 And we're seeing this now like once a week. But, you know, we are seeing a snapback rally at some point during the week, right? You know, who knows, maybe it's tomorrow. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process and own your future. Hey guys, good evening, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the access a trader.com nightly wrap up show. Hope everybody is doing well. Again, aggressive market. It continues to be kind of the same dog and pony show, right? Market super weak, super aggressive. We'll have days that will spike back reverse. But ultimately, this is kind of the same. Same thing, you know, on rotations, kind of like the hamster wheel effect or a lot of you guys who you guys remember from from from the 80s or there was a 90s with Bill Murray, Groundhogs Day. It's completely the same day over and over again. The one thing that I will say in 2020 and 2021, you know, it was very tough for me for a long time to kind of acknowledge that the 2021 market was the closest thing to dot com, right? Because dot com was just on a different level. So for example, for every one stock that you'd see up, you know, 100, 200 percent during dot com, you'd have days that 20 of these stocks would be up doing the same thing. So I finally acknowledged it at some point around 2021. I go, yeah, you know what? It is the closest thing that we seem to dot com. And the one thing that I remember during that era when we finally started unwinding and it was a pretty aggressive dot com bubble, right? That finally exploded. A lot of people I remember were in denial, right? So for example, like a stock like Cisco, I give you a perfect example. Not that Cisco is the end all be all, but just to give you an idea. This wasn't even an internet stock, but just to give you an idea of what I mean. So Cisco during the dot com era is, you know, just like everything else you could see here, you know, during this whole time had this massive, massive run and in between this whole massive, massive run, it had five stocks was just to give you an idea of how the euphoric nature was. And after the five stocks, so you could do the math, the pulse split high was eighty two dollars, but you have to like divide that by five. So let's just say whatever it was, right? Four hundred dollars. And I remember when when the unwinding came, they started taking down everything. It wasn't just the dot com stocks, it was the storage stocks. It was the biotech stocks. It was the networkers, for example, like a Cisco or corning that was like a glass maker or some shit like that, whatever it was. Anyway, the point was when you had all these stocks on line, then again, we could even sit here with Corning, same thing. You had the same thing, right? All these stocks had exactly the same chart. And all you kept on hearing was the same thing, right? Oh, Corning just went from one hundred to eighty. It just went from eighty to fifty. Oh, my God, at forty, it's a steal. At thirty, it's like taking candy from a baby. Oh, at twenty dollars. Oh, my God, back up the truck. I'm going in all in and then the stock goes to a dollar fifty, right? It goes to a dollar fifty approximately two years later. Again, nobody's saying by any stretch of the imagination that any stock that was two, three, four hundred dollars a share, you know, two months ago, three months or four months ago is going to go to zero. It's not what I'm talking about. But the most important part in this in the common denominator that the dot com bubble had where this kind of I don't want to call it a bubble, but like this this back test is, is there was very, very high inflated prices. So, for example, if you guys remember, there was a there was a company called ETOYS, right? And ETOYS had this big, big move, but ETOYS never made any money, right? ETOYS never made any money. They were just basically selling toys online. And, you know, let's just pretend I don't remember how high the stock was. But let's pretend the stock went from two to seventy five. So somebody from seventy five dollars when the stock went to thirty said, oh my God, the stock is oversold. The stock is not oversold because it should have never been to seventy five dollars. So when it finally went to zero, well, that was his fair value because fundamental analysis at some point takes over, right? So you can make an argument that a stock, for example, like UPST, which had, I would say, some pretty bad earnings tonight, right? When you look at UPST and you turn around and say, well, the stock was at four hundred dollars, you know, only last October, right? Before going into today's earnings session, look how cheap the stock is at seventy seven dollars. And you could turn around and say, well, wait a minute, how could fundamentals, right, fundamentals be warranted for the stock in the first place? Maybe the stock deserved to be at twelve dollars. Maybe deserve to be at eight dollars. Maybe deserve to be at nine dollars. It shouldn't have went to four hundred dollars at all. So the idea that after the close, they came out with earnings and the stocks of forty four dollars doesn't mean the stock is cheap. It just means that the same thing happened during the dot com bubble with the toys and all these stocks that never should have been at seventy eighty one hundred two hundred dollars a share because their fundamentals were not warranted to their stock price and finally came down crashing. This is the same scenario. This is a comparable type of unwind that some stocks or a lot of stocks that were deemed as the growth renaissance for this generation were really not supposed to be there in the first place. So when you look at a stock like a UPST tonight and said, my God, the stock's a gift from four hundred to forty four dollars. How can you not buy it? Well, there's a reason why the stock's at forty four dollars and maybe three years later. And again, I don't really know anything about the company. I think that, you know, I really don't know anything about the fundamentals. But if the stock goes to four or five dollars a share, it just meant that technically versus fundamentally it wasn't a match. And that's unfortunately what we're seeing here with a lot of stocks and a lot of stocks that we saw up last year really ridiculously. Like a name like a foobo, right? I looked at this thing the other day, I go, wait, what three dollars? Don't you this stock was what this stock was what at three? Was it one at sixty bucks? Right. This thing was at sixty two dollars in December. It's a three dollars today. Doesn't mean the stock is oversold. It just means it shouldn't have been there to begin with. So yeah, as much as we talk about a lot of similarities from dot com to twenty twenty one, I think the biggest common denominator is the pullback that happened after. And if you look back at the stocks that did survive the pullback from the dot com name, what do they have in common? Right. Think about what do they have in common? Cisco, Microsoft, right? Microsoft, Cisco, Amazon, right? Amazon, eBay, they all make money, right? Isn't that the whole point? They all make money. So the moral of the story is if you are an investor and you're under water on a lot of these companies, right? Check their, you know, this is where you really start to be a little bit of a technical analysis and start looking at their balance sheet. You know, did the stock warrant going from three dollars to two hundred? Did the stocks fundamentals put in a position that it can rebound? Maybe not this week, maybe not this year, maybe can't rebound in the futures. But if their fundamentals don't match up to to their long term prowess of kind of bubble like status that unfortunately for all the Amazons that survived and the apples and Microsoft and the oracles and the Intel to survive stocks like Etoi's and Spyglass and this one and that one did not. So it's a kind of a shame that this generation is being exposed to what we got exposed to back in mid 2000, 2001. But unfortunately, as we say all the time, if you don't respect history and understand history and embrace history, you are doomed to repeat it. And unfortunately, that is what's happening now. So again, that's the deal, man. That's the deal. Nothing materialistically change. We are still going lower. Again, I do believe and we're seeing this now like once a week. But we know we are seeing a snapback rally at some point during the week. Right. You know, who knows? Maybe it's tomorrow, maybe it's the next day, maybe it's Thursday. At one point, we do get a snapback rally. Unfortunately, a lot of new traders wake up. That's it. That's a generational bottom. That's it. And then three days later, we're back to the all time lows. So don't don't get tricked by don't get tricked by snapback rallies. They're very aggressive. They usually come out of nowhere. The last couple of snapback rallies came at lunchtime, right? Literally at lunchtime and the Fed. If you guys remember the Fed Day last Wednesday, it came literally the last hour, 900 points, literally an hour in the last trading day. And every selloff is a gap down. It's methodical and they're taking turns ripping these stocks apart. And the worst, the fundamentals of a company is the higher probability. It gets cut in half and then cuts in half and then gets cut in half and then gets cut in half and eventually we don't talk about it. Anymore. So going into tomorrow, again, of course, I mean, look, of course, I'm sell buys. I mean, how do you not be sell buys? But again, and I warn and I try to warn everybody pre-market during morning strategy, don't get too aggressive at the open, right? There's definitely names I like and trades I definitely, definitely I'm very interested in, but don't get too aggressive at the open. Like I said, like a minute ago, no matter how aggressive the selling is, as you can see by the charts, no matter how aggressive and there is massive reversals, really, really aggressive reversals. And most important thing is you don't want to get caught in something that is overextended to the downside, because that's going to be the one that's going to have that big aggressive move up. And the last thing you want to do is get spread out, spread out, spread out and be a victim of a really good, aggressive, short covering rally. So that's kind of the game plan going into tomorrow. Look at the names that I really like for tomorrow. I mean, look at the apple and here's one more important. Well, here's one more important note. And I think a lot of you guys who have option scanners will kind of agree with me on this, I think today was the very first day that we saw really big, massive institutional money flow deep out of the money, short term expiration with millions and millions of dollars bet deep out of the money puts. You know, we saw all day today, six and seven figure bets on a couple of weeks out for Apple 147, 145 puts on the video was getting. The video was getting 170 and they killed this thing. It was getting 150s Tesla. We saw a massive buyer come in for the July six hundreds. Right? We saw the 750s will get will get the individual pivots in a second. But we saw some really, really aggressive put buying today. And again, maybe it's something, maybe it's nothing. But again, if you are a long buyer's trader, you know, really, you know, really pay attention to those stats. Again, might not affect you tomorrow. Maybe it will, maybe already has. But today was really the first time that I could see these massive, massive bets with short term expiration. So the way the institutional money flow is coming in, they're not expecting that today was the bottom. So just something to think about. So let's talk about the pivots. Let's talk about the pivots today. Again, some really, really aggressive, you know, just aggressive polls. That's the best way of saying it. Tesla, right? 821 70 is the April 20th lows. If it builds below can see 800. Here is Tesla. I still think Tesla goes lower. Tesla got destroyed, right? Took out the 821 traded down all the way down to 780. This thing confirms today's channels. This thing has a shot to get the 750s this week, because again, they were coming for the 750 and the 740 weekly plus. So Tesla, again, massive, massive move on Tesla. Google, you know, again, we were talking about the earnings lows. Google closed right at the earnings lows. 2250, they were fighting with a buyer all day. But 2250 held twice if it builds below can start a multiple day decline. Here's Google, guys, it hasn't gone yet, right? It hasn't gone yet. But look at this channel here. This thing confirms today's channel tomorrow. I think there's 5800 points in this thing. So definitely, definitely keep an eye on that. TDOC, again, got hit on Friday, confirmed today. I think tomorrow or the next day could test earnings low. I go nice splash on Friday. 32 now becomes a big area. If it confirms down, might finally see the earnings low. So here was 32 on TDOC, right? Here's 32 on TDOC. It went down to about 30 bucks. Again, it's very, very close to its earnings low. Once it gets below that earnings low, it's going to start a next multiple day decline. So keep an eye on that. NVIDIA got massacred 179.90 Fridays. Bottom channel for bills below can flush more. Here was NVIDIA, just an absolute destruction. Here took out this whole channel here, closed right at the lows at 169, 168. This thing looks lower. They were buying really, really deep puts on this thing as well. Netflix 175.80, if it builds below, can see more. Again, they were just going one by one. Netflix, here's a 75.80, right? Here's a 75.80, traded down to 72. This thing just continues to go lower. Again, once it closed below this, and here's my point. Once it closed below the earnings low of 185, it just starts drifting, right? It might not be aggressive every single day, but it starts drifting so far. It's $12 below the earnings low. CTSH, I still like this thing. They held this thing up for whatever reason today. VRSK18340, again, another earnings play. VRSK18340 needs to build. Here is VRSK. Here is the 18340 and went all the way down to 177. This thing still looks lower, which room you still have. This thing gets below 175. This thing is toast. And that is it, right? That is it. Here coming in for the 170 puts. Here comes 756, next support on Tesla. So that's it, right? That's it, guys. So, you know, unfortunately, again, for all you guys who are new to trading in the last three, four years, you know, you hear all the time about people trading in the bear's market. And, you know, until you actually see it, you really can't appreciate what this thing is and what this thing isn't. This isn't a bull market. This isn't that you can just take shots. This isn't a market that you can just throw caution to the wind. There are a lot of head face. There are a lot of aggression cycles. There are spikes, even though they were to big sell buys. But the most important thing is, again, the common denominator is technical analysis, and once we close below the 50 day moving average, until we regain the 50 day moving average, this is going to be the same cycle until it's not. Guys, God bless. My daughter has a little softball game. God's help. I'll see you all tomorrow. Take care.