 The following is a presentation of TFNN trading hour with your host David White call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-445-1044 now David White and welcome all to another exciting edition of the power trading hour with me you're unbelievable. And squeezably soft host who comes to you almost every day at this time. The following takes place between 2pm and 3pm. So what do we have today? Well it certainly looked as we talked on the show yesterday that we were going to get a fairly significant bounce. I thought that the low was in for the year yesterday and where are we yet right here if I can actually find it. Okay up 22 we call it 23 points as I said I'm not expecting us to rally 500 S&P points before the end of the year. I just think that for the most part we're going to see maybe a percent or two higher. But what we're really going to see moving are the stocks that have been most aided least shorted and not gone down. Especially over the last few days you can make a case that on Friday Thanksgiving there was nobody that wanted to be a bear coming into a Monday. Because there were no bears they ran the market down fairly good. There wasn't a lot of people to instantly cover. They finally got it down there to a level where everybody started shorting thinking the end was nigh. And of course the market pops instantly which has been kind of the modus operandi of the market the entire year. We went from 10 percent put call ratio in the VIX stocks. Those are the out of the money puts and calls from Friday to what was it 55 or something yesterday 50. So it popped back all in one or two days. Let's put it that way. So generally when everybody decides it's time to short it's actually time to go long. We've talked about not knowing whether it's a bunch of stupid people that all decide to go short at one time. Or a lot of people shorting the market just before the turn trying to push the market down and run and flush out all the stops before they turn around and then cover all those and send the market much higher. But it looked I don't know. We were down what 30 probably 35 points yesterday by the by the time the show had probably about halfway through the show. What we closed down 20 points yesterday. We're up 23 points now. So basically where we were at when we started Monday night. And like I said I'm not expecting a huge amount of index moves. But I do suspect that there are a lot of stocks that are probably going to go significantly higher before the end of the year. Just as volume continues to decay as it always does this time of year and shorts end up slowly covering. And to a great extent December seems to almost always be one of these deals where it's the proverbial frog in the water. You throw a frog in the hot pan of water. It'll jump out because it senses it's getting burned. But guess what. You put that frog in a nice tepid water and turn the heat up slowly. It just eventually gets baked. And that's generally what happens on short sales. They're looking for some kind of giant thing that happens. It's just so infrequently that we get anything that it even matters. Now looking forward to next week the 10th and the 11th or the FOMC meetings. My guess is that they're not going to say anything to spoil Christmas. But we do not know what a handful of people will do. But my guess is they won't change a great deal. Market will kind of like that. That will probably take us a little higher to sideways through the 11th. And then probably that's where I think the majority of the short squeeze is going to come from about the 11th through and probably the 20th maybe the 23rd as we get into Christmas. It's you know there's always the question of what's more important the charts or seasonality. And in Christmas I've got to say that most of the time you'll have some outliers but almost always for Christmas the bias of a little higher is not monsterly higher. What I'm trying to say is you're probably not going to go rich or get rich going along the indexes. They'll probably be up a little. I'm going to say probably an 80% chance of being up a little and a 20% chance of being down a little. So you know if it'd be different if there was a 20% chance that it was down a whole lot. But you just really so seldomly get that over a couple hundred years of history that you want to stay I think away on that. And again there's some stocks we bought one yesterday that has 17 days or 16 days to cover as that volume continues to drop. We're just going to see this thing go up a couple pennies couple pennies couple pennies. And of course on this one which is only in the it's a little under 10 bucks. It only has to go up about a buck 50 to really make some decent profits out of it. So like I said it's going to be kind of tough. We've got some other questions we want to get here to today. You can always email me at path at tfnn.com but what's do a little history and then when we come back from the break. We'll talk about the first question that I had earlier in the day and we'll cover a specific stock. But let's do that history. I guess we can do it now. And on this day in 1952 heavy smog begins to cover over London England and on December 4th 1952 it persists for five days leading to the deaths of 4,000 people. It was a Tuesday afternoon or Thursday afternoon when high pressure air mass stalled over the Thames River Valley when cold air arrived suddenly from the west. The air over the London became trapped in place. The problem was exasperated by low temperatures which caused residents to burn even more coal in their furnaces. And most people don't know that England is basically a giant piece of coal. You dig a little bit farther underneath the turf and probably 80% of the people heated their homes with coal into the 70s. A lot of these older homes were demolished. They started rebuilding new homes that were a little bit more robust and modern. So that's kind of changed. But it's kind of interesting to think of London as kind of a L.A. with huge amounts of pollution. But then you think about China. No real different there. You go to the capital cities of China. You can't breathe there either. Every people are doing that. Burning coal. You know, you don't do that much anymore. China still does. You know, you don't do that much anymore. You don't do that much anymore. You don't do that much anymore. All new subscriptions also come with a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Start your subscription by visiting the front page of TFNN.com today and you'll find the task profile scanner under the services tab. Sign up today. 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And actually, I've got a chart up here too so we can take a look at it. N-T-N-X is the company. And they were kind of wondering how all this worked with VMware and all the rest. And I knew that there were going to be a lot of people that probably need a little primer before they figured out how this company actually makes money. It's had a nice run of about 100% off the August 16th low. Now, of course, that was coming off of almost 55 bucks back in February down to 17 bucks. So you can make a case that this thing has done just a dead cat bounce. But it is a very interesting company nonetheless. So we'll do a deep dive on what this is and maybe you'll learn a little bit more about technology and technology companies. Again, you don't have to be someone that can go to work there tomorrow. You just need kind of a 30,000 foot overview to know how these things plug together. And a little knowledge of a company is probably better than a whole lot of knowledge on the company. At least you'll understand what they do. Newtonix is a company that pushes what they call a hyper-converged infrastructure. And before we get too deep in this, just about everything in computers and technology is fairly complicated. So the idea is to always try to abstract all the dirty little details farther down in the code. And a lot of times what you'll do is you'll write one program that talks to another program that talks to another program. In fact, all the ethernet and internet as it comes through your and into your system and the way you're listening to me now goes through seven different layers of a software. And if something needs to change, you can change it anywhere in that. But the idea is to generally let the first layer kind of leave it alone. If it's working, don't mess with it. Then you get kind of a second layer of abstraction, a third layer of abstraction, a fourth layer, fifth layer, sixth layer, seventh layer and internet. And that's worked for pretty much the same since the mid-80s. And the idea behind cloud computing with Nutex is kind of that. They're going to allow you to control cloud servers and servers in your own location rather seamlessly by putting a lot of different layers above everything that you need to use. So, you know, the traditional three-tiered architecture is some servers over here, a ton of storage over there from somebody in the storage business, and then networks from somebody like Citrix and Cisco and those folks. And of course, in the olden days, what you'd have is a bunch of different texts trying to make all this stuff plug together and work. And of course, if you wanted to change it, God forbid, because everything had to be changed on all of them. VMware was one of the first companies to change the way that routers worked by putting a layer of software that basically took all the care of everything based on rules that you put in. So you didn't really have to worry about, you know, specific IP addresses and typing this number in here and that setting over there. It just knew how to do it. It's kind of like you're the boss and you've got a bunch of people underneath you that are managers. And then they got people that are underneath them that are actually the worker bees. The manager, the king cheese tells the managers what to do and all the different parts of the businesses. They go and then they tell all the people that work for them what to do underneath. But the CEO doesn't have to talk to the surfs down at the ground level that are actually doing all the work. So they set those layers of abstraction, which are no real difference than the business model. So the idea from Newtonix is that you could basically write a piece of software that would do all that layers below everything that you needed to do to run a big cloud service. So let's say that you're somebody that's running an ad on the Superbowl and you're going to need a ton of servers to handle everybody attacking your, hopefully, clicking on your ad after the Superbowl. You may need a ton of servers, but you may only need those servers for six or seven or eight hours. Probably a little less for the next few days as people maybe look at it in the next couple of days. By Wednesday, they probably have forgotten about your ad. And probably if they haven't clicked on it by then, they're probably not going to go to it. So what you need is a bunch of servers right now. And then you need to diminish those over the next few days. Now, maybe you're going to bet everything on Amazon? Maybe not. Bet everything on Google? Maybe not. Everything on Microsoft says your web services? Maybe not. What if you could control all three of them from one piece of software? And just say, okay, I want all these servers. This is the software I want on them. And I'm going to copy everything to them. And they're all going to talk back to this one computer where I'm going to store all the information for the people that came and what they wanted and whether they gave me an order or they wanted more information or needed to download stuff. So the idea behind Newtonics is kind of the same thing as VMware, where VMware really kind of targeted just being able to control routers, like Cisco routers, but not really have to worry about what the hardware really was. Again, you've got all these levels and layers of what happens. And as you get down the tiers, more of those levels have to know more about the hardware they're talking about. But at the high levels, the CEO doesn't really know the names of the people that work for them down in the trenches. So this company, at least their idea is that you'd be able to turn on, let's say a thousand servers and maybe you're going to split them equally between Amazon, Microsoft, and Google. So if one of them is down on Superbowl Day, you didn't throw all your money away on one of them, right? You're going to be able to load, share between all of them. They're all going to talk to each other. So you could almost say it's a cloud of clouds, right? It's kind of a cloud thing that actually controls all the cloud stuff below it. And again, you're basically talking about servers, storage and networks, and the idea of abstracting those at a very high level and being able to control all of the major servers, companies like those big ones from Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. But at the same time, include maybe your own servers where you may have stuff that you don't want outside of your office, like credit card numbers, that kind of stuff. Maybe you'll just save all that stuff behind a giant fence with spikes on it at your location. But Newtonix, kind of a software that drives and oversees the rest of cloud services. We'll be back after this. 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But you know when you push down on the accelerator car, it's going to go faster. The more you push down, the faster it goes. You don't need to know all the details of the engine underneath it or the transmission that's hooked to it or all the other systems that come by it. You've got the interface, which is that pedal or that gear level or the steering wheel. And once you understand those three things, those are the only things you generally, unless things hit a big speed bump or a pothole, those are the only things you really need to know and brake lever, I guess. So you've got your interfaces. Everything else is hidden under the hood. And that's absolutely what everybody wants to do. If you write software correctly, you can abstract people from all the details that are underneath there. And of course, they're dark and dirty and greasy under that hood. You don't want to get under there too much, right? You want to do basic maintenance every once in a while. But you don't want the driver always having to think about, well, did I have a six-cylinder and eight-cylinder? What transmission do I have? And for a long time, that's the way that a lot of these cloud systems work. You had to know everything about it. And the whole idea is virtualization, i.e., you don't know anything about where the computer is, where this stuff is running on. You just know if you do it to this spec that it'll run on everything everywhere if you do it right. If it runs one place, it should run everywhere. And that's basically what these companies are all working on, is that there's going to be an interface for the customer that may need 1,000 web servers all for Super Bowl Night. And that's it. They hit a button. They click up to 1,000. They maybe click a button that says scale as best as you can for all the deluge of people that's going to come in on the Super Bowl ad. And maybe you start off with 100 servers. You go to 1,000 servers. Everybody's forgotten about it by the time they go to bed. You maybe only need 100 servers now. These things will all kind of automatically expand and contract as needed. And that's what all this stuff does. So it's, like I said, for the most part, if you're a big company and you're in retail, you're not really in the business of owning computers or having a bunch. You may just run this big ad and need the ability to scale from very small to very large. And maybe all that in the space of a single week. That is what all this virtualization companies do, including VMware, is make it kind of invisible and under the hood. So you don't have to spend a lot of time figuring out how this plugs into that, where that is. Everybody's had a computer, always had to hook in all the cables and set their IP addresses in the past. You don't do that anymore. It just knows. It just knows. Anyway, what else do we have out here to question about Amazon? I just don't see a lot going on here. All these companies are under fire, including Google. We'll talk about them next. Not surprised this thing didn't drive higher. As we all know that these guys are going to be under the microscope for the coming year. We also saw that in the last earnings cycle that they talked about spending a lot more money. And of course, Wall Street never likes the fact that Amazon's spending more money. The overarching issue that I think is that we've talked about for a while is after Intel earnings, they let us know that at least for the server business, which Amazon really, when you look at it, they sell a lot of stuff. They have a lot of businesses. But the overarching business that makes the most amount of money and most amount of profit is their Amazon web services. So when we look at something like Amazon or Microsoft, we know for a variety of sources that the growth in web services is slowing. So I'm not going to, since Amazon really isn't what you would call a reseller of software, like Microsoft has cloud services and software sales for databases, that kind of stuff. Amazon really doesn't. And so you want to look to a company's big cash cow, which is almost always the margins they have. The retail side of Amazon, you know, so they make six, eight, nine percent on the retail products. Their web services, I think most of those companies are making like 50% margins on web services. So as that business slows, don't be surprised that why everybody points to Amazon is where they get their packages from. The real money is in that web services business. Same thing with Microsoft. About half of their profits, recent profits have been directly linked to their Azure web services platform. They still do well, but I'm not surprised that these companies, I'm not saying they're going to sell off wildly, but I'm going to say that their growth curve is specifically lower. And I think one of the reasons that we saw the news today on Google, on the original founders leaving from the board of directors is that they've kind of seen the writing on the wall that the easy money is over. And of course, the next year, they don't want to be involved in being dragged in front of a lot of congressmen who probably call it the Google instead of just Google. Remember those guys? I think who was it that called everything the Twitter and the Google? You had to put a the before everything, which was kind of a little creepy. I think a lot of people think it's creepy to put a the kind of like the Goldman Sachs, which I think if you work there, you have to actually do that. I don't know why they would call it the Goldman Sachs, other than Goldman Sachs is fine. Anyway, Google up a little bit on the day that the that the two original founders are leaving. But the question is, why are they leaving? Is this really a positive for Google? And I'm going to say that the CEO isn't that sharp. He's not that good. I don't know if they were doing anything or nothing. But there's a lot of CEOs that are nothing more than caretakers. This guy is not that good. He lets the employees tell him what the company can do and what they can't. Everybody's running around on strike, walking out. I don't know how you run a company based on what your employees want to do. And you kind of have to run the company on what you can do. And again, I think these guys are going to get burned a bit when Congress talks about why were you willing to help the Chinese Communists, but you refused to help the U.S. military. Very tough questions coming from Congress next year for the Google. If you're in the CD market and looking for a secure investment, the Tiger First mortgage program may work for you. The security for these first mortgages are building lots in the tax opportunity zone in St. Petersburg, Florida. 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Plus, new subscribers get to test drive our newsletters risk-free for 30 days. From all aspects of the markets, including stocks, bonds, metals, commodities and tech, there's a newsletter to fit your needs exclusively from TFNN. Stay informed each day you trade and get the competitive edge that will help you stay ahead of the game. Visit our Newsletters page by going to TFNN.com and click the Newsletters button near the top of the page. TFNN.com Educating Investors Are China A shares hot or not? If you trade China A shares, now may be time to take a closer look. Trade CHAU or CHAD Directions Daily CSI 300 China A share bull and bear ETFs. China A shares in either direction. Visit Direction Investments.com today. An investor should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing. The prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares. 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We're doing about 4.3 billion shares today. So we're going to be in line with the volume we went down on yesterday. So no clear signal out here that any kind of bottom is broken. I don't think even if we retest the recent lows, the last couple of days that we're going to break them. In fact, I think, like I said, I think the 80% chance that we're a percent or two higher in the S&Ps come Christmas, maybe even a little bit more than that. But the index is probably not going to tell the story. The story is going to be as volume drops, short positions that are highly shorted are probably going to go a little higher. Had a question, and as always, you can email me at path at tfnn.com. Tamara from Seattle asked me about a company that handles taxes for city and state governments. What's the name of the company? And that's a little wrong for what you're talking about. They handle sales tax information for state, local and federal and international and countries all across the globe. And that's Avalara. So think of it as a cloud service where you say, hey, I'm shipping product A from Taiwan to, you know, Arizona. What are the taxes? Who gets the money? All that kind of stuff. These guys are always plugging in the tax rates and the legality of selling something from one place to another and where you have to collect taxes and where you have to send them. And of course, you just tell them what you've done or what you're doing and then they'll tell you how much you have to pay. And you can either, you know, put that in your sales prospectus to the client. But you see a lot of things like Amazon where it'll always say you're expected taxes or so and so. And of course, by the time they ship it, it's generally, if you're in the United States, correct. But sometimes it's off depending on where it shipped from and who was the company that actually sold it. Some things you buy from Amazon. Even though you're using them, they're just collecting the money. So it's actually, you know, the company maybe in the same state as you. So they have to collect local sales tax. Sometimes they do not. All those kind of intricacies of from point A to point B. But they don't, I just, your description is a little bit different. From what my understanding is they handle all the information of what taxes you should collect as a business when you do business with someone else. And you're shipping that product or giving that product or delivering that product to some other jurisdiction, including many countries all around the globe. So that's it. Avalara, of course, they got to 9431 down to 6420 and had a bounce. But I think that every time the discussion is that there's going to be some kind of better trade deal that this was going to be less needed. If the trade deal falls apart, I think this thing goes back to 95 bucks. But then you always have to worry about, you know, someone saying the trade deals back. And eventually it will be, but I've never thought that this thing was going to be settled before mid-summer of 2020 going into the election. I think it gets solved then. I think the Chinese would be wise to handle it sooner rather than later. Because what happens the longer it goes, the more people will be looking for products outside the jurisdiction of China. AAPL had an interesting call from one of the Wall Street analysts who they say have done a big survey and found out that people that have bought Apple for the last, for iPhones for the last 8, 10 years or so are now starting to wander and look at other phones in the Android complex. It's not huge at the moment. I think the guy is going to be on CNBC tomorrow. But generally you want to get excommunicated, say something that isn't positive about Apple and the investment community. And you're going to get torch. A lot of the dip yesterday was kind of on that. You're getting back a little bit today, but not a lot of volume. As we said, Apple really hasn't been doing very well in the iPhone business over the last year. The difference has been that they're selling those ear pods to everybody and making outrageous amounts of margin on them. And the question is, are people now looking for more cost value comparisons? I'm not a big guy that would spend a lot of money on a phone. In fact, I'm probably the cheapest smartphone buyer in the world because I've got lots and lots of computing power with big screens. Why do I want to dink around with a little screen? If I was outside, maybe at customer sites all day and needed connectivity, maybe that would be okay. I just don't need a phone other than really to talk to people that much. The question is whether a lot of people are going to start looking at spending a grand every year or two on Apple for phones and say, well, I really just don't do that stuff anymore. I've grown up. I use it to talk and text and that's about it. And I think when you get into a mature business and people quit paying games, that may be it. Anyway, interesting discussion that people that have owned iPhones for a number of years are starting to look at others, including Samsung flagship style phones and others just thinking that they don't use it enough for all those other things. I remember in the 80s, everybody was supposed to have a word processor and a spreadsheet and email for business. And they thought everybody should have it at home. And Microsoft is kind of pushing that. But how many people you know that actually even know how to run a spreadsheet that aren't in business now? I know a lot of people down here, if I ask them to even name what the spreadsheet was, they probably couldn't come up with it down in Florida. Now, maybe that's a thing where there's just a lot of older people in Florida. It continues to be kind of one of these things where I think the dinky little games that go on handheld devices and kids, especially kids that have pushed this for the last five or 10 years, they eventually just kind of get over it. I think Twitter has been one of those kind of companies where it becomes TWTR. Twitter becomes less and less important every day. Talking about another CEO wanting to van moose, he's going to try to hide out in Africa all next year. And if anybody believes that's because he wants to do something in Africa, it is not. He's hiding from the congressional guys that will be on his rear end all next year. And he's going to be saying, you know, I'm down there doing the Lord's work in Africa. I can't come back and talk to you. Anyway, everybody's running for the running for the hills. Google. And I'll teach you the exact set of tools that I use that has transformed me into one of the best at what I do. Sign up for Mastering Probability today by clicking on the newsletter tab on the homepage of TFNN.com and get immediate access to workshops where I take you step by step how to use an extraordinary set of tools as well as provide great market calls too. Sign up today. Here is the vehicle from TFNN to capitalize on these opportunities. This is the go-to newsletter that identifies, monitors and profits on mostly little known cutting-edge companies with great long-term prospects. David's experience is as an inventor of Emmy-winning animation products for TV and Hollywood that propelled a company public. Match that with 14 years as a full-time trader and he's uniquely qualified to guide you through the light speed world of ever-evolving high tech. If you're ready to ride the next big technology bull market for less than $40 per month, log on to TFNN.com and get your two-week free trial to the Technology Insider. Get in on the ground floor of the next big thing today. Since 1984, Basil Chapman has been using the Chapman Wave methodology to advise traders of his expert market opinion. While originally hand-drawing charts from the late 1970s into the 1980s, Basil noticed that prices under most circumstances virtually always had a certain number of legs to the upside before declining sharply. Later Basil found the computer software which included the standard market technical indicators enhanced the degree of accuracy in calling price turns as well as market trend calls. Thus was born the Chapman Wave Sequence. Using the Chapman Wave methodology along with other indicators, Basil Chapman advises his subscribers of his expert market opinion each market day with his opening call newsletter. Right now you can get a two-week free trial to the opening call, Basil's daily trading newsletter, by visiting the front page of TFNN.com. Cancel it anytime during a trial and pay absolutely nothing. Get your two-week free trial to Basil's newsletter, the opening call today by visiting TFNN.com. And the first question I have, do I have anything more on Newtonics? And yeah, I sent you a PDF if anybody else wants it. But here's their babble about what they do from Newtonics. So if you want to take a look at this, it basically breaks down what the company does and how they do it. I'll be glad to send it to you. Just email me at path at TFNN.com. But not real technical and like they said for dummies on here that I'm showing on the screen. But certainly you can take a look at it. What else do we have? Oh, question about Tesla being a three-gap play. You've got two. You're literally looking for the third one. Again, I'm not a big fan of trying to short stocks into the end of the year. We had in fact probably the best seven days in the newsletter last year when we bought, it was a day before Christmas, a day after, whatever we did, whatever it did, we ripped in equities. And of course we had a good run starting in August all the way through pretty much the beginning of October and options. Very tough. Again, the market tends to move slowly and deliberately into Christmas. You don't generally get everything in one big bounce. So I'm continuing to watch this market go probably a little higher each day, a little bit more of a short squeeze into the last couple of days before Christmas. I don't see anything that really moves anything. FOMC is next week. That's pretty much it for the year, unless they drop the Chalupa, which I do not think they're going to do. I think that it just continues to ratchet up the problem with shorts. If you're thinking about going short, maybe next year, maybe January 3rd is a better idea. In the meantime, sell when you can, not when you have to. We'll be back tomorrow. Same bat channel, same bat.