 Very good morning. It is Tuesday the 8th of October. Hope you are well Going to have a review of some updates on the ongoing trade war between the US and China ahead of top-level talks later this week Gonna have a look at Boris and Brexit. There was just some headlines that came out which have Put some downside pressure on the pound albeit in a fairly temporary nature Some German data this morning Samsung earnings overnight and then I look at the calendar for the rest of the day So that's what I'll cover on my side then Sam will come on and do the look at the charts from all technical perspective But first off before I go into the graphic. I'm just sharing with you there. Let's have a look at the charts overall this morning As you can see the center top chart is Cable so you just had a little bit of a leg glower This morning it was a course of the last half an hour or so Accentuated by a little bit of a spike in that wick you can see just a few moments ago move of just around 10 15 pips or so reiteration if anything from the UK government about the stance And we'll get into that in more details in reference to the credibility behind having a no deal obviously with that looming Brexit deadline at the end of the month But otherwise equity index futures in the US marginally Positive as I said, we'll look at some some graphics from yesterday Seemingly the market now taking that regular what we had seen Renewed lift at any signs of optimism of a deal between US and China market Markets just rally at that point and it was a little bit of a case yesterday Kudlow came out and talked about the fact that the administration in the US had begun studying US investor protections in China But the delisting Chinese companies traded on US to exchanges is not on the table If you remember that was one of the main stories that was moving the markets only about a week or so ago So that in combination with a few other things Leading to a bit of relief. I mean, let me just show you that graphic so you can see it Really here. You got the Kudlow comment two kind of green rectangles there showing the market lift China actually came out and said quite contradictory to what they said in the press This time yesterday when we were doing the briefing about the fact that there was limited signs of doing any type of deal a concession They were kind of making noises of the opposite and then markets kind of rallying again. So a little bit of a lift into what was then the latter part of Wall Street trade But going into the actual close. We did see a bit of a pullback albeit to just We've basically created a bit of a range if anything with pivot providing the downside support level in the in the spooze future And then we remain pretty mid that range at the moment European equities that's just a little lower. It's just broken through what was a fairly tame overnight Asia Pacific session As per usual a little bit of a run low on that break just targeting pivot Which was the lower bound of the price activity from yesterday's late US session Oil pretty quiet albeit minor positive up 37 cents Gold slight negative still sub 1500 at the moment Which is as I'm sure Sam will talk about a level of kind of near-term resistance on the upside Training down seven bucks at 1497 last so let's get stuck into a couple of these headlines then on The news perspective. This was the latest we've had overnight. So despite the seemingly positive comments and those developments I just discussed that saw out the end of yesterday's session Overnight the latest piece of information has been that the Trump administration has placed eight Chinese technology Large-scale firms on a US blacklist yesterday accusing them of being implicated in human rights violations against Muslim minorities in the country's far Western region of Xinjiang Think is the way that you say it The two or two of the companies involved include two large video surveillance companies In fact those two companies alone account for about One third of all of the global market video surveillance technology in the world It's obviously large companies the others quite a few of them are based around Market leading in the AI technology space in the Far East. So it's significant in that respect As you can see from the market so Not not a great deal of reaction I think a lot of this is because markets have become quite accustomed to the usual routine What happens at the moment is ahead of the high-level talks happening on Thursday and Friday There's kind of prep talks as the delegations arrive in Washington for these latest discussions So low-level talks happen now to set the ground for the for the big guns that come out The high senior ranking officials on Thursday and Friday and normally what you tend to see here is before the two Kind of sit around a table to renegotiate You get these kind of shots fired if you like and and this seemingly is this Repeat cycle of what we have been seeing through the entirety of the trade war dialogue between these two countries, so I think market fallout for the moment is contained interestingly one thing I was reading this morning was a Bloomberg article which was referencing a research note released from the Japanese bank Nomura yesterday who are basically looking and observing the the futures positioning That of hedge funds positioning in the market going into these talks and from a global macro hedge fund Perspective they appear to be building bullish positions in Asian equities ex-Japan before these US China trade talks and indicative that they're Relatively upbeat that there could be some kind of positive outcome To the discussions that are happening I mean this just gives you a bit of flavor for what that looks like the blue line is the global macro hedge fund exposure To Asian stocks ex-Japan and as you can see on the far right-hand side of the axis here You've had a significant spike here in the recent week or so So macro funds becoming more bullish on Asian stocks irrespective of the fact that the Chinese manufacturing PMI Is in contractually territory But if anything if you're looking at these numbers here it has stabilized if anything is moving further away from the initial low Point that we had right at the beginning of the year. So I guess maybe some of these had hedge fund Players in the market holding these more longer-term positions rather than trading the intraday perhaps looking at a bottoming out in this The significance of the economic impact on China in addition to the fact that ultimately in the longer term The trade war is going to be managed because both sides need it to be that way particularly on the US side with the domestic political kind of milestones with the 2020 push coming next year Otherwise other than that I would say a kind of word of warning is to remain a little bit agile I guess to the fact that there's probably likely to be more Trump tweets and things like that Rumors in various press articles being leaked. This is quite typical fashion as I said going into these these top-level talks. So Like what we saw yesterday, I mean the market seemingly still has the ability to react to these headlines in a fairly aggressive way so Again, I just think keeping a good ear open to the squawk throughout the sessions going into the end of the week I think it's probably the suit thing to do if you're going to be sitting trading intraday All right moving over to to brexit As I said, we've had a bit of a dip in the pound this morning, but before I get to that comment This is the latest. There's a magazine the spectator Publishes a message from an unnamed government official supposedly part of the government thinking and Boris Johnson is said to be preparing for Brexit talks to collapse and The magazine speculating that the Prime Minister will blame Parliament and Ireland and the EU So I think that that's absolutely not surprising And the fact that you've had a senior Downing Street source come out this morning and say unless the EU Compromises and does a brexit deal shortly then the UK will leave the EU without a deal So again, that's not Downing Street direct. That's a source, but we know that that's probably come from people like Dominic Cummings in particular just looking to position Boris Johnson and the Conservative government and for the inevitability that this Ben Bill From everything that I've read it seems that With all the legal minds that have reviewed that particular piece of legislation that it's almost impossible to get around meaning then that Boris Inevitably will have to write a letter to Brussels to ask for an extension on the 19th now What that means then is that obviously as we've discussed before he's put such emphasis on Do or die and so on on the fact of getting a deal done So all of this including that source comment this morning including this spectator piece Which I think is absolutely Being pushed internally by the government to drip it into the press so that both Europe and more importantly The public are aware that as far as Boris is concerned He is doing the will of the people He's trying his utmost to get a deal done and it is Parliament that is blocking him All of this is gearing up as we've said before for a general election the people versus Parliament And so absolutely nothing changes in my mind. I still Firmly believe that we're heading down that way And if anything I feel even stronger giving that Downing Street source and so on because there's there isn't Apparently any legal wiggle room for him to get out of the fact that he's gonna have to delay Brexit So now it's about how do you leverage this situation away from them? What you've committed to but using that almost as a strength to just further Kind of hit home the belief that it's the MPs that are stopping the Democratic vote. So again And What does this mean for the pound in the short term? Well, I mean you've only got to look at the pound this morning to see the reaction To that Downing Street source. I don't think I'm the only one of this particular view I think this is the market overall I mean look there the spike that happened was only about 10 pips and we've already recovered Any of that little grind lower that we've just had so Everyone knows this the case that this is what Boris is up to It's unsurprising from a markets point of view again, this is all kind of public perception. He's trying to manage gearing up for that election Goldman Sachs they've released their latest update They've said percentage wise that they still believe the most likely outcome is for the UK and EU to agree on a deal before October 31st, so they're looking at 60% For that now they're looking at I'll share the the link so you can have a read But they're looking about this whole latest plan that Boris put forth about a week or so ago and how it's kind of the best of both worlds of trying to get a Compromise for the solution around this Irish border issue and that this is the closest that we've been so far to potentially getting some kind of Compromise so Goldman's a little bit of an outlier. I'd say in that sense putting a 60% Probability on that as far as the timeline is concerned Remember there's the kind of self-imposed deadline from Ireland the EU including Macron It's one of the key players in the European side But then also from Boris Johnson is that if he's going to get this deal done it's got to happen by basically Friday And so you're probably gonna see a bit of a pickup potentially in volatility In the pound as we go through the latter part of the week And if anything I still think that there is if I was going to pick a side room for a relief rally Fundamentally on the confirmation of the delay happening now That's not because Brexit's gone through some evolution and game-changing factor. This is purely The fact that the cliff-edge scenario of that no-deal disorderly Brexit has been removed at least for the time being Okay Let's have a look at a few other things. We had some German data this morning Markets have really brushed over this And I think that's likely due to the the fact but I mean if you look at this data set for industrial production in Germany It does tend to be a little bit all over the place Albeit we had a positive surprise this morning at point three percent expectations were For a point one percent fall and then the other thing overnight that could Reverberate across some of the other chip makers both this morning and when the US come in and particularly in the tech sector is The Korean firm Samsung they've beaten forecast with a 56% fall in operating profit now That actually sounds a little bit counter-intuitive doesn't it they've beaten expectations Because they had a 56% fall and they're operating profit. That's actually good news if you can believe it The reason chiefly behind there behind this and the reaction in their shares overnight is because low chip prices are weighing on third-quarter guidance But analysts have interpreted the information that they've leased overnight as reckoning the worst is now passed for the sector So this could have repercussions for the the broader market in terms of that specific Chip-making sector later when the US opens so worth just bearing that in mind for the nizy open later on this afternoon The other thing is overall I would say markets so far have been relatively Quiet overall one thing I just wanted to remind you was that there's a couple things obviously that are big happening in the latter part Of the week the biggest of course being The resumption of those trade talks then you've also got US CPI which is probably one of the main economic data points this week And that's on Thursday, and you've got the FMC minutes on Wednesday night. So, you know if you were thinking About this whole week As a whole the composition of where the kind of ebb and flow might come as we go through the five trading days That comprise the week then I would say it definitely is going to be back-ended In that respect. So I think just a little bit of Patience not letting frustration kind of come in if you are trading, you know kind of throughout the intraday session There's definitely going to be plenty of opportunity. I feel to come if there's any you know It's a schedule and fundamental catalyst or anything to go by Okay, so for today's session just for the calendar What have we got? We just skipping ahead it's fairly quiet now for the rest of the morning. I got ECB's lane speaking with another More newly appointed Degoss speaking Later at 1030 Bank of England's 10 Ray Rose also taking part taking in that panel discussion Feds Evans later on this evening feds pow also speaks But it's a little bit of a generic kind of speech of view from the Fed wouldn't anticipate much in terms of real clarity Updates on the economic situation or all kind of forward guidance in that respect But always be aware power 730 Kashkari the biggest dove Talking at a town hall event later on this evening after the US close from a data point of view The main thing for this afternoon is the PPI numbers coming out of the US And you got the API infantry's later this evening, but overall relatively quiet. So still keeping it here to the ground obviously for Updates on the trade discussions is probably going to be one of the key things to bear in mind And then obviously the technical setup will be increasingly important with the kind of the lack of Calendar and significant events upcoming. All right. That's it for me Handles of Sam and I wish you a good day ahead. Thanks very much guys Hey guys, hello We're all doing well as salmon again and look at the the charts longer term and it's all still quite contained I think the the data calendar from yesterday was Relatively quiet, so it's not the biggest surprise in the world We we completed that gap into the afternoon See coming down to that the pivot just after cash open a good opportunity to have got long We didn't really Offer much insight from the close yesterday to where we're going to finish today So it's the same sort of levels of interest really can we you know for the balls want to see you know Confirm break really above this whole zone We had a couple attempts yesterday at trying to really break above it and we just couldn't couldn't couldn't get above But it's not like we broke but below the below the afternoon and the day and that pivot So 20 point zone that we talked about yesterday I probably would say is still in play and really waiting for a confirmed break lower It's going to be the way to play that I would would suggest for the S&P and the NASDAQ and And our likewise you can just see that we did at one point Into the afternoon into the back end of the session get above what was the previous load the first however again? Like the S&P that pivot holding firm to the downside for the for the whole day So the US equities you have your key levels I would say in play there the pound we had a that trend line on from the the previous days and that did however that did break and any I would say move to the upside today Just keep an eye on that just keep an eye on that trend that broke Over Say pretty more seven o'clock around there That's something I would would have marked up and and also by the time that could potentially push That trend line. We also had from the top Could well come into play around there as well as zooming in to see at the moment if that was to come in now I mean admittedly you'd have to get a spike there for that to happen. There's no data at 9 30 Then you know that would be coming in around the one twenty three forty two Also, but yeah, not the biggest move in the world to the downside failure here to make a and confirm a break below the The low of the third. So, you know keep an eye on of course those previous lows. We saw some really good opportunities yesterday with Gold of the the classics of the low of the day and again You've seen the pound do something similar in it breaks and low good areas for one two three break come back Good air resistance and we come back down. So yeah a bit fundamental reason But also the technicals nicely in play there the euro Had a go at trying to get back up to that key level Of Thursday and Friday's high just didn't want to really have a proper test of it And the R1 was in the mix there as well That's still the important level one ten fifty five give or take a few ticks to the upside or downside That's your zone and that will be You know a key level if it was to break to the upside as we've also got a trend line coming from Those highs that reside around the same sort of area to the downside I mean you could just argue this is now in a bit of a zone isn't it Thursday Friday low yesterday's low I mean today's low. I should say all really contained around one ten ten. So good range bound market for euro. I Personally probably would wait for a break either way You know favoring probably the downside just because I do still think the dollar is overall going to be stronger If you can get it higher fantastic But worth keeping an eye on that range in euro oil just catching my at the moment just Trickling lower and if we have a bit of a trend line on from the low of yesterday evening I mean, it's not amazing actually to be fair Let's have a look and see if it comes into play around this one from this morning a bit better But to be honest, you know worth keeping an eye on this this move here in all because you've got the similar Sort of price action that we saw in the pound earlier and gold Yes, then you you get this solid base of support and then these these levels break. So worth having you know these Previous lows that's marked up and an area of interest. I guess looking also around 53 dollars Now as an area of resistance should we come back oil? Yes, they did push higher into the morning and then afternoon continued before Falling back down into the evening 52-24 is the level I've got marked up on my charts not just because of the s1 But also you've got the lows from Friday and then the second as well. It's quite a key area I know we'd have to get through yesterday's double bottom for us to get there 52 58 But I'd just like the look of a you know key level around 52 24 also to the upside. I know we broke through it as well 5335 the high that we had back from Friday We had some nice practice action around there yesterday So as a range goes I thought oh, I'll be looking for it to be contained within here Or you know a significant move either direction if it was to break to the upside or the downside Quick look over at gold and we'll go through those trades from yesterday as they were just you know really really nice You had obviously here you see it still marked up the blow of the day came back to find resistance once and twice Before continuing lower there We also had a couple of trend line breaks as well But before that you can see again. What was the load they came back and found resistance again before a push down to yesterday's Well, what would have been where we're saying yesterday yesterday's loads of Friday's low good area of support really nice Just price action all over for gold Which it can't always be said to be the case That's some really nice opportunities there where we've now trading is that very important 1492 93 level depending with where you take It of course and you can just see the significance whenever we come to this level It's important. That's your line in the sand to to be aware of you get a close Below there then we can start looking back down towards 1480 and of course then the low of October to the upside Well those previous lows from yesterday that which offered good levels to get short on breaks or long from support So 1501 1506 1510 if you want to say as well They're gonna be key levels of resistance as well worth keeping an eye as well with gold and Any market that does just drift lower like this is if we can like we've got now get this one two three tests of The trend and then you know then suddenly you get a really big push above that trend line What suddenly looked a good area to go short at 1501 now doesn't look as good Just because the speed of that break of that trend However, of course, you still got a bit of time before we confirm this is a real strong resistance But it's just interesting to see initially on that first test we're finding some resistance on there The Dax just drifting lower coming in down to the pivot So of course for us X this is keep an eye on that and then actually around this Zone if you like I would say it's pretty significant just having a look at yesterday as well You've got a high around there You've also got the Friday finish of the day that high point and also some nice price action from the second So again, can we confirm a break below here? You've also could argue we are now on the wrong side of a few of these Trends from the lows of the month, but this one here is somewhere. I would be keeping an eye on is the Well, first of all if we can break the pivot below But also you've got the the round number 12,000 potentially on the third test of this trend nine where we've got the low the third and the fourth and of course potentially today We've also then got some support from the seventh as well So as an area perhaps that it would be drawn towards 12,000 for me looks pretty key as usual any questions, of course, please do let us know I've been trading live or on YouTube But I hope you all have a good trading day stocks just coming down a touch The the dollar relatively fat flat the pound Still below that trend line to keep a close eye on that euro range bound As well and gold just coming up to what was a really key level yesterday, but keep an eye on that trend