 Hey everyone, how's it going today? We're gonna talk a little bit about CPI, but just give me a minute to get everything all set here All right. I hope everyone is doing well out there listening to this So we're gonna look at what's going on. I'm gonna just shift over to my presentation here So give me a moment There we go all right, so This is a presentation for book map we do this every Tuesday at 9 a.m. And It's really about finding coalescence in the markets where that can offer opportunity And it's also about talking about what's happened why it matters today We got a big CPI data point that the market is looking at with a lot of importance and probably rightfully so So we're gonna talk a little bit about that as well Little about me. I'm an experienced trader and investor. I started this game in 2005 I've been trading since I started investing in 2006 navigated my way through the great financial crisis learned a lot along the way and I continue to love finance I continue to love economics and I continue to keep an open mind and I enjoy learning quite a bit and So if you're interested in more about what I'm up to you can find me at trader a calm This is where we help you sharpen your trading edge for short to intermediate timeframe traders of all skill levels and backgrounds We'll have a lot of unique tools some of which you'll see during today's presentation Visualizing the options markets and beyond now. There's also my project, which I'm really excited about macro visor This is where we make macro actionable for folks So we take the big picture we look for trends and thematic investable themes and we discuss them and share our research there You could find me on YouTube as well at YouTube comm slash at mayhem for markets and You know if you're interested in book map itself you can get up to 40% off by visiting trader a comm slash book map So let's get right to it and if you're not aware You can actually see the feed the visuals on this presentation are available on YouTube. So if you click on my Twitter The pin tweet actually has the YouTube on it as well. Okay, so just in case folks want to watch it there You've got that option. So let's do everyone's favorite part. This is where I read the disclaimer text All book back all book map limited materials information and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment Advice no recommendations trading futures equities and digital currencies involve substantial risk of loss That is not suitable for all investors past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Love it, right? So we got CPI today and It came in well below what all the forecasts were headline came in at 3.2 versus 3.3 Oh year over year monthly came in at zero versus a forecast of one tenth one percent Core CPI came in at four percent year over year Versus a forecast of four point one percent and it came in monthly at zero point two percent versus zero point three So there's a lot to like in this report led lower by energy year over year That was the big loser in the report We still do see some increases in shelter and Transportation you can find a little thread about that that I wrote on Twitter if you'd like to see more But nevertheless we can see pre-market. This market is very excited about this news S&P is bid up one point three percent Nasdaq's bid up one point seven percent Even the Dow's getting in on the action up over a percent here and we have the 30-year bond futures also rising up over one percent So really across the board the market's giving this CPI a clean bill of health the dollar is getting sold down down About three quarters of a percent here. So what does that tell us it tells us there's a sigh of relief here There's a sigh of relief the market feels better about this data and the trend that is happening in CPI It was really kind of on the line in the sense that of course CPI month over month came in hotter than expected That could have caused the exact opposite reaction of what we're seeing right now So the market's really focused on this and I think it's important for us to kind of digest Unpack see how this market trades particularly after the cash open and for the first hour We'll also get PPI and retail sales tomorrow, which will be pretty important data points and then for everyone that Loves Fed speakers. It's one of the best weeks ever. There's like 20 Fed speeches this week So if you love Fed speakers, this is absolutely the best week of your life So let's talk about some of the things that could feed into further upside here because I think it is interesting We are in an environment of positive seasonality. We do have a lot of flows here that could continue to add We've had this sort of bull flag breakout in the S&P and the NASDAQ We're adding to that momentum after that big breath thrust that we had and we still have reasons to look for further upside in the near term One of them is that corporate buybacks are back in a big way And this is important because this is one of the big sources of inflows that provide a bid under the market So we can see the rolling five-day corporate buyback estimate is just absolutely going to surge here into the end of the month That's pretty good for the stock market We're out of that blackout period because we've gone past peak earnings season So that's one area to just keep in the back of your mind that these buybacks particularly in the larger companies that have authorized I think 2023 year-to-date is the third largest year of authorizations Remember, of course an author this authorization doesn't mean the company has to buy their shares But it gives them the optionality to do so should they wish and we're now in a period where we'll see if the rubber meets The road, but in all likelihood it probably will Next is the flows from equity mutual funds and ETFs They almost always get a good pop in November for the money managers One of the reasons is that they're kind of topping up these retirement accounts in November as they prepare to close out the year So you can see December is comparatively subdued This is important to keep an eye on as well because this is another one of those factors that feeds into that implicit bid Right, so just something to keep in the back of your mind. We know the buybacks are happening. We also know there's these equity flows We also have CTAs based on this model from Goldman that are Extremely short this market systematic traders also extremely short this market so they have some buying that they're likely to do and That's important to factor in as well because we've certainly seen a momentum shift, right? These are momentum traders So when we see a momentum shift in the market They're likely to start cleaning up those short positions and even getting long And I think there's something between 60 and 70 billion dollars worth of buying for them to do in S&P So that's no small amount over the next say three or four weeks assuming this momentum continues They would be another party at that marginal bid and And then we have skew and skew matters a lot more because we are in op-ex week and skew is Well, it's rising again So it gives those flows of Delta and theta decay or van and charm flows a bit of an extra boost as we get into this this trading day and really the next several trading days leading into Friday Which is monthly options expiration So we know we have a number of these constructive flows that are adding to the potential for further upside here We've also made a pretty good technical pushes. I was mentioning earlier and this morning The implied open is above that wall of calls at 44 50, which we'll look at in just a little bit on the YouTube stream So that could also help to further unleash a bit of upside So here we are on that same screen talking about 4400 below us being a pretty important level that would be the vault trigger That's the largest area of gamma positioning on the chain and above us 44 50 And you know if we open the way that we're likely set to open here you'll probably see a lot of these call buyers cash in and and Rotate to 4500 particularly as we're in that monthly options expiration period I would expect they move that wall of calls higher unless we're like, you know cleanly rejected at the open Which seems like a low probability scenario to me So these are two levels to watch pretty closely. We are back in positive gamma territory now Which just gives us the sense that perhaps there is going to be more buying of dips more selling of rips It's a volatility compressing regime that we're in this has to do with dealer hedging Dynamics were when they're long gamma and how they change So just something to take into consideration and one reason that realized and implied vols could be Subdued for a little bit here Now let's zoom in a little bit. These charts are all from trader aid These are generated every minute throughout regular trading hours on our website and our discord So everyone's able to access these full chain as well zero DTE charts of similar information And then we have our handy dandy botger who's generated these levels You're welcome to screenshot this if it's helpful to you These are the S&P levels that we're watching out watching based on the algorithm We use to analyze the CBOE and all the positioning across the chain there That gives us the gamma flip level of 43 71 So, you know, we're implied at an open of about a hundred points above that now the effect of gamma exposure It's gonna peak probably around 4500 or so so probably won't get more and more of a vol compressor much past that level at least based on current positioning and that is also an area to watch where I think maybe we'll start to see a New wall of calls form based on the price action today Now when we're looking at the number of stocks in the New York Stock Exchange that are above their 20-day moving average It is quite a lot. We're over 60% here We did have that big push over 70% last week with that breadth thrust and this is still Good territory for longs in single stocks now What's really interesting and what I'll be very interested in watching the trading today is that hedge funds have absolutely been piling into single stock shorts. I Mean they're just all over the map on these and I think that's where there's gonna be some very interesting opportunities and some of these Really really aggressively shorted names that have a long, you know, number of days to cover So, you know looking at stocks that have over 20% short interest over 10 days to cover floats that aren't too much bigger than 50 million shares There could be some squeeze opportunities there and if they're optionable Often is the case that squeeze will be effectuated with unusual flows of calls You'll see those start and then you'll see the dealers hedging by buying more and more shares And then it starts to force shorts to cover and it becomes a bit of a momentum play So be looking at some of those over the next week I know in October some of the most shorted stocks had an incredible bid They were up about 14% Goldman's most shorted basket on the month and yet hedge funds continued to pile into shorting single stocks even more they are going more long in macro products index and Other types of ETFs sector ETFs, but looking at some of the single stocks that have unusually high short exposure I think is interesting in this particular environment If we look at the 50 day moving average on New York stock exchange listed stocks, it's still an impressive push higher We were below 16% we got well above 40% Even 50% last week and we're just sort of hovering here So again, there's a lot more stocks above that key 50 day moving average in the New York stock exchange That again gives us a little bit more of a sense that there is some room for continuation here Now let's look at the S&P futures directly here This is a chart from trading view and it's one I've been sharing periodically as there's updates We can see relative strength is on the rise. So that's good That's exactly what we like to see for a healthy uptrend is that relative strength rising here We also had this push above this point of control that we're looking at just a multi-month point of control I know some are drawing it down here when we're looking at year-to-date But if we look at that multi-month point of control, that's important too We've had that push above. We've also had that breakout from the bull flag So these are two things that tell us that this market could have room higher in in pre-market We're also pushing above this lower volume node area here Which is telling us that buyers want to push us into this next area of the auction profile Which gets us around? 4,500 ES and I think that's an interesting area to look at because certainly at least what we're seeing pre-market strongly suggests We're gonna get pulled into that area where market participants like to transact the Nasdaq has a similarly very bullish look It's pushed above its point of control. It's had this, you know bull flag breakout RSI is continuing to rise here So seeing this thing revisit recent highs from the summer would not be terribly surprising as a result of this rally as well And then we have everyone's favorite instrument to hate We've got record levels of hedge funds short positioning in the treasury market now that doesn't mean they're just shorting these things blindly They're actually doing what's called the basis trade So they do have a fair amount of long exposure as well But what this tells us is that you know big moves can add to volatility in this market because of that level positioning We just pushed above the 20. We had some more validation after CPI of that today We're pushing further so having a retest of this key level in this low volume node just above us wouldn't be terribly surprising That would portend to rates falling further And if we're able to cross that level getting back up into this area where most of the transacting has been happening You can see this has been a pretty important area for the market that wouldn't be terribly surprising That would be around 110 and that would probably bring bring rates around You know 4.4 4.45 percent on the tenure So that would be welcome news to equities to see that continued bid in Treasuries and that continued drop in longer end rates Then we have gold gold is surpassing my expectations here. Maybe this is a counter trend bounce I'm still looking for this thing to potentially retreat down to around 1916 although I will say if rates and the dollar continue to drop that trade is not going to work out So it's really going to be about whether or not gold makes this push above 50 on the RSI that would have me looking at it a little bit differently And whether it's able to reclaim the 20 and this point of control that would also have me looking at it a little differently For now, I'm neutral on gold after this recent move and I'm interested in watching how it trades today then we have crude oil and This thing has been absolutely smashed recently We saw it break below two key trend lines its point of control that 20-day moving average RSI moving below 50 This area between 74 17 and 74 68 and the WTI futures contract is really important I think if we do get another sort of flush lower, we might be having a sort of you know One of these series of lower highs lower lows So if we do have that kind of move it'd be interesting to see if we have a head fake look below and then Stabilize above that's kind of what I'm looking for based on this pattern We'll have to see what actually ends up playing out obviously But that would have me interested if we have that look below and we actually are able to get into this area of low Volume and then push back above. I would be interested in taking some short-term kind of counter trend longs in crude on that So let's go into book map here as that completes my presentation. We'll start to look at what we have going on here Pre-market we have the S&P 500 futures on screen here We also have the Nasdaq which is as usual pretty choppy Making a little bit of a push higher here We've got the tenure which we'll watch because this is so important for the Nasdaq in particular But the S&P as well you can see a little bit of iceberg selling in this not much about 786 contracts net and this is a really liquid instrument. You can see pre-market. It's got 470,000 contracts in the book Gold is continuing to push higher here. This is a healthy move again. We're going to be looking to see If it's able to push above its 20-day moving average and yearly point of control or multi-month point of control during regular trading hours But you can see that buyers are pulling up this point of control and that's certainly constructive pre-market and Then we have crude here sort of chopping along, but it's recovered nicely off its lows. It was trading down towards 76 It's at 79 today. It did have a little bit of a pop recently Let's see if we can continue it just tested its VWAP and seems to be bouncing from there So far though, this is looking relatively constructive Now pre-market I just got word from my partner Isha that Tesla is up another 5% One of the things that I was talking about on the trade raid discord yesterday was the unusual Amount of buying that was happening in Tesla calls. It was actually rather extraordinary And I think there was over a million dollars of premium pay in a span of several hours for those calls expiring this Friday So certainly someone knew something also Elon apparently put up some of that merchandise those short shorts Which you know if we if we believe that that's a sign It's a sign he wants to burn the shorts and certainly with a rise of almost 10% in two days time That is something that's happening. Let's look around the futures complex here as well I think it's always important to get a sense as to what else is going on There's a lot of other products that trade obviously, so I'm just going to pull this screen in here This is FinViz. If you don't use FinViz, you probably should at least look at it It's pretty neat. This is a heat map of all the futures contracts that they're tracking And we can see what's going on here pre-market, right? You've got this huge bid in the 30 or now above 115 This is starting to look pretty interesting pre-market here as well. You can see it's challenging a recent high So erasing all that angst from that poor auction that we had So that's something to keep in mind. We also have some of these industrial metals actually catching a bit of a bid Palladium has been absolutely destroyed recently. It's coming off those lows Platinum also catching a little bit of a bid off of its recent lows silver as well joining in on the fun here If it moves much higher it's going to start to look a little bit bullish and of course the dollar is rolling over and this pattern that we're seeing in the Dollar is actually quite bearish This suggests to me that the dollar has more room because it did just make a new multi-month low Let's see how we close the day But for now this is starting to look like a bit of a breakdown in the US dollar Which would be quite good for equities could be good for some of these commodities would be good for likely bonds and So it's something to keep an eye on of course the interplay between rates and dollars Sometimes a little bit of chicken and egg as to who's setting the tone Now ag's consolidating a bit. I'm still bullish on soybeans here. I have been for a little bit I think it still has room higher this is one of those commodities that You know, it has a pretty healthy uptrend if you look at it from October to present It does look like it's trying to really make a push here So something to keep in mind if you trade such things there is an ETF called SOYB the only caution I would give you on trading commodity ETFs is that if you're in the US You're gonna deal with a K1 schedule at the end of the year Or, you know, basically at the end of the year You'll get it probably Jan fab and if you have enough of those It's a bit of a pain in the butt for you and your account to go through all of them but other than that There are a number of commodity ETFs if trading futures isn't your thing And just a sidebar for those that don't know there is a big difference between trading stocks and ETFs and trading futures in terms of your tax treatment in terms of wash sale rules It is it's more favorable if you're a higher frequency trader to trade futures Obviously talk to your CPA see if that's the thing that you should do But I would be remiss not to at least mention that because you know It's a lot harder to do the same kinds of higher frequency trading in Stocks and ETFs that you can do in futures and you get better tax treatment on your capital gains and futures as well So just a heads up just putting that out there for those that are interested Let's go back into book map here and we're waiting for the open which is less than eight minutes away Now if anyone has any questions feel free to reach out you can pop them in the YouTube chat room You can put them in the comments on this space or you can tag me in on the book map discord We're broadcasting to all three places simultaneously And let's take a look at some of the news pre-market here and see if there's anything else important to look at One thing I like to look at every morning is breakfast bites, which we publish on macro visor comm It's a great way to start your day Really lots of information there that I know a lot of folks spend hours You know just combing through all the stuff that's happened overnight Try taking 15 minutes instead. Have it all right there for you and ready Isha does a great job putting this together and it's it's right there on macro visor comm So just a quick plug, but I think it's worth it. It's it's really great content We do see a little bit of a push here in s and p pushing above vwap dragging the point of control a little bit higher Let's zoom out if you look at the right column on the screen here You can see all these levels under the options column. This is unique to trader aid Because this is an algorithm that I developed and I've added this input data directly into book map as a result So that we can see how it may affect price interaction and often it does for example You can see this key gamma level right above us and there's so much resting liquidity on the offer there That's not a coincidence. This is often the case that you see coalescence And when you do it's even more important those levels they stand out a bit And this is a tool that um, I will be looking at building in for other Let's say nasdaq spy other really optionable trades even some of the really popular single stocks like tesla This is a tool that i'll be building in For those as well Nasdaq's pretty darn excited popping and dropping as we approach the open here And to anyone that I serve or mute on the book map I'm it's no disrespect to you all just doing it so that I can clean up the audio there For everyone else that is listening And there is some very small chance we get a government shutdown if these guys can't figure out a budget I'm not particularly worried about that if it happens in the sense that I think if it does happen It'll be resolved quickly, but I think the chances of it happening with everything going on right now are actually very low Sort of like how the uh, the moody's outlook downgrade was a massive nothing burger Which is exactly what I was saying on friday as soon as it came out and there was folks saying oh, we're all going to die I mean, it's it's nothing it really it's just basically them saying look There are some risks you all need to pass your budget You need to stop spending on stupid stuff. You need to stop the saber rattling Obviously, we know those things are probably going to be a mixed picture in terms of the progress that our legislature makes But at the end of the day moody's You know downgrading the outlook has no real material effect on anything They downgraded our credit rating that might have an effect for a little while But again markets tend to look past this sort of thing and u.s Sovereign is still the best dirty shirt in the shop, right? So if you think about it if you're going into a neighborhood and there's three houses because this is kind of like the three biggest markets that issue debt You've got the eurozone And it's smoldering you've got the uh the the Japanese economy and it's you know It's starting to do better But it's still a house that's on fire and then you've got the u.s And it just needs a paint job it needs some new floors Maybe a new roof and the reason I use that metaphor is it's that's what keeps bringing people back to us assets is It's not that everything here is great. It's not that the situation with the u.s. Treasury is amazing It's that it's less bad Then you know what we're seeing in japan with their 260 debt to GDP ratio Or what we're seeing in the eurozone where they're teetering on recession so That's one of the reasons that you know u.s assets remain attractive the other is that Quite frankly most of the most attractive assets are priced in dollars and are in the u.s Our stock market is the biggest in the world by a lot in fact apple itself just apple Has more capitalization than the stock market of italy Just as an example. It's pretty wild Microsoft has more market cap than I believe the stock market of spain. I mean you think about how extraordinary What's happened in u.s markets are and sure you can argue there's a bubble and there is But you know, we got to dance while the music's on and right now the music's playing pretty loud Let's see. We got less than one minute until the open here We've got liquidity building up above us here on s and p futures That tends to act a little bit like a magnet when trend is your friend. So trend is our friend We can see point of control stair stepping higher with price Wouldn't be too surprised to see buyers Absorb a lot of this liquidity above us post open. Let's see how it goes NASDAQ a bit of a similar look on this one. Remember, this is a much less liquid contract than the s and p So It's important to take that into context when you see a hundred offer above us. That's actually pretty big When NASDAQ book depth is just over 10,000 So that tells us we should be paying attention to the these Resting bids and resting offers of size, right? You've got a 224 bid At 15 790 as well. That's important And there's the bell NASDAQ right off the bat is testing that point of control. Let's move over to s and p Which is starting to push higher into this area of resting liquidity. Let's see if the buyers can absorb that They just did So seeing that that sort of idea of some level of absorption right into the open is is playing out here buyers absorbing these resting orders really without any problem at all You do see institutions Layering into this they've taken off about 2,300 contracts into this strength So it is worth watching that doesn't mean that it's over, but it's at least Something to take note of that that sort of passive selling into strength Let's see how we're doing over at the NASDAQ NASDAQ similar look Took out some of that resting liquidity above but look at that huge offer And bid there's a pretty pretty big amount of liquidity This is not typical that you see this in the NASDAQ. So We'll be paying close attention to that. We see the point of control getting dragged just a bit higher here Let's check on our friends over in the tenure rates rates are coming down as futures are bid above the point of control and vwap Here's some distribution though now Actually some selling that's at least noteworthy where you have about 4700 contracts being sold for zn not huge but noteworthy Let's take a look at gold gold is rolling over a bit after the open Under the point of control, which just got dragged higher by the buyers here. Let's see if we get any support at vwap And finally we've got crude crude retreating below 79 Little bit of institutional buying off these lows here We'll go back to the spools as we like to call them We've got uh 279 just above at 4490. We'll see if that gets taken out looks like it will buyers very much can in control this so far And there you go That resting offer absorbed and we're seeing them above us here. We got 4500 And 4495 with decent amounts of liquidity there. We also have a new resting bid here at 4475 probably moving Down from that 4480 Sorry about that folks spaces are gonna space sometimes and so it did Anywho, we uh Have a pretty interesting open overall We took out all that resting liquidity that was above us that big chunk. I mean there's about Like 1200 plus contracts in that so it's noteworthy But we still do see institution selling you can see that in the sub chart here Those are the icebergs that's from the mbo plugin on bookmap. I like tracking it both on screen and on the sub chart I do clean up the on screen. I don't want to see every single tiny iceberg I like to see them of size. I like to see them of unusual size So that's really all you're going to see printing on screen And this is a feed by the way without the options without the sub chart But you can get it on youtube if you want all the bells and whistles including the options feed We have that on the trade raid plus discord so you can always check that out there Getting a bit of a bid back as we challenge that point of control to the upside We have a little bit of liquidity appearing above once again pretty chunky And that tends to act like a magnet when trend is on our side I like to re-emphasize that because it's really important to understand these dynamics I know a lot of folks think if you're looking at the order book if a big order comes up above you It means, you know, there's this wall. They're going to sell into it. It's not going to get there People are going to run away. It doesn't trade that way in the s&p It really doesn't And often is the case in in other uh futures contracts You have that similar kind of magnetic pull and the idea is an auction theory If you've got this liquidity that wants to be released and the market isn't incredibly liquid Then the auction is going to look to release that liquidity and certainly we're seeing some of those dynamics play out today 4495 resting offer is getting a little chunk here about 280 up there That's grown over the last several minutes Let's move over to the nasdaq see what's going on in our favorite high beta beast It is pushing closer to that 15 850 level. That is where there's 290 on on offer just above And we do see just like with the s&p some degree of institutional selling that iceberg sub chart falling negative 2,500 contracts is pretty big for the nasdaq So there's definitely institutions taking some profits here. Maybe even layering into some shorts Doesn't mean that we take any immediate action Looking at this, but it does mean we take a note of that I would be more concerned if we saw a lot of Small trader shorts getting blown out as those icebergs were selling into it, but we're not quite seeing that dynamic A little big trade just happened in gold. I'm going to pull that on screen. Wow. Look at that Someone bought a hundred contracts of gold just came up in my ear. I've got alerts for that And you can see them pushing right into that large area of resting liquidity above So once again a large area of resting liquidity acts as a magnet when trend is your friend and pulls price towards it to release that liquidity Gold like the nasdaq not very High book depth right on this contract. You can see it's less than 8,000 for the front month on gold So when you see 141 on the offer, it's meaningful That's like 2 of the liquidity just kind of sitting there Asking to be a you know to be transacted So important just to contextualize this. This is how I like to use book map It's one of the reasons that I think it's really helpful Is because you can really see these dynamics and you can see in gold Liquidity is building above us. Look at that heat map up there You can see and there's not much below that suggested price has more room to rise higher From here to see how crude is doing just sort of chopping sideways here not a lot To really do in crude So we'll go back to the s and p Oh, look at that. You've got $5.95 at $44.90 just above And remember folks, this is op-ex week Which means that a lot of the theory that we might use to trade a lot of the systems and approaches They may not work as well Because you have huge huge parties that are Basically price insensitive in the sense that they just have to move positions They have to roll positions in the s and p in their single stocks and their etfs and any of the options that they have They have to roll positions in the vixx. We've got vixxpiration tomorrow and monthly op-ex on friday Why am I saying all this because it just means it's a good time to be a little bit more cautious You're likely to have volatility that is less related to key levels being breached to the upside or downside And I think that's something that should give us just a little bit of Appreciation for risk management even more than normal on a week like this And folks, if you like what you see on screen with book map, you can get up to 40 off by going to traderade.com Slash book map I say that because I know a lot of folks like this software and we've got an amazing partnership with them We have some of the best discounts you can get So if you are interested check that out I've been using it for about two and a half years and I wouldn't go back to a world where I don't use it every day That's that's just me Although I will say my partner horse is the same way he uses book map every day. We both use this options visualization tool that I built as well to shape our trading and it's It's quite handy to have that in as a part of the total system as well Now the options visualization system is something that will eventually add to the book map marketplace But for right now it's exclusive to traderade plus So let's see. We've got that 368 at 4500 having just taken out that chunky offer at 44 91 Uh 44 90. I'm sorry. And then we've got 44 95 At 269. So again with s and p within proximity to price liquidity is largely above rather than below Nasdaq looks Like it wants to try to challenge this upper level. Let's see what happens here. This is pretty interesting Again, you don't often see this big of a resting offer in nq So it's noteworthy The russell is absolutely surging up over 3% now So there is definitely some element of both that excitement where you see folks piling in the calls IWM had some of the largest call flows we've ever seen recently But there's another side of this as well And that is that there is short covering because if you look at hedge funds and their positioning dynamics Not only do they favor shorting single stocks But they also really like They also really like to short the russell as a part of their trade So seeing the russell bit up as it is you probably have some hedge funds that are flattening out that part of their book as well And we're continuing to grind higher on s and p. We still do see more institutional selling. These are these iceberg blue diamonds that you see above But buyers seem willing to absorb that pressure and continue to push So seeing this move higher potentially to something like 4500 would not be terribly surprising Still waiting for the most active options levels to come in. However, we'll see what that looks like once that prints We give it a little bit of time post open to really see where the activity is And then it'll automatically come up on screen And then it's also available on some of the charts that we produce as well And pretty cool. Just as a sidebar. I'm working on a extension to this tool right now It's focused on like, you know s and p cash sp y and triple q I will be adding both full chain Gamma tools as well as zero dte gamma tools for all single stocks and etfs that are optionable in the us So that's something that i'm working on that I expect to have available before the end of this year On trade raid plus as well, which will just be built through that bot gur that I have on the discord Should be pretty cool And then eventually those levels will be something we can export to any chart software that can import levels So, you know trading view trend spider Perhaps motive wave sierra chart all that kind of stuff So you can have those options positioning levels right on your chart Sort of like what we're doing here on book map So they took that 4495 offer, right? You could see that's no longer on the heat map now pushing up to 4500 And again liquidity is acting as a magnet See a little bit of a sell look at that nasdaq pushed through that key level 15 850 absorbed We were talking about that level pretty much all morning since we pop book map on screen and looked at the nasdaq And buyers took it right out no problem at all That's a good sign. Let's see how we go from here And we didn't see a lot of iceberging into that which again is another good sign I think that tells us that perhaps Buyers are really taking control of this thing willing to absorb the selling pressure And sellers are starting to pull back a bit no longer layering that passive selling in on these moves these pushes higher We'll zoom out a little bit We don't see as much liquidity stacking above on the nasdaq, but there's some S&P that 4500 level remains really important. I would be very surprised if we don't fill that order the bank of england's Pill which is I believe one of their voting members has said we may not need to move rates further Barkin striking a somewhat similar tone basically saying that the impact from higher rates may be lagged But he also goes on to say I am not convinced inflation is on a smooth path down to 2 And the fed being as data driven as they are probably wanting to see just a little more data before they start talking about potentially being done See if there's any interesting things going on in the world of unusual options flows And 4500 pretty much looks like it's in the bag at this point. We're just two handles away That might kind of be the extent of the upside move that we see here in terms of Seeing 4500 get filled and seeing the nasdaq fill that huge order at 15 850. Let's see what the options tell us when we get those Most actives in but this is already a very impressive move Seeing a little bit of consolidation here in the 10 year futures Gold still has that liquidity resting above. It's below its point of control here. Just fading after that powerful move higher And crude's rolling over just a little bit, but it had a nice push and it's actually started to pull That point of control higher. So after that period of consolidation It made a nice little push higher now. It's consolidating that gain. Let's see what happens from there But crude moving higher tends to put pressure on rates to move higher as well You know the tenure rate and the price of oil tend to have a reasonably strong positive correlation So if oil moves higher rates could move higher as well, particularly above 80 Probably catch a lot of people's attention And we can see that resting offer at 80 actually thinned out quite a bit on the cl contract And there's spooze right there taking out that 4500 resting offer As we've been talking about for a while. That was a a decent chunky offer and magnet You know, it sort of becomes a bit magnetic when you see an offer that big in a positively trending market above us It's likely to get filled. So it did the most active call right now is quite a ways above it's at 45 13 with 2000 traded there And the put call ratio as well as the volume on that call favors That being a more important option to watch than the put right now Which is going to be around 4400 yes, but these initial levels Usually I like to give it a little bit more time to see how they kind of fill out I'm more interested in watching this most active call in the present and again, that's around 45 13 on es We're translating those spx levels dynamically So, you know, if you are long into this and you made a good chunk It's not a terrible place to take off core leave runners on for any potential further upside But after the the magnitude of the move that we've seen I would be cautious looking for further upside from here Today that's not to say over the longer period of time. We can't get more. I think we certainly can But today We might be close to the end of the kind of momentum we're seeing here Maybe another 13 handles 15 handles an s and p higher NASDAQ similar kind of consolidating around this uh 15 850 level Still seeing that institutional selling into price pushing higher negative 3000 icebergs On an order book that only has a depth of about 10 000 contracts. So again, you know passive selling on the NASDAQ is reasonably noteworthy Rates continue to consolidate here. There was a decent iceberg buy 6000 contracts On zn And gold is continuing to move a bit lower here. It's it's an orderly decline From the area where it reached kind of pulled that point of control higher and then couldn't Push into those areas of resting liquidity above at least yet I'd consider this more of a rest than a trend change right now and crude Coming back down testing that point of control and we're seeing some resting uh bids below us Start to build just a little bit, but we have plenty of resting offers above again This is another really illiquid order book this Less than 5000 contract book depth That just means it doesn't take a lot of volume to move price quite a bit It's one of the reasons crude could be quite erratic to trade The feds bark and says we're not in a recession right now I would say that is an accurate assessment although very Kind of on its face obvious statement as well that most active call at es 45 13 is growing 5000 now exchange there it remains the most active option on the spx chain And put call ratio continues to see more calls transacted than puts That in turn can favor a bit more upside that dynamic. That's one of the reasons this tool can be pretty handy Just having a quick glance at sort of the flows that are driving price discovery And if we talk about zero dte's there's over 650 billion of notional traded in spx zero dte's every day the whole complex It's about 1.3 trillion of notional trades. So it's about 50 percent of all volume in spx and all notional in spx Is trading zero dte So these options are being bought with six and a half hours or less to expire it's pretty extraordinary And it does have a big impact on intraday price discovery and we see it often You do see a little bit more institutional selling on the s and p is about an 839 contract iceberg You can see that on the sub chart nothing huge but worth noting where they're selling to surround that 4500 level there's more appetite from sellers here And just got our first unusual options flow for this morning. It's iwm wouldn't you know it And these are calls for a 180 strike expiring december 1st with premium of 141 000 paid So we're kind of continuing that dynamic of seeing really aggressive call buying in iwm We also have some smaller calls happening in favorites like tesla invidia And a bit of adobe On the other side, you see some hedging flows in the dow diamonds etf For the strike of 347 on the put side about 54 000 in premium paid there nothing too big Also some put buying in slv 57 000 for the 21s expiring this friday the dow was also this friday really a lot of the put buying is just very short dated here I don't know why this headline is being listed as important, but i'm going to read it for giggles kevin leary Says that we should ban china stock listings in us markets and it's not that i completely disagree with what he's saying I just don't think that anything he says is worth listening to But i'm saying it because i find it amusing so i've got about Just a little bit over three minutes left. Let's just take a quick look at the s and p 500 heat map here As we round out this stream and remember i'm i'm here every Tuesday 9 a.m. To 10 a.m. Eastern And i really enjoy doing these i hope you guys enjoy listening in This is exactly the type of thing that we do on trader aid regularly on the discord We have streams we talk about what's happening in the trading environment. What's happening in the bigger picture We look at opportunities and single stocks industries sectors different asset classes entirely And uh over different time frames from day trading all the way through swing So on screen, we've got the s and p 500 heat map amazon up 2.81 percent Tesla up 4.53 percent adobe up 2.77 percent amd up 3.53 percent into it up 4.25 percent tech really Showing some strength here real estate as well though some pretty good bids in real estate utilities lit up green The breadth today is good That's really the takeaway here is that the positive breadth today is quite healthy And this is exactly what we want to see to get a sense that maybe there's some room for continuation If this was a very narrow rally and it was just led by a handful of stocks I would be concerned about its durability, but the fact that it's actually Reasonably diversified that we have that positive breadth across a number of different sectors energy is not participating quite as much Health care quite not as much uh insurance not as much, but the rest of the s and p 500 sectors look Pretty well bid So i've got less than two minutes left if anyone has any questions feel free to ask as we round this out If you don't get to ask during the stream, you're welcome to tag me in on twitter and ask or um You know reach out otherwise you can tag me in on the book map discord server in my channel Or you can leave a comment in the chat But i want to thank everyone for tuning in these are always a lot of fun to do Really appreciate your support and checking out what we're doing here and once one last time I'll just say if you like book map if you're interested in this product and see the value You get up to 40 off by visiting trader e dot com slash book map And the only reason I endorse them and you don't see me endorsing a lot of other products is I actually use them I love the product and you can see how valuable it is with this Kind of interaction with how important resting liquidity is for price discovery So thanks everyone for checking this out. Remember there is a book map stream on youtube with uh Just the basics doesn't have the options levels or the sub chart We've got the fully featured stream over on our discord server as a part of the trader aid plus package So thanks again for tuning in really appreciate it and i'll be back next tuesday at nine a.m. Eastern. I'll see you then