 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the morning market kickoff with your host Tommy O'Brien. Good morning, everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, company alive from TFNN, 8.30 a.m. Tuesday morning, 60 minutes ago until the opening ballot. We got markets in negative territory quite a day yesterday, quite a final 15 minutes to the market. S&P's trading up by about 20 points in the final rush toward the closing bell yesterday. Right now you got S&P's futures negative by eight points trading at 3,039, looking at the NQ's minus 18 at 99.56, the Dow negative 87 points, 25,411. Quite a day for the Dow yesterday, you had Boeing going from about $170 to $195 almost, that putting the biggest bid in the Dow in terms of an acceleration. Gold contract this morning, flat hanging at about 1780, seems like a level gold's been comfortable at recently. You've got oil, negative 66 cents at 3904, the silver contract up five pennies at 1811, and notes and bonds, some higher price and low yield, marginal action, but the 10-year up three ticks at 139.13 and the 30-year up 14 ticks at 179.15. So we'll start things off, we'll start off with the chart of the S&P's. We opened Sunday night 2983, you see the acceleration, we zoom in on the opening bell, you dive lower for 15 minutes and then the run higher begins. We were trading at 2990 and you finished out the day at about 3,050, so you're talking about a solid 2% from the lows we had right around the open to where we closed the action at 4pm yesterday. You see we kind of hang out at this level right until about 1am Eastern time, you dip down to 3,030, you trade up to as high as 3,055 folks, that's 25 S&P points. You're talking about 7 tenths percent, 8 tenths percent, but since 730, the last hour, we've actually given up almost 16 S&P points currently trading 3,039. We talked about the Dow, jumping over to the Dow briefly, there's your acceleration yesterday from 24,743, the Dow dips lower briefly on the open as well, and then we trade from under 25,000, finished the date around 25,5 just under that level 25,372. Quite the day yesterday as well, look at this charge higher from 4 in the morning at 3760, made it above 3980 almost to 40 within 11 pennies, 3989, we've backed off a bit, we get EIA numbers tomorrow, natural gas, let's jump to because talk about some volatility on the Monday session. Natural gas from 7 in the morning trades from under 160 to yesterday reaching a high of 174 and that's where we're trading at right now in natural gas. Jumping around to some of the other stories out there going on, you have Chairman Powell. He will be testifying today testimony ahead, and where is he in front of I believe? Ann Mnuchin, House Financial Services Committee, 12.30 p.m. That begins. Our man Basil Chapman will be live on the air. We'll see what he has to say, the House Financial Services Committee, the joint hearing will address the Fed and Treasury's response to the coronavirus pandemic. In a remarks he'll deliver Tuesday Powell said uncertainty reigns over the outlook for the economy in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. So that begins at 12.30, his remarks already out there, we'll see how that hits the market in terms of if he takes questions and what those questions or answers may be. One thing I found particularly interesting, nope, that's not it, where's my, there it is. So Goldman Sachs saying a national mask mandate could slash infections and save the economy from a quote 5% hit. You're seeing it folks, I think it was New Jersey yesterday, abandoned indoor dining. They're planned to open that because some of the states have already opened with the accelerated Florida being one of them, indoor dining, Texas, California, Arizona, Nevada, all of the hottest of spots, but a lot of states 20 plus and almost approaching 30 states now with rising trends over the last 14 days. We're going to jump into some of those numbers after the first break. But Goldman out here quite a number, listen to me say it. So their chief economist said a team investigated the link between masks and COVID. Goldman says a national mask mandate could raise the percentage of people who wears masks by 15 percentage points and cut the daily growth rate of cases by 1 percentage point to 0.6%. That means it will go from 1.6% to 0.6%. That's quite a reduction. And those results would then translate to a GDP impact and found the mask mandate could substitute for lockdowns that would subtract nearly 5% from growth. Stark numbers out there, we'll see how that plays out. In terms of playing out, we got four months until the election and these stories are going to start gaining steam as you have Trump versus Biden. The story out here that broke Friday in terms of Trump being briefed on Russia providing bounties for US soldiers. Trump out there saying he never heard anything about it. I don't know how you don't hear anything about it folks. That just doesn't happen. The reports keep coming out, substantiated by almost every news organization that the president did earlier than even anticipated. Written briefing in February about that at a time when the president's trying to bring along Russia to G7 meetings and include them with this going on for our men and women. So that's going to play out folks. The election is going to play out. It's remarkable that we're about to be in July and we're about four months out from the general. And it's just creeping up because there's so much else going on. But the market is going to start to react to these as well. In terms of political, China, they're getting political for sure. Controversial national security law for Hong Kong. So the top decision making body in China's parliament, they passed the contentious national security law for Hong Kong. And let's see. So it came ahead of tomorrow's anniversary making Hong Kong's hand over from the UK to mainland China, July 1st, 1997. And yeah, so you have the sole Hong Kong delegate to the committee confirmed on Tuesday that the law was passed. It came one day before. And critics say the new law will undermine the autonomy promised to the special administrative region for 50 years until 2047. Folks, that's 27 years down the line. For people out there, if you have a kid today for all those people in Hong Kong, if you have young children, you're probably coming to the realization that they are going to grow up in basically China. Because by the time they reach, if you have a kid today, they're going to be 27 years old, middle of their 20s. And you're going to be completely handed over to China with Xi in there forever. And you're going to see this escalate as well. And I believe this, Republicans and Democrats, to both their credit, pretty rough on China as they deserve to be in my opinion. So Amazon, they just keep climbing. The brand value now topping $400 billion. Talk about an acceleration, folks. $450.9 billion, increasing its worth for that brand by almost a third. So Apple came in second on the list, $352 billion, Microsoft 326. At a time when technology is just rocking, those brands worth more than their weight in gold. And how about Shell? Talk about some tough woes in the oil sector. Shell, they're going to write down $22 billion with a B of assets in the second quarter. They send a statement to investors that had renewed a significant portion of its business, given the impact of coronavirus. And they're writing down $22 billion. And what else we have? We'll finish up this segment. How about Uber? They didn't quite get Grubhub, so they're going after potentially Post-Mate. But Post-Mate might go public. We'll see what that goes. But Uber, positive probably on that 2950. We closed out about yesterday. We're up about $1 to $30.67 on Uber shares, as they looked to maybe purchase one of those competitors. Post-Mates, one of the early ones into that sector in terms of food delivery. But they are the number four player in that market, so maybe not as many antitrust concerns as original with that Grubhub purchase. Stay tuned, folks. S&P is now negative 11. We get the Dow off 121. Right back in three minutes. TFNN has just launched their July 4th Tiger Dollar sale. For one week only, we've doubled all the bonuses where you can now get up to a 20, 30, or even a 40% bonus on your Tiger Dollar purchase. Tiger Dollars are good on all TFNN newsletters, webinars, and trading services and never expire. For all the details and to get your Tiger Dollars before this sale ends, Monday, July 6th, visit the front page of TFNN.com today. As of January 7th. The gold reports a comprehensive look at the metal sector, as well as the markets that move gold, which is the currency and bond markets. News subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee, so you have nothing to lose. Every Monday morning, I publish the gold report with coverage of gold, silver, bonds, the XAU, HUI, GDX, as well as more than 30 different mining equities. To see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the gold report, sign up now by visiting TFNN.com. Don't miss out on the next great gold trade. Sign up today. Objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing. The prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares. To obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus, please contact direction shares at 866-476-7523. The prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, four-side fund services, LLC. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV for the latest market information. Welcome back, folks. Right now, S&P is negative by about 10 points. Jumping back to what else we have going on for Tuesday trading. You have Fauci and other top US health officials. They're going to be testifying today. So White House health advisor, Dr. Fauci and top US health agency leaders set to testify Tuesday morning before the Senate Health Education, Labor and Pensions Committee. One day after CDC officials said the coronavirus is spreading too rapidly. So I'd seen this article yesterday if you hadn't seen it, folks. I mean, way too much virus to control the pandemic as cases surge across the country. The idea was to get things low enough where you could test and trace and tell people when they're exposed to quarantine. You can't do that when you have numbers, folks, that are approaching a level of about 40,000 cases a day. When you think about the contract tracing that would have to take place in terms of every single person contacting every single person that they were in touch with, let alone that rising number. The one thing encouraging, the decreasing death rates for sure in Florida. We have the average age of the person infected being 34, I believe, as of last count. So that is affecting things dramatically. The only thing I would point to is a potential rise in this as delayed data, deaths, lagging cases. When you start to get a level of 10,000 cases a day, even if a majority of those are not going to be extreme cases that require whether it's hospital visits, doctor visits, ICU, etc. You're still dealing with so many numbers that it could begin to creep into more high risk people. And that is what the worry may be out there. Okay, in terms of other headlines out here I had going on. This one was kind of cool, I was reading this morning. So an opinion piece from Bloomberg, but talking about basically active management. And they had some cool statistics in here in terms of performance of active managers and how that plays out. So marketing for mutual funds always carries the disclaimer that passive performance, no guarantee of future returns. We're all pretty familiar with that phrase. But the degree to which passive performance fails to persist over time goes far beyond the ups and downs of the market. So of the funds that made it into the top 25% of returns in the five years, okay? So your top 25% over a period of 2010 to 2014, only 21% of them managed to stay in the top quartile for the following five years. By comparison, 29% of the top former performers switched and started investing a different style. So basically they're saying like they volunteered to change their strategy, even realizing that that was not possible. Only one fifth of the top quartile, I'll get there, domestic funds, stayed in the top quartile, right? So you're talking about less than almost a 25% chance if you invest in a fund that is in the top quartile over a five year period, that over that next five year period, there's less than a 25% chance. Really, it's about a 20% chance that you will again be in the top quartile of performing funds. So over the years, mutual funds marketing has generally evolved from boasting up about past returns, has moved on from publishing their returns, and the S&P which uses data, okay, let's get into what they're talking about. Some of these stats, the road from here, let me scroll down. Come on, where's my statistics I had? I'll have to maybe pull it up at the second break, because they talked about the performance basically of each one and how they do. Okay, here we go. Sorry for the pause as I get into here. What it really talks about is when you start getting into something like the Russell 2000 or small caps, it's super important. Over the years, mutual fund marketing generally evolved from boasting. Let's see. Alright, I'll have to jump around. I thought I had this all. The case for active management and government bonds looks much stronger, and this is where so 61% of the top quartile managers in that same year period hold on to that position from 2015 to 2020. So if you're talking about an active management government bond fund and you choose one of the top performers that happened to be from 2010 to 2014, there's so much that goes into this though, especially in bonds, right? Bonds have been a one-way trade to higher price and lower yield since the late 80s. Equities, not so much. So this is good news as indexing and fixed income tends to involve giving more money to borrowers with more bonds outstanding. The problem grows more acute. Here we go. This is what I wanted to get into for small cap equities for which the case for indexing is weaker and where there should be a clear role for active managers conducting their own research and spotting diamonds in the rough. But the slings and arrows have been particularly brutal. So small cap managers who finished in the top quartile for 2014 to 2016 far more likely to appear in the bottom quartile for the next three years, 2017 to 2019, then in the top quartile again. So only 1.6%. Where this used things folks though is that 2014 and 2016 were different from 2017 and 2018. I mean, we had a run here to put things in context. Let's put this on a daily for the S&Ps and we'll go back. Now we got to put it on a monthly, of course. Zoom it in. So they were mentioning in that article, 2014-16, which is 2014 here begins, excuse me, 2014 is right here, 2015, 2016. And then look at the run though it had from 2017, 18 and 19. The beginning of 2017, the S&Ps basically started about 2250 and ended 2019 at 3250 versus 2014 started at about 1750 and only ended at 21. Still decent return over three years, but you can see the difference in the market which is obviously going to affect different managers. But it was just interesting because we've all looked probably if you're in any funds, right? How have you done compared to your peers? What quartile are you in? Are you a top performer, active manager? And it's really interesting to see how quickly you can go from that top quartile to maybe the bottom quartile or just how interesting almost 30% of active fund managers are changing what they're doing over that period of time, maybe realizing themselves that if it did work or if it did not work, things are going to change in the future. Interesting nonetheless as we get into it. All right, checking around some of the Fang stocks. Tesla, how about Tesla ringing in that bell about 10 years ago? Tesla, this morning back above 1,000 at about 1,007 Amazon shares, 2684 holding well in that range, Microsoft shares, 197.97 down a bit from 198.44 yesterday, Boeing, the big flyer yesterday up to 195 from about 170 in the close of Friday this morning given back some of those gains back to about 189 on Boeing shares, Netflix, 448 from 432 yesterday. And how about the social media trade yesterday? Facebook going from 206 pre-market. I mean, we opened the day yesterday at 207.11. And look at that closing bar to a high of 220. Facebook, back this out again. They got some problems in their hands with many more advertisers leaving or pausing, but Tom and I were talking about on the 10 o'clock show yesterday when push comes to shove. Advertisers need to spend budgets. They need to reach people. There's probably no better way than Facebook right now. And if they still have active Facebook pages and they're just pausing things, maybe not the most meaningful way and Facebook might rebound. All right, check it out on the front page of TFNN, Short and Trading Week. We got July 4th coming up on Saturday. We're closed on Friday. We got a Tiger Dolls sale running folks. You can double your bonus, a 20, 30, or 40% bonus on whatever you spend. This deal runs through Monday. Check it out on the front page of TFNN. 500, you get 600, 1,000, you get 1,300, 1,500, you get 2,100. Tiger Dolls can be used for any newsletter. If you're a current subscriber, it's a no-brainer. If you're going to subscribe, lock them in. They never expire, folks. That deal runs this week only. Check it out on the front page of TFNN.com. Get those Tiger Dolls. We'll be right back. Back in the day, I joined the Hotel California in 2006 and, like many of you, was drawn in by as well as whatever you think about, you bring about whatever you focus on grows. You see, I believe that everything in life happens for us, not to us. And Tom ignited the fire within me to want to learn how to master the markets. So how did I go from knowing nothing about technical analysis to becoming the number one market timer for the S&P 500 in 2018 and the number two market timer in 2019? Simply put, I hired coaches with a proven track record, which led me to a whole new set of tools that I created to interpret the message of buyers and sellers. I would love the opportunity to teach you this award-winning set of tools and help you improve your market timing. You can test drive my newsletter service, Mastering Probabilities, for the next 30 days with no risk to you. Plus, you'll gain access to archive workshops that will take you step-by-step through my system. Sign up today by going to the home page of TFNN.com and selecting Mastering Probability in the newsletter tab. If you haven't checked out the newsletters page of TFNN.com, what are you waiting for? All of the TFNN newsletters are informative, up-to-date, affordable, and a must-have for every trader looking to gain a competitive informational edge in today's markets. TFNN newsletters cover every aspect of the markets to offer you the very latest in market news. Plus, new subscribers get to test drive our newsletters risk-free for 30 days. From all aspects of the markets, including stocks, bonds, metals, commodities, and tech, there's a newsletter to fit your needs exclusively from TFNN. Stay informed each day you trade and get the competitive edge that will help you stay ahead of the game. Visit our newsletters page by going to TFNN.com and click the newsletters button near the top of the page. TFNN.com, educating investors. We take it every morning. Primal Edge, formulated and approved by Nico & Page, of living a primal lifestyle. Buy it today for just $89. Click on the Primal Edge banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV for the latest market information. Now we're looking at an S&P down 10 points at 3037. NASDAQ futures down 29. The Dow off 100. We've got the 10-year yield right now sitting at 0.625%. We're looking at a gold contract basically flat at 1780. And jumping around, how about those banks? Where's my headline? There it is. So talking about dividends, Tom talked about this on his program a couple of days ago. Talking about Wells Fargo at their current level was pushing something like a 7% yield on their dividend versus the other banks nowhere near and way above. And it comes out of course that Wells Fargo, they're going to be cutting their dividend after those stress tests. So you had each of the banks in terms of Goldman, they got commentary from Goldman, Morgan Stanley City, Wells Fargo though, not quite determined yet, but we expect our second quarter results will include an increase in the allowance for credit losses substantially higher than the increase in the first quarter. Credit losses allowance, they need to cover them and they're coming. Wells Fargo continues to have one of the strongest capital positions relative to regulatory minimums among the world's financial services firms, demonstrated by our stress tests. Maybe that's because they have to, because they've done so many nefarious things that they got more regulations than most banks do. These are certainly extremely challenging times for many and we remain committed to supporting our customers and communities. Nonetheless, they're cutting the dividend, all the other banks keeping their dividend where they are jumping around some of those banks, Wells Fargo. Down to 2521 yesterday, really, I mean, we were just at 2750, but some of the other banks, Goldman Sachs, look at that drop from 208 down to 188. Friday, we're currently trading at about 193. Bank of America shares 2332 so far this morning. City shares 5031 and Morgan Stanley will round it out at about 4709. They've had some volatility recently. Speaking of volatility, we'll check in on the VIX as we come into almost 9 a.m., 30 minutes to go, 3235 on the volatility index as it seems pretty comfortable in between about the 30 to 40 range. And again, the rule of 16 on the VIX, right? VIX 16 means you're expecting a move of a half a percent every one out of three days. A VIX of 32, a 1% move every one out of three days. And we're getting those 1% moves, if not 2%, 3%. Stay tuned, folks, our man Larry Pes vento coming up live next with Trade What You See.