 This is TWIS, this week in science episode number 600, recorded on Wednesday, January 4th, 2017. 2017 prediction show. Hey everyone, I am Dr. Kiki and tonight on TWIS, we are going to fill your heads with an interview about predicting the future, predictions for the future and how we did on our predictions from last year, but first. Disclaimer, disclaimer, disclaimer. The future has yet to be written and everybody's got a pen or computer or mobile type device. Even if you don't have any of those devices, the future is still going to include you. And while what you want from the future and what you will say, the better you are at predicting the future, the more likely you will get what you expect. And when you expect what's coming, you can prepare for it. And being prepared for the future is the best way to prevent being stuck in the past. And being stuck in the past is where most people who invented time machines probably are right now. Speaking of being stuck in the past, this disclaimer has gone on long enough. This week in science, 2017 prediction show coming up next. I've got the kind of mind that can't get enough. I wanna learn everything, I wanna fill it all up with new discoveries that happen every day of the week. There's only one place to go to find the knowledge I seek. I wanna know what's happening, what's happening, what's happening this week in science. What's happening, what's happening, what's happening this week in science. Yeah, science. And a very, very good science to you, Justin Blair and everyone out there. Welcome to another episode of this week in science. We are back once again to talk about all the science that we know, love and enjoy from week to week. But instead of doing the usual science news breakdown that we do, this week is our annual prediction show. And we're bringing you lots of prognosticating, tons of prognostication actually. And we have an interview and we have interviews from, not interviews, we have an interview and we have predictions from last year and we have predictions for the coming year. It's going to be an exciting show. Justin, you got anything special? Technically, the predictions we're gonna make are for this year, not for next year. I guess you're right, it is all ready to that, thanks. Okay, catch me on that air. No, my predictions are for 2018. Did I do it wrong? I think we might be getting ahead of ourselves. Just a little bit, okay, that's all we have. That's what we have for you. So let's start the show. I would love to introduce our wonderful guest tonight, Amy Webb, she's a futurist and author of The Signals Are Talking. Why Today's Fringe is tomorrow's mainstream. She's the founder of Future Today Institute and she is also an adjunct professor at NYU's Stern School of Business. So while we have not yet had the chance to predict anything about 2017, maybe she can give us some pointers and tips, this handy dandy guide that she's written. Amy, welcome to the show. Thank you for joining us. Thank you for having me. Prediction in my neck of the woods is kind of like a dirty word. Futurists who do this professionally, there is no prognosticating or looking into a crystal ball. We use data and evidence and modeling and we try to understand trends because for us, trends are signposts for what's to come but we would define trends differently than probably a lot of your listeners would. For us, a trend is a fundamental shift in human behavior and it represents a different or new way that we are using technology and usually trends never materialize overnight. They always sort of pop up as seemingly unconnectable dots on the fringe. And so for us, and we actually, this is our big, so we do put out an annual report every year. This is it, it's massive. And there are this year 159 trends worth paying attention to but for us, our trends tend to, they tend, you know, it grows rather than shrinks. So our trends, you know, stick around, but it's essential for anybody who's interested in understanding what's coming next to follow them and have some kind of method to understand what's coming next. What got you into looking at trends for the future and looking at where things were gonna go? When did you become a futurist? So I started my company 11 years ago and we're now in our second decade but it's not like I was a kid and decided I wanna grow up and be a futurist. I didn't even know that there was such a job. My first career was as a journalist and I lived in Japan and China for a long time and was covering the intersection of technology and the economy. But before then, you know, I always had one foot in programming and computers and tech and stuff. So it wasn't until I was in Japan and I could see the future unfolding because this was in the late 90s when a lot of the mobile technology that we're sort of taking for granted now was like I saw all the research that was in progress. And I just kept thinking, man, as a journalist, I'm reporting on, I'm just basically talking about all kinds of stuff that's already happened but I know what's coming next. I can see it. That is much more interesting to me. So that was happening and I read Future Shock by Alvin Toffler and saw that his job title was futurist and I thought, oh, I wonder what that is. That sounds interesting to me. Yeah, and then in your book, you actually have a story about walking into this technology market. How can you have it on, yeah. Yeah, and coming, you were looking for a phone or something and come across this guy who has phones from the future. Yeah, so I used to hang out, okay, how about I was really changed when it's the electronics district in Tokyo that used to be just these teeny, I mean, it was a giant fire hazard, just explosion waiting to happen. You can just imagine these teeny, tiny, tight quarters you can barely walk down. It's just wires and components and motherboards and chipsets and stuff all over the place. And I was waiting for a friend and I was lost and I wound up talking to this old computer geek and he was showing me, basically I got to see a phone that was connected to the internet and I just like, it was amazing to me that and I could sort of see what was about to come next based, but I wasn't just imagining it. It was based on actually all the reporting that I had been doing. So it just changed. I mean, that night for me really changed everything and I had a very hard time going back to work where the newspaper was still the focus, like the paper itself. And all I could think of was like pretty soon we're all gonna take photos on these phones and we're gonna take videos and we're gonna share them. And back then the editors couldn't conceive of a day when anybody would wanna publish anything except for a very highly edited, like perfect high resolution photo taken from a quality camera, you know? Right, yeah, how would anyone ever be using these little mobile devices that use strange, QWERTY keyboards? Yeah, resolution, they can't imagine that they could be the 4K that they are now. That's right, and within 20 years, I mean, this is how quickly things change. Most of the new phones in cameras come with an editing suite that would rival anything on your computer and you can wind up with a better shot than an edited shot that's ready to roll than you could with a standard point and shoot digital camera. Yeah, I think it's amazing how quickly it's moved forward. And this is just really how technology is moving. It's that doubling or that exponential pace of progress as the chips get faster themselves. But when you're looking at trends, it's not just about how fast the technology can move, it's the social aspects also. That's right, so yeah, anybody who's interested in science or technology, oftentimes they get stuck looking at that science or technology itself. And the thing is that you have to, nothing develops in a vacuum. So the tech may be moving along great. CRISPR, for example, you know, CRISPR technology and the gene editing technique is sort of ready to go, but there are things like norms and standards and regulations and we've got a totally new kind of president who's about to take office with people surrounding him who do not understand science and technology, who have made a lot of assumptions. And so regardless of how advanced that science or technology might be, it's still dependent upon things like, Congress in a lot of ways, you know, or other things like education and wealth disparity and demographics. So when we are forecasting the future of anything, we have to take into consideration all these other areas. You have to look at all of them. And so what are some of those basic components that you come into as you know, in your book it's, we're not gonna go into the entire book here, but what are some of the key points that people need to consider when they're starting to look at it? Sure, so I think the biggest thing to keep in mind is that the name of the game is trends, but you have to identify the right kind of a trend. And in a sense, everybody likes to do a year ahead or X number of years ahead and everybody wants to know how soon the future is. And the reality is that time doesn't run in a linear way. If it did, if developments in time ran in a chronological linear way, that would imply that we're all robots and that we're just carrying out somebody else's pre-programmed code. We're just executing on somebody else's code. So if you assume that we're not in Westworld and that we are not all running on somebody else's loop and that we do have free will, some people may not, there are plenty of people who don't think we do. If that's the case, then it's incumbent upon us to sort of force ourselves not to think in a linear way. Just kind of hard to do. And to get really comfortable with ambiguity. So the other key piece of it- Which again is not something people are into. No, especially not playing with this, right? Because while the methodology that's described in the book is something anybody can do, it has six steps, it's still rooted in evidence and data. And at some point, you sort of start off by looking at the fringe, which is this area of sort of unusual suspects that you wouldn't normally consider. It's not the trades, it's not tech crunch, it's looking for information in other places. You then have to look for hidden patterns. There's a method that's just, there's like a pretty easy way to do that. And you can also use regression analysis, which is what I do at work. So there is a method to this, a quantifiable method, but there is no definitive answer, which is difficult for a lot of people. And then the third step is to ask a lot of questions to make sure that the trend that candidate that you've identified is right and that you haven't missed anything. So it's first three steps identify the what that gets you to what is the trend worth following. And then the second half of the process is where are we? So what's the timing on this thing? Given that we have no idea what, five years from now exactly what it will look like, but what do we think the trajectory looks like? And then the fifth and sixth step are, what do we do about it? And that's actually the work that most people when they think of futurists, that's what they think about. So it's developing scenarios and testing out different probabilities and possibilities. And in fact, a lot of companies like to kick off their big brainstorming, like their big strategic planning and they like to go straight to scenarios. But if you haven't done any of the really important research and work before then, basically all you're doing is writing really shitty science fiction, which is fine. I mean, it's like a fun Saturday afternoon activity, but it's not gonna serve you really well professionally. So that's what's described in the book. And by the end of it, it's more to it than that, but these are the basic tools that every futurist who works professionally uses. Every futurist has some kind of methodology. Every futurist who's doing this well uses data and evidence. They're not just coming up with crazy ideas. But from my point of view, just as everybody learns the scientific method when they're in elementary school and every business person has to understand basic accounting. I really think 2017 is the year where everybody to learn the tools of a futurist. Because the future is coming faster and faster whether or not you want it to. Well, but here's the thing. I think a lot of people assume that there, you know, there is no, the future hasn't been written yet. There's no, right? There's nothing predestined. And again, if we accept the fact that we're not robots, what that implies is that each one of us has the ability to create our own preferred futures. So we just got to do it, right? But in order to do that, you do have to have a sense of what's coming. Okay, so here's a little bit of a go. You're talking about how it's not linear. Like things aren't just gonna sort of unfold perhaps. There's one example that in history that's always sort of amazed me is that well before there was cable television going throughout this country, we had satellites in space beaming those signals down to dishes, which is like such a huge technology jump leap past. But then it turned out actually just digging a ditch and running cable from house to house to house. Actually you could do more stuff with it. So it was a little more convenient and you could have internet later and stuff like that. Is there anything you see on the horizon that feels like it's gonna be sort of that big leap? Like we're sort of heading towards one thing, but there's something else that we're gonna do that's gonna be crazier in between. Like a big sort of shortcut. As though we were instead of just the, and I guess maybe one of them is how quick the automated car, self-driving car is really driving. Yeah, so AI is I think a really good. So AI and machine learning are part of autonomous vehicles. It may feel like we're standing at the sort of this huge explosion in autonomous vehicles, which in there I would lump in self-driving cars, but also like drones with sensitive void technology. Okay, and if you looked at everybody's press releases, Ford ratcheted up its timeframe and it's now at saying 2021 is the year that it'll start rolling out its fleet. Okay, so here's what I mean by elastic thinking and time not functioning in a sort of normal linear way. There were self-driving cars that GE was testing, I don't know, that GM was testing in the 50s. They had a self-driving car, they had a special track. So this is not brand new technology. Flying cars is another like everybody loves to make fun of, like everybody loves to hate on flying cars. And if you go back to the early, early 1900s, as soon as there was a plane that was taking flight, I'm sorry, as soon as there was a car, right? As soon as the Model T left the factory, people were trying to figure out how to make that thing fly. Can we put wings on it? There are from 19, there was a patent filed in 1919 that essentially took that Ford car and made it into a helicopter hybrid. And every decade, so every, you know, we keep thinking that this is a new idea, right? But if you go back every decade, there's been some kind of new flying car project. There's been some kind of new self-driving vehicle project. And even with AI, it feels as though we're standing on the precipice of this ground-breaking new technology. AI has its roots in the 1400s. Ada Lovelace in the 1800s put in the footnotes of a paper she was translating that someday computers might think, here's what's going on. If it's something that we haven't been following because we've been paying attention to the fringe, it feels new and novel. And so what's happening is we humans keep finding ourselves in these cycles every 20 years where technology overwhelms us and we feel like everything is new and novel. And by the way, there's a direct correlation between that happening and people suddenly calling themselves futurists and people fetishizing the future and technology. But what's, you know, we're just trying to make sense of all of this and we keep finding ourselves surprised and the whole goal of what I do for a living is to make sure that the future is more boring. If I've made the future more boring for you, right? It means that you're not as surprised, which is a good thing because people who have to make decisions should never make important decisions under duress, right? So when you think about the, so when I think about the future of self-driving vehicle, of like autonomous vehicles or self-driving cars, my clients always want the time frame broken up into like neat little chronologic like blocks, like two years, five years, because that aligns with their strategic business processes, but it's totally irrelevant because just because your calendar has two years doesn't necessarily mean that everything else, you know, lines up or moves at a rate that's similar. Yeah, and there have been many times when I've seen time frames of technology growth where the technology stays very much fringe or just in development for an incredibly long period of time before it'd be real development on that whatever it is peaks, and then it's an exponential rate up. And so if something is just moving along very slowly and not very many people know about it, it's very fringe, what is it that differentiates it? Are there traits that can differentiate something popping out and becoming like a real future trend? Well, so there are, I mean, there's four characteristics of what makes a trend. They'll sort of, but like the point of following trends is to understand the change that's happening. Yeah. A great example, and it never, nothing that's really worth paying attention to happens like overnight. There is no such thing as a trend just suddenly like popping up. If you go back to the 90s when there was this sort of shy British guy working in a lab in Scotland who'd been toiling away for like 20 years with, you know, spermatozoa, right? And then like after many, many, many failed experiments and like after all this work, he manages to clone a sheep, right? So this is Dr. Ian Willman and the world lost, collectively lost its mind, right? And- I can't believe somebody cloned a living being. That's right, that's right. The church of Scotland like invoked the name of the devil and like condemned him for what he had done. President, then President Clinton held a press conference, I had a press conference to reassure the American people that they were not going to be cloned humans running around rampant, right? And the thing is it felt as though this, this like this fringe, you know, when I again, fringe is not a pejorative term when I use it. So this work that had been happening outside of everybody's vantage point, out on the fringes, it's not like he just miraculously made all of this science sort of happen over like a week or two, right? It had been decades in development and his peers knew that but there weren't any conversations around ethics. There wasn't anybody really talking about it until he went public. Now we just had the same thing happen with China and CRISPR, and right, the editing that it's been doing, here in the United States, we don't have a national bioethics policy or set of norms or standards. And so what's happened, we keep winding up in these situations where everybody freaks out, you know, and lawmakers want actions, right? And then they make stupid decisions. There was some ban on, wasn't there on human animal hybrid clones? And no chimeras, no chimera research. That now, because that was the next thing, of course, people were heading right too. Right, and you know what wound up happening? We wound up with drugs, not demons, right? And basically everybody forgot, there was a great Pew study done right around then and a poll, a Gallup, I think it was Gallup and CDS. You know, you would have thought that like the world was just, like humanity was gonna be over. And you know, within just a few years, nobody thought about the fact that 80% of the things they consumed were somehow genetically modified. Like it just doesn't even, nobody even thinks about it. And unless you've somehow gotten a hold of your own hybrid seeds for everything that you consume and you've made your own, I'm sorry, every little nut hybrid, and you've composted and made your own completely organic material, like everything that we come in contact with has been somehow modified. And nobody cares, nobody thinks about it. I know, I think it's really funny. People I know, friends, they've been posting the backs of terribly processed foods and the thing that they're getting upset about is it says, contains genetically modified organisms on the back, you know, and they're not upset at like all the other ingredients, things that they're eating that's genetically modified. And I'm like, yeah. So that's like, but that's like, or it's like, yeah. Right, that's part of the problem. Like when people start trying to get mathy, or they start using like, sciencey terms out of context or without understanding them, you wind up with these problems. Genetically modified means a lot of different things and they're not necessarily all what everybody thinks that they mean. But again, this comes back to how technology and science is pervasive in every single thing that we do. And without having enough information, you wind up with public outcries and misinformation spreading. As much as everybody's concerned about fake news, there's plenty of fake science news and tech news, right, all over the place. We talk about that too. Yeah, it's too much of it, too much of it. So thinking about, you mentioned, we talked a little bit about AI, looking at the trends for AI, AI has been worked on for years and years. People are now predicting like 2045, 2065, that it will reach a human level intelligence. So again, like, are you completely... Here's those numbers are completely meaningless and let me break this down for you and explain why. And also add some context because we went through this exact same thing in the 60s when a whole bunch of science-y people and we're very excited about AI and we're making these predictions about how during the Cold War, AI would mean the advent of machines that could simultaneously translate Russian into English. So this was like the big driving factor, but we didn't have the compute power back then. So when this failed to like, so when whatever year it was, 1972 rolls around, right? And we don't have these magical machines, the government yanked funding. A lot of the pro, we entered what was called an AI winter. So here's, and here's why no futurist worth her salt would ever say by the year 2065, we'll have the singularity bullshit where machines are all talking to each other. Here's why, because that would assume that I know every single thing our government's about to do, right? And that would assume that I can predict how Donald Trump is going to act while in office. The thing is that the technology and that you can do the math and you can assume that Moore's law holds and everything else, and maybe that technology will soldier on, but a lot of the funding for this research and work comes directly from government grants, many of which could be completely dried up in the next year, among other things. So anyhow, these, and it's a dangerous thing to do that. I can tell you pretty definitive, like the stuff that's in our report, these are bona fide trends that we've been tracking and I feel very comfortable saying this is the stuff you need to pay attention to over the next 12 months. I will not tell you what the world will look like in the year 2017, but given what we know to be true today, these are the things that you need to be paying attention to and this is why. To do anything, I mean, it's nonsensical to say by this year in time, we'll be able to do X, Y, Z. All it's doing is, hopefully everybody's right because otherwise it just sets everybody up for more and more disappointment and then funding dries up and interest dries up and we wind up setting humanity backwards. So this is something that I've heard a lot about too when we talk about climate change interpretation, we talk a lot about not giving clear expectations because even if you end up curbing some of the effects of climate change, then you won't fulfill the prophecy you've set up and then deniers will tell you it's not real, right? So they're trying to get away from these sea level rise statistics of Venice will be underwater by 2030 and stuff like this. But so do you still feel comfortable making predictions that certain things will at some time exist? Well, yeah, but so here's the key. Here's what's going on. When we're confronted with something that we don't understand, our brain requires a shortcut. So we need some kind of analogy to make sense of that thing, right? And so what we tend to do to get our attention centered and focused is to tell a story. So just like any idiot can take a look at climate data, right, it's data, it's not politicized. It's just like numbers on a spreadsheet. Any idiot can look at that and see that we are in an Anthropocene, right? That we have changed the planet and we don't have to make a value judgment whether that's good or bad or meaningless, but it's different, right? But it's hard for people to understand what that means. And in order for them to make sense of it, we need to do things like, if things continue the way they are, Venice will be underwater. The best way forward is for everybody to be okay with some ambiguity and just understand that things are different, right? But most people won't do that, so we need the stories. Now the challenge with that and the thing that really sucks for us humans is that like to me, what is inconceivable is that science and technology have become politicized, right? I don't understand that, that doesn't make sense to me. Oh, that's, you gotta go way back, Amy. You gotta forget the future, look into the past. I mean, instead of the politics of today, just think of the politics of the church and how it conflicted with science so heavily. I mean, it's been a struggle all the way through from the beginning to allow facts to stand by themselves, even if they upset the balance of power that holds the politics in its pocket for that whatever age it is. That's right. It's always challenging somebody's powers. I mean, there was this whole, you know. The dominant paradigm, right? Yeah, there's like these weird things. It's like, you know, utility companies don't like the fact that people are putting solar panels on their roofs or not the people aren't, but more so that there's companies that are charging people and getting the solar panels put up there and they're charging back the utility companies. Right. But they like to let their car. Right, because upside of that is, I used to live, I spent a lot of time in Beijing and I used to live in Hong Kong and that smog that rolled in the other day, like that's kind of like the fact that you can't breathe outside. And I was in India over the summer and there were days that like, forget I'm not a runner, but I mean, like you couldn't be outside. And that's not just that it was a hot day. That is that we have put enough stuff into the air that is now trapped, I can't move around, you know. But again, people have to care enough that in mass they are willing to do something about it. Oh, absolutely. But my point I guess was just that it upsets a norm, a static norm, whenever new technology, new development comes out and new innovation, it's going to have ripples of, I mean, look at the poor post office. They're closing local, we used to have two post offices in town. Now we've got one and nobody's ever in line there because everything's coming through UPS or whatever. I mean, these new things come about, they change the balance. And that's a big, I think a bigger part sometimes of how the landscape, how technology changes the landscape. It's in all the other companies and things that we're used to having to shift, having to themselves change. So it's not just that now we have. But the problem is they don't want to. So and the biggest problem is for companies that are really successful, they are the ones who are at the worst, I think, at thinking through and really seeing the future, which is how you wind up with a blackberry that implodes. Conversely, there are companies like IBM and Nintendo, which have been around for more than 100 years. Nintendo started out as a playing card company, right? And yep, they manufactured Hanafuda beautiful playing cards. And they have, you can make fun of the Wii and some of their failed products, but the reality is that they've been at the forefront of game development this entire time. And guess what? They never pivoted. They still make those playing cards 100 years later. Although if Henry Ford really had his way and did have a monopoly on that business and maintain it, we'd all be driving that model to your model A maybe. Like, he never, he thought that was absolute perfection. This is what the car is supposed to look like for forever. And we'd probably still have that. And it was, it was. Do you think he would have been that averse to change? Yes, yeah. And it was, in fact, his company was losing. Just ensure of it. No, I am. Well, I mean, at the time, he was losing like 10, 20, 15% per year market share to these upstart companies who were like, maybe the car wasn't as great, but they painted it a different color. They gave a different slight look to it or put a little bit more charisma. And he thought that was just ridiculous because he built, because it was, you know, it was his invention on top of, it was his industry. And so he was extremely probably invested and proud of it too. But yeah, it took him a long time to change. In fact, it took almost losing to Ford Motor Company before he started coming out with other models. So, I mean, there's resistance there. And then there's, we have massive energy resistance to energy change because our biggest, what we call energy companies, are mining, refining and transportation companies. They don't really care that the end product is energy. That's sort of an after thought of it. So, yeah, if we did all of a sudden have the backyard hydrogen generator that would power our household and we would need it. The big Tesla battery. Yeah, so let's talk about that for a second. So, Amy, what do you foresee in the world of energy? Well, I have a Tesla Model S and I gotta tell you, I mean, that'd be fair. I'm not generating, I'm not generating my own energy. So, when I plug the car into the wall, I'm still drawing down the power grid, but nothing feels better than driving by gas stations, knowing that I will never ever have to pump gas into my car. Now, that being said. Great question. What state are you in? I'm in Maryland. In Maryland. Is Maryland's, cause this is always my concern about the electric car, right? Is in California, we have a pretty green grid. So, I know at least, I might be, if I'm driving an electric car, might be doing it on hydroelectric, could possibly be coming from wind, a little bit of solar. But if I was in the middle of Kentucky, and I don't know what Maryland is, but if I was in the middle of Kentucky, my Tesla would be running on coal. And there's something in the back of my mind where I'm driving a coal powered car depending on where I'm plugging in. Maryland is actually one of the most progressive states in the union. So, our energy comes from a combination of sources. But no, but here's what I was gonna say. So, we're still drawing down from the grid. This is one of those things where I think it's gonna be really difficult for people to change their mindset. I bet ya, there's a whole swath of Americans who feel like it's unpatriotic for me to be driving this car, right? Even though my oil is probably coming in from some other, right, it's probably not natural gas. Even though you've got one of the most made in America cars. Yeah, the car we made, yeah. So, this is gonna be the interesting question over the next couple of years. The Gigafactory, right, will be mass producing theoretically. Tesla's at some point without, you know, so it's made in America, but made in America without the assistance of American humans, right? So, it'll be made by American robots, you know. And this sort of refrain, this made in America refrain, I think has much more to do about jobs and people than it does about geography. And if our economy, our economy is, no economy is gonna flip itself positive overnight, which is a good thing, right? That would cause massive instability. So, you know, all these jobs that everybody thinks are somehow gonna materialize in the age of AI, right? Seems like it's probably misguided. And this is my circuitous way of saying, if I wanna understand the future of energy, you have to consider all of these other buckets, right? You have to, you know, the future of energy is tied very much so to the future of AI and the future of the economy and the future of demographics, right? As much as it is the future of oil subsidies and whatever politically is happening in Saudi Arabia and the natural gas reserves, you know, up north in the Arctic, right? So, and that's what a futurist does. A futurist would look not just at battery powered house, this cooled battery thing that Elon Musk is trying to invent, right? Cause the idea is, he also, they're- Solar panels, solar roof tiles, and then you have the battery that he makes and then you have the Tesla and it all next to him. And all of that makes sense. So again, that's another thing where if you just looked at that in a vacuum, you could probably say, oh, by the year 2035, you'll be possible to draw down and make all of our own electricity, but you have to consider all of these other vectors of change. So give us, give us please some hope. What do you see coming down the line that's exciting? What do you see that gives you some optimism for the future? So the optimum, I will, those are two questions in my mind. Yeah, absolutely. I'll answer what's coming down the pipeline that's cool second. First, I will tell you why there's a good reason to be optimistic. The reason to be optimistic is because we have no, you know, I will tell you the deep dirty secret of every futurist who does this for real, none of us knows the answer. Because we can't know the answer because only one thing can happen next. And that should give everybody great hope that you are in control of your own destiny. You're not living out somebody else's plan. And the truth is that because we cannot know exactly what's gonna happen next, the very best that we can do, which is what I described in the book, is to try to forecast and understand based on what we know to be true in the present and what we're seeing and modeling out different scenarios, what's likely to come, which allows us to create our own preferred futures, right? So that is great news for everybody. That means that you don't have the answer. I don't, if anybody's gonna have it, I'm gonna have it, right? I don't have the answer. None of us has the answer. The answer is up to us, right? I've got the answer. I've got the answer. What is it? It's actually more of a question than the answer, but I think I presume I know what the answer is. I know we're gonna go to the book real quick. I have one thing though. We're gonna go into a future where already automation has increased the jobs in this country by the tens of hundreds of, I mean, it's taken away, right? Hundreds of thousands of, I think people don't need to do manufacturing. Robots can do such a tremendous amount of it. Just like you point out, the tens left that's gonna create energy to think no people really need to work there. And at some point as the AI increases, I can imagine the scientists or even the futurists are gonna be replaced by AI and robots. My question is, what do you think people will do for work in a future of America? Well, yeah, is it gonna be, because it seems like it has to become a completely socialist society at some point where you're just given money to spend and live off or a house for free and the energy's free. I mean, at some point, there won't be anything worth having a human do. Again, that's the exact same conversation. Going back to keys, right? We have this conversation now. Every time there's a new technology, this refrain about UBI comes into play again. And the reality is that AI is not gonna take all of our jobs. It will displace portions of the workforce, but it'll also create new, I mean, there's a whole bunch of brand new jobs that are waiting to be created with people who will have to have new specialties that we've never thought of before. For example, there's an entire field of nano medicine that's really exciting. So nanobots and personalized medicine, that's gonna require somebody who has an MD as well as some kind of background in computer science or like an MD roboticist, right? And that's at the top level, but if you think about what comes below that, there are people who service the robots and mechanics who are able to do sort of micro robotics work. So it'll be entirely new fields that we haven't even conceived of before, which means explosions in the job market in other areas. But this is part of our lizard brains talking, right? We get freaked out, scared every time there's something new and we assume that it's going to obviate the humans, right? When it comes to tech. So anyhow, but again, it's not bad news. It's bad news for some people, but it's not bad news in general. Well, I don't wanna keep you any longer. We've kept you so long. The signals are talking why today's fringe is tomorrow's mainstream as the book, all this conversation has come from. Amy, thank you so much for joining us tonight. It's just been wonderful getting to chat with you. You are a wealth of knowledge. Thanks so much for having me. Thank you, Amy. And where can people find information about you? Sure, so the book is available everywhere. You can go to your local independent bookstore owner. Hopefully, if there are any where you live. If not, it's number one bestseller right now in Amazon so you can go there too. And then our annual tech report is free. We make it free every year. So if you go to SlideShare and look up the Future Today Institute, it's a giant document. So don't plan on reading it in one sitting, but the book will tell you how to think about what's coming. The trend report will tell you what is coming in the next year. I think that's exciting. So thank you very much. This is just wonderful to be able to have. It's a great resource for people who have never thought this way to maybe start considering how to think about the future. Thank you. Thanks, everybody. Thank you very much. Have a wonderful evening. Thanks. And that was Amy Webb. She has fantastic things to say. Definitely a deep thinker there. Yeah. And she did give her a whole lot of weight even though she is from Russia. I know, we tried. We tried. We really tried. She was keeping it close to the vest. That's right. That's right, but that's okay. That's how you get a book out there. That's true. Now we have to buy the book. Or rent it from your local library? You could get it from a library because we know libraries are awesome. Let's keep libraries in business. Why don't we? We are going to take a very quick break and we'll be back with, you know what we do best? Not it's not. Prestidigitation. That's right. We're no-sterdomising the rest of the show. We're not Amy Webb-ing the show. We are no-sterdomising the show. We'll give you the answers to the future. And it's not prestidigitation. It's not magic. Prestidigitation is magic. Prognostication. Trying to tell the future. There we go. There's both. Dictionary. I'm gonna pull a rabbit out of a hat after the break. Wait, I don't need rabbits. I just need my son to go to bed. That gives me a new prediction, hang with me. Yeah. All right, we'll be back in just a few moments. Stay tuned for predictions from twists. Things you've heard with more than the line of reason shows the way that's a hypothesis in patience, honey. All right, everybody. If you want to help send my child to bed, maybe it would be awesome if you, you know, checked out the twist calendars. I was counting and I think we have something like 18 calendars that are unrecounted for. Da, da, da. Yeah, we're down to the wire. Fewer than 20 calendars available at this point in time for the twist 2017 calendar. Blair made the calendars. Blair made these amazing calendars that are very pretty that we're gonna have one hanging on our wall here to help us get through the school year. Find out what are some really awesome days like National Panda Day, Blair's favorite. Save a Spider Day, another one of Blair's favorites. You wanna see the calendar? Kai wants to see the calendar. Kai can see the calendar. twist.org is the place to go if you'd like to get a calendar. Additionally, we are going to San Francisco in a couple of weeks, the SF Sketch Fest. It's going to be a whole lot of fun. We're doing a live show at Cal Academy of Sciences SF Sketch Fest Nightlife. So there's a lot of comedy going on at the Academy that night. And I think we're gonna be funny too. I didn't say that. I don't know what we're gonna do. We're just gonna do our show the way that we do it. 40 minutes of it, it'll be very nice. And if you were interested in that, please go to our Facebook page, Facebook.com slash this week in science under the events. It's one of our events, January 19th. It'll be so much fun. It's way different. It's a different calendar than last year, isn't it Kai? Very different. Okay. Twist also has other merchandise. It's available. If you are interested, head over to our Zazzle store. The Zazzle store can be found by going to twist.org and clicking on the wonderful Zazzle link. When you get there, you'll find out all the wonderful things that are available thanks to Blair. She has set up this store very nicely to show off our logo on a wonderful goodies for you. We have sweatshirts and hats and tote bags. There's a mammoth pillow, a lumbar mammoth pillow. You can even have... It's in the calendar, right Kai? Thanks. We also have wrapping paper from Blair's Animal Corner. So many things, wonderful pictures, twist logo, Blair's Animal Corner, all on the Zazzle store. So go to twist.org and click on the Zazzle store link and you'll be able to find it all. If you are more interested in just sending us some money, we accept that too. That's very helpful if you do that. You can do that a couple of ways. One way is to just go to our... That's right, show us the money as Blair is demonstrating right now below me. That's pretty funny. It's like the money sprinkler. I don't know what that was. Anyhow, on our website, if you head over to our website and scroll on down, there's this amazing support twist donate button. You can click on it, makes it really easy to donate through PayPal if you like PayPal. And a lot of you have been doing this over the holidays and I just wanna say thank you so much for all of your support. Oh my goodness. Oh my goodness. My monthly foray into the PayPal account. I was very happily surprised. And thank you everybody who took the time and was generous enough to give through this donation button. Thank you so much. It really means a lot. Another way that you can do it is through Patreon. And through Patreon, you are able to just click and become a patron. Get going. It makes it easy. You can donate however you like, how much you like on a per episode or monthly basis. And you get fun little gifts for each amount that you are able to donate. And going through Patreon, it's fun. Sometimes you get advanced notice of videos that we're sending out or other things through Patreon. It's a great platform for becoming a part of the community and helping us produce twists on a weekly basis. Just that click, become a patron, make it nice and easy. But if you are unable to support us in any way financially or buying merchandise, that kind of stuff, totally get it. But if you are able to help us by sharing us with your friends, family, coworkers, telling people about twists, helping us get more people listening and watching twists, then you're really helping us out as well. And everyone who's done all of that, everyone who's joined started supporting us on Patreon. Guys, we're growing and it's all because of you. All of you out there, you are the ones who are helping us grow and who are helping us become more of what we wanna be. We couldn't do this without you. We really thank you for your support. Thank you. I deal with the people that repeatedly insist that you show them real proof that your powers exist. Hey, convince some real skeptics or a cease and desist. For us to miss six months from now, you folks will not be missed. What is the moral that we all must learn, especially those of us with money and money? And we are back with more This Week in Science. Prediction show. We are back with the prediction show. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Exciting. It was a wonderful interview with Amy Webb in the first half of the show, but now it is our turn. It's our turn. How did we do last year? Let's start there with 2016. How did we do? Let's get the bad news out of the way first. Yeah, good news, bad news. What did we do? What did we not get right? This is fun. This is the fun part of the show. Okay, I predicted that the LHC will discover that there was this unpredicted bump in the data in 2015, and people were like, oh. The particle will change all the physics. Right, is it going to be the graviton? What's it going to be? And I predicted that it was just going to be a bump and not new physics. And you know what? I was right. Ding, ding, ding, ding. Physics stayed standard. Horts to Kike. I also said I wasn't following the rumors. I didn't actually trust the rumors in the scientific grapevine, and I listened to Justin, and I said, gravitational waves will not be detected again. So, meh. Well, you still had like a 90% success rate with that prediction, right? Seriously, yeah. No, because you were always wrong the prediction that they would be. And I was always... Oh, well, then it was Justin that had a 90% accuracy. Success rate with that one. Thankfully, this year, last year, I switched at the last minute. You did? Well, we'll get to that in a second. Oh, my gosh. OK, OK, OK. Continue. I also said John Wolf, or John Snow in wolf form will live to become King of Game of Thrones and Mary Daenerys, and we haven't gotten there yet. So, still... Still on the air. It's a negative because it hasn't happened yet. Right. Right. I said the Arctic will melt in the winter night. Yes, it was downright balmy there. I think I win that point. You do, for sure. I said 2016 will be the next warmest year on record. I don't think that's a hit. The first six months were the hottest year. Yeah. Excuse me, but your prediction quite clearly says the next warmest year, making it the number two. I mean, no. Yeah, it's the next warmest. Not the warmest, the next warmest. Justin, you know what it means. Well, because I predicted that it would be the warmest. Hey, it's this week in science, not this week in semantics. Let's... Very good. Sometimes it's both. Sometimes it's both. I predict that in 2017 I'll burn Justin. Look at it. It happened this week. It did happen. Private spaceflight will... I said, well, it will take it to the next level with suborbital flights. And no, there were not really any private spaceflight suborbital flights, but there was some awesome stuff with Blue Origin and SpaceX and stuff. But I didn't get that one right. I also said the Hyperloop pod tests will not be successful. They were successful. Hyperloop is still on track. So that's minus two right there for me. Sci-Fi happening now. Yeah, okay. The Juno mission will be wildly successful, again, showing NASA capable of doing amazing things on a tight budget. I think that was a plus one right there. I mean, they did exactly what they said they were going to. And then I said, and an expanded budget will lead to an expansion of proposed missions to possibly life-bearing moons in our solar system. And you know what NASA didn't announce today? Anything about going to Enceladus or Titan or any of the cool places, they want to go to like asteroids that they can mine and stuff. So I think we're, yeah. So there are two missions to asteroids at this point in time, but not to life-bearing moons. So... CRISPR will continue to wow us with new discoveries about life. That was so general, but yes, I got it right. And then after last year's epigenome description papers, expect to see more studies detailing how the epigenome genome influences organisms of all kinds. There are more of those, lots more epigenome. And then I said, Twist will enjoy a fantastic live show in New York City, which we did. We did, that was incredible. It was great. And I'm very sorry that we are not returning to New York City this year, but hopefully next year we will be able to return. I think we can only do one January away mission in time. So we'll have to fight for it next year. But NYC, that was good last year. And I want to say thank you to Ares for inviting us to the New York City STEM Festival. Okay, Justin, how about your prediction? Okay, so my prediction was 2016 would be the hottest year on record, not the next hottest, but hottest year on record. I also predicted Home in the Letty would be dated into the three million-ish plus range challenging Lucy as our early ancestor, which did not happen. There were challenges to Lucy in a sense that they found lots of astro-lipthicans outside of that range far afield. So much more common. And in fact, Home in the Letty and the study into it has last year sort of given a clear picture of what they're calling the braided stream of human ancestry. Meaning it was an experiment, that crossbreeding that we've talked about a little bit between Neanderthal and early modern man. Actually, that sort of crossbreeding took place between hominids, they now believe, over and over and over again to the point where there isn't going to be a linear backward ancestor, but much more of a interchange experiment thing that ultimately resulted. Evolutionary radiation, you know, the way things evolve. I predicted that bad-brained junk branded and prepaid propaganda substituted for science over and over again, and I guess that's already going on. Again, 2016, I predicted would be the years, the years scientists finally have had enough of it. They began fighting back by publishing several studies that suggest the political ideology of the Republican Party doesn't actually exist. I think they proved that without the help of science, actually. I also went on to say horoscope writers feeling the loss of or fearing the loss of readership would begin to get very specific, filling out readers by name with direct warnings. Hey Blair, avoid escalators today. Kiki, the answer to the pub quiz in the pub quiz is Fenris and Justin, it's not an aspirin, don't take it. I don't know that they've, because I don't read horoscopes, even in order to see if I was right, I don't know if they got any more specific than they were in the past. Said that CRISPR-Cas9 would make news highlights throughout the year. Mosquito, oh gosh, I can't even read this part Oh, the malaria experiment is gonna get deployed after early success. With a what? The mosquito malaria experiment gets deployed after early success. And this was a CRISPR thing where the gene drive thing. Right. Which was- There was a conglashment on that this year actually. In 2000, I see last year, 2016, Florida said, no, you were not- Right, but here's the thing. I said, with a, I have a 2017 prediction. I have a this year prediction in the middle of that is that this is 2017 would be the year malaria is actually eradicated. And Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, NETs would be repurposed as soccer goal NETs. I hadn't heard that one. No. No. Yeah, in 2017, so are you copying and pasting that for 2017? I'm borrowing that one. That one's gonna be in my prediction. I feel like you have to because you already wrote it in stone last year. Yeah. Several new drags will be developed to target specific gene functions in diseases that were discovered using CRISPR-Cas9. I think that's, I think that's correct. Well, it might not be. It's more like proteins and stuff than gene functions. But that's the same thing, proteins that they create. Mama said to knock you out. Using CRISPR-Cas9 to knock out specific genes in order to study the effects downstream will lead to a Nobel Prize in 2016. I don't think that happened. Once again, once again, this is in writing. I say no gravity waves. However, that's what I had in writing. This is a clip of what's written from last year. And I remember because last year, Kiki had decided to go no gravity waves. Then I thought, I better take the other side of the coin just for balance. And I said, this is the year we find gravity waves. I feel like we need to roll back the tape on that. Yeah, yeah, we will eventually. But, and then very shortly after I was proved correct. Right. I also predicted that the, my football prediction, Super Bowl prediction, which I do every year, I said the Denver Broncos would lose the Super Bowl. They did get there, but they won it. Yeah. Well, at least you got them into the Super Bowl. I got them there. That's great. No luck on that. All right, that's what Justin predicted and how he did last year. A little bit. Yes, a little bit. How'd you do Blair? How'd you do Blair? Yeah. A little bit of a mixed bag. I predicted that we will find microscopic life in space. Tess will be feverishly conducted to see if it is a contamination, a mistaken reading or a real extraterrestrial life, but results will be inconclusive. No, none of that. We will discover parthenogenesis in a species that has not previously been observed. So there are a bunch of studies about it being more common than they had thought previously, less of a last resort and more of a normal way of doing things and a lot of species, snakes, termites, but they didn't find anything new. They didn't find a new genera that did parthenogenesis this year. So it was mostly a no. I will release the 2017 if Blair's Animal Corner calendar and we will sell out. Well, I released the calendar. I got a calendar, but I haven't sold out yet. TBD on the sell out, come on, help me be right, guys. White Nose Syndrome in bats will be completely eradicated in a geographical region due to new treatments available. So if I had stopped at eradicated in a geographical region, I would have been right because they found areas where the bats were naturally not susceptible to the disease, but it didn't happen from treatments yet. They did start treatments in the wild, but that hasn't happened yet. And in fact, didn't you report on White Nose actually spreading to the West Coast this year? So it's spreading. Yeah, I was in Washington this year. Whoops. A mammothophant. I can't even say it. A mammoth elephant hybrid. Mammothophant. You've got too many mamas in there. No. Will happen to my chagrin. No, thankfully that did not happen. A vaccine for toxoplasmosis will go on the market, but it will be for your cat. That did not happen. Instead, we found out that most likely, toxoplasmosis has no effect on human behavior. Nonsense. I don't remember that story. I remember Justin reporting on that study, but it wasn't conclusive. Yeah, it was a very small sample size. They also did find out this year that chimpanzees were essentially running at wild cats when they were infected with toxoplasmosis. So you're still out on the toxop. I also predicted successful replacement of bodily organs with 3D printed ones in a human. No. No, we're on the way, but it didn't happen. Cuttlefish will be discovered to use three kinds of camouflage, visual, electroreception, and now audio. Nope. But they do math? But they do math. Okay. Yeah. So I mean, it's still pretty cool. Better than the production. They still are pretty surprising. Tartigrades will find new ways to shock us in 2016. They are like onions. This is a big yes. There were a bunch of stories, my favorites being that they were able to awaken them after being frozen for 30 years and they found radiation shields in their genome. Yeah. They, yeah, that was a big one. There will be at least one question about climate change in the main presidential debates, but the issue will still be skirted. I was so wrong about this. There were no direct questions in the debates about it. And in fact, less than 2% of the total talking time in all of the debates were spent on climate change and environmental issues combined. A total of about five minutes, all of it by? Bernie. Hillary Clinton. Water rationing will take place in the U.S. in summer of 2016. This was actually a big fat yes, though you couldn't find it in a lot of newspapers. It was because it happened in California and they were called emergency drought regulations. But they were, it was absolutely water rationing. Spiders will find new ways to terrify and fascinate us in 2016. They certainly did. My favorite one was when male widow spiders would bite through the exoskeleton of juvenile females to inseminate them before they were old enough to want to eat the males. Yeah, just preempt that whole thing. Yeah. Fighting back. I'll tell you another, the water rationing did also take place in Flint, Michigan. That is true. New methods of traumatic insemination will be discovered. So not only that previously mentioned thing about spiders, but twisted winged parasites inseminated females through traumatic insemination in their neck while living as a parasite inside of a bee. What a life. So that was a big ding, ding, ding, ding, ding, ding. HIV vaccine trials will begin. This did not happen, but instead a trial of genetic scissors to cut it out of the genome of the infected did begin. So almost. Crows will continue to show us how smart they are. Absolutely, we talked about crows all year. They used tools, they created tools, they cheated and stole from other birds, and they communicated with each others on how to avoid danger. So crows definitely did that. And my last one was, coffee will once again be shown to have positive health effects. So we didn't see many of those studies this year for humans, but we did have one particular study that we didn't actually talk about on the show that I found about coffee-infused foam that removed lead from contaminated water. Right, really. So kind of a yes. Kind of, yeah. I'd say I got like a 60% on that. You just said positive health effects. Yeah, I mean, coffee and positive were both in that story you found. Positive health effects too. Well, that's health effects because then your water isn't contaminated anymore. The fish aren't dying. Yeah, nor are we. From lead. All right, so this is, we've gone through our predictions for 2016. We got some right, we got some wrong, which, you know, I think we're right up there with Nostradamus. Now is the time to predict 2017. Woo! All right, Justin, what you got? No proof of dark matter despite multiple new tests scheduled for 2017. In fact, earlier signals that it might exist will fall down under further scrutiny. Fun will go completely dark during the day in America. If it stays this way, God or perhaps many gods will show up in person to explain everything to humanity. Otherwise, science is usual, folks. Microbial influence on human health becomes so well understood that fast food joints begin asking which kind of bacteria you would like with your meal. That could be interesting. Gene editing goes public, but much like the 3D printer only a few people can do anything useful with it. There we go. One such application of gene editing will be applied by mad citizen scientists who alters the cognitive abilities of three animals. A pet mouse, feral cat, and accidentally a colony of ants. By the end of 2017, the mysterious hedge fund company will spend billions to fund a global ad campaign encouraging people to picnic more often. Ha-ha. The mind microbiome connection leads to a startling discovery when political party affiliation is directly linked to specific strains of gut bacteria. As is the blue dress, gold dress phenomena. That's also your gut. Bill Nye, the science guy will be forced to change the parental rating on his new show from G to R. After finding no way around cursing through every media interview in which the reporter mentions the current day's weather at their location in reference to global warming even though the actual show content is unchanged. The Chinese ivory trade will come to a slow and incomplete stop. Meanwhile, elephants will begin to trade in human teeth. Home robotics will have a major breakthrough when engineers finally realize that people don't actually care about artificial intelligence but really want artificial personality. Sales of both Flatterbot and the Yes Man Echo Chamber 500 outsell all other home appliances in 2017 even though they serve no functional purpose. AI will make some progress, however, as pre-recorded robo calls are replaced by live robots who go door to door. Subjectivity of these visits will be called into question. At first, as the door to door robots don't actually seem to ask questions but rather tell people how they will answer survey questions. But after a while it is clear then the robots know exactly how we will answer the questions before knocking on our door. I'll say whatever you want, Mr. Robot. I'll say whatever you want. NASA will be given a new directive to focus only on space exploration followed by severe budget cuts. The Affordable Care Act will be repealed and replaced with a reality TV show resembling the Hunger Games. Only instead of energetic young people running through violent gauntlets, it's tired old sick people. Oh, no. Are you writing a novel or doing predictions? I know. Next year's prediction show will be hosted by a futurist algorithm. In my Super Bowl prediction of 2017, chiefs versus cowboys, cowboys win with a score of 24-17. All right. He's getting, he's getting all. You always have to get the football one in there. I should always have a Super Bowl prediction. I think a little of those. A couple of them. You might, you might get it, right? I don't know. I don't know, Justin. I've got hopes on all of them already. A little farfetched, maybe. But you know, what do I know? I'm not a futurist. The future, as our futurist earlier explained, is not ours to know. It is ours to make. And if I can get this home gene editing kit to work, there will be a super colony of ants far more intelligent than your average hedge one. Asking for picnics. Don't have far to go. All right, Blair, what is your set of 2017 predictions? Oh, mine are a little less dystopian. I predict more exciting news about slime molds. Successful replacement of bodily organs with 3D printed ones in a human. I'm doing this one again. Fingers crossed. You can, it's fine to try it again. Yeah. I mean, you guys did Gravity Waves for like 10 years. 10. So I'm taking the 3D printed organs. Tartigrades will continue to be the gift that keeps on giving. 2017 will be a very wet year in California. So everyone will forget about the drought and water crisis. That's pretty locked in already. An AI written TV show will premiere on a streaming network and gain vast popularity. It makes me wonder if that hasn't already happened. It's a good question. I don't think so. There's so many for me to wait. There has been an AI written movie. Yeah, a short. It's a short movie. I watched it the other night. It was, it's pretty clear they're not writing TV yet. Yeah. It was, it felt very much like a dream, like a fever induced dream. Anyway, I also predict that in 2017, President-elect Trump will withdraw from his plan to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement. Meaning he'll stay in there. Meaning wishful thinking by Blair. Yes, exactly. Self-driving cars will enter the roads in full force. And start working for ridesharing apps without a driver or a wheel. With many mishaps in the first week. A new political party will surface with the main platform being the secession of blue states along the West Coast. I think that's already happened. Eco-tote. Oh, yeah, you guys. Right, yeah. Citizen-led climate action will increase with marches and demonstrations on the rise in the coming year. Restorative vision tests will run and work in a primate species. I could see that happening. I mean, we had it in mice, right? And yep. In mice very recently. Yep, yep, primates are next. And there's some stuff that has been tested in humans, but kind of, yeah, okay. And the tools will arise for a same-sex couple to have a child together that is genetically a reflection of just the two of them. Pretty close. And my very last one, twists, they're gonna smash them dead at the SF sketch fest. There we go. Weapons? No, yeah, no, I don't think, yeah. We're gonna smash everybody by making them all so excited about science and laughing so hard. Yeah, it's like the TV theater thing, break a leg. You don't really want people to break a leg. You're not gonna be easily gonna smash people. Oh, I have to apologize to my daughter. We're gonna have a really good time. Absolutely, winter play. SF sketch fest. I bet all the kids are gonna show up with broken legs. No, it really hurt. All right, you guys, here are my predictions. Blair, great predictions. Justin, great predictions. Here are my predictions. Climate. In 2017, it's going to be cooler and drier for much of the West, thanks to La Nina conditions in the spring. But then La Nina will go away and then the West can expect heat waves and drought all over again. So forget all your pretty wetness. That's my dream phone music. Husband, get on the computer and then you'll know that I'm still doing my show and my child is still awake. CRISPR and gene editing, the Chinese will report positive results for their cancer tests this year. Hemophilia treatment will begin clinical trials this year. A treatment for gene linked blindness will start clinical trials and a different one will receive FDA approval. So I think there's gonna be two big things for gene linked gene editing stuff. And Zika and malaria will see successful vaccine trials. And when it comes to CRISPR's patent ruling, I think UC Berkeley is gonna get it. I'm calling it for UC Berkeley in 2017 for CRISPR. Wait, what is that back up a little bit? What's this, what's the patent thing on it? Yeah, so a team of UC Berkeley researchers basically put the first patent application in for CRISPR, but then another MIT Broad Institute researcher, they did something with CRISPR and had a different patent application in. And even though the second, the MIT Broad Institute patent application came in second, it was given precedent to the patent office, basically wanted to give them the patent because they got theirs on a fast track somehow that UC Berkeley didn't. And so then there was a big lawsuit where Berkeley's like, no, we got ours in first, we should have gotten the patent. And so, yeah. And when you say UC Berkeley, it won't be UC Berkeley, it'll basically be the UC system which operates its patents as the state of California. As the state, this is important. As the state, there's special cuckoo powers of a state having a patent on something that no individual can. So that's, it's a crazy, whenever the UC system is involved in patents, it's a really bizarre thing because it's the state of California technically that has that patent, so. Oh, that's interesting. Yeah. Oh, that's interesting. I hadn't actually thought of it from that perspective before. Yeah, and that's why, and that's why once the UC system or the state has a patent on something, it's very difficult for anybody else to do anything patent-y on it because they're like, we're the state, it's already state property, you can't touch it. Like, there's weird things. There's weird caveats that even if- State's gonna own it. State has like- Anyway, so I should say the state of California is going to get this patent. You're right. I think the Berkeley lawsuit will win out but because the patent that they filed is actually a state patent, not an individual. Interesting. Then moving on, optogenetics. I think that we're gonna see trials of optogenetics in human eyes. That we're gonna see, the eyes basically are neural pathways to the brain and I think we are gonna see trials of putting optogenetic genes into the eyes of people to see if they can have effect on brain function in 2017 and along those lines, I think there are going to be early human studies for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease using light and optogenetics along those lines that will have promising results. The eyes, the windows to the neural pathways to the brain. Yeah, so was it on, there was a story this last, like a week this last week when I was taking holiday and not looking at things and somebody sent me a story that I am not finding the link to unfortunately, so I can't thank them for the link to say thanks on the air but they basically said that this study, they used 40 Hertz pulsed light and at first they had optogenetically modified mice so that they put the blue light and pulsed it on the brain and at this 40 Hertz and it changed the function of the brain so that the brain decided to clean itself up and got rid of the Alzheimer's plaques in mice and then they were like, oh, what will happen if we do this pulsing the light at the eyes and not directly into the brain and it did the same thing. So basically just these mice, they had to look at this light every day to make it happen but these light, 40 Hertz pulsed light through the optic pathway somehow stimulated neural cleanup processes that had stopped so that the Alzheimer's plaques got cleaned up in the mouse brain so I think it's gonna happen in human brains this next year. People are gonna investigate this heavily this year. Plastic people are gonna start changing the refresh rate on their monitors. Right, maybe there's an app. Right, exactly. And then space, Cassini is going to make an unexpected discovery as it passes through the rings of Saturn to its death. Cassini is going to die next year, this we know but I think it's going to make an unexpected discovery as it does so and then for Juno on Jupiter I actually think it's just gonna find what we think it's gonna find and it's not gonna really do anything unexpected even though it's awesome it's there. And but then there's a robot mission from China, the Changi Five lunar mission go into the moon, it's gonna go to the moon and it's gonna grab bits of rock and it's gonna come back and it's going to reinvigorate the space race. Next year, so I think. And then there's also going to be the event horizon telescope that's like a bunch of telescopes all working together they're gonna take a photograph of the event horizon of the supermassive black hole at the center of our galaxy and it's gonna look really pretty. I don't know if it'll look pretty but we'll learn things about. Don't make it look pretty. Yeah, we're gonna take the first photograph of the event horizon of our black hole next year. It's gonna be awesome. Artificial intelligence, I think self-driving trucks not self-driving cars, not autos in cities but I think trucks on highways are really gonna begin to be used regularly and there won't really be any accidents reported other than for lots of lost jobs for truck drivers. And then microbes, we're gonna discover more. I mean, a side note of that is I've heard that this technology is there and they've been wanting to institute it but yeah, like the rate at which they do because there's 100,000 jobs. In very powerful unions for the most part. Very powerful unions today. There are lots of companies that want to serve money. Tomorrow when the staff is a robot. Yeah. Microbes, I think we're going to discover a lot more specifically how microbes are tied to various human diseases like diabetes and the development of diabetes. Physics, I think physics will remain standard. I like that one. Yeah. I'm gonna hitch that one. I like that one. I think there will be a result however that will corroborate dark matter particles existing in the galactic halo but axions will not explain dark matter in 2017. Neither will there be a major graviton discovery at all. But then... I gotta start making that one over here. Yeah. LIGO along with the Italy's Virgo in conjunction will detect at least a dozen gravitational wave collisions in 2017 and begin pinpointing a location of origin. So, where are these things? Black holds colliding all around our universe. I think that's gonna start happening next year. And synthetic biology, there's a project called yeast 2.0 that has this goal of creating a synthetic yeast by 2017. I think it's going... It's because this group has pinpointed it at 2017, they're gonna miss their goal. So, no synthetic yeast in 2017. Maybe 2018, but not 2017. That's what I'm saying. And I think for astronomy, TWIS is going to travel to central Oregon to watch the solar eclipse in 2017. There's gonna be a solar eclipse? Yeah. Wasn't that in your predictions? You predicted that. You know, God's gonna come. You're dark during the day. I didn't know there was gonna be one. Oh my gosh. All right, Mr. DeGrasse. All right. All right, Nostradamus, you. All right, you guys. I don't know what you all in the world out there think of our predictions. What are we gonna get right? What are we gonna get wrong? But it's always fun to kind of look at where things are and kind of take a peek and take a guess and say, oh, what do I think is gonna happen? What's gonna work and what's not gonna work? And I think it's always, I think it's always fun. I'm gonna add one more. Okay, you can. We're not done yet. I'm gonna predict that the gravity waves we found in 2016 will be found to be noise in 2017. No. No. And that the new and more advanced Lego will have to refute those earlier findings by not finding anything. Stick it to my guns. One more year. Why not? Let's go for it. All right. So the man who claimed that last year he I swear just because Kiki finally said there weren't gonna be any and I was like, that seems like, you know, you gotta bounce. Now she's saying they're gonna find a whole bunch. So I'm back to, they're not gonna find anything. In fact, they're gonna have to take away what they found. I think we gotta roll back the tape. I do. I have to hear it to believe it. We'll have to figure that one out. Yeah. The show hasn't been on tape for quite some time. I'm sorry. It used to be. It used to be. Not so much in here. Giant air quotes for the audience. I predict twists will not be on tape this year. Ha ha. Remember when we, instead of, remember when the podcast was actually a cassette cast and we used to like. Yes. Recordings of the show. Oh, it was on something called the radio. It was. We used to mail them out to listeners. I never did that. Look, a set's in an envelope and then. I never did that. I never did that. Like a set. Never did that. Fill with another show. Yeah. That was like in the mid 80s. Rewriting history here. That never happened. Just I'm just here to be a. Truths here. Sorry. Sorry. You guys, thank you for sticking with us through this show of predictions, prognostications, as Blair would say, of pressed digitization does pop and lock. But I was I lost my rabbit. We're looking forward to many, many great shows with you here. In 2017, this is show six hundred. We've done six hundred of these suckers. It is, you know, by the end of this year, we'll have at least 50 more, right? Let's keep it going. Fifty more out the door, you guys. Let's make it happen. It's time now for me to mention our calendar again, because we have this calendar. Eighteen of them are left. And go to twist.org to find out more about the twist. Two thousand seventeen. Blair's animal corner calendar. Additionally, go to facebook.com slash this week in science. If you are interested in finding out more about our event at California Academy of Sciences, sketch fest nightlife on January 19th. Shout outs to all of our Patreon sponsors. Thank you to Chris Clark, Paul Disney, G. 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Twist is, of course, also available as a podcast. Just Google this week in science in your iTunes directory. Or if you have one of those probably calling in mobile type devices, you can put in twist the number four droid app in the Android Marketplace or simply this week in science and anything Apple Marketplacey. For more information on anything you've heard here today, show notes will be available on our website. That's at www.twist.org. Huh? www.twist.org. One more time. I was writing it down. www.senseforworldwideweb.twist. That stands for this week in science.org. That stands for organization. Yeah, where you can also make comments and you can start conversation with the hosts or other listeners. Hey, or you can contact us directly. Email kirsten at kirsten this week in science.com. Justin at twistmanainatgmail.com or player at playerbazz at twist.org. Just be sure to put twist to WIS somewhere in your subject line or your email will be spam filtered into oblivion. You can also hit us up on the Twitter where we are at twist science at Dr. Kiki at Jackson Fly and at players in Asheri. We love your feedback. If there is a topic you would like us to cover or address a suggestion for an interview, a haiku that comes to you in the night, please let us know. We I predict that we will be back here next week. One more. And I also predict that you'll join us for more great science news. And if you've learned anything from the show, I predict you remember. You messed it all up, Justin. It's all in your head. In 2017, there was nothing better. This week in science, this week in science, this week in science, this week in science, it's the end of the world. So I'm setting up a shop, got my banner on furrowed. It says the scientist is in. I'm going to sell my advice show them how to stop the robots with a simple device. I'll reverse the warming with a wave of my hand. And all it'll cost you is a couple of grand. This week, science is coming your way. So everybody listen to what I say. I use the scientific method for all that is worth. And I'll broadcast my opinion all over the earth. This week in science, this week in science, this week in science, science, science, this week in science, this week in science, this week in science, science, science, science. I've got one disclaimer and it shouldn't be news. That what I say may not represent your views, but I've done the calculations and I've got a plan. If you listen to the science, you may just better understand that we're not trying to threaten your philosophy. We're just trying to save the world from jeopardy. This week in science is coming your way. So everybody listen to everything we say. And if you use our methods that are rolling to die, we may rid the world of toxoplasma. Got the eyes. This week in science, this week in science, this week in science, science, science, this week in science, this week in science, this week in science, science, science, I've got a laundry list of items I want to address from stopping global hunger to dredging Loch Ness. I'm trying to promote more rational thought and I'll try to answer any question you've got. So how can I ever see the changes I seek when I can only set up shop one house, listen to what we say? This week in science, science, science, this week in science, this week in science, this week in science, science, science, this week in science, this week in science, this week in science, this week in science. My child is finally asleep. He's passed out on the couch over there. It's all wrapped up in his comforter cover. He's got the comforter with the comforter cover over it and he got himself wedged in between all of it in like a sleeping bag. Why is that child not in bed? Because his father had to go on a work trip this week and didn't have any help putting him to bed. That'll do it. I tried to put him to bed and it did not happen. Yeah, that will do it. Yeah, I think he was very excited to be in here for a while. Yeah. I think he would have preferred to be more of the show but I told him he wasn't allowed. It's like, hell, my show will get you your own show later. Yeah, it's my show. Be the intern for a few years. Then we'll talk about it. My intern before you to get to be on the show. Yeah. We're in at least like three weeks. Yeah. When's this eclipse? It's in the calendar Blair. I put it in the calendar. You put it in the calendar. When did I put it in the calendar? I put a lot of things in the calendar Kiki. I don't even know any. August 21st. Ooh, total solar eclipse. It's right after World Mosquito Day. Well, I can't go then. I gotta stay in San Francisco to celebrate World Mosquito Day. August 21st and it is, I mean, I don't know if there's gonna be camping areas left to go see it in Eastern Oregon but right a little bit north of Bend is where I wanna go. Great. Yeah. Let's do it. Yeah. I'm there. We could do that or we could go to Idaho but I think we could go to Idaho too. Yeah. A little bit further away. I'm into that. Bye, Feta. Have a good night. Yeah. Hot Rod's giving me headphone rewiring tips in the chat room on how to get spy headphones. That's right. I just have to, you know, no one would ever notice if there's like a parabolic directional microphone. Could be a little tiny microphone, I'm sure. Little tiny microphone would be great. Rob, the invisible says, come to Salem. It's so boring. Salem, an hour from here. I never, I just drive right past Salem all the time. I'm sure there, I, when the weather gets nice again, I wanna go, go south or south or to Tillamook Forest and out to the coast. Do they make the cheese there? Yeah, it's the Tillamook area. Yeah. You could come to Oregon and we could go, go to the cheese factory. Yes. I think, yeah, I think it, yeah. Beer and cheese. Sign me, oh, and coffee. And coffee. Yeah. And books. And books. Oh my God. It's a great life up here, Blair. Got everything you want. It's in sight. Thank you. Okay, well, too quick for me to meet myself. Yeah. Dar is saying, how could Salem be boring? The squeaky cheese. That's right. Get the squeaky cheese. What squeaky cheese? Here, squeaky cheese, Tillamook squeaky cheese. Oh, there's a squeaky cheese day. I gotta find out about this. We're in squeaky cheese day. That should be on our calendar. Sounds like something that I should have put on there. No, this is back, I guess back in 2013, they did a squeaky cheese day. Yeah, so anyway, they're cheese curds, squeaky cheese curds. I've actually never eaten cheese curds. There's a lot of. Isn't that cottage cheese? No, it's not the same as cottage cheese. Yeah, the whole cheese curds thing is a little bit weird to me. I'm very curious. You can fry them. You can also make poutine with them. Never had poutine either. Yeah, what is that French? It's French fries with the cheese curd gravy. Poutine? So it's usually meaty, right? What's the deal? It's cheese. It can be meaty, it can also just be cheesy. Okay. Basically like it's meaty, it can be meaty, but it can also just be like cheese fries. I want that, that sounds great. Cheese fries, I'm into it. Right, right, Gord, Blair needs to get poutine. Yeah, it should be, yeah, it should be a lighter sauce. It's not like cheese fries, it's just like cheese. Yeah, Gord knows. Yeah, I just, it can't have meat in it. If you don't wanna eat the meat. Yeah, I'm saying if I'm gonna eat it, it can't have meat in it. Janiske has Christmas coffee. I like coffee. Did we get hit with bad weather today? No, we had, it wasn't bad, it was cold today, but not, we had pretty decent weather today otherwise. Just cold. San Francisco got hit with some real bad weather last night. It was the wind and rain woke me up several times last night, which I am a deep sleeper. Yeah, we got some, we had a lot of wind. Power outages here in Davis. Yeah, yeah, we had a lot of trees down. My backyard had a bunch of trash in it this morning, which I think it's so weird after a storm to just see pieces of plastic get blown into your backyard. It's a weird wake up call of like, oh yeah, there's just trash everywhere. It's just everywhere. This morning I had a work meeting, a breakfast meeting with somebody and I drove up to Northish Portland, North Portland to go to a little cafe, get out of my car, the wind's blowing. I see a garbage can roll down the street. I'm like, oh, that's a breeze. There we go, time to get inside. It's cold today. Minus 40, but that's Celsius, Jenescu. You got to get it on the Fahrenheit scale because it's not minus 40 Fahrenheit where you are. It's not, can't be. No. I don't know, it wouldn't show. A poutinerie, oh my goodness. Sorry. Yeah, I need to go to Canada too. That needs to happen. Oh, Canada. I predict that in 2017 I'll visit some places I've never been before. It's always exciting, little adventurous, but they're not the same, Jenescu. Is it? That's where they're the same. Is it where they're the same at minus 40? That's where they're the, yeah, that's where they're equal. Really? Oh. Yeah. No. Yep. Oh, fascinating. Cool. Yes, Dar's like yes, yes, yes. Come to Canada, where the sackles cross, yes. What are sackles? That's what identity four said. Oh, scales. Scales, the measurement scales. I know, that's what I tried to write mobius strip in the chat room, it became mobstrip. Mobstrip, that's right. You take it. I mistype things all the time. I take it too quickly and then I'm like, oh, I misted that one. I'm a terrible typist. I hit send way too fast sometimes. It's 10 above in Anchorage. That's good. How cold are we outside right now? My weather says we are, at 740 PM, we were 29 degrees Fahrenheit. And right now we are a real feel of 23 degrees in the actual 27 degrees. But we don't have a probability of snow until Saturday. Oh, but I think we might get snow on Saturday. This is a lot of snow this season. It's kind of crazy. So, let's see. An ice castle. Oh my goodness. I love when they predict 100% chance of rain. I wanna go to an ice castle. I mean, I don't really. Where do you wanna go when it's 100% chance of rain? Oh no, I just said, I always think it's funny when they predict 100% chance of rain, especially several days in advance. Because weather, people that predict the weather, they never wanna give 100% of anything because things change so much. To say, yes, we're 100% certain it's gonna rain in San Francisco on Sunday, means the front is just it's enormous. They literally can't be wrong. And that's four days away. And they're sure it's gonna rain. That means. Oh, that's what your prediction, their prediction for this Friday is? For Sunday. For Sunday. I wonder if it's a similar front. It's 100%. Saturday is 99% chance of rain. It's crazy. Well, you know, and to be fair, the weather forecasters are. Futurists. Short-term, they really are. Because just as Amy was talking about being in journalism and talking about stuff that had already happened, it's exactly what the nightly news is. Here's something that just happened somewhere today or maybe yesterday. And then, but the weather guy is like, I'm gonna tell you the future. I'm gonna tell you, not something that already happened. I'm gonna tell you what's gonna happen. And like even, you know, like if all of the news ran like that, it would be far more interesting. Yeah. Tomorrow, there's going to be a carjacking on the corner of Franklin. Right? Like fire breaks out in residential home. We called them ahead of time to make sure they weren't gonna be there. 40% chance of burglary in this neighborhood tomorrow. Yeah. Oh, future crime predicting. Oh gosh. Yeah. Terrible. Oh yeah, identity four hills are no fun in the snow unless you are ready down. Yeah, unless you have a sled, right? You know, it's okay at the bottom, but yeah, seriously. Here, importantly, it's because it doesn't snow that often but it doesn't get even get, it doesn't even get icy as that often. But when it does, cars can't handle it. They cannot handle it and cars are just sliding. People are like, oh, I can drive in this. And their car's like, no, you can't. We're gonna slide you right down this hill. I mean, just don't even go to work that day. Minus nine, des vom, oh my goodness. A twist from a snow castle? I don't know, I'm Janice Kew. I don't know if I could do that. I wanna go to an ice castle because I think it would be so amazing to see one. You know, one of those ice hotels or ice. Yeah, why don't we just go to the ice bar in Vegas and do a short from there? Really short, like five seconds. Or we could do the ice bar. They have an ice bar in a lot in the town on the Red Sea in Israel. I didn't get to go in there, but they give you a winter coat on the way in. Right. And then you sit on an ice bench and you get served on an ice bar with an ice glass. Did you just, yeah. Hot rod is trying to get money. Out of us to know how to get across into Canada after the wall is built between America and Canada. The tunnel locations. Uh-huh. Well, can't we just charter a boat? Or, you know, a plane. And be a sea pirate. Arr. People used to think I was Canadian. I could probably just get in on that. Yeah. I attended E4 down in there. So he can drive resident reasonably well on his hill or the car. It's just scared to death of everybody else who can't. And that's exactly it. Yeah, that's it. They're like, not, oh, I can make it. This hill's no problem. Nope. You're gonna slide down the hill and block it for everybody else, aren't you? Oh no. Yeah. We went up a hill. Probably invisible. I can see you posted something, but I can't tell what it is. Ha! Cause it's on the phone. It says he would totally stand in igloo. Yeah, I would try that. I know someone who did it. One of my coworkers did an earth watch mission in the Arctic looking at ice cores. And they made an igloo and spent the night in one. He said it was surprisingly warm, but still cold. I knew somebody who went to Antarctica as Thank you, Dr. Piaz, but I had to. a research geologist. And as part of their emergency training when they first got down there, they had to build a snow cave. They dig their own little snow cave that they could barely get into and then sleep in it. Oh my goodness. I wouldn't, I'd just be like, nope, can I go home now? Yeah. Hey, Ann-Ottoca, you're cool and everything. I gotta go. Yeah. I think I'm gonna just jump on this piece of ice that's breaking off of you right now. Float on up to Argentina. Let's go. Oh my gosh. Yeah, I was really excited. I kind of wanted to go on that Earthwatch expedition. And then I watched my friend acquire everything that you needed to go to the Arctic, spend thousands of dollars on equipment for a three week trip. Then, you know, have to take four flights to get to where she was trying to go. And then every day she spent an hour in basically a cart attached to a zoomobile, or a zoomobile, a snowmobile. I'm like, I've got a big job. What's a zoomobile? I'm, whoo, a cart attached to a snowmobile, an open top, just like box, that was attached to the snowmobile. They would ride an hour in that to their research site during a blizzard. And then after seeing all that, I was like, I'm good. I end up doing a Earthwatch mission. I'm gonna go some more tropical. Or you could just, you know, add on up. You don't have to take four flights, I think, to get to Anchorage. Yeah. Like one airplane flight, Anchorage. Yeah. I think she flew, yeah, she flew straight to Churchill. Yeah. And then she had to take like one other normal commercial flight to get further north. And then she took one or two like biplane flights to get even further north. It was the same. Wait, Dar, what is it that you do? You have had a chance to build an igloo and stay in a teepee. And you say teepee is better, which is good to know. Teepee is, by the way, can be extremely warm. You get the fire going in that thing. It's toasty inside. Dar, what are you doing that you get to do all this cool stuff? Oh, you're just living in Canada. Wait, I missed that part for you. I live in Canada, I've built igloos. That's just normal. Normal living in Canada. Do you guys predict bedtime in your future? I do. I predict bedtime in my future. I need to put my child to real bed. He's, yeah, I mean, he's asleep. So he's probably fine, but he's gonna be a little uncomfortable there on that couch. At some point, he's gonna have to get up for school in the morning and he's gonna be one cranky sucker. I took my girls to see, oh, I forgot a Star Wars prediction I was gonna do. Like the Star Wars movie, it's too late to do any predictions now, but if I had thought of it, this is when I was gonna go into the Star Wars franchise. We'd completely lose track of where it was, jumping back and forth between when something happened in one of their movies and we'd totally screw it up in the next one. But we went and saw Rogue One today, which was- Cool. Oh, I've loved Rogue One. It was pretty cool, except other kids got all excited about all these new characters and people and then they all died. Yeah. Oh, Kiki, have you seen it? Nope. Oh. Oh, never mind. Justin. Also, all of our viewers, it hasn't been out for that long. You can't be spoiling like that. He's like, I'm just spoiling it. Spoiler alert. I just committed a crack. Okay, goodnight, everybody. Don't listen to the end of the show. Spoiler alert. I'm looking at pictures of Alaska. But yeah, my kids are running on with the lightsaber and the Wii gun and shooting at each other. Great. Of course they were. I wanna go. I ruined the internet. Goodnight, everybody. Ugh. All right, everyone. Thanks for watching our prediction show. It's time for us to head to bed and I predict, at least I hope to predict a very good night's sleep for everyone. And we will be back again next week, only a couple of weeks till January. We gotta figure out when it's the 19th. Oh, question. Hmm. The 18th. Mm-hmm. Can we do an interview that night? Sure. And then the science news stuff, the 19th. I don't know if we'll be able to broadcast. I gotta work that out with people. I just have to work out for the 19th show. Yeah, we could do a regular show on the 18th and then truncated show on the 19th for the live audience that's in the academy. Yeah, I don't know. I was kind of wondering if we should be doing, like picking our favorite silly stories or our favorite like, yeah, ignobles or stuff like that for Sketch Fest. I don't think we should go back too far. Yeah, this week in science. Right, that is true. But looking for things, yes, I guess pretty recent, but from, you know, with a certain humorous slant. Yes. So I don't know, we could do like an abbreviate, we could do like a normal show on Wednesday, but more of like a tight hour and more of like, okay, just one or two stories each after the interview and then have some other ones on Thursday. Yeah. I don't think we should deviate from the hardcore serious nature of the show to infuse any sort of comedic aspect. Exactly. Okay. Okay. No one will lose the core audience. Well, you best be expecting some invertebrate sex because I will find it. I know you will. You'll find it somewhere. This week in science on location and it's all invertebrate sex for the next hour. Go Blair. Here we go, let's talk it. Okay. All right, we're gonna go, let's figure it all out for the 19th sometime in the next week or so and everybody out there. Thanks for watching. Thanks for hanging out with us. We'll be back again next Wednesday, 8 p.m. Pacific time. Don't forget to check out the Minion Hangout if you get a chance. Bye.