. There's not much sampling going on so it's a little hard to tell what they're actually might be feeding on. I don't have the caloric values off the top of my head. I'll just say that Calanus late stages are much bigger than Centropagies or pseudo Calanus and their lipid content energy rich wax esters is way much higher than Centropagies or pseudo Calanus. So there is caloric content in Centropagies and pseudo Calanus, pseudo Calanus does have a small lipid storage. But there's no question that as North Atlantic right wells would tell you that Calanus and Marchakas is the desired prey for energy content. And a lot of this also depends on the density of the prey aggregation. So you can have pseudo Calanus out there and really high densities which could balance for low density Calanus but it's also not known. I'll add that Calanus and Marchakas is probably the highest energy content per these different species that we're looking at. And so that would have probably the biggest effect on right whale reproductive success. But right wheels are feeding on these other guys Centropagies pseudo Calanus. My guess is when dense aggregations of Calanus and Marchakas are not available. So when we're thinking about the effects of prey, you know on right wheel demography through the mechanism of reproduction, maybe looking at Calanus and Marchakas is the most important. But we're also thinking about the effects of prey on right wheel distribution. And so then the abundances of these smaller bugs really can come into play. And another addition to that is that, you know, we did a lot of survey effort in Southern New England over the last 20 plus years. And I went up that up to 1997 we started that we did not see concentrations of large whales, either humpbacks or fin whales, not speak of right whales like we're seeing now. So in the last decade, something has fundamentally changed in those areas. And there's unfortunately this is not an area where that's open today has ever really worked up. Yeah. One thought that I forgot to put in my talk are the hotspots getting hotter. And one of the processes that we've been thinking about a lot are the streamers around the warm core rings there. And, you know, just in talking with the local fishing community there they're seeing unbelievable concentrations to the northeast of warm core ranks and I've had a paper published a month ago showing that most of the short fin squid the highest catches are to the northeast of a warm core ring. That's right where the shelf break jet deflects off shore right there. And one of my former PhD students Jacob Forsythe estimated that the upwelling rates to the northeast of a warm core ring can be up to 100 meters a day in these shelf streamers there. So that's a full order of magnitude larger than is normally in the shelf break front there. So that, you know, I'm wondering if that's leading to some of this increased number of concentrations. It could very well that this there's some concentrations that we're seeing this winter spring that for me seem really unusual. We would see groups of right whales together but not a lot of other species with them. But now we're seeing these large aggregations of right whales humpback fin says and then small stations there at the same time. So there's something different is happening, and it could be something like that with overlaying that the sightings with what you've got on warm core rings would be really useful. And he has some of it but we have this more data now. Okay, it's a very interesting discussion and we'll come back to it but in the interest of time I think we'll go on if people need to take a break then. One more comment for the for the panel that might be important since I thought of it while Glenn was talking in, which is something in the marmap data. I've seen that that there is in springtime there's an important countless concentration right along the shelf break south in southern New England. And if there are incursions that that might be an important other source of countless than the upstream is is this springtime abundance of countless remarks along the shelf break being an intruding into the North Nantucket Sholes. Okay, thank you. And I'm sure we'll be coming back to this topic as we go forward here. We need a break get out you can get up and move but I think in the interest of time we're going to go ahead and move on to the next part of the agenda here. These are from European colleagues and it's getting late in their day. So, we'll go ahead and talk let them make their presentation and we have a series of three presentations that will give us a European perspective on offshore wind turbine effects on hydrodynamics and ecosystem changes. I'm not sure of the order in which we'll go here but we have gone from Ute Dowell and Arianna Zampolo, making the presentation so please go ahead. And I'm not sure, like I said who will be going first. Okay, you're first. All right, and, and Goren is at the University of Gothenburg and Scotland for Sweden's please. Okay, can you hear me and see my screen. Yes, looks good. Thank you. Okay, let's see. Okay, so I will talk about offshore wind farms and how they possibly can impact ocean dynamics and biochemistry. And my name is Jaram Bröström, as you must have gotten in Sweden. So there's a lot of plants for offshore wind farms around the world, especially in Europe. So these green ones they are, I guess is the existing ones. So this is in the development phase and these are planned, so a lot of new in Sweden, I'm here by the way Gothenburg, and this dark blue is what is planned in the long term so this is something that is going to quite big in the future and very, very big wind farms. We need to start to think how to look on how these wind farms impact on the ocean. And also, you need to see that this is probably important for future energy mix. There's also some plants in the US, because I guess when techie shows his systems. So when you place wind farms, you have mono pines, when you have quite shallow water, then you go to jackets when you're a bit deeper, then you go to different floating ones, when you get deeper, and also these becomes bigger. You don't have kites as you're in the North Sea, as we will talk about, then you have a quite mixed layer that you start to get a certification and you get a surface layer. But for instance in the Baltic Sea, you don't have kites, so the many areas you don't have strong kites. Of course the fundaments by themselves will create some mixing. If you have a flow, you have a structure here, you will create some curls, swirls around that will go downstream. So if you have a pandemic area, you will have a flow around it and you will create these wakes that will go around. This is mixing. I'm not sure if I don't want to talk about it. But if you put Reynolds number against dental number, ocean wind from turbines is in an area where you create wakes and a lot of mixing. And I think Öte will talk more about this. So I'll leave it. What I will talk about. This is the work I did in 2008. So this is the wind wake and how it possibly can impact on the ocean dynamics. So if you have a wind blowing in this direction, then if the wind changes slowly, you will have a strong air transport on the stop pod. But behind the wind form, you will have a wind wake, but you have lower wind speeds. So the air transport will be weaker. So it weaker there. So it's strong, weak, weak and strong. So this implies that you have a convergence or a downward in this area. And you have a divergence in the upper water or upward in this area. And wind fronts probably have a 20% reduction in wind speeds. So there is a 40% reduction in the wind stress. So the wind stress is proportional to the wind speed squared roughly. So this is from a model experiment with MIT UCM model. So here I have the wind direction in that direction. And this is the change in term plan position. After one day, if you have a wind stress that is 0.05 Newton per square meter, this is roughly five meters per second wind. And you will get an aquilling that is about one meter. And downwelling that's about one meter. After five days you get an aquilling that is about two meters and a downwelling that is about two meters. And you can see that this is the wind forming red. So these things, aquilling patterns and downwelling patterns and downwelling patterns. They are much, much larger than the wind form itself. And on the stratified ocean is too much extent they're governed by the internal rospir radius or internal radius of deformation. So if you have a double wind, after one day, you see that the signal is actually about doubled, but after five days, the signal is not so big difference between a weak wind and a strong wind. So it's a bit larger. It's a bit more upland, but it's not doubled in size. So it's a bit complex. So this is just showing the dipole. Let's just say that. Sorry, I forgot that you can see that it's moves to the right. That is the eggman transport, but it also moves up wind. So what is that. So this is a case when you have barotropic. So you have a wind from about there. This is the vorticity that you see, then you can see you can create some positive and positive and negative vorticity. This is a smoke ring, just a lot bigger. So this is a self-advecting because of non-linearity between the vorticity cells. And here is a new, there's a new wind after 240 hours. So you can again see these vorticity cells, and you have this self-advection pattern in this region. And ours still have this from the last wind event. This is periodic, and here is that new one that's gone through the boundary zone. So you will create a lot of vorticity. This is on a barotropic case. For a baroclinic case, it's a bit more complicated. So this is simulations, sorry, the wind direction in this direction. I didn't see that until late. So anyway, here you could create these dipoles. You get a downwelling and you get upwelling. This affects a little bit in this direction. So you have this self-advection of the dipole system. It also creates a big area of downwelling and upwelling. Now if you blow the wind a little bit stronger, you can see that you get the same pattern. But eventually, the air current is so strong it blows everything away. And the vorticity you create here by curl tau is net zero. So you have the possibility to actually not get an impact at all if you have a strong wind. So it is complicated. I would say perhaps more studies are needed to understand the dynamics of this, how it affects the vorticity in the ocean. So does it exist in the real world? So this is study where I was a lead water, but it was actually Elke Ludwig who did the modeling and Anja Schneerhorst that did the observations. This is a model. Here is a wind that the offshore wind form is here. So you have a wind wake with low wind speeds. On the flanks, there is actually high wind speeds. And before the wind form there is again a little bit low wind stress wind speed. So let's think the wind is going in this direction. So this figure is about this size, that figure. So let's look at the east section, these observations. So the east section, you would get an upwelling and you would get a downwelling. So this is going more towards, so this is going in that direction. And if you look in an observation, you can see this upwelling and this downwelling. And this is the place of the wind form. So this is the place of the wind form. So you can see that in the observations, there seems to be an indication of the pattern that you can see as an evidence of its consistent with theory. On the southern section, remember that the tanks tends to move in the direction of the right of the wind. On the south section, you can also see this, there is a downwelling pattern here and perhaps not one impact on her that is also reproduced in this model of ocean model. So it was a couple model of atmospheric ocean. So there were some evidence here. Flutter et al did a study. So they looked at these wind forms in the North Sea. So they took a ship and they went up and down like this. Now this was not operating at the moment. So you couldn't see anything from them. So this E is from that one. So in the wind form, you really don't see much. And the wind portion is in that direction. So it's going down. But when it comes to these points here, D1 and U1, you can see something that resembles a downwelling pattern and you can see an upwelling pattern. When it comes to U2 and D2, you can again see the downwelling pattern and upwelling pattern. And we're going to D3 and U3. You see a downwelling pattern and an upwelling pattern. So this is consistent with that you could create an upwelling, downwelling pattern. So this was June 27th, June 29th, again, then went like this. So this pattern, yeah, T2 here. You do see a downwelling pattern, upwelling pattern, and U3, D3. Again, you can spot it. But this is in the area of strong mixing. So you actually have these tidal fronts that goes around here and tidal jets. So I wouldn't say that you can conclude that there is a proof of this upwelling downwelling pattern. You can see an indication that it seems to be consistent with what we predict. And this was after strong wind events. So here you have actually a lot of mixing. So that has reset these upwelling, downwelling pattern 4-4. But again, you can see that it's U1, D1 in this sphere. You get an upwelling, downwelling. There you can get a downwelling upwelling. This is a little bit more yellowish and this is a little bit more purple. So you can say that this may have been downwelling and upwelling. So there is a lot of, there is some work using models to evaluate the impact of this proposed upwelling, downwelling pattern that occurs from, that you have a lower wind behind a wind farm. And Christensen in 2022, Uter will talk the next presentation. She will describe a lot more of these processes. And, yeah, write down your name, but I can't, Carl Stalba. I also did some work on the upwelling used by offshore wind farms development on the California coast. So it's a bit interesting. This is a few days old. So it's a commercial research in this and grant this issuance in the Gulf of Mexico. This is hybrid page of something. I didn't read it. It came yesterday or two days ago. There seems to be no evaluation on hydrodynamic impact and how changes in hydrodynamics impact on the environment. And I think it's, is, is, I think it can be an important issue. So as a final comments, wind wake will create an upwelling and downwelling type of it is actually quite well anchored in theory. It's really looking on what is the dynamics. It seems to be absurd. But it's not really so easy to detect. We expect it to be a tech detected by satellite observations, but it's not to be so easy to detect it, but it's in areas with a lot of variability. Modeling studies indicated changes. It changes the network environment, and we will talk more about that in our presentations. We will have a change in 20, 10 to 20% for productive in a quite large area. There is much larger than the ocean in primary. And also pointing out the solid structures can be important. They can be important for increased mixing. And also be important for basic growth of muscles in an area where you don't have muscles. And when they die or get ripped off the structure they can have a transport organic material to the bottom. They also impact on the, on the plankton community in the surface water. We know that oil platforms in the North Sea are have, for instance, cold water coral coral, Lofelia, and they can be transported to nearby regions. I would say this is a positive environmental impact. You can also have an organist that you don't want invasive species. So, maybe wind wake and upwelling and mixing from fun elements are the largest unknown regarding environmental index and that's known. It might be unknown as well. So I added some recommendations. And it is important that just at that one sets up a monitoring program, and that should be started well before the wind farm is set up either twice you won't be able to distinguish natural variability on what comes from the wind farm and this is an area of highly natural variability. And it would be nice if the modern program is producing real time data, and it can be using operational models for atmosphere. And a recommendation of logic. I don't have that much resolution is important. It's not everything. Getting the regional features correct is probably essential. And this is what Glenn said earlier. So you really need higher resolution on the whole coast. I think there's important that there is a biochemical model available for the numerical model one will use. And I also would go for. I do like open source models, and that the setup for the study is made available and ready to run. Thank you. Okay, thank you. I was going to say we had whole questions but yes, go right ahead. Thank you very much. Hi, I'm Mary Boatman from bone and I just want to point out the environmental assessment that you showed was for lease issuance. And for lease issuance at bone we analyze site characterization and site assessment. We do not analyze wind farms at that point in the process down the road when we get a construction operations plan. That's when we would analyze the wind farm. So this is strictly looking at surveys and the possibility of a met buoy. So there would be no issues or concerns with hydrodynamics and that's why it's not analyzed in that document. Okay, great. Thank you. Thank you for that clarification. Jeff French had a question in the chat here and we'll maybe do this and then we'll move on to the next presentation. And he was wondering about the footprint, the distance from the center of the farm of the hydrodynamic impact of the wind farm. How does it relate to the area of the wind farm and the number of turbines per unit area. Yeah, it's a good question. The wind wake. I mean this is all the wind wake. So you have a wake that comes from extracting then it is not much to do about it. So I think this will be discussed later. Remember her name. So maybe she's better answer the question but it's it's actually quite long. It's typically over five times the size of the wind farm area and this. So if the wind farmer covers an area of five by five kilometers, you can expect an impact on at least 30 by 30 kilometers, I would say. Okay. All right, thank you. There is another comment in the chat from York that you might want to look at here. I think we'll go ahead in the interest of time to move on to the next presentation. And I think you are the one making this presentation. Yes, thank you. Yes. Okay, thank you. Okay, and Ute is a physical oceanographer and she is at the Helmholtz Centrum Heron and has been working on looking at the impacts of wind farms on fisheries and other impacts on coastal marine ecosystems. So please go ahead. Thanks a lot for inviting me and give a bit of an overview about the impact of offshore wind farms on the Southern Osea ecosystem. And this is, I will present results from the America modelling work that we've been doing for a few years now. First question, can you see the presentation or do you see presenter's mode? No, we see the presentation. Perfect. First, I'd like to acknowledge that my co-workers, it's Chris Hansen, who did a lot of the modelling work in our group and just finished his PhD with us. And Navid Akhtar, who is an atmospheric modeler and Korean ashram. A bit to the introduction. I'm glad that Joran gives that basic introduction into the processes that are related to these wind rake effects. So that saves me a lot of time by explaining these people pattern and how that affects the environment. But I will show results from modelling work on a regional scale and that might answer some of the questions that came up before. How does that actually affect the environment on larger scales and what are the scales that you can expect? This is the background of the NRC. Just very recently in the under declaration, the NRC has been born as a green power plant of Europe, which will mean that they're planning or they committed to an installation of over 300 gigawatt by 2050, which is about 10 times of what we have today. And here in the map you see the different plant and construction areas. So in red is what is fully commissioned right now. And then there are a lot of other areas that are in discussions to kind of fulfill these 300 gigawatt, which is really, really a lot. Now when we think about the NRC, this is a very strongly used areas. Just when we kind of put on top of this the marine protected areas, we already see there are quite some regulations and restrictions on where you might be able to plant these offshore renewables. And there are other users of course, there's shipping, there's fisheries, there are military regions. So the NRC is really getting into an industrialized state. And so it becomes much more important now to know what are the impacts on both physics and biology in that area. So as Jürgen just said, there are basically two impacts we are talking about here. One is the wind speed reduction due to energy extraction in these windbanks. And the other one is the direct impact by structures in the ocean that typically create additional mixing in the system. And we have looked at both, but separately until now. So there are a lot of things to look at in future for example. So I will go through all the different impacts that we've found so far and hope I can clarify a bit. A bit to the windwakes. From satellite images, there have been shown that in 60% of the images you can see is these windwakes appearing and Lee also informs. And the relative wind decreases about 10 to 20% inside the wakes. These wakes can lead to up to 65 kilometers and Lee of the offshore windforms, independent of the atmospheric stability. So there's a very stable atmosphere you have very long wakes. There is a dynamic atmosphere these wakes are much shorter, sometimes not even seen. And of course, considering that there will be so many wind parks in the system, there will be also superposition of these wakes and they will affect each other. From numerical modeling, we've also seen that there is a generation of turbulent kinetic energy along these atmospheric wakes. And of course, there is an alteration of the wind forcing at the sea surface boundaries. Here is a sketch from David Acta's publication on simulating offshore wind effects and the atmosphere. Here we have on the left side the wind speed and the right side turbulent kinetic energies and this dashed line is a simulation without windparks and then the full lines of simulations with windparks. And then you see, while you have at the sea surface a reduction in wind speed, and in the atmosphere you have a strong increase in turbulent kinetic energy which doesn't necessarily reach the sea surface. So how does that affect the ocean? Well, you got the basic introduction from your hand. And we look at the regional scale under the conditions of current, yeah, now installed windparks in the southern sea. So this is a German bite area. And this is from a simulation with an unstructured grid model schism where the windwakes have been parameterized using an empirical formulation deduced from satellite images. On the left side you see the estimated wind speed reduction in the also in terms, and you can very see very nicely on how long these waves actually go in the surrounding also in parts and then in the right side you have to change and current velocities of the surface. So you have a direct impact on what's happening in the surface current velocity. So clear process chain energy extraction reduction of wind speed at sea surface and then change in sea surface currents. However, as we've heard before, there is a whole process chain related to this process actually. And a somewhat closer look and an average situation for summer in the whole North Sea shows on the one hand the mean change and wind speed which is actually quite substantial in the areas where there are a lot of wind from clusters. But in addition, we do have a general change and the residual currents, which is actually substantial and covers almost the whole area. And there is an additional change in the surface elevation. This is very small change, but it shows that these depots actually when there are a lot of wind farms clustering together also these system response clusters into larger depots. And this also impacts the certification of the system. So the noisy is a system which is strongly impacted by tights. We use the same model set up to assess whether the tights actually mitigate these effects that have been described before. However, there's the same answer to a good model. Nils perform simulations with tights on result type and looked at whether there is an impact on the process magnitude. On the left side here you can see actually a representation on how the effects look during flood type and how they look during applied. And here you can already see that there is a very strong impact and of course that makes sense. In this case the wind actually comes nicely from the southwest. So you have, in case of a flood type you do have an alignment with the currents. And you get this nice reduction of current speed and lee of the wind farms. Well, but of course in uptie the currents go in the other direction. You still have a reduction of the wind induced currents on the surface, which means that the actual current speed becomes larger because it's going in the opposite direction. And this is a process of we haven't gone through that so much before but it means that the effects are actually mitigated by the up streams. And it's not only on the surface where we see that but actually when you look in the radical you do see that it's actually going all the way to the sea bad which is here but so deep. On the right side. On the right side he estimated the difference for a simulation risk types, which is on the left side and it's current speed up here and then there is stratification in the lower panel. And this is the same simulation, but he did not force the simulation was tight so there is no types in this simulation. In principle, you can see that the pattern is somewhat different, but what is most striking here is that the effect is actually about. And for the current is about 10 times or maybe five times as high as it would be recitides for the current speed and also for the stratification. The effects without tights are much stronger than which tights. So here, he clearly concluded that this periodic tile currents can mitigate the impact of the wind speed reduction over time due to the opposing changes in the horizontal flow. But we also see that in this very well mixed areas that comes with the tights in the shallow areas. This is kind of a secondary effect that mitigates the impact of the offshoring parks because the tile steering can influence the effect of the vertical transport and therefore eternity impacts on temperature and salinity and certification. So, types play a very important role and when you have a system with strong ties, these general effects can be mitigated by the types. So we also wanted to see what happened to the ecosystem now. And therefore we set up a different model system because we need the ecosystem model. And we use the model chain here with atmospheric forcing that I showed before where we have offshore wind farms directly parameterized inside the atmospheric model. And then we do have a grid system with a two kilometer resolution here that is coupled to a lower traffic level ecosystem model. This is a simple well flow diagram of this model and it basically says that there are kind of sweet types of nutrient cycle simulated. So we find a plant and groups to the plant and groups that's a very typical and PZP type model. And we run the system for one year only because of actually, it took us quite a while to run it so didn't have time to do more assimilation. And we did a spin up here in two years. And then do I see these deep holes. So this is a composite plot for wind directions from southwest and you can nicely see in the vertical velocities that there is an upwelling pattern to the right of these clusters and then there is this down the downwelling pattern to the left or well more or less inside these clusters. And this is nicely in agreement with your unjust showed just for the whole area. There's these black polygons show the areas where we consider the wind talks. So it's a hypersatical scenario right now. If you change it over if you look at different wind directions these pattern changes so that's a good sign that this has been nicely covered by the model. So I've averaged that over the year. What are the impact on the overall system dynamics and here I looked at mixed layer dubs and current velocities. And for the mixed layer dubs I wasn't that surprised there was a shadowing general shadowing also makes layer since you kind of reduce the energy that's mixing the surface layer. And what I was really surprised of that you see general decrease in the residual currents almost everywhere in that area not only where you have so informed, but there are also still some areas where you actually see an increase and current velocities and then some areas that can amount to up to 10% of some current velocities. So that affects the ecosystem. While this on the left side you see representation of the prime production in the area, and you can nicely see the prime production is highest in these front title fronts. So this is a very typical situation in the North Sea, but you also see that many of the plant wind talks are situated in these frontal areas. So that would be expect the change to be and this is for the whole year, but you can actually see that they're actually pattern appearing, but they are not only located to where your clusters are structured but they're actually impacting the whole area. And we have a general decrease of private production in the situation in the regions where the clusters are, but there is an increase in the locations around these clusters here and also at the bank. So all areas that are very important and dynamic on the North Sea ecosystem and we expect that this might be actually playable also for higher trophics. This is I will not explain that very detailed but it also shows that in especially the stratified areas you would expect a vertical shift in your productivity related to these wind rakes of the system. So we have ecosystem variables we looked at where actually sediment biomass or biogenic carbon inside the sediment. And also here we see a redistribution mainly related to the changes in the bottom shear stress. So we saw that there is a stronger increase in sediment biomass and deeper areas where there is a bit of increase in sediment biomass in the deeper areas and decrease in sediment biomass and shallow areas. And what I thought was really most interesting was actually the dissolved oxygen in the bottom layer. Normally the North Sea is not an area that's very limited by oxygen, but here in this area at oyster grounds. There are certain areas that can become hypoxic during autumn, as it's like a trial where the system contains material. And that has also been shown before from moving data for example in oyster grounds on the sea and in autumn you have these very low oxygen situations. So we saw from the model that these low oxygen situations actually can be even more decreased, at least in the year we simulated. So, I just wanted to show once more this kind of change and prime production versus marine protected areas and I think it's important to keep in mind that the impacts we see from this large clusters of showing farms are not very, not local. The changes that can be expected in a large, in a much larger environment. Now the North Sea might be very special in that case, but maybe not what needs to be assessed, I guess. So the last part where I want to guide you very quickly through is these mixing in the ocean, which is somewhat different process, and actually quite interesting because it might actually compensate for some of the changes that come from the windwakes. These are both figures from a nice review paper from Robert Jarrell last year and this shows that kind of when the currents meets the piles that they kind of induce these kind of mixing and vortices in lee of these piles and they have carbon therapies just with us has a huge experience with that. And he hypothesized that that might kind of induce a neutral flux into the euphoric zone and that's increased productivity in the first time. So we started to look at this as well, again with the same unstructured grid system we have before implementing trying different things here. So trying different things here like using a direct implementation of these piles versus a direct parameterization that comes from simulations that Jeff's group have been doing. And then we wanted to see is the effect actually smaller than the windbakes, because we would expect while they're a bit smaller in space at least. And what we found was that this effect is actually the same order of magnitude as the effect that we expect for the windwakes. And here is the changes in current speed changes and the changes in stratification. And you see that for the current speed changes in fact we found also again decreased while the stratification changes actually the opposite to what we expect from the windwakes. So if I put that side by side here just to give a bit of an idea about this is the change in potential energy and not normally for the for the simulation with the atmospheric break versus the simulation. This is the simulation with the pile effect itself. And there you can see for the stratification it goes kind of in an opposite direction while for the current speed is a bit more complicated. And what the next step would be in the future is actually to combine these effect to see what's in that effect actually will be. So to summarize, we see that this after it comes out of the physical condition on that it results in large scale anomalies and not only very local anomalies. And we have an ecosystem response which is also large scale and tends to restructure the productivity in the system but also carbon sediments or bottom water oxygen are impacted. And it needs to be kept in mind that there are far field effects really far field effects that might, for example, impact other areas marine protected areas and that need to be assessed. Clearly, while considering these offshore in parks. There are also a lot of things that we don't know of course. Well, this is just a bit of a list. I did not set up recommendations here. But I think what what's a major recommendation is take keep in mind that there is not just the local fact that the whole thing will change and type play an important role. And yes, in terms of modeling clearly I also don't think that it's very, I mean, it's a special case important as your answer, but it's not the most important thing it just needs to be. Clearly the system needs to be clearly represented to cover these changes. Thanks so much. Apologies for the interaction. Fine. Thank you. Maybe we'll take one or two quick questions before moving to the next. Josh and then. Okay, yeah. Thank you for those those two related talks. My question is that you showed in both talks some impacts on current stratification. Thank you for the introduction deal. Can you comment on how those changes scale to natural variability either like within season or even week to week or year to year. Are these of the same order smaller larger. That can be in the same order, while at least for the productivity but clearly the seasonal variability in the North sea for example the super large. So, since we have a very clear seasonal cycle in productivity so that's much larger than this attack but for the inter annual variability I think these like 10% that can be in the range of what you would expect. So it's less about natural variability. However, what I, what I forgot to say is actually when you integrate over the whole area. The net change and prime production for example was very small was almost not there. So it's less about a net change and prime production and more about a redistribution in both space and time and I think that's important to consider. Yeah, thank you for the presentation. I had a question about the explicit integration of the foundations into the hydrodynamic model. If I saw correctly your grid resolution ranges between four meters and 1000 meters in those simulations. And with the foundation sizes of let's say 810 meters. Of course the resolution of the grid is nowhere near fine enough to capture all the local processes around the foundation foundation so I was wondering how you model the foundations and what the value of that explicit relatively course integration is in that model. Yeah, that's actually that's a very long story. And just can certainly say even more on this because the parameterization is kept from his model. This is explicit integration. We actually had a couple of more problems. That's why we chose for the final simulation the direct parameterization. Since the schism model is has a uses a hydrostatic assumption, and that doesn't work on these very fine scales. So, in the paper from me that just came out, like, two or three weeks ago, and Jeff and myself a course or so. He makes an assessment on this implementation of this of these foundations and clearly explained why it's very probably not so appropriate using that in a hydrostatic model. But yeah, that's a very long story so I recommend to look into the paper and maybe talk to Jeff as well. I think you Christina you've had a, or do you want to respond for do it later. Okay. I wasn't sure if you had your hand up to make a comment that questions. Okay. Yeah. Maybe Christina you had a question in the chat did you want to ask that and then we'll come back to your question. The question is in the chat to, and I'm concerned about several of the figures that you showed the numerical simulations had an incredible amount of numerical noise that can potentially mask the real results. I emphasize them exaggerate them when I see a figure full of blue and red dots everywhere so far away from the location where the perturbations actually occurred. I'm very, very concerned and I'm very aware of the numerical noise, chaos seeding issues that some models have. So I'm wondering if you've taken care of this problem in any way. And yeah, I'm, I'm just very suspicious of these results. Lots of American noise came actually also from the atmospheric foresee, but I actually checked the signal to this noise signal and the surrounding and the signals from the simulation was significantly stronger than from the noise. Okay, thank you. Jeff, did you had questions. Yeah. Hi, it's Jeff here I'm in the United States actually. So I had a question if you've looked at for the windway parameterizations have you have you looked at different types of parameterizations and any effects that that would have on the results. No, I haven't further simulations we had we just had this kind of one simulation, which took months to do in the atmosphere. So, but now it is currently working also and, well, not on different types of parameterization but on different types of parameter settings for the, I mean, I'm not sure what you mean parameterization or the parameter settings for the for the clusters. So I think he's very testing these different types like how high changes on how high can changes in density of piles to see how that affects the results but we haven't made simulations with that yet. And then maybe one quick other question was on the primary productivity results. So this dipoles they show, you know, positive and negative anomalies, and then you see very little net change in an NPP. And is that just because these dipoles kind of have a canceling nature to themselves. Yes, but also because they are not very consistent. I mean, you have constantly changing wind directions. So what I showed we're actually very basically just analyze the situations with certain directions. But in reality, there's also constantly changing. So I think that's one of the reasons and then the effects I think also cancel each other out. We're going to hear about hydrodynamic models, methods, assumptions and conclusions and how these translate to the Nantucket-Scholes region and we have three presentations. The first of these will be by Chang Xin Chen, who is a professor at the School for Marine Science and Technology at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth. And I think it's fair to say that he is the person behind the development of the finite volume community ocean model that we've already heard referenced in presentations this morning. And so he's going to talk to us today about some of the about the model and some of the applications of the model for looking at offshore wind farms. Is everyone can see that? Okay, I put it like a presentation mode. So, okay. So, when I talk today, you know, we talk about the potential impact of renewable energy for environment issues in the Northeast region. So we've, this project was first funded by Bong, the 2014, later we get a NOAA. So we get a lot of people involved in the project, you know, we get a fisheries people like Kevin Stalbury, like Pingo. We also had a fish oceanography, like a Bob Beasley in the Wusha and also had a, you know, had a right away person that's got a garage. Okay. This project is working by, you know, UMass and the Wusha together. Okay. So, okay, okay, why not able to move. Okay, so look about the structure here, you know, look at the wind farm. So, we see interesting, so we get a whole region, you look at the Northeast region, you get Massachusetts and the Northern water. So they have a larger area in the region, they're all Northeast region. So this look about, you know, Glenn talked about a lot of fiscal oceanography already, I probably don't need to go so many anymore, but we look at the circulation pattern here. So that's the whole offshore wind farm area. So you get a circulation for Cape Corp region also come from Georgia Bank and the short big front circulation come down. So, you know, when this region, the Northeast region, the Massachusetts water and the Northern water, so they already had a night company get the lease. They will be deployed no wind turbine into system. The only show that before, when we get a 2014 they said they put a 136 wind turbine into system. But now only one company come from, you know, like a, like wind farm. So they will be put here smaller yellow region here was half region put a hundred. That means you get a lot of wind farm, you know, there. So, so even this one here, they get a, you know, they get a lot of generation wind farm region, but also they put a, you know, tower region is a 16 feet. So what do you do, you had to think about without a system here, then look about what a structure here. This picture shows the scallop distribution for future data. So you see the most regions are very interesting. You get a, you know, you get a middle and divide a larger population scholar there. I think Alan will do a lot of work about this. Right. So they also had a Georgia Bank region had a one here. You look at the Nantucki saw region. This region here you don't, you don't have a lot of scallop major over here, but that's the point of wind farm there. The question is how they affect that. So, so you look about a picture here. I want to see most scallop we find over there. They're swarming on the Georgia Bank, a great size of China. When it's swarming the Georgia Bank region is swarming there. So then the lobby were moving down by the current, then 40 days later they settled down in the bottom. So the red one, the surface, not a modest simulation. So we do a 40 year simulation for a scholar. So then the blue one is all settled down here. Okay, most of it, but in a lot of a lobby will settle down in the, in the, in the southern New England shop on the Nantucki saw region. But then the question, the problem, you know, then you, then you look about it. You look about, you know, wind farm, you said, okay, now I put a wind farm there. I put individual wind turbine into system. So they get a, you know, what tax week. All right, okay, I'm going to wait as a week over there. That's the model simulation. You can see a lot of way can generate there. So the question here, you know, does this is really true on Nantucki saw region. What can be happened like this. So we, let me, we was doing. Okay. So we were the question here. Then you look at circulation pattern, I'll probably skip this one because the ground talk a really nice talk and shop or whole things here. So that's the red ones, the surface circulation, the blue, you know, know why the one is like a steeper circulation, you can see the circulation. One, two secretion. Why is the comfort government region go down, keep courage. Another one's come from Georgia back secretion home here. This region is a flu system. It's not like you look about North Sea, they have a basin like a semi-employed basin, but in our region everything's open. Okay, they just go through a system there. So that's why you full, they also had a one, you know, no God string, the one chlorine that can have some mention about it. There was a lot of intrusion in the shopping region. So then we want to see that for long term, you know, God string is really important. I will see what the condom for for short term, they can stronger tie the current over there. So what's happened. So I want to show you some kind of work we done before. And I think it's Anthony and the was all in the government department. So he had answered proposal funding for quarter measurement. So we get up obviously under Steve Lance, I'm working together. I do the modeling Anthony to observation. That's the region never said region they do a quarter measurement. So that's the data coverage. You see that you look about the, you know, signal. So semi-dialyte is a very dominant energy in the region. You know, the data has a very important semi M2 tests are very dominant. So we compare with the mother and the quarter data tied the simulation really match each other. Had a simulation, but even you have a lot of data uncertainty, but you still get a very much of a tie. But then look, then a question here that you, you can do this one here. So you look at the ties in our region. This is the whole Georgia Bank government region stronger tie. Over here, Nantaki saw some region that Nantaka solution, they get a lot of for tight generation 80 along the, along the island. So this equation can be stronger force back over there to all time. All time region. That's why you know region is very different for we saw in other region. Okay. So like, you know, we mentioned here today, the grand mention that wind driving circulation is one or the smaller than time. Well, you know, you had to look low pass filter you can see how the wind driving circulation. So most strongly daily variation is tied. So then a question here, then we also had a noise stone, because a lot of stone coming. So stone come here, they can, they carry the big way. No, they carry no way stronger wind. No, they get a lot stronger way also ways very important. We don't come here, you can serve as a way in Nantaki saw region. And the one stone come here way high can be 10 meter. 10 meter high the way and the song come here. So when you have a hurricane, for example, we only had one hero can really cross our region in the hurricane Bob 1991. So that's how I was student in the woods. So we, we all, you actually start everything down over there. So you can see the window stone, you know, here we can come. It writes out a big way. Come here along the region. So that's the way come here, you got a wind turbine how to interact with it. Okay, that's why you get a short turn, you get a noise stone, you get a, you know, you get a, you get a, you get a hurricane. No long term, you get a downstream meandering or other thing. You know, that's a lot of physical process over there. So we have developed a model called North, North East or coastal ocean forecast system called NECOP. A time it was the deal man near course of finding us. That's the, it's the atmosphere ocean couple model system. So we next in the global model and original model. And also mass cost model. That's the model mass cost model is 10 meter resolution in cool region here. The Nantucket region is about a hundred meter resolution. So ocean, we use this model to use for ocean rescue. The rest of ocean rescue doing fully couple via the four in addition model. I don't want to talk about it anymore about it. We talk about Nantucket South region. But uses the model system we run for 40 years. We had a 40 year audit data build up data simulation to whole region. So then uses a fair. So we compare with a, you know, a son is a, you know, call that data. Okay, that's the movie show you about low pass filter. See how they change it with the monthly red wine is the mother in the blue wine. So call that it no red wine. So call that data. The black wine is the model, you know, mother. You see that it really match where we're going to switch in high. So then we do a trip to study. Let's have a trip to study. No, this is a trip to study is kind of observation and the modeling is really match, you know, showing the color a dissimulation of this here. So based on the study, we saw that can be do the offshore wind wind farm. So the question, you know, like we took it to the day. If you do the wind farm, you have to resolve the wind turbine. How you do the wind turbine. So we walking with the company, you know, we know when we get a desire. They have a two layoff. The one left here. There's a layoff one layoff two. I have a question here is the first thing you can you model resolve the wind turbine. You will resolve wind turbine how to look at that. The second question how they affect the fall. No ecosystem. We do the scope of population model see how population will move. So I go quickly the model resolution one meter. Included by this next thing with the global regional and the local model. Included a new you have this region we can put a wind turbine into a system. So that's a whole nesting. You get a really true environment in the region. So we also run for me knowledge model it I show you. The three me knowledge of the couple together see how the wind changes. Okay, so that's what we do the publishing one about it is quite more about this. So that in 2014. We want to see how the cure can, how to know is stone can affect that. So we do this one here. We finally know really dependent on how your stone come from. For no is a stone the case a hundred years long. You see the big change in the way surface way change a lot. You will talk about a circulation talk about the way way, but then you can see the way change a lot. If a hurricane come here. They know the effect if you put a wind turbine here, we put 135 wind turbine. You find a hole here in the in the coast region can be really change the big way. You can cause a lot more signal in the nation future if a hurricane come from south. If you know is stone come from North East. You see whole region the wind we can be changing in the region too. So then look at the bottom. You can see the bottom hepatitis. This is H point is the wind turbine. You can see how the wind turbine change the bottom circulation. You can cause a lot of, you know, residual circulation near the bottom. The sentiment can be changes. So that's the first study we do for bomb. We only put a 130 by wind turbine. But now they change everything changes story changes. Okay, so, so then we do a 40 year. Stability simulation, you see the scalpel, scalpel, you know, Scalpel, you know, assemble energy. You see the percentage in the list of mean distribution. A lot of a lot of you stay here in the region. But then, okay, no variability. Much variability is a new English shelf region. But it's a really larger variability. Okay. George make a very stable. That's a variability. So we do this one here. When you run for basic model without a wind farm. You see, that's the settle down the lobby. You run for the full year. Recruit a model. You find that's the observation show you that's that's the observation the model. No many lobby can survive. Into New England shelf region. They all because of hepatitis or all things there. So most high pubs region is stayed under still like observation, like a great South China or Georgia bank. But in the region most of the time. We run for 40 years simulation. We find all the problem. I talk about the scalpel. Sanctuary Tommy said a basic issue. This is a hepatitis issue causal problem or temperature. Also cause a problem. But then we want to see how the effect. Now we do a really window simulation. So that's the model we do for 100 years. The hundred winter might be put into like a new engine into design. So this is a movie show you how to change the circulation look like. Each one is the winter turbine. Okay. So we don't put a transition in there, which is wrong. The simulation. So you look about it when you're zoning. You want to see individual term to mine. You see the red lines of part of what he see the blue lines and negative what he see. So you did not see. Like a vortex awake. Okay. So you don't have all the time over here. But you do see the change of your time. The tight cycle red one. You see individual right one is the part of what he see. The blue one is negative what he see. They change with the tight cycle. The one two time per day. Because same with Diana. So they tend to shop. They don't have a steady circulation. Over there. That's why you don't. You do see the way shocking shortly. Participation really quickly. Okay. So that's what I said. Individual circulation. Over there. That's really resolved for the winter. My mother. You know, you're doing this one. So that's why our North East region. It's very different from the European region. No, because we get so open. Why we got so stronger time. So that's the circulation can become a different. So then I look about, you know, look about here. You look at a whole type of cycle. You see over here. This is an active artistic. So you did what he did change with time. With the side cycle. So the influence region. Okay. They do have a shooting. But it is shooting to the page very quickly. Like a random walk. But then they all just because. The water also. The region is really stratified. Also our region is completely different from other region. Because we so stronger time. Tight circulation. You know, circulation. That's what you'll find. You know, you look about a surface, the bottom, red ones, the bottom, the blue, the black ones, the surface. Because the water stratified. That's what surface occurring at the bottom current, not to go to the same direction. So you see the mostly side of surface over here. The bottom is that direction. When they change with a tight cycle, they change with a tight cycle. They change with a long time. If you do the averaging. I do the three months of averaging. You see, that's the bottom. You know, that's the, that's the bottom stress. The bottom stress is a change here and here, but scarce, not very big. No, Jeff. Ranger ask a question. See how large your effect is. It's only about a 50, 50 meter. Significant change and the 50 meter in the local domain. But then you look about. That's the maximum for three months. That's the maximum you can find. But you look at what the column. The mixing with the column. The most everywhere. Okay, the bottom stress. Look at very north, east, north, south, and teaching. But what the column mixing. It was causing around the whole region. Also, maximum, you can see the edgy shooting. Some region you can see, but not like a steady, like we find it so that's what happened. So then what really happened is, you know, you look about this one here. This is the wind turbine. We put a hundred wind turbine here. You look at the bottom stress. This top months without wind turbine, the bottom line with turbine. You find the most about the stress intensified by the larger, not in the wind turbine region. What's in the shallow region and then talk is all. Because this is shallow. That's the shallow region. Because it's a little bit deeper than 40 and 50 meter. But here is like a 30 and 40 meter. That's the bottom stress. It can be changed a lot. So then you do the transect. You want to try a second. You want to see what happened. You want to have a transect over here. You find that this top ones without a wind turbine. That's the great South China or the water here. You see that that's a cold water. No, in the deep China. The wind turbine was using here. But after you put the wind turbine in, they suck the water. And they put the outwelling. The outwelling is strongly from the Great South China Club onto the Nantaki Salt region. That means you can bring a lot of nutrient into the system. So then they are fed here. You can have a cold water intruding from the surrounding Great South China region to here. For the wind turbine. That's why the reason because the bottom stress and the shore region becomes so strongly. The circulation reaching the changes. So that's the model for the next model. So then we look at the larvae distribution. The fish larvae, not like a scarper larvae distribution. You look at one here. We also consider about the semi-dianada, the behavior of the phytoplankton larvae. But this one is without wind turbine is in cold turbine. What happened? Everything moving offshore. Everything moving offshore. This morning I talked to one person. He was European he was talking there. He finally you know, if a wind turbine the circulation is drifting. So we find a similar thing you see here. This one without the wind turbine. This one without a turbine. Everything moving offshore. So I give a talk to a fisherman. He feels very happy because a close region boxes. That's a closing area. That's a closing area for fishing. Okay, that's why they say all larvae stay there. They probably get a more scar. You know, because they're not allowed to catch you over there. Okay, but then you look publishing the same way. We do the many simulation. Many year simulation. All same pattern. All same pattern. So then we do the static analysis to assemble include all the swimming behavior. Okay, we finally know this is without a wind turbine up level is below as a wind turbine. So you can see they're all moving now offshore. That's the reason you get a transport moving offshore. That's the reason you get a intrusion water you can offshore transport over there. Then you get intrusion water come from the bottom. That's really affected regionally. So that's what happened. We finally here. So now you look about how the wind can be changers. So you look about we put a hundred wind termizes here. So we run a war for whole year. One kilometer resolution. So we win the turbine. We look about how the energy we use to turn my height one hundred twenty one meter use in touch with design. So we know how the lottery the diameter the one hundred eighty meter. So we know what a parameter for the model we run a wall. That's I do the whole scene. Every you see over here that spring time. All the wind effect in this side. Not every place. Summer time you see this side because the window mark come from southeast. You see this side that can be changed by inside is not changing much. But then you see the autumn the fall. You see the wind the most a lot of ability to win. You see the region still was in the lee side over there. If that's the hundred wind term I hold the wind changers. So then the winter time you see the most whole area can be changers. The wind time in the winter come from in the northeast region. So that's why you can see the way to be strong in the wind. So the wind changer. So then you want to see how the circulation can change. So I didn't show the movie show you how to change it. So this one you know this one show you you know without the wind you know you have affected by the you know the wind not changes. This one had to consider wind changes by turbine. You see they still show the same pattern. You still show the offshore cities go there. But however they're more concentrated over there. You see this one is a little bit spare. This one is pushing to be larger. This one is smaller. So that means you know even you don't consider wind changers you know you put a wind turbine into the system you really can call offshore transport enhancement transport. You can do the circulation can be much complicated. So that's the basic we found. So then what reason you know when we do the study I think Bob said let's do the dispersion study see how this happened. So we said okay let's put only particle not like a larvae put a particle there. So this one without a wind turbine we found in the wind turbine dispersion becomes smaller because you have a larger dispersion wind turbine dispersion is very small. You see here it's very narrow. Okay you put everything here in the wind turbine you see here it changes a lot. Then you look at this one here this wind turbine dispersion is really bigger. Everything is spare out. In cool turbine you see here it was a dispersion yellow. Dispersion is smaller. That's why when you include wind turbine system the dispersion changes. That's the circulation can be changes. That's all basically we found. So then another question about industry design because regular D1 designing I can put the wind turbine this way. I can put the eastern north this way. Even separation scale is the same but location is different orientation is different. How this designing can affect the circulation. So we find they do affect it but not like current it do affect it. That's the layer of one layer of two. You see they are very similar but change is very smaller not very bigger but they do change it but not like we think of the current like a tide. So that's what happened. So now the question come up and the climate change climate change here Glamour mentioned this warming system here. This 2010 they got a big warming here. So we do the simulation for 40 years simulation region model. We found bottom temperature change a lot. So you can see the georgia much stratified. The gradient can be much stronger warming. So before you get all chance to go south but now the chance for larger variability you know the annual variability thousand chance here change a lot. So then you also see you have a you can put the water in here lot of one core AD can be affected region. That's why we finally know how to do the climate change. So to address the question we do a couple thing for since we do a couple model we already couple with our wind resolving termite model with the atomized model wall. Before I just run the wind termite change the wind adjust with the ocean. But now we do the whole couple. You know, instantly your SIT changes the factor work model see how they changes. So that's the model we develop. Okay. Last couple years my student published paper 2022 in the Parker oceanography. So then the four things we've added the model. We also make a new designing for the four nesting model the one two three four. So that's for the model the couple model system. Each one we have a nesting model wrong for couple model. You result wind termite you're going to see what happens. Okay. That's a whole domain. We got a one common resolution in our model. So we get one meter resolution wind termite model. Okay. So then then the simulation we do the testing for who can send it. We finally the AC coupling change a lot. Okay. If without AC coupling that's the hurricane pack with a coupling get this way get a very close. The pressure simulation. I don't want to talk too much about this. We find as a AC the energy flux is very important. But now we make a tooth ready. We can wrongly this one to simulate how the wind termite is. Last one I want to show this kind of climate change model. We also look like a people talking about the awesome model. So we're working them together. We already couple awesome into the new cop. We have a fully couple awesome model with the new cop region simulation origin. So we already run for many years. That's the data we compare region here. We rather couple region we compare the old model. This model is good. They go to the PCO to PhD. They have low traffic for the web model. So I just quickly go through. That's the comparison come out. We can simulation the new train, simulation phytoplankton, zooplankton simulation whole region. We do the many years simulation. Come on is the coverage model is pretty good for region. So then last things I want to talk about downscaling. So we have you know me knowledge downscaling. We run for global regional technology model, downscaling model. So we can reach in the wolf model climate change model, three common resolution. We run for we prediction for 2050. So we run a climate change model all we found. We found for 2050 stratification change a lot. The springtime you get a stratification intensified significantly. But in the fall summer we found a storm. We don't know how can we change the model correct or not. At least we found a stone number in the 2050 had a much more than before. You get a more stone. So you find in our region in the spring or summertime water because it's very stratified in the fall you can enhance the mixing. That's why the question come out if you include a wind farm what's really happened. So we have a lot of fiscal about we try to do the simulation use this way to see what happened. So the basically you know that's what I talk. So we have been we find you know you really need to resolve the wind turbine. If you really want to do simulation. So that's the reason we have a wind turbine resolving the model. So we get a fiscal by large amount of region we do assessment. But really question we do only in our night company we're put all the wind turbine there. So what accumulation effect we don't know right you to a hundred year already significantly changing if we're not solid what happened. So we finally here today probably not a true anymore. If you put a more that's why I saw this really you know important things understand accumulation effect. Okay that's what I basically what I talk today. I go to fast but I put a pop up here. So you know if everyone interesting can look my pop up. Yeah wow lots of interesting simulations and things to think about maybe we'll take one question and then we'll move on to the next presentation. If there is a question. Yes Richard. Title mixing sorry. Title mixing was really important in your research. How widespread would that be in the larger area though. Okay. Yeah you know larger no type of this government region this whole government you have a couple of type of mixing zone. Nantaki saw is the one technique is on if you look at type very interesting feature there. I the system in the region there are two types of system. Why is the title come from down another New England gone down. Nantaki saw region is a converging wrong. It's a title converging wrong. That's reaching title mixing very strongly. So like a most like a where text mixing and on the close to the great south China side by another side is no new English region that's the mixed region. But a whole region below what a bit no shorter than 40 meter kind of very important. No 40 to 50 meter very stronger type mixing. So I made this to be sure understand that full region of all not no, you know Nova Scotia had one region. So sorry Georgia bank and then Nantaki saw. I just I'm we're really concerned about the area that's subsumed by those nine projects south of the vineyard and Nantucket. So my question is really focused on that one area. So is that full area one where title mixing whether it's a dino or semi dino tide is important to be considering in the modeling. I should see this important but however stratification also important. You know because reason you know because region is very stratified. So in Nantaki saw region like summertime and spring time really stratified. So there's really no stratification you don't have a cold pool there. Okay region there. That's why I the mix is strongly but stratification was important you know so you compatible together not every mix every regions mix it is still stratified so you put a wind turbine in there you enhance the mixing but however the mixing is locally locally the locally about a 15 meter around the wind turbine but this is very intensified but however they change the whole transport surface current as Graham mentioned today they can show big they can intrusion water we found you know we found this region here if you wind turbine this region here you can surface current to go offshore the bottom current is going so you probably can the future can in enhance the intrusion water for short break region okay yeah no one another things one other things I want to forget to mention we do a chemistry study for mixed layer when the warming get mixed in the shallow wind turbine in cooler push water offshore but in cooler stratification the shallow mix layer they put the water you flow in that's why two things will complete each other you don't know what's really happened okay yeah Christina and Jeff I love your setup with the variable resolution domain and the high resolution around the wind turbine so there's no parameterization you resolve it what I just can't understand is how it's possible that you show as results where the effects of the of the foundation are limited within 30 to 50 meters of the turbines they are absolutely gone from the domain in 100 meters and yet you see regional impacts 500 kilometers away what does that how can it be physically what can possibly do that okay you mean no wind we put like a wind turbine like a you know like a small region 100 meters right but then the question they got a lot of mass scarcity no circulation changes so then they push the water surface offshore there's nothing left you know there's nothing to push if they had a current to go out so then what happened so then the surrounding water compensation of water in that's the reason the water if you look at the tide you see nothing because it's moving like this way but then you feel the tide out you do see low frame circulation changes you know from Great South China flowing up compensation of water loss was in the region so that's why we find the most significant changes in the shallow nearby region not in the wind turbine region a long region had a very shallow you look at the possibility here's the deep here's the shallow the strongest effect cannot possibly be away from the location where it's caused there's nothing that it's like there's some kind of a convergence of small effects that converge somewhere else and become stronger that is not natural oh no I I believe you live individual termite there that's why we do we do analysis right now we had a big box model in region so we want to see how much net transfer changes bring the wind turbine region so then we want to see how the water in because we get a week I want to calculate your water mass balance see how the balance will come in so then we'll see how the water why the water can intrude in the deep region come down come out so you look about circulation there you want to see that so you know so you look about because if you only want to put one or two is not affectable much but you will put a hundred hundred there that's why the whole region you know you look at you know particle tracking dispersion dispersion change you see the whole water just moving out okay that's what they do but you know probably I'm not able to address your question well aware okay but that's why you know the simulation to see this one because we do the region is nesting this model is a region the model nesting model there region is really far away the model region so that's why you don't affect it but you know the reason we run the model for you know you when you go to boundary you can be affected by but we have to not reach the boundary we find all the side of circulation not much change but just transport change yes okay sounds like but we can talk further discussion Jeff and then Douglas yeah I seems to me like there's two different ways of including the turbine effects in the ocean you know there's the sort of bulk parameterization where you say this patch is wind farm and I'm going to extract a certain amount of momentum from that patch that's provided by the drag formulas or some other law and then there's the method that you chose which is to actually resolve or try to resolve the individual wakes with a really high resolution around the structures themselves and I guess you know you chose a very challenging approach but I wonder how well do you think that that model is representing these small scale wake effects you know it should have a parameterization that's I think capable of dealing with those types of flows and the effects that you would expect in those very small scale rapidly changing flows so how well do you how confident are you in what the model is doing there that's a very good question you know I should honestly you know because we use the term as a closure model we validate the closed closure model for tidal mixing before okay my you know like Georgia Bank region we validate but we finally know we use the model you know term as a closure scheme this model this scheme is a really good simulation tidal mixing but not for wind mixing okay wind mixing sometimes are fair okay but tidal mixing they can result way too well so we compare with the observation data term as a measurement comes pretty good but then you when you want to go to a small scale the questions of my address you know I run a simulation with a hydrostatic approximation but when you go to one meter resolution you have to turn on a non hydrostatic you have to consider convection so I didn't mention here no RC couple more we do non hydrostatic the hurricane simulation we did is non hydrostatic so when we do the hurricane simulation so we finally though when you turn on non hydrostatic convection can cause really important impact but then I can bring Tommy said turn when we test the hurricane we do the resolution is about one kilometer 500 meters in the sharp region the cancelling not result of non hydrostatic be true we compare with the model hydrostatic if resolution not horizontal resolution not enough you didn't result but in deep ocean the weather where when the sharp region not but when turn my model running now we have to turn on the non hydrostatic so we want to see how convection because we find the convection probably more important than the diffusion when the small scale coming so I don't get the answer yet but the system we have right now we have a non hydrostatic so when you turn on a really RC couple model you have to turn on the non hydrostatic for the small scale like a one meter okay go ahead thanks Eileen well I'm first of all I need some time to digest all this of course and not just not just chins but one thing does occur to me and I know we can't do it because we don't have the turbines aren't in the water yet but are there some examples either chin with yours or some of our European colleagues that presented earlier use of some data source remotely sense data or otherwise to actually test against the model predictions and I look at things like the productivity predictions from the models in the North Sea yes and I understand that they're different systems but are we using any available data to ground truth and verify some of the model predictions you know let me do a regional model this model is wrong we use our Hank's model wrong this includes all data assimilation include a temperature, humidity current assimilation for whole region so we compare with the SCT data comparison region they're pretty good but the problem is when you go to downscaling like a winter my results is the one meter resolution there so we don't have a data compare that's why we don't know the temperature assimilation we get the clarification correctly or something that's only the model result so recently we're working on an all-star company all-star company so they have been making like a three region measurement they got a control area when they put a winter measurement temperature, humidity so they already give us data but the problem this data is before we put a winter my in you know this is like regional scale so compare come out pretty good but the question come out to us after they put a winter my into system how they change it so we have no data so I saw the Woosaw group Anthony's group they get DOE funding they will put like a moring into the system so they will be measured temperature over there but we really want to wait see what's happened after they put a winter my we don't have a data yet we don't compare yet that's a very good question that's why you don't know what a model correct so now we just make a technology develop but that's ground true or not we don't know one last question okay comment one comment is that regarding ground tools we have a unique moment now if we do measurements now before the turbines are in we can do it after and then let me give us a very good basis for that I think that's up to maybe the developers and bone to focus that Jen you mentioned that you use data simulation in your modeling how do you do that when you know now make changes you have data simulation you simulate the situation as it is now historically and then you put in turbines and what happens then with the data simulation when you turn my model we don't do data simulation anymore that's the next model wrong we run a region the model and the whole domain you go to God's chain you put everything there so that's how the data simulation so once you have a similar when you do the winter my we use the next in boundary we get a next in boundary I just put a next in boundary there to drive it one way next thing we didn't do the two way next thing yet the one way next thing that's why the no boundary change with time because that's an unsurgical model so you can you don't need to have an interpretation just I know you have a mic it's an unsurgical model so you don't need that out of the pool you put it there you can run but then importantly you want to make sure your running period is not too long you don't want to have water cut to the boundary that's why everything changes because small scary things because if you have a small larger one way next thing most important internal time internal way so when the internal way propagation touch your boundary so they can your boundary can be changes so then you can get energy accumulation over there because scary different when you resolution high your result internal way why we're assuming causing probably not resolved that's why we run the model we have to make sure you know initial condition make sure the time we running so you want to chapel check that it really affect your boundary now if a fact boundary stop you have to restart again because that's why yeah that's good interesting discussion but I think we're going to need to move on and we can come back to this if we have some time at the end okay so we're going to hear about a different modeling structure or framework might D.H.I. and it'll be from Olli Peterson is the chief engineer the ports and ports and offshore technology the Danish hydraulic institute and Tom Johnson chief operating officer at the Danish hydraulic institute. Thank you for inviting us here being here this morning I'm not sure I dare say much we heard now Dr. Chin here he's a hard man to follow here and then we all heard about all these details Glenn you have presented amazing amount of details of how complicated this system is so we come here with the models and it is even if it's very very complicated and very advanced we think I don't think it matches anything in reality so it is a simplification so that's I want to say that up front here so let's see why are we here the very specific reason is that we have been doing two studies one historic study for bone looking at accumulated impact of the Massachusetts Rhode Island area that's completed and reported and we have an ongoing study right now looking at the whole U.S. east coast that's very specific reason and we will try and develop discuss here today what we have learned from these two studies and try and put that forward another reason is that we think this discussion about accumulative impacts is very important for the industry and for the society and it is a discussion that often falls between jazz developers they don't require they have to their own projects to look for and really cares about these accumulative impacts but I think it is important and it will be an issue in the future that may affect how we develop offshore wind in the future so that's why we chose to come here and I think it's a very very good initiative that you're taking just a few words about who is we are a little bit new in the street here in U.S. so I can hear all of you you know each other very well the entire we are in based in Denmark we have about 1000 people working with water we are like a private research institution that also do commercial you have similar institutions here in the U.S. we have offices around the world also here in the U.S. in Denmark in Portland Tom here is chief officer in the U.S. we have been around for about 50 years and we have worked with waters and we work do studies we don't do design we don't do but it's natural water is the key and another key factor for us that is numerical modeling that has been kind of our legacy we do projects and we ought to do about 25% of our activities research and another 25% is our software we settle this commercial mic software that we're using here so let's see well we have been in the offshore wind business in many years that was the first offshore wind park in the world we were part of that in 1991 about 5 megawatts and that was a revolution at that time so we supported that one and was part of the research project behind and today we are now up to we have supported 25 gigawatt of realized projects and we are still supporting 130 gigawatt of coming projects we are involved in we say 80% of all commissioned offshore projects in the world and we are also doing a lot of say research projects related to offshore wind let's see if this can come up and what are we doing for offshore wind made ocean conditions waves hydrodynamics as we are discussing today we are looking supporting scour, cabling all this kind of water things sediment transport is part of it and we also do ecology biodynamics EIAs and some special things is noise noise for EIA and also bird detection we have some bird detection systems that can basically stop wind turbines when something comes flying past as I said modeling has been key it's part of nearly all our projects one way or the other and we have this mic suite that we are using here which is a well recognized standard in the coastal and ocean engineering and today we will use two of these models that's a wave model that looks at waves and another one is our flow model it's called mic tree 3D so they are the key tools that we will employ here and have employed in the projects this we have talked about all day just for someone has listened that the accumulate impact that we look at these things this is mostly the wind wave effects and how that affects waves how that affects the currents we look at drag from the foundations and from the towers and from the scour protection and how that affects the flows around we will not look at cables or new habitats but we have the continuation in the bone study we have done it goes the wave further down and look at the migrating of larvae or scallops and how they change as a consequence of say impact from the offshore wind turbines so today we will not go into that in much detail this is the same again the impacts and say what we learned from the study the first bone study was that initially we thought that it was the towers that were an important part the mixing and the drag on these foundations directly in the water that must be a big impact but it seems it's not it is really the wind the wind break and the wind energy reduction by the offshore farms that is a big factor and that affects the waves they will not grow as fast or they will decay faster it affects the currents because they drag the currents so that is really a big one I'll show you why later and then of course we have the drag and mixing induced from the foundations directly whether it's monopiles or it's jacket structures they are the ones there is a paper by Corina longer list of more impacts on temperature and heat exchange on other things and we have not looked at these things if we take the one of the effects on the foundations as Jen discussed the flow around these structures is very complicated the boundary layer is about 2-3 cm thick so I think even with a 1 meter resolution there is still a lot of things going on there that is important so it's very difficult to resolve actually these flows and if we do it in a 2-course mess we overestimate the forces we have done that many times we can easily get 10 times the drag if we don't resolve properly so what we do here is that we make an empirical model drag on a cylinder structure that is kind of a standard engineering exercise also turbulence induced by a structure it's well known so we have this input as a parameterization such that we assure that the drag induced by that structure is correct as we can get it and it also includes the mixing we have done some experiments they are referenced here earlier where we looked at mixing induced by stratified flow by these structures so we can put that into a formula that can calculate the effect on the flow by these structures the same for the waves I can't remember if I said no the same goes for the waves wave interaction with a cylinder structure in the ocean that is something you can write many PhDs about without knowing everything but we try to do a simplification where we look at basically what they call the dynamic model of the waves and then we could boil that down to some empirical relations that tells us how much of the wave is transmitted through the structure how much is reflected and that gives us this reduction in wave height due to the presence of structures inside the water that's also built into the models and I say that would be sub grid so our grids are not one meter they may be larger but we try to make such that we have one structure within each grid cells that gives us a good control of how these things they work next is the effect of the wind waves the first study we did we took a simplified approach and we said okay the effect of the wind wave is inside the footprint of the wind farm that has been discussed and we have now taken that out and improved it so what we do now is that we use a system called PiWake that's the one they use for resource assessment of wind farm so that is accurate I'll tell you because that's money but we use the same the same feature basically it takes each turbine it calculates say what is the incoming wind what is the wind production and then it calculates the wave and empirical relations for the wave and then we take all the other turbines how that wave come in and maybe reduce the incoming wind to that turbine which is downstream so that last turbine will get much less wind than the first one and it will also calculate downstream the wind farm how are all these waves combining and going downstream that's up in hop height that's now today in 125 meter above the sea bed so that has not really much to do with what's going on at the sea surface so what we do is that we use this called Francis model which basically takes and we can transform the reduced wind speed in hop height down to the sea surface because that transformation is not straightforward it depends on the weather it depends on the stability of the atmosphere and that makes this thing very site specific on US west coast whether it's stable normally so that has one impact on how much of the reduced wind stress will come down to the surface in the east coast in the winter it's convective dominated score so these waves they mix up very quickly and it also has an impact on how strongly the sea surface impacts we take that into account and then we do for example you can see these pictures here they are the wind speed calculated for I think this one is empire wind and the other ones in new york bite we have them for all the lease areas calculated and you can see an example of how big is the impact we calculate this picture every hour for the whole period that we are simulating so we have varying wind direction, varying humidity conditions and get a good measure of how the sea surface is impacted and it takes nearly as long to calculate these ones as it does to calculate the whole 3D model because of this yeah I think this one can move if I'm lucky here this is just an example you can see yeah this is a little bit artificial example you can see how the impact on the stress it changes with time so that's it let's go here now to the real world as I said we did the first study that's the mesh on the here that's the first study where we set up the model here what we do is set up a very specific model try and do it as accurate as possible just like Jen is doing then we implement the wind turbines and then we look at what is the changes that is the way we work as engineers the next model that's the one that's ongoing now is this one it covers the whole area from Nova Scotia down to Florida basically and has all the leases inside so it's a more heavy-duty approach but we think we have learned a lot with this let us see here if we go down a bit here yeah so this is the way we work we develop this validated baseline have that as good as we can put in the turbines different scenarios and then we simulate here a historic period which is I think we have contracted up to one to three years it's more say cost of computing time that is really the issue here when we do design wind turbines we do nearly the same exercise as the baseline and then we do 40 years of simulations hourly to get all the statistics right but for this purpose here we started with say one to three years we do it with a high dynamic model 3D model that has temperature, stratification, flows all important stuff and we do it with a wave model that calculates basically wave spectra also on the same grid as I said we are in the first study we touch have some downstream effect on fish and larvae this is the way we calibrate the model we look at each parameter this is water levels we have measurements they are shown on the map here just a few examples here we do time series calculate these scatter plots which show measured on the axis here and the model up here and then we can see if they follow the straight line here everything is good and if there is a lot of scatter then well that's the uncertainty when we do that for I think we have 20 stations here along the coast and we do it for typically for one year where we use that for calibration the next one that is for currents here that is up in New York by that these two stations and I said have two high quality light up voice with also ADCP that we have used and we have used all of us this measurements and a lot of measurements from developers covering pioneer we also used and observers observatory but still if you look at current observations they are scarce they are nearly nothing to have a good coverage of current measurements in the same period that is a dream so we take all we can get our hands on so that's also why if we can get someone to collect some more current measurements that will be important yeah and then if you look at this this is time series measured and modeled these are directions this is the current speed and then is the direction upward so we can see there are two little bit dominant directions here in this and this they are the tides but they are not very strong in New York Byte and these are current roses is measured and black or gray is from the model and I would say for example this the quality of this plot here that is typical for what we get for current measurements this is not an exact science it is nothing there is a lot of uncertainty if we take the next these are for waves waves are a little bit easier so you can see the match is better but still wave roses significant wave height how it fits distributions we also do the same for wave periods and other wave parameters and for waves there are many stations I think we have more than 20 or 30 stations where we look at periods about say one year and calibrate all over to get a good idea of the representation of the model okay but now we have a baseline that we think is the best or is a good representation of what happens in real life but as I say if Glenn looks at it I'm sure he can point his finger to many places say this here is not what I know but there is life and the way we quantify high dynamic impacts is that I said we implement these turbines in different configurations different configurations and different strengths we also for each turbine we have this operation curve they are caught in with 3 meter per second cut out 25 meter per second so what is really important for the wind turbine impact that's not the extreme situations that is this normal operation situation because that's where the wind turbines they operate and that's when they don't operate they have minor effects on anything these are just very few examples there if you look in the report you can see all the details I didn't want to take them up here but for example these are a 75 percentile difference for this is for currents depth average currents where we look at different scenarios I think scenario two is the one with full build out of the Tom he can remember all these things with full build out for the Rhode Island Massachusetts and you can see the impacts here or the kind of what is the say the change of this the current speeds and they are here for current speeds they are within say 10 percent that is I don't remember if I have waves also no so if we look at waves it's also it's below 10 percent most of the time it's not zero there is an impact but it's about that magnitude yes Tom you will say a little bit about the next because who cares about waves and currents no one ask anyone they care about are my fish gone where are the scallops I need to catch that's what really concerns people are my beets disappearing so you will move on when I ask so just very briefly we are going to go through some of the how we did the agent based modeling we use the super agent methodology because when you look at the fecundity of scallops or flounder or silver hape you couldn't do every egg and model it so we basically collapse these millions of eggs per spawning season into a number of super agents and then follow those super agents as they were dispersed it reduces the computational load and but we can still monitor and update them over time next so the the three species that we did in the first study that was completed in 2021 was this an agent based model or ABM of the sea scallop larvae silver hape and summer flounder and we took those customized ABM templates and then ran them through the hydrodynamic model and then what we were looking at basically was the differences in where these larvae settled and when you look at the graphic on the right that is for summer flounder summer flounder were a little bit different than the sea scallop and silver hape larvae because they had a certain motility and would sense basically egg tides and flood tides and would swim towards the shore at a certain development stage so that's why you see the differences are mostly in shore next the conceptualization basically this is the whole reason you do these agent based models how these were all conceptualized and built are based on these papers that are talked about here in this slide they're just settlement rate and population abundance how do you parameterize that what's the settlement of probability and basically what is the substrate material and the environmental variables that allow the larvae to survive the dispersal patterns and recruitment basically in different synced areas and their swimming speeds and then vertical migration patterns of larvae basically for function of daylight and tidal conditions so all those things are built into these templates and basically parameterized based on observations from experts for each of the different species next and then just to give you a flavor of what we found there were basically determined oceanic responses for sea scallops there was a shift in settlement this is a full build out with 15 megawatt wind turbines in the Massachusetts Rhode Island area we had basically four scenarios the one that has the biggest impact because they're the biggest turbines and so they reduce the wind speed the most and they have the biggest foundations sticking through the water column so we chose that one to present here but basically it shows a shift based to the southwest of the offshore wind farm build up area there's discernible or notable increases south of block island that's the blue east of Long Island and then there's some distinct areas of decrease which is south of Martha's Vineyard and to some degree in the Nantucket Shoals so this is a very very brief review of how we do our agent based modeling but these are all integrated models in the mic system I know someone said something about open source this morning and we sell our software but for the bone project everybody should know if you are investigating anything that has to do with these two projects following on for I think five years you can get a hold of the models so we have got that in the contract so that deals with the open source issue perhaps deals with the open source issue where the models will be made available to consultants to bone or people that want to review our models through the bone studies next slide so we also have to acknowledge boom this is one of the mandatory slides that we have to put in these are our contract numbers and some of our sponsors are sitting here in the room today so thank you very much we appreciate your support okay thank you questions yes very nice talks very very informative and I'm really curious about the super agent modeling there one of the things I notice you said that area for scenario four with the buildup of the Scalaplarve there was that kind of Southwest oriented local maxima there that went up to Block Island was that overlaying the Buried River Channel there that goes up through Cox's ledge by the way I'm obsessed by that channel I don't know Glenn I'm sorry to say that that's outside of my knowledge of that of that area so we'd have to go back because it took me a number of years to realize that when we were having the fishing vessels collect CTD profiles for us there was this huge concentration right along that that that little depression there and it turns out that trapped a lot of organic matter because that was a river bed during the Ice Age when sea level was much lower for our modeling it would be it would be a deficit in current speed most likely that would cause more settlement there than in another place so that's we were looking basically at the differences in the settlement of these larvae and so what we found was when you when you look at the current patterns and how they changed it's pretty much overlays where the changes are excuse me where the changes are in the settlement patterns and also that channel actually is an important onshore offshore seasonal migration pathway for different species monkfish they catch with gillnets along the bottom there so I had never realized how important that feature was there but the fishing community I guess had three or four hundred years to work this out yes please nice talk a couple questions you said current and waves are not important where they are driver the driver of the Asians based on modeling so I'm curious about the subgroup effects that you mentioned that you say use energy relationship to parameterize the effects of the structure on the flow field so can you elaborate that it's the work of the drag force that we feed into the model so that gives a resistance in the model in that cell then we say the work of the drag force that gives us say the change in the input to turbulence so is your turbulence a scheme also affected by the structures it's affected by structure and also by the stratification the closure the turbulence a scheme yes it's affected there's an input into that from the production of turbulence around that structure so what's the typical resolution for your structures it's about one kilometer one kilometer of your but then you have the subgroup effects that you feed into that into that cell we feed that extra turbulence and also that extra resistance how accurate is that it's pretty accurate if we do comparison to experiments it's spot on because that's the way it's calculated so it's basically to calculate the drag ratio for a cylinder structure that is pretty accurate if you try to calculate the drag I saw you cited several CFD models in our papers so have you compared your model with that CFD model so we don't know we used the CFD and we used some experiments we did a lot of experiments when we did the femur bridge for say mixing induced by structures in stratified flows because no one knows what that is but we did a lot of experiments and then we also did a lot of CFD calculations of that kind of problem and out of that came the calibration of these drag relations it's more since formula you can say it's a kind of steady flows so it's accurate because we force it to be accurate but you cannot go 20 meter downstream the turbine and see the variations that change you for example because it's all into this pixel because we need to both model say the details have the correct impact of the structure but we also need to model more than one year in an area that is huge so it's to compromise how should we do that it's not possible for us to do a CFD model of every single turbine and calculate that for more than 20 seconds absolutely that's just curious about how you parameterize that so called subgrade mixing subgrade effects using energy principles now there was some there was some papers cited you can go back and look you know I had a comment for scholar about the model so have you considered any behaviors because scuba larvae they have observation show semi-diana and diana behavior on the mix layer when it's swanning so they can back reach in the mix layer two times per day or sometimes one times per day if you include behaviors you see the settle down can be completely different so we do consider we do the diana behavior and semi-diana behavior we don't know which ones are correct both observation found that so then you look because migration in the water can mix layer so then after 40 days settle down they can be completely different pattern yeah the answer is yes we take that into account I was trying to let the MIDI ask questions first so this is a bit of a challenging question I think we have to respect either the modeling teams as a developer we have to develop our permitting documents and consider information like this and what as a non oceanographer and non modeler I'm hearing what you're having to say and seeing opposing results right from the models and that is a bit concerning and so I guess two questions one question for you both is can you discuss differing results and then second just a comment to the committee as you're developing the report to please consider and advise folks like myself and regulators how we interpret this variability because this uncertainty does I think really some regulatory challenges for us that concerns us and we obviously want good science that's validated but I don't know how to deal with this conflicting information thank you just a caution this is not like structural engineering where you can do a calculation ask three people and they'll get nearly the same this is still development this is very new science coming up and it's very very complicated because there's so much uncertainty in the real world Glenn will know that everyone will know that so that is part of the background why we get different results so we use slightly different methods and then we get different results so I'm not sure we can promise anyone that we can come up with something that is completely consistent where you can go anywhere and get that you need to have certain knowledge certain insights of someone to go in and make it but I see this opportunity here and also what we do otherwise as an effort to try and converge things and exactly to get results that are kind of agreed that we can everyone regulators developer can say okay this is the ballpark we're talking about because I have the same feeling as you have that today if I look in one paper the world will go upside down if we build this and in another paper nothing will happen and where are we in between that and you can say at least that's what I try to is to try and find sensible numbers that are in the ballpark maybe not within 10 decimals but still something that's in the ballpark and find realistic numbers but it's not easy sorry okay I think Josh and then Richard yeah this is a I guess kind of a follow up to all the the modelers and something that I wrestle with it you're showing and this is I think related to the point that Laura just raised is there a way you've done validation both groups so far and I know there's a third one to come have shown validation is that what's learned through the validation is that accounted for in the derived fields that are shown that the groups are shown or is there a way to include that so that you can understand the derived forms or the images don't show the uncertainty so maybe there's a way to address the concern raised before and I don't know if that's possible with the validation that's done but I think it would be helpful to the community to understand what the uncertainty is in these fields given what you know about the underlying data that went into the calculation of those fields can I answer that so I have two things one that's your responsibility that is that we need more data it's really crucial that we get more data for calibration for validation it is very important I'll just respond to that really quickly and just say I would put any other place on the planet up against our Min Atlantic as a place to look for validation data there's not many places in the world that have more Glenn talked about all the different systems that are in the place and they don't have the entire coverage of the model which is why we need the models there's a HF radar field that provides hourly current since 2007 at every 6 kilometers so there are data out there so I think if we're going to do something like this this is a great place to do it but it has another one that's it's also one of the most complicated places so we need more data reaching the model with the quota data it has the 10 years so for the block island side just in the Nantucket block island they get a sweet quota there we make an 80 year comparison but it really depends on how you compare for tidal simulation the model and the position match the wordware but for low frequency really question so we can get a very good comparison for monthly averaging but then you do like an hourly comparison really tough because the quota they have an uncertainty mostly not for speed mostly for the direction because the quota measurements the average uncertainty for direction is about 20 degree but sometimes if you look recently in the Radical University publishing quota data the whole region so you can see a lot on the short big region uncertainty is most 80 degree 80 and 100 degree angle was a short big region but in the near short region long island side region if you look at the map I have the data I can show you long island region is a pretty good measurement but you will call it the goal of shore the signal error bus is really big so you have a very hard to compare so when we do the comparison we choose the whole measurement one year we choose the high accuracy data they have a certain number there you compare the subtitle and the title current they come out really good but however you have to consider uncertainty in the measurement but the quota is hard to compare most of the good data comparison is more in data the more in data because the uncertainty is really small you can get a good comparison I don't want to defray the conversation I did my PHD on HF radar I am very familiar with it I was making a comment that you all showed validation and I think there is an opportunity to take what you learned from that validation with whatever data you had and actually put it into the results here so we know if velocity has a certain uncertainty in comparison to whatever data you chose to validate the model against how does that impact where larvae might go in the model projection that's just the suggestion I think that would be very helpful we can have conversations about which data sets are good or bad for validation but when you chose the data set you validated against and you got some numbers so how can we take that and put it into the file they get so many ADCP close you can see more than 10-year data cross-region results show a big region so we do compare we know the uncertainty but interestingly we can send you the comparison they also intrude sometimes the model depends on how you model if you get a simulation you get a very good comparison sometimes you feel the simulation you don't get a very good comparison but in the shallow region you have to remove the ties but either comparison that's pretty good I'm pretty sure you see that the comparison was pretty good okay I think did you have a response to that Richard and Christina there was one more answer that was about the uncertainty when we do these design studies it's a little bit easier you can say modeling wise to get accurate results but there we do 40 years typically and we do a lot of effort to quantify uncertainty because that goes into design and money it's also important as it is here so it's something we do but it's not straightforward to do I think Richard and then Christina so one thing that I'm curious about is how we compare between models based on what we see of the spatial extent of the outcome sort of the model run so in Chen's example that was just the project 501 Vineyard Wind correct? what we saw of your project was basically the model runs for project 501 Vineyard Wind project what type? for scalps, for distribution of scalps I don't get a question sorry sorry I didn't get a question so the project you use the 100 turbines that was basically Vineyard Wind no the wind tide because it's a nesting model we run a global model we're reaching the model reaching the model comes from a handcast but you were not modeling the full build out for all the projects south of the Vineyard and the Nantucket no I just saw for the one 100 yeah whereas what we saw from y'all was the full build out yeah that was crossing areas it's kind of hard to compare the results of those two and I think some of us are probably curious about how you see the results of a single turbine you can't extrapolate that to a whole project or obviously so you can expand out to the whole a project like 501 or Vineyard Wind and that has an effect but I'm really curious about what the overall effect is going to be from the full build out from yours but do you have any chance what you saw with 501? that was one of our scenarios I know it was one of the scenarios right now? but it's in our report that would be the I think someone picked up the difference in the distribution of scallops that's very different in change results than in yours it could simply be the spatial scale of the model you know the 501 no key usual difference separation scale because when you put the wind turbine into a system separation scale between the turbine is critically important so now the industry agree they have one necromine separation scale when we do the bound project of 2014 the separation scale is a fine necromine so we consider whole region but only put 135 turbine into a system but separation scale separation scale is a larger influence is completely different for separation scale smaller so they consider about we get 100 wind turbines just in one design the wind the small area put 100 separation scale is the one necromine if you put a whole region it is a separate scale the influence can be different I understand that the full build out may look very different than your results I think Christina we can come back to your question unless it's a quick question that's scallops I'm concerned about running out of time I want to give York a chance to tell us about a third model DELF 3D York is a senior researcher and advisor in hydraulic engineering at DELTARIS and please tell us about DELF 3D I'll just open my presentation while everybody's going for a body break and getting some water a break is after your talk so they're not excused from the classroom right now everybody's excusing themselves explicitly concerned I want to compliment our everyone I'm visible let's start then model number three has often been referred to in the previous talks also commonly known as DELF 3D in this case now we'll talk a bit about the same topics that my predecessors talked about using this modeling suite to assess ecosystem effects of offshore wind installation so to tell you a little bit about DELTARIS I think we have a rather similar company profile as DHI we are also an independent institute for applied research in the field of water subsurface and infrastructure and we do a lot of offshore wind related work together with both universities but also with the industry so for example the nice photo you see in the background of a turbine getting attached with a very big wave is from a physical model that's performed in our delta flume within a project consisting of over 20 consortium partners dedicated to develop guidelines for sky protection methods culminating in a broad industry supported handbook the mission of DELTARIS is enabling delta life and offshore winds of course vital and I think the past 10-20 years we're all dedicated to making offshore winds affordable we're more or less there now so the challenges for the future are in upskating are in multi-use and of course also in ecosystem impact so to say a little bit more about what we do in offshore wind it's consisting of all these topics not limited to so for example we do also met ocean studies we have geotechnical backgrounds swell corrosion and water replenishment that's also something we do every now and then for Bowen and of course one of the bigger topics is ecological impact both positive and negative and in that framework we quite often hear terms like nature inclusive design or net positive impact so nature inclusive design is really to integrate your design in such a way that you can alleviate pressure on the ecosystem and depending on how you do it you may even strive for achieving a net positive impact so you leave the ecosystem in a better shape than you found it and of course that's all in the eye of the world but those are all topics at the moment so when we talk about nature inclusive design I'd like to sketch the framework before going on to DEL3D and its capabilities because of course ecological impact already starts with the installation I don't know if you ever had the privilege to be witness of a pilot installation I only had that in a physical scale model experiment but it's very very noisy in wildlife marine life is impacted by the installation so you want to achieve more noise mitigation or silent installation techniques for example as a way of mitigating impact on the ecosystem then once your pile is there then we see at the moment that with scout protection installed you create new habitat and that results into an enrichment of marine life around foundation structures that can go of course on a local scale so per foundation but that accumulates over an entire wind farm you need to take into account of course the entire system we have cables that emit radiation and heat that have an impact on the environment in certain offshore wind development areas you also have migrating sand waves that could lead to clogging of the pore space you created so it's an entire system talking about an entire system of course the turbines they impact also the hydrodynamics by creating more turbulence realizing more mixing all these things that we have already talked about but it's accumulating of course on the scale of an entire basin within the monopile of course microclimate and bringing all of that together in an integrated fashion where you combine modeling monitoring to establish your impact that's what we mean with this nature inclusive design for offshore wind farms so I will now talk a little bit more about hydrodynamic modeling in general I'd like to sketch a framework for the approach and go into a bit more details of DEL3D so outlying its base assumptions and limitations and from those assumptions I will show you how we have applied this model to assess impact of offshore wind development to give you an idea of what you can do with it but also of course on what you cannot yet do with it and that's equally important so of course there are various types of models that you can utilize to assess impact of offshore wind so far we have mainly talked about process based numerical models but of course there's physical models as well numerical models but also more simple engineering tools and of course they're depending on what you want and not all models are equally fit for purpose and of course we focus now on the numerical model approaches and there you can also choose from different flavors where you depending on the complexity and detail that you want to layer you can make similar choices so for example we have this 1D network models that you could use to model rivers or maybe even tidal channels going into more complex 2D 3D area models and we talk about tidal inlets seas offshore wind farms or even more detail more complexity local high resolution CFD model and that's typically on the scale of single structures and the actualization of a CFD simulation that was used to assess the impact of a slamming wave on the loads in the secondary steel structure that's the level of detail another thing that has not really been mentioned today or at least implicitly but a model is a tool and it should therefore be fit for purpose what do I mean with that well if you try to drive a screw into the wall with a hammer you're not doing yourself a big favor for a job so you always need to ask yourself what do I want to model and what is the level of complexity required to achieve my goals and that means that when you can go simple go simple and if you have to go complex then you have to go complex right so it's different flavors what do I mean with that we'll get there so on to Dell 3D Dell 3D is a multi-dimensional hydromorphodynamic simulation program that can calculate non-steady flow and transport phenomena resulting from tidal and meteorological forcing that's a mouthful but it means that it is very well suited to model for example tidal in its estuaries waves morphodynamic processes I used it myself to model a mangrove forest but I also used it to model bar dynamics in the surf sauna that was only during my student time it's very versatile and it can do a lot it makes use of curvilinear grids in combination with unstructured elements so it uses the best of both worlds in terms of flexibility but also in terms of formants talking about computational speed and accuracy a very nice example where we combine curvilinear and have a good layout in tidal channels with unstructured grids to combine different parts because if you want to do this with only curvilinear you're going to have a very ugly grid so here we combine it with unstructured elements to get a very nice looking numerical grid that also leads to good performance it makes use of the shallow water assumption and I think most of the models that have been discussed here do that means that we assume that one of the three dimensions is much smaller of scale than the other two so the depth is much smaller than the horizontal scale that's what you see here in reality we talk about water depths of 30, 40, 50 meters in wind farms and we talk about horizontal scales of kilometers of course your vertical dimension is much smaller than your horizontal dimension but it comes also with an hydrostatic pressure assumption right so in the vertical dimension you do not solve the full momentum equation you solve a hydrostatic pressure equation so that also means that you do not explicitly model vertical acceleration your vertical acceleration is assumed relatively small compared to gravitational acceleration so that means in DelphiD vertical velocities are computed using continuity relation it makes use of a Boussineski approximation so the effect of variable density is only considered in terms of horizontal pressure gradient so vertical variability in density is taken into account by the model and vertical mixing is computed making use of diffusion eddy diffusivity and eddy viscosity coefficients but in terms of the impact of density variations on the pressure it's only taken into account in horizontal pressure gradient in terms and last but not least it uses Reynolds averaging for turbulent fluctuations so that means that you resolve for your mean flow velocities and you take model schematization for your time average part so you make a decomposition into a mean and a time average part and then the model makes use of an eddy viscosity concept where the impact of turbulence is modeled as an eddy viscosity and as an eddy diffusivity and DelphiD also makes an anisotropy in the turbulence which means of course that the horizontal eddy viscosity are typically much larger than the vertical eddy viscosity so that means that vertical mixing processes are very well represented in model but on a mid too far field skill so not on very very near field skill so that's good to realize here so it has a bottom boundary and a free surface boundary both an impermeability boundary kinematic and a free surface at both free surface and a bed and the momentum boundary condition of bed shear stress at the bed and wind shear at the free surface now of course offshore you do not have only flows you also have waves and DelphiD also explicitly takes into account wave current interaction where the wave processes are modeled with a separate model that is coupled to the flow module which is called S1 simulating waves approaching the shore and these wave processes are accounted for in a wave average manner so your wave induced forces they are imposed as gradients in your radiation stress and to account for vertical non-uniformity in those velocities it makes use of a generalized Lagrangian mean method and it does affect the addition of bed shear stress component so it's a high level of detail and of course what we know or we have seen figures like this and so we know that in offshore wind areas in seas in general there can be sediment transport and we know that turbines have an impact on sediment transport and you can imagine that if you have sediment concentration in your water column that may have an impact on the ecology by simply determining how much light can penetrate through the water column so it's quite important that your sediment transports are also taken into account in the computation so DEL3D computes both bed load and suspended load for both non-cohesive and cohesive sediments and it can also do morphological updating if needed now the flow module can be coupled to a water quality model and that can also be applied as a process based model so it can be applied in a more passive way so that for example nutrients or pollutants are modeled as passive tracers so they are then affected by the flow but you can also use it in a more let's say complex manner where you take also all the various processes that are outlined here into account are coupled in an online manner so that means that you can simultaneously with your flow and wave computations and with the vertical mixing of your water column also all these processes are considered we are now looking at the chain of effects associated with not only wind developments but coastal seas in general factors, human pressures for the climate discharge, shunt mining and there somewhere in between comes offshore wind below we look at the ecosystem and all the various interlinks between all the processes there and of course we know that offshore wind it has a direct impact on current waves and wind and maybe a slightly less direct impact on the bed and all these processes they also influence each other so that means that you can already draw out the lines where you expect there to be an influence on the ecosystem and this is the way that we do it so we go from the environment towards the ecosystem so that's called a bottom up approach and we work together with partners who start on the other end of the spectrum so with the birds and mammals and they work that's called a bottom I have top down approach and somewhere they have to meet right, somewhere they have to meet and they are complete so we know that there are many different processes acting on many different lengths and time scales we have on the scale of an entire history we have stratification due to density differences related to fresh water and saline water but also of course related to temperature then on the scale of a wind farm or of singular turbines we know that they lead to differences in mixing so they lead to increased sediment transports around the base so you have different suspended metric concentrations in the wake of the turbines and the mixing can negate the impact of stratification so there's a lot of things going on and of course very locally we also have maybe the formation of a new ecosystem due to the hard substrate that's introduced in the area and due to the structure itself so we want to quantify all that in one single model but it also in every means you have to make choices because there is so much variation between the length and time scales if you want to capture that in one single model and explicitly resolve everything you need a very very good supercomputer and a lot of patience so you need to make choices I'd like to show an example of how we did that this is in the WOSEP project that I referred to earlier it stands for wind at sea ecological program and it's a large scale research project funded by the Dutch government to assess the impact of large scale of wind developments in the North Sea this model that you see on the right is the Dutch continental shelf model and it's a model of the entire North Sea basin it's a 3D model with a finest grid resolution I mean it varies over the model but with the finest resolution of roughly half a nautical mile it can calculate temperature and salinity stratification and it does so quite well as you can see in this figure the water temperature for example is quite close to what is measured it can also calculate fine sediment concentration so here you see for example the difference between the summer surface mud concentration and the winter surface mud concentration so you see there's very clear seasonality fine sediment concentration predicted by the model and it also being coupled to the water quality module it also is capable of modeling primary production and here you see a comparison of the calibrated model with measurements performed I think it was at Nordwijk in front of the Dutch coast it then makes use of dynamic energy budgets to assess the impact on wildlife so that means that for different umbrella species we can assess what is going to happen if you go for a large scale of your wind development in the region one thing that still needs to be implemented is a direct coupling so that's one of the shortcomings of the model at the moment and it's being worked on this year so that's a development step for the present year another development step for this year is to incorporate zooplankton and of course we want to reduce the gap between the bottom-up approach and the top-down approach another very important aspect that has been discussed already is the parameterization of the foundations because of course you can imagine with resolution of half a knot we do not explicitly model the foundations we use a similar approach as our colleagues from DHI we parameterize the impact of the foundations as track coefficient but that involves a very direct coupling of course between very local processes and large scale processes and one thing we do here as well is that there's a coupling between scales is highly relevant you have these very complex flow phenomena around the wind turbine and that's in the order of centimeters to meters so you need a very fine grid resolution to capture this accurately whereas of course on a large scale we talk about kilometers and that never matches if you want to make a prediction of the impact over multiple years you don't have the computational power to do that on a very small scale so especially if you want to model the impact of offshore wind development on an entire basis which you can see in the right so you want to have good insight into all these small scale processes what they do with salinity mixing, with temperature mixing so with your stratification but also with your suspended sediment concentrations in the wake of the foundation so for that we use a more detailed local model as a research tool so here we see the results of a CFD simulation for example to get the correct relations for a parameterization and to get the right impact it's very similar to what our colleagues from BHI does and there's the consistency between all the model approaches and we compare it with actual field data so we supplemented with actual field measurements so this is from a recent campaign performed last year and here you see for example in the wake of a monopile that there are horizontal gradients in both temperature and salinity in the wake of the pile so it's also very relevant to take those impacts into account in your parameterization so it's not just the drag coefficient but it also has an impact on your stratification but also in your suspended sediment concentration and these need to be parameterized a lot so you have all these puzzle pieces wind, waste, current, sediments nutrients, light, temperature see that your foundations and maybe one or two unknowns you don't need to have all those pieces in place to solve the question of what the impact of offshore wind development can be for example here we also see an image where you do not have all the pieces available but still you can see that this is a tree maybe somebody knows exactly what kind of tree this is of course if you want to know who is walking next to the person in front of the tree you need more information but with the information we have we can already see that there's probably somebody walking next to that person so you don't need all the pieces to make useful predictions and that's the way I think we all do it now that we accept that the model is not perfect but it's good enough, it fits for purpose so you can focus your efforts both on model development and application, right, the DEL-3D model it's also not yet complete it doesn't incorporate explicitly the effect of wind flakes it doesn't incorporate to a plankton but that doesn't mean that we cannot use it to make useful predictions at the moment by following this scenario based approach that DHI showed as well and for example within the WOSA project we looked at a couple of scenarios unexpected developments but also on for example an extreme upscaling scenario where we fill almost the entire North Sea basin with offshore windparks and if you compare that to a reference scenario without any turbines for example and you validated that school word it gives a very good impression on the impact of different scales of offshore wind development and that also shows that scale does matter so one windpark may not do that much but 20 windparks do a lot and the North Sea is of course a special case it's kind of like a bathtub so there is not much room to develop maybe in the US coast it's a bit different because you have the Atlantic Ocean adjacent to your developments but still a scale matters that's one of the important messages here so that also means that to know what happens or if you want to know what's going to happen at the Nantucket Shoals I'd say it's also a good idea to take it to account all the other wind farm developments that are going to happen along the US coast simply because scale matters in the North Sea we see that the impacts vary per region and it really depends on the local dynamics and so in the Central North Sea we see that this stratification is something that is dominant in the German Bight which is a very complex area and suspended matter is dominant we see that you have we know from that area that there are a lot of fine sediments there so it stands the reason that offshore wind development in that area has the largest impact or on suspended matter on the English coast and the Watern Coast we see that there are relatively minor effects of the upscaling in the Rhine-Rofi area where Rofi you've seen the term before in one of the previous presentations stands for region of freshwater influence and we have the Rhine River which has a huge impact along the entire Dutch coast there offshore wind has mostly an impact on suspended matter transport it has an impact on these stratifications so it leads to different suspended matter transports and on the Darger Bank so far we noticed that the impact is relatively minor to make the final step to an application at the Nantucket Shoals as our colleagues we also have a model of the greater area this one is the Massachusetts Bay Model which was developed for the Massachusetts Water Resource Authority to assess the impact of wastewater on recirculation in the Bay so they have to make yearly predictions showing that what they do is acceptable so we have a local very refined grid and it's just a little bit more south of it is the Nantucket Shoals but of course that means you can do a refinement in the area of interest that's always something that's possible because the offshore boundaries are very well established and the model has been validated with available data of the area and it is already equipped with a full water quality model so if the impact also plankton is implemented in the model as we have it now that means that you have a rather direct link with the North Atlantic right wheel if you can model the impact of offshore wind development on zooplankton relatively I'm not going to say easy but a relatively straightforward coupling to what may happen or what the impact could be on the habitat of the North Atlantic right wheel so to kick up with a couple of conclusions I hope I stay roughly within time the DEL3D modeling suite is I think very capable of assessing the impact of offshore wind development on the environment it captures all the relevant three-dimensional processes suspended matter concentration and is equipped with a water quality module that can also be extended to include ecosystem modeling but we still need coupling with other models and model approaches to get a complete picture and that's still required and of course the model doesn't need to be perfect it needs to be good enough it needs to be fit for purpose the term impact that needs a very clear definition impacts in the eyes of Walder and there's a lot possible in terms of mitigation and maybe even creating that positive impact but that also means that you need to very clearly define terms like positive and negative in a very early stage as early as possible and of course you cannot enhance or restore or protect everything everywhere at once I think that's an Oscar-winning movie so you have to make choices and an integrated approach is required here so that means that you need to think very well about your legislation for permitting and decommissioning and this one it seems like a side note but this may be quite important that stakeholder engagement is maybe as important as the technology so I'm very happy to hear that you have been talking with the fishermen for almost 20 years now that's extremely important we see it in the North Sea as well everybody needs to be heard and that's my final say thank you for your attention okay thank you alright questions for York make sure I look around yes go ahead yeah thanks thanks very interesting and this question I guess is really a two for all the modelers one is with respect to Scour and the other one is about Zoplankton and New Fousins and we can just discuss we've heard a lot about the sediment impacts but do they take into account various Scour strategies whether that's from putting down Scour protection itself or another nature-based solutions for Scour protection which includes planting seagrass and things like that so that's one and then the other one is I guess probably for most particularly for DHI has anybody done agent-based models for Zoplankton or New Fousins that actually have the ability to move themselves against currents if you allow me to respond to the Scour question then I'll leave the agent-based modelling question to DHI so it's quite typical to have Scour protection around your foundations but in high current areas you still see that there is an increase in sediment transport in the edge of your Scour protection so you cannot protect the entire Seabed so at some point you stop and edge-cour that can depending on your flow conditions extend quite far outside of the footprint of your Scour protection and that we're not talking about meters of Seabed level lowering but just enough to increase the sediment concentration in the water column every now and then and there are indeed efforts on alternative Scour protection systems so now it's just loose rock and that works quite well because it introduces hard substrate and it turns out that marine life likes hard substrate and with a couple of small adjustments like choosing larger rock to create more pore space or introducing luxurious material to facilitate oyster developments there's a lot of possibilities in terms of inclusive design artificial protection systems are being developed we also see that what I understood from my ecological colleagues is that seagrass growth on depths of typical offshore wind farms is a rather nonexistent because the amount of light that reaches the Seabed is not sufficient so there are some alternative Scour protection systems that make use of artificial vegetation but that's plastic it's plastic fronts it may also create a habitat that's suitable for marine life but I also know that not everywhere in the North Sea you can get a permit for those kinds of systems simply because they're plastic yes are those results in the report anywhere we can find some talk to the guys we do whales for example they move but they move quite differently than you thousands and still the corpus they move to cause up and down but they also get affected and Mary or Brian may want to jump in here so all the projects Doug have to do submit transport modeling so if you look at any of the cops you can find a modeling that's project specific as well as a description of the Scour protection that each project takes on so it is project specific and I don't know Mary if you want to add any any other questions or comments when we did the study first when we discussed about this whether we should include the Scour protection I think we actually include Scour protection in the resistance calculation for because they also take up some but how important they are for the accumulated impact on a larger scale right on the hydrodynamics itself yeah maybe a little bit that changes the resistance anything else any other comments just an observation it seems like that what we could benefit from would be the equivalent of the community model intercomparison project for the different models that are being developed for offshore wind energy development but anyway that would be a pretty interesting project I would think yeah as Jorik said we are a little bit tweens institutes because we have same history and has competed all our lives and we have compared results for different projects they have been compared very very closely and I think we can agree pretty close that would be although I do think that in the North Sea we were just a little bit better here we go who's doing Dutch water right now so maybe with that we'll take a break alright yeah let's not do that okay maybe a 10 minute break return and okay okay alright okay we're going to hear we've got two topics to cover here after our break and the first one is going to be from Christina Archer from the University of Delaware and looking at atmospheric modeling for wind turbines, wind turbine effects on the wind stress we certainly heard a great deal about that already today and so now we're going to hear even more so Christina please should I use this microphone so the people online can hear you so thank you very much for inviting me and it's my pleasure today to talk to you about atmospheric wind turbine wakes so we're switching from the water to the air and that's where I'm going to stay for the rest of my presentation I'm going to show you some modeling as well and some observations of these wind turbine wakes but I would do a disservice to wind turbine wakes if I didn't show you these two pictures these are actually photos so they're taken with regular photo machines and as far as I know they are the only two examples of naked eye visible wind turbine wakes in the world today so you all now know just as much as any expert in the world about what wind turbine wakes really look like to the naked eye they're basically almost impossible to see naturally these were very special days in the offshore environment of Denmark this is the horns rev the two horns rev farms and as you can see from the dates they were taken eight years apart so that's how rare they are so next year maybe we're going to get another photo or something like that so they have to be the right conditions of humidity, stability and temperature for those to be visible but the main point is that you can see how these wakes are regions or plumes that form downstream of wind turbines these are not pollution plumes there's no emissions there's no pollutant in there it's just water vapor that's condensing but it kind of shows you the features the cylindrical nature of the wakes sometimes they expand and become very very large and sometimes they stay kind of tubular but this is what we're going to talk about where we can observe we can also observe wind turbine wakes via LiDAR systems and these are examples of what these wind speed deficits look like LiDARs are basically electromagnetic waves that are safe to the eye that pick up movement of particles and the Doppler kind of effect can tell you what the wind speed was and behind the turbine you will see this wind speed deficit meaning that there is reduced wind speed with respect to what the wind speed was upstream so in the first figure in the middle you can see a vertical cross section of a wake this is the colors are like the more red the faster the wind speed so blue is kind of like indicative of a deficit and the same color scheme is pretty much in the other in the other animations in the other picture the picture on the left is taken from the Lewis turbine of the University of Delaware we own a GAMESA to megawatt turbine on the marine campus in Lewis it's been operational for some 10 years and we sell basically excess electricity to the city of Lewis for a profit I guess and the funds have to be invested in research on wind so we can fund some students and initiatives related to research so it's a very cool initiatives that because of the turbine another way that I can show you some wakes is via large eddy simulation which is a form of computational fluid dynamics and on the left is a single turbine wake and the rotor is where the circle is and again the color scheme is such that red is fast and blue is weak and you can see how dynamic the environment even around the turbine is so there's turbulence in the wake sure but there's also turbulence outside of the wake on the right is actually the Lillegrund wind farm which is my favorite farm in the world it's it's located between Copenhagen and Sweden and this is a 48 turbine farm and that's an example of a simulation again blue shows you where the maximum wind speed deficit is located and just so you know it these simulations take the one on the right has taken something like a month and a half on 144 processors continuously running for a month and a half and it gave me maybe 20 minutes of results so these are very intense simulations that need to be done you can also use a mesoscale model such as the wharf and use a parameterization such as what other colleagues have used this is a simulation that we have conducted with the wharf model and the Fitch parameterization which is the standard one that comes with the model this is the day of the summer of 2018 we simulated the entire summer the day with the longest possible wakes from all the planned offshore development along the US at that time all the wind energy areas are filled up to the stated capacity and this is basically the worst case with the longest wakes and as you can see they can become rather long maybe reaching 100 kilometers or something like that at times you can see overlap of wakes from different farms, neighboring effects you name it I want to point out how crucial it is in these kind of simulations it's absolutely crucial to have enough resolution in the vertical it's you need to have at least three if not four points below the rotor in order to capture the surface effects enough and this was extremely hard to do so if you only have one point below the rotor you cannot possibly solve the divergence convergence effect that I will describe later and you can probably you will probably get the wrong sign of the heat fluxes and turbulent fluxes at the surface if you don't have enough points below the rotor but also prior versions to I forget the exact version number of Worf but there's been a 10-year the version of Worf over 10 years had a bug a code bug so any results published in the literature during that 10-year period basically has a major bug in the code so there's a paper on this and the community is aware if you've just be aware of that it's possible that if you get some strange results it's because there's a bug in the code why do we care about wakes aside from the fact that they can have you know they can be very long and impact communities but I think the main reason that we care is that they impact power production the most so this is the layout of Lillegrund which I mentioned already before and I'm focusing on that column of turbines column B and let's imagine that there's a south-westerly wind so the turbine 15 is the first one and that is the line here I don't know if I want to dare touch in the screen because my colleagues have had crazy effect but this line one means 100% turbine 15 produces 100% of what it can at the wind at the wind speed of interest but then the pink line after that and I'm not going to touch it but the second turbine which is number 14 does not produce 100% in fact for the wind direction of southwest around 220 it produces 30% of the power of the front of the front turbine and same for the next turbine 13-14 instead of producing 100% they produce 30% of what they could and why is that because of that wake the wake of the front turbine hits the second turbine the second turbine does not produce as much as the first and this goes on and on and on in the farm by what? is the wind direction so the one with the minimum is exactly 217 and then you're around it and so let's take a look at these wakes in more detail and I'm going to show you some literature data and some of my own results this is actually literature this is a wind tunnel experiment and it's actual measurements from a long row of small turbines and the colors that happen to be the same so I really love that so if you look at the blue that's the wind speed deficit and as you can see it touches the ground basically relatively quickly so the wake of the turbines in terms of wind speed deficit indeed reaches the ground pretty much after after every turbine you see the blue shade where there was a higher wind speed before upstream the second issue that I want to point out is something that came up today about how the wind speed deficit is not cumulative and this actually illustrates what I mean you can see that between the first and the second turbine there is more of the blue the dark blue that means that the shade is still he doesn't get any darker in the second turbine than in the first one and then if you actually continue and look if you focus on the dark blue you can see that he doesn't get any darker at the third or the fourth or at the fifth the maximum wind speed deficit kind of like remains the same and if anything the further you go in a wind farm the less of the deficit is so it's not only non cumulative it's very non-linear and very hard to actually predict you can use also large eddy simulations to look at the wind speed deficit these are three cases for three stabilities stable, neutral and unstable and now the color is reversed so you have to look at red for a stronger deficit but it reaches the ground between four, three to five, six diameters so the wind speed deficit reaches the ground translated offshore for the oceanic community it means that the wakes do reach the water the surface which we suspected already for. You can also use Worf again this is a meso scale model with a parameterization and if your parameterization is correctly done you should see the same effect and in fact we do so these are results from the mid-Atlantic wind energy areas and on the left is the deficit at hub height and of course it's the largest so we're expecting that that's where the maximum deficit will be but when we focus at the surface and again you need to have enough vertical levels to really see that there is still an impact at the surface so the wind speed deficit does indeed reach the surface but it's very modest compared to hub height I have the line, the dashed line was 0.5 meters per second that is kind of like to me it's almost like a threshold of detectability, LiDARs have a hard time detecting the difference that's less 0.5, some LiDAR experts might say oh we can get to 0.3 but you know around 0.5 is what we can detect so as far as measurement is concerned you're not going to be able to see anything except the 0.5 line which for the most part is limited to where the wind farms are so on average at the surface you're not going to see wakes in Long Island because of the offshore wind farms offshore of New Jersey everything remains relatively local and we also have some simulations that are more relevant to this community for the offshore wind areas here and again every region is different but for this region there's even less of an effect at the surface it's almost non detectable and this is a three month summer average that we did now we can look at turbulence because if wake remember has a wind speed deficit and added turbulence so how does this added turbulence behave and these are again wind tunnel experiments or measurements for only two stabilities neutral and stable and I want to point out first of all obviously there's a large injection of TKE TKE's turbulent kinetic energy i.e. turbulence large injection of TKE near the upper part of the rotor my face is frozen I don't know okay it's back so so that's where most of the TKE is added and if we focus now at the ground which is where we're interested in look at that we actually see a reduction in turbulence near the ground so there is no enhanced turbulence near the ground in the wake of a turbine if anything there is a reduction of turbulence and this is from wind tunnel experiments by colleagues we can look at more wind tunnel experiments represented in a slightly different way this is a vertical profile of turbulence intensity before and after a turbine and again at the ground you see the green dots are upstream and the symbols are after the presence of a turbine and the turbulence intensity near the ground is reduced we can also do a large eddy simulations and these are some of some of the results in my own team and we can see upstream of this turbine we saw you know reds and oranges and then downstream we saw more greens and again turbulent kinetic energy from other LES simulations show a reduction of turbulence near the ground downstream of the turbine these are some results from my PhD student using yet another LES code and the first row of results is for a single turbine and the second row is for a farm so several turbines in a row and regardless of the stability we see that blue near the ground a reduction of TKE near the ground accompanied of course by a large enhancement of turbulence but that's near the top the rotor tip so again if we look at the with the work model we want to see if this is actually resolved and if you have enough points below the rotor it will in fact here we have the TKE added near the rotor top on the left so a lot of TKE added because of the presence of the farms but once you go to the surface you see that the color switches from warm to cool colors and that's because there is indeed a reduction of TKE at the surface so at the surface we're expecting reduction in wind speed as well as reduction of turbulence so do we see this in actual measurements can we see these effects in an actual setup and again I'm going to use the Lewis turbine as my I held a field campaign around there and it shows you where we are so Delaware I can't point but the turbine is shown in the figure down there the way we set it up was that you can't really see where the turbine is let me see if I can go this is where the location of the turbine is we have a radiometer and met tower upstream of it we have LiDARs and we have 15 surface flux stations in the field behind it at the end of the summer the prevailing flow is actually northeasterly and so the flux towers are in the wake of the turbine and there's a lot of measurements that we did on each of those sensors and these are kind of some examples of the wakes that we detected and so some random days and as you can see the wake is pretty long it meanders it's not a straight cylinder axisic symmetric it's very meandering and even in the course of a few hours it can be over different stations so at the second time one it can be over station S1 six hours later it's over station S3 and things like that so to quantify the effect of the wake really correctly it's very important that you take out any other reasons that could cause it changing let's say wind speed so just looking at a station before and after a wake hits it might be it might not be sufficient because there could be other reasons that cause that difference so the way we did it was we used the difference in differences approach basically we always compare two stations at the same time simultaneously and one was under the wake and one was not so we do the measurement of that difference when one is under the wake and then we compare with the measurements when none of them is under the wake and by doing that difference in differences we are positive to isolate the effect of the turbine and so this is an example of how that works for wind speed on the left we looked at stations S2 minus S1 and in green are the wind directions where none of them is under the wake so they are basically there's no difference really between the two so all the dots are around zero when there's no wake they are pretty much measured the same but when S2 is under the wake then there's that oops the difference becomes negative which means S2 has a lower wind speed than S1 and that's due to the wake and so we could look at the effect of stability and it doesn't seem to impact it very much so regardless of stability we saw a reduction in wind speed and the right figure is actually friction velocity which we used as a proxy for turbulence and we were very pleased to see that indeed also turbulence was negative when the wake hits station S2 which means again that the wake causes a reduction in turbulence at the surface we were also interested very much in a lot of other parameters and I'm going to show you a bunch of results here you don't even need to look at the numbers or anything but blue means that the results are statistically significant and they are a reduction so we found a statistically significant difference in wind speed when the wake hits same for friction velocity always you see the blue in the table a statistically significant reduction in heat flux although heat flux is so fluctuating and very difficult to measure differences but anyway we could find some statistically significant reductions and the last one is actually temperature and it's not blue it's red because there is a slight warming that is statistically significant and so we were trying to figure out why that is and first of all we looked at some LES results and we were pleased to actually see the warming in stable conditions also in the LES results on the left for single turbine right from a farm basically a row of turbines and I'm almost emotional when I look at these results because it took so long to get them but first of all it's very important that you notice how there's a bipolar distribution basically so wind turbines do not heat the atmosphere by any kind they don't do that so they just mix and move air masses up and down so if you get warming somewhere you're cooling somewhere else you're taking warm air up or down and so you're bringing it down you're warming here but you've got to cool it somewhere else so it's very nice to see that we did see that so every time you see warming at the ground in stable conditions it tends to be accompanied by cooling aloft so the net effect should be around zero because turbines do not cause a net effect and for turbines you have the more the warming and the cooling can be so in a sense the temperature effect is cumulative whereas the wind speed deficit was not cumulative so you see how there's more red when there's a farm but the last point is also that this warming I have this beautiful figure that seems like there's a strong effect we're talking about 0.1 degrees Kelvin of warming so very hard to even measure it is statistically significant and due to the turbine but it's not large in magnitude and when it's unstable actually you can find maybe a little bit of cooling at the ground when you have enough turbines the little blue shade there and a little bit of warming aloft but when the atmosphere is unstable the effects are very small insignificant so why do we have a reduction of TKE near the ground and to spare you a lot of math the brief story is that if you focus if you focus on the difference between the blue profile which is the undisturbed wind speed profile and the red profile which is the typical bite that the turbine takes out of profile it reduces the shear near the ground and once you have reduced shear the TKE production term is reduced and so you get a reduction of TKE because of that but what about the warming why do we get warming and it took a long time to understand how I can get warming at the surface in stable conditions when my heat flux is actually reduced at the surface that was like something must be wrong but it wasn't and the reason is that just knowing the sign of the heat flux is how if the heat fluxes are actually converging or diverging at the area of interest and so when you have a stable case like this and we have the downward heat fluxes with this distribution so strongest at the surface and weaker aloft and you have an enhancement of TKE in the upper part of the rotor only that means that the heat fluxes there are enhanced so the arrows pointing down become larger downstream near the upper part of the rotor but near the ground they're actually reduced so what happens is that you have enhanced fluxes in the rotor area you have reduced fluxes at the surface you create a convergence below the rotor and that convergence is the reason for the warming and it's also beautiful that vice versa you get the divergence aloft because more more heat fluxes into the rotor area mean that there's a divergence above the rotor and cooling in that region of course when the atmosphere is unstable it's all flipped and it's the other way around and so we were actually able to verify this mechanism with vertex on the MET tower on a few occasions when the wake was the other way around and it was interesting to see that the black line represents the divergence and convergence and you know it's a positive divergence before the wake hits and then in the gray area is when the wake comes and it flip signs it becomes negative so there's convergence and light warming and then the wake leaves and the convergence becomes positive again it was really nice to see that in the observations we looked at LES results of course to look for this and I'm going to spare you the equation but the line that you need to look at is that red line which is the change in the convergence so a positive change in the convergence means more warming and the negative change means cooling and for the one turbine case and the row we see exactly the maximum of that warming and cooling at the locations where we saw the warming and cooling indeed so it looks like this divergence convergence mechanism is really key and it also happens but on a much smaller of much smaller magnitude of thermal cases and then the big surprise we looked at the results from the warf simulations and it's the summertime the atmosphere is stable I'm expecting warming at the surface after 10 years of studying wakes everything was good and I look at the results and it's like what that's slight cooling caused by the wind farms like you've got to be kidding me the model is crazy right and so we're trying to see but is everything else correct and it's beautifully correct everywhere else so look at how above hub height we found the blue the cooling above the above hub height and below the rotor is indeed the warming due to the convergence that we had identified but this warming for some reason doesn't get all the way down to the surface of the ocean and we were struggling with understanding why that was until and by the way there is a direct correlation between the again this cooling I'm talking about is very very small is like a tenth of a degree but nonetheless it's cooling but it is clearly associated with location locations where the heat flux is actually being reduced so a reduced in a reduction in magnitude of the heat flux at the surface indeed should cause cooling so that is a correct mechanism the point is why doesn't the convergence and divergence doesn't dominate over this and the reason is that basically these are ginormous very tall wind turbines taller than anything we have ever looked at before and so on the left are the results from the simulations that I showed you with which are for the extreme size turbines that are planned for future development they have a hub height of 120 meters actually I think this is already too old they're very very tall right and you can see a cross section here in the vertical with the cooling aloft the warming starting below hub hub and below the rotor but it doesn't get all the way to the surface so basically this divergence or convergence area remains elevated and at the surface we remain dominated by the reduction of the heat flux by contrast if you we did the simulation for a conventional turbine with a hub height of 80 meters which is what we've always been simulating and in that case we do see the warming reach the surface so I guess this is good news that if the turbines are getting even taller then maybe this warming and this cooling is even further away from the surface and everything is going to be dominated by the heat flux is being reduced at the surface so in conclusion I would like to emphasize the three impacts or effects that occur more or less all the time in order of certainty absolute certainty that there will be reduced wind speed at the surface which has already been taken for granted in many of the simulations of ocean processes and wind stresses from wind farms that's check reduced turbulence in my experience is in 90% of the cases so sometimes in unstable conditions you might not see this because it's already so turbulent but reduced turbulence at the surface should be expected and reduced heat fluxes most of the times this is the hardest one to actually quantify in the field and if you're looking at surface temperature effects which have not really been discussed much today there are many factor that matter as you hopefully were convinced stability literally flips the sign of your temperature effect so you can expect warming in stable conditions and actually cooling in unstable so I cannot give you an answer it really depends on the stability and the divergence of the heat flux is the mechanism that seems to be very important to understand surface effects and turbine hub height has an impact as well and the turbines getting taller and taller probably is good news for effects on the ocean surface I tried to go as fast as I can to make up for the time but that's it. No, thank you that's very interesting. Yeah, please. Hey so I guess I have two questions first one about your last last slide where you about the differences in size were you only changing the hub height or were you also changing the diameter of the rotor? Also the diameter was a completely different turbine I know what you mean, yes. And then the second one is in your simulations over the ocean have you considered the effects of the ocean lower boundary layer feedback of that on your warf boundary layer? So the sea surface temperature anything about the ocean was held constant as actually not constant it was we got initial conditions and the boundary conditions from whatever I don't remember exactly but there was no interaction no feedback no one way or two way nothing. Okay, thank you Christina Alina are you doing the okay, yeah Was it me? Yeah, I don't Two related questions does the wind deficit at the surface scale with wind speed meaning is it like a percent of the wind speed or do you see that it's a constant deficit and then my other question was what was the other question well let's go with that one first I don't remember Everything scales pretty much everything scales with wind speed I wanted to show actual values in the paper because of the threshold of detectability because if it's below 0.5 it's almost impossible to detect anyway but yeah it scales okay all the wind speed deficit they tend to have a Gaussian self-seminarity shape so it depends on the speed and I remember my second question that's okay right thanks Doug as the turbines get bigger do you you presented that number of like four turbine likes downstream where the surface deficit and winds happens is that something you would expect to be scaled based on turbine size or as the turbines get bigger and the rotors get further from the ocean surface are there other processes at play that might impact that no I expect that parameter to remain the same but keeping my don't memorize 4 to 5d because that's correct for a single turbine when you're getting to a farm it's actually even even closer and if you're thinking about how far downwind would awake last if you have a single turbine it can be 20 diameters a single turbine wake can be 20 diameters but when you have a farm and I don't know what the diameter of a farm is but you might have some kind of typical length maybe the width of the farm or the length of the farm that wake is not going to go 20 times that length it's more going to be like 3 to 4 times that length there's some very bizarre nonlinear processes that go on I don't know who decides yeah no I was going to say Chen yeah go ahead yeah you know I like your results because after we run for you know wind effect we worry about our results we get it wrong because we find in the surface the wind you know we're 10 meter winds change so small even winter time the maximum 0.4 meter per second the changers so the surface so we think oh everybody talk about the wind awake so why we get so small but your results are very clear sure that you said you know the surface effect is very small yeah so yeah that we find it's important it's very important yeah we get results we find it's so small so then we draw the circulation we didn't find a circulation change a lot but definitely change something but not change because even winter time we change like 0.4 meter per second but the most wind in the winter time 7 and 10 meter per second but then average wind in the offshore region but then it changes 0.4 meter per second it's very small so we didn't find a circulation pattern changes so I was we was worried about it we just go go go to check it check it as we get it wrong or something but so your results are consistent we feel the heavy good good yeah you have to you know wind speed deficit you need to ask at what height is this taken because everybody wants to show the strongest effects right at 120 meters at the surface second deficit no way yes nice I don't know Eileen yeah go ahead yeah too many mics on sorry sorry I'm just curious can you say a couple words about how you modeled with your LES the rotor momentum extraction was this just a drag law or what did you do there yeah we used actually three actuator lines which means that we could see the blades each blade was aligned with some 30 points grid points on it and then there was a very sophisticated way to incorporate the push of the wind as well as the rotation that would occur simultaneously yeah I have a slide and show you later yeah okay thanks yeah this is kind of a wacky late afternoon question scared but I'm amazed at how high these rotor heights are getting do people have to climb up to service that and to the top of the tip oh my gosh because I nearly fell off the flight deck of an aircraft carrier and that was only 60 meters and I was afraid so I couldn't imagine going up that high in fact you would never be allowed to go alone it has to be in pairs of two people with training and all because if one passes out the other has to save you so pairs oh okay that makes it a little bit easier yeah go ahead yeah to respond to still you don't have to climb up no they have elevators our turbine has an elevator too to respond to that remark that's also a good argument why there is now a lot of discussion and standardization and simply limiting dimensions of the rotors and that also facilitates upscaling much better and that's also very helpful for the installation contractors to develop a new ship for projected rotor dimensions in a couple of years and they can use it to install at one wind farm and then build new equipment already for the next generation blades so there's a lot of discussion on standardization that was not my question but one of the trout in there did you also when you were modeling the wake effect did you also model the wake of the pilot self only the rotor do you think that would impact some of your conclusions related to so some of the NES results not my own but in the literature have had that some have had the nacelle and some have not and they have a strong impact very locally but it vanishes between one and two diameters so since wake effects are 20 diameters it was not an important one because in flows we typically I mean you can see a wake up until 40 in the water but that's the case with air but think about it this way so a pole or a foundation doesn't actually take any energy away it's just an obstacle with some drag but a turbine rotor is a marvel that takes that energy away from the flow and so of course behind it there's such a reduction such a difference in the wind speed deficit that compared to what a little pole can do I mean this rotor is sucking energy away so I don't know if that helps Any other questions? Okay then I think I had a question Hi this is Tom from Patrick Mabome I was wondering about the you saw some observational results about the wind wakes from the wind tunnel and so forth that my understanding and most of that is over the land surface so I was wondering how much do you think or to what extent can you just extrapolate that to the marine environment? Yeah and keep in mind also that most yes results are dry so there's no moisture at all so I expect that there would be some some impacts from the fact that there's humidity and maybe even a phase condensation and things like that but the nice thing about using stability as a parameter is that at least some of it should hold some of the results should hold because the atmosphere is stable or unstable of neutral even in moist conditions and so you know there will be differences in the marine environment with moisture but I don't expect that the fundamental processes will be different I just expect that maybe the magnitude will be different my results with the Worf model did include full physics and water vapor you know everything so those were included but not the alias which is what you were asking I think you were asking about the alias I was thinking more of like the surface waves like the affecting the actual shape of the sea servers so you were thinking about whether the waves height could impact these results right yeah not dramatically I would say because to me that converts into a z not surface roughness kind of value and there is not a ton of sensitivity to the results at hub height if you change the surface roughness and hub height is where the maximum deficit is and where everything kind of starts being exciting so I don't expect that to be a large factor it's an educated guess I was going to ask similar questions regarding the interaction at the surface so between heat flux temperatures and any of the physical features you measured all this on land so how does that scale or translate to the water so it was over land but it was basically at a marsh and it was from the ocean let me see if I have a photo yeah so this is where the turbine is and it actually flooded completely because we had a hurricane during one during a week of the simulation so it was very very very most conditions maybe not exactly as offshore but the measurements there's trees and things which no there should be there are some bushes here yeah but you know S1 S2 and S3 which were the ones that we focused on the most wearing a very very fetch-free I mean it was very flat and it was almost flooded I mean I had to wear boots up to here to go it doesn't mean that it extends directly but it wasn't a dry environment just thinking about that with combination of that and the wave action on the water yeah I've seen a couple of papers that showed a large impact of waves in very very special conditions but even that I don't think you would reach I think you maybe would reach like 50 to 60 meters above the ground but never the hub heights that we have today oh no I wasn't thinking so much about the hub heights as the interactions with the surface I don't know normally the trees the trees see it from the inside even if that's the issue okay any other questions I think we'll move on to our last set of presentations I'm sorry but Josh yeah I'm pretty sure I hesitate to ask this because it sounds like a really stupid question but if the turbines have trivial effect on the surface turbulence or speed what's driving these far field effects coming out of the models that's to anybody yeah I mean the effects at hub height are not trivial you see I mean I'm talking about it's measurable but it's it doesn't seem like to be a significant surface so that's why I started my presentation saying that's very important to have enough points to resolve these effects because if you only have one grid point below the rotor you will not get this right the TKE will reach the surface at the next time step just due to the diffusion processes alone basically and so I'm suspicious of many of the modeling results that have been presented before precisely because of this that's my point in addition many that is I've used the version of the WORF model that has a bug in the TKE treatment and so that impacts all the results yeah and then most of the other talks I didn't know how the farm was parameterized I didn't see any details and so I don't know I don't know how that was done so if you for example for TKE if you put the maximum TKE instead of at the top of the rotor you place it at hub height you got a completely wrong result so it's the devil is in the details could you use your microphone please I think it's significant that you show well such small effects both on TKE but also on speed reduction so the u-star which is the parameter we need really so I think that's really important that we I would like to see for example the way we do it because there's stability correction how that translates you were using friends and right how that translates back to you the results here that could be really and I know the results are similar to other researchers I went to a conference last year and there were similar results but there are many who has very different results as we just discussed because this makes nearly it reduces the impact considerably if that's correct as far as I can see so maybe that's the solution to everything use a good parameterization yes that's and it says it saves us the effort to incorporating wind effects but again remember for developers these wake effects are super important for power production so even if we were to find that they're negligible which they're you know they probably are we still need to get them right for power production or we're going to overestimate the farm production big time it's it's obvious maybe as a strong word but we have gone a long way in terms of optimization of the layout and how we treat the wake effects and the optimization models and things like that okay any other comments so that's a good transition to hearing from industry perspective on our committee's task and we have three presentations the first one will be from Ruth Perry and she is head of regulatory affairs for offshore wind Americas at Shell so she joining online or okay can you hear me Callie? yes can you hear me fine can you hear me? yes please some thumbs up and screens good yes we have the slides great thank you everybody first of all I just want to appreciate the committee taking an opportunity to have a developers perspective drawn into your work today just by background I am a fiscal oceanographer myself however have not worked in the Northeast did most of my work in the Gulf of Mexico so but with that said I think very familiar with storm effects hurricanes eddies mesoscale circulates them and some of the topics you've been talking about I will say what we tried to do here is provide you a collective of our perspectives across the oceanography particularly the physics and the biology as well as the climate and some of the things that we have to I'll say reconcile in the work that we do when developing these projects as we're not necessarily scientists but we do have scientists and we do have very capable support such as you heard from the modeling groups that work on the private sector I know AKRFs in the room, DHI and some others and so you'll hear a little bit across some different aspects of this I think a lot you'll hear in my talk is a bit repetitive and I tried to give nod actually to a bunch of people on the committee because obviously you're the experts for a reason and much of your work has informed what we do from our side of the world and encourage open and honest dialogue with some of the things we're going to present and we can also a little bit of what's coming in the future and like I said I'm a physical oceanography myself physical oceanography myself but I'm a data person I'm an observationalist and not a modeler so a lot of what I talk about from the developer perspective is going to come from the observational information we can collect and how that we think is valid to informing opportunities but also informing the regulatory process which your study is going to help us navigate that so I'm going to cover three topics that you see here and go a bit deeper into the physics as well I wanted to start out with kind of the key points where we think the study could really help inform developers through the process and then I'll come a little I'll come back to these at the end but I wanted to put these up front so I think everybody in the room knows this the National Academy's attempts to obtain an authoritative objective and scientifically balance the answers to difficult questions of national importance most people in the room know that the administration has prioritized offshore pretty ambitious target 30 gigawatts by 2030 and 110 gigawatts by 2050 those targets are really policy targets that will ideally result in an energy transformation where we have renewable energy in the domestic portfolio now not to say that is at any means part of the study itself but I think that's where it really underpins the national importance of this issue there is a movement to diversify our energy system particularly utilizing the resources in the offshore to address climate and other challenges that we have at a global scale related to energy in our in our view we hope that the study can provide context that informs regulators on a path forward there is some difficult decisions that have to happen and those decisions in turn in part changes that we may have to make to our projects and so this study is a key component we believe in helping the regulators move forward on a path forward and helping us to determine what makes sense in terms of what these projects should look like how they should develop this study we believe will also inform scientists of better questions to study I think that last conversation with Dr. Archer was a great one as well as many themes throughout the day that we've heard in terms of models and scales of what's being considered in those models and I'll come back to that one and then lastly important developers how to improve our local modeling efforts you heard from the modeling panel that we have to do assessments that are project designed assessments those are intentionally constructed by the US regulatory framework so it's not that we don't want to extend that science beyond what we're looking at but we have very clear mandates and regulatory requirements of what we have to provide to agencies so that they can meet their requirements as regulators we hope that the study can have an appropriate balance that informs future best available science approaches the reason best available science is in quotes here is both a legal regulatory term it's not a term that we would necessarily use in the academic community and again this goes back to that balance of how do regulators move forward these projects and improve these projects and balance the effects of those projects utilizing the information that they have now which is that best available science what we wanted to highlight is a few things that our industry can bring we have to conduct multiple levels of studies assessments and monitoring those range across biology, physics, chemistry and geology geology and geophysics by me I know Doug's in the room as well and so we believe a lot of this data can help to inform how we can answer these difficult questions that the committee will have to reconcile offshore when developers recognize the extension of the value of monitoring research beyond the local project level I'll talk about this in a further slide we do want to be responsible collaborators in this process partly the reason that we're here today as well but we do want to know if you've ever heard me talk on the policy space our regulators are often governed by statutes to assess the impacts of a proposed project those are both localized and cumulative and it has a limit and it certainly has a limit when we look at scientific design and this is not always a perfect system and so how do we balance what's governed regulatory with scientific design that is certainly a challenging problem permitting offshore wind is complex, nonlinear has multiple scales so it's much like ocean physics that's kind of my cheeky piece the table on the right I don't mean for you to read this it's certainly not something we expect to get into the report and all but I just want to point out that the permitting process for these projects is multiple years and over those years the science, the modeling the observations all of that evolves into the best available science that regulators have to use and so that gets incorporated it's certainly non-linear and it's a very complex thing that this study will help to inform is how do we get to an output that makes sense for both the design of the projects and what the projects are designed to address which impacts the climate the inverted triangle I want to point this out I'm going to switch into talking about scales in a few minutes so that everybody's mind that the scales that developers are looking at are very focused on the local and then our neighbors which is the cumulative part under that regulatory context up to the regional parts when we talk about modeling we have to extend that a bit out to look at some of the oceanographic, meteorological and other effects that we have to bring into our assessments okay high level, some of the partnerships just for many of the folks in the room may not be aware what's happening in the U.S. now and I know Laura will dive a little deeper into this with biology we are doing quite a bit of data sharing all of these projects are deploying oceanographic buoys most of those projects are feeding their oceanographic data through the IU's regional systems we intend to see that expand as more buoys are deployed with the new lease areas but also buoys that will be deployed to support the lifetime of these projects which has about a 5-7 year permitting time and then we get into around a 30-35 year operational time and decommissioning and we need those observations not only to support the assessments we're talking about but to support the safety of our operations so the data has utility both supporting the projects the work that the regulators have to do and the scientific community at large we want to honor that the best we can monitoring we have to do what I'll call applied monitoring and this is really looking at the conditions before we build these projects what happens as we're building the project during destruction operations and eventually decommissioning so there is a lot of baseline data collection but also more systematic routine data collection that happens in and around these farms that again generates significant amounts of biological data as well as physics and chemistry that can be brought into government data sources through the regulatory process and lastly part of our good stewardship and where we're operating is we know that there's critical species, critical environments and other ocean uses in those areas so we do understand that you know contributing to the research base understanding what's happening in the systems are important in turn identifying what happens in the systems helps us inform how to build better projects so there is a feedback loop there and many of the developers contribute to a wide variety of research across the spectrum considerations just the last thing I want to go you know before we overview the science from the physical perspectives the current state of hydrodynamics and a regional and local level I added regional and local because you know listening today following the work that the committee is doing we've hit quite heavily on the regional scales and the global scales so it will sound a little repetitive when I give our overview but I think what's really missing is those local scales and I know there's a few of the scientists in the room that we've worked with over the years and what we're seeing from our industry data that we're collecting is the local variability the perturbations and just the dynamics seasonal and annual day today on the shelf where we're operating where these projects are going to be built change pretty significantly so you know we hope to see that the committee address this address those scales and what we know about the current body of science perspective to those scales and that the scales of influence and change are important here as you know we look at European examples and then we look at the technologies evolving in the U.S. both and the turbine technologies but how these wind farms are designed that we comparatively fit development of those individual projects and cumulatively across the mass Rhode Island when energy area into those scales of influence and change as appropriate and ideally I covered this this repeat it you know informs regulators on the path forward that they can be policy objectives inform scientists of better questions to study as there's a significant amount of research that's being kicked off by department of energy know of your ocean energy management among others to continue to study what happens as these projects get built and inform developers how we can improve our local modeling that we feed into the regulatory process so scales matter you'll hear me say that multiple times that is nothing new to the committee so I'm not trying to necessarily offend anybody in the room I think why I hit this very hard is really to focus on that local level and what do we know and not know at the local level in this region that's particularly important to understanding what is happening in the biological system and the pump that's beating that system all the way up to North Atlantic right whales and what is that how does the local context change is it a tipping point you know depending on how many turbines are in the area how those turbines are designed for instance we have a unique case study with mass Rhode Island where all of those leases have a one by one nautical mile grid pattern that's unique in this particular area compared to other areas as we heard earlier the technology in the U.S. is also much different but then again the dynamics in the area is much different as well and so thinking you know global down to local is what's being discussed here today but just want to remind everybody from a developer's perspective we're really looking local up to region on global and so how the two you know directions intertwine we think is a really important component of what the committee can provide to study sponsors based on circulation and currents nothing new here we know if we're talking about a global level that there is a weakening of the Atlantic Merdeal overturning circulation we heard this morning very well strong presentation and data on the warming that's happening at the area how does regional currents and circulation is changing as well as sending warmer currents returning to the Atlantic and warmer waters intruding on the slopes of into Gulf of Maine and the western Shelf region as you see here and what I want to point out when we get down here and my cursor move it in our study area which doesn't look like there is when we get down here we're actually seeing some of that warming too and so overall the bigger global regional picture is really that much of the forcing that's impacting the farms in this location it's coming from the north and it's coming from these and we know the warming is there don't have to repeat that just could have different graphics when we break down into the regional circulation and currents I want to note everybody just follow this little yellow box it's approximate to where the locations in size the Massford Island wind energy areas already speaking as we're looking at this from the developer's perspective at a project level we're trying to put our project in perspective of working upwards in those scales not downwards and so the Shoals is a hydrodynamic system that's part of a larger regional circulation pattern which we know has many changes in it and the regional net flow is expected towards the west southwest of the study area because symmetry has a strong influence on the hydrodynamics you can see the physical features and how all of those interplace as we start to drill down from a science modeling perspective then we know that we have to include these factors and what we're considering is happening in this boxed area from our perspective what we're starting to see in local circulation from our buoys that are in the lease areas and I just want to remind the committee that each lease developer typically one to two buoys in their lease area these buoys are designed to collect information about the lease area and not necessarily much wider than that so usually the placement of those buoys is dependent on the wind resource and what they're trying to assess from the wind resource so again it has a different application that the physics that's coming from that data is very valuable to when we're looking at the area. That data is still preliminary and being worked up and Daniel Mendelssohn who couldn't be here today but I believe we're working with Kelly potentially to bring him in so he can present some of the early data to the committee that you're seeing in the buoys but there are other data that's available on Nieracus from the Equinor project and some of that is in the early stages of the process and so you won't see it today but what I wanted to just cover is that we're seeing consistent patterns to what local studies for the area are showing especially around tides and currents. Tides and the predominant force for driving currents on the surface and the depth of these lease areas. What's interesting about this is that when you compare some of the traditional knowledge from the sailing community or fishing community, they see this as well and we also see the rotary nature of tidal currents in the particular areas where these lease lives are which you can see down at the bottom of this graphic and obviously just going slightly north when you start getting into the channels of this area we have a much different tidal forcing and so what's interesting about this is typically the regional mesoscale models that we've seen will pick that up but when you start getting into the more localized shelf areas you start to lose that resolution. So we're seeing the resolution at the local levels through our buoy data but that tends to get filtered out when we start looking at regional models. This again just shows the dynamics of what's happening in the area and all I wanted to do was point a couple of examples of showing that rotary nature of the currents and just to orient my mouse keeps disappearing Kelly as we're looking at this area up there so as you follow the evolution of it you see that forcing that's coming from the directions that we've heard about all of the off-shelf deeper dynamics especially the models you're picking up but you can see that that rotary nature is pretty persistent on the shelf where these lease areas are. This just shows a zoomed in diagram of that and this essentially is exactly what we're seeing the circular features lower is what we're seeing in our buoy data and we hope to have that available at a time that can help inform the committee's study because it is one of the only sources of localized data that's in this region and I just put the colors up there this model doesn't cover it but you can start to see that same title current rotary trend in the bottom of these figures if you follow it through what a day looks like and then I don't want to spend too much time on this but it was discussed today but we also look at the local hydrodynamics around our particular structures so the types of structures that we're providing in our project design envelopes are what is modeled and so while different developers may look at different technologies there's a pretty consistent overlap in the size of our technologies and we are doing and investigating the same amount of work that's happening as you've heard in the lit review where we're looking at the turbulence and the flow and the changes around our particular structures we're not only looking at this from the physics and the biology of what's in the water column but how the sediment dispersal and then the habitats may be affected as well and I think many of the points around these two slides were raised so I won't read those and the same here in terms of what happens when you have a stratified system and looking at the overall effect when we look at a range of impact and that's what I really want to highlight here is when we're looking at specifically individual projects but then looking humanically at a local level particularly across the wind energy area that bone is designated we know that we're going to have the turbulent flow we're going to have these changes on our individual turbines but what is that kind of tipping balance of the impact against a broader ecosystem that is more forced by what's happening globally and regionally than what is happening at a local level so we're trying to reconcile that as well through quite a bit of our monitoring and research but we want to be partners in doing that with the scientific community as well how can we collect the data and observations to really understand what that change in the system is but based on the literature review and the comparative analysis to the technology that we're deploying we believe that there's an overall minor impact at a project local level when you look at effects on hydrodynamics so I'll leave this back up as the closing just to kind of come back to what we hope the study can do and really provide further insight on how we can improve the local modeling efforts how the study can help define what we know in terms of best level science and when I say the lead talking about the collective developer community, the academic community and government community as well as other ocean users of the area like I highlighted the sailing community for instance that knows what happens out at a local level where we can really understand is what happening at a local level cumulatively going to impact what's happening at a regional level where we know that the regional courses that you've heard about today are really potentially more impactful to the biology as well as some of the global changes that are happening potentially more impactful to the biology than the structure themselves so we are trying to reconcile that question as well we want to be partners and moving that forward and we look forward to what the committee can help provide to the community aware the current state of knowledge and sciences on that particular topic hey thank you questions we're happy to take questions all at the end too Eileen if that's helpful to hear from others okay if there's no questions right now maybe make sure I don't miss anybody okay that's fine we can hold questions until we get to the end if we want to do that okay so next we're going to hear from Kaplan he is the North American director of external affairs for ocean winds which is a global offshore wind joint venture between EDP renewables and energy and overseeing governmental and regulatory policy so Seth please go ahead thank you turning on the microphone is very helpful so let me just toss this up and start my video and kick it into slide show mode there we go thank you very much and I'm a who you want speaking towards the end in that I'm going to be brief and really trying to be responsive to what's been said more than sort of presenting fresh material I mean I do have to say that initially that having a first presentation hitting on some of the day hitting on some of the same points that I intended to about the question of putting things into context in terms of the climate impact better than I could have presented it sort of was a bracing and very positive experience in general so my context for what I'm going to be talking about here is that I spent 16 years at conservation law foundation run and eventually running clean energy and climate change there started off working more on the transportation and land use side moving into energy and climate I would say climate on the label so you know and collaborating with the oceans program there on ocean protection and my goal here is indeed to kind of put things into context and talk about the big picture and tie it back to some of the excellent points that have been presented here you know listen there are obviously enormous topics of great importance that require lots of further study and the purpose of this panel is indeed to dig into one of them and what we need to do is be very clear about what science what the regulators need to do and they need good input and perspective from the scientific community is what science is ready for use in decision making and what science needs to progress further before it can be used in the decision making process what do we know and what we don't know and I was deeply heartened that that was sort of a theme of so many of the slides from so many of the presenters what we need to know what we don't know yet and that's a humility that is rare in our society these days and I think it's a perspective for the scientific community that is greatly admirable you know my perspective is somebody who worked, who has spent my career as an environmental advocate and then working in renewable energy and basically viewing it as implementing science you know I spent 10 years of my life coal-fired power plants in New England and they're gone and I'm still here so I guess I won but you know when I think about the plant at Brayton Point which used to when it was running full tilt put about a million gallons of heated water into Mount Hope Bay every day which is a body of water consisting of about 30 million gallons you know it is not surprising that there was this impact on the fish population there which is very well documented by some great folks at Rhode Island Department of Environmental Management one thing I would note is that I heard an echo of that this morning frankly the discussion of the blue fish being in the wrong place at the wrong time the company that operated the Brayton Point power plant used to have a very successful fishing derby because all sorts of exotic species could be found around the thermal outfalls from that power plant and understanding that these projects and we need to understand what are the context and what is the impact of our projects and you know we are not discharging you know wind farms do not discharge heated water but of course we need to be mindful of our impacts both positive and negative now of course the ultimate example of something we know a lot about is climate you know I just can't help but note that you know very few people remember Eunice who in 1856 published what is believed to be probably the first scientific note about what we would now regard as climate science and you know and I mean I think it's actually a really interesting thing for from an academic perspective to go back and look at what John Tyndall wrote shortly thereafter or Spente Arrhenius wrote in 1896 a lot of the hypotheses a lot of the thought about you know that this there's the foundation upon which climate science rest is about the most solid thing in the world and we have the IPCC reports are in fact the largest peer-reviewed scientific exercise in the history of humanity and I think it's always important to acknowledge Charlie Keeling you know missing his children's birthdays as he relentlessly maintained the CO2 observations on the top of Manila that give us the history of that underlie and the data observations I mean all that we can hope to do as offshore wind developers in terms of this community is to be as good a partner as Keeling had in terms of helping to provide you with the data that you need since we are going to be present out there you know so I know it's a little you know cheesy but that's who we want to be we want to be cognizant of your work we want to be helpful in your work we want to provide you with the data that you need and you know I know that it is a little bit of a mildly extreme point to point out but the difference between this body of science that goes back to the mid-1800s and you know the emerging science really important stuff that you guys are working on is as sharp and obviously where the two things interconnect is in the science about the impacts of global warming on marine mammals you know that this is a very important topic and we need to be very aware of how what role we can play as an ocean user in terms of helping you all to get your arms around that and understands and have that play out in the conservation world my takeaway here and this is where my shred of hope is you know I spent the last 20 odd years engaged mostly in New England and then getting into New York and into the rest of you know in a little bit in Quebec and then the rest of the North America about during that time the energy transition we've already had is pretty remarkable that we used to run on coal in New England as is still the case in some other parts of the United States and now we are on a day-to-day basis generally running overwhelmingly a plurality on natural gas this is a transition that has occurred and the Commonwealth of Massachusetts now I mean this is a very important point that these mandates about offshore wind are not we call them policy mandates but they are driven by the science that you know I got the citation down there to a really excellent piece in climate that was used by the Commonwealth of Massachusetts in formulating the 2050 climate roadmap to be very blunt here on the coasts there are just not a lot of places we can use to make renewable energy to make zero emissions power and what we have is the offshore wind resource as somebody who has spent a couple of decades for example trying to help build wind farms in Maine the transmission issues there and some of the issues that have prevented that from happening are a stark reminder that there are very very few places here on the heavily populated coasts of our country where we can build large scale onshore wind we are putting up a fair amount of solar we need to put up more we need to put a lot more but there is increasing resistance and issues you know some legitimate about displacement of agricultural land and such and there is a limited amount of how much we can import there is a reason why the little blue slice for imports is blue because that's hydro kebek and there is a limited amount of clean imports that we can't from other sources because everybody is going to need a lot of clean power we need this we absolutely need this and I would highlight what I have on the right there about demand that we need to roughly double our electric use as we convert our homes and offices and factories from direct burning of fossil fuels to electricity as we switch our transportation sector over to electric the demand is going to rise and we need to be smart about it the little gray area up at the top of that bar is conversion loads those are flexible industrial loads many of which don't exist right now but what we need to do is to be able to have highly flexible use of electricity that can ramp up and down depending on when we have need but at the end of the day in order to reach our climate goals that are an output from that rigorous scientific enterprise that has been in progress since 1896 or so in order to meet our goals we need an enormous quantity of clean zero emissions generation and the resource we have here on the coast is overwhelmingly offshore wind and we can't stint on it we need on that as we hit the scales we need to put on one side of the equation the absolute critical environmental need societal need resource protection need species protection need protection need to actually build these things that has to be part of the equation so that's my plea not to get a little over the top there but one reality that people just don't are unfortunately not aware of you know it's a the band talking heads once said it's we live in the age of the dinosaurs because we run on gasoline and in New England and in most of the northeast on the cold nights of the year and the cold days of the year we burn oil to keep the lights on and it's a high carbon fuel and that is a reality we need to avoid those high carbon moments when we are putting particulate matter and other things into the air during the burning of that those fuels we need the resources that are available during that time to kick in and as many of you are extremely well aware it's really windy offshore during those cold times in the winter time so the one of the express purposes of the offshore wind mandates that the northeastern states have adopted is because offshore wind is a winter peak coincident resource that can help us address this critical critical problem so I know this is not the usual stuff of a presentation at a committee like this but I felt it was very important to say what I could say that would have some value and so I put up there the future which is a floating offshore wind turbine which is currently in commercial operation off of Portugal and we'll make an offer to accept any floated questions after Laura has spoken okay thank you about provoking comments okay so I think we'll go to our final presentation here from Laura Morris here and she's just recently joined Inventor Energy where she's the director of environmental compliance and committing for east coast offshore wind projects thank you hi everyone I want to thank the Academy and the committee for inviting us today to speak it's a pleasure to be here and it's been quite a learning curve today and really enjoyed the presentations so my name is Laura Morris I recently joined Inventor Energy actually on Tuesday and a little bit about Inventor Energy for folks who may not be familiar with Inventor Energy they are a world leading renewable energy company they've developed over 30 gigawatts of renewable energy through 200 projects and there's significantly more in the pipeline we as a company have secured two offshore wind lease areas one on the east coast and it's a you may have heard of leading light wind which is in the mid-Atlantic Byte and then a lease area on the west coast and more obey so a bit about myself some of the folks here know me well but I for those that don't I'm actually marine mammal biologists by training and spent several decades working for NOAA and other organizations supporting stock assessment surveys and various directed marine mammal surveys throughout U.S. and U.S. waters and internationally and spent a good 10 years doing aerial and shipboard surveys for North Atlantic right whales and I remember the one year when there actually was zero calves that we sighted down in the southeast and that was probably sad to say almost 20 years ago so right whales certainly have I've seen them go through a lot of change as all biologists have been studying the species and 2012 I joined the energy industry at first with Shell and then shifted to Orsted work since and I've been in the offshore wind industry since 2017 and supporting multiple projects that are in development including South Forkwin which is actually approaching build in the next month or so I've been heavily involved in advancing data sharing agreements between the between industry and NOAA and other federal agencies tearing off some of the work that Shell did when I actually was working at Shell and Ruth has discussed and have been involved initiating quite a few million dollars in marine research including EcoPan project that was involved Rutgers and several other institutions I sit on a several research advisory committees including the RWSE and the main offshore wind research committee and many developers are heavily involved in these organizations and so as Seth and Ruth has have indicated you know we take our stewardship quite seriously I think it's worthwhile to highlight some of the investment that the offshore wind industry has made today in right whale research this is an estimate of investment is likely a much larger number and then if you consider investment in the larger marine science field we're probably talking a number that's already in access of 100 million dollars across the offshore wind industry it's pretty significant and this number will continue to grow there's a range of studies that we have voluntarily funded today and then there's additional studies that Ruth has talked about and we'd be happy to take questions on any of this in the Q&A period and I think there's been some questions about data sharing and I think there's this sense that there isn't data being shared by offshore wind but there certainly is and I think it's just there's so much happening so quickly that it's hard to identify where those data are and we're happy to try and steer you to where some of that information is this can't be done alone and we have been building as an industry collaborations with many institutions we have seen the formation of two really key organizations the regional wildlife science collaborative as well as the responsible offshore science alliance which respectively deal with wildlife and fishery science as well as oceanographic and other marine science topics and they work quite collaboratively and developers are heavily involved with that we are seeing significant state investments that we haven't listed but there's millions of dollars that the states themselves are investing in directed research that probably many of you are familiar with or have benefited from and of course you're seeing a significant range of academic institutions that are becoming involved or have been involved in directed research and we certainly expect to see this list grow this is by no means a comprehensive list so for the task at hand one of the tasks that you're tackling is to evaluate the potential of the perturbations from VTGs wind turbine generators to potentially change ecosystem dynamics and how those could affect North Atlantic right well pre-availability near Nantucket shoals so the next few slides is nothing new I don't profess to be an expert on this I'm a biologist I'm a mammal field biologist but you know this is just a refresh of what you have already talked about quite extensively today but just revisiting some of these things so obviously as we think about it as developers we recognize it's a very complex biological and hydrodynamic system that we're trying to tease out and as Ruth very well explained that we're trying to look as well at the local level for our permits and regulatory processes that we're going through I'm not going to go into detail because obviously you're all well familiar with this information already this is just a slide you'll get this slide pack South Coast wind was kind enough to share some slides that their team is putting together and I think this is just a nice simple model of what leads to successful foraging conditions for North Atlantic right whales and you can look at it more closely when you get the slides very simple flow chart on the process but I think very handy as well and then same here this is just a conceptual model of the annual cycle of copepods and as you're advancing the report I think it's a way to think about how is impacts from the wind farm leading to potential impacts to this cycle of copepods and aggregation on Nantucket shoals from our understanding and our review of the literature to date and the best available science is that there is infection onto the Nantucket shoals which seems to be driven primarily from regional currents and tides and that climate change has been well described today has may have a significant effect on the regional circulation and current systems and what we ask is that as you're progressing the report is to understand the strength of the relative forces of the existing area specific conditions and stressors that you've been describing versus any stressor that may result from a wind farm that you also have talked in brief about today I want to take a higher level review and I really want to call out Erin because I find the work that Erin or co-authors have done has been really seminal work really important to right well conservation and really highlighting what's happening to the populations over the last several decades I personally have witnessed it in my years of doing right well work seeing that shift of right well from the Bay of Fundy up until the Gulf of St. Lawrence and I remember 2017 very clearly when all those deaths started rolling in because right well suddenly showed up in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and it was a really seminal summer for biologists studying right wells because there was no, there didn't seem to be a way to stop it but Canada has definitely responded but I think the work that's done here to me really drives home that there are larger forces at play affecting the right well population and I hope as you're progressing the report that you can consider these and of course Erin obviously is here on the committee and can elaborate in detail about the great work that her and her co-authors have done so other considerations now I understand that your focus is really on hydrodynamics and not on these larger considerations but I think it's relevant to point it out and there are elephants in the room we can't ignore these aspects about the population and the primary currently the primary sources of mortality direct mortality for North Atlantic right wells is entanglements and vessel strikes we can't ignore that and we're seeing as discussed a little bit today there are newly identified aggregations that are being detected some from and they may have been existing aggregations but they're maybe newly identified because of the work that's being done by by Oshawaen funded research some of those as a winter detection from the EcoPan project that that Josh can talk about in more detail in your closed sessions and of course we talked earlier this morning about the aggregation the spring aggregation just last month off of near the New York shipping channel which is very interesting and of course we all know that there was the recent shift into the Gulf of St. Lawrence in the late 2000 teens and so what is the relative importance of these areas and that leads to thoughts about the population consequence of disturbance models and you have Doug on the committee who can who has been heavily involved over the years in advancing these models and I think it's really important to consider this because ultimately I think the the question that that Boehm is looking at is does perturbations at the local level to Nansuk it shows ultimately affect population that's not the question you're here to answer but I do think it's something to think about and I did want to highlight that we do do feel that we're bringing conservation benefit to the species offshore wind industries being conservation benefit to the species there's a lot of things that we are doing and can do to benefit including reducing entanglements through supporting the fishing industry to shift to ropeless technology this isn't happening I will tell you but it's a real opportunity for the industries to work together and and really bring some direct benefit to the population but what we are doing is a significant investment and addressing vessel strike risk through advancing a real-time listening network that frankly wasn't there there there was maybe one or two buoys and now we have a chain of buoys along the eastern seaboard largely funded by offshore wind developers and we're advancing tools for detection automated real-time detection and developing sighting sharing which is important to help mitigate for direct impacts from offshore users of all industries when they're out at sea of course we've had Seth went into detail about climate change and why the renewable energy transition is happening so I need not say more about that but it is really important for us to get these wind farms built so we can at least try to abate the rate of climate change and then as Ruth detailed we are advancing a lot of good science and then offshore wind industry is going to continue to trigger millions of dollars in research investments including bringing you all together to have this deep dive I mean this is very exciting to see it as a real benefit and ultimately a benefit to the right male population so finally I leave you with these thoughts and our request to the committee as you are advancing their report and I think these are things you're already going to do but I did want to reiterate these is to please consider inter-annual variability in the ecosystem the influence of storm events and of course their potential increasing strengths where there is some indication as you described Glenn earlier today and of course the influence of climate change which of course Glenn described in detail this morning and then a consideration of the relative contribution of all the feeding areas that right whales are visiting and what that energy intake means to the population and the population's breeding success I think as you heard I was sort of trying to dig into a little bit about the different energetic value of the different species of copepods and I think that's a very important point to consider and your recommendations will absolutely help the industry and all the stakeholders RWSC, ROSA, the states federal agencies and prioritizing and targeting funding for future officer when related research it's going to be a really key and valuable output from the report and so I'm really excited to see that to consider for my company where we want to steer funding in the future and as developers we're committed to this process as Ruth really eloquently described we want to advance best available science we support science based decision making including this group and contributing as best we can to your efforts and we commit to retaining a focus on sustainability principles and our stewardship of the environment that we operate in so I want to thank everyone for listening I hope this offers some value to your efforts and thank you for your time and I think we're now ready to take any questions from you all. Yeah great thank you. Questions for any of the three speakers we just heard? Comments? Yes. I guess I had a question for Seth it's about you know you showed these plans for 2050 looking quite far into the future and offshore wind was a big part of the renewable strategy there do you have an idea of say current turbine capacities what that would mean for the area in terms of area on the shelf occupied by offshore wind farms or yeah I mean I think there I mean obviously there is modeling behind that that anticipates a significant amount of floating particularly it would be in the Gulf of Maine and then further down the mid-Atlantic and potentially even further out into the New York Bight beyond the New York Bight yeah I don't know the numbers off the head and quite honestly floating is progressing at an extremely rapid rate in terms of the you know that traversing that same curve in terms of going from you know in terms of the height and the number of megawatts produced so it's a pretty speculative business to be able to get into that I mean obviously when you start getting beyond you know 2035 2040 you're getting extremely speculative but yeah and you do you will start thinking about as we're happening is happening on the land side about repowering I mean some of those earlier Danish projects that were referred to earlier about horns revs I mean and so I mean when those first to offer some of our colleagues know better than I do they were put out there with basically land based turbines and within about six months they had just rusted up and seized and it's only been in the last 24 years that the entire process of learning how to make an offshore turbine it's something that can survive offshore as happened so as is happening on the land side we can expect it'll happen a lot slower than what's happened with those early Danish projects where they some of those have been repowered now five times some of the very early ones five six times but eventually you know as we get 20 years live in 20 years after the initial building of these 20 30 years it's reasonable to expect repowering with more powerful turbines Dr. Archer can lecture us all if she wants about the debt's limit and the mathematical ceiling on how much power you can extract from the air but it's hard to get there so I don't have the number for the turbines but yeah and also to be very honest when you start getting beyond like 2040 2045 a bunch of speculative other renewable technologies that could step into the breach you know I think we need to build plans today based upon what we know is possible and this is what we know is possible I can add with regards to development in the US and Mary may want to speak to this but there are several lease areas being considered I'm not lease areas I'm sorry considered for development in the New York Bight along the west coast in Gulf of Mexico and west coast Maine California or Oregon so there's a lot in the pipeline for that they can elaborate on to the committee with regards to innovation and where how big turbines turbines are going to get I was at a conference last week talking with some experts in this and they've heard numbers as big as 60 gigawatts I was shocked I thought it was in the 20 to 25 range you know but 60 gigawatts is now being discussed so it's amazing 60 to 60 megawatts just a 60 megawatt turbine I'm sorry megawatt I'm sorry megawatt apologies but and one final thing in Europe there is pretty aggressive gigawatt targets I think it's 300 now that's what they recently said one thing I can say is that I try not to repeat numbers without them having in front of me but one thing I can say is that when you look at the industry forecasts going out to like 2040 2045 half more than half of the of the gigawatts or megawatts are floating right now we have no floating in here and we don't have any in the golden state wind our project out in California and the leaks area that you folks have out there is we just got the lease we're moving forward with it but that's going to be a number of years till there is that's going to be a couple of generations behind the fixed bottom projects that are under discussion here but that's the world we're talking about is that where the norm will become floating I think we have to a U.S. contact so if we just consider I think about 17 projects I kind of see Mary behind there I can add them up let's just say 15 to 17 they can get about an average of two gigawatts with the current state of technology based on what NREL and BOEM have calculated that of course has some variability across the projects and technology like Laura said and Seth said but if you assume 17 projects two gigawatts right we're only at 34 gigawatts if we're talking about that 50 gigawatts target you know if we're taking best available science that's here today but I think the other thing to recognize too is that may be what we want to build but that may not be what comes out of the regulatory process right so there is currently not full lease utilization just given micro siting challenges and some of the other things that that we raise whether that species habitats ocean use or just technical constraints water depth sediment etc right so all of those balances you can assume that there's not any variation which keeps us under under some of those policy targets that we're talking about and like Seth said when you get into floating technology or you consider regional nuances whether you're in California or Gulf of Mexico for instance in terms of things we have to consider as we move away from the best available wind resource areas like we have in the northeast in California when we get to Gulf of Mexico we don't have great winds and so the technology has to change to utilize wind yields that may not be optimal where we have it in certain areas of U.S. Yeah and to pick up a specific what Ruth was just talking about in terms of not full lease utilization the decision to go with the one nautical mile by one nautical mile uniform grid in the Massachusetts wind energy area from a energy production standpoint was not optimal but it was what was done in order to address a critical stakeholder issue. I spent my time between CLF and offshore wind working for an onshore wind company that has an extremely large wind farm that you will have driven through if you've ever driven between Indianapolis and Chicago and that has a uniform layout to address the concerns of that community and we've done that in the renewables industry to address these local challenges compromises in order to address local conditions and that reduces the amount of power you can produce there. I mean I would just simply note that the areas that have been flagged for concern by some within the area that is being under discussion here we're talking about swaths of space on that matrix of dots of where the turbines would go in the Massachusetts area we're talking that have been identified by some as of concern we're talking 40-50 turbines and taking those out would make projects uneconomically viable and take a real bite out of the climate benefits of these projects so it's absolutely critical that the work of a body like this and the committee like this really help inform the regulators to make decisions based on as Ruth said the best available science and which is more of a legal standard than an academic one I understand and really helping them to meet the legal standards about taking a hard look at impacts but again looking at the overall net environmental impact and understanding that there are trade-offs you know and it's not commercial trade-offs it's environmental trade-offs for shrinking projects in response to you know concerns that have been expressed yeah thanks Eileen great to have the developers here I think it's really good to keep the discussion well rounded I have two things one is with respect to what Christina presented and maybe this isn't necessary but is there any need to have data from the development side and the industrial production side in terms of the cascading effects throughout the wind farm to help us think about what that does to the surface of the ocean or do we have everything we need just thinking about data that the industry could provide that could help us either recommend modeling that or actually you know developing that into what we do do we need more data Doug you're asking a data oceanographer so if I'm putting my science hat on the answer is yes and I think there are opportunities to collect that data through the regional entities that science entities that have been stood up that the developers academic community and NGO community are part of one is focused on environment marine species minus fish and the other one is focused on fish and along with the IU's associations who are really helping as well as NROP, Mako, Marko the regional ocean planning bodies is trying to figure out what does that look like there's been a lot of work from the passive acoustic side as you're aware to try to figure out there's going to be passive acoustic monitoring so how do we do the power analysis to make it meaningful passive acoustics information right so that we're not just collecting data for the sake of data we haven't really encroached that around the physics and I think there's a huge opportunity there because as we are developing the projects on our side the engineers are going to be collecting data to look at the structures themselves there's opportunity to figure out what are those data packages that we can integrate into the structures themselves or near and around the structures including turbulence monitoring but no one has sat down I think or brought together the right group to say what are those data systems what are those packages how do we use Turbine's platform of opportunity and do the statistical analysis to support how much data we need to collect right because when we talk about okay Doug wants to put it oxygen sensors just throwing something out there or CTD's or whatever on 147 turbines all of the Turbine's proposed in the south coast area that's bit hard to do but that may not make scientific sense right and so we have to sit down and look at the Turbine's platform of opportunities where they're located and how we can utilize those structures to collect the data that then in turn can answer the questions so a bit of a stepwise process there but I think I could speak at least from the three developers on the panel today we're pretty amenable to doing that we've certainly been pushing and supporting the entities to help us do that yeah thanks Ruth my apologies I didn't really explain that very well what I was really interested in was the physics data and the turbulence data the you know the data associated with the actual power generation and what that does to the downwind effects potential downwind effects on the oceanography sorry I didn't it's a good question I'm going to have to put my developer hat back on yes but some of that data impacts the commercial sensitivity of the optimization of our equipment so I'll say similar to LiDAR data so when we're talking about wind speed data on the buoys four meters above surface standard and maneuver data not a problem but when we talk about the LiDAR data looking at the wind resource profile all the way up through the structures and the atmospheric column that is proprietary because that information is supporting our calculations of optimization and power delivery that then informs commercial applications like this so I think the answer is yes and we can get to what that looks like in terms of how do we manage confidentiality to share that data with the academic community if we start those conversations now bringing in the engineering side it's good you know data sharing takes quite a bit to work through Laura and I personally know this for many of our efforts but I think it's yes I'll just say that yes but there's some commercial sensitivity with doing it right away and the conversation to have with Block Island and C-Val as well we do have structures out right so we can start collecting localized data and build out test the application the data sharing test it out before we get to commercial scale in the water yeah and part of it it should have been maybe I should have phrased it even differently again and that is are there data from Europe that could be used brought to bear on this question of what does that look like halfway through the wind farm and then beyond and then downstream I guess that's a different question and as you're going through the next few months advancing the report if you come up with a question or request for data then developers can take it back and see if they can get it there's no guarantees but that is all we can do is take what you're requesting and carry that forward but again I want to highlight what you all put in and recommendations in the end of this report for data gaps is really critical I mean we're going to look really closely at this to identify funding for voluntary funding the states will be looking at it and how we collect data to fill in the gaps for future projects I think the results the report will be really valuable and I know we've had I've had a lot of conversations through Naracush and about this topic when I was at Orsett for five years everybody wanted data as Ruth suggested people mentioned people want to put sensor everything and that's not reasonable nor really achievable you know ultimately it's really we talked about this last week it's really hard to get access to those turbines because of liability and there's just not comfortable engineers are just not comfortable their energy generating devices are critical to our energy infrastructure and there's going to be sensitivities there but that doesn't mean there isn't desire to find ways to collect data that's a value and I think the wind farms personally I think the wind farms can contribute significantly to advancing climate models weather forecasting models obviously other environmental impact assessments but I think we have to think really carefully and strategically as Ruth just described doing an analysis to figure out what sensors are needed how many are needed and you know what is that what does that study look like and I think we should think about that I agree with what Ruth just suggested Eileen I had one other thing if I can and that is I assume the answer to this is no but if they're with the development of paired technology like hydrogen producing on wind turbines which I know is being contemplated does that change what we're trying to do at all and the answer is probably no but I just wanted to as long as we have the developers here because that's going to change what's happening on the platforms and things like that I'm not sure if that's a question for us I don't know Ruth I'm not sure what you're asking I don't think anybody has actually gotten to the design phase in terms of that I mean just the wrong guess would be that I think that we should approach the question about nacelles and towers having an impact on the modeling of wake probably figures into this that like a great bulbous shape on the side of the thing to you're the expert on the side of it to help convert to hydrogen theoretically probably let me put a plug in there is a turbine which is a research entity that's looking at blade technologies for hurricane and typhoon standards Gulfwood technology shameless plug shell is the corporate partner developer partner into that they're out of Louisiana Doug they are working with a couple entities and Department of Energy and so you know sensor testing and validation before we go to the field I think there are some emerging opportunities to do that because there are similar discussions of looking around instrumentation that's going to monitor fatigue and etc right so again think it's a possibility there's it's probably early initial conversations that start happening now and I can provide I'll send Kelly a link if that's something that the committee would like to maybe identify is where these existing opportunities might lie to do testing for new data collection right that's specific for looking at local us installations okay as a future future endeavor great thanks thanks Ali thank you any other comments questions yes Erin and then Josh thank you yeah I just wanted to commend the industry speakers in Yorick for being really upfront about the potential positive benefits of the work that the wind industry wants to do I took a little break from the east coast in Wales and did some work with gas platforms off the coast of California and impacts of decommissioning and one of the things that we found is all of that structure in the water created really important habitat for threatened and commercial commercially valuable rockfish species so overall you know the net environmental impacts were complex but this was a very clear benefit I think that Laura brought up some really important points about ways that this can be positive including expanding the listening network fantastic to help along the transition to hopeless gear and you know my work is really showing that right whales and climate change is a bad mix obviously wind is not an instant solution for that but you know it's something that we have to think about so I'm just I'm excited for this committee to move forward with recommendations both to mitigate the negative impacts but also to really seriously consider this opportunity to benefit the ecosystem and right whales specifically so thank you for that direction I really appreciate that I just want to add to your California example and Milton Love's work is this is classic tried and true in the Gulf of Mexico as well and a long history of fishermen being partners in the data collection right and actually doing the monitoring and information to support attraction versus production right and you can argue that there's positive neutral and negative benefits of both but you know if they're not necessarily in conflict and you get both there's potential value there and I think you're exactly right but the conversation always tends to always go negative and I think that's one of the things that you're seeing with the US developers we want to be partners in the science monitoring and research early is we know and understand that there could be negative impacts or effects but there also may be neutral or even positive impacts and effects and those are going to evolve over the timeline of these installations so we want to do we want the information that either were required to do for regulatory standard or that we want to do to be part of the community and we want to help you and benefit when we have this conversation so I really appreciate those comments and just wanted to add I've been up to my head in that debate for a long time with fisheries in the Gulf of Mexico and offshore platforms and even moving far out a good example with the oil and gas community in that sense is we were in areas that the regulators and the resource managers provide the information and utilize fishermen who go out there 80-100 miles offshore to bring that assemblage of information in to look at a very complex problem when you were talking about impacts and effects and I just like to add that we have a really grand opportunity here I put up some dollar figures this will be the biggest infusion of dollars for scientific research on the East Coast has probably ever seen and this will occur again in the Gulf and again on the West Coast maybe the Navy's invested more but it's huge it's a huge opportunity and I don't want to see it wasted and when I worked for Shell in Alaska we saw this rapid uptick and there was a lot of poor use of dollars and I think there's been myopic focus on particular things like developing a past acoustic monitoring network and no discussion about oceanographic sampling and we're developing an industry to respond to climate change how can we ignore that so again I really look forward to your recommendations to help steer the industry to broader sampling that will optimize the significant influx of dollars that's encouraging you have a response to this or I didn't want to follow up on Aaron's comment I wanted to say something very similar I just wanted to follow up on Aaron's comment because I wanted to say something very similar as one of my last recommendations was I just didn't have the sensitivity about the data sharing there and I was really I certainly learned something very positive that there is a positive attitude towards sharing that subsurface oceanographic data and I just appreciate all three talks because I want to take them back to my students this summer and understanding this larger scale context with offshore wind we tend to look at it in the narrow sense of the problems but I certainly want to show those slides if they're shared with non-committing members to our informal seminar in the summer because I think it's important for students in particular to see this larger context a lot of times they're mostly reading newspaper articles which are not always the most balanced approaches to problems there but no I just want to appreciate your perspectives on this. Thank you and we're happy to talk to your students there's an old expression in project development never miss your flight home is the true bottom line so I may quietly slip away here Doug knows this well he's always been a policy class and come in and given talks I think Lauren I've done this quite a bit on the nexus between regulation policy and how industry is kind of in the middle right balancing all of those things as well as folks in the room from the agency side so happy to do it and I think we often get caught within the tags that follow our names and so what Laura said huge influx of dollars it shouldn't matter where those dollars are coming from it should be it should matter how wisely we spend that to do the science to learn about more information because you know in the Gulf of Mexico no matter how the dollars have come we have all the dollars in the world and we still can't answer all the questions and so it doesn't matter necessarily how many dollars are there but how we use the dollars to move along these big big investments whether it's to address climate and we require new infrastructure or it's to look at improving seafood sustainability which is the battle going on with aquaculture in natural resource right so there's a lot of good analogies but yeah we're happy to come on a traveling road show that's helpful thank you we've been waiting let him make recommendations Ruth I hear between the lines you also you're looking maybe for a more efficient consenting process so to avoid this 10 year timescale or something in Europe we identify that's the bottleneck now that's the consenting so what we do is pushing to get kind of community consenting parts of the process in Holland we have data collected from all the developers so you can basically just tap into that database we do it with environmental stuff also collecting data in big public databases so you avoid all this say individual for each developer to do the repeat that process on and on again and I think maybe that could also what we do here that could be start of it comment we brought in experts that have been managing those data sets most of the information we have to do has to be turned in has to go to the regulators first there's usually time crunches and other challenges there however since I'm not in the room Bo Minoa colleagues can't layer at me but we have been working with Bo Minoa who both have extensive science and data management sides right if you talk about all of the survey data we're collecting for instance the geophysical data it's huge huge data sets right so it's all quality control to the highest levels to government standards to industry standards international standards but there's no capacity on the data management side for the government to serve that to the public and so that is a different conversation but we can't stop unfortunately from our perspective the regulatory process to solve that so we try to work with our government entities who can solve that Bo Minoa IU's National Center for Environmental Intelligence and others but it's been a systemic issue in the U.S. where they haven't gotten research for operational funding to maintain data management systems to intake all of this data so what's been done in Europe is a really novel approach and essentially setting it up in the bidding process and requiring the sustained funding source we don't have that in the U.S. and we're kind of often putting the piece that together when I say we it's all the groups the developers are certainly at the table because we would rather have our data go and be utilized than sit on the on bone shell and come out much later in the regulatory process but it's hard for us to balance how to do all of that while we're also you know in need deep in a very complicated regulatory process that we have to move along to get the projects built so we try to do it all but we fortunately require some resources even on our side but government as well to get that over the over the line in the U.S. Thank you Chen you want to last comment? Okay yeah I know so I feel like you know to follow the comments you know I think it's a shorting data for them in the industry really important so we work in the industry so they have to sign the contract so no we've developed the wind model develop the wind model they have a powerful offshore wind New York Harbor so we did a three months of simulation in the forecast they compare very good for their observation but we're not allowed to show people so the data are not open so then your other model are not able to use data to validate the model so even we have a you know wind resolving model with comparison but comparison coming very good but we're not allowed to show because we signed agreement you're not allowed to open anything for public without the permission for company that's why I think the shorting data for industry really help you know model development right Yeah I mean to be honest it's always a gut instinct for industries it's you know when they invest dollars in anything it's the gut instinct to hold on to it it's it's it's just what industries do but you know we are actively as offshore wind industry many of us are working to change that and I think as companies you know companies are changing as well but we have other organizations and I you know we are for many years in the start of offshore wind industry we were in the position of having to do the funding and then all those questions come up internally where all those processes and standards happen and then what's happening with the data but we didn't have an RWSE or ROSA and other organizations to push funds through where that does no longer is an issue the money goes in and then it's and then the work is done so so I you know it will continue to be a strategic of of concern and I think there are going to be data that is sensitive like hub height data that will have to work through as an industry to find ways to leverage that data but ensure that each developer is protected we make it sound optimal and perfect like Laura said but you know really she and I in a lot of the physics and biological data and it takes years kind of break down some of those silos but committees like this I know the ocean study board has taken this on as well government is trying to work it out and support industry and how we can do it but it's it's not perfect and like Laura said there's a lot of considerations and and there's you know honestly there's been a lot of instances to where industry has been burned putting data out or it comes with the perception that it's industry data so it is not good and it shows only what industry wants so there is a push and pull that's created that kind of knee jerk reaction that Laura speaks to that initial knee jerk reaction because there is a push and pull where we deal with a lot of perception bias with the work and contribution that we do and the people that we fund to help support us but there is a lot of data though that is being shared so Ruth highlighted some of the south coast and I believe Atlantic shores but anyways there are there are some yeah there's some oceanographic data yet when I was at worst at all the eco-pam data it was already fed into to know and and all the acoustic data real-time acoustic data is made available so there's a lot of studies that actually it's actually sitting with the researchers themselves and you know it's up to them to disseminate the data after they you know finish their research. Okay this is a wonderful discussion and it could probably go on for another couple of hours but in the interest of time I think we'll have closed the meeting for today and before I do that I want to thank everyone for the participation the wonderful presentations thank our online audience for hanging in there and for their questions and participation as well also I'd like to thank Kelly and Safa for organizing this very good workshop for meeting today so thank you all and I'm sure as a committee begins to write its report or continues writing the report we'll be coming back to all of you with probably questions and ask for additional input so thank you all very much it was the most flawless meeting ever the organization was great the zoom worked this was like unbelievable