 This is going to be the big number going into tomorrow. If it could just clear out this whole, this whole channel here, roughly around 960, it could absolutely stretch and that's the most important thing. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process and own your future. Hey, guys. Good evening, everybody. Welcome to another edition of theaxesandtrader.com. Nightly update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Crazy, crazy tape. Again, the big story today, number of big stories, but definitely the biggest story today was the Fed, right, FOMC. The expected movement of the Fed was kind of keep rates steady. That's what they did. They talked about a potential rate hike and excuse me, if we've heard this before, imminent rate hike, this one is March. It feels like this imminent rate hike has been going on for three to five years. Maybe it's May. But this one is definitely coming, right, definitely, definitely coming in March. And the one thing that, you know, we talk about all the time from the traders point of view. There's a million headlines. You can go read a thousand different blogs exactly what this is going to mean for the Fed, short-term, near-term, all that stuff. But again, we're talking about it from the traders point of view, from the day-to-day, traders point of view taking advantage of that. That's the most important thing. So the one thing that we knew going into today's session was that we were well below the 200-day moving average. We also know that the rally that was supposed to come yesterday, right, on this whole hammer started kind of gapping up today because Microsoft came out with pretty decent earnings. The first knee-jerk reaction yesterday, when I was recording the video, Microsoft was down 15 bucks by the time this video aired, Microsoft was up $5. This morning was higher and it took pretty much everything with it. We'll segue to Tesla in a second. And as we started going through the morning, we kept on reiterating the point that, number one, the Qs entered this week down 11% for the year. So if this was the day that we were going to kind of bounce back and the Nasdaq was going to be up 500 points, this was the perfect storm. You had the Fed, right? You had the Fed, you had Microsoft earnings, you had anticipation for another big earnings night tonight with Intel, with LRCX, with Tesla, right, with really some pretty big names. So if any day was going to be a day that we were going to have this rally back, because remember, think about this. If we're down 11% entering this week, and this week has been pretty bad for bulls as well, it wasn't crazy to think that we already, number one, gapped up about a 1.5% pre-market. It was no reason to believe that we couldn't at least rally back to the five-day moving average. And if you guys remember the video from two nights ago when we had this hammer, that was the goal, right? That was the initial goal. It wasn't supposed to be rally and reclaim the 200-day moving average. It was all about rally, dead cat bounce, at least challenge the five-day moving average, at first get above the five-day moving average and then start building towards a 10 and ultimately to the 50. And the problem with that was we got there, right? We got there. And just like everything else, when it comes to technical analysis, it doesn't make a difference. The majority of times, what is on the table as far as the geopolitical news, what is on the table for earnings, whatever the case may be, stocks trade from supply to supply and demand to demand. And supply zones, and this time this was a five-day moving average, supply zones are where emotional buyers meet technical sellers. And if you look at the 60-minute view, and the queues did it, right? The queues were up 500 points on the day. One of the queues, excuse me, the Nasdaq 100 was up 500 points on the day. Everything looked great. And then people realized, hey, by the way, we're still in the sell-bias market. We're still underneath the 200-day moving average. We got rejected off the five-day moving average. And yada, yada, yada, if you look at what happened here, this is pretty, you know, this is a pretty egregious move down, very disgusting move down. Everything got hit. Once Powell started to stop speaking, everybody realized, well, back to the same program, yada, yada, yada. The Nasdaq gave back the 500 points, eked out a very, very small victory. If you can call it that, it's like winning a tall as dwarf competition. I'm not sure if that's politically correct. If there's a tall as dwarf out there, I apologize in advance, no disrespect, but you kind of get the point. And now that we're here. So going into tonight, we had some pretty big earnings. Years ago, Intel would have been the predominant, like the dominant view. Intel was the market leader, Intel, Cisco, Microsoft, Oracle, you know, they were the behemoths. And you look at Intel's earnings this evening, you know, stock is down a buck, really nothing going on there. This is not the leader that it was 15, 20 years ago. There's always a different group of leaders and yada, yada, yada, things change. We have to change with it. Lamb research also came out with earnings. As you can see here down, not nothing huge. The initial reaction was down, you know, pretty, pretty big. Now it's only down about 20, 20, 20, 30 points. But the big number, right, the big, right, as they say in Yiddish, I believe, right, was Tesla. Everybody, all eyes was on Tesla. We saw some pretty big bets, both ways, right? We saw bets. We saw bets this morning for the 1050s. At one point today, we saw, and it's probably the same person, three consecutive bets, 1.4 million, 1.4 million, 1.4 million on the 950 weeklies, pretty aggressive premium. And the first move of Tesla at the earnings, and they beat top, they beat bottom, they beat everything. The first move, as you can see, went all the way down to all the way down to 880. And then people realized, well, wait a minute, the earnings are pretty good. Slowly but surely, it started building. And if you've been following kind of my Twitter feed, I was pretty busy. I'm kind of doing the update a little bit late for me. I'm usually done by the update in five and change. I just kind of finished my last little piece here. But it's starting moving higher. And the longer a stock, especially on earnings, the longer a stock stays above water, especially going red to green, right? The higher probability it's going to spike. And you can see here what the stock has done ever since recovering. If you've been kind of watching my Twitter feed, I've been just kind of literally tweeting prices as the stock goes along. It took out this 925 level. It traded all the way to the supply here into this 950. Now it's trying to rebuild this 950 area. This is going to be the big number going into tomorrow. If it could just clear out this whole channel here, roughly around 960, it could absolutely stretch. And that's the most important thing. I'm not sure if there's a conference call going on or not. I'm assuming there is. But the point is, again, this is a special stock, obviously a cold following company. And if we can just get a push tomorrow above this whole channel here, right, this whole 960s channel here, this thing could really, really wake up and maybe test today's high. So that's something obviously on deck for tomorrow. But the big picture, right, the big picture is what we talk about technically. You know, the market just can't get up, right? Just can't get up. That's what he said. And that's what I said. And probably that's what you said. But the point is, it can't get up. The last couple of days has been teetering off this 341 level of support. You see here back-to-back days, the bulls defend that level. It will be very, very interesting to see if the bulls can defend that level again tomorrow. Obviously, the upside bias, the bulls need to reclaim this 357 level, which is the five-day moving average. There is a natural bias back to the upside. The bulls, before you can get back to the all-time highs, you have to confirm the five-day moving average, and that's exactly where we got rejected today. So we know our little baby lion in the sand tomorrow. We know today's high is going to be a macro pivot back for the bulls if they want to reclaim it in the near future. And everything else, the most important part is kind of the game plan that we had today was waiting for channels to develop, right? The balance plays today were super, right? We had balance plays today, three or four different balance plays today on Tesla, which were really, really good. A Microsoft back test into rising support was really, really good as well. And the most important part is when you don't have daily charts that are setting up because the market is such a mess, well, you have to use alternative ways to kind of put stakes in the freezer. And this is because we trade channels, because we trade ranges, this has been nothing new, right? If you're a, quote, unquote, normal trader and you're trading off daily charts, you see what kind of a mess it is. So we are taking advantage of the channels, the upside channels, downside channels, making sure we see the visibility on both. And obviously, if the messed up charts on the daily are going to be a big factor in what you do or what not you do, there's going to have to be another alternative. And obviously, channels are definitely an alternative. But the most important part is we're not doing anything that's outside of our comfort zone. The channels, whether the market is all messed up or up and down, we're going to trade these channels regardless. So it's kind of business as usual. But the most important part now is everything is exaggerated, right? Everything is exaggerated. And the measure potential is actually bigger. So it's actually a cool, cool thing if you are willing to wait. So let's talk about today's session. So this was a natural pivot. There was one or two natural pivots here. And then everything else was really big bounces. So NVIDIA 234 needs to build. Here was NVIDIA. And there wasn't a lot, as you can imagine, there wasn't a lot of natural pivots, right? Because, again, the market's all messed up. But here's the 234. This whole channel here, right? The 234 level. Stock went right to the upper part of the channel, all the way up to the 240s. But this is already after the Fed. The first natural move went about a little under 237. So a nice little pop there on the NVIDIA. But everything else was literally bounces. Here is Tesla rising support, 938, 939. They report tonight. If they could defend, not only did they defend it, and this is one of, you know, this is, oh, here comes Tesla's ripping right now. Here is one, this is literally one of many bounces we had today, but this was the big one. Rising support, 938, 939. If it builds, it could snap back. This is the bounce that went all the way up into the 980s, huge, huge move there. Microsoft for experienced traders, 299, 300 for potential dip buy. It put in a low of 298 and a half. Bounced back, went all the way up to 306 on the Fed. Oh, Tesla is ripping. Absolutely ripping right now. Also, again, here's all the remounts. We kept on talking about here's different remounts. 3690 supply, that's where it kind of got up to. Perfect bounce, right? Perfect bounce on Microsoft, went up about six or so right before the Fed, so big, beautiful bounce there. So the lot of value was going to be in the bounce areas. For tomorrow, I want to watch the overall market. If we start losing today's channels, obviously we're going to turn around and get hit, right? But if we defend and Tesla somehow wakes everything up, Tesla is absolutely ripping. This is messing me up because I'm not in it on this move here. It's in the 960s now, damn videos costing me money. Anyway guys, have a great night everybody. Please, for all you guys, tomorrow there will be no video. Tomorrow's Thursday, it's my natural night that I am resting. So for all you guys who are coming in, please come to morning strategy early. We'll obviously get the morning pivots, morning bounces, morning technicals, ACMA also have to close. And now as he purchased three million shares of Netflix, right? So obviously he is believing in the whole long-term story. Guys, have a great night. God bless and I will see you all tomorrow.