 Okay, welcome to this week's CMC Markets weekly charting analysis video. My name's Jasper Lawlett, Mark Analyst here at CMC, I've got the risk warning on the page. We're going to get through that and then get into what could be driving markets this week. We'll be looking at the charts of some major indices, effects and commodities and also talking about some of the major fundamental drivers. See a little bit of a sketchy start to the week. We had a massive run higher on Friday in stock markets, so to be expected to some extent to see a little bit of a pullback, if we pull up UK markets, pull up the 3100, you can see where we are. We saw that big jump higher above the recent ceiling which has been around the 6000 mark, a big push up right beyond 6100 and just getting a pull back to that once resistance now potential support. For this breakout to really see any sustained move higher, we ideally want to see this 6000 mark. I put the real line in the sand here at about 6000, 10, but 6000 is the round number, we need to hold above there really. We need to close the day above there I think for this upside breakout to sustain itself, otherwise we may have seen the top of the retracement and could be in for a down move back maybe sub 5800. The driver you probably know of the big move higher on Friday was the policy move from the Bank of Japan. They chose to cut interest rates into the negative, you can see the result in the Japanese yen if we switch across to that. Quite a strong correlation between the yen and US government yield, sort of the general desire for risk. You can see there that we are hovering sub 119, struggling to get through it and suddenly we flew 200 pips higher above 121 and we are sort of sustaining those gains in dollar yen at the moment. Something to look out for will be we had sort of a one, two, three trend line break, now we are back to it and we are right at this 200 day SMA, so a little confluence of resistance potentially below this 122 that could actually cap the gains in dollar yen. The yen is generally viewed as a haven when there is some turmoil out there, so you can see dollar yen kind of moves in sync with stock markets, so stocks can keep pushing higher. Dolly yen probably can too, however as maybe today is a sign of, if stock markets start to roll over then dolly yen could too. It is worth noting just on the Japan front that the governor of the Bank of Japan is speaking on Wednesday, so that will be an important one for both yen and stock markets to get out there, so give us a little clue as to what the thinking was and the negative rates, what he hopes to achieve from it and the market can obviously form their own opinion of that. My take is that potentially this just the cutting into negative interest rates is just a sign as to how little more the Bank of Japan can do on the quantitative easing front and it was the QE that really boosted the NECA, boosted, devalued the yen and this is a sign that there is no more QE to come, that is probably actually a negative for the dollar yen, probably a positive for the yen. So we will have to see how he characterizes this and whether it is the sign of more things to come. Japanese inflation is still pretty weak despite all the efforts that have been made to date. That does not mean that they are just going to give up on the current efforts, that probably just means they are going to ramp it up even more. But there is a question mark how much more they can actually do. The Bank of Japan currently own, I believe it is about 40% of the total issuance of Japanese debt, so 60% to go but still a bit of an unsustainable path you probably agree. So if we work our way down the sort of general equity markets here, we have a touch on the UK 100, similar story in US markets where we had basically on the US 30, I had it down to the sort of 16 180 area, you could drop that even down to sort of 16 100 was the kind of ceiling to the price action since that massive drop in from January and then we got a breakthrough that we still sub the 50% replacement and there is a little confluence of potential resistance there around that sort of 1600 to 630 mark from that peak on January 13th and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of this downdraft that began on the day before New Year's Eve. I think this is a breakout, it's a fairly obvious breakout, similar to what we said for the FTSE 100, so we'll have to see how the markets close in relation to in this case the 16 180 and in the case of the FTSE 100, you can see on the chart there that it's more like, as we mentioned, the sort of 6000 to 6010 mark, similar sort of equivalent levels, obviously UK markets are open now, they're down a bit, we're still basing this on US futures markets and not the actual cash markets, obviously not open for another hour. Not a couple of hours Mark, excuse me. But you can see that kind of what we're doing is we're pulling back, we just want to see how far that retracement goes to judge whether this breakout is sustained. Well I suspect it probably will be, but I would be looking at possible weakness at that 1600 level in the US 30 and again, they're always the corollary, if you find what you believe to be an important level, look for a possible move from there, if there isn't one, then it can tell you that there's probably some strength in the market and you should change your bias to the other direction. We'll move this week, of course we'll talk about it in terms of the dollar as well, but we've got non-farm payrolls on Friday, so we'll probably spend a lot of the week looking towards that. We've also got some major technology company earnings and we've actually issued a special report and some of the big ones that happened last week, a lot of summary of those, Amazon and Apple, most importantly I would say, and then also the upcoming earnings this week, including Google and Yahoo, so that'll be some drivers of US stocks on the earnings front, some of them will also widely watch growth companies and how well they perform, but also just what's happening in China and so today part of the reason for getting a bit of a drop off here is the generally weak manufacturing data from China. We've got services data coming out on Wednesday, so that'll be another one to look out for. Today we have ISM manufacturing from the US and on Wednesday, you see that Monday and Wednesday tend to be the days for the ISM, the PMI data, one of the services PMI data from the US, ISM non-manufacturing on Wednesday. So I'm going to move swiftly over to the FX front here, but any questions at all? Please feel free to shoot over to me and I'm happy to answer any questions you might have had of what I'm talking about here or just some other topic. Now looking at the pound, this is the daily chart in the pound, you can see that the closing level has been quite a sort of volatile range in which the opening and closing levels have been fairly consistent over the past four days, and so we're just trying to decide here in sterling whether we're at a base, this 140 mark, 141 really. Give you some context on that 141. Here's a monthly chart, and you can see that this support we're looking at is multi-year support from back in 2010. We managed to just about sort of close the week, close the month even in that sort of vicinity, which suggests that we didn't see a substantial close below it, suggests that there's some chance of a bounce back here, and then if we go to the weekly chart, you can see the kind of indecision that we're experiencing at the moment, where there is that long bottom-tailed sort of doji on the previous week, and then we saw more of a kind of higher top-tail doji last week. So definitely indecision, we don't quite know which way we're going. I would suggest maybe in the short term, the fact that we didn't really see such a strong follow-through on the original reversal would suggest that maybe we've got a little bit of a short-term downside before we can probe higher again, but the best judge of that would be whether we can push and close one side of this range or the other. So 142, 30 I would say on the downside, and then sort of 143, 50 on the top side, are kind of the kind of closing levels that we want to be eyeing up to determine which way this breakout could go. Obviously the trend very much to the downside, so if you are taking any top-side breakout, be aware that you're against the general flow of things, well below the 200-day moving average, which could suggest that we're in for a bit of a move back towards it, but nonetheless, that sort of denotes a downtrend as do the lower low and the lower high on the weekly chart. The other big event this week is the Bank of England, and that includes the inflation report on Thursday. The, there's been a sort of a article doing a round today that's quite worth reading, is that Mark Carney could be the first Bank of England governor since I think 1932 that just doesn't change interest rates for his whole term. He's supposed to be here for five years. That could get extended to the normal eight, but you know, maybe even eight years he'll fulfill the same. So the point being that it doesn't look like UK interest rates are going up any time soon, and that's being priced into the pound, particularly with the likes of a, you know, it looks like Cameron is making some progress supposedly in Europe over negotiating a deal for the UK and Europe, so that would bring a Brexit vote closer possibly this year, June or September I think of the two periods being talked about. So there's going to be some uncertainty about how much the Bank of England can do before that kind of vote. So the thinking that maybe that Brexit in itself is not a cause for weakness in the pound, but it can, you know, can be a reason that the Bank of England would hold off. And so that's, you know, that's I think part of the reason why we've seen such a sharp sell-off, but you know, given that we've hit these multi-year lows, you know, has it all been priced in? Can we really take the currency lower before that, before that vote's even been made? Possibly not. Now, very interesting chart setting up in the Euro at the moment. This is a daily chart. You can see these fairly consistent reversals of this downsloping trend line here. This is also a weekly high and a lower weekly high here. But more interesting than I would say is that we've got a weekly low here and then a higher weekly low. So signs that the down trend that really kicked off back in October over speculation of a, you know, further easing, which was then disappointed in December, you know, signs that maybe that, you know, we're actually going to find these maybe see some follow-through on that initial reaction in December, maybe a topside breakout of this declining trend line. We do have the 200-day moving average above us. So well below that 200-day moving average, you know, upside may be limited, but what I think could be interesting here is the fact that the 200-day is starting to slope higher. So obviously the market's been very flat, but the 200-day, the average over the last 200-days is starting to slope up again. That's not characteristic of a down trend, but you know, that's more characteristic of an up trend as is this higher weekly low. So a couple of reasons to think that maybe we could eventually get a push through what the important one is that it's just a 110 here. I've drawn this declining trend line. I think that could give us an early warning signal, but we probably want a weekly close above 110 to really tell us that we're in business. Draghi is speaking at 4 p.m. today. So if he says anything particularly disappointing, we could get a pretty quick move to the top side here. But chances are he's probably going to really try and talk down the currency again, arguably even more so in response to the Bank of Japan, given that they've just made efforts to weaken their currency, essentially, with the negative interest rates. So Draghi may feel it's necessary to step up the rhetoric to push down the euro. In which case that would kind of set up an interesting scenario where maybe you get a push down through this low from the 21st of January, maybe even this low from the 5th of January. And the nature of the beast is obviously with trading, the stop losses are often placed beneath lows. That's generally how we define the trend, isn't it? So what you can sometimes see is that the price will push lower into the kind of area where you see people selling, selling on a breakdown and cutting their losses with a stop loss. So you see both stop losses and entry orders on a break lower. So what you can see is sometimes is that big, saddier players in the market, aware of the kind of general dynamic, will push prices lower on a news event, like Draghi speaking, into an area of lots of liquidity, where there's lots of selling going on, on a break down and stop losses, and take that and buy all those sell orders up and more, and push the market higher. So that could be something to look out for. Moving over to commodities, obviously another reason why we're down in equities today is that we're pushing a bit lower in crude oil. So I mentioned to my previous chart post was on this pretty well-defined declining trend line. I think that's seen on the four-hour chart, but you can on the daily two. We pushed straight through it. Wasn't even, I think there was maybe one slight hesitation or candlestick there. We ran straight through it, but we saw a sharp reversal on the same day that we did break through it from this previous support area, which I had on my chart, on this one here. So we pulled back from that. We pushed higher again. So we're kind of in the short term we're a bit sideways in oil. Quite possibly we need another little push lower towards support at $33.50 or maybe even $32.75. These peaks here or this peak here to have a real chance of getting through $35.75. But I think probably, despite this sharp reversal here, there's a good chance we can. The market was overly short. And I don't think that there's too much interest in heavily shorting after this big squeeze. And even though it looks like probably there isn't going to be a joint output cut from both Russia and OPEC, which is part of what fueled this big spike in prices, there's still a possibility of it. And I think maybe that could dissuade a few people going short at such low levels. The other big one to note is hopefully some of you will watch my short snapshot video on gold from Thursday. Back when we're up at this trend line here, I talked about a possible retracement from this. At that point, it was a possible trend line because we'd closed below it there, shown some evidence of resistance. I said there could be a pullback to the 110 area, which was these two previous peaks. That's pretty much what we've got. We're pushing back higher towards the peak again now. So a little retracement and bounce of previous resistance turns poor. And characteristic of a strong trend in gold with this pullback here, if we'd come all the way back to the lows, maybe this low from the 22nd of January, or particularly even back to beneath 1080, still characters and uptrends, still holding above this significant low here, about 107.2. But a much weaker uptrend. The fact that we managed to bounce straight off that 110 is a bit more characteristic of a stronger trend, where we're finding support at old highs rather than old lows. And so, indicating we could get a push through the old high, but we do have a confluence of resistance at around 1130 from the 200-day moving average and the 61.8% FIBO. Well, the FIBO actually have not been working particularly perfectly on this push higher. But still, when combined with the 200-day, could, and the round number of the sort of 1130, could together cause a bit of a sell-off there, which is only just above the previous peak. So we have to watch for that. But if we can close above those levels, not much in the way of resistance, really, all the way back up to 1180. So I think that's about it. I've said most of what I need to say. Not seen any questions here, so thank you all for attending. Good luck with trading this week. Jasper Lawler signing out.