 Welcome traders to this week's live market analysis session with me, Patrick Munley. Before we get going here, 2pm British summertime. If I can just do a quick audio check if you can hear me loud and clear, and you can see the Tick Mill welcome screen. You just type a Y in the chat box so that I know we are we're good to go. Thanks very much. Okay, let's get going. Before we start, as always, want to adhere to the risk disclaimer. Most importantly really for today's discussion is to understand that the views expressed by me here today are solely mine. They're not indicative of or representative of those held by Tick Mill UK or Tick Mill Europe. Also just some housekeeping I guess. I'm going to run through a bunch of charts that I'm looking at and potential setups that I'm tracking at the moment. If you have any questions with respect to anything discussed today, or you would like me to take a look at a chart that I don't cover in my deck. Just make a note of any questions and save those to the end. I'll open it up for a brief Q&A and we can cover off those at the end. Just briefly for those who are here for the first time, my name is Patrick Munley. After I graduated from Kingston College London, I joined a Sydney PLC Consulting firm. I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found and exit a consulting starter focused on C-Suite's executive search for technology businesses. Having a front row seat to the dot com bubble, witnessing people make and lose the fortune of the markets, but literally at times overnight I decided to explore my curiosity for markets. I had some capital to play with and some time in my hands. I started day trading the S&P 500 or probably more appropriately day gambling and after some early beginner's luck, I racked up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginner's luck went out and as the market phase changed, I began to average down giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six figure financial hit to my personal capital. To say this was a gut wrenching and sobering experience is another statement. I had to really stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the markets. So I decided to get serious about trading and sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record working with my mentor for a period of 18 months to two years. There was a time during which I was not just my technical game, research developed extensively back and forward tested strategies that crucially suited my personality, all of which were underpinned by a regular risk management approach. But most importantly, during the period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game. And probably most importantly, I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal oriented individual focused purely on financial gains to becoming a process oriented individual. What does that actually mean? Well, it means I start focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process orientated and have a professional trading mindset and you understand the true nature of trading being a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities. You lose the emotional investment and that hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or small string of trades my focus is on the next hundred trades, because if I do, if I focus on excellence in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. Since 2013 I've also been managing investor capital through a managed accounts service, delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multimillion dollar portfolio. In 2010 I've also mentored hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to reach consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I'm engaged in some other market orientated projects and resident market experts exclusively providing market and trade analysis to Tick Milk, providing an in-depth daily market outlook breaking of fundamental and technical drivers for the day ahead. I also provide daily technical trade setups for two or three markets on a daily basis. I also run Tick Milk's rapidly growing Emanee strategy group, where I provide daily and specific daily trade plan with trade updates, since its inception in April I've delivered over 850 points of upside. My other passion project is leading trader education for a premier trading education brand called FX CareerSwap, offering development and funding to retail trading talent. At FX CareerSwap we don't just develop retail traders, market and trading strategy knowledge. We work on mindset development through our structured program that culminates in managing the firm's capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit share basis. Most recently I've been involved in developing the Trader Blueprint Strategy Group, which is a professional trading community where traders of all experienced levels can access daily institutional insights from tier one investment banks and market strategy teams. There are regular market bulletins within depth positioning and sentiment analysis, actionable real-time chart analysis with daily setups and trading updates from our expert traders. We've live trader education sessions helping traders to develop a professional consistent approach to navigating the markets and the mental mind games that must be mastered if you're going to make it as a pro. The Trader Blueprint Strategy Group actually we're offering a two week trial to that group. If you use that URL there, you can access or request a two week trial. We're also offering the same with the E-mini Strategy Group as well, so you can use that link to request membership. And if you're interested in finding out more about FX CareerSwap, you can call the trade desk in London there or drop them an email and I'm sure they will respond with relevant information as quickly as possible. So that gives you a flavor of where I'm coming from and now let's move into some of these charts. I'm just going to adjust my screen. Before I jump into the technical charts, what I actually wanted to do first of all, there was an interesting note out from Citi this morning from their FX team, which I want to just take a quick look at here. And what they have identified, what they're basically reviewing is their dollar bear call, basically their dollar short call, which obviously in light of very recent market action had been under pressure. And this chart here is basically the US 10 year yield, nominal versus real yield, overlaid with the dollar index. And what they're highlighting here is that this divergence, normally when it does occur to this degree, normally the gap closes. So they're looking for the dollar to basically trade down to $89.25 would be the level where they're looking for as a minimum downside objective. They also look at the overlay, the 10 year nominal minus breakeven yield over the DXY with a 16 month flag, so that's where you can see the two charts there. The logic for this is that the FedE easing to zero and QE, lower nominal and real yields and stealing curves set the store for future direction for the dollar with a bit of a lag. So again, what they're suggesting here is that the divergence should draw the dollar to the downside as it has done in previous sections. And so what they're saying is that this chart suggests that we could should see a much lower dollar as we head into 2022. And on the daily timeframe, they're looking at a potential head and shoulders scenario breaking down here, and I moved back to test 92 of support on the long term charts continue to look structurally bearish. So the picture continues to look like a major double top and DXY neckline of this pattern is 88.25 and the monthly close below if seen to their mind would suggest to move as low as 2011 below 73. And the dollar last year posted an outside bearish year as most of you will remember I posted charts on that. And this is the pattern they're looking at the double top here. So if we can get a close to 88.25 I think we've got significant room to the downside. This all fits in with their structural long term down trend of low lows and lower highs for the last 43 years on the on the DXY characterised by a trend of low highs down to the last 43 years posted marginal low lows and then the prior cycle lasted period of about seven years so if we jump to the chart you can see exactly what it is they they're looking at there for the dollar so they're looking for a dollar to to trend lower over these into 2024. So this is the euro chart which I posted back in the last year showing the outside bullish outside year for euro last year. So, let's jump into some charts now. And we will start, let's actually start with that, that DXY. What I've been looking for is ultimately the dollar index to test this big quality objective 93 73 there to the upside. We were holding this trend line support here we broke through it last night obviously with pal we break so to speak on the on the tapering tool and putting the focus back on employment. If we if we start to roll over here then the next level of interest going to be the 91 51 we could still then put in a tradeable bounce there to get that to test of the 93 73 level, and really at this stage. What would I need to see to, to really get excited about the potential for the downside continuation is we need to take out this trend, this pitchfork support area so the moment that's coming in around the 91 handle so we can see close below there really to get further upside and suggest that the the trend to the downside is is under resumption. So, just a little bit cautious here on getting to bearish at current levels when we can still see one more popped complete the sequence here into that 93 73 that's going to be a pivotal test for the for the and and obviously then that feeds into the euro we'll just take a look at the euro whilst we're talking about those two. So I am long the euro on that nice outside reversal candle yesterday. And again I'm not getting too carried away here because I think we could still see looking at the momentum here we're pretty overboard. So I'm going to be paying close attention to how we trades at this 119 handle because I think we can still see another pullback here test that 118 30 areas support buyers step in there then we would have an equality objective putting us into the top side of the trade and I'm going to talk here at well towards 120 is the upside so I'm risk free here on my entry in this trade and I'm just going to see we could extend if we can get through that 119 then I would anticipate this type of pattern developing get this move straight up into the 120 and then we set up the potential for an inverse head and shoulders scenario to to develop but for now focus is going to be on how we have prices respond at this this first 119. If we do get a pullback we look for support into the 1830 as as the next pivotal area in terms of the in terms of the euro. Let's go back first of all now just update where we are in terms of these equity markets I think we're coming into a very interesting period with these global equity markets, the dot the S&P found support at the prior highs at the 43 88 level. Once we hold here I'm looking for one more high basically to complete a sequence thinking about 44 37 to 4492 into the top side third test of this sending. I'm sorry ending diagonal pattern that we're potentially trading in here so any move into this area I'm paying very close attention to watching for bearish reversal patterns to set short positions for what has a tendency to be a pretty volatile period during during August so then I've been looking for a three wave pullback and certainly we can think about this area at 42 30 as a logical area of support to be tested, and then we will see how the next phase is going to develop. Now stack is in a similar situation. I'm looking for one more high here in the NASDAQ to complete to complete this sequence and the area of interest to me at the moment is this 15,000 300 certainly going to be very interested in paying very close attention on both the daily and the intraday time frames, trying to get to see from front run a potential daily reversal into this 15,000 300 zone. And again what we anticipate then is a three wave corrective pattern, and I've been looking really for it to replicate the this type of price action so we get up into that 15,300. I'm going to be looking for short positions, talking move back into retest, essentially 14,000 as as the next area of support to the downside so that what is it's also on my radar. Now, I updated this earlier this week said, okay, looking for the Dow to make one more high here to complete this interim third wave of bigger weekly cycle that we've been in so you can see we have that initial move out of the of the those there. And that's subdivided into five wave ABC correction, we're now in 123, we've got a potential interest for so I'm looking for a fifth wave extension here, ideally to retest this trendline that it broke out of as resistance up into the 600 zone. And from there again, with this great momentum divergence we've got in play, I'm looking for bearish reversal patterns, and I think we're going to move back down, certainly to test 33,000, maybe this broadening top pattern scenario plays out we're going to retest that 2300 before the next leg to the upside which will also be complete then the weekly cycle from those pandemic loads and from there we can see a more meaningful corrective phase develop, but still I'm tactically looking for short opportunities here, but structurally this remains a bold market and I'll be looking to buy the next three wave corrective pattern for new highs to develop into year end is the strategy there. I think this one is trying to try to hold on here, I'm as we hope as we're trading below this 29,468, the quality objective is 25,900. What I ideally I'd like to see is this Nikkei getting test this trendline resistance again, yet we've also got weekly range resistance there at 28,475. If we didn't get into that area, what should bearish reversal patterns to set short positions, and I did the sequencing would be great here is if we get that test into this zone, or maybe we extend higher and we test the descending trendline resistance either either one of those two areas. And then Nikkei at the point at which we're making new highs in the Nasdaq and the S&P 500. That would give great synchronicity and cycles here for the Nikkei then to sell off to test the gold objective and for those and then for the S&P and the Nasdaq sell off. By the time the Nikkei gets to this target, I would anticipate that the correction in the Nasdaq and the S&P should also be completing then, and this is going to be a major point of interest because this could set up then the next leg of upside in all equity markets really. So this is going to be a pivotal period for the Nikkei and the US equity markets as well are the ones I'm tracking. And obviously the VIX is still a hot story here. And it seems to be tracking quite nicely this consolidation that we, oh sorry, this prior period of spike in the VIX, which was also August of 2020. And you can see the extent to the upside, the scale obviously slightly different here but the pattern looks similar at this stage so we look for some consolidation and then a pop in August to the upside. And that would be when we get that low in the new, we should have a new high in equity markets during this consolidation period, and then we get the pop in the VIX which sends the, we should see equity markets trading lower. Don, we've just talked about 10 year yields obviously important to keep an eye on these at the moment. A lot of price action has been driven by the, a lot of price action in terms of forex markets has been driven by the yields. I've shown this chart before but we'll just update it here. You can see we're mimicking the periods summer to 2017. So what I'd anticipate is, once we hold this channel, I'll be looking for the yields to make one more low, and then for us to look at the extension to the upside into the back end of this year and early 2022. The Fed should at a minimum, we would anticipate be tapering, and that should, that should see these yields pop. And so, again, we have the Jackson Hole Symposium, where the Global Central Bankers gather the great and good end of August. And so I'd like to see yields put in a low there, and then we could see a rallying yields into the, into the back end of the year. Long gold, as how disappointed the markets last night with a nice bullish setup, and I was looking for the break of the trend line we've got that now. And some objective, certainly want to see test of 1844, ideally now on route to test 1871 to the upside there in gold is, is what I'm looking for risk pre position running there. Pivotal test coming for silver here the descending trend channel prior sending trend line support to active resistance, see how silver trades into 2586 area. We get through there and then we can start to think about 2730s, this descending trend line resistance, but we'll see, obviously, silver to larger gold at the moment, but it's going to be a pivotal test to keep an eye on crude oil. Looking for, looking for a test here at the 78.6% retracement so it's that 7444 and then watching for bearish reversal patterns to ultimately get a test this major sending trend line support from the pandemic lows there, before we put in a meaningful load to get a second run then at the top side of the channel and thinking about prices up towards 8086 dollars there in terms of crude oil. So we'll see looking for bearish reversal patterns at 70, just above 74 and then looking for a 66 test before, before we try and make another room higher. Bitcoin posted this one. A couple of, well, last week, or was it the week before as a chart here technical setup. I was looking for two key areas basically we either take took out this trend line resistance or this support if we took out the sport I was looking at 20k. We took out trend line resistance on the upside I was looking for to just achieve that target now consolidating here. So we'll see how we trade at this descending trend line resistance from the highs there because we could still see, we can still see another load to the downside if that holds, if we consolidate it here, and get a pullback to test this 36,000 as support. So the bullish scenario will be we trade in here test this trend descending trend line resistance to pull back but hold the 36,200 area as support that could then set the next leg to the upside to mountain assault on 50k. Ethereum, similar idea, hasn't made quite as much progress as Bitcoin but again if we consolidate here now we pull back and test 2094 or 2090 areas support, then there's still a chance that Ethereum pops and we get going to move up into 2889 on the dollar you won testing pivotal support here now looking at this trend line, if we take this trend line out, then the next area of focus is going to be a potential inverse head and shoulder scenario with a test back down to that 640 handle, but if we can hold there, then that will set up an equality objective that will put us back through 658 on the upside and and back into, then back into a more constructive structure. But if we fail to hold this 640 support then we could be looking for new lows in the dollar line and obviously that will add pressure to the dollar index. The dollar yen. Solidating really as we hold one 1072 I'm still looking for 10858 without the dollar and obviously trades to degree and well, there are periods when it's highly correlated periods and it's less correlated that the moment you can see the similarities in terms of dollar yen and 10 years until we get some more distinct tapering talk from the from power, and I think this one's pretty much shopping in a range. The Swiss is testing it's a quality objective key test here for the Swiss see we get a bullish reversal pattern here from this 90 70 get a close back through the pitchfork here. So somewhere above 90 120, then that could be an opportunity on on the long side of the Swiss, otherwise, what we can conceive of BC here developing. So we can go through the love some of the lull in August. We could be then thinking about this type of price action playing out over here so we can be in for a bit of consolidation here before the next move is decided. We can protest of the this trend line here on 2370 and then the potential for an inverse and shoulder scenario to play out there in the loony. So we have this type of structure. And then we take off to the outside in terms of dollar CAD. We can see this is a pivotal test here down into the 12370s. Otherwise, we have technically complete in the quality objective, and we could be thinking about you know, if buyers don't step in and defend that 12335 zone. Getting the pool back here so we'll see now if we can hold these this area at 135 29 from get bullish reversal patterns here, then I've been looking for some upside here in terms of the in terms of the same single dollar euro just talked about your again, held the symmetry support and trying to take out the descending trend line was distance we get through there. But we can start to think about 131 20s and up into monthly range resistance at 132 60 for your EM. Let's see what I would do on time. Okay, a couple minutes. Thank you for watching sterling in here pivotal test we've got a couple of these sterling crosses and the major sitting at pivotal resistance areas here. I've been watching for bearish reversal patterns I think we can see a pullback here, certainly in the, the cable and sterling interest here and what you're going to watch very closely how we trade could be setting in head and shoulders top scenario here. So this is going to be key key test was sterling again 153 70s I'm going to be looking at that. Also on the four hour time frames and see if we get get an opportunity to do something on the short side there to test this head and shoulders scenario. I've been there for just under 30 minutes, didn't get chance to go through all the charts I had, but you get an idea of what it is I'm looking at and basically I'm stalking equity indexes for a new high and a fade. I've long the euro short dollar obviously at this stage, and I'm long gold, but I am watching sterling now at some key levels here as a potential opportunity to fade some of this strength we've seen. Yeah, so that pretty much brings you up to speed with where I'm at so I'll briefly open the floor here for some questions. Hello. Any other any questions. I'll also just was where I'm waiting to see a post the links for. This is the link here for the e-mini strategy group. I'll also post the link for the. Second here. This is the link for the trader blueprint strategy group you can request a two week trial. If I can find that there we go, that's the one is the link for. Here's the two groups I referenced at the beginning here and you can request access for a trial by by using either of those links. Okay equally if you don't have a question it's helpful for me if you type an N in the chat box so I know we're all on the same page and I've done a relatively good job of explaining what it is I'm seeing. Good stuff. Okay, if there aren't any questions, I'm going to wrap this one up here. Thanks very much for your time. I hope this stuff helps. Take it easy.