 Thank you for coming and thank our guests. This is the, in our Countdown to Brexit series. We have an all British panel today. I think that's the first time we've done that in the history of the industry, I could be corrected on that, but as I say, an all British panel to discuss the future of the UK. As a foreign affairs think tank, we're naturally interested in what, how British society will evolve and what that will mean for how Britain is a neighbor and a partner, bilaterally in Europe and how that thing's developed. We're going to try and avoid Brexit. It'll come up. Try, try. I know, I know. For sanity reasons. That won't work, of course, but I would urge people, if you have a question, maybe, and you toss it between a non-Brexit question and a Brexit question, go for the non-Brexit question to try to distract us from that issue. So try to look beyond the sort of blizzard of Brexit news and consider where things will be in the future. Each panelist will speak for about five minutes to introduce their thoughts. We may have a quick discussion and then we'll go out to you for your comments and your questions. So let me introduce our three speakers. We have Bill Emmett, who's the author of 13 books, the latest of which is The Fate of the West. He's a regular contributor to publications all around the world with opinion pieces. And I spend most of his career at The Economist, where he was editor-in-chief for 13 years. Katharine Simpson may sound Irish. She spent a few years here, but is indeed British. She's senior lecturer in political economy at Manchester Metropolitan University and, among other things, she specialises in public opinion and comparative European politics. She has a couple of books coming out soon. Ella Aquiman is an author, commentator and journalist. Her latest book is What Women Want, Fun, Freedom and an End to Feminism. She's producer of London's annual Battle of Ideas Festival. She's written for many publications, including The Economist, and has until recently been the associate editor of Spike Online. Good. So maybe we'll go in reverse order to the way I've introduced and ask Ella to open. Thank you. Thanks very much. I'm going to upset you greatly because I think we cannot have this discussion without talking about Brexit, so I'm afraid... I'm afraid I refuse the beginning plea to not talk about it. And for one simple reason, and that's because Brexit is not a policy question and it is not... cannot fit into one section of a manifesto. It cannot be fixed done away with finished, completed. Brexit is a spirit. It's a demand. It's a push for change. I think it has to be looked at much more holistically in order to understand it and understand where we would be in six years in 2025. I mean, they say 24 hours is a long time in politics but I'll tell you, for the last two and a half, three years has meant anything. It's that this issue is not going away any time soon. And I'm glad of that. Very glad of that. I'm a... I think... I'm the only Brexit voter on the power? I am the only Brexit voter on the power. I'm one of those 17.4 million elusive working class people that you only hear about on the telly if they've sort of been derided by politicians or talked down to by those who want to seem to be pro-Brexit. And I think I want to outline really what I think will happen in 2025 if we either have Brexit or if we don't. I think that's going to... that's sort of the important way to look at it. If you do enact Brexit and my desire for that would be to go for a no-deal and March 29th because I think that's the only credible way of holding out democracy at this point. If you do see that vote through then what you have is a really exciting prospect. You have an electorate who have turned out in the great system. It's the biggest political mandate in British history. You have a really forceful, open sense of what politics can be. If that is realised then we can have discussions about all kinds of things. And I think one of the important things is that it's very hard to place exactly what Britain would look like in six years, even one year's time. Because the point of what the drive of Brexit was about was a desire for a complete shake-up. So the fact that neither Labour nor the Conservatives have managed to capture this Brexit spirit shows that those parties don't serve anymore. I mean, there's the turn-outs in general elections before Brexit showed that no one is really massively excited about the prospect of things carrying on as they are. Whether it's the government's approach to immigration recently with the Windrush scandal and the outrage that that showed, it shows that the government's completely out of step in relation to that kind of domestic policy. I think there's lots of questions that are open to say that people want something different. We were talking beforehand about the rise of minority governments and coalition governments, and that to me signals that politics as it stands at the moment just cannot hold. The status quo is really a doable thing. For me, that's a very exciting prospect. Recently in British politics I imagine you all watched the rise and subsequent relative embarrassment of the independent group as they broke away from their parties and decided to form this very vague notion of centrism. And it was a really good indicator of, I think, where politics is going wrong at the moment, because initially they had no demands and when they were asked whether or not they had any demands for what kind of Britain they wanted, they said, that's the old way of doing politics. That doesn't hold any more, and you kind of think, okay, so the new way of doing politics is to have no opinions, no ideas, no plan, no manifesto. That kind of shows you, I think, what Brexit was trying to challenge. So if Brexit does happen, the sky's the limit, in my point of view. You could have, I've got some and Spike has some very radical views about the kind of left-wing populism that could emerge and could transform people's lives and, you know, kickstart the economy in a different means of kind of progressive transformation. There's all sorts of things you could do with that challenge to the stage that kind of genuine hope in politics is a very important force. If Brexit does not happen, and here I'm going to not threaten but warn, I think, a warning voice for the British political establishment, if Brexit does not happen, then what you are saying to the ordinary voter whose only means of political engagement is putting an X in a box every four years, or occasionally being asked to speak up in a referendum, what you're saying is that X in that box is worthless, meaningless. I'd be very surprised if anyone takes a general election seriously ever again. If you have politicians who've stood on manifestos promising to enact Brexit they did in 2017 and going back on that as they now are. Their jobs aren't worth the paper that they're written on. It really will mean an end to democracy as it stands in Britain and people have called me hysterical for saying that but I think it's true and certainly the feeling among the public is that there was a Sky News poll came out last night when I was doing a talk that said that 37% of people think that the last two and a half years have been disastrous and that everything's gone wrong and that's not a damning indictment on Brexit, that's a damning indictment on British politics and British politicians of which I think it's roughly 74% of pro-remain. So you've got this very exciting prospect for the future of British politics for me because on the one hand you have a political establishment and elite that is so incredibly out of step with the British populace anti-Brexit anti-democracy largely in their cause for second referendums and delays and you've got a really exciting prospect for a new kind of politics to come up, I would hope a left-wing politics that would galvanise and capitalise on the kind of openness within the British public's political desires. Then again it could also go very wrong and there are movements across Europe whether it be with an Italy in France that shows that there is the threat of right-wing populism. So it's a kind of free brawl time we're in but there's openness for change and I think my main point is to end on is that those who are arguing against Brexit or even those who are arguing that Brexit is simply a policy position that can be put to bed once we've resolved it with May's rubbish deal or some kind of extension and a fluffy means to it don't realise that this is a redefining of I think not just British politics but European politics. It's a call for rejecting the status quo and doing something radically new. I think anyone who argues for the status quo or reactionary position in politics now is in deep water because it just went stand and it won't go. Thanks Alain, I think that's an important perspective I think of all the perspectives in Britain that a pro-Brexit left-wing one is the one that maybe we leased here in this country and it's interesting to get your view just to follow up for later maybe that it immediately comes to mind is there a country or a political leader anywhere else in the world and not asking you now that you find inspiring from that perspective maybe one we can follow up on Councillor First of all thank you very much for the invitation it's a real delight to be here today and I have to say it's probably one of the hardest panels I've had to put together looking at the UK in 2025 considering we really don't know what's happening in UK politics tomorrow and never mind as I say as far ahead as 2025 I'm going to make five points looking under that theme and then I say very happy to have questions afterwards I think the first point I'd like to make is that calls for changes to the first past the post system will probably happen Brexit was very much a mixture of long-standing regional grievance about the EU but in addition to people feeling disconnected and very angry about the political class that type of disconnection is quite common in Europe and the US but in the UK with the first past the post voting system there's not really an easy way for voters to express their anger so the Brexit vote is very much evidence therefore that something is wrong with the UK it was an opportunity for people to have their voice heard and at some point the electoral system will have to change some would argue we've already had a vote on that the alternative vote referendum in 2011 but really some type of almost radical devolution for England is necessary government from the centre is clearly not working especially for people in areas such as the north east and also the far south west of England and that kind of radical devolution for England would mix up the political class and you would get a much much more diverse background to that political class as well we know that immigration was a key issue for many people in these communities in the 2016 referendum and I think there is a real need to distinguish between those that are have been branded as racist or are racist and have had a lot of concerns over public services and those in particular in the north of England who place emphasis on that sense of place and identity politics the current UK government and I think future UK government could do a lot more to discuss immigration in a very grown up and constructive manner that still really hasn't happened since the referendum the second point I would like to make is that the British political system is undergoing substantial change some kind of nothing new in some respects but British society has always been driven by class division but since the 1980s under Thatcher there is a feeling that has become stronger that political parties are not engaging with people who are not middle class and who don't live outside or inside the London bubble of the M25 those people used to believe that the Labour Party was listening and representing them but successive Labour leaders I'm looking at Kinnock I'm looking at Smith, Blair created a Labour Party which was electorally successful but not in touch with constituencies and previously voters could forgive the Labour Party for this because they won elections but not anymore the economic and financial crisis of 2007 or 2008 didn't really help if you were close to the poverty line and suddenly everything gets more expensive and your wages stagnate that will inevitably create more disaffection and dissatisfaction but that is only one part of this story genuine grievance with the UK political party system which erodes and almost minimizes people's voices so UK political parties will look different and I think we are starting to see that now the Conservatives will have to listen to the working class not just the middle class and Labour will have to find a way through this to appeal to both the middle and working classes as well the third point I would like to make is that political party splits are unlikely the British electoral system favors established parties it's hard for new parties to develop because the UK electoral system is one as I say that favors those established parties and while the UK have experienced some electoral success in particular in the 2014 European Parliament elections that has never been translated to the national level that's because that first pass the post system favors those established political parties and it's difficult to break through I think what you will see is a continuation of divisions within both parties becoming a lot more pronounced and becoming a lot more issue based and really fracturing on those lines of remain and leave I think for the Conservatives how much immigration of sovereignty of voters willing to accept is something that they really need to consider but for Labour I think they need to look at how comfortable voters are with immigration the European Union overall and the European single market and do they need to try and get back voters from UKIP from those left behind areas or are they really someone that the Conservatives need to be starting to get? Catherine just for time reasons the fourth and fifth one so I think Brexit has fueled distrust in politics we can again look at that and I think towns are really key we talk about regions towns are the key in England for any political party and I think it's a much longer narrative as well about the decline of British politics in general Thank you and your point about the radical devolution just to say to people Douglas Carswell the UKIP MP was originally agreed to speak but had to pull out for business reasons and people may recall that when he spoke here last time he was very much of that view about radical devolution so maybe we'll pick up on that another important strand of thinking we might pick up on that during the conversation Bill? Thanks Dan and I'll follow on with some fairly nitty grudges I think a lot of the principles have been already put out there and I can always contribute to the question but I would just start with two points of principle one is that I absolutely agree that 2008 is fundamental I think that we in any country in Western Europe or North America we ignore the worst financial crisis for 80 years and the consequences that it's had for people at our peril but we shouldn't think that this was as it were a Deus Ex Machina that came from outside it was a consequence also of a series of developments over the previous decade or more that are the background to our issues second, I think a fundamental problem with Brexit as a divider is in addition to the thing that Ella said was exemplified by the statistic that she produced which is that 74% of British parliamentarians are remain they were elected in 2017 after Brexit they were elected by parties who had a manifesto commitment as you say to deliver Brexit but nevertheless constituents elected people whose personal beliefs were different so we've got a parliament that is the product of Brexit and yet is we're not a favour of Brexit so Brexit is very hard to use as the right issue both parties are divided fundamentally but over all sorts of issues including particularly immigration welfare and security in the US so what will the next 5 to 10 years I will take the assumption that Brexit happened one way or another I won't bother with the no Brexit but we can talk about it over questions on the assumption that Brexit happened one way or another I think first of all as everyone in this institute knows very well Brexit won't have barely begun when we leave it will be the beginning of internal and external negotiation of thought second because of all of the issues that will have to be negotiated externally with our trading partners and European Union but also internally because secondly I do think that if Brexit assuming Brexit does happen within both parties there will be an effect of battle for true Brexit the real divide of politics will become how to make the best of Brexit and the battle within and between the parties will be fundamentally shaped by that for at least quite a few years on the right that will mean a battle to as it were express Brexit through more free trade, deregulation any tax cutting opportunities that can be had to add to it left it will be much more about state intervention, nationalisation and other issues but in either direction you would have I think a battle to define true Brexit secondly though if we look at that as being a few forecasts about the politics of Britain and Europe I think that that means that we will sail away further as far as we can from the European Union but then gradually sail back not to rejoin but rather because actually the politics will come onto a different lot of issues especially because I think the next fundamental issue that a Brexit assumption brings on is the future of the United Kingdom itself that we can't ignore if Brexit happens there's absolutely going to be pressure for a new independence referendum in Scotland there will absolutely then be an attempt to get a board of whole in the north and I don't want to predict what either will produce but if you think that either those constituent parts of the United Kingdom might secede then you change all the arithmetic of British politics and of Westminster and you change some of the identity issues about England and you change the issues about devolution you also then lob into this the question of coalitions until the 2015 election on the basis of all the previous four or five elections it was fair to say that the British party system was fragmenting and that the result of the two major parties was declining election after election that was then reversed in 2017 and we suddenly got a two party system I would just disagree with Catherine to say I don't think it's impossible for a third party to break through it's very difficult I think at the risk of being unacademic with a counterfactual I think the SDP might have broken through if the Falklands war hadn't happened but nevertheless the Falklands war did happen but so it's very difficult but I think it could happen in some circumstances but then also we are likely to get into coalition final point I think that the framing issue because of the 2008 and the consequences and all the background to this is going to be as in also many countries including this one, the battle between like public squalor and private affluence named inequality but also about the ability of the public finances to afford the services that people want to vote for and that will be with a longer term definition of politics Thank you Bill just a thought was 2008 the most defining event or happening of the 21st century so far, was it 9-11 was it the election of Trump, was it the referendum maybe just Do you want me to answer straight away? Trump was a consequence I don't think he's, well it depends what he does but I don't think he's the defining clearly 9-11 and then the Iraq war in international affairs and then 2008 have to be seen as the defining events in my view but they are connected to some extent in that I think that the 9-11 and the Iraq war in my view led to an attitude to regulation and monetary policy in the United States that helped the credit bubble to inflate and led to a benign neglect position that produced the excesses that led to that in my view I'll come to Ella on the point about possible inspiration, you could indicate if you have an interest in making a point or having a question we've got one already but Ella any thoughts on models for the UK any people, parties that you admire? No but one thing that I have been watching with interest in an occasion to express solidarity with husband and gilet movement, not because it's not without its flaws but I think there's something really interesting happening within that uprising because if you look at what the problem they have at the moment is it's a leaderless movement and it's a decidedly leaderless movement which has contradictory claims so it wants to have bigger public spending but lower taxes how are you going to do that? The part of that challenge is it's directly a challenge that says the way that the current kind of compromise of politics where you have to give a little, take a little all the time doesn't work for them anymore, the fact that any leader that tries to speak for them whether it be some members of the Moon and the Penns party or others haven't managed to encapsulate what it stands for and some people see that as it just being a mob I see that as it again being a challenge to come up with a new way of politics I think that's the thing that across Europe, it's not a uniquely British problem I think, is that there's sort of a feeling of stagnation in the way in which people engage with politics, nothing really changes kind of what I wrote on Spike about a kind of technocratic approach which everything is about maintaining a status quo, balancing the books, never rocking the boat I just think that people for so long have been sort of disillusioned by that and even apathetic but the inspiration of the kind of guxiness of Brexit I think has opened up a space where you could rock the boat and see what happens Maybe to both of you and Catherine here, is the status quo a bit like health, you only miss it when you don't have it that maybe not having the status quo and causing rupture could end up unleashing things that are damaging do you think for example the British could emulate the Gilles Jean movement I lived in the UK at the time with the Kuhl protests and nobody saw it coming, it came out of the blue it almost shut the country down, it's actually quite a frightening moment you may be too young to remember it but it was British do protest at times is it possible that things will go that way particularly if Brexit doesn't happen for example the 17.4 will there be an activist movement a more protest movement, do you see things turning in that direction it was quickly I hope and that would be if it did happen that I would be out on the streets with them I got a huge amount of trouble for saying that on the BBC Radio 4 on a Sunday morning a few weeks ago and said I was inciting and uprising but the fact is British politics is different, French come out of the drop of a hat and I'm not trying to do them down for that but I think the interesting thing about the status quo is that if you look at pre-Brexit in terms of economics the status quo was dire, it wasn't so long ago that we were all rowing about austerity the situation for your average working person in England is crap, even if you are in a job it's a low value job it's precarious work you've got no opportunity to improve your quality of life it's kind of stagnant the interesting thing is that the anti-Brexit corral is asking us to stay at that point to deal with that to just suck up that status quo and I think that's an incredibly unreasonable demand to put on people just on that I think again pre-Brexit the status quo was really bad and in some respects nothing has changed post-Brexit, post-2016 the issues about inequality and economic insecurity are in the precarious nature of employment and again in the UK it's not like other European countries where in France the strikes are very prevalent that just does not happen in the UK and I also think that the three-year period of post-Brexit has also been a missed opportunity as well because it hasn't really rallied people around the general consensus among the public now is let's just get on with it and you think what is it that you want us to get on with almost echoing the kind of indecisive nature of parliament as well so I think as well that it has the potential to fundamentally change things but hasn't really done so yet and there's no indication that it will come next week or the coming months okay good, we've got a bunch already but I don't know what you were first up I thought that the purpose of this seven hours project might happen in a couple years time so I hope to take up what some of you have said in six or seven years time there would be a completely new electoral system in Britain it would be proportional representation in some shape or form secondly another thing that will happen is that eventually I don't know, pretty soon you guys in Britain will suddenly realize the mirrors of what Lord Turnbull former cabinet secretary said that you need a separation of powers between the executive and the legislature and so what you will have is you will have a proportional electoral system you will be electing the executive separately to the electoral system there will be a real separation of powers maybe not on the American model and the advantages of this is that it will allow new parties to grow take for example you keep got how many what proportion of the electorate in a recent election and they didn't get, they got one seat in Parliament absolutely outrageous by the way lest you think that that's a great idea I think that that will happen but it depends on you guys and I'm assuming that my Brexit representative which is what I'm taking from Ella is that a major cultural shift has already happened they don't get it in the political parties either Tory or Labour they don't get it in the academics like Catherine you do but you don't see it in other commentary the effect here is that for example we haven't re-elected we've only re-elected an outgoing government once in the last 50 years only once the last major one party government was a disaster in the 70s because it did not respond to the crisis of the oil crisis and it gave rise to a depression in the 80s we've had two major crisis since that and the last government that was re-elected was in 2004 or 2002 and it too was a disaster because it didn't stop the Celtic craziness the result is that we have the highest per capita debt in the Eurozone and the third highest in the world after Japan and the States so I ask you so if you be careful what you wish for respond the same just one thing that I thought you might refer to was social media and its impact bearing in mind the continuing growth of inequality since the great recession which has stirred so many feelings but now politicians are not expressing the interests and concerns of their constituents the constituents have a means to communicate and build up pressure but it's manifested itself in the States with Trump as the deliberately manipulation is with Cambridge and Lisigan has a very decisive impact the decisive impact I think on the referendum and what you have there is a very richly been supported here by a left of center person which I find was quite interesting and at the same time I think you have avoided completely the economic consequences of Brexit and we have studied it quite a lot of people who have very significant adverse impacts here in Ireland and very significant adverse impacts in the UK and that surely has to be factored into what happens and what Britain is going to reflect in 2025 and those people who gave their one comment when they put the X on the ballot paper are not going to thank a lot of people which is why professional politicians are desperately trying to get out from under and what they have to reflect I think that was aimed at you mostly Alan maybe you could elaborate on where you see the big opportunities you were saying that the policies that have left policies could be introduced that could really change people's lives maybe you come back on that and Bill the issue of social media how do you think British politics has been affected by social media and how do you think it will be affected over the next 2025 is it a big well I think on that question I think everybody's politics is now dominated by and affected by social media it didn't exist 10 years ago essentially it exists now secondly it's alongside a situation in which thanks to the 2008 financial crisis and the debt issues that have restricted the perceived range of options that governments have had we can argue about whether that was the right perception but the perceived range of options currently thanks to social media people are running on personality and ideas and not on policy that's what all the democratic candidates in the United States are basically exceptionalism with Warren are ignoring policy and it's all about personality and about ideas and rejecting the status quo and so forth and that is just populism put into a modern context populism is a reaction to a failure to deliver in conventional forms and to try to elect now if you can be elected predicting rupture and demanding rupture with the status quo you then actually have to deliver that so we've seen a succession of people who said that they're going to be delivering rupture in parliament in elections and then a failure to deliver Nicholas Sarkozy from the right all sorts of other people so then the question is whether you deliver so I think social media is very important but it's just a reality of life now and how you market and how you deal with things it makes perhaps other voices a bit wider did you want to come in on that particular just a very very small point about social media again I agree with Bill it's a part of daily life now and I think if you're any political party you have to embrace it and you have to have a social media strategy it's as simple as that but there is a big difference as well between the type of social media so Twitter is very much seen and there's been a lot of analysis and academic research around this in particular by Rob Ford by Rachel Gibson the elite Facebook has seen very much as kind of the grassroots there is a big difference between the types of social media that is used and how they are used as well to galvanize and to kind of transmit a message as well and is that UK specific or whatever that's across the board UK is no exception to that rule you have to be very very careful I think as well when you talk about social media what type of social media you're talking about and how you're targeting the most mainstream economists and I know you were on a panel last night with somebody maybe not part of that group but most mainstream economists think that if you put up barriers to trade you'll reduce activity and there will be a negative effect you may not agree with that but certainly that issue that you raised in your opening remarks about the opportunities of populist left politics you might just elaborate on well Hans, yeah I'm not an economist but the point about you having studied it and me not is probably very true in the terms that I've not made a career out of examining or freaking out about the kind of scaremongering about the post-Brexit economy but I think one thing that you have to remember is that everything that we were talking about now we have heard already in 2016 I mean even to a greater extent during the referendum campaign all the big business all of the political establishment was down and saying that this would bring economic catastrophe that the Pound would absolutely plummet that we'd all be out on our ears that we'd have no food left the Pound did plummet and the forecast would turn out to be accurate but the point is perhaps this wasn't disaster the point is the point is that people still voted for it I think that's the thing that you forget is that people said the people who are supposedly absolutely fair point but let's project we don't want to get into refighting the referendum but just in terms of let's try and just bring it away from that and just look at what for example if Jeremy Corbyn were elected I know you're not a fan but just in terms of what you think could happen in the future if the kind of policies that you favour what are those policies can you just some idea around that and how could they change things for the better in Britain Jeremy Corbyn and Labour Party want to stay in A customs union or some kind of customs union if it's B customs union so I don't think that would enact any kind of meaningful change I sign up to a kind of left wing populist agressive policy from the economist Phil Mullan who wrote a book called creative destruction where he talked about the fact that you need to deal with the underlining issue of the economy which is the lack of production so actually his point is and my point is will neither be the magic pill nor the death knell the British economy because its problems are so much deeper and so the point is that Brexit allows you to break the deadlock of not only political stagnation but also economic stagnation you better off reading his book it's called creative destruction than me summarising it here but what he says is that we should enact a very strong bottom up policy he's got three S's stop, start and sponsor cut away all failing businesses and you let them go to the wall restart innovation and really kind of pump money into getting us more productive again and you sponsor people through that progress so it's a really kind of it's a bottom up and challenging radical view of completely reshaping the economy and people rolled their eyes at me and certainly I spoke at Coots last night they certainly did not know where the hell I was coming from when I sat in the main foyer at Coots talking about it but it's reflects I think the aspiration for big ideas and blue sky thinking and saying that actually the way things are going at the moment which is just a means to keep things ticking over and ticking over quite badly just will not do any of that Phil Mullins not a name I don't know if many people have heard of him but maybe who knows we could invite him particularly in a lot of ways Colin Raptor two big questions we did not serve in the last couple of years do you think that situation will improve by 2025 and given that there may or may not be a reference discussion which may fail what do you see is the role of the SMP in the next few years and the reason I say this is because I have quite struck by what Phil said about the third parties but the SMP is a third party so I don't see the SMP role within the UK context thank you I can jump in on that we were talking about this downstairs actually in the role of the media fortunately enough to do quite a lot of media work probably because I live in striking distance in media city but the fact is I think you're right in particular in the 2016 referendum campaign and the BBC have come under heavy criticism forward about the inability to distinguish between impartial and being balanced and I think that's starting to maybe shift a little bit now I've done some recent research on the influence of the tabloid press which let's be honest this is kind of a hallmark of the UK and UK politics and I think there's serious questions as well there to be asked around the narrative can they better serve the British public and I think that's kind of social media traditional media and newspapers I think they have a duty to but it's it's difficult to see that at the moment in terms of the role of the SMP a very very small point because I'll pass over to Bill but this was a question on everybody's mind straight after the referendum about, you know, indie ref too current polling for a second independence referendum is kind of 43% it's fallen through the floor and the SMP in the last general election did not poll as well and lost seats substantially so any general election coming up the SMP really do need to kind of construct themselves around the narrative and the narrative that they have chosen is one to be kind of very pro-European so far which is appealing to a certain aspect of their base but not all because there's a big base of the SMP that fall into that economic insecurity, precarious left behind kind of populist as well so they are in a precarious scenario so when I talk about you know people get very excited about a potential general election to break this deadlock all political parties are up against this because Brexit has fractured political parties internally on remain and leave lines or media just mainly connect back to the social media question I mean the media has fragmented the media has changed the media is no longer a small group of newspaper editors sitting in Fleet Street deciding whether people rise and fall and that will continue to change over the next 5 to 10 years so if you say what's the media position going to be in 2025 it's in newspapers will have their readership going those newspapers that are still there whether online or digital will basically then tailor their political position according to the environment that they're in either for or against where it is so in terms of shaping the position they will be even more politicized in the future I think because they're fighting for their survival and taking the Fox News right will become of a renewed interest but media will become less influential because of social media which distributes it all around SNP I agree actually with Catherine that I think we've seen peak SNP for the moment they are in decline partly because they've been in government in Scotland for quite a long time now and Alex Salmond couldn't happen to a nicer man and that has I think damaged him partly as well because obviously he was very much their symbol so they've got a way to go in terms of getting back their grip but if they declined to 30 seats they could still be the king maker in a future general election there are 56 56 even after so they could still be the king maker and then they could but it all depends on what the situation is with regard to Europe, Brexit alternative policies and so forth some of the approaches that Ella outlines could be popular in Scotland and the SNP has actually a left-wing background about them by the way Mr Mullins ideas sound neoliberal to me but nevertheless they sound like Hayek might agree with them but we might talk about that at another event I think it's very interesting absolutely, absolutely good Martin you are next my question is actually about 2025 and that's the state of immigration in 2025 and clearly this was an issue that was a driving factor behind the referendum the one relative I have in England who is from the Indian subcontinent he voted for Brexit on the grounds that there would be less immigrants from Eastern Europe and more from his part of the world now the view does give me some evidence at the moment that while immigration from Eastern Europe and the EU general is right down it is a driving factor from other parts of the world now is it the case that actually the anti-immigration thing is a little bit like King Canute and the tide that the British economy is going to continue to need immigration and that people will find in 2025 that while the composition of immigration may be different nothing else will change Ella do you want to just pick up on I don't think you mentioned your views on immigration and how important it is as a driver in politics I think it's I mean it wasn't the top reason why people voted for Brexit but it was certainly very important I think it's important to distinguish between the problem with the discussion about immigration in the UK has been that any discussion of it has been labelled quite quickly as either having roots or some kind of xenophobia or a bigoted outlook and rather than make people more progressive in relation to their approaches to immigration I think that's deepened the kind of resentment among people which is certainly not where we should be going I personally perhaps one of the an unusual Brexiteer and that spiked up repeatedly and has always argued for an open approach to immigration post-Brexite I think the important thing to mention is very much up the grabs and have I mentioned in her own speech about the fact that people interpret or see their approach to things like immigration very much in relation to a complex range of issues so it's simply not just about hating the person who's from a different country next to you it's about means of access to the society's resources I think one very interesting thing to know and it's just an example that I often use to kind of pose this is that UKIP was fantastically popular in the run-up to the referendum during the referendum was in the millions and then that tanked post-referendum to 500,000 or something like that which showed that this narrative of Brexite being just about a hatred of foreigners or an isolationist approach did not stand up also in relation to the Windrush scandal that happened recently in the UK people were polled on how they felt about the British government essentially having a hostile environment for black people and they were polled by it and actually the people who were most polled by it were in the over 65s and above so your classic Brexite voter so I think the whole thing is that immigration often gets used as a stick to beat Brexite with it's this kind of very negative thing what doesn't get heard is the fact that the EU's own approach to immigration is I think despicable I mean fortress Europe has meant that people are dying in the sea and what's happening in Libya is you could argue a direct result of the kind of immigration policy that the EU has so by all accounts we need to have a big discussion about immigration I will be the kind of person that's arguing for a pro and open one and I don't think that's as unlikely as people make it out to be Bill, do you want to? I would rather agree with what David said on that I think that it's a complex issue it's always toxic for different reasons and it's very rarely therefore gets a proper assessment actually I don't think in 2025 Britain will be a closed country to immigration whether it has more or less than X or Y who knows but I don't think we're suddenly going to close the doors Gentleman here Steven all the most about first off it's quite work for a bank I'm delighted we've had it here because the forces that create a destruction challenge an institute like this I believe that we're having this discussion my question is more that that populace left you talking about I'm not talking about other socialist and socialist technocrats took them over sucked the life out of them made us all apathetic I'm not endorsing going back to that model but the great socialist parties in the mid 20th century they did have to be organised to change and implement the idea and that's where there seems to be a gap and I think in the L of S I think it was Leon the L of S beating the head off on the other end of the street because somewhere on the far left and somewhere on the far right and that's my question you've stated the problem hopes but I just don't see how that populace left the organised itself and what do you think clearly for you I mean I'm glad you asked the question because here then you have to admit the fact that especially in the UK working class consciousness or a kind of sense of political organisation among the working class is at its lowest point ever I mean that's part of the problem in relation to organising around the Brexit is that you have had decades of not only the disillusionment of the working class but the degradation of the working class and we were talking about identity politics earlier I mean the one thing that it's considered scum to be today is working class I mean whether it be about discussions about the media influencing us with us idiots who all we did was read a sign on a bus and then we voted or Cambridge Analytica once control our minds there's been a real attack on the working class in the UK and that has meant that I'm depressed at saying this but the march on the 23rd this Saturday for a people's vote is going to be giant I'm pretty sure of that and the march representing the 17.4 million people who voted in the referendum for the Brexit vote I don't think will be as large and that's not because people don't care people don't want change but because there's this sense of it being very difficult to organise so I have no easy answer for you but I think the important thing is that the option is to continue to argue for something and you're very right about the problems within the gilet jaune for example because you know at some point they are going to have to coalesce and say well what is it that you actually want you can't just continue to go smashing up things that sort of thing isn't going to work but the thing that comes around to organise it has to be right, not right wing but it has to be it has to find a right kind of new way and any kind of attempt to clamp down or reshape this through what the Labour Party means I mean the Labour Party has tried to say that it's for the many not the few which is utterly bizarre given the fact that it is campaigning against the many in the interests of the few in relation to its anti-Brexit stance so you know class politics or left wing politics the left is dead in the UK and I'm not saying that with relish but that doesn't mean that there's not ground for something different to happen actually as it happens I think it's very really the case now is whether you are a Democrat or anti-Democrat, Brexit has completely redefined any kind of political side. Okay we've got loads of questions in only about eight minutes, I've got to take two here Peter. Thank you, could I ask the panel to speculate on Britain in the world in 2025 whether it will have perhaps recovered some of the influence that seems to have squandered over the past couple of years and it would be the main characteristics of its external and commercial policy between trading a book and of its defence and foreign policies relations with China, Russia the US, human rights and so on. We've only got eight minutes. I have a quick say. I'm a daily member of the Institute, can I ask the panel for your views on how important the parameter of the class is that now vis-a-vis 2025 and where you see it going and particularly given the changing nature of work how do you see the self-identification of working class changing or is it going to be the same? Catherine let me start with you on either one of them. I will start with the last one first if that's alright. The importance of class I mean I slightly disagree with Ella on her point of we shouldn't identify now as kind of left and right there's been quite a lot of analysis in the last week or two by the UK in changing Europe saying that while Brexit has kind of fractured that it is still really important for politics and it's not really going anywhere soon and that's linked to the points I've made about the first class of the post system and the electoral system that we have in the UK so I think class is still going to be really really important but the problem is is that the kind of old traditional definitions of class are starting to waver and we've really seen this kind of since the 1980s where you look at a policy like Margaret Thatcher introduced about buying your council house and everyone's moving from working class to middle class and we're all middle class now type thing and that trend is continuing but I think really in a post Brexit environment kind of in 2025 we will see a redefinition of class and what it means to be that and political parties need to kind of understand what they mean and how they identify with their voters in that way. Bill, Britain 2025 trade and security I think Britain will be a diminished power in the world in both trade and security in 2025 I'd be a bit more optimistic about 2035 in the sense that I think that because we will be going through a lot of change in the next 5 to 7 years I don't think that we will also have governments that will focus on emphasis on building an influential role in either trade or security in that period because they'll be too distracted by other things and their resources will be there in those other directions so I think that inevitably we will be a diminished force in both areas. Three more on LEU first dibs on this. Bill, 2025 UK economically, commercially and unemployment What picture do you see? Thanks for fixing it. Rocking the status quo is not a destination as you acknowledge yourself with the G-Lation so where is that destination? Bill raised the issue of how austerity can come in after 2008 and I'd say to enjoy a new variety because you have to be responsible they are already insecure of income and you're concerned for them but at the same time we're about to see an expert and don't give me goals like forget about experts experts across are saying Brexit will mean 900 to 1,000 pounds less per head of population in the UK now I just make one point that may be pocket money to at least more but that's 10% of the salary of someone living in the North East of England so I don't know how you from the left can say that that loss of money is worth imposing on the marginalised in society for the next 5 years what are the periods in that? Brian Very quickly very similar to the one before last but one small point 17.4 gets mentioned a lot and I think you mentioned the biggest fan out in British history there was 17.4 million people actually voted to join the agreement in 1973 which actually represented a two to one majority of the time and 30% of the population 17.4 today represented 52% 26% of the population which is important probably just to remember some of the values I think it goes from one of the earlier points around the system and the first possible mentality you know arguably created this dynamic that kind of winner takes all which I think for a country that is largely because of balance in many ways of British history UK in 2025 perhaps might necessarily be as balanced just the sense I have that maybe it's a part of the question though So Ella I'm sure you might want to pick up on that one there So the people who are most likely to vote Brexit with those who are in social housing no formal education and earning under £1,200 although it's very hard for some people to wrap their heads around the people who are at that economic stage or the working class or those who are working but just about managing can think beyond their pockets and I think one of the most inspiring for me as someone on the left part of the Brexit vote was that it was saying actually the political demands of people's engagement in society their sense of control over politics their democratic demands is paramount and that means for me that's a really exciting thing that means you have a populace that wants to grasp the nettle of change and make something about it I think the question that was asked about in the earlier round is very interesting because I think that Brexit has become even though the class is different today than it was in relation to other historical events like the Miner Strike in a very different context if you take what is happening in relation to you have a mass public vote of which large numbers of it are of working class I mean Labour's huge constituencies in the north that are working class areas that vote for Brexit and you have a parliament political establishment that is so viciously against that I mean 74% of MPs voted remain but currently the current state of parliament is that you have war in camps arguing over how best to scupper via a second referendum or a delay or a really you know bad deal that no one wants how best to scupper Brexit so you've got this for those of us who are watching at home it's a really clear distinction that says that there is us and there is them and it's them that are controlling it I think the really important thing to note is that almost immediately after the referendum result was announced that political demand was taken away from us and shut into the closed doors of Westminster I mean it's remarkable that 650 people have determined how this is going to happen for the last two and a half years it's unbelievable that they are having votes and amendments in parliament that is just directly going against what we voted for I debated Stella Creasy a Labour MP last night who got up on a podium and said we have to stop Brexit I mean that means we have to stop the Democratic vote so in terms of what that means for people censored themselves how you now it would be very hard pressed to find a person who would have any belief in politics and even an ordinary voter if they have voted for something that gets diminished and then elected people on manifesto pledges that promise that vote and that gets diminished what would you do other than there's two options make the streets in protest in which I hope people will do to make their Democratic demands realise or you never engage in politics again so either way it doesn't look good for the political establishment to go back on this we've already gone over time Bill you had a specific question there and Catherine I'll come to you as your very final okay well first of all I'll say the third alternative is you are asked to gain in a referendum so the reason why there will be hundreds of thousands which is not a do-over it's a giving the people a chance to vote I mean a do-over your view of democracy is vote once if it's a referendum if we have a second referendum it is a do-over it's not a do-over that's the point we're never going to agree on that we're never going to agree on that the point of democracy a representative government is that you have the chance to change your mind you are saying people should never once the vote happens until Brexit has happened any second referendum will remain on the ballot paper and the position of that first vote which is anti-democratic no it's a rethinking of that vote by the people so anyway I'll go on to the answer to your question the answer is it all depends on the policies that people operate I mean in other words there are too many variables to do this the absurdity of the scaremongering was that it was based on a 2030 projection which had to say other things equal these changes because nothing else will change these changes in Britain's status in the European Union will have the following effect on people's incomes it was a nonsense you can't do that everything else can change so the debate that we've that we've been having and that politics will have about what policies to follow whether on the left or on the right after Brexit or what will determine the answer to your question and unless you know the answer to the question about what policies will be offered I can't answer your question about unemployment let alone what is Don Maynard Keane's great reference to Mr Markett what's Mr Markett telling you by reference to Australia Mr Markett is always saying that sterling is more valuable if we stay in the European Union or have a soft Brexit and it's less valuable if we leave and Mr Markett's going to have to wait because we've run over time 30 seconds I think to round up and I think really to tie everything together this is about emotion the UK has always displayed a lack of emotional and psychological commitment to the EU project that is still the case that will continue to be the case in relation to Brexit and that also ties in with the arguments that we've discussed today about economic insecurity and inequality and austerity with regards to the second referendum we are then talking about whether that vote would be binary or non-binary and that is another big question that is going to face the UK government in your very immediate future well ahead of 2025 a hopelessly broad question to subject the panellists to I think they've done a great job in giving us a diverse range of views and coming over to do that I hope it is valuable I certainly would like to thank the panellists for coming and sharing their views and if you could