 Good day fellow investors! I received a lot of comments about gold and how prices have been crashing. So let's discuss what's going on, what's the short term, why are gold prices going down, what can happen in the long term, why to invest in gold, how to invest in gold and how much of your portfolio should be in gold. So let's start with short-term gold price fluctuations, what's impacting debt and then we'll go to central banks long-term picture and then how to invest. Gold fell in the last 60 days from above 1,300 to the current 1,250. Now given that gold is a global thing measured in one currency, the US dollar, the strength of the dollar impacts gold. And over the last 60 days the dollar has appreciated significantly for such a short period of time. Also interest rates weigh on gold because people prefer to be paid while preserving capital. Gold has no yield. So you can look at the short term, the dollar supply demand, a panic, political panic, geopolitical panic would spike gold prices up, strength, more strength in the dollar, gold prices will go lower. I must say that if you are not in the 0.0001% of the population who can handle all of that and you have 20 traders, algos and everything doing that for you, you shouldn't bother with short-term gold price movements. What we can focus on as the only advantage we have as investors is the long-term picture. So let's look at that. This is the main chart we have as long-term investors. This is the golden line and there we have three lines that represent the assets of the European central bank, the red line, the Bank of Japan, the green line and the fat, the blue line. As you can see in the last 10 to 15 years all the assets of those banks increased approximately 4 to 6 times. Consequently gold went from below 400, it was around 300 to 1800, 6 times and now it settled around 1200. So 4 times increase in gold. This tells us that, yes, gold is relatively fixed in supply, we know how much there will be new gold available as you cannot invent a mine overnight and therefore if you want something fixed you have gold. And here comes the long-term gold investment thesis. What will central banks do in the next recession? Because recessions always come and then they will do the same thing they did in the last 10 years because it worked well. I see so many alpharomials being purchased everywhere around new cars, everybody's happy, everybody has a job, everything is good. So the monetary easing worked well even if they increased the amount of money by 5 times. However next time they will do it again and then what will happen with gold? Gold will probably not exactly in time but over the next 5-10 years will follow the increase in their balance sheets. This means that gold might again double or triple in the spike in the hype in the highest panic it might also go much much higher. And that's what something you want to be exposed with part of your portfolio. Another reason why there is a probability that there will be more monetary easing is debt. If you look at the federal debt, the blue line, the european debt, the red line and the japanese debt, the green line, you can see that all those debt levels are just spiking spiking spiking. And how do you pay back that or how do you lessen the burden of it by printing money and raising inflation? Who wins then? Gold. So there are very strong positives over the long term for gold. But what if central banks manage to keep the situation as is for another 3 years, for another 4 years? People will forget about this story, will think ok everything is going good central banks will control everything forever and gold might drop to 1800, 600, 400. And that is something you have to be ready for. Now I see a lot of people invested 40-50% in gold but you have to see are you ready if gold drops 50%. Gold miners then will drop 95%. So that's something we have to keep in mind ok gold might spike but gold might also drop. And there is another cost to gold. Gold doesn't pay a dividend and gold has no interest on it. So you are again renouncing a yield somewhere else to hold this gold. So gold is not really an investment is a hedge against stupid monetary policy which will eventually come. So exposure is key. Now how to invest? Let's say the next monetary easing round comes money is doubled and gold also doubles. If you own physical gold let's say 10% of your portfolio all else fixed it will go up to 20%. So you are risking 5% if gold halves and you can gain 10% of your portfolio if gold goes up. So it's already positive risk reward. Think there is also positive there. Depending on how aggressive you are as an investor and what are your other hedges. I prefer miners because they are producing something gold and in some cases other things they are much more leveraged. But this is a treacherous game and you should really know what you're doing there. In the video about Seth Klarman we shortly discussed Nova Gold and this is just an example not a recommendation in the next few months I'll be digging deep into the gold mining sector as I'll prepare a proper hedge for my model portfolio and you can follow that on YouTube and of course on my research platform in that. Back to Nova Gold if gold prices double Nova Gold's net present value increases 20 times. So let's say the stock increased 10 times. I can lose everything so my loss with this if it goes to 600 you can count the price at 0. So the loss is 100% but the upside is 1000% and for me this is better than 50% and upside 100%. Why are miners more leveraged to gold? Let's see. The cost to mine let's say is 1200 per ounce. The gold price is 1250 per ounce. The profit is then 50. If gold prices jump to 2500 the profit taxes royalties increased cost blah blah blah but just as an example 1300 so the profit is up 25 times. The stock consequently will also be up 10 to 20 times. If you want to own gold miners deep research but these are the keys. You have cash flow now low cost production not so much upside you have huge reserves higher cost to produce in the future so huge future potential that's also mine like Nova Gold high leverage versus low leverage high leverage higher costs so much more elastic to the price of gold you have special situation takeovers long-term investment short-term investment so there is so much every miner is different to know so if you want to dig deep into miners there's a lot a lot of work and I'll finish with the key when investing in gold. We know that central banks have been printing money all over the world but there is something we have to always keep in mind. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent so always think okay what if I am wrong can I take that bet can I rebalance my portfolio and what happens to me if I am wrong or if my timing you might be right by your timing might be wrong what happens if gold goes to 600 so gold is a long-term hedge short-term anything can happen nobody knows so focus on those 10 times increases for 100 losses or 50 losses for 100% increases and see how that fits your portfolio. I'm looking forward to your comments looking forward to see you in the next video.