 Let's get over to our mammoth to Tim board as we do every Tuesday and Thursday, and don't forget folks You can reach Tim every trading day at odd or D hyphen oracle calm. It's got a great newsletter That's odd hyphen oracle calm Tim or what's going on brother? Well, did you get all my charts? I have all your charts man. I do all right there Did you get I said one kind of late? Yep? I have that one good All right We can start We're gonna look at the bigger picture again And probably people are getting tired of looking at this, but you got to remember what the The promise of the big trend is a bigger trend is and that the first chart is the summation dex We gone over this yeah a few times just the reminders all this they'll be quick We Go over these we want to go over these periods. Yeah Yeah, so yeah the top windows summation dex and In that cell you have to have a buying or selling climax Then within two months after I have a buying climax or thereabouts and we had selling climax on October 27th of last year so a couple three months ago We hit minus 800 and something and we rallied to plus 1,000 on December 27th And previous times that happened normally the next 12 months or even longer sometimes that promises a bull market so That's just one indicator So if in a chart to that's quite that's quite an indicator though, right Tim I mean, you know for long-term perspective folks, okay? This is something you want to keep your head wrapped around okay, particularly in a market that we have you know Because it's a powerful market. Okay, so I'm ready. I'm on number two now. Yes Yeah, so so number one so it has a real high probability matter of fact the chart number one that goes back to 2007 and every time it reached below minus 700 and rally to a plus 1,000 You know the market had an uptrend, you know sometimes three four years But you know promises a good 12 months next year looks or this year. Yes pretty good So for the chart to that's kind of a review again the bottom window is the SPX VIX ratio, okay, and And the top this is a monthly time frame. I think Yeah, this is a monthly time frame and So the top one or the top window is is the VIX next window down is the SPX and the bottom window is the SPX VIX ratio, right and normally At tops you get you get the SB going higher and the SPX VIX ratio going Making lower highs as the bearish divergence and right now we don't have a bearish divergence We've got both the SPX VIX ratio going higher highs and the SPX ratio Going higher so that goes well for the intermediate term So it looks good. I think there's a head and shoulders bottom going on If it is they have an upside target around 570 and that's approximately At least double digits higher than where we are right now So not every week's gonna be an up week, but It looks promising So we'll go to chart three work and now we're going down to the smaller time frame Okay, you look at the bigger time frames and it all looks pretty good So you go down to the smaller time frames and this is a weekly chart of the Middle window is the SPX SPX and the window below that is the SPX VIX ratio on a weekly time frame Okay, back at the 2022 top you got the SPX making higher highs that's that kind of pink area and the ratio making lower highs Yeah, and now in the current time frame You got the SPX making higher highs and you got the ratios making higher highs and in the midterm Looks pretty good right and folks remember this. Okay, this program's archive So it happened to be in the car right now driving to work driving home whatever, you know As Tim did some beautiful shots out here So remember that you can just pick up the show anytime when you get home But you want to look at this because it's so clear, you know because Tim's been on now for seven or eight months Okay, and it's so clear that when you saw the ratio in July Turning down versus what we have now you can see as Tim is explained that the SPX is going higher and The SPX VIX ratio is going higher. Okay, which is so cool Tim man This is kind of this is really cool that on one shot. You can see both the differences. You know what I mean? Yeah, yeah, you go back and so yeah, I went back all the way as far as I could you know back 1980s back to you know Yeah, and so it's works over time. So let's go to the next chart chart number four okay, and it's just kind of look at the short term here and This is you know, this is Me to be real concerned. Yeah, maybe yeah, but right now the bottom window is the SPX This is daily what's going on So this narrows all the way down to the chart. So the SP right now is going higher highs and The ratio which is the next window up is actually making lower highs. Okay, you got a load of divergence here Yeah, and actually over time I found out Sometimes these diverges just go away and and so I'm kind of watching here I got long last week to forget what day I got long, but I'm long the market still. Yeah, I got long on January 18th. So it was last week and And so I I see in the ratio making lower highs, but if you look today, you know The market is up as midge barely. It's almost unchanged, but the VIX right now is making lower lows So that buys me another day here of a chance that the SMB's May make a higher high and that ratio may get back to the previous high It's exactly don't know if it will or not, but if it does That would buy me more time to the upsides. So I'm thinking that's what's going to happen here I think even though we got a daily virgins, yeah That divergence may go away before the week is out. No I bring this up and show them, you know that VIX folks, okay? Is it 12.71 right now? So and that what's so cool about when you're listening to what Tim is saying here it's really cool when you understand the ratios that he's talking about because It it's gonna buy him another day. Yeah, that's what it really comes out to which is You know, it's so cool Tim is that you because as you project forward. It's like, okay I see what's happening out here today, and you know, you get that coming out after the close You know, I mean we're in earning season now. So this good is gonna be a lot of numbers coming out for sure Yeah, but that's uh, but you know, it'd be So if tomorrow is down to say yes, Peter flat up tomorrow again, that's what it is Yeah, or even down a little bit and the VIX is down Again, that would buy me another day. So I don't know so we'll see, you know, maybe I'm out of this trade You know the week Maybe I'm not but you know, this is how I'm looking at the market. So it's Baby You know before always kind of get short on the trigger, you know and and but really the money is the money's really made If you can catch a trend and sometimes your friends are kind of hard to catch But your patient and you kind of wait through it You know trends where you make your money. You know, and this market may be trending here I'm not sure. No, I get it. They're right there folks. Tim and I are coming right back Well back to the same way Tom or Brian folks. Do you appreciate your route and problem without it? We have that out right now straight down 108. That's like is up 46 as the peas up nine and a half Okay, Tim. Where would you like me to go on these shots? All right, go to go chart number five. Okay, and Churchill this is not kind of a long-term chart goes back to look like mid 2017 I think you're somewhere in there, but you know the bottom window is a 10-day average of the trend the next one up is the 21-day average and Third window up from the bottom to six three-day average Last week all through those all three of those trend Timeframes got in bullish territory and what's important is the six to three day now six three days basically a month of trading Yes, and when that turns bullish, you know, and he's only get above 1.10 You're looking at least an immediate term low You know, this is a lot of times again last, you know a long time the blue areas on the chart Or all of times when the the six three-day trend got above 1.2 so a trend reading above one point or yeah one 1.2 shows panic in the market and the more panic the longer time you have panic in the market Usually the longer the rally phase. So when you get a trend reading on the six three day above 1.1 It shows basically a whole month of panic even though the market really didn't decline any per se It kind of went sideways more or less People were panicking and panic is is kind of the fuel for the market. I guess you might say You don't have any panic at a bottom. It's never a bottom Well, we'll look at it. I mean, this is quite a statistic when we're looking at the 60 day 63 days trend. I mean, that's three trade months. We have it's 21 trading days a month, right? Yeah, right. Okay. Yeah, you're right. Three day. Yeah. Yeah, it's only one day is a month Yeah, the six three days is basically three months. So you talk about People worried the whole way up Yeah, yeah, you're right. That's exactly what it said. They were they were worried all the way up You know, but for a while they got bullish, you know last July at that top, you know Because the six three day trend was hovering around various levels Then the mark went down then they're all said the mark went up and people got scared They sold into the rally and that's bullish So if you got the market going up and you got that trend going up same time, then that rally is going to continue Okay, yeah, so anyhow this is so there's three months of panic It's really a bode well for the for the year, you know, it kind of supports the summation index kind of supports the Yeah, you know This there's no doubt that if you look at the last 63 days folks, okay That's climbing the wall of worry whoever, you know, coined that term years ago, but that that was Joe Granville coined that term was it Wow, okay. Yeah, Joey granted Granville So Anyhow, yeah, you really want a wall worry if you got everybody green week with the mark going up and the trends They attend a trend down around point a or even lower. Yeah, that's usually a disaster for the market Okay, so when he's when he said the wall of worry, you know, I put it in terms where you can actually see it And that's the trend reading exactly. So pretty cool. Yeah, so yeah So that's so when they see a wall worry now You can actually go to an indicator and look at it if there is indeed a wall worrying says somebody just say what? You know Yeah, you can put you can put it on paper and look at it So, yeah, that would you have a wall worry here? So could this be a trend going? Yeah, that's a possibility. There's one reason why I'm kind of pushing this trade a little bit Right, you know, let's see if the VIX desk go to a lower low here in the next several days But we got you know, we got the 10 day the 21 day and a three month trend readings all in bullish territory So and that's kind of a sign of a trend. So we'll see if that works out or not I don't know if it will or not, but We go to a chart six, okay Actually the bottom window we were talking you and I were talking and we were talking about the two-day trend Why keep a track of the two-day trend and and before is always around for and but that Two-day trend sometimes back in it to 2008 decline It was around five you need a two-day trend around five to get a bottom going in okay And and and different markets is slow changing indicator Yes, it doesn't like doesn't switch from one day to the next but right now we had a two-day trend Last week matter of fact the day of the low We had a two-day trip a two-day trend of last week and Al the day of the low which is January 17th With 3.5 to right I think it was yep And so I drew a line across the deal and actually around 3.5 really works better I mean or does work But if you get it 3.5, which is 1.75 times 2 and that'll also work And that's the only reason I stayed out of that trade because we didn't have a two-day trend around 4 turns out If you go back over the last couple of years one point or three or three point 3.5 works good, so Just kind of want to point that out It won't have some two-day trends this year that work out that you know 3.5 or higher If you see I'm jump on them because the next day is easy up And then and the next several days to actually use the Metal Metal charger two things going on here. Here's the metal chart. This is the inflation deflation ratio on a yeah on a daily time frame I've been waiting for this market to go, but there's two charts. I want to point out This one gave another buy signal because they are it's inflation deflation ratio on a daily time frame Okay, give them we're in a buy signal right now because it's below 30 and Once it gets below 30 and turns up it's easy a buy signal and it got below 30 Yesterday and it's turning up today. So probably yesterday was a low So what does that mean on a mid-term scale? Well, we don't know but turn to Chart number eight the three's want to put it put it in here. I have it Next this next at some point to get this discharge bullish Yeah, that the top window is a monthly Cumulative up-down volume for GDX the bottom window is a monthly cumulative advance decline for GDX Right to get these indicate and these indicators when they trigger their multi-year And we've been the last signal was generated in January of 2021 and it's been on a cell signal sense Because both these indicators are going down to get a buy signal both those indicators need to be above the mid-Bullinger band All right, and the blue lines show when it's happened It got above the mid-Bullinger band and stayed there and the red lines are when it closed below the mid-Bullinger band I thought a couple times over the last several months that we would close above it. It was close enough But market didn't fall through Yeah, right there. Yep, right. Okay, cool Right well, we need to close above the mid-Bullinger band Yeah, and hold above the mid-Bullinger band and so far that hasn't happened. Will this rally do it? I don't know, you know, it's cool The chart before that to the inflation deflation It's so intriguing because the gold stocks are actually moving today with the dollar up and it's not that gold's up that much I mean, it's up. It's going trading sideways, but the gold stocks themselves a movie man It's like, okay, we have a lot of green on the screen here on the gold stock. So Well, this is Tim. It's great to be back with you It's always a pleasure and you know can't wait to talk to you again on Thursday, man I love you guys. Love you man. Thanks so much. Stay right there folks. Come right back