 Welcome to Think Tech of Hawaii, Asian Reveal. I'm Johnson Choi, the host. Today we are in a trip. We have a father and son team going to talk about Myanmar opportunity and challenge. First I'd like to introduce the father Michael Antron from the University of Hawaii and the son Mike Tree Antron from the National University of Singapore visiting the father with the family for a month. Before I hand the microphone over to the father and son team, I'd like to talk a little bit about Myanmar and how Myanmar might fit in the China's one bell, one row, and especially the recent, not the recent, you know, lately there's a documentary by a British producer it's called The Coming War in China. They talk about basically how the American military base are surrounding China and how China is using the one bell, one row and also try to break the containment and Myanmar may be fitting to that formula. Try to connect in the real world and also try to connect in the ceiling using the one bell, one row. So I'm going to pass a question to Michael. He will give us a little bit of history about Myanmar, a family was called Burma. Michael? Well first of all, thanks for having me on the show. I don't like to use the term Burma anymore, it's a matter of habit. It's a colonial term and what Muhammad Ali used to call a slave term for his name, he said I'm not cash slave, I'm Muhammad Ali. So I think we should respect what the Burmese people want to call the country, which is Myanmar. Okay. Actually there's a word that follows it, because Myanmar is an adjective not a noun, but you know the UN and everybody else recognizes it except for the US and a couple of nations. The long the history with China goes way back at least to the sway and tongue if not if not earlier and they've always had a good contacts trade as well as diplomatic as well as political relations, cultural relations too and Myanmar used to see China as the big brother and used to see China the north as the front door of Myanmar rather than the back door. The West came in through the back door and they thought that was the front door so the Myanmar people were looking the other way and they said oh these Myanmar people they look the other way and so there must be xenophobic and inside looking and not outward looking but actually it's because the West came into the back door, they weren't looking backwards, they were looking forward and for a long time China was the front door and still I think in my opinion anyway I think it still is in many ways the front door it's certainly its closest neighbor and it's certainly a strong neighbor economically and politically now and it has been throughout the tongue and the sway and the Ming too, less the Ming but more the tongue dynasties and it has been a continuous relationship flow of goods, flow of people, flow of cultural things, religion even in some ways architecture, art and many other things. For one time Burma was a colony right? Burma yes it was called it was a colony under the British, the British colony right British colony and that's when the term Burma became to be used and it was so it's a colonial term it's a it's a British term there's no ur sound in in Burmese and there's no Burma if you ask an ordinary guy in Burma who doesn't speak English he won't say Burma he'll say Myanmar because the word doesn't exist in the Burmese language or in any of the indigenous languages it's only is known as Myanmar in the country by the indigenous groups as well as by the Burmese speakers. So the former Burma was a British colony just like India just like Singapore just like Hong Kong and many other places and how does you know some of those places like Singapore, Hong Kong or you know in some way in India we turn out quite okay after the British left and what happened to Burma or Myanmar today? Well for one thing Myanmar was in rule for 200-300 years like India was we had a lot of time for the British to have the impact felt all the Philippines with Americans all with Malaysia and Singapore it was only about 70 years of British rule and then it was taken piecemeal fashion and they came across a very powerful civilization a very powerful kingdom so there was a lot of resistance and part of the problems at independence was because of this resistance is not just you know rolling over and playing dead when the British came and it was it was quite antagonistic and it the way to resolve decolonization has a has a lot to play with it and the decolonization created a civil war and this is actually his period of study my period of study goes before that and the decolonization created a lot of problems that say Singapore and Malaysia didn't go through the same kind of decolonization or Vietnam same kind of decolonization that Myanmar and Vietnam and Cambodia went through it's much easier for Malaysia and Singapore in fact I would argue that Singapore didn't have a decolonization period so it matters what happened at decolonization after World War II so what kind of role China has played historically with you know the Myanmar it's been it's been our political it's tried in the Yuan dynasty the Mongol dynasty it it tried to assert its power but the Mongols were defeated by the Burmese three times the Chinese don't like to admit it but it's in the Yuan sources it's in there the Ming also put some assertions on military and political relations and assertions on on Myanmar but it was more cordial in the in the Ming period in fact I'm doing a book right on the Ming period right now Myanmar and during the Ming period the Qing had less of it and influence the Republican period the Mao Zedong's era had influence on on on Myanmar particularly the system of state they look to China as a model in many ways but of course you know Myanmar is a very very devoutly Buddhist state so you can only do so much in that in that political relationship it doesn't jive with the religious aspects and there's the language differences politically diplomatically militarily culturally dressed food so on you can see Chinese and Myanmar relations interact throughout the centuries so a lot of those relationships are based on like trade trade to trade culture everything else and it's been both it's been a mixed picture both a positive type of relationship as well as a negative one they have been wars between the two places but and you win some you lose some and in some cases the Ming did lose I think three times and in some cases the Qing lost once but the Mongols invaded Myanmar quite deeply but they didn't win entirely either well maybe we fast forward to a little more modern history and then maybe for some people that may not know where Myanmar is you know as a member is stuck between Laos Thailand Bangladesh and China so they border quite a few nations and and I guess you know this is the probably the picture boy or picture girl of the of the West and the John of art of Myanmar and I guess when was the democratic election in Myanmar there's been several several elections the last one was kind of well she she's joined in 2012 were a bi-election which filed the 2010 election so she was able to join the government then but she was elected into her position now in 2015 where her party nationally for democracy swept the elections I see and and and there's a lot of you know because in America you basically just hear what the Western media say and your time the CNN and Wilson Post and sometimes you read one you read them all the same and I was told of the perspective of the age of the Western world look at unsung maybe a slightly different from how the people look at her of how the Asian nations you know look at her how why is there a discrepancy somehow well her image has changed over the years I mean during the time when the military government was still implementing its so-called roadmap to democracy which it was implemented in about 2003 or so there was a very much an antagonistic relationship between the West and me ma they imposed economic sanctions which of course meant that the engagements with me I wasn't very person very close but Asian countries such as China and ASEAN nations in India did engage so during this time I'm so she as a political opposition leader was really the face of me a ma she was seen to be in a sense representing the me a ma people so just as the me a ma people were being in a sense held down by a military government so too was she also under house arrest so this type of symbolic relationship was held by most of the Western media because it was a very strong essentially and to me a ma perspective on the country and its political landscape but as changes start occurring within the country as the military's plan to implement a new constitution and a new government started to take place this started to change the West's perception of her as well she became part of the government if it wasn't so clear-cut anymore which side in a sense that she belonged to now as a leader she has to take the very difficult position of leading a country through this transition from essentially a socialist economy to much more market-oriented one and this is where the challenge lies for her and this is also where her perception from the outside has also changed folks are now starting to question her government's ability to manage the investment the infrastructural development and the capacity building that has been so so very much needed within the country she has also been criticized about her policies concerning migrant communities have been coming in and coming through me a mind leaving me a the western part of the country in your kind state these challenges of course are part of long-term processes and dynamics that have challenged most leaderships within the country and so part of the changes in her perception have to do with changes from the outside and how people perceive her right now they're starting to question her her image as this beacon of liberal democracy they're starting to wonder whether she's able to uphold these principles and whether her government is going to be able to meet the types of expectations that many of her voters expected when she came to office some which actually say because mother Sue is in government all our problems are solved well obviously if you you know if you've seen the challenges that have been happening in the country this is obviously going to take much more than just electing one person into government I guess you know sometimes you as an opposition party or you are the single voice to oppose the what we call it the people in power of course when you are not in the position to do anything it's easy to criticize and during our discussion before our meeting you know and Taiwan is a very good example you know the current DPP sweared into power because they criticized KMT could not do anything and my angel of course lost you know the KMT lost the presidency now she's been put in the position trying to run the country and she runs to run all kind of problem because now you cannot criticize anymore you have to do something you have to perform right and she's very inexperienced well okay so you also mentioned that she we want to be the like a minister of five different department and it took people by surprise when she part of this has to do with the Constitution that prohibits her from being president and so to get around this and to in negotiation with the incumbent political part of the USDP as well as the military they found perhaps what probably was the best route was to enable her to create a position which calls called state counselor which essentially allowed her to be above the president which was surprised people because here is a leader supposedly espousing democratic views and she is creating a position that perhaps sounded a bit undemocratic and in addition she initially mentioned that and said she would be overseeing five key portfolios of government and in a place like Myanmar where institutions very weak and each of these portfolios whether it's education ethnic affairs and so on are to require a lot of attention to take five different portfolios which is the equivalent of running five different departments like of education of transport and so forth would seem a bit ambitious for anybody to take over so this rubbed some people the wrong way and also raised questions as to whether she actually has the ability to actually see in realistic terms the challenges that are facing the country it's almost like Donald Trump want to be the secretary of state head of department of commerce right exactly exactly and her children taking over the rest of the departments so so this so this also was a contributing factor to questioning her image before as an activist it's easy to speak about things and abstract ideological terms but in real politics you have to have the ability to actually really have administrative skills to run a government and she was facing to be fair enormous challenges she's facing basically a pre-war or post-war economy that's had very little economic development capacity is very poor and you were dealing with a population that's that has potential but it also required the type of technical training that you need to develop an infrastructure so she's facing all these challenges plus internal political division and factionalism so whether it was her or whether it was a different leader they'd be facing a massive challenge so change is not going to happen overnight okay we are going to a commercial right now so we'll be back in a minute hello I'm Marianne Sasaki welcome to think tech Hawaii where some of the most interesting conversations in Honolulu go on I have a show on Wednesdays from one to two called life in the law where we discuss legal issues politics governmental topics and a whole host of issues I hope you'll join me I'm Jay Fidel and I'm the host of research in Manoa Mondays from 12 to 1 on thinktecawaii.com take a look at us and learn about geophysics learn about planetology learn about the ocean and earth sciences at UH Manoa you'll really enjoy it so come around we'll see you then hi I'm Donna Blanchard I'm the host of center stage here on think tech this show is so very dear to my heart we talk with artists of various different ill care about the process that they go through for their art so we talk about what they're doing why they are doing it how they do it and it's a show that is inspiring this is what I hear from people all the time and a show that will teach you something sometimes something about yourself I hope you'll join us the show is center stage it's on think tech every Wednesday at 2 o'clock we'll see then welcome back to think that how I Asian reveal I'm Johnson Choi the host okay before we go into a break we're talking about you know unsung through kids current challenge you know from a opposition leader without the power basically just critic criticizing the people in power now she seems of the power but she has a challenge to deliver what she tried criticize the pride government and she tried to some Michael you can yet give us some real point from your perspective yeah if you if you think of the enormous challenges that might be has talked about dealing with the whole country and you think about a department that I used to be chair of which is small department age the same sort of problems can exist and it's even five years isn't enough to settle those can you imagine being head of five industries trying to solve all those problems and that would give you an idea of how it's far more difficult to be sitting in the position of chair and find easier to be a critic sitting in the rest of the audience as you suggested and I know her personally because we were in Kyoto together and our families were there to get that children played with each other and she had always been very very authoritarian personally although out of a month came democracy her personal character was one of being an authoritarian no criticism very thin skin and and like just like her father the father of the modern Burma was very much authoritarian authoritarian too and so she was essentially replacing trying although she spoke of democracy and the West went along with her she was essentially replacing one authoritarian government with another authority in government so if you want to replace the guy she's trying to overthrow she's just as authority as they are so yeah it's far easier to be a critic than to be a doer of things and move things and she has very very little if no experience in governance itself whereas the party that she was trying to overthrow the USDP had quite a few decades of experience in infrastructure development quelling rebellions law and order and all that stuff they were not good economists but they could at least provide social order which is what I think most of the people want they want not to have to fight every day or have bombs dropped on them every day they rather have social stability they want to be able to go in the countryside without the trains been blown up by the insurgents all the time that sort of stuff she had no experience in that whatsoever she was just a let's say amateur when it comes to governing so so a lot of government they came to power you know you pay himself or herself doesn't have to experience a lot of time they what they call they have advices and since she was the poster girl for the Western nations I mean doesn't American or the British will be a volunteer in some of their service and well she's also very stubborn personally she doesn't like advice and might we can speak more of that with regard to her own party she has advises in her own party but she doesn't necessarily listen to them well it listen it's important to remember that the start of the NLD which came in 1988 was led not actually by her but former generals who were purged by a different generation of generals so the NLD was actually being run by another military group so you have and she was just an underling but she rose to leadership she does have a core group of folks that are part of the executive committee of the National League for Democracy but that core group has aged and they haven't brought any new blood into that party and that's been a bone of contention for many of the NLD younger members there was a convention in 2013 a national Congress to vote for who should be coming in the executive committee very few if not any were allowed to come into the into the internal committee and there has been dissension within the National League of Democracy as well during the 2010 elections a group a more moderate group who wanted to engage the process that was established by the military broke off and said we want to take part in the elections her group which were mainly the hardliners said no we don't want to so eventually this group has come over and become part of this of the process but there is still this internal dissension amongst the groups and and politicians now especially provincial leaders have suggested that they may break off and form a new political party to contest the next elections coming forth and that's actually at the heart of the real problem from Yama is often the unity there's a lot political parties tend to factionalize and break away and so when you need to focus on transitions to build an infrastructure which requires years to implement this political turmoil this factionalism in infighting creates obstacles for that smooth transition so part of the biggest challenge for economic development and political development the country is this an internal infighting which is happening even within her own so a strong government be more useful because a lot of time the western countries always oversell the term democracy I mean as you find out from middle years even to Asia if you look at Taiwan which are of solidarity I mean it is their fist fight in the council in the Legislature Council I mean they're fighting and punching each other and and everything is on a standstill everything is you know they don't focus on economy anymore they just focus on weapon the power yeah I think I think especially at this moment of transition when you're transitioning away from a civil war economic change as well as political change you need to have a stable government one that is able to also look for long-term planning at this stage is not clear whether this particular administration has those priorities in mind whereas other at the current opposition party USDP and other political parties that are also part of the mix not just between two parties are several political parties these folks have to be able to demonstrate much more long-term thinking a key problem that we haven't heard about with the NLD it's about succession what happens when Dal Soushi retires and and that that executive committee who is going to come up behind them what are their plans what are what do they see as the the next 20 years of economic development we haven't heard any of these types of things and that's where the real risk comes in about the future and the other thing is you asked about democracy as this solve all things like a magic yeah magic one you wave it and everything's going to be hunky-dory but is what we tend to forget about what Myanmar is that is less ideological really than bread and butter issues and if those are solved first then the ideology can follow but we have the crime turned around the hospital for the crime or the hospital for the horse of where they want the ideology first and not the practical stuff the economic development of access to clean drinking water education you know infant mortality rates all those kind of things that have to happen first I think and and succession of course is ideological in a sense you have to have a constitutional statement on what the succession is about but I think much of the problems that the rest the West didn't see they just saw the ideology democracy democracy democracy is that these most of these conflicts and these facts and so on are bread and butter issues they're like a lot of even in the United States it will murder the time when the American economy was good like during the Clinton time you know when he do a lot of stupid things in the White House nobody care right when you come is bad and everybody start you know finding someone to bring typically it's a government so maybe we sidestep the politics in Myanmar because that is a long-term things that you're not going to solve in the next two years or maybe longer with the China focusing on the one-by-one road and try to bring prosperity basically to do they don't try doesn't talk about democracy they basically how we can improve the life of the people I mean the the the the basic people you know to bring in more trade more business like bring the real to to have the good can be transport around the Asian Europe how do you see if that China formula become successful in the next five years would that help your mom absolutely I mean economic development is key to Myanmar's future prosperity and the Chinese have been investing you know 200 billion since 1980 as opposed to 200 million that the US has invested I mean even the UK has invested four billion you know into into Myanmar since since 1980. Even Vietnam has invested more than the US. So I mean in terms of the economic strategy of the Chinese it's it's very conducive to the types of priorities that Myanmar has they have they need infrastructural development they need capacity training I mean they and they need to have the resource it's developers but we have to bear in mind though that a lot of this incoming investment is also lubricating the differences amongst the different factions so money money lubricates these divisions as does a political system such as democracy it highlights and amplifies these these differences so how the Myanmar government is able to manage this is going to be key to whether this type of strategy by the Chinese is successful or not I think in the long run by in promoting development over you know politics that's that's that will be reset received probably more easily by local governments then would say political ideology and so forth as often coming from the West we have a 15 second you want to add to my tree have to say before we end the program nothing much except I'd like to reiterate that this what I used to call democracy jihad is not going to work okay it hasn't worked okay amen okay my tree thank you for coming thank you for having us thank you for watching my soul this is my last show for 2016 hopefully to see you again in the near future aloha aloha